Swedish nutrient reduction policies: an evaluation of cost-effectiveness

Since more than 30 years, the Swedish government as well as other governments in the drainage basin strives toward a reduction in nutrient loads to Baltic Sea coastal waters in order to combat eutrophication of the sea. In spite of this, the cost-effectiveness of actual environmental policy for meeting Baltic Sea nutrient targets has not been evaluated by national or international bodies in the region. The aim of this paper is to evaluate Swedish national nitrogen and phosphorus policies with regard to cost-effectiveness. This is done through a comparison of nutrient measures implemented through environmental policy decisions 1995–2005 with cost-effective policies for present national as well as Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) targets. The cost-effective measures are calculated using an empirical programming model including all countries adjacent to the Baltic Sea. Calculations show that measures that jointly reduce nitrogen and phosphorus are hardly applied in actual policy and that reductions in the agricultural sector are much smaller than is cost-effective. Data show, surprisingly, that considerable reductions have been carried out in the Bothnian Sea catchment in spite of there being no nutrient reduction target for this catchment. Results suggest also that the Swedish costs for meeting the new and geographically more restricted targets under the BSAP can be reduced if a policy with less restrictions on the location of phosphorus abatement is applied, compared to what is now suggested.     

Reference conditions for rivers of the German Baltic Sea catchment: reconstructing nutrient regimes using the model MONERIS

We introduce an approach for establishing reference conditions (RC) for rivers of the German Baltic Sea catchment, based on predictive modelling. An extensive data set of statistics from the year 1880 was coupled with literature data, providing a comprehensive basis for the calculation of regional historical nutrient emissions into rivers, river nutrient concentrations, and nutrient loading into the sea. Four different scenarios were calculated: scenario 1 assumed RC following previously established criteria for lakes (Poikane et al. in Environ Manag 45(6):1286–1298, 2010), scenario 4 applied the nutrient emission conditions of 1880 (considering non-intensive land usage, the presence of tile drainage systems, sewer systems, and the human population from 1880), and scenarios 2 and 3 considered intermediate conditions. Our results showed that nutrient emissions from scenario 1 accounted for approximately one-tenth of the currently observed total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) emissions. The nutrient emissions calculated for 1880 (scenario 4) were found to be 47 % (TN) and 55 % (TP) higher than those calculated considering reference lake conditions (scenario 1). Our results suggest that RC nutrient concentrations in rivers in the German Baltic Sea catchment were clearly below 0.05 mg/l for TP and 1 mg/l for TN. This range is in accordance with historical and calculated pristine nutrient concentrations from other rivers in similar catchments.     

Efficient management of eutrophic coastal zones in theory and practice: an application on nitrogen reduction to the Stockholm archipelago

This study estimates efficient nitrogen load reductions to the Stockholm archipelago, a Swedish coastal zone in the Baltic Sea, and compares these with politically determined and implemented nitrogen abatement programs. The region is relatively well equipped with necessary data, and a simple programming model is constructed. The results show a large divergence in efficient nitrogen reductions, mainly due to the divergences in benefit estimates from water quality improvements in the archipelago. However, the results need to be interpreted with caution due to all uncertainties related to predicting net values from changes in nitrogen load to a coastal zone. In spite of this, it is still of policy relevance to infer results which show that the politically determined target coincides with an efficient nitrogen reduction at relatively low benefit estimate, but that actual net benefits could be increased from a reallocation of abatement measures towards more low cost measures.     

Cost-effective nutrient reductions to coupled heterogeneous marine water basins: An application to the Baltic Sea

In this paper, the role of nutrient transports between marine basins is investigated for cost-effective solutions to predetermined marine basin targets. The interdependent advective nutrient transports as well as retentions among the seven major marine basins of the Baltic Sea are described by input-output analysis. This is in contrast to prior economic studies of transboundary water pollution that include only direct transport between the basins. The analytical results show that the difference in impacts between transport specifications depends mainly on the openness of the basins, that is, their transports with other basins. The application on Baltic Sea shows significant differences in costs and policy design between the nutrient transport specifications. The reason is that the Sea is characterized by long water and nutrient residence times, so relatively large part of nutrients are transported among basins.     

Correction to: Opportunities to reduce nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea by improving manure use efficiency in agriculture

While progress has been made in reducing external nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea, further actions are needed to meet the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), especially for the Baltic Proper, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga sub-basins. We used the net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) nutrient accounting approach to construct three scenarios of reduced NANI-NAPI. Reductions assumed that manure nutrients were redistributed from areas with intense animal production to areas that focus on crop production and would otherwise import synthetic and mineral fertilizers. We also used the Simple as Necessary Baltic Long Term Large Scale (SANBALTS) model to compare eutrophication conditions for the scenarios to current and BSAP-target conditions. The scenarios suggest that reducing NANI-NAPI by redistributing manure nutrients, together with improving agronomic practices, could meet 54–82% of the N reductions targets (28–43 kt N reduction) and 38–64% P reduction targets (4–6.6 kt P reduction), depending on scenario. SANBALTS output showed that even partial fulfillment of nutrient reduction targets could have ameliorating effects on eutrophication conditions. Meeting BSAP targets will require addressing additional sources, such as sewage. A common approach to apportioning sources to external nutrients loads could enable further assessment of the feasibility of eutrophication management targets.

     

Nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the Black Sea in 1970–2050

Increased nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs are major causes of eutrophication in the coastal waters of the Black Sea. The objective of this study is to analyze the past and future trends in river export of nitrogen and phosphorus to the coastal waters of the Black Sea and to assess the associated potential for coastal eutrophication. The Global NEWS-2 (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model was used for this purpose. Currently, most eutrophication occurs in the North Black Sea and the Azov Sea. In the future, however, this may change. We analyzed trends up to 2050 on the basis of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) scenarios. The results indicate that nutrient loads in rivers draining into the North Black Sea and the Azov Sea may decrease in the coming decades as a result of agricultural trends and environmental policy. However, in these scenarios, the targets of the Black Sea Convention are not met. In the South Black Sea, there is currently little eutrophication. But this may change because of increases in nutrient inputs from sewage in the future.     

Seasonal ecophysiology of an endangered coastal species,the yellow-horned poppy (Glaucium flavum Crantz)

Glaucium flavum Crantz. is a short-lived perennial herb distributed in coastal zones from the Black Sea to southern, western and north-western Europe. Despite its diminishing area of distribution and potential pharmacological value, little is known about the ecophysiological features of this coastal species. We investigated the photosynthetic performance of G. flavum by measuring gas exchange, chlorophyll fluorescence, photosynthetic pigment concentration and leaf water content over the space of a year in a coastal habitat of SW Spain. We also measured the variation in total concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, sulphur, potassium, calcium and magnesium, in the leaves and soil, throughout the study period. G. flavum showed a high resistance to summer drought conditions which appeared to be due to the high degree of stomatal control. The potential photochemical efficiency of photosystem II showed minimum values during the winter, indicating that low temperatures can produce negative effects within the photosynthetic apparatus. However, the marked decline in net photosynthesis during the winter seems to be mainly related to a loss of metabolic activity. Although leaf nutrient concentrations were, in general, within the normal ranges, phosphorus availability seems to be limited by the high calcium concentrations detected in the soil of the study site. Our study points out the efficiency of the different physiological adaptations of this rare and endangered coastal species in coping with the strong seasonal variability of the Mediterranean climate.     

137Cs and 90Sr behavioural regularities in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea

Variations in 137Cs concentrations were investigated over the period 1986-1997 in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea, following the Chernobyl power plant accident. The rate of "self-cleaning" was demonstrated to be very slow, the average concentration of 137Cs in 1996 being almost the same as that measured directly after the accident, in 1986. Measurements of both 137Cs and 90Sr concentrations generally revealed homogeneous distributions in this region of the Baltic Sea, though patchy distributions did develop under some hydrometeorological conditions. Specifically, the 137Cs concentration distribution became heterogeneous with values varying in the range 60-92 Bq/m3 under south-southwesterly wind conditions whilst the 90Sr concentration distribution developed similar characteristics with values ranging from 15 to 64 Bq/m3 under east-southeasterly wind conditions. In addition, in coastal waters, over extensive periods of north-northwesterly winds in 1995, 137Cs concentrations increased to values 1.5-2 times the overall average concentration, which was registered in 1986 and 1996. These data therefore reveal a continuing significant pollution of the waters of the Baltic Sea resulting from the Chernobyl power plant accident, a pollution compounded by the slow rate of radionuclide self-cleaning and significant probability of sudden regional concentration increase.     

基于遥感技术的长江三角洲海岸带生态系统服务价值评估

长三角海岸带是长江三角洲与东海间的重要过渡性区域,基于联合国千年评估提出的生态系统服务框架,以生态学为原理、以遥感反演技术为手段、借助经济学方法,对2005年及2008年长三角海岸带的10项生态系统服务价值进行了评估。结果表明,长三角海岸带2005及2008年的生态系统服务总价值分别为1 235.92、1 493.04亿元,与长三角地区实际GDP对比得出,生态系统服务价值实际降低,海岸带生态环境退化;对于不同的生态系统来说,林地、耕地、湿地的生态系统服务价值较高,为增强生态系统可持续发展应重点加以保护;对于不同的生态系统服务功能来说,旅游娱乐服务、土壤保持、调节水源为价值量最大的3项服务,而调节空气质量、精神文化服务、养分循环为价值量最小的3项服务。     

Quantifying changes to historic fish habitat extent on north coast NSW floodplains,Australia

Global degradation of coastal ecosystems is influencing the provision of ecosystem services, including fisheries maintenance services. Degradation of the Australian coastal zone and its resources following European occupation has been recognised for some time. This includes the loss of ecologically important coastal wetlands, which have strong trophic and habitat links to fisheries. In NSW, structural flood mitigation works are a principle driver of the decline of coastal wetlands; however, little action has been taken to quantify the extent of decline due to limited information of the pre-European settlement extent of coastal wetlands. We use spatial data sets in GIS to quantify prime fish habitat and calculate the loss of fish habitat for the large coastal floodplains of northern NSW, which are significant contributors to the commercial and recreational fisheries of NSW. The technique is validated by comparison with early maps of wetland distribution. We identified pre-European distribution of available fish habitat of approximately 477,000 ha, of which 87,000 ha was identified as prime fish habitat. Approximately 62,000 ha of prime fish habitat was impacted by drainage of the coastal floodplains in association with flood mitigation works which intensified in the mid-1950s and were largely completed by 1971, equating to a loss of approximately 72 % of prime fish habitat. The declining value of the ecosystem services provided by prime fish habitat following drainage is likely to be substantial. Some actions have taken place to restore the functions of this habitat although significant opportunities remain to reverse this decline through management actions that restore natural drainage and reinstate tidal exchange. These actions become even more important as pressures on coastal wetlands increase with climate change and associated sea-level rise.     

Level and origin of iodine-129 in the Baltic Sea

Environmental samples, such as seawater, seaweed, lake water, lake sediment and grass collected from the Baltic Sea area were analyzed for 129I and 127I by radiochemical neutron activation analysis. In 2000, the concentration of 129I in the seawater from Borholm and M?en in the Baltic Sea has reached 6.0 x 10(-13) and 16 x 10(-13) g/l, respectively, these are more than two orders of magnitude higher than the global fallout level. The highest value of 270 x 10(-13) g/l being found in the seawater from the Kattegat. By comparison of the level of 129I in the lake water and precipitation in this region, it is estimated that more than 95% of 129I in the Baltic Sea originates from reprocessing emissions, especially from the French nuclear fuel reprocessing plant at La Hague. More than 30% of 129I in the south Baltic and 93% in the Kattegat directly originates from the marine discharges of the European reprocessing plants.     

Possible use of Lingula sp. (Phylum Brachiopoda) as a dissemination strategy to promote sustainable development in Fangchenggang mangrove,China

The economic marketability of a brachiopod, Lingula was studied at three coastal mangrove sites, specifically based on socioeconomic parameters from 10 villages that utilized Lingula along Pearl Bay, Beilun Estuary Marine Nature Reserve, China. The significantly highest density of Lingula was at Jiao Dong (48.2 ± 35.14 individual/m²) whereas the biomass of Lingula was highest (0.76 ± 0.22 g/individual) at Gui Lao Bu. The shell size of the largest specimen was still less than that in other references. The socioeconomic study of the population related to Lingula involved a small group, and no relationship could be determined among the parameters of age range, education level, occupation, and financial status. The total economic value (320,927.4 Yuan) was based on the value of consumption whereas the value from sales was very low as recorded from Shan Xin over a three-month season. Analysis of the results to determine strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats was undertaken to identify the potential of Lingula sp. to be promoted and supported in the market as a novel source of income for the local community who are associated with mangrove resources; and also to examine its potential as a new food source for the rapidly growing population of China.     

Co-evolution of wetland landscapes,flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).     

Low-frequency variability of storms in the northern Black Sea and associated processes in the ocean–atmosphere system

Monthly anomalies of stormy wind–wave heights and return periods are evaluated using secular routine observations in the coastal zone of the northern Black Sea. It is shown that wind–wave anomalies in this region are characterized by high-amplitude quasi-periodical variability with typical timescale of about 50 years. This timescale is determined by temporal variability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system and coincides with periodicity of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Atmospheric re-analysis data show that cyclonic activity over the Black Sea basin intensifies when North Atlantic is relatively cold and meridional forms of atmospheric circulation are more frequent in the North Atlantic-Eurasian region. This leads to generation of more frequent Black Sea storm events and enhanced recurrence of extreme waves and results in profound (and mostly negative) environmental consequences. When North Atlantic is relatively warm and meridional forms of atmospheric circulation are less frequent in the North Atlantic-Eurasian region, environmental conditions in the Black Sea region are calmer. Thus, statistics of dangerous events can be wrongly estimated even if relatively long-term (~30 years) time series are considered and interdecadal variability of wind–wave anomalies must be taken into account when the risk assessment is accomplished.     

The present condition of the Vistula river catchment area and its impact on the Baltic Sea coastal zone

This review paper describes the state of the Vistula basin and the Baltic Sea area. The article is divided into two parts concerning the river and the Baltic coastal zone, respectively. Each part describes the geography and the environmental state of the region and gives an overview of the socio-economic conditions. The environmental state of the study regions is described in terms of annual monitoring data for the main physico-chemical and biological parameters. The data cover the last decade. The socio-economic overview includes parameters such as e.g. population density, industrialization, agricultureand land use.SI: Pirrone     

Effectiveness of short-term knowledge communication on Baltic Sea marine genetic biodiversity to public managers

The aim of this study is to assess the impact of two forms of short-term knowledge communication—lectures and group deliberations—on public managers’ policy beliefs regarding genetic biodiversity in the Baltic Sea. Genetic biodiversity is a key component of biological variation, but despite scientific knowledge and far-reaching political goals, genetic biodiversity remains neglected in marine management. Previous research highlights lack of knowledge among managers as one explanation to the implementation deficit. This multidisciplinary study builds on the identified need for an improved knowledge transfer between science and ongoing management. A basic knowledge package on genetic biodiversity in the Baltic Sea was presented as either a lecture or a deliberative group discussion to two separate samples of public managers who are involved in Baltic Sea and other biodiversity management at the regional level in Sweden. The empirical findings show that the communicated information has an impact on the public managers’ beliefs on genetic biodiversity of the Baltic Sea. Lectures seem more efficient to transfer knowledge on this theme. Those who received information through a lecture strengthen their confidence in area protection as a management tool to conserve genetic diversity. They were also more convinced of the obligation of authorities at national and regional level to take on larger responsibility for genetic conservation than those managers who participated in a deliberative discussion.

     

Exposure of atoll population to coastal erosion and flooding: a South Tarawa assessment, Kiribati

Atoll countries are particularly vulnerable to coastal hazards in the context of global change, which justifies the interest in population exposure assessments. This paper contributes to addressing this need by assessing the current exposure of the population of two areas of the South Tarawa Urban District (Tarawa Atoll, Republic of Kiribati) to coastal erosion and flooding. The assessment is based on data relating to island morphology (digital terrain models and shoreline change), land use (building extension and coastal works) and environmental changes reconstructed for the 1969–2008 period. The results highlight rapid changes in land use and significant differences in current population exposure to coastal erosion and flooding between and within study sites. Between 1969 and 2007–2008, the built area located less than 20 m from the reference shoreline has increased by a factor of 4.2 at Bairiki and by a factor of 32.2 at Eita–Bangantebure, enhancing population exposure given that land elevation is low (12.6 and 77.4 % <2 m at Bairiki and Eita–Bangantebure, respectively). Nevertheless, in Bairiki, 87.5 % of the built area is currently not exposed to coastal erosion (>20 m from the coastline) and flooding (>1.5 m). Building exposure is higher at Eita–Bangantebure, where 71.3 % of the built area is currently not exposed (using the same criteria), but 17.1 % shows medium to very high levels of exposure, due to very low land elevation (22.3 % of the land area <1.5 m) and shoreline recession. The Eita–Bangantebure case study exemplifies the maladaptive trajectories of change that have been reported in other atoll countries.     

Sand dunes management: a comparative analysis of ecological versus economic valuations applied to the Coastal region in Israel

Mobile coastal dunes are of significant ecological importance both globally and locally. Yet a large portion of these dunes are disappearing due to encroachment of local shrubs and exotic plants, resulting in changes of floristic and faunal composition, and an overall decrease in biodiversity of coastal systems. Active management is therefore required to maintain mobile dune presence. This study focuses on economic valuation of coastal dunes in Israel, based on public and professional ecological perspectives. This comparison allows reflection on the suitability of a contingent valuation method (CVM) to assess ecological restoration and conservation projects. The CVM was applied in Nizzanim LTER nature reserve in Israel, and concurrently, data of plant species composition on stabilized and mobile dunes were used to calculate the ecological value index (EVI) of the different dune states. The EVI was then transformed into monetary terms by combining the public valuation and the relative proportion of the various species to the total coverage. The monetary values derived from the general public and the ecological assessment were then compared and used to estimate the expected change in economic value resulting from a state shift from mobile to stabilized dunes. According to the CVM, the total value of the Nizzanim coastal dunes would drop from 344 to 197 million Israeli Shekels (NIS) (1 Shekel = $0.39) if active management does not take place, a reduction of 42 % in value. However, results from the EVI indicate only a 33 % decrease in ecological value (in monetary terms) in the absence of active management. We suggest that in this case, general public perception is strong enough to justify conservation decisions, even though they are not professional ecologists. However, we still recommend the use of both measures for land use decision making.     

Integrating regional perceptions into climate change adaptation: a transdisciplinary case study from Germany’s North Sea Coast

Coastal protection strategies increasingly have to take into account the effects of climate change. At present, engineering and natural science models that assess the impact of global climatic transformations on regional coastal zones and their protection structures remain rather detached from the knowledge and insights of regional practitioners. The main thesis of this contribution, using a case study from the North Sea Coast of Germany, is that innovative coastal protection requires not only interdisciplinary research but transdisciplinary collaboration in order to develop a viable adaptation strategy. The investigation of the social dimension of climate change and coastal protection strategies, using qualitative interviews with organized regional stakeholders, climate researchers and coastal engineers, as well as a representative public survey, contributes to a comprehensive understanding of regional perceptions with respect to climate change and coastal protection.     

Heading for the hills: climate-driven community relocations in the Solomon Islands and Alaska provide insight for a 1.5 °C future

Whilst future air temperature thresholds have become the centrepiece of international climate negotiations, even the most ambitious target of 1.5 °C will result in significant sea-level rise and associated impacts on human populations globally. Of additional concern in Arctic regions is declining sea ice and warming permafrost which can increasingly expose coastal areas to erosion particularly through exposure to wave action due to storm activity. Regional variability over the past two decades provides insight into the coastal and human responses to anticipated future rates of sea-level rise under 1.5 °C scenarios. Exceeding 1.5 °C will generate sea-level rise scenarios beyond that currently experienced and substantially increase the proportion of the global population impacted. Despite these dire challenges, there has been limited analysis of how, where and why communities will relocate inland in response. Here, we present case studies of local responses to coastal erosion driven by sea-level rise and warming in remote indigenous communities of the Solomon Islands and Alaska, USA, respectively. In both the Solomon Islands and the USA, there is no national government agency that has the organisational and technical capacity and resources to facilitate a community-wide relocation. In the Solomon Islands, communities have been able to draw on flexible land tenure regimes to rapidly adapt to coastal erosion through relocations. These relocations have led to ad hoc fragmentation of communities into smaller hamlets. Government-supported relocation initiatives in both countries have been less successful in the short term due to limitations of land tenure, lacking relocation governance framework, financial support and complex planning processes. These experiences from the Solomon Islands and USA demonstrate the urgent need to create a relocation governance framework that protects people’s human rights.