The perceived psychological distance of climate change impacts and its influence on support for adaptation policy

Factors influencing support for climate mitigation policy in the United States are well researched, however, research regarding individuals’ support for climate adaptation policy is relatively sparse. This study explores how an individual’s perception of climate change impacts may influence their support for adaptation actions. Results of a survey of the U.S. public (n = 653) indicates that individuals who believe climate change impacts are unlikely to happen or will primarily affect other people in other places are less likely to be concerned about climate change impacts and less likely to support climate adaptation. However, an individual’s support for climate change adaptation measures is not influenced by their perception of when climate change impacts will occur even when taking into account concern for climate impacts. Critical for policy-makers, a belief that climate adaptation measures will not be effective attenuates the relationship between psychological distance, concern for climate change impacts, and adaptation policy measures. Our results indicate that to effectively communicate about climate change, policy-makers should emphasize that: (i) climate change impacts are occurring, (ii) that their constituents are being affected now, or will be in the future, and (iii) communicate that adaptation measures can be effective in addressing risks associated with climate change impacts.     

Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions.     

Modeling increased demand of energy for air conditioners and consequent CO2 emissions to minimize health risks due to climate change in India

Developing countries situated mostly in latitudes that are projected for the highest climate change impact in the twenty-first century will also have a predictable increase in demand on energy sources. India presents us with a unique opportunity to study this phenomenon in a large developing country. This study finds that climate adaptation policies of India should consider the significance of air conditioners (A/Cs) in mitigation of human vulnerability due to unpredictable weather events such as heat waves. However, the energy demand due to air conditioning usage alone will be in the range of an extra ～750,000 GWh to ～1,350,000 GWh with a 3.7 °C increase in surface temperatures under different population scenarios and increasing incomes by the year 2100. We project that residential A/C usage by 2100 will result in CO₂ emissions of 592 Tg to 1064 Tg. This is significant given that India's total contribution to global CO₂ emissions in 2009 was measured at 1670 Tg and country's residential and commercial electricity consumption in 2007 was estimated at 145,000 GWh.     

Effects of irrigation,fertilization and crop straw management on nitrous oxide and nitric oxide emissions from a wheat–maize rotation field in northern China

One-year winter wheat–summer maize rotation is the most popular double cropping system in north-central China, and this highly productive system is an important source of nitrous oxide (N₂O) and nitric oxide (NO) emissions due to the high fertilizer N and irrigation water inputs. To sustain the high crop production and mitigate the detrimental impacts of N₂O and NO emissions, improved management practices are extensively applied. The aim of this study is therefore to evaluate the effects of an improved management practice of irrigation, fertilization and crop straw on grain yield and N₂O and NO emissions for a wheat–maize rotation field in northern China. Using automated and manual chamber measuring systems, we monitored N₂O and NO fluxes for the conventional (CT, 2007–2008), improved (IT, 2007–2008), straw-amended (WS, 2008–2009), straw-not-amended (NS, 2008–2009), and no N-fertilizer treatments (WS–NN, 2008–2009), respectively, for one rotation-year. The grain yields were determined for CT and IT for three rotation-years (2005–2008) and for WS, NS and WS–NN for one rotation-year (2008–2009). The improved management of irrigation and fertilization reduced the annual N fertilization rate and irrigation amount by 17% and 30%, respectively; increased the maize yield by 7–14%; and significantly decreased the N₂O and NO emissions by 7% (p < 0.05) and 29% (p < 0.01), respectively. The incorporation of wheat straw increased the cumulative N₂O and NO emissions in the following maize season by 58% (p < 0.01) and 13%, respectively, whereas the effects of maize straw application were not remarkable. The N₂O and NO emission factors of applied N were 2.32 ± 2.32% and 0.42 ± 1.69% for wheat straw and 0.67 ± 0.23% and 0.54 ± 0.15% for chemical N-fertilizers, respectively. Compared to conventional management practices using high application rates of irrigation water and chemical N-fertilizer as well as the field burning of crop straw, the improved management strategy presented here has obvious environmentally positive effects on grain yield and mitigation of N₂O and NO emissions.     

Reliability and input-data induced uncertainty of the EPIC model to estimate climate change impact on sorghum yields in the U.S. Great Plains

Crop simulation models are frequently used to estimate the impact of climate change on crop production. However, few studies have evaluated the model performance in ways that most researchers practiced in climate impact studies. In this article, we examined the reliability of the EPIC model in simulating grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) yields in the U.S. Great Plains under different climate scenarios, namely in years with normal or extreme temperature and precipitation. We also investigated model uncertainties introduced by input data that are not site-specific but commonly used or available for climate change studies. Historical field trial data of sorghum at the Mead Experimental Center, NE, were used for model evaluations. The results showed that overall model reliability was about 56%. The mean absolute relative error (absRE) was about 29%. The degree of accuracy and reliability varied with climate-classes and nitrogen (N)-treatments. The largest bias occurred in drought years (RE = ?25%) and the most unreliable results were found in N-0 treatment (reliability = 32%). There was more than 69% probability that input-data-induced uncertainties were limited to less than 20% of absRE. Our results support the application of the EPIC model to climate change impact studies in the U.S. Great Plains. However, efforts are needed to improve the accuracy in simulating crop responses to extreme water- and nitrogen-stressed conditions.     

Yield formation of CO2-enriched inter-subspecific hybrid rice cultivar Liangyoupeijiu under fully open-air field condition in a warm sub-tropical climate

Hybrid rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivars play an important role in rice production due to its heterosis, resistance to environmental stress and high yield potential. However, no attention has been given to its yield responses to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]). To address this need, we conducted a Free Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) experiment at Yangzhou, Jiangsu, China, in 2004–2006. A two-line inter-subspecific hybrid rice variety Liangyoupeijiu, recently bred in China, was grown at ambient or elevated (c. 570 μmol mol^?1) [CO₂] under two levels of nitrogen (N) application (12.5 and 25 g N m^?2). Elevated [CO₂] slightly accelerated phenological development (1–2 days), and substantially enhanced grain yield (+30%). The magnitude of yield response to [CO₂] was independent of N fertilization, but greatly varied among years. On average, elevated [CO₂] increased panicle number per unit land area by 8%, due to an increase in maximum tiller number under FACE, while productive tiller ratio remained unaffected. Spikelet number per panicle showed an average increase of 10% due to elevated [CO₂], which was also supported by increased plant height and dry weight per stem. Meanwhile, Elevated [CO₂] caused a significant enhancement in both filled spikelet percentage (+5%) and individual grain mass (+4%). Compared with previous rice FACE studies, this hybrid cultivar appears to profit much more from elevated [CO₂] than inbred japonica cultivars (c. +13%), not only due to its stronger sink generation, but also enhanced capacity to utilize the carbon sources in a high [CO₂] environment. As sufficient intraspecific variation in yield response exists under field conditions, there is a pressing need to identify genotypes which would produce maximum grain yield under projected future [CO₂] levels.     

Lodging in rice can be alleviated by atmospheric CO2 enrichment

The projected increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentration [CO₂] is expected to increase yield of agricultural C₃ crops, but little is known about effects of [CO₂] on lodging that can reduce yield. This study examined the interaction between [CO₂] and nitrogen (N) fertilization on the lodging of rice (Oryza sativa L.) using free-air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) systems installed in paddy fields at Shizukuishi, Iwate, Japan (39°38′N, 140°57′E). Rice plants were grown under two levels of [CO₂] (ambient = 365 μmol mol⁻¹; elevated [CO₂] = 548 μmol mol⁻¹) and three N fertilization regimes: a single initial basal application of controlled-release urea (8 g N m⁻², CRN), split fertilization with a standard amount of ammonium sulfate (9 g N m⁻², MN), and ample N (15 g N m⁻², HN). Lodging score (six ranks at 18° intervals, with larger scores indicating greater bending), yield, and yield components were measured at maturity. The lodging score was significantly higher under HN than under CRN and MN, but lodging was alleviated by elevated [CO₂] under HN. This alleviation was associated with the shortened and thickened lower internodes, but was not associated with a change in the plant's mass moment around the culm base. A positively significant correlation between lodging score and ripening percentage indicated that ripening percentage decreased by 4.5% per one-unit increase in lodging score. These findings will be useful to develop functional algorithm that can be incorporated into mechanistic crop models to predict rice production more accurately in a changing climate and with different cultural practices.     

Benefits and costs of controlling three allergenic alien species under climate change and dispersal scenarios in Central Europe

Climate change is likely to exacerbate the negative effects of invasive alien species (IAS) as it will foster their further spread. This paper analyses the potential socio-economic effects of three emerging IAS (giant ragweed, Ambrosia trifida; annual wormwood, Artemisia annua; and burweed marshelder, Iva xanthiifolia), which are known to cause substantial harm to human health and to have negative effects on agricultural production. The novelty of the study consists in an integrated approach that combines several aspects of IAS research and management. We model the future spread of the study species in Central Europe by the year 2050 under several climate change, management and spread scenarios. The costs and benefits of controlling the expansion of these IAS are based on this forecast. The results show that an early and coordinated response to the spread of these IAS yields substantial net benefits under all scenarios. Under the conditions of moderate climate change (+1.5 °C), discounted net benefits range from €19 to €582 million. Assuming more severe climate change (+2.4 °C), total savings over the full period are projected to add up to €1063 million. These large socio-economic benefits provide compelling evidence that public authorities should act preventively to restrict the spread of these three IAS.     

Correlating negotiation hotspot issues,Paris climate agreement and the international climate policy regime

The concerns over climate change negotiation, decision texts and links to domestic policy interests of countries to keep warming within an acceptable limit have become the ‘hotspot issues’ of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Hotspot issues are the human – political economy factors which have evolved over time from negotiation texts or phrases, principles or behaviors with tendencies to influence climate negotiations yet cannot be identified with the scientific literature. Whilst big emitters have been accused as having hegemony over the negotiations, the effects of disunity amongst the parties over domestic policy interests have been overlooked. Hence the article examines the emergence of hotspot issues and how they manifest within the international climate policy regime. The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of 130 countries submitted before the Paris agreement, were analyzed using the following texts: Adaptation, Mitigation, Co-benefits, Finance, Land use, Food security, Poverty, Resilience, Green growth, Green economy, Sustainable development, Biodiversity, Ecosystem services and Conservation. Of these, ‘adaptation’ was cited 2780 times, 1956 for ‘mitigation’ and 32 for ‘ecosystem services’ in the nature conservation category. Ten phases of the climate policy regime and historical hotspot issues were identified for the period 1980–2030. ‘Adaptation’ and mitigation appeared more frequently in the INDCs and correlated with each other (r = 0.56), as the two correlated further with ‘land use’ (0.50 < r < 0.60), and similarly with sustainable development (0.40 < r < 0.70) where ‘r’ is the Pearson Rank Correlation. Therefore the success of the ‘ambitious targets’ for mitigation will depend on similar ambitious goals for adaptation, land use and sustainable development. Several differences existed in the correlation of the hotspot issues within the regional geographical blocs (Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, South America) and split along the hotspot issues yet Europe mostly oriented towards mitigation and land use, and Oceania on resilience building. These differences provide favorable conditions for increased cooperation and true multilateralism if they are properly diagnosed.     

Climate change adaptation planning in large cities: A systematic global assessment

Cities globally face significant risks from climate change, and are taking an increasingly active role in formulating and implementing climate change adaptation policy. However, there are few, if any, global assessments of adaptation taking place across cities. This study develops and applies a framework to track urban climate change adaptation policy using municipal adaptation reporting. From 401 local governments globally in urban areas with >1 m people, we find that only 61 cities (15%) report any adaptation initiatives, and 73 cities (18%) report on planning towards adaptation policy. We classified cities based on their adaptation reporting as extensive adaptors, moderate adaptors, early stage adaptors, and non-reporting. With few exceptions, extensive adaptors are large cities located in high-income countries in North America, Europe, and Oceania, and are adapting to a variety of expected impacts. Moderate adaptors usually address general disaster risk reduction rather than specific impacts, and are located in a mix of developed and developing countries. Early stage adaptors exhibit evidence of planning for adaptation, but do not report any initiatives. Our findings suggest that urban adaptation is in the early stages, but there are still substantive examples of governments taking leadership regardless of wealth levels and institutional barriers.     

Decisions to reduce greenhouse gases from agriculture and product transport: LCA case study of organic and conventional wheat

A streamlined hybrid life cycle assessment is conducted to compare the global warming potential (GWP) and primary energy use of conventional and organic wheat production and delivery in the US. Impact differences from agricultural inputs, grain farming, and transport processes are estimated. The GWP of a 1 kg loaf of organic wheat bread is about 30 g CO₂-eq less than the conventional loaf. When organic wheat is shipped 420 km farther to market, organic and conventional wheat systems have similar impacts. These results can change dramatically depending on soil carbon accumulation and nitrous oxide emissions from the two systems. Key parameters and their variability are discussed to provide producers, wholesale and retail consumers, and policymakers metrics to align their decisions with low-carbon objectives.     

Climate change impacts on groundwater resources in Mekong Delta under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios

Groundwater is the essential resource for various uses and have a great economic importance especially in the areas like Mekong Delta, which is the home for some 18 million people and produces a half of Vietnam’s rice and contributes substantial part of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Sustainable use of the groundwater resource is threatened by its uncontrolled abstraction and climate change. This study assesses groundwater resources in Mekong Delta aquifer system in the context of climate change. A set of models are used for the purpose. Groundwater recharge and its spatial variation are estimated using WETSPASS model, groundwater level and storage are estimated using MODFLOW and future climatic conditions in the area are developed by downscaling the data of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) retrieved from CMIP5 data portal. Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are considered for projecting future conditions of groundwater resources. Results reveal that the future average annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.5 °C and 4.9 °C by the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Future rainfall is projected to increase in wet season and decrease in dry season. Groundwater recharge is projected to decline in short-, medium-, and long-terms. As a result, groundwater levels and storage are also projected to decline in future. These findings may help decision-makers and stakeholders for devising sustainable groundwater management strategies in Mekong Delta.     

Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation

To examine whether U.S. public opinion may become as sharply polarized on adaptation responses as it has been on mitigation policies, we surveyed a sample of urban coastal residents in Maryland (n = 378). We then tested the impact of a community deliberative event (n = 40) with small-group sea level rise discussions as a depolarization strategy. Cultural worldviews which contribute to politically polarized beliefs about climate were predictive of perceptions of sea level rise risk. Living close to flooding hazards also significantly predicted respondents’ perceptions of household or neighborhood risks, but not of risks to the entire county. The event significantly increased topic knowledge among all participants and, among those with a worldview predisposing them to lower risk perceptions, significantly increased problem identification and concern about impacts. These results suggest small-group deliberation focused on local problem-solving may be an effective tool for reducing the polarizing effects of cultural worldviews on decision-making.     

Streamwater phosphorus and nitrogen across a gradient in rural–agricultural land use intensity

This paper provides an overview of the impacts of rural land use on lowland streamwater phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) concentrations and P loads and sources in lowland streams. Based on weekly water quality monitoring, the impacts of agriculture on streamwater P and N hydrochemistry were examined along a gradient of rural–agricultural land use, by monitoring three sets of ‘paired’ (near-adjacent) rural headwater streams, draining catchments which are representative of the major geology, soil types and rural/agricultural land use types of large areas of lowland Britain. The magnitude and timing of P and N inputs were assessed and the load apportionment model (LAM) was applied to quantify ‘continuous’ (point) source and ‘flow-dependent’ (diffuse) source contributions of P to these headwater streams. The results show that intensive arable farming had only a comparatively small impact on streamwater total phosphorus (TP loads), with highly consistent stream diffuse-source TP yields of ca. 0.5 kg-P ha^?1 year^?1 for the predominantly arable catchments with both clay and loam soils, compared with 0.4 kg-P ha^?1 year^?1 for low agricultural intensity grassland/woodland on similar soil types. In contrast, intensive livestock farming on heavy clay soils resulted in dramatically higher stream diffuse-source TP yields of 2 kg-P ha^?1 year^?1. The streamwater hydrochemistry of the livestock-dominated catchment was characterised by high concentrations of organic P, C and N fractions, associated with manure and slurry sources. Across the study sites, the impacts of human settlement were clearly identifiable with effluent inputs from septic tanks and sewage treatment works resulting in large-scale increases in soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads and concentrations. At sites heavily impacted by rural settlements, SRP concentrations under baseflow conditions reached several hundred μg-P L^?1. Load apportionment modelling demonstrated significant ‘point-source’ P inputs to the streams even where there were no sewage treatment works within the upstream catchment. This indicates that, even in sparsely populated rural headwater catchments, small settlements and even isolated groups of houses are sufficient to cause significant nutrient pollution and that septic tank systems serving these rural communities are actually operating as multiple point sources, rather than a diffuse input.     

A new tool to map the major worldviews in the Netherlands and USA,and explore how they relate to climate change

For addressing climate change, public support for changes in policy is needed, as well changes in individual lifestyles. Both of these appear to be intimately related with people’s worldviews. Understanding these worldviews is therefore essential. In order to research and ‘map’ them, we translated the theoretical ‘Integrative Worldview Framework’ (IWF) into an empirical, quantitative approach. We constructed a worldview-scale aiming to distinguish between four major worldviews – labeled traditional, modern, postmodern, and integrative – and explored their interface with opinions and behaviors with respect to climate change. The survey was conducted with representative samples of citizens in the Netherlands and the USA (n = 527 and n = 556). The hypothesized worldviews were found in the data with a reasonable degree of reliability, especially in the Dutch sample. We also found consistent relationships between these worldview-clusters and a range of opinions, political priorities, and behaviors. In both countries postmoderns and integratives displayed significantly more concern about climate change as well as more sustainable behaviors, compared with moderns and traditionals. The implications of these findings for environmental policy and social science are noteworthy.     

Ammonia and nitrous oxide emissions following land application of high and low nitrogen pig manures to winter wheat at three growth stages

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) and ammonia (NH₃) emissions from surface applied high (HN) and low (LN) nitrogen pig manures were measured under field conditions. Manures were band-spread to a winter wheat crop at three growth stages—mid-tillering, stem elongation and flag leaf emergence. The N₂O flux rates were measured using the static chamber technique while NH₃ volatilisation was assessed using a micrometeorological mass balance technique with passive flux samplers. The N₂O emissions were episodic in nature with flux rates observed ranging from 2.8 to 31.5 g N₂O–N ha^?1 day^?1 (P < 0.001). Higher N₂O emissions generally occurred after rainfall events. Highest N₂O losses were observed from the HN treatment with LN manure use decreasing emissions by 18% (P < 0.03). The NH₃ volatilisation rates were highest within 1 h of manure application with 95% of emissions occurring within 24 h (P < 0.001). Cumulative N loss was highest at mid-tillering as low crop canopy cover and increased wind-speeds enhanced NH₃ loss (P < 0.001). Highest emissions were measured from the HN manure (P < 0.03). Total ammoniacal N loss ranged from 6 to 11%. Crop N uptake and grain yield were unaffected by application timing or manure type. Therefore, the use of LN manures decreased gaseous emissions of N₂O and NH₃ without any adverse effects on crop performance.     

LCA of spent fluorescent lamps in Thailand at various rates of recycling

This paper presents environmental impact of a fluorescent lamp (a long straight tube 36 watts, 200 g and 13,600 h for mean time before failure) when considering different disposal methods (recycle and non-recycle) of its spent fluorescent lamp (SFL). The study was applied for the case in Thailand using life cycle assessment (LCA) as a tool. All materials, energy use, and pollutant emissions to the environment from each related process were identified and analyzed. Impact assessment was conducted for 10 environmental impact potentials: carcinogens, respiratory organics, respiratory inorganics, climate change, radiation, ozone layer, ecotoxicity, acidification/eutrophication, land use and minerals. The analysis followed Eco-Indicator 99 method, individualist version 2.1. The main focus of the study was to compare the impact of SFL recycling with non-recycling before landfilling. The impact intermittent activities, production of raw material and energy used in all the concerned processes were taken into account. However, transportation activities were excluded. The results showed that for all recycling rates, cement production is the main contributor to the environmental impacts, while sodium sulfide production is second and electrical production, the third. Mercury vapor emission showed a small contribution in carcinogens and ecotoxicity. The impacts are reduced when recycling rate is increased. The reduction of cement consumption in disposal processes or the process improvement of cement production may also help to reduce environmental impacts.     

Climate-driven changes in air quality over Europe by the end of the 21st century,with special reference to Portugal

Climate change alone may deeply impact air quality levels in the atmosphere because the changes in the meteorological conditions will induce changes on the transport, dispersion and transformation of air pollutants. The aim of this work was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the air quality over Europe and Portugal, using a reference year (year 1990) and a IPCC SRES A2 year (year 2100). The Hadley Centre global atmospheric circulation model (HadAM3P) was used to provide results for these two climatic scenarios, which were then used as synoptic forcing for the MM5-CHIMERE air quality modelling system. In order to assess the contribution of future climate change on O₃ and PM concentrations, no changes in regional emissions were assumed and only climate change forcing was considered. The modelling results suggest that the O₃ monthly mean levels in the atmosphere may increase almost 50 μg m^?3 across Europe in July under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. In Portugal, this increase may reach 20 μg m^?3. The changes of PM10 monthly average values over Europe will depend on the region. The increase in PM10 concentrations during specific months could be explained by the average reduction of the boundary layer height and wind speed.     

Influence of land use on organic carbon pool and chemical properties of Vertic Cambisols in central and southern Italy

Land use strongly influences soil properties and unsuitable practices lead to degradation of soil and environmental quality. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of different land uses on some chemical properties of soils developed from Pliocene clays, within hilly environments of central and southern Italy. The areas investigated are located in Vicarello di Volterra (Pisa, Tuscany), S. Quirico d’Orcia (Siena, Tuscany) and Soveria Simeri (Catanzaro, Calabria). Within each area different land uses were compared, including a natural ecosystem (Mediterranean bush), a perennial grass or pasture and an intensive crop (wheat, as monoculture or in rotation). The soils were sampled at 0.0–0.1, 0.1–0.2 and 0.2–0.4 m depth and analysed for particle size, pH, bulk density, cation exchange capacity and exchangeable cations, total organic carbon (TOC) and humified carbon (HC) concentrations, organic carbon stock and total N. The stratification ratio of soil organic carbon was calculated to characterize soil organic carbon distribution with depth. At all sites, soil under Mediterranean bush contained the largest amounts of TOC (as both concentration and stock), HC, total N and exchangeable K, together with the highest cation exchange capacity and the lowest pH values. The decrease in soil OC stock with land use change from natural to agricultural ecosystem was 65–85% to 0.1 m depth, 55–82% to 0.2 m depth and 44–76% to 0.4 m depth, with the lowest decrements for perennial grass from S. Quirico and the highest decrement for continuous wheat from Soveria Simeri. Continuous wheat cropping, based on conventional tillage, proved to be the least sustainable land use. At Soveria Simeri, the organic carbon content under pasture was not significantly larger than under wheat cultivation, probably because of grazing mismanagement; however, organic carbon under pasture was more humified. At S. Quirico, the perennial grass resulted in a significant increase in soil organic carbon at the soil surface relative to the wheat cultivation, while at Vicarello no differences were observed between alfalfa/wheat rotation and perennial grass. Our results lead to the questioning of sustainability of intensive cereal farming and uncontrolled grazing in the considered environments, emphasizing the need for greater attention to conservative land managements.     

Vulnerability of Indian mustard (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Brassica juncea</Emphasis> (L.) Czernj. Cosson) to climate variability and future adaptation strategies

A simulation study has been carried out using the InfoCrop mustard model to assess the impact of climate change and adaptation gains and to delineate the vulnerable regions for mustard (Brassica juncea (L.) Czernj. Cosson) production in India. On an all India basis, climate change is projected to reduce mustard grain yield by ～2 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ～7.9 % in 2050 (2040–2069) and ～15 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios of MIROC3.2.HI (a global climate model) and Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS, a regional climate model) models, if no adaptation is followed. However, spatiotemporal variations exist for the magnitude of impacts. Yield is projected to reduce in regions with current mean seasonal temperature regimes above 25/10 °C during crop growth. Adapting to climate change through a combination of improved input efficiency, additional fertilizers and adjusting the sowing time of current varieties can increase yield by ～17 %. With improved varieties, yield can be enhanced by ～25 % in 2020 climate scenario. But, projected benefits may reduce thereafter. Development of short-duration varieties and improved crop husbandry becomes essential for sustaining mustard yield in future climates. As climatically suitable period for mustard cultivation may reduce in future, short-duration (<130 days) cultivars with 63 % pod filling period will become more adaptable. There is a need to look beyond the suggested adaptation strategy to minimize the yield reduction in net vulnerable regions.