Modelling succession of Eastern Canadian mixedwood forest

The succession of a mixed species stand of the Acadian Forest was simulated by adopting an approach taken by Botkin et al. (1972) (JABOWA) and later modified by Shugart and West (1977) (FORET). The model simulates the dynamic aspects of successional behaviour of the stand by projecting the current stage of vegetation composition (size of each individual of each species present on a 1/12 ha plot) with an element of randomness. The growth of each tree is modeled as a function of its size (represented by its diameter at breast height (dbh), height and leaf area index), the climate, the tree's tolerance to shade and the competition for available resources and space. Stand aboveground biomass (metric ton/ha), leaf area index, number of trees/ha and species composition of the stand were simulated under seven different conditions: (a) normal treatment, (b) increasing biomass maximum 30%, (c) decreasing biomass maximum 30%, (d) increasing degree-days 30%, (e) decreasing degree-days 30%, (f) increasing light extinction coefficient 30% and (g) decreasing light extinction coefficient 30%. Under the first set of conditions (normal treatment), the aboveground biomass reached a maximum value during the first hundred years, decreased during the second, and remained stable for the rest of the 500-year simulation period. The leaf area showed a similar pattern. The total number of trees/ha decreased sharply during the first fifty years and reached a stable value by the end of the first hundred years. Successional patterns and species competitive abilities were interpreted from the accumulated biomass of each species over the simulation period under the different treatments.Species composition of the stand under the normal treatment showed dominance of deciduous species at early stages of succession, with conifer species being increased and becoming dominant at the end of the simulation period. When the climate was raised 30% (warmer) over the average, the deciduous species continued their dominance over the course of the simulation period. Other simulated species dynamics also appeared to follow what is known about their successional behaviour in the field.     

Long-term fire frequency not linked to prehistoric occupations in northern Swedish boreal forest

Knowledge of past fire regimes is crucial for understanding the changes in fire frequency that are likely to occur during the coming decades as a result of global warming and land-use change. This is a key issue for the sustainable management of forest biodiversity because fire regimes may be controlled by vegetation, human activities, and/or climate. The present paper aims to reconstruct the pattern of fire frequency over the Holocene at three sites located in the same region in the northern Swedish boreal forest. The fire regime is reconstructed from sedimentary charcoal analysis of small lakes or ponds. This method allows fire events to be characterized, after detrending the charcoal influx series, and allows estimation of the time elapsed between fires. The long-term fire regime, in terms of fire-free intervals, can thus be elucidated. At the three sites, the mean fire-free intervals through the Holocene were long and of similar magnitude (approximately 320 years). This similarity suggests that the ecological processes controlling fire ignition and spread were the same. At the three sites, the intervals were shorter before 8600 cal yr BP (calibrated years before present), between 7500 and 4500 cal yr BP, and after 2500 cal yr BP. Geomorphological and vegetation factors cannot explain the observed change, because the three sites are located in the same large ecological region characterized by Pinus sylvestris-Ericaceae mesic forests, established on morainic deposits at the same elevation. Archaeological chronologies also do not match the fire chronologies. A climatic interpretation is therefore the most likely explanation of the long-term regional pattern of fire. Although recent human activities between the 18th and the 20th centuries have clearly affected the fire regime, the dominant factor controlling it for 10000 years in northern Sweden has probably been climatic.     

Modelling forest succession in two southeastern Canadian mixedwood ecosystem types using the ZELIG model

The gap model ZELIG was validated for red spruce–balsam fir–yellow birch and yellow birch–sugar maple–balsam fir forest types in southern Quebec, Canada. Long-term historical data originating from the Lake Edward Experimental Forest, La Mauricie National Park, were used. The effect of the variation in plot size, representing the space within which trees uptake site resources, was also examined. Several species were included in both forest types: red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.), balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton), white birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.), American beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.), eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) and northern white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.). The pattern of change in basal area growth varied among species, ranging from a steady increase to a more or less rapid decline. There was a good agreement between observations and predictions for yellow birch, red spruce, red maple, sugar maple, balsam fir and northern white cedar. Plot size had a significant impact on the dynamics of the different species. Depending on the species, the decline was accelerated, the amplitude of the fluctuations varied, or the maximum basal area reached changed. Predicted regeneration varied among species and the number of seedlings generally increased with increase in plot size. The pattern of development for most species was related to their life characteristics. The results highlighted the fact that there is a critical lack of knowledge and data on the dynamics of regeneration from the seedling to the sapling stages for the two forest types studied, which resulted in poor predictions for some species. As the life characteristics varied among species, the use of only one plot size for all species may not be realistic.     

Biotic and abiotic controls of Argentine ant invasion success at local and landscape scales

Although the ecological success of introduced species hinges on biotic interactions and physical conditions, few experimental studies--especially on animals--have simultaneously investigated the relative importance of both types of factors. The lack of such research may stem from the common assumption that native and introduced species exhibit similar environmental tolerances. Here we combine experimental and spatial modeling approaches (1) to determine the relative importance of biotic and abiotic controls of Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) invasion success, (2) to examine how the importance of these factors changes with spatial scale in southern California (USA), and (3) to assess how Argentine ants differ from native ants in their environmental tolerances. A factorial field experiment that combined native ant removal with irrigation revealed that Argentine ants failed to invade any dry plots (even those lacking native ants) but readily invaded all moist plots. Native ants slowed the spread of Argentine ants into irrigated plots but did not prevent invasion. In areas without Argentine ants, native ant species showed variable responses to irrigation. At the landscape scale, Argentine ant occurrence was positively correlated with minimum winter temperature (but not precipitation), whereas native ant diversity increased with precipitation and was negatively correlated with minimum winter temperature. These results are of interest for several reasons. First, they demonstrate that fine-scale differences in the physical environment can eclipse biotic resistance from native competitors in determining community susceptibility to invasion. Second, our results illustrate surprising complexities with respect to how the abiotic factors limiting invasion can change with spatial scale, and third, how native and invasive species can differ in their responses to the physical environment. Idiosyncratic and scale-dependent processes complicate attempts to forecast where introduced species will occur and how their range limits may shift as a result of climate change.     

Biotic and abiotic stress effects on nitrogen chemistry in the salt marsh cordgrassSpartina alterniflora (Poaceae)

Summary Planthopper (Insecta: Homoptera) feeding stress induces a senesence-like response in the leaves ofSpartina alterniflora characterized by decreased soluble protein, an increased total amino acid pool, and elevated levels of 10 individual amino acids. Increased proline and tryptophan in response to planthopper feeding could not be fully explained by protein degradation. Low degrees of soil salinity stress resulted in an increased total free amino acid pool and elevated levels of 7 amino acids. Anaerobic soil stress resulted in decreased glutamic acid and increased asparagine. Low salinity and anaerobic stress had no effect on soluble protein levels. Glycinebetaine was not affected by the stresses examined in this study.     

Forest age structure as indicator of boreal forest sustainability under alternative management and fire regimes: A landscape level sensitivity analysis

Effective forest ecosystem-based management requires a thorough understanding of the interactions between anthropogenic and natural disturbance processes over larger spatial and temporal scales than stands and rotation ages. Because harvesting does not preclude fire, it is important to evaluate the combined effects of harvesting and fire on forest age structure, a coarse indicator of forest ecosystem state. We performed a sensitivity analysis of landscape scale effects of forest management (strategy, harvest rate and access cost) and fire regime (fire return interval and extent) in terms of combined impacts on forest stand age-class structure on a study area of 3.5 million hectares of boreal forest of Québec. A series of scenarios were simulated over 500 years and replicated 30 times using a previously reported spatially explicit landscape model. Within the parameter space of our sensitivity analysis, we found that harvest rate, fire return interval and management strategy were the most significant parameters affecting stand age-class distribution across the landscape. The former are not so surprising, given that they combine to produce an overall disturbance rate, but the latter shows that the resulting impact on age-class structure can be influenced to some degree through management objectives. A harvesting strategy of clearcutting for sustained timber supply, using a harvest rotation based on minimum merchantable age (approximately 100 years in this analysis), creates a trend for the stand age-class distribution away from the expected range of natural variation for the study area. Within the scope of our simulations, alternative management strategies with extended harvest rotation age proved the most robust forest management practice to absorb variations in fire regime.     

Dynamics of surface albedo of a boreal forest and its simulation

Surface albedo determines the distribution of solar radiation between the earth's surface and the atmosphere. It affects the global climate directly by altering surface energy balance, and indirectly by controlling ecosystem processes and greenhouse gas exchange. In this study, a land surface albedo model was constructed based on the gap probability approach for ray tracing and the basic optical parameters of ecosystem elements. The model was applied to a boreal deciduous forest and results were compared with field measurements. Results show that seasonal and diurnal albedo dynamics were well simulated by the model. The standard deviation between the simulated and measured reflected radiation was 2.5–5.0 W m⁻² in different seasons. The model also provided an insight into the relationships between surface albedo and radiation components (direct versus diffuse), solar zenith angle, and different wave bands. Model sensitivity analyses show that the surface albedo in winter is very sensitive to the forest wood area index for this boreal aspen forest, suggesting that accurate estimates of wood area index are necessary to improve the accuracy of surface albedo simulation in leafless seasons.     

Point patterns of forest fire locations

In this paper I demonstrate some of the techniques for the analysis of spatial point patterns that have become available due to recent developments in point process modelling software. These developments permit convenient exploratory data analysis, model fitting, and model assessment. Efficient model fitting, in particular, makes possible the testing of statistical hypotheses of genuine interest, even when interaction between points is present, via Monte Carlo methods. The discussion of these techniques is conducted jointly with and in the context of some preliminary analyses of a collection of data sets which are of considerable interest in their own right. These data sets (which were kindly provided to me by the New Brunswick Department of Natural Resources) consist of the complete records of wildfires which occurred in New Brunswick during the years 1987 through 2003. In treating these data sets I deal with data-cleaning problems, methods of exploratory data analysis, means of detecting interaction, fitting of statistical models, and residual analysis and diagnostics. In addition to demonstrating modelling techniques, I include a discussion on the nature of statistical models for point patterns. This is given with a view to providing an understanding of why, in particular, the Strauss model fails as a model for interpoint attraction and how it has been modified to overcome this difficulty. All actual modelling of the New Brunswick fire data is done only with the intent of illustrating techniques. No substantive conclusions are or can be drawn at this stage. Realistic modelling of these data sets would require incorporation of covariate information which I do not so far have available.

Impacts of daily weather variability on simulations of the Canadian boreal forest

This study examines the importance of climate variability when simulating forest succession using a process-based model of stand development. The FORSKA-2V forest gap model, originally developed for forcing with monthly mean climate data, was modified to accept daily weather data. The model's performance was compared using different temporal resolutions of forcing along a bioclimatic transect crossing the boreal region of central Canada, including the aspen-parkland and forest-tundra ecotones. Forcing the model with daily weather data improved the simulation of key attributes of present-day forest along the transect, particularly at the ecotones, compared to forcing with monthly data or long term averages. The results support the hypothesis that climatic variability at daily time-scales is an important determinant of present-day boreal forest composition and productivity. To simulate boreal forest response to climatic change it will be necessary to create climatic scenarios that include plausible projections of future daily scale variability.     

Long-term aboveground and belowground consequences of red wood ant exclusion in boreal forest

Despite their ubiquity, the role of ants in driving ecosystem processes both aboveground and belowground has been seldom explored, except within the nest. During 1995 we established 16 ant exclusion plots of approximately 1.1 x 1.1 m, together with paired control plots, in the understory layer of a boreal forest ecosystem in northern Sweden that supports high densities of the mound-forming ant Formica aquilonia, a red wood ant species of the Formica rufa group. Aboveground and belowground measurements were then made on destructively sampled subplots in 2001 and 2008, i.e., 6 and 13 years after set-up. While ant exclusion had no effect on total understory plant biomass, it did greatly increase the relative contribution of herbaceous species, most likely through preventing ants from removing their seeds. This in turn led to higher quality resources entering the belowground subsystem, which in turn stimulated soil microbial biomass and activity and the rates of loss of mass and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) from litter in litterbags placed in the plots. This was accompanied by losses of approximately 15% of N and C stored in the humus on a per area basis. Ant exclusion also had some effects on foliar stable isotope ratios for both C and N, most probably as a consequence of greater soil fertility. Further, exclusion of ants had multitrophic effects on a microbe-nematode soil food web with three consumer trophic levels and after six years promoted the bacterial-based relative to the fungal-based energy channel in this food web. Our results point to a major role of red wood ants in determining forest floor vegetation and thereby exerting wide-ranging effects on belowground properties and processes. Given that the boreal forest occupies 11% of the Earth's terrestrial surface and stores more C than any other forest biome, our results suggest that this role of ants could potentially be of widespread significance for biogeochemical nutrient cycling, soil nutrient capital, and sequestration of belowground carbon.     

Impact of nutrient removal through harvesting on the sustainability of the boreal forest

The cycling of base cations (K, Ca, Mg, and Na) was investigated in a boreal balsam fir forest (the Lake Laflamme Watershed) between 1999 and 2005. Base cation budgets were calculated for the soil rooting zone that included atmospheric deposition and soil leaching losses, two scenarios of tree uptake (whole-tree and stem-only harvesting), and three scenarios of mineral weathering, leading to six different scenarios. In every scenario there was a net accumulation of Mg within the soil exchangeable reservoir, while Ca accumulated in four scenarios. Potassium was lost in five of the six scenarios. Contrary to Ca and Mg, immobilization of K within tree biomass (69 mol x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) was the main pathway of K losses from the soil exchangeable reservoir, being five times higher than losses via soil leaching (14 mol x ha(-1) x yr(-1)). The amounts of K contained within the aboveground biomass and the exchangeable soil reservoir were 3.3 kmol/ha and 4.2 kmol/ha, respectively. Whole-tree harvesting may thus remove 44% of the K that is readily available for cycling in the short term, making this forest sensitive to commercial forestry operations. Similar values of annual K uptake as well as a similar distribution of K between tree biomass and soil exchangeable reservoirs at 14 other coniferous sites, distributed throughout the boreal forest of Quebec, suggest that the Lake Laflamme Watershed results can be extrapolated to a much larger area. Stem-only harvesting, which would reduce K exports due to biomass removal by 60%, should be used for these types of forest.     

The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest

The Atlantic Rain Forest, an important biodiversity hot spot, has faced severe habitat loss since the last century which has resulted in a highly fragmented landscape with a large number of small forest patches (<100 ha). For conservation planning it is essential to understand how current and future forest regeneration depends on ecological processes, fragment size and the connection to the regional seed pool. We have investigated the following questions by applying the forest growth simulation model FORMIND to the situation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of São Paulo, SE Brazil: (1) which set of parameters describing the local regeneration and level of density regulation can reproduce the biomass distribution and stem density of an old growth forest in a reserve? (2) Which additional processes apart from those describing the dynamics of an old growth forest, drive forest succession of small isolated fragments? (3) Which role does external seed input play during succession? Therefore, more than 300 tree species have been classified into nine plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by maximum potential height and shade tolerance. We differentiate between two seed dispersal modes: (i) local dispersal, i.e. all seedlings originated from fertile trees within the simulated area and (ii) external seed rain. Local seed dispersal has been parameterized following the pattern oriented approach, using biomass estimates of old growth forest. We have found that moderate density regulation is essential to achieve coexistence for a broad range of regeneration parameters. Considering the expected uncertainty and variability in the regeneration processes it is important that the forest dynamics are robust to variations in the regeneration parameters. Furthermore, edge effects such as increased mortality at the border and external seed rain have been necessary to reproduce the patterns for small isolated fragments. Overall, simulated biomass is much lower in the fragments compared to the continuous forest, whereas shade tolerant species are affected most strongly by fragmentation. Our simulations can supplement empirical studies by extrapolating local knowledge on edge effects of fragments to larger temporal and spatial scales. In particular our results show the importance of external seed rain and therefore highlight the importance of structural connectivity between regenerating fragments and mature forest stands.     

Small mammals and forest fuel reduction: national-scale responses to fire and fire surrogates.

Forest fuel reduction treatments are increasingly used by managers to reduce the risk of high-severity wildfire and to manage changes in the ecological function of forests. However, comparative ecological effects of the various types of treatments are poorly understood. We examined short-term patterns in small-mammal responses to mechanical thinning, prescribed-fire, and mechanical thinning/prescribed-fire combination treatments at eight different study areas across the United States as a part of the National Fire and Fire Surrogate (FFS) Project. Research questions included: (1) do treatments differ in their effect on small mammal densities and biomass? and (2) are effects of treatments consistent across study areas? We modeled taxa-specific densities and total small-mammal biomass as functions of treatment types and study area effects and ranked models based on an information-theoretic model selection criterion. Small-mammal taxa examined, including deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), yellow-pine chipmunks (Tamias amoenus), and golden-mantled ground squirrels (Spermophilus lateralis), as well as all Peromyscus and Tamias species, had top-ranked models with responses varying both by treatment type and study area. In each of these cases, the top-ranked model carried between 69% and 99% of the total weight in the model set, indicating strong support for the top-ranked models. However, the top-ranked model of total small-mammal biomass was a model with biomass varying only with treatment (i.e., treated vs. untreated), not by treatment type or study area; again, this model had strong support, with 75% of the total model weight. Individual species and taxa appear to have variable responses to fuel reduction treatment types in different areas; however, total small-mammal biomass appears generally to increase after any type of fuel reduction. These results suggest that there is substantial variability in taxa-specific responses to treatments and indicate that adaptive management policies may be necessary when applying fuel reduction treatments in areas where management of small-mammal populations is of interest. Adaptive management can be used by managers who are conducting fuel reduction treatments to reduce uncertainty as to which treatments are locally optimal for meeting objectives for the management of small-mammal populations.     

Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils of a mangrove forest affected by forest fire

Surface soils affected by forest fires from Igbanko mangrove forest in Nigeria were analyzed for 16 EPA priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS). The total PAHs concentrations in the soils ranged from 63 to 188?µg?kg^?1 dry weight (average: 108?µg?kg^?1). The three predominant PAHs in the soils were naphthalene (Na), fluoranthene (Flu), and benzo(b)fluoranthene (BbF). Compared to the control sample (19?µg?kg^?1), elevated PAHs concentrations were observed in the soils, an indication of some level of PAHs contamination. PAHs source diagnostic ratios of Flu/(Flu?+?Pyr) and Ant/(Ant?+?Phe) indicated that the PAHs have a pyrogenic origin which may have resulted from combustion of grass, wood, or coal. An assessment based on Canadian soil quality guidelines indicated that the studied locations do not pose any serious adverse risk on human health.     

Long-term forest-floor litter dynamics in Canada's boreal forest: Comparison of two model formulations

Litter decomposition is a key component in ecosystem material cycling that determines (i) forest soil carbon (C) and nutrient content, (ii) release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and (iii) generation and mass transfer of dissolved organic carbon from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we provide simulations of long term forest-floor litter dynamics generated with both (i) an existing forest nutrient cycling and biomass growth model (ForNBM) with a single-pool formulation of forest-floor litter decomposition (Zhu et al., 2003. Ecol. Model. 169, 347-360), and (ii) a revised version of the model produced by substituting the single-pool formulation with a three-pool version of the formulation tested against data from litterbag experiments (FLDM; Zhang et al., 2010. Ecol. Model. 221, 1944-1953). This is done to determine the importance of subdividing the litter mass into categories of rates of decay (i.e., fast, slow, and very slow) on model accuracy. Forest-forest litter dynamics simulated with the two models are subsequently compared against field measurements collected at several northern jack pine (Pinus banksiana) stands along a southwest-northeast oriented transect (climate gradient) associated with the Boreal Forest Transect Case Study in northwest Canada. Initial comparison shows that the single-pool formulation underpredicts residual litter mass when forests are <65 years old, largely due to the improper treatment of the very slow decomposing litter component. This underprediction is resolved when the three-pool formulation is used. From a ecosystems-response point of view, the revised ForNBM (with the three-pool formulation) demonstrates that (i) forest-floor litter initially increases with forest growth and reaches a plateau once the forest matures; (ii) the forest floor stores more litter and C at the southern and warmer sites than at the northern sites; and (iii) in a similar climate regime, the forest floor stores more litter and C at productive than at nutrient-poor sites.     

Landscape trajectory of natural boreal forest loss as an impediment to green infrastructure

Loss of natural forests by forest clearcutting has been identified as a critical conservation challenge worldwide. This study addressed forest fragmentation and loss in the context of the establishment of a functional green infrastructure as a spatiotemporally connected landscape-scale network of habitats enhancing biodiversity, favorable conservation status, and ecosystem services. Through retrospective analysis of satellite images, we assessed a 50- to 60-year spatiotemporal clearcutting impact trajectory on natural and near-natural boreal forests across a sizable and representative region from the Gulf of Bothnia to the Scandinavian Mountain Range in northern Fennoscandia. This period broadly covers the whole forest clearcutting period; thus, our approach and results can be applied to comprehensive impact assessment of industrial forest management. The entire study region covers close to 46,000 km² of forest-dominated landscape in a late phase of transition from a natural or near-natural to a land-use modified state. We found a substantial loss of intact forest, in particular of large, contiguous areas, a spatial polarization of remaining forest on regional scale where the inland has been more severely affected than the mountain and coastal zones, and a pronounced impact on interior forest core areas. Salient results were a decrease in area of the largest intact forest patch from 225,853 to 68,714 ha in the mountain zone and from 257,715 to 38,668 ha in the foothills zone, a decrease from 75% to 38% intact forest in the inland zones, a decrease in largest patch core area (assessed by considering 100-m patch edge disturbance) from 6114 to 351 ha in the coastal zone, and a geographic imbalance in protected forest with an evident predominance in the mountain zone. These results demonstrate profound disturbance of configuration of the natural forest landscape and disrupted connectivity, which challenges the establishment of functional green infrastructure. Our approach supports the identification of forests for expanded protection and conservation-oriented forest landscape restoration.     

A model of surface fire,climate and forest pattern in the Sierra Nevada,California

A spatially explicit forest gap model was developed for the Sierra Nevada, California, and is the first of its kind because it integrates climate, fire and forest pattern. The model simulates a forest stand as a grid of 15×15 m forest plots and simulates the growth of individual trees within each plot. Fuel inputs are generated from each individual tree according to tree size and species. Fuel moisture varies both temporally and spatially with the local site water balance and forest condition, thus linking climate with the fire regime. Fires occur as a function of the simulated fuel loads and fuel moisture, and the burnable area is simulated as a result of the spatially heterogeneous fuel bed conditions. We demonstrate the model’s ability to couple the fire regime to both climate and forest pattern. In addition, we use the model to investigate the importance of climate and forest pattern as controls on the fire regime. Comparison of model results with independent data indicate that the model performs well in several areas. Patterns of fuel accumulation, climatic control of fire frequency and the influence of fuel loads on the spatial extent of fires in the model are particularly well-supported by data. This model can be used to examine the complex interactions among climate, fire and forest pattern across a wide range of environmental conditions and vegetation types. Our results suggest that, in the Sierra Nevada, fuel moisture can exert an important control on fire frequency and this control is especially pronounced at sites where most of the annual precipitation is in the form of snow. Fuel loads, on the other hand, may limit the spatial extent of fire, especially at elevations below 1500 m. Above this elevation, fuel moisture may play an increasingly important role in limiting the area burned.     

The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest

The effects of the risk of fire or other unpredictable catastrophe on the optimal rotation period of a forest stand are investigated. It is demonstrated that when fires occur in a time-independent Poisson process, and cause total destruction, the policy effect of the fire risk is equivalent to adding a premium to the discount rate that would be operative in a risk-free environment. Other cases are also investigated and in each a modified form of the Faustmann formula is derived and a “marginal” economic interpretation given.     

Assessing area-specific relative risks from large forest fire size in Canada

The evaluation of area-specific risks for large fires is of great policy relevance to fire management and prevention. When analyzing data for the burned areas of large fires in Canada, we found that there are dramatic patterns that cannot be adequately modelled by traditional hierarchical modelling assuming spatial autocorrelation. In this paper, we use the robust locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) technique to remove spatial and temporal trends; and we account for periodical cycles by employing the relevant periodic functions as covariates in a hierarchical Gamma mixed effects model. Based on the results of this generalized multilevel analysis of large fire size, we provide an area-specific relative risks ranking system for Canada and confirm that lightning tends to cause more severe damage in terms of fire size than human factor. A diagnostic check on the modelling shows that large fires data are reasonably modelled using this combination of semiparametric and mixed effects modelling approaches.