Forecasting Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations in the Athens Basin

In the work ozone data from the Liossion monitoring station of the Athens/PERPA network are analysed. Data cover the months May to September for the period 1987–93. Four statistical models, three multiple regression and one ARIMA (0,1,2), for the prediction of the daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentrations are developed. All models together, with a persistence forecast, are evaluated and compared with the 1993's data, not used in the models development. Validation statistics were used to assess the relative accuracy of models. Analysis, concerning the models' ability to forecast real ozone episodes, was also carried out. Two of the three regression models provide the most accurate forecasts. The ARIMA model had the worst performance, even lower than the persistence one. The forecast skill of a bivariate wind speed and persistence based regression model for ozone episode days was found to be quite satisfactory, with a detection rate of 73% and 60% for O3 >180 g m-3 and O3 >200 g m-3, respectively.     

Grey Box and Component Models to Forecast Ozone Episodes: A Comparison Study

For the purpose of short-term forecasting of high ozone concentration episodes stochastic models have been suggested and developed in the literature. The present paper compares the quality of forecasts produced by a grey box and a component time-series model. The summer ozone patterns for three European urban areas (two continental and one mediterranean) are processed. By means of forecast performance indices according to EC and WHO guidelines, the following features of the models could be found: The grey box model is highly adaptive and produces forecasts with low error variance that increases with the time horizon of forecast. The component model is more 'stiff' that results in a higher forecast-error variance and poorer adaption in detail. The forecast horizon, however, could be enlarged with this model. The accuracy of predicting threshold exceedance is similar for both models. This can be understood from the assumption of a cyclical time development of ozone that was made for both models.     

Comparison of ozone levels between working days and weekends in Athens,Greece

Athens has a major problem of ozone air pollution due to its climate which is dominated by hot and dry summers with intensesunshine. As a result there is a high violation of the air quality limits of ozone. By comparing ozone air pollution betweenweekdays and weekends it is possible to estimate the effect of the reduction of primary pollutants causing the formation ofozone on the levels of this pollutant. Thus it was estimated thatwhile during the weekends the concentrations of the ozone precursors (nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds) werereduced by the order of 10–20%, the effect on ozone levels was lower.     

A New All Season Passive Sampling System for Monitoring Ozone in Air

A new all season passive sampling system for monitoring O₃ in the atmosphere has been developed in the laboratory and validated in the field. The unique features for this system include a newly designed passive sampler and a rain shelter, which allow the passive sampler to be installed in the field facing downwards. An equation associated with meteorological parameters is used to calculate the passive sampling rates. This system has been extensively tested in the lab (temperature from –18 to 20°C, relative humidity from 13 to 81%, and wind speed from 0.5 to 150 cm/s) and validated in the field in climates of all seasons. The accuracy of the ozone concentrations in the atmosphere obtained with the use of the new passive sampling system was higher than 85% compared to those obtained with continuous ozone analyzers. The new ozone passive sampling system can be used to measure ambient O₃ concentrations ranging from 3 ppb to 1000 ppb based on one-day exposure and 0.1 ppb to 140 ppb for a monthly exposure period. It is also reasonable to conclude that the new passive sampling system can be used for eight-hour exposure study because of the low field blanks and high sampling rates.     

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Ozone Concentrations at High Altitude Monitoring Sites in Germany

The present study deals with the characterisation and interpretation of hourly taken maximum ozone concentrations of each day at various high altitude monitoring sites in Germany and contributes to the understanding of ozone transport processes. The relation between long range transport of ozone as well as its precursors and high ozone concentrations is of special interest. Aim of this paper is to investigate the influence and importance of large scale meteorological circulation and source regions of anthropogenic ozone precursors to local ozone concentrations using 2-dimensional backward trajectories. Further, reasons for the spatial and temporal variation of ozone concentration levels will be shown. Investigating numerous cases a similar origin of air masses causing high ozone concentrations in Germany and uniform patterns at various sites could be identified.     

The Characteristics of Tropospheric Ozone Seasonality Observed from Ozone Soundings at Pohang, Korea

This paper presents the first analysis of vertical ozone sounding measurements over Pohang, Korea. The main focus is to analyze the seasonal variation of vertical ozone profiles and determine the mechanisms controlling ozone seasonality. The maxima ozone at the surface and in the free troposphere are observed in May and June, respectively. In comparison with the ozone seasonality at Oki (near sea level) and Happo (altitude of 1840 m) in Japan, which are located at the same latitude as of Pohang, we have found that the time of the ozone maximum at the Japanese sites is always a month earlier than at Pohang. Analysis of the wind flow at the surface shows that the wind shifts from westerly to southerly in May over Japan, but in June over Pohang. However, this wind shift above boundary layer occurs a month later. This wind shift results in significantly smaller amounts of ozone because the southerly wind brings clean wet tropical air. It has been suggested that the spring ozone maximum in the lower troposphere is due to polluted air transported from China. However, an enhanced ozone amount over the free troposphere in June appears to have a different origin. A tongue-like structure in the time-height cross-section of ozone concentrations, which starts from the stratosphere and extends to the middle troposphere, suggests that the ozone enhancement occurs due to a gradual migration of ozone from the stratosphere. The high frequency of dry air with elevated ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere in June suggests that the air is transported from the stratosphere. HYSPLIT trajectory analysis supports the hypothesis that enhanced ozone in the free troposphere is not likely due to transport from sources of anthropogenic activity.     

Extreme Nitrogen Oxide and Ozone Concentrations in Athens Atmosphere in Relation to Meteorological Conditions

In the present study, we investigate the variation of NO _x (NO + NO₂) and O₃ concentrations and the relation between the extreme events (episodes) of NO _x and O₃ concentrations and the relevant meteorological conditions in the urban atmosphere of the Athens basin. Hourly data of NO, NO₂ and O₃ concentrations from 10 representative monitoring sites located in the Athens basin were used, covering the 10-year time period from 1994 to 2003. The results of our analysis show that the concentrations of air pollutants differ significantly from one monitoring site to another, due to the location and proximity of each station to the emission sources. For each site, there are also significant differences in NO _x and O₃ concentrations from day to day, as well as from month to month and/or from season to season. The annual and seasonal variations show higher NO values in winter and lower in summer. On the contrary, NO₂ and O₃ values are higher in summer (photochemical production of O₃) and lower in winter. These differences are attributed, to a large extent, to the prevailing synoptic and meteorological conditions, the most important between them being the wind direction and speed as well as the atmospheric pressure. Our analysis of the identified 179 extreme NO _x air pollution events shows that most of them took place under anticyclonic conditions, associated with calm or weak winds (speed <2.5 ms⁻¹) of mostly southern to southwestern directions, as well as with low air temperatures and intense stable surface atmospheric conditions. There exists a significant decreasing tendency in NO _x air pollution episodic events over the 10-year study period, resulting in very few to none events in the period from 2000 to 2003. As far as it concerns the extreme O₃ concentrations, 34 air pollution events were identified, occurring under high air temperatures, variable weak winds and intense solar irradiation. The trends of O₃ concentrations are stronger in suburban sites than in urban ones.     

Sampling and Analysis of Volatile Organic Compounds Emitted from Leaded and Unleaded Gasoline Powered Motor Vehicles

Forecasts of air quality provide information to the general public during periods with high levels of air pollution. Criteria for testing the validity and reliability of forecast systems are discussed. As the objectives of a forecast may widely differ (providing information to the public or triggering short-term emission reduction measures) there is not a single evaluation procedure. It is recommended to use a set of performance indicators. The strong year-to-year variability in occurrence of smog episodes makes it necessarily to use several years of data in the evaluation.     

Ozone Indicators Determined at Rural Sites in the Eastern United States by two Monitoring Networks

Ozone levels at Clean Air Status andTrends Network (CASTNet) and nearby rurally-designatedState and Local Air Monitoring Stations (SLAMS) siteslocated in the eastern United States (U.S.) arecompared using daily indicators (i.e., maximum, range,and SUM06) based on hourly O₃ measurements. Comparisons are also made using monthly and summertimethree-month SUM06 determinations aggregated from dailydata. Comparison of O₃ indicators at the pairedCASTNet-SLAMS sites generally shows better agreementfor O₃ maximum than for range or SUM06. Thehighest correlation of daily O₃ indicators occursfor paired sites that are separated by less than 100miles, and the correlation diminishes with increasingseparation distance. Correlation coefficients exceed0.70 in 49% of the comparisons of maximum, in23% of range comparisons and in 5% ofSUM06 comparisons, suggesting that substitution ofSLAMS for CASTNet O₃ measurements would fail tocapture a substantial amount of the variability inO₃ indicators present at the CASTNet sites. Correlations of O₃ indicators at CASTNet andpaired nearby SLAMS sites are 0.80 in a relativelysmall number of cases. Despite the high correlationin even these cases, O₃ behavior at paired sitesis not identical and shows systematic differences thatare reflected in the O₃ minimum, hourly averageconcentrations, and the monthly and three-month SUM06. Ozone measurements at nearby rurally-designated SLAMSsites may not capture the `rural' nature of the airquality being monitored at CASTNet sites and, in mostcases, may not be sufficiently representative of theconcentration at CASTNet sites to permit O₃measurements at SLAMS sites to be used in lieu ofmeasurements at CASTNet sites. As a result, if ruralO₃ concentration data are needed, then O₃monitoring at carefully chosen, rurally representativesites is recommended.     

Measurements and Modelling of Air Pollution in a Street Canyon in Helsinki

A measuring campaign was conducted in the street canyon 'Runeberg street' in Helsinki in 1997. Hourly concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_X), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and ozone (O₃) were measured at the street and roof levels, and the relevant hourly meteorological parameters were measured at the roof level. The hourly street level measurements and on-site electronic traffic counts were conducted during the whole year 1997, and roof level measurements were conducted during approximately two months, from 3 March to 30 April in 1997. The Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) was used to calculate the street concentrations and the results were compared with the measurements. The overall agreement between measured and predicted concentrations was good for CO and NO_x, but the model slightly overestimated the measured concentrations of NO₂. The database, which contains all measured and predicted data, is available for a further testing of other street canyon dispersion models.     

The Seasonal Variation of the Concentrations of Ozone, Sulfur Dioxide, and Nitrogen Oxides in Two Nigerian Cities

A combination of multivariate statistical methods including factor analysis, principal component analysis, principal component regression, and multiple linear regression (MLR) were employed to evaluate the influence of seasons on the concentrations of ozone, sulfur (IV) oxide, and oxides of nitrogen in ambient air of Nigerian cities of Lagos and Ilorin. The former city is located in the coastal area, and it is highly congested with a high intensity of marine, vehicular, and industrial activities, and the latter city is a medium size town, located in the central guinea savannah zone of Nigeria. Samples were collected using a high-volume sampler from near the ground at various sites of diverse human and industrial activities, during wet and dry seasons from 2003 to 2006. The PCA reveals three distinct groupings during the day for all data, which is a reflection of different factors contributing to the atmospheric chemistry of these cities. The predicted ozone concentration values by MLR agree fairly well with the measured data. The dependence of ozone on meteorological parameters including relative humidity, air temperature, and sun exposure and the precursor pollutants depends on weather and the anthropogenic activities. The results for the two cities indicate that reduction in the level of NO₂ is accompanied by an increase in the level of ozone, suggesting the interconversion between the two via photochemical activity.     

Comparison of Numerical Street Dispersion Models with Results from Wind Tunnel and Field Measurements

Numerical dispersion models developed and validated in different European countries were applied to data sets from wind tunnel and field measurements. The comparison includes the Danish Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) and the microscale flow and dispersion model MISKAM. The latter is recommended for application in built-up areas in the draft of the new German guideline VDI 3782/8. In a first step the models were applied to simplified street configurations. Different parameters as length and height of adjacent buildings and the angle of the incoming flow were varied. The results were compared to recent wind tunnel measurements. In a second step the models were applied to two extensively investigated field data sets from Jagtvej, Copenhagen and G ttinger Straße, Hannover. Intensified and more transparent and accessible validation procedures would be helpful for the thorough user.     

Visual Assessment of Foliar Injury Induced by Ozone on Indicator Tobacco Plants: A Data Quality Evaluation

A group of 50 inexperienced scorers were asked to estimate –using standard reference photos – foliar injury induced by the gas pollutant ozone on the supersensitive indicator planttobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) cv. Bel-W3. Theaverage accuracy level was 56.1% (95.9% when theclasses nearest to the reality were also consideredcorrect) and the average repeatability was 65.4%. Theextreme classes were easily scored. Central classesproved to be more difficult to be evaluated: this maydepend on the fact that two leaves may have similaractual total injured area, but substantially differentnumbers and spatial distribution of the lesions. Insome cases we observed a prevalence of overestimationerrors in the high classes and underestimation in thelow classes: this is in contradiction with theWeber-Fechner law. It is noteworthy the very shorttime required by operators to score, regardless of the results.     

臭氧综合指数与臭氧潜势指数的构建与应用

随着社会经济的快速发展,我国臭氧污染日益严重,因此,研发出能定量评估气象条件对臭氧污染影响程度的诊断指数,成为提高和改善气象服务质量的重要任务之一。利用中国大陆地区2018年温度、总云量、风速、风向、相对湿度等气象场数据与臭氧浓度数据,研究臭氧污染敏感气象条件,统计各气象因子分布在不同数值区间时发生臭氧污染事件的相对频率(即分指数),按照分指数最大值和最小值的差值大小进行排序,筛选出10个与臭氧污染密切相关的气象因子,将10个气象因子的分指数进行累加,即得出臭氧综合指数。随后,对各地构建臭氧综合指数时采用的气象要素进行统计,得到出现频率最高的3个气象要素,并参考这些气象要素构建了臭氧潜势指数。分别以臭氧潜势指数和臭氧综合指数对北京市2019年臭氧日最大浓度建立拟合预报模型,结果表明:两类指数的拟合预报值与实测值有着相似的变化趋势;利用臭氧综合指数计算得到的预报值与实测值的相关系数为0.76,优于利用臭氧潜势指数计算得到的预报值与实测值的相关系数(0.64)。     

Calculating losses of crops in Denmark caused by high ozone levels

In order to help guide air pollution legislation at the European level, harmful air pollution effects on agriculture crops and the consequent economic implications for policy have been studied for more than a decade. Ozone has been labeled as the most serious of the damaging air pollutants to agriculture, where growth rates and consequently yields are dramatically reduced. Quantifying the effects has formed a key factor in policymaking. Based on the widely held view that AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over Threshold of 40 ppb) is a good indicator of ozone-induced damage, the Danish Eulerian Model (DEM) was used to compute reduced agriculture yields on a 50 km×50 km grid over Europe. In one set of scenarios, a ten year meteorological time series was combined with realistic emission inventories. In another, various idealized emission reduction scenarios are applied to the same meteorological time series. The results show substantial inter-annual variability in economic losses, due in most part to meteorological conditions which varied much more substantially than the emissions during the same period. It is further shown that, taking all uncertainties into account, estimates of ozone-induced economic losses require that a long meteorological record is included in the analysis, for statistical significance to be improved to acceptable levels for use in policy analysis. In this study, calculations were made for Europe as a whole, though this paper presents results relevant for Denmark.     

Monitoring Air Quality in Mountains: Designing an Effective Network

A quantitatively robust yet parsimonious air-quality monitoring network in mountainous regions requires special attention to relevant spatial and temporal scales of measurement and inference. The design of monitoring networks should focus on the objectives required by public agencies, namely: 1) determine if some threshold has been exceeded (e.g., for regulatory purposes), and 2) identify spatial patterns and temporal trends (e.g., to protect natural resources). A short-term, multi-scale assessment to quantify spatial variability in air quality is a valuable asset in designing a network, in conjunction with an evaluation of existing data and simulation-model output. A recent assessment in Washington state (USA) quantified spatial variability in tropospheric ozone distribution ranging from a single watershed to the western third of the state. Spatial and temporal coherence in ozone exposure modified by predictable elevational relationships ( 1.3 ppbv ozone per 100 m elevation gain) extends from urban areas to the crest of the Cascade Range. This suggests that a sparse network of permanent analyzers is sufficient at all spatial scales, with the option of periodic intensive measurements to validate network design. It is imperative that agencies cooperate in the design of monitoring networks in mountainous regions to optimize data collection and financial efficiencies.     

Development of an Ozone Forecasting Model for Non-Attainment Areas in the State of Ohio

Ground level ozone is responsible for the formation ofsmog, and for a variety of adverse effects on bothhuman and plant life. High concentrations of groundlevel ozone occur during the summer months. This paperdescribes the development of a model to forecast themaximum daily concentration of ozone as a function ofthe maximum surface temperature, for ozonenon-attainment regions in Ohio. The model wasdeveloped by statistical analysis of existing data.Site-specific models were developed initially. Theverification and evaluation of the performancecriteria of the model at each site were explored bycomparing the model with an independent datasetcollected from that site. A generalized statewidemodel was developed from the site-specific models. Theperformance criteria of this model were verified andevaluated by employing the same independent datasetsemployed for the site-specific models. An exceedencemodel to predict the occurrence of ozone exceedencesover 100 ppb has also been presented.     

Foliar Phenolics in Sugar Maple (Acer Saccharum) as a Potential Indicator of Tropospheric Ozone Pollution

Tropospheric O₃ has been implicated in the declining health of forest ecosystems in Europe and North America and has been shown to have negative consequences on human health. We have measured tropospheric ozone (O₃) in the lower canopy through the use of passive monitors located in five woodlots along a 150 km urban–rural transect, originating in the large urban complex of Toronto, Canada. We also sampled foliage from 10 mature sugar maple trees in each woodlot and measured the concentration of a number of phenolic compounds and macronutrients. O₃ concentrations were highest in the two rural woodlots, located approximately 150 km downwind of Toronto, when compared to the woodlots found within the Greater Toronto Area. Foliar concentrations of three flavonoids, avicularin, isoquercitrin, and quercitrin, were significantly greater and nitrogen concentrations significantly lower at these same rural woodlots, suggesting some physiological disruption is occurring in those sites where exposure to tropospheric O₃ is greater. We suggest that foliar phenolics of sugar maple may be a biochemical indicator of tropospheric ozone exposure.     

2022年新冠疫情期间昆山市近地面臭氧特征及成因分析

为研究2022年新冠疫情期间管控措施对昆山市空气质量产生的影响,分析了疫情前期及管控期大气污染物(尤其是臭氧O₃)浓度的变化特征,并对O₃的空间分布、成因及来源进行了解析。结果表明:疫情管控后,一次污染物浓度呈递进式降低,而 O₃日最大8 h滑动平均质量浓度(O₃-8 h)显著上升,其中管控中期的污染最严重,明显超过历史同期水平。空间分布上O₃-8 h高值区主要集中在市区西部(高新区)及西北部区域,较2021年增幅显著。NO₂浓度下降比与O₃-8 h上升比的空间分布呈现出良好的对应关系,NO₂降幅高的区域O₃-8 h增幅也高,同时两者浓度变化呈非线性相关,当NO₂浓度达到一个临界值时,O₃浓度随之出现下降。典型污染过程中O₃日变化仍为显著的“单峰型”,但振幅明显增大,O₃与气温、能见度、日照呈显著正相关,与相对湿度和气压呈显著负相关。结合风向及后向轨迹聚类分析来看,此次污染气团主要来自浙江、安徽等地,占总气团输入的64%左右。