Coastal hazard risk assessment for small islands: assessing the impact of climate change and disaster reduction measures on Ebeye (Marshall Islands)

Small island states around the world are among the areas most vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise. In this paper, we present results from an innovative methodology for a quantitative assessment of multiple hazards on coastal risks, driven by different hydro-meteorological events, and including the effects of climate change. Moreover, we take an additional step by including in the methodology the option to assess and compare the effectiveness of possible disaster risk reduction measures. The methodology is applied to a real case study at the island of Ebeye (the Republic of the Marshall Islands). An example is provided in which a rock revetment is implemented as a risk reduction measure for the island. Results show that yearly expected damages may increase, by the end of the century, by a factor of three to four, depending on the sea level rise scenario considered, while the number of yearly affected people may double. Putting a cap on the temperature increase (e.g. 1.5 vs. 2 °C) according to the Paris Agreement may reduce damages and number of affected people by about 20 and 15%, respectively. However, impacts for same warming levels can vary substantially among different emission scenarios. Disaster risk reduction measures can be useful for mitigating risks in current and future situations but should be incorporated within long-term adaptive planning for these islands.     

Quantitative level of research in fish ecology and errors associated with it

Consideration is given to the relevance of error assessment in quantitative studies on fish ecology. A classification is given to the sources of error, and it is shown how to estimate the cumulative error of indices used in the study and, on this basis, to plan further research.     

Impacts of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on forest trees and forest ecosystems: knowledge gaps

Atmospheric CO(2) is rising rapidly, and options for slowing the CO(2) rise are politically charged as they largely require reductions in industrial CO(2) emissions for most developed countries. As forests cover some 43% of the Earth's surface, account for some 70% of terrestrial net primary production (NPP), and are being bartered for carbon mitigation, it is critically important that we continue to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on forest tree growth, productivity, and forest ecosystem function. In this paper, I review knowledge gaps and research needs on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on forest above- and below-ground growth and productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, water relations, wood quality, phenology, community dynamics and biodiversity, antioxidants and stress tolerance, interactions with air pollutants, heterotrophic interactions, and ecosystem functioning. Finally, I discuss research needs regarding modeling of the impacts of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on forests.Even though there has been a tremendous amount of research done with elevated CO(2) and forest trees, it remains difficult to predict future forest growth and productivity under elevated atmospheric CO(2). Likewise, it is not easy to predict how forest ecosystem processes will respond to enriched CO(2). The more we study the impacts of increasing CO(2), the more we realize that tree and forest responses are yet largely uncertain due to differences in responsiveness by species, genotype, and functional group, and the complex interactions of elevated atmospheric CO(2) with soil fertility, drought, pests, and co-occurring atmospheric pollutants such as nitrogen deposition and O(3). Furthermore, it is impossible to predict ecosystem-level responses based on short-term studies of young trees grown without interacting stresses and in small spaces without the element of competition. Long-term studies using free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) technologies or forest stands around natural CO(2) vents are needed to increase the knowledge base on forest ecosystem responses to elevated atmospheric CO(2). In addition, new experimental protocols need to continue to be developed that will allow for mature trees to be examined in natural ecosystems. These studies should be closely linked to modeling efforts so that the inference capacity from these expensive and long-term studies can be maximized.     

Conceptualising climate change in rural Australia: community perceptions, attitudes and (in)actions

Public engagement and support is essential for ensuring adaptation to climate change. The first step in achieving engagement is documenting how the general public currently perceive and understand climate change issues, specifically the importance they place on this global problem and identifying any unique challenges for individual communities. For rural communities, which rely heavily on local agriculture industries, climate change brings both potential impacts and opportunities. Yet, to date, our knowledge about how rural residents conceptualise climate change is limited. Thus, this research explores how the broader rural community—not only farmers—conceptualises climate change and responsive activities, focussing on documenting the understandings and risk perceptions of local residents from two small Australian rural communities. Twenty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted in communities in the Eden/Gippsland region on the border of New South Wales and Victoria and the north-east of Tasmania. There are conflicting views on how climate change is conceptualised, the degree of concern and need for action, the role of local industry, who will ‘win’ and ‘lose’, and the willingness of rural communities to adapt. In particular, residents who believed in anthropogenic or human-induced factors described the changing climate as evidence of ‘climate change’, whereas those who were more sceptical termed it ‘weather variability’, suggesting that there is a divide in rural Australia that, unless urgently addressed, will hinder local and national policy responses to this global issue. Engaging these communities in the twenty-first-century climate change debate will require a significant change in terminology and communication strategies.     

Evaluation and assessment of 25 years of environmental radioactivity monitoring data at Tarapur (India) nuclear site

The evaluation and assessment of monitoring data generated over a period of 1983-2007 (25 years) of a nuclear facility is presented. Time trends of particulate radioactivity, correlation between ¹³⁷Cs in discharge canal seawater and station discharged activity and correlation of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁶⁰Co, and ¹³¹I in marine species such as sponge and Nerita (gastropod) and corresponding discharged activity are discussed. The concentration of ¹³⁷Cs and ¹³¹I in seawater versus biota are discussed. A good correlation between ¹³⁷Cs in seawater and ¹³⁷Cs in liquid waste discharged was observed (R² = 0.8, p < 0.001). Similarly, correlation was good for Nerita and discharged concentration of ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³¹I and ⁶⁰Co (R² = 0.55-0.73 and p < 0.001). The measurements over the years indicated that there is no accumulation of radionuclides in either the terrestrial or aquatic environments. The mean ¹³⁷Cs decreased from the pre-operational levels: 7.0-3.6 Bq kg⁻¹ in soil, 0.91-0.016 Bq L⁻¹ in milk and 0.28-0.036 Bq kg⁻¹ in vegetation. Similarly, the mean ⁹⁰Sr in these matrixes decreased from 3.9 to 0.26 Bq kg⁻¹; 0.37-0.011 Bq L⁻¹ and 0.34-0.022 Bq kg⁻¹ respectively. Cesium-137 of about 700 μBq m⁻³ was measured in the air filter disks during 1986 and there was a decrease of three orders of magnitude in concentration over the 25 years. The evaluation of environmental data indicated that the radionuclide concentrations and potential impacts, in terms of effective dose to the members of public, have significantly reduced since 1969.     

Determination of technetium-99 using electrothermal vaporization inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ETV-ICP-MS) and NH4OH as chemical modifier

In recent years, developments in ICP-MS have led to improved methods for determination of long-lived radionuclides. This paper reports the use of NH(4)OH as a matrix modifier and ETV sample introduction for the determination of technetium-99 ((99)Tc) in a variety of environmental and biological samples, using Re as carrier and (99m)Tc as yield monitor in the chemical separation method. Addition of an excess of NH(4)OH led to a stable (99)Tc signal, reduced memory effect, better reproducibility and reduced detection limits. Following radiochemical separation of (99)Tc from the sample matrix, detection limits in the order of a few microBq have been achieved. ETV has also proved applicable for rapid, direct analysis of a number of environmental samples having relatively high concentrations of (99)Tc (sediment extracts and river water close to nuclear installations). However, in this case, control of matrix effects (signal reduction and enhancement) using standard additions is necessary.     

Impacts of climate change and urban growth on the streamflow of the Milwaukee River (Wisconsin,USA)

Regional Environmental Change - Hydrological impact studies of climate change increasingly take land use changes into account. However, the Midwestern USA is still understudied in this context....     

Use of (7)Be to document soil erosion associated with a short period of extreme rainfall

Intensification and expansion of agricultural production since the 1970s have increased soil erosion problems in south-central Chile. Quantitative information on soil loss is needed for erosion risk assessment and to establish the effectiveness of improved land management practices. Since information from traditional sources, such as erosion plots, is limited, attention has been directed to the use of environmental radionuclides for documenting erosion rates. Cs-137 has been successfully utilised for this purpose, but only provides information on medium-term erosion rates. There is also a need to document event-related soil erosion. This paper outlines the basis for using (7)Be measurements to document short-term erosion and reports its successful use for quantifying the erosion that occurred within an arable field, as a result of a period of heavy rainfall (400mm in 27 days) occurring in May 2005. The study field had been under a no-till, no-burning system for 18 years, but immediately prior to the period of heavy rainfall the harvest residues were burnt. The erosion recorded therefore reflected both the extreme nature of the rainfall and the effects of the burning in increasing surface runoff and erosion. The sampled area corresponded to that used previously by the authors to document the medium-term erosion rates associated with both conventional tillage and the subsequent switch to a no-till system. Comparisons between the erosion documented for the period of heavy rainfall in 2005 with these medium-term erosion rates permits some tentative conclusions regarding the importance of extreme events and the impact of burning in increasing the erosion associated with the no-till system.     

Comparison of morphological defences in asexually and sexually reproduced eggs of Daphnia (D. galeata and D. similis) against fish kairomones

In the present study, we investigated morphological changes of hatchlings from asexually and sexually produced eggs of Daphnia galeata and D. similis against fish kairomones. In both species, hatchlings from asexual eggs showed induced traits, such as short body length, long tail spine and high relative tail spine length when influenced by fish kairomones. However, hatchlings from sexual eggs expressed high relative tail spine length regardless of kairomones presence. The results showed that the inducibility of morphological defences depends on the egg type, with inducible defences predominant in asexual eggs while fixed defences are employed by the offspring of sexual eggs in Daphnia.     

A sustainability assessment framework for regional-scale Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) incorporating Inclusive Wealth,Satoumi, and ecosystem services science

Sustainability has become an increasingly important concept in the last few decades; however, its operational usefulness has not always been clear. In other words, some sustainability assessments may not provide decision makers with the practical information necessary to perform the assessment. This study proposes a novel operational sustainable assessment framework for Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) on a regional-scale based on a feasibility study in the Seto Inland Sea in Japan. The framework draws upon three separately developed concepts: Inclusive Wealth as the technical framework for the sustainability indicators; Satoumi (a traditional Japanese multifaceted coastal zone concept); and ecosystem services science. These three concepts complement each other when seeking to corroborate an assessment framework. Indicators based on the framework and relevant to the case study site were identified. Although Satoumi is a traditional Japanese knowledge, it is believed that its application may be instructive for other areas, as similar concepts can be found and utilized for the conduct of ICZM sustainability assessments.     

Effects of gamma irradiation on Holcus lanatus (Yorkshire fog grass) and associated soil microorganisms

An investigation was conducted to determine the impact of acute doses of gamma radiation on the microbial community structure of a Holcus lanatus dominated grassland soil. Mesocosms containing soil and established grass were irradiated using a sealed (137)Cs source (7.0 Gy min(-1)). Doses ranged from 5 to 160 Gy, analyses were conducted on the day of irradiation, then 7 and 30 days later. Plant growth and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonisation of roots were reduced by irradiation. Gram-negative bacteria, and microbial metabolic capacity were also negatively affected by treatment. Microbial biomass measured by phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis, showed an increase at doses above 20 Gy, 7 and 30 days after treatment. Proportions of Gram-positive bacterial and fungal PLFAs fluctuated inversely to each other, in response to both sampling time and radiation dose. We hypothesise that many of the observed soil microbial responses are indirect effects mediated by the influence of ionising radiation on the plants in this system.     

Radioactivity and radiological risk associated with effluent sediment containing technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials in amang (tin tailings) processing industry

The processing of amang, or tin tailings, for valuable minerals has been shown to technologically enhance NORM and this has stirred significant radiological safety and health concerns among Malaysia's regulatory authority. A growing radiological concern is now focused on the amang effluent containing NORM in recycling ponds, since these ponds may be reclaimed for future residential developments. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk associated with amang processing and the accumulated effluent in the recycling ponds. Twenty-six sediment samples from the recycling ponds of two amang plants in the states of Selangor and Perak, Malaysia, were collected and analyzed. The maximum activity concentrations of (238)U, (226)Ra, (232)Th and (40)K recorded in sediments from these ponds were higher than Malaysia's and the world's natural highest. Correspondingly, the mean radium equivalent activity concentration indices, Ra(eq), and gamma radiation representative level index, I(gammar), were higher than the world's average. The enhancement of NORM in effluent sediments as a consequence of amang processing, and the use of a closed water management recycling system created Effective Dose Rates, E (nSv h(-1)), that signal potential environmental radiological risks in these ponds, should they be reclaimed for future land use.     

Predominance of BDE-209 and other higher brominated diphenyl ethers in eggs of white stork (Ciconia ciconia) colonies from Spain

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are ubiquitous pollutants for which there is still a lack of knowledge about the environmental behavior and fate of the higher brominated congeners (octa- to deca-BDEs). In this study, the PBDE content and congener profiles in failed eggs from two colonies of white stork (Ciconia ciconia) in Spain were studied. The average total PBDE concentration was 1.64ng/g (wet weight, w.w.) for the rural colony and 9.08ng/g (w.w.) for the urban colony. Higher brominated BDEs dominated the congener profiles of both colonies. Of particular interest was the determination of BDE-209 as the dominant congener accounting for 44.1% and 38.6% of the total PBDE content in the rural and urban colonies, respectively. BDE-202, considered an indicator of BDE 209 debromination, was detected in 83% and all of the samples from rural and urban colonies, respectively. The observed congener profile in which BDE-207>BDE-208>BDE-206 does not correspond to any known technical PBDE mixture and is evidence for possible BDE-209 degradation.     

Socio-economic vulnerability of the megacity of Shanghai (China) to sea-level rise and associated storm surges

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a significant threat to many coastal areas and will likely have important impacts on socio-economic development in those regions. Located on the eastern coast in China, the megacity of Shanghai is particularly vulnerable to SLR and associated storm surge risks. Using the municipality of Shanghai as a case study, the possible impacts of flooding risks caused by SLR and associated storm surges on socio-economic development in the region were analysed by a Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (SPRC) conceptual model. The projections of flooding risk in the study area were simulated by MIKE21 (a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model) for the three time periods of 2030, 2050 and 2100. An index system for vulnerability assessment was devised, in which flooding depth, density of population, GDP per capita, GDP per unit land, loss rate under flooding and fiscal revenue were selected as the key indicators. A quantitative spatial assessment method based on a GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating and then grading the vulnerability index. The results showed that in the 2030 projection, 99.3 % of the areas show no vulnerability to SLR and associated storm surges under the present infrastructure. By 2050, the areas with low, moderate and high vulnerabilities change significantly to 5.3, 8.0 and 23.9 %, respectively, while by 2100, the equivalent figures are 12.9, 6.3 and 30.7 %. The application of the SPRC model, the methodology and the results from this study could assist with the objective and quantitative assessment of the socio-economic vulnerability of other similar coastal regions undergoing the impacts of SLR and associated storm surges. Based on the results of this study, mitigation and adaptation measures should be considered, which include the controlling the rate of land subsidence, the reinforcement of coastal defence systems and the introduction of adaptation in long-term urban planning.     

A multidisciplinary study on the effects of climate change in the northern Adriatic Sea and the Marche region (central Italy)

An integrated analysis of recent climate change (including atmosphere, sea and land), and social reaction and adaptation, was conducted in central Italy and the northern portion of the Adriatic Sea. The collected environmental data included meteorological, oceanographic, and river gauges stations, covering the time period 1961–2009. Social data included 800 questionnaires and interviews carried out on selected samples of residents, decision-makers, and emergency managers. The trend analysis of air temperature data detailed an overall increase in all seasons, whereas rainfall data showed decrease in winter, spring, and summer, and increase in autumn, influencing river flow changes. Marine data showed a warming of the water column after the year 1990, particularly relevant in the cold season. Surface salinity increased in spring and summer and strongly decreased in autumn and also in winter (due to the spreading over the basin of the increased autumnal river runoff). These changes, combined with anthropogenic effects, appear to influence the northern Adriatic marine environment and ecosystems. Impacts in the coastal areas are also evident inland; the analysis of Aridity index, and potential water deficit, suggests negative impacts in terms of soil deterioration and agricultural productivity, particularly in the area near the coastline. At the same time, the analysis of social data revealed awareness among local residents of these impacts and associated risks connected to climate change. Yet, this awareness is not currently translated into preventive and protective actions; among the main reasons for this delay is also ineffective information exchange among citizens, public administrators, and the scientific community.     

Properties,performance and associated hazards of state-of-the-art durable water repellent (DWR) chemistry for textile finishing

Following the phase-out of long-chain per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), the textile industry had to find alternatives for side-chain fluorinated polymer based durable water repellent (DWR) chemistries that incorporated long perfluoroalkyl side chains. This phase-out and subsequent substitution with alternatives has resulted in a market where both fluorinated and non-fluorinated DWRs are available. These DWR alternatives can be divided into four broad groups that reflect their basic chemistry: side-chain fluorinated polymers, silicones, hydrocarbons and other chemistries (includes dendrimer and inorganic nanoparticle chemistries). In this critical review, the alternative DWRs are assessed with regards to their structural properties and connected performance, loss and degradation processes resulting in diffuse environmental emissions, and hazard profiles for selected emitted substances. Our review shows that there are large differences in performance between the alternative DWRs, most importantly the lack of oil repellence of non-fluorinated alternatives. It also shows that for all alternatives, impurities and/or degradation products of the DWR chemistries are diffusively emitted to the environment. Our hazard ranking suggests that hydrocarbon based DWR is the most environmentally benign, followed by silicone and side-chain fluorinated polymer-based DWR chemistries. Industrial commitments to reduce the levels of impurities in silicone based and side-chain fluorinated polymer based DWR formulations will lower the actual risks. There is a lack of information on the hazards associated with DWRs, in particular for the dendrimer and inorganic nanoparticle chemistries, and these data gaps must be filled. Until environmentally safe alternatives, which provide the required performance, are available our recommendation is to choose DWR chemistry on a case-by-case basis, always weighing the benefits connected to increased performance against the risks to the environment and human health.     

Plutonium(VI) accumulation and reduction by lichen biomass: correlation with U(VI)

The uptake of plutonium(VI) and uranium(VI) by lichen biomass was studied in the foliose lichen Parmotrema tinctorum to elucidate the migration behavior of Pu and U in the terrestrial environment. Pu and U uptake by P. tinctorum averaged 0.040+/-0.010 and 0.055+/-0.015 g gdry (-1), respectively, after 96 h incubation with 4.0 x 10(14) mol 1(-1) Pu solutions of pH 3, 4 and 5. SEM observations showed that the accumulated Pu is evenly distributed on the upper and lower surfaces of P. tinctorum, in contrast to U(VI), which accumulated in both cortical and medullary layers. UV/VIS absorption spectroscopy demonstrates that a fraction of Pu(VI) in the solution is reduced to Pu(V) by the organic substances released from P. tinctorum, and the accumulated Pu on the surface is reduced to Pu(IV), while U(VI) keeps the oxidation state of VI. Since the solubility of Pu(IV) hydroxides is very low, reduced Pu(VI) does not penetrate to the medullary layers, but is probably precipitated as Pu(IV) hydroxides on the cortical lichen surface. It is concluded that the uptake and reduction of Pu(VI) by lichens is important to determine the mobilization and oxidation states of Pu in the terrestrial environment.     

Effects of meteorology on ground-level ozone (GLO) concentrations and identifying the hot spots having significantly higher GLO concentration in a semi-urban area

The present study aims to analyse the influences of five meteorological parameters (temperature, wind speed, barometric pressure, rainfall, and solar radiations) on ground-level ozone (GLO) concentrations over the region of Ranchi Municipal Corporation (Jharkhand, India). The diurnal variation of GLO concentration and the meteorological parameters were analysed in each month to understand the associations. The results indicated that the correlation coefficients of GLO concentration with SR, AT, and DPT are found to be positive in each month and also statistically significant. But, the association between WS and GLO concentration was not uniform between the study days. Furthermore, the study also demonstrates an approach for identifying the hot spots that are having the higher level of GLO concentration. The hot spot maps were produced for each month to understand the shifting of the locations of hot spot locations. The results reveal that the hot spot locations are changes frequently in each case. Since the hot spot analysis was conducted with limited data, the presented hot spots are indicative and dependent on the meteorological conditions of the specific period and cannot be considered as a robust epidemiological study.     

Brain cancer associated with environmental lead exposure: Evidence from implementation of a National Petrol-Lead Phase-Out Program (PLPOP) in Taiwan between 1979 and 2007

Background and objectiveIn 1981, a Petrol-Lead Phase-Out Program (PLPOP) was launched in Taiwan for the abatement of environmental lead emissions. The present study was intended to examine whether the high Petrol-Lead Emission Areas (PLEA) would result in an increase in the incidence rate of brain cancer based on a national data bank.MethodsThe national brain cancer incidence data was obtained from the Taiwan National Cancer Registry. Age standardized incidence rates were calculated based on the 2000 WHO world standard population, and gasoline consumption data was obtained from the Bureau of Energy. The differences in the trend tests for age-standardized incidence rates of brain cancer between high, median, low, and small PLEA were analyzed.ResultsA significant increase was found from small to high PLEA in age-standardized incidence rates of brain cancer. By taking six possible confounders into account, the age-standardized incidence rates for brain cancer were highly correlated with the median and high PLEA by reference to the small PLEA.ConclusionAfter being adjusted for a number of relevant confounders, it could be concluded that high PLEA might result in an increase in the incidence rate of brain cancer resulting from high lead exposures.