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1.
The local and regional distribution of pollutants is significantly influenced by weather patterns and variability along with the spatial patterns of emissions. Therefore, climatic changes which affect local meteorological conditions can alter air quality. We use the regional air quality model CHIMERE driven by meteorological fields from regional climate change simulations to investigate changes in summer ozone mixing ratios over Europe under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Using three 30-year simulation periods, we find that daily peak ozone amounts as well as average ozone concentrations substantially increase during summer in future climate conditions. This is mostly due to higher temperatures and reduced cloudiness and precipitation over Europe and it leads to a higher number of ozone events exceeding information and warning thresholds. Our results show a pronounced regional variability, with the largest effects of climate change on ozone concentrations occurring over England, Belgium, Germany and France. The temperature-driven increase in biogenic emissions appears to enhance the ozone production and isoprene was identified as the most important chemical factor in the ozone sensitivity. We also find that summer ozone levels in future climate projections are similar to those found during the exceptionally warm and dry European summer of 2003. Our simulations suggest that in future climate conditions summer ozone might pose a much more serious threat to human health, agriculture and natural ecosystems in Europe, so that the effects of climate trends on pollutant amounts should be considered in future emission control measures.  相似文献   

2.
A regionally segmented multimedia fate model for the European continent is described together with an illustrative steady-state case study examining the fate of gamma-HCH (lindane) based on 1998 emission data. The study builds on the regionally segmented BETR North America model structure and describes the regional segmentation and parameterisation for Europe. The European continent is described by a 5 degrees x5 degrees grid, leading to 50 regions together with four perimetric boxes representing regions buffering the European environment. Each zone comprises seven compartments including; upper and lower atmosphere, soil, vegetation, fresh water and sediment and coastal water. Inter-regions flows of air and water are described, exploiting information originating from GIS databases and other georeferenced data. The model is primarily designed to describe the fate of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) within the European environment by examining chemical partitioning and degradation in each region, and inter-region transport either under steady-state conditions or fully dynamically. A test case scenario is presented which examines the fate of estimated spatially resolved atmospheric emissions of lindane throughout Europe within the lower atmosphere and surface soil compartments. In accordance with the predominant wind direction in Europe, the model predicts high concentrations close to the major sources as well as towards Central and Northeast regions. Elevated soil concentrations in Scandinavian soils provide further evidence of the potential of increased scavenging by forests and subsequent accumulation by organic-rich terrestrial surfaces. Initial model predictions have revealed a factor of 5-10 underestimation of lindane concentrations in the atmosphere. This is explained by an underestimation of source strength and/or an underestimation of European background levels. The model presented can further be used to predict deposition fluxes and chemical inventories, and it can also be adapted to provide characteristic travel distances and overall environmental persistence, which can be compared with other long-range transport prediction methods.  相似文献   

3.
An assessment of impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems has emphasized geographical variability in responses of species and ecosystems to environmental change. This variability is usually associated with north-south gradients in climate, biodiversity, vegetation zones, and ecosystem structure and function. It is clear, however, that significant east-west variability in environment, ecosystem structure and function, environmental history, and recent climate variability is also important. Some areas have cooled while others have become warmer. Also, east-west differences between geographical barriers of oceans, archipelagos and mountains have contributed significantly in the past to the ability of species and vegetation zones to relocate in response to climate changes, and they have created the isolation necessary for genetic differentiation of populations and biodiversity hot-spots to occur. These barriers will also affect the ability of species to relocate during projected future warming. To include this east-west variability and also to strike a balance between overgeneralization and overspecialization, the ACIA identified four major sub regions based on large-scale differences in weather and climate-shaping factors. Drawing on information, mostly model output that can be related to the four ACIA subregions, it is evident that geographical barriers to species re-location, particularly the distribution of landmasses and separation by seas, will affect the northwards shift in vegetation zones. The geographical constraints--or facilitation--of northward movement of vegetation zones will affect the future storage and release of carbon, and the exchange of energy and water between biosphere and atmosphere. In addition, differences in the ability of vegetation zones to re-locate will affect the biodiversity associated with each zone while the number of species threatened by climate change varies greatly between subregions with a significant hot-spot in Beringia. Overall, the subregional synthesis demonstrates the difficulty of generalizing projections of responses of ecosystem structure and function, species loss, and biospheric feedbacks to the climate system for the whole Arctic region and implies a need for a far greater understanding of the spatial variability in the responses of terrestrial arctic ecosystems to climate change.  相似文献   

4.
An episode selection procedure was developed and applied to select sets of days representing characteristic meteorological conditions leading to high ozone episodes over the Swiss Plateau. The selection procedure was applied to data extending from January 1991 through December 1998, and is comprised of two steps: First, days were classified according to observed air quality and meteorological characteristics using classification and regression trees analysis (CART). Second, the CART results were used in conjunction with observed air quality data to identify sets of days characteristic of those leading to elevated ozone. These sets of days were selected to optimise how well a limited number of days represented seasonal air quality, and that formed longer episodes for use in the air quality modelling. CART analysis was performed for three zones of the Swiss Plateau that have different air quality and meteorological characteristics. The results for two zones were used together in the episode selection procedure in order to identify days representative for the whole Plateau. Meteorological analysis for a third zone suggested that it would be strongly impacted by pollutants transported in from outside the country. One thousand and eight hundred optimisation runs were performed to minimise the likelihood that the set of days was a local optimum, increasing the robustness for use in air quality modelling analysis. Fifteen days, grouped in four episodes ranging from 3 to 5 days were selected along with their calculated representativeness (or weight) to recreate a seasonal metric. The variety of local as well as regional meteorological characteristics showed that the episode selection procedure chose days representing a diverse set of meteorological situations which are associated with elevated ozone. This set of episodes can now be used to test air quality strategies.  相似文献   

5.
In order to make projections for future air-quality levels, a robust methodology is needed that succeeds in reconstructing present-day air-quality levels. At present, climate projections for meteorological variables are available from Atmospheric-Ocean Coupled Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) but the temporal and spatial resolution is insufficient for air-quality assessment. Therefore, a variety of methods are tested in this paper in their ability to hindcast maximum 8 hourly levels of O3 and daily mean PM10 from observed meteorological data. The methods are based on a multiple linear regression technique combined with the automated Lamb weather classification. Moreover, we studied whether the above-mentioned multiple regression analysis still holds when driven by operational ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) meteorological data. The main results show that a weather type classification prior to the regression analysis is superior to a simple linear regression approach. In contrast to PM10 downscaling, seasonal characteristics should be taken into account during the downscaling of O3 time series. Apart from a lower explained variance due to intrinsic limitations of the regression approach itself, a lower variability of the meteorological predictors (resolution effect) and model deficiencies, this synoptic-regression-based tool is generally able to reproduce the relevant statistical properties of the observed O3 distributions important in terms of European air quality Directives and air quality mitigation strategies. For PM10, the situation is different as the approach using only meteorology data was found to be insufficient to explain the observed PM10 variability using the meteorological variables considered in this study.  相似文献   

6.
Impact of future climate changes on high pollution levels   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Changes in climate variability as well as changes in extreme weather and climate events in the 20th century, especially those that took place during the last two to three decades of the 20th century, have been discussed in many recent scientific publications. Attempts to project the results of such studies in the future have been made under different assumptions. In this paper, we have chosen one of the well-known scenarios predicting changes of the climate in the world during the last 30 years of the 21st century. This scenario is used, together with several general predictions related to the future climate, to produce three climatic scenarios. The derived climatic scenarios are used to calculate predictions for future pollution levels in Denmark and in Europe by applying the Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM), on a space domain containing the whole of Europe.  相似文献   

7.
Recent and future signatures of climate change in Europe   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
Kjellström E 《Ambio》2004,33(4-5):193-198
A set of six regional climate model experiments is investigated for future changes in daily temperature and precipitation in Europe. Changes in the probability distributions for these variables are studied. It is found that the asymmetry of these distributions change differently depending on location and season. Large summertime changes in extremely high temperatures in central, eastern and southern Europe are followed by higher than average temperature increases on warm days in general. Likewise, temperatures on cold days increase much more than the average temperature increase during winter in eastern and northern Europe. A comparison with historical data on wintertime temperature shows that the model simulated and observed daily variability are similar. In particular, the much stronger increase in temperatures on cold days, compared to the average temperature increase as observed in warm compared to cold historical periods, is simulated also by the model. The contribution from heavy precipitation events is simulated to increase over most parts of Europe in all seasons.  相似文献   

8.
Current approaches to modelling the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment have evolved in response to four dominant characteristics of these substances; namely: (1) the presence of POPs in virtually all environmental phases and the ease with which they move from one to the other requires multi-compartmental modelling. Describing transport across phase boundaries becomes as, or even more, important as quantifying transport within the phases; (2) POPs may persist in the environment for many decades. For chemicals that 'have time', concepts such as equilibrium partitioning and steady-state become more important than for short-lived substances whose fate is more controlled by the rates of transformation; (3) measuring POPs is difficult and expensive and observed concentrations of POPs are not available in high spatial or temporal resolution. Consequently, high resolution tends not to be a high priority in POP models; and (4) detrimental effects of POPs often manifest themselves in top predators, which has led to a focus on modelling biotic uptake and transfer within food chains. The task of building a POPs model is viewed as combining the four 'building blocks' of partitioning, transport, transformation and source data with the help of the law of the conservation of mass. Process models, evaluative models, models of real local, regional and global fate, as well as biological uptake models are presented and references to numerous examples are provided. An attempt is made to forecast future directions in the field of POPs modelling. It is expected that modelling techniques that do not rely on quantitative emission estimates as well as approaches that take into account spatial, temporal and climatic variability as well as parameter uncertainty will increase in importance. Finally, the relationship between modelling POPs and models of other pollutant issues is addressed, as are potential interactions between POPs and pollutant issues such as eutrophication, acidification and global climate change.  相似文献   

9.
Recently several regional air quality projects were carried out to support the negotiation under the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme by predicting the impact of emission control policies with an ensemble of models. Within these projects, CITYDELTA and EURODELTA, the fate of air quality at the scale of European cities or that of the European continent was studied using several models. In this article we focus on the results of EURODELTA. The predictive skill of the ensemble of models is described for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and secondary inorganic compounds, and the uncertainty in air quality modelling is examined through the model ensemble spread of concentrations.For ozone daily maxima the ensemble spread origin differs from one region to another. In the neighbourhood of cities or in mountainous areas the spread of predicted values does not span the range of observed data, due to poorly resolved emissions or complex-terrain meteorology. By contrast in Atlantic and North Sea coastal areas the spread of predicted values is found to be larger than the observations. This is attributed to large differences in the boundary conditions used in the different models. For NO2 daily averages the ensemble spread is generally too small compared with observations. This is because models miss highest values occurring in stagnant meteorology in stable boundary layers near cities. For secondary particulate matter compounds the simulated concentration spread is more balanced, observations falling nearly equiprobably within the ensemble, and the spread originates both from meteorology and aerosol chemistry and thermodynamics.  相似文献   

10.
11.
EU's programme Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) is presently revising the policy on air quality which will lead to the adoption of a thematic strategy on air pollution under the Sixth Environmental Action Programme by mid-2005. For the abatement of surface ozone it is becoming evident that processes outside European control will be crucial for meeting long-term aims and air quality guidelines in Europe in the future. Measurements and modelling results indicate that there is a strong link between climate change and surface ozone. A warmer and dryer European climate is very likely to lead to increased ozone concentrations. Furthermore, increased anthropogenic emissions in developing economies in Asia are likely to raise the hemispheric background level of ozone. A significant increase in the background concentration of ozone has been observed at several sites in Northern Europe although the underlying causes are not settled. The photochemical formation of tropospheric ozone from increased concentrations of methane and CO may also lead to a higher ozone level on a global scale. Gradually, these effects may outweigh the effect of the reduced European ozone precursor emissions. This calls for a global or hemispheric perspective in the revision of the European air quality policy for ozone.  相似文献   

12.
This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed.Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies.Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management.  相似文献   

13.
Regional scale modelling of both ozone deposition and the risk of ozone impacts is poorly developed for grassland communities. This paper presents new predictions of stomatal ozone flux to grasslands at five different locations in Europe, using a mechanistic model of canopy development for productive grasslands to generate time series of leaf area index and soil water potential as inputs to the stomatal component of the DO(3)SE ozone deposition model. The parameterisation of both models was based on Lolium perenne, a dominant species of productive pasture in Europe. The modelled seasonal time course of stomatal ozone flux to both the whole canopy and to upper leaves showed large differences between climatic zones, which depended on the timing of the start of the growing season, the effect of soil water potential, and the frequency of hay cuts. Values of modelled accumulated flux indices and the AOT40 index showed a five-fold difference between locations, but the locations with the highest flux differed depending on the index used; the period contributing to the accumulation of AOT40 did not always coincide with the modelled period of active ozone canopy uptake. Use of a fixed seasonal profile of leaf area index in the flux model produced very different estimates of annual accumulated total canopy and leaf ozone flux when compared with the flux model linked to a simulation of canopy growth. Regional scale model estimates of both the risks of ozone impacts and of total ozone deposition will be inaccurate unless the effects of climate and management in modifying grass canopy growth are incorporated.  相似文献   

14.
Air quality zones are used by regulatory authorities to implement ambient air standards in order to protect human health. Air quality measurements at discrete air monitoring stations are critical tools to determine whether an air quality zone complies with local air quality standards or is noncompliant. This study presents a novel approach for evaluation of air quality zone classification methods by breaking the concentration distribution of a pollutant measured at an air monitoring station into compliance and exceedance probability density functions (PDFs) and then using Monte Carlo analysis with the Central Limit Theorem to estimate long-term exposure. The purpose of this paper is to compare the risk associated with selecting one ambient air classification approach over another by testing the possible exposure an individual living within a zone may face. The chronic daily intake (CDI) is utilized to compare different pollutant exposures over the classification duration of 3 years between two classification methods. Historical data collected from air monitoring stations in Kuwait are used to build representative models of 1-hr NO2 and 8-hr O3 within a zone that meets the compliance requirements of each method. The first method, the “3 Strike” method, is a conservative approach based on a winner-take-all approach common with most compliance classification methods, while the second, the 99% Rule method, allows for more robust analyses and incorporates long-term trends. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to model the CDI for each pollutant and each method with the zone at a single station and with multiple stations. The model assumes that the zone is already in compliance with air quality standards over the 3 years under the different classification methodologies. The model shows that while the CDI of the two methods differs by 2.7% over the exposure period for the single station case, the large number of samples taken over the duration period impacts the sensitivity of the statistical tests, causing the null hypothesis to fail. Local air quality managers can use either methodology to classify the compliance of an air zone, but must accept that the 99% Rule method may cause exposures that are statistically more significant than the 3 Strike method.

Implications: A novel method using the Central Limit Theorem and Monte Carlo analysis is used to directly compare different air standard compliance classification methods by estimating the chronic daily intake of pollutants. This method allows air quality managers to rapidly see how individual classification methods may impact individual population groups, as well as to evaluate different pollutants based on dosage and exposure when complete health impacts are not known.  相似文献   


15.
The Stockholm Convention and the Global Monitoring Plan encourage the production of monitoring data to effectively evaluate the presence of the persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in all regions, in order to identify changes in levels over time, as well as to provide information on their regional and global environmental transport. Here, we report the first step of two to investigate whether butter is a feasible matrix to screen with the purpose to reflect regional ambient atmospheric air levels of POPs. The first step described here is to generate monitoring data; the second is to investigate the relationship between the two matrixes, i.e., POP concentrations in air and butter, which will be reported in another article published in this journal. Here, the 27 organochlorine pesticides listed under the Stockholm Convention have been analyzed in 75 butter samples from Europe. The general conclusions were as follows: Total organochlorine pesticide concentration is lower in butter from northern and central Europe. The spatial gradient of 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-di(4-chlorophenyl)ethane and hexachlorocyclohexane is increasing in the eastern region of Europe (Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine), dieldrin towards France, and endosulfan levels were elevated on the Azores Island in the Atlantic Ocean. One butter sample from Romania exceeded the European Maximum Residue Limit value for lindane, but the other butter pesticide levels were all below the limit values. The dataset reported here can be used for the calibration of the air–grass–dairy products model, which would support the feasibility to use butter as biomonitor for measuring POP levels in ambient air.  相似文献   

16.
The environmental fate of the worldwide used herbicide isoproturon was studied in four different, undisturbed lysimeters in the temperate zone of Middle Europe. To exclude climatic effects due to location, soils were collected at different regions in southern Germany and analyzed at a lysimeter station under identical environmental conditions. 14C-isoproturon mineralization varied between 2.59% and 57.95% in the different soils. Barley plants grown on these lysimeters accumulated 14C-pesticide residues from soil in partially high amounts and emitted 14CO2 in an extent between 2.01% and 13.65% of the applied 14C-pesticide. Plant uptake and 14CO2 emissions from plants were inversely linked to the mineralization of the pesticide in the various soils: High isoproturon mineralization in soil resulted in low plant uptake whereas low isoproturon mineralization in soil resulted in high uptake of isoproturon residues in crop plants and high 14CO2 emission from plant surfaces. The soil water regime was identified as an essential factor that regulates degradation and plant uptake of isoproturon whereby the intensity of the impact of this factor is strongly dependent on the soil type.  相似文献   

17.
The use of mosses as biomonitors operates as an indicator of their concentration in the environment, becoming a methodology which provides a significant interpretation in terms of environmental quality. The different types of pollution are variables that can not be measured directly in the environment - latent variables. Therefore, we propose the use of factor analysis to estimate these variables in order to use them for spatial modelling. On the contrary, the main aim of the commonly used principal components analysis method is to explain the variability of observed variables and it does not permit to explicitly identify the different types of environmental contamination. We propose to model the concentration of each heavy metal as a linear combination of its main sources of pollution, similar to the case of multiple regression where these latent variables are identified as covariates, though these not being observed. Moreover, through the use of geostatistical methodologies, we suggest to obtain maps of predicted values for the different sources of pollution. With this, we summarize the information acquired from the concentration measurements of the various heavy metals, and make possible to easily determine the locations that suffer from a particular source of pollution.  相似文献   

18.
Reliable prediction of the unsaturated zone transport and attenuation of dissolved-phase VOC (volatile organic compound) plumes leached from shallow source zones is a complex, multi-process, environmental problem. It is an important problem as sources, which include solid-waste landfills, aqueous-phase liquid discharge lagoons and NAPL releases partially penetrating the unsaturated zone, may persist for decades. Natural attenuation processes operating in the unsaturated zone that, uniquely for VOCs includes volatilisation, may, however, serve to protect underlying groundwater and potentially reduce the need for expensive remedial actions. Review of the literature indicates that only a few studies have focused upon the overall leached VOC source and plume scenario as a whole. These are mostly modelling studies that often involve high strength, non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) sources for which density-induced and diffusive vapour transport is significant. Occasional dissolved-phase aromatic hydrocarbon controlled infiltration field studies also exist. Despite this lack of focus on the overall problem, a wide range of process-based unsaturated zone - VOC research has been conducted that may be collated to build good conceptual model understanding of the scenario, particularly for the much studied aromatic hydrocarbons and chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons (CAHs). In general, the former group is likely to be attenuated in the unsaturated zone due to their ready aerobic biodegradation, albeit with rate variability across the literature, whereas the fate of the latter is far less likely to be dominated by a single mechanism and dependent upon the relative importance of the various attenuation processes within individual site - VOC scenarios. Analytical and numerical modelling tools permit effective process representation of the whole scenario, albeit with potential for inclusion of additional processes - e.g., multi-mechanistic sorption phase partitioning, and provide good opportunity for further sensitivity analysis and development to practitioner use. There remains a significant need to obtain intermediate laboratory-scale and particularly field-scale (actual site and controlled release) datasets that address the scenario as a whole and permit validation of the available models. Integrated assessment of the range of simultaneous processes that combine to influence leached plume generation, transport and attenuation in the unsaturated zone is required. Component process research needs are required across the problem scenario and include: the simultaneous volatilisation and dissolution of source zones; development of appropriate field-scale dispersion estimates for the unsaturated zone; assessment of transient VOC exchanges between aqueous, vapour and sorbed phases and their influence upon plume attenuation; development of improved field methods to recognise and quantify biodegradation of CAHs; establishment of the influence of co-contaminants; and, finally, translation of research findings into more robust practitioner practice.  相似文献   

19.
Over a period of several decades multiple leaks of large volumes from storage facilities located near Hnevice (Czech Republic) have caused the underlying Quaternary aquifer to be severely contaminated with nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) petroleum hydrocarbons. Beginning in the late 1980's the NAPL plume started to shrink as a consequence of NAPL dissolution exceeding replenishment and due to active remediation. The subsurface was classified geochemically into four different zones, (i) a contaminant-free zone never occupied by NAPL or dissolved contaminants, (ii) a re-oxidation zone formerly occupied by NAPL, (iii) a zone currently occupied by NAPL, and (iv) a lower fringe zone between the overlying NAPL and the deeper underlying contaminant-free zone. The study investigated the spatial and temporal variability of the redox zonation at the Hnevice site and quantified the influence of iron-cycling on the overall electron balance. As a first step inverse geochemical modelling was carried out to identify possible reaction models and mass transfer processes. In a subsequent step, two-dimensional (forward) multi-component reactive transport modelling was performed to evaluate and quantify the major processes that control the geochemical evolution at the site. The study explains the observed enrichment of the lower fringe zone with ferrihydrite as a result of the re-oxidation of ferrous iron. It suggests that once the NAPL zone started to shrink the dissolution of previously formed siderite and FeS by oxygen and nitrate consumed a significant part of the oxidation capacity for a considerable time period and therefore limited the penetration of electron acceptors into the NAPL contaminated zone.  相似文献   

20.
The purpose of this study was to investigate common pesticides in stored wheat at Kermanshah province's silos in Iran. A simple, inexpensive, reliable and environmentally friendly method based on dispersive liquid–liquid microextraction with solidification of floating organic drop was developed. The analytical characteristics of the method were determined. Also, various parameters such as the materials of the silos, types of ownerships of the silos, geographic orientation of silo locations and climatic conditions of silo locations on pesticide residues in studied wheat samples were investigated. Among all the studied parameters, the climatic conditions of silo locations showed the highest influence on pesticide residues in wheat samples. Generally, 61.2% of the samples had pesticide levels below the method detection limits and 38.8% of the total samples had at least one of the understudied pesticides. Also, 13.9% of the samples had deltamethrin residues, 16.7% of the samples had permethrin, 22.2% of the samples had malathion, 11.1% of the samples had both permethrin and malathion and 2.8% of the samples had both deltamethrin and malathion. The results revealed that the residues of deltamethrin and malathion were lower than the standard level announced by European Union regulation and only three samples contained permethrin higher than Europe standard level.  相似文献   

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