A note concerning time parameterization of Markovian models of ecosystem flow analysis

A continuous Markovian model of resource flow in a steady state ecosystem model is developed. This model calculates the mean and variance of the frequency of intercompartmental cyclings and duration of compartmental residence times. This model is compared with an analogous discrete Markovian flow model to demonstrate the sensitivity of discrete and continuous ecosystem flow analyses. Appropriate time parameterization of of discrete Markovian flow models is then discussed with special reference to Shannon's theorem of dynamic system sampling.     

2,4,6-三氯酚在模型水生生态系统中的归宿

测定了模型水生生态系统水、底泥中2.4,6-三氯酚(TCP)浓度随时间的变化值,以及TCP从水中挥发、光解、底泥吸附、解吸、微生物降解的速率常数.假设水中TCP的迁移和转化遵循—级速率过程,水中物质平衡能通过数学等式来描述,显示出室系统教学模型能粗略预测模型水生生态系统中TCP浓度随时间的变化.最后,应用该模型预测了排放到天津室外兼性塘中TCP的迁移、归宿,发现15d后出口水中TCP浓度已降低到入口水中浓度的10%     

Application of ecosystem health cost-effect analysis in eco-planning in Guangzhou City, China

Ecosystem health has been a focal point and research frontier of applied ecology in recent years, increasingly used in urban ecological studies. To quantify the effect of ecological improvement from eco-planning, an ecosystem health assessment method is used in eco-planning evaluation and decision support in the urban eco-planning research of Guangzhou City of China. Based on features of an urban ecosystem, five factors such as vigor, organizational structure, resilience, ability to maintain ecosystem service, and influence on people’s health were selected to develop the assessment indicator system. Then, to evaluate the validity of planning measures, a cost-effect analysis of the different scenarios on eco-planning was made, taking investment of the planned projects as the cost and ecosystem health state after implementing the scenarios as the effect. To establish priority of all the proposed planning schemes or countermeasures, variation of the ecosystem health state was evaluated when the investment of eco-environmental construction projects changes by ±10%, ±20% and ±50%, respectively. Thus, the order of importance of eco-environment construction projects to the urban ecosystem health state can be worked out, providing a reference for prioritizing the implementation of such urban eco-environmental projects. The study proved the trial value of an ecosystem health evaluation method in urban eco-planning research.     

Ecosystem services as a counterpart of emergy flows to ecosystems

A generic input-state-output scheme has been used to represent ecosystem dynamics. Systemic approaches to ecosystems use functions that are based either on inputs, state or outputs of the system. Some examples of approaches that use a combination of functions have been recently proposed. For example the use of eco-exergy to emergy flow can be seen as a mixed input-state approach; more recently, to connect the state to the output of the ecosystem, the relation of eco-exergy and ecosystems services has been proposed. This paper studies the link between the useful output of an ecosystems and its input through the relation between ecosystem services and emergy flow, in a kind of grey/black box scheme (i.e., without considering the state and the structure of the ecosystem). No direct connection between the two concepts can be determined, but identifying and quantifying the emergy flows feeding an ecosystem and the services to humans coming from them facilitate the sustainable conservation of Nature and its functions. Furthermore, this input-output relation can be established in general by calculating the ratio of the value of the ecosystem services to the emergy flow that supports the system. In particular, the ratio of the world ecosystem services to the emergy flow supporting the entire biosphere has been calculated showing that, at least at the global level, Nature is more efficacious in producing “money” (in form of ecosystem services) than economic systems (e.g., national economies and their GDP).     

A Markovian model for ecosystem flow analysis

Nutrient flow through ecosystems is modeled as a discrete Markov chain whose transition probabilities are stationary or time inhomogenous according to whether a steady state or dynamic ecosystem is modeled, respectively. Expected residence time and number of intercompartmental transfers for a nutrient within a set of compartments are derived. Variances of these random variables are also considered. A measure for ecosystem resource recycling is given as a weighted sum of probabilities.     

A 200-year perspective on alternative stable state theory and lake management from a biomanipulated shallow lake

Multiple stressors to a shallow lake ecosystem have the ability to control the relative stability of alternative states (clear, macrophyte-dominated or turbid, algal-dominated). As a consequence, the use of remedial biomanipulations to induce trophic cascades and shift a turbid lake to a clear state is often only a temporary solution. Here we show the instability of short-term manipulations in the shallow Lake Christina (Minnesota, USA) is governed by the long-term state following a regime shift in the lake. During the modern, managed period of the lake, three top-down manipulations (fish kills) were undertaken inducing temporary (5-10 years) unstable clear-water states. Paleoecological remains of diatoms, along with proxies of primary production (total chlorophyll a and total organic carbon accumulation rate) and trophic state (total P) from sediment records clearly show a single regime shift in the lake during the early 1950s; following this shift, the functioning of the lake ecosystem is dominated by a persistent turbid state. We find that multiple stressors contributed to the regime shift. First, the lake began to eutrophy (from agricultural land use and/or increased waterfowl populations), leading to a dramatic increase in primary production. Soon after, the construction of a dam in 1936 effectively doubled the depth of the lake, compounded by increases in regional humidity; this resulted in an increase in planktivorous and benthivorous fish reducing phytoplankton grazers. These factors further conspired to increase the stability of a turbid regime during the modern managed period, such that switches to a clear-water state were inherently unstable and the lake consistently returned to a turbid state. We conclude that while top-down manipulations have had measurable impacts on the lake state, they have not been effective in providing a return to an ecosystem similar to the stable historical period. Our work offers an example of a well-studied ecosystem forced by multiple stressors into a new long-term managed period, where manipulated clear-water states are temporary, managed features.     

利用耗散结构中的熵变计算探讨城镇生态系统的发展方向

判断城镇生态系统的发展方向通常用系统的产值或利润 ,这不能全面地表达城镇生态系统的的物质流、能量流、信息流、人口流以及货币流对系统的作用。文章从城镇生态系统的本质出发 ,利用耗散结构理论 ,探讨了城镇生态系统的熵变计算公式 ,并将它应用到大丰市和锡山市 ,所得结论与实际基本相符。因此 ,建议将熵变作为城镇生态系统的一个综合参数加以利用。     

基于RS和GIS的生态系统健康评价

生态系统健康评价可以认识区域生态系统健康状况、识别生态环境问题,为制定科学的生态保护对策提供依据,对提高可持续发展和环境管理具有重要的指导作用。文章由压力-状态-响应（P-S-R）概念模型建立了生态系统健康评价指标体系和评价模型,运用RS和GIS技术及统计学分析法,形成程序化、系统化的生态系统健康评价技术方法体系,并以高平市为案例,运用定量的方法对其生态系统健康进行综合评价及分级研究,通过对压力、状态、响应评价结果及健康综合评价结果的分析,结合高平市生态系统健康的自然条件状况与人类活动影响,探讨了影响区域健康的因素,为高平市资源的合理利用与保护提供科学依据。结果表明该技术对生态系统健康评价是切实可行的。     

Ecosystem Management across Ownerships: the Potential for Collision with Antitrust Laws

Abstract:  Cross-boundary ecosystem management is increasingly being advocated to address large-scale ecological issues on forested landscapes. Such management requires information about the age, composition, and distribution of trees and other vegetation in addition to the ability to coordinate management over large areas. In the United States, the forest industry owns and manages a large quantity of biologically productive forest land, and these forests are crucial to the success of regional ecosystem planning. Antitrust laws, such as the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, limit the industry's ability to participate in regional ecosystem planning because they restrict the ability of competing firms to coordinate activities and share information. Because antitrust courts do not consider the intentions of violators, achieving conservation or other public policy goals, even when working with government agencies, is not a sufficient defense. Therefore, the real and perceived threat of antitrust litigation is a disincentive to the forest industry's participation in large-scale ecosystem management. Potential solutions to this problem include state immunity statutes and third-party data aggregation.     

丹江口水库生态系统健康综合评价

2007年7月～2008年5月按季度对丹江口水库4个库区(丹江库区、汉江库区、取水口和五青入库区)的水环境和浮游生物进行了调查,采用生态系统健康指数(EHI)法和营养状态指数(TSI)法对该水库的生态系统健康状态进行定量的综合评价.结果表明:2007年7月～2008年5月,丹江口水库整体处于中营养状态,健康状态中等,健康状态总趋势是丹江库区>取水口>汉江库区>五青入库区;各库区生态系统健康状态存在季节性差异,丹江库区、取水口两库区全年为中等,汉江库区在夏季为较差,其它季节中等,五青入库区在冬季最差,其它季节较差.此外,对两种评价方法进行了比较,表明丹江口水库属于响应型生态系统,生态系统健康指数(EHI)适用于丹江口水库生态系统健康的评价.     

Trophic state,ecosystem efficiency and biodiversity of transitional aquatic ecosystems: analysis of environmental quality based on different benthic indicators

Estuaries and coastal lagoons are characterized by a strong spatial and temporal variability of physicochemical characteristics and productivity patterns. In these environments, the magnitude and direction of the ecological responses to inorganic nutrient increase (i.e. eutrophication) are difficult to predict. In the framework of the project, New Indicators of Trophic state and environmental quality of marine coastal ecosystems and transitional environments (NITIDA), we analysed benthic indicators of trophic state, ecosystem efficiency, and environmental quality in four different transitional environments. The trophic state of the sediments was assessed in terms of quantity and bioavailability of sediment organic C pools; ecosystem efficiency was determined in terms of the prokaryote efficiency in exploiting enzymatycally degraded organic C; environmental quality was determined in terms of meiofaunal diversity. Here, we provide a synopsis of the results obtained and a meta-analysis of the scores assessments obtained using the different ecological indicators of environmental quality and demonstrate that trophic state, ecosystem efficiency, and biodiversity in transitional ecosystems are closely linked. We conclude that the assessment of the environmental quality of transitional ecosystems should be based upon a battery of trophic state indicators and ‘sensors’ of ecosystem functioning, efficiency, and quality.     

Trophic state, ecosystem efficiency and biodiversity of transitional aquatic ecosystems: analysis of environmental quality based on different benthic indicators

Estuaries and coastal lagoons are characterized by a strong spatial and temporal variability of physicochemical characteristics and productivity patterns. In these environments, the magnitude and direction of the ecological responses to inorganic nutrient increase (i.e. eutrophication) are difficult to predict. In the framework of the project, New Indicators of Trophic state and environmental quality of marine coastal ecosystems and transitional environments (NITIDA), we analysed benthic indicators of trophic state, ecosystem efficiency, and environmental quality in four different transitional environments. The trophic state of the sediments was assessed in terms of quantity and bioavailability of sediment organic C pools; ecosystem efficiency was determined in terms of the prokaryote efficiency in exploiting enzymatycally degraded organic C; environmental quality was determined in terms of meiofaunal diversity. Here, we provide a synopsis of the results obtained and a meta-analysis of the scores assessments obtained using the different ecological indicators of environmental quality and demonstrate that trophic state, ecosystem efficiency, and biodiversity in transitional ecosystems are closely linked. We conclude that the assessment of the environmental quality of transitional ecosystems should be based upon a battery of trophic state indicators and 'sensors' of ecosystem functioning, efficiency, and quality.     

Increased spatial variance accompanies reorganization of two continental shelf ecosystems

Phase transitions between alternate stable states in marine ecosystems lead to disruptive changes in ecosystem services, especially fisheries productivity. We used trawl survey data spanning phase transitions in the North Pacific (Gulf of Alaska) and the North Atlantic (Scotian Shelf) to test for increases in ecosystem variability that might provide early warning of such transitions. In both time series, elevated spatial variability in a measure of community composition (ratio of cod [Gadus sp.] abundance to prey abundance) accompanied transitions between ecosystem states, and variability was negatively correlated with distance from the ecosystem transition point. In the Gulf of Alaska, where the phase transition was apparently the result of a sudden perturbation (climate regime shift), variance increased one year before the transition in mean state occurred. On the Scotian Shelf, where ecosystem reorganization was the result of persistent overfishing, a significant increase in variance occurred three years before the transition in mean state was detected. However, we could not reject the alternate explanation that increased variance may also have simply been inherent to the final stable state in that ecosystem. Increased variance has been previously observed around transition points in models, but rarely in real ecosystems, and our results demonstrate the possible management value in tracking the variance of key parameters in exploited ecosystems.     

Ecosystem health assessment of urban rivers and lakes

The assessment of the ecosystem health of urban rivers and lakes is the scientific basis for their management and ecological restoration. This study developed a three-level indicator system for its assessment. The results indicated that: Zhonghai and Nanhai are in the state of transition from unhealthy to critical state and all the other lakes are in unhealthy states. Water environmental quality, structure and function of the aquatic ecosystem, and the structure of waterfront areas were the constraints. Nanhai was ranked as poor and the others were all ranked as very poor. However, the ecological environment of Zhonghai and Nanhai were better than the others, the sums of the degree of membership to the healthy state and critical state were all close to 0.6. and the restorations of these lakes were moderate. The sums of the degree of membership to the healthy state and critical state of the other lakes were under 0.3, as it was difficult to restore these lakes. Some suggestions on scientific management and ecological restoration of the six lakes were proposed: $`To control non-point pollution and to improve the water quality of six lakes and the water entering into these lakes; $aTo improve the hydrological conditions of six lakes; $bTo rehabilitate the aquatic ecosystem and waterfront areas.     

Do microbial processes regulate the stability of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem?

Complex marine ecosystems contain multiple feedback cycles that can cause unexpected responses to perturbations. To better predict these responses, complicated models are increasingly being developed to enable the study of feedback cycles. However, the sparseness of ecological data often limits the direct empirical parameterization of all model parameters. Here we use a Bayesian inverse analysis approach to synthesize empirical data and ecological theory derived from published studies of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem (Takapoto Atoll, French Polynesia). We then use the estimates of flux magnitudes to parameterize probabilistic compartment models with two forms of heterotrophic consumption: (1) “bottom-up” donor-controlled heterotrophic consumption and (2) “top-down” mass-action heterotrophic consumption. We explore how the flux magnitudes affect the ecosystem's stability properties of resilience, reactivity, and resistance under both assumptions for heterotrophic consumption. The models suggest that the microbial uptake of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) regulates the long term rate of return to steady state following a temporary or pulse perturbation (resilience), and the cycling of carbon between abiotic pools and heterotrophic compartments regulates the short-term response (reactivity). In the bottom-up process model, the sensitivity of steady state masses following a sustained or press perturbation (resistance) is highest for the DOC pool following a sustained change to the microbial uptake rate of DOC. Further, a change in the microbial uptake of DOC propagates through the ecosystem and affects the steady state values of zooplankton. The analysis suggests that the food web is highly dependent on the recycling between the abiotic and biotic carbon pools, particularly as mediated by the microbial consumption of DOC, and this recycling determines how the ecosystem responds to perturbations.     

Ecosystem health assessment of urban rivers and lakes — Case study of “the six lakes” in Beijing, China

The assessment of the ecosystem health of urban rivers and lakes is the scientific basis for their management and ecological restoration. This study developed a three-level indicator system for its assessment. The results indicated that: Zhonghai and Nanhai are in the state of transition from unhealthy to critical state and all the other lakes are in unhealthy states. Water environmental quality, structure and function of the aquatic ecosystem, and the structure of waterfront areas were the constraints. Nanhai was ranked as poor and the others were all ranked as very poor. However, the ecological environment of Zhonghai and Nanhai were better than the others, the sums of the degree of membership to the healthy state and critical state were all close to 0.6. and the restorations of these lakes were moderate. The sums of the degree of membership to the healthy state and critical state of the other lakes were under 0.3, as it was difficult to restore these lakes. Some suggestions on scientific management and ecological restoration of the six lakes were proposed: ①To control non-point pollution and to improve the water quality of six lakes and the water entering into these lakes; ②To improve the hydrological conditions of six lakes; ③To rehabilitate the aquatic ecosystem and waterfront areas.     

Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down

Ecosystems close to a critical threshold lose resilience, in the sense that perturbations can more easily push them into an alternative state. Recently, it has been proposed that such loss of resilience may be detected from elevated autocorrelation and variance in the fluctuations of the state of an ecosystem due to critical slowing down; the underlying generic phenomenon that occurs at critical thresholds. Here we explore the robustness of autocorrelation and variance as indicators of imminent critical transitions. We show both analytically and in simulations that variance may sometimes decrease close to a transition. This can happen when environmental factors fluctuate stochastically and the ecosystem becomes less sensitive to these factors near the threshold, or when critical slowing down reduces the ecosystem's capacity to follow high-frequency fluctuations in the environment. In addition, when available data is limited, variance can be systematically underestimated due to the prevalence of low frequencies close to a transition. By contrast, autocorrelation always increases toward critical transitions in our analyses. To exemplify this point, we provide cases of rising autocorrelation and increasing or decreasing variance in time series prior to past climate transitions.     

Effects of interactions between anthropogenic stressors and recurring perturbations on ecosystem resilience and collapse

Insights into declines in ecosystem resilience and their causes and effects can inform preemptive action to avoid ecosystem collapse and loss of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. Empirical studies of ecosystem collapse are rare and hampered by ecosystem complexity, nonlinear and lagged responses, and interactions across scales. We investigated how an anthropogenic stressor could diminish ecosystem resilience to a recurring perturbation by altering a critical ecosystem driver. We studied groundwater-dependent, peat-accumulating, fire-prone wetlands known as upland swamps in southeastern Australia. We hypothesized that underground mining (stressor) reduces resilience of these wetlands to landscape fires (perturbation) by diminishing groundwater, a key ecosystem driver. We monitored soil moisture as an indicator of ecosystem resilience during and after underground mining. After landscape fire, we compared responses of multiple state variables representing ecosystem structure, composition, and function in swamps within the mining footprint with unmined reference swamps. Soil moisture declined without recovery in swamps with mine subsidence (i.e., undermined), but was maintained in reference swamps over 8 years (effect size 1.8). Relative to burned reference swamps, burned undermined swamps showed greater loss of peat via substrate combustion; reduced cover, height, and biomass of regenerating vegetation; reduced postfire plant species richness and abundance; altered plant species composition; increased mortality rates of woody plants; reduced postfire seedling recruitment; and extirpation of a hydrophilic animal. Undermined swamps therefore showed strong symptoms of postfire ecosystem collapse, whereas reference swamps regenerated vigorously. We found that an anthropogenic stressor diminished the resilience of an ecosystem to recurring perturbations, predisposing it to collapse. Avoidance of ecosystem collapse hinges on early diagnosis of mechanisms and preventative risk reduction. It may be possible to delay or ameliorate symptoms of collapse or to restore resilience, but the latter appears unlikely in our study system due to fundamental alteration of a critical ecosystem driver. Efectos de las interacciones entre los estresantes antropogénicos y las perturbaciones recurrentes sobre la resiliencia y el colapso de los ecosistemas     

An inverse ecosystem model of year-to-year variations with first order approximation to the annual mean fluxes

Ecosystems exhibit nonlinear dynamics that are often difficult to capture in models. Consequently, linearization is commonly applied to remove some of the uncertainties associated with the nonlinear terms. However, since the true model is unknown and the operating point to linearize the model about is uncertain, developing linear ecosystems models is non-trivial. To develop a linear ecosystem model, we assume that the annual mean state of an ecosystem is a minor bias from the long-term mean state. A first order approximation inverse model to govern the year-to-year dynamics of ecosystems whose characteristic time scales are less than 1 year is developed, through theoretically formulation, on the basis of steady state analysis, time scale separation and nondimensionalization. The approach is adept at predicting year-to-year variations and to tracking system response to changes in environmental drivers when compared to data generated with a standard nonlinear NPZD model.