Optimization and Decision Heuristics for Chesapeake Bay Nutrient Reduction Strategies

Regional policies to achieve water quality goals assign a unique pollution control technology to every pollution source in a watershed, thereby defining a watershed strategy. For watersheds with even a modest number of pollution sources and control alternatives, the decision problem has combinatorial complexity. The perception of complexity—manifested in innumerable feasible watershed strategies—commonly induces the use of simplifying decision heuristics and ad hoc decision rules that reduce decision complexity by limiting the choice set to a “manageable” number of alternatives. In problems with large complex choice sets, these decision heuristics simplify decision making by excluding the vast majority of feasible alternatives a priori. In contrast, watershed-scale optimization enables decision makers to consider all feasible alternatives implicitly, exploiting rather than restricting the complexity of the feasible choice set. This contrast is illustrated using mixed-integer linear programming to identify interstate watershed strategies that achieve Chesapeake Bay nutrient reduction goals for the Potomac River Basin. The use of optimization in collaborative decision making helped refine and capture decision makers’ underlying values and preferences in policy-relevant constraints reflecting equity and political feasibility. Optimization formulations incorporating these constraints identified more effective and desirable management alternatives that would not otherwise have been considered using familiar decision heuristics and traditional comparisons among a limited number of ad hoc scenarios. Incorporating optimization in collaborative decision making generated superior watershed strategies and eased the cognitive limitations on decision making by substituting the computational burden of solving mixed-integer linear programs for decision makers’ cognitive burden of enumerating alternatives and scenarios for environmental systems with combinatorial complexity.     

臭氧数值预报模型综述

光化学大气质量模型在研究臭氧(O_3)污染以及O_3预报方面具有核心作用,是O_3污染防治决策者的有力工具。文章结合目前中国及国际区域尺度光化学大气质量预报模型的研究与应用,重点论述与O_3有关的大气化学过程在数值预报模型中的数学表达和计算方法,阐述大气物理与大气化学过程在主流大气质量数值预报模型中的实现方法及其优势和缺陷,介绍用于数值预报模型的大气物理过程和湍流参数化方案的最新进展。就当前O_3数值模拟的主要输入资料进行讨论,强调那些易被忽视但又显著影响模型预报能力和效果的诸多因素以及模型效果评估的重要性。结合O_3与复合型大气污染的关系,强调区域大气质量数值预报模型的发展趋势与方向以及在大气环境管理方面的意义和作用。     

某市城区典型时段VOCs污染特征及其与O3的相关性

通过研究某市城区4—9月臭氧污染较严重时间段71种挥发性有机物的手工监测数据和臭氧浓度自动监测数据,分析了该市挥发性有机物在典型时段的污染特征及其与臭氧浓度变化的相关性。为该市通过控制挥发性有机物排放来精准防控臭氧污染提供参考。研究结果显示：该市挥发性有机物浓度水平与活性水平变化趋势总体一致,污染物种类在不同时间段的浓度和活性有差异,从浓度和活性角度分析得到的关键物种在不同时间段有差异,挥发性有机物的污染变化与臭氧浓度变化的相关性有时显著,有时不显著。     

Spatial based compromise programming for multiple criteria decision making in land use planning

Today, competing land use is continuing to occur in many developed regions. In the Agricultural Development Zone of Western Sydney Region, which is characterised by complex landscape patterns, land use competition is widespread. From a land use planning perspective, identification of suitable locations for a given type of land use is necessary for decision makers to formulate land use alternatives in different locations, based on existing land potential and constraints. For such a region, use of a simple method that implements a categorical system and considers only inherent land characteristics in the analysis is often inadequate to arrive at an optimal spatial decision. The primary aim of this paper is to develop spatial modelling procedures for agricultural land suitability analysis using compromise programming (CoPr) and fuzzy set approach within a geographical information systems (GIS) environment. Five main sets of spatial data for use as decision criteria were developed by using fuzzy set methodology: a land suitability index (LSI) for maximising the land productivity objective; an erosion tolerance index (ETI) for minimising the erosion risk objective; a runoff curve number (CN) for maximising the water discharge regulation objective; an accessibility (RP) measure for maximising the land accessibility objective; and the proximity to water body (WP) for minimising the water pollution objective. An L _p -metric was used in the analysis utilising different strategies with representative indices ranging from a situation where full tradeoff among criteria occurs to a noncompensatory condition. Different weighting combinations were also applied, and decision analysis was carried out by using values ranging from 0 to 1.0, where 1.0 is considered as an ideal point. The CoPr model demonstrated in this paper yielded a promising result, as several different techniques of sensitivity analysis show reasonably good results. Likewise, an overlay of that result with the present land use/land cover indicates a good corresponding spatial matching between existing land use (orchard and cultivated land), and the cells (land parcels) classified as the best in CoPr. The results are amenable to various map display techniques, either using continuous values or by defining different cut off points in the data space within a raster GIS environment.     

Simulation and Evaluation of Control Strategies for Ozone Reduction in a Complex Terrain in Southwestern Spain

During the central months of the year, southwestern Spain is under strong insolation and weak synoptic forcing, promoting the development of sea breezes and mountain-induced winds and creating recirculations of pollutants. The complex topography of the Southwestern Iberia Peninsula induces the formation of vertical layers, into which the pollutants are injected and subjected to long-distance transport and compensatory subsidence. The characteristics of these highly complex flows have important effects on the pollutant dispersion. Air pollution studies in very complex terrains require high-resolution modelling for resolving the flow dynamics. This paper shows the results obtained from using the MM5-CAMx multiscale-nested air quality model to relate the sensitivity regimes for ozone, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds in an area of high geographical complexity. The article assesses the impact on the hourly and eight-hourly maximum daily ozone concentrations of four reduction strategies during two ozone pollution episodes. This analysis of the ozone response has led to a preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness of the most common control strategies: traffic, industry, mixed traffic and industry, and closure of some of the largest industries (oil and petrochemical refineries). Photochemical indicators show that ozone chemistry in southwestern Spain is strongly sensitive to NO _x . However, volatile organic compound-sensitive points are found in areas with anthropogenic influence (highways, cities and industrial parks). Our results indicate that reductions in road traffic lead to ozone reductions over large areas, whereas reductions in industrial emissions, despite sometimes showing greater decreases in the maximum hourly and eight-hourly ground-level ozone levels, lead to ozone reductions in a local area only. In the control study case, with the oil refinery and the petrochemical plants closed, decreases in ozone hourly concentrations are up to 40% higher than in the other emission control scenarios studied. This analysis provides an assessment of the effectiveness of different policies for controlling precursor emissions by comparing the modelled results for different scenarios.     

G20峰会期间长三角区域臭氧变化及管控效果评估

为了研究2016年二十国集团领导人峰会(G20峰会)期间长三角区域臭氧(O3)变化特征,评估管控措施对O3浓度的影响,利用2016年8月10日至9月20日杭州及周边地区的空气质量监测数据、气象数据以及排放清单数据,分析了O3和NO2浓度及气象条件的时空分布特征,研究了不同管控区域不同保障时期O3浓度的时空变化和O3敏感控制区的改变。结果表明:峰会保障期间对于一次排放污染物和细颗粒物的管控措施效果明显,但核心区的O3质量浓度高于严控区和管控区,分别高出11. 2、9. 2μg/m^3。日间的NOx管控导致O3日变化幅度增高接近50μg/m^3。在峰会保障期间,卫星数据和站点观测结果显示核心区O3由VOCs控制区转为NOx-VOCs协同控制区,整个长三角区域的O3生成对于NOx排放量更为敏感。管控措施越强,核心区的O3生成对于NOx排放越敏感,且O3浓度与NOx浓度的相关性越强。对NOx和VOCs的协同控制降低排放,是关系O3浓度管控的一项重要工作。     

Optimal Expansion Strategy for a Sewer System under Uncertainty

Because of fast urban sprawl, land use competition, and the gap in available funds and needed funds, municipal decision makers and planners are looking for more cost-effective and sustainable ways to improve their sewer infrastructure systems. The dominant approaches have turned to planning the sanitary sewer systems within a regional context, while the decentralized and on-site/cluster wastewater systems have not overcome the application barriers. But regionalization policy confers uncertainties and risks upon cities while planning for future events. Following the philosophy of smart growth, this paper presents several optimal expansion schemes for a fast-growing city in the US/Mexico borderlands—the city of Pharr in Texas under uncertainty. The waste stream generated in Pharr is divided into three distinct sewer sheds within the city limit, including south region, central region, and north region. The options available include routing the wastewater to a neighboring municipality (i.e., McAllen) for treatment and reuse, expanding the existing wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in the south sewer shed, and constructing a new WWTP in the north sewer shed. Traditional deterministic least-cost optimization applied in the first stage can provide a cost-effective and technology-based decision without respect to associated uncertainties system wide. As the model is primarily driven by the fees charged for wastewater transfer, sensitivity analysis was emphasized by the inclusion of varying flat-rate fees for adjustable transfer schemes before contracting process that may support the assessment of fiscal benefits to all parties involved. Yet uncertainties might arise from wastewater generation, wastewater reuse, and cost increase in constructing and operating the new wastewater treatment plant simultaneously. When dealing with multiple sources of uncertainty, the grey mixed integer programming (GIP) model, formulated in the second stage, can further allow all sources of uncertainties to propagate throughout the optimization context, simultaneously leading to determine a wealth of optimal decisions within a reasonable range. Both models ran for three 5-year periods beginning in 2005 and ending in 2020. The dynamic outputs of this analysis reflect the systematic concerns about integrative uncertainties within this decision analysis, which enable decision makers and stakeholders to make all-inclusive decisions for sanitary sewer system expansion in an economically growing region.     

Fragmentary provisions for uncertainty disclosure and consideration in EA legislation,regulations and guidelines and the need for improvement

The consideration and disclosure of uncertainties is fundamental to a credible EA process, but little is known about the nature and type of requirements and guidance available to proponents, practitioners and decision makers about how to deal with uncertainties. This paper examines the provisions for considering and disclosing uncertainties in EA. Methods are based on a comparative review of uncertainty provisions in EA legislation, regulations and guidance documents under Canadian federal, provincial and territorial jurisdictions. Results show 10 types of provisions applied at different stages of the EA process with considerable jurisdictional variability and incoherence. The most common provision was that decision makers can request that project proponents provide more information, followed by the preparation of contingency plans, and that practitioners document their assumptions about data reliability. Most of these provisions were found in guidelines, versus legislation or regulations; and most addressed impact management, with very few provisions for addressing uncertainty during EA review and decision making. Current practices of uncertainty (non)disclosure and (non)consideration in EA can be explained, in part, by the superficial nature and limited extent of the requirements and guidance made available to EA practitioners, proponents, and decision makers. The existing requirements placed on proponents and practitioners to disclose and consider uncertainties are necessary, but insufficient. Stronger, more coherent and transparent requirements for those tasked with EA review and decision making to consider uncertainty information when disclosed, and the development of practical guidance on how to do so, are needed.     

An integrated air quality forecast system for a metropolitan area

Air quality forecasting is an important issue in environmental research, due to the effects that air pollutants have on population health. To deal with this topic, in this work an integrated modelling system has been developed to forecast daily maximum eight hours ozone concentrations and daily mean PM10 concentrations, up to two days in advance, over an urban area. The presented approach involves two steps. In the first step, artificial neural networks are identified and applied to get point-wise forecasting. In the second step, the forecasts obtained at the monitoring station locations are spatially interpolated all over the domain using the cokriging technique, which allows to improve the spatial interpolation in the absence of densely sampled data. The integrated modelling system has been then applied to a case study over Northern Italy, performing a validation over space and time for the year 2004 and analyzing if the limit values for the protection of human health set by the European Commission are respected. The presented approach represents a fast and reliable way to provide decision makers and the general public with air quality forecasting, and to support prevention and precautionary measures.     

On the Use of MRF/AVN Global Information to Improve the Operational Air Quality Model OPANA

Operational air quality models have become an important tool to assist the decision makers in European Environmental Offices at different levels: cities, regional and state. Because of the important advance on computing capabilities during the last few years the possibility of incorporating the complex research and academic mesoscale air quality models under routine operational basis has become a reality. OPANA model is the operational version of the research model ANA (Atmospheric mesoscale Numerical pollution model for regional and urban Areas). This model is a limited area model (mesoscale beta) and the capability to extend the prediction horizon is limited unless proper boundary conditions are provided during long simulations. In this contribution we show how AVN/MRF (NOAA) vertical numerical meteorological soundings are incorporated to the OPANA system by using JAVA technology. This new feature helps to keep the air quality model into medium power workstations and the performance is improved accordingly. This technology avoids running mesoscale models over larger areas (continental scale) to accordingly increase the forecasting temporal horizon.     

Accuracy of bottled drinking water label content

The accurate predictions of ground ozone concentrations are required for proper management, control, and making public warning strategies. Due to the difficulties in handling phenomenological models that are based on complex chemical reactions of ozone production, neural network models gained popularity in the last decade. These models also have some limitations due to problems of overfitting, local minima, and tuning of network parameters. In this study, the predictions of daily maximum ozone concentrations are attempted using support vector machines (SVMs). The comparison between the accuracy of SVM and neural network predictions is performed to evaluate their performance. For this, the daily maximum ozone concentration data observed during 2002–2004 at a site in Delhi is utilized. The models are developed using the available meteorological parameters. The results indicated the promising performance of SVM over neural networks in predicting daily maximum ozone concentrations.     

湖北臭氧分布特征及其管控措施

采用地面站点观测、卫星观测以及UWCM 0-D箱子模型模拟的方法研究湖北2013—2015年臭氧时空分布特征,并探讨其管控措施。从地面站点观测看出,时间分布上,这3年臭氧年平均浓度经历先下降后上升的过程,总体呈上升趋势,而二氧化氮年平均浓度则呈现持续下降的趋势;空间分布上,湖北各区域臭氧浓度分布不均匀,呈现东高西低的递减分布趋势。从卫星观测数据看出,2015年湖北的臭氧柱浓度高于2013、2014年同期。从空间分布来看,臭氧的柱浓度是从东北到西南、从省外到省内逐渐递减,因此推测,除了本地生成,湖北的臭氧有一部分是来源于省外传输。最大臭氧生成量法显示,烯烃(乙烯和丙烯)对湖北夏天臭氧生成量的贡献远大于其他挥发性有机化合物。箱子模型模拟的结果显示,湖北应该通过控制挥发性有机化合物的排放来降低臭氧生成速率,控制氮氧化物反而使臭氧生成速率提高。     

Multi-objective, decision-based assessment of a water quality monitoring network in a river system

Water quality monitoring network design has historically tended to use experience, intuition and subjective judgement in locating monitoring stations. Better design procedures to optimize monitoring systems need to simultaneously identify significant planning objectives and consider a number of social, economic and environmental constraints. The consideration of multiple objectives may require further decision analysis to determine the preference weights associated with the objectives to aid in the decision-making process. This may require the application of an optimization study to extract such information from decision makers or experts and to evaluate the overall effectiveness of locating strategies. This paper assesses the optimal expansion and relocation strategies of a water quality monitoring network using a two-stage analysis. The first stage focuses on the information retrieval of preference weights with respect to the designated planning objectives. With the aid of a pre-emptive goal programming model, data analysis is applied to obtain the essential information from the questionnaire outputs. The second stage then utilizes a weighted multi-objective optimization approach to search for the optimal locating strategies of the monitoring stations in the river basin. Practical implementation is illustrated by a case study in the Kao-Ping River Basin, south Taiwan.     

基于SHERPA的环境空气质量减排情景模拟评估

分析了SHERPA综合评价模型的基本原理和主要建模理念,重点介绍了其在环境空气质量减排情景模拟评估方面的作用,以及在排放源与受体关系(SRR)方面的处理方法,比较了其与欧盟常用的其他情景模拟模型的优缺点。SHERPA模型的特点是空间灵活性较好,对于任何给定地点,可以快速评估不同地区对该研究地点空气质量的影响。SHERPA模型的3个主要功能为污染物来源分析、决策支持和情景模拟。基于SHERPA模型对法国环境空气中PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)和NO_2年均浓度进行污染来源分析、决策支持分析和减排情景模拟评估,展示了模型在环境治理措施优先级筛选和政府间联合治理措施协调建议方面的功能和作用,以期为中国环境空气质量预测预报、环境质量管理措施的制定和成效评估等环境服务与管理工作提供借鉴。     

Validation of two air quality models for Indian mining conditions

All major mining activity particularly opencast mining contributes to the problem of suspended particulate matter (SPM)directly or indirectly. Therefore, assessment and prediction are required to prevent and minimize the deterioration of SPM due tovarious opencast mining operations. Determination of emission rate of SPM for these activities and validation of air quality models are the first and foremost concern. In view of the above, the study was taken up for determination of emission rate for SPMto calculate emission rate of various opencast mining activitiesand validation of commonly used two air quality models for Indianmining conditions. To achieve the objectives, eight coal and three iron ore mining sites were selected to generate site specific emission data by considering type of mining, method of working, geographical location, accessibility and above all resource availability. The study covers various mining activitiesand locations including drilling, overburden loading and unloading, coal/mineral loading and unloading, coal handling orscreening plant, exposed overburden dump, stock yard, workshop, exposed pit surface, transport road and haul road. Validation of the study was carried out through Fugitive Dust Model (FDM) and Point, Area and Line sources model (PAL2) by assigning the measured emission rate for each mining activity, meteorologicaldata and other details of the respective mine as an input to the models. Both the models were run separately for the same set ofinput data for each mine to get the predicted SPM concentrationat three receptor locations for each mine. The receptor locationswere selected such a way that at the same places the actual filedmeasurement were carried out for SPM concentration. Statisticalanalysis was carried out to assess the performance of the modelsbased on a set measured and predicted SPM concentration data. The value of coefficient of correlation for PAL2 and FDM was calculated to be 0.990-0.994 and 0.966-0.997, respectively, which shows a fairly good agreement between measured and predicted values of SPM concentration. The average index of agreement values for PAL2 and FDM was found to be 0.665 and0.752, respectively, which represents that the prediction by PAL2 and FDM models are accurate by 66.5 and 75.2%, respectively. These indicate that FDM model is more suited for Indian mining conditions.     

Optimal Design of a Multi-Pollutant Air Quality Monitoring Network in a Metropolitan Region Using Kaohsiung, Taiwan as an Example

An air quality monitoring network (AQMN) usually performs the basic function of assessment of regional air quality and demonstration of compliance with ambient air quality standards in an urban area. Different pollutants, however, may present different characteristic variabilities due to their specific emission patterns, rates of diffusion, and transport and transformation behaviors. But the costs of siting in a pollutant-specific monitoring network would be higher than that for a common network with respect to several pollutants monitored simultaneously. This paper presents a survey of multi-pollutant design principles and optimal searches for siting patterns of an AQMN using both simulation and optimization models as a combined tool. While conservative, quasi-stable, and reactive pollutants are considered in the design principles, cost, coverage effectiveness, and spatial correlation characteristics are included in the multi-criteria decision making process. For illustrative purpose, a series of technical settings and two types of objectives were examined in the case study for the city of Kaohsiung in Taiwan.     

Accurate Ozone Prognostic Patterns for Madrid Area by Using a High Spatial and Temporal Eulerian Photochemical Model

The ANA Air Quality Model (ANA stands for Atmospheric Mesoscale Numerical Pollution Model for Regional and Urban Areas) has been applied over Madrid during a five day period in June, 1995. The domain is 80 × 100 km2 and the spatial resolution is 2000 m. The ANA system is driven by a meteorological model REMEST and it includes a detailed emission model for anthropogenic and biogenic sources with 250 m spatial resolution and 60 minutes temporal resolution. Different deposition processes are used such as the Wesely (1989) and Erisman et al. (1994) resistance approaches and the simple aerodynamic resistance. The photochemical processes and the general chemistry is based on the CBM-IV mechanism for the organic compounds and solved by the SMVGEAR method (CHEMA module).The model uses 14 different landuse types which are obtained by using the REMO module which uses the information provided by the LANDSAT-5 satellite image over the domain. The emission module EMIMA takes into account the point, line and area emissions over the domain. Special importance is given to the biogenic emissions which are obtained by using the satellite landuse classification for caducous, perenneal and mixed terrain. The emission module considers the EPA and CORINAIR emission factors. The results show an accurate prediction of the ozone maxima for the five days and also the general pattern of the ozone observed data. The five day simulation is characterized by a local low pressure over the Madrid Area and high pressures over Spain and West of Europe. The ozone surface patterns show the diurnal cycle and the maxima concentrations up to 140-160 ppb for suburban areas during afternoon hours. The general performance of the model is considered quite good. The computer power requirements continue to be very high for standard workstations. Future progress on parallel platforms should improve considerably the computer time requirements.     

Differences between weekend and weekday ozone levels over rural and urban sites in Southern Italy

Air quality data from a network of 11 monitoring stations in the Apulia region of southern Italy during the summer of 2005 reveal a high frequency of ozone law limit violations. Since ozone is a secondary pollutant, air quality control strategies aimed at reducing ozone concentration are not immediate. Herein, we analyse weekly changes in concentration levels of ozone (O(3)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and evaluate how the differences in primary emissions cause changes in the production of ozone. The comparison between weekend and weekday levels of O(3) and its precursors are direct evidence for the existence of the "ozone weekend effect." This effect was observed at all stations with a considerable variation in the overall ozone magnitude, including both traffic stations and non-traffic stations. Data from VOC measurements at traffic stations primarily indicated elevated levels of benzene, toluene, and xylenes (BTX); all of these substances showed an overall decrease over the weekend. A single station indicated levels of non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) and PM10, both of which did not demonstrate any weekly cycle. Analysis of weekly and diurnal cycles of O(3), NO(x), CO, NMHC, and PM10 indicates that higher weekend ozone levels result from a reduction in the emission of nitrogen oxides on weekends in VOC-sensitive regimes. This indicates that a reduction in VOC and NO(x) levels would be more effective than NO(x) reduction alone. Our results underscore the need for improved and more efficient VOC measurements.     

Ensemble Techniques to Improve Air Quality Assessment: Focus on O3 and PM

Five air quality models were applied over Portugal for July 2006 with an ensemble purpose. These models were used, with their own meteorology, parameterizations, boundary conditions and chemical mechanisms, but with the same emission data. The validation of the individual models and its ensemble for ozone (O₃) and particulate matter was performed using monitoring data from 22 background stations over Portugal. After removing the bias from each model, different ensemble techniques were applied and compared. Besides the median, several weighted ensemble approaches were tested and intercompared: static (SLR) and dynamic (DLR) multiple linear regressions (using less-square optimization method) and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methodology. The goal of the comparison is to estimate to what extent the ensemble analysis is an improvement with respect to the single model results. The obtained results revealed that no one of the 4 tested ensembles clearly outperforms the others on the basis of statistical parameters and probabilistic analysis (reliability and resolution properties). Nevertheless, statistical results have shown that the application of the weights slightly improves ensemble performance when compared to those obtained from the median ensemble. The same statistical analysis together with the probabilistic measures demonstrates that the SLR and BMA methods are the best performers amongst the assessed methodologies.