Discussion of Population Modernization Theory and Actuality Analysis of Population Modernization in China

Abstract

This paper discusses the basic concept and connotation of population modernization.

The author briefly analyzes the actuality of population modernization in China, gives some advice and puts forward some measures.     

基于正态云模型和熵权的人口发展现代化程度综合评价

为有效地监测和评估人口发展现代化程度,实现人口、经济、环境协调发展,探索和构建了人口发展程度综合评价模型。针对人口发展过程中存在的模糊性和随机性问题,建立了基于正态云模型和熵权的综合评判模型。借鉴已有理论的基础上,综合考虑人口总量、人口结构等5个方面因素构建人口综合发展现代化程度指标体系,采用熵权法确定各个指标权重,借助于正态云模型定量描述单指标条件下待评价我国人口发展的等级。云模型是表示某个定性概念与定量表示之间不确定性转换的模型,它将概念的模糊性和随机性结合在一起,对解决不确定性问题具有很强的鲁棒性。采用云模型理论实现评语与评估指标值之间的不确定映射,保留了评估过程中的随机性和模糊性。最后,以2000-2009年我国10年人口发展相关指标的时间序列数据,以及2009年全国和四个直辖市的人口综合发展截面数据为例,对人口发展现代化程度进行实证检验,结果表明,该模型比传统的模糊综合法能得到更加合理的评估结果。     

中国水利现代化进程的评价和展望

着眼于中国现代化建设的历史全局,从安全性需求保障度、经济性需求保障度、舒适性需求保障度以及水生态环境和谐度四个维度,构建了中国水利现代化评价指标体系。通过定量评价,本文测算了中国未来5年、10年、20年和40年的水利现代化实现程度。从评价结果来看,2000年,中国水利现代化综合实现程度为30%;2010年,水利现代化综合实现程度提高到46%,表明过去十年是水利现代化的快速提升期。预计到2015年,中国水利现代化实现程度将提高到56%;到2020年,水利现代化综合实现程度将提高到70%,总体上达到中等现代化的水平;到2030年,水利现代化综合实现程度达到91%,基本实现水利现代化,水利发展水平与经济高收入水平基本相适应。展望2030年以后,中国水利发展将进入水生态环境全面修复和保护的时期;至2050年,中国将实现人水和谐、山川秀美,全面建成绿色现代化。由于国家对水利工作的高度重视,可以预见,中国未来十几年的水利现代化进程会大大加快,有可能在2030年或更早时间基本实现水利现代化。     

论生态农业与中国农业现代化

本文首先分析了我国农业生态环境存在的一系列严重问题，潜伏着巨大的危机。继而指出造成这种现象的原因是多方面的，既有不可忽视的自然因素，更有人为作用的因素。既有历史原因，也有现实障碍。京山县生态环境建设案例的剖析再一次证明生态农业是我国农业现代化的必然选择。最后本文在分析我国生态农业建设障碍因素的基础上，提出了发展生态农业的对策措施。     

Floating Population Increase and Its Influence on the Urban Population Situation:A Case Study in Beijing

1 BACKGROUND OF FLOATING POPULATIONIN CHINAChina's urbanization process was influenced mainly bythe government interventions before the adoption of thesocial and economic reform started in 1978. Since thefoundation of the People's Republic of China, thegovernment had strictly controlled the internal migration,especially from rural to urban areas. The ability of thegovernment to make a strong impact on the migrationand urbanization was realized by the household registrationsyste…     

Floating Population Increase and Its Influence on the Urban Population Situation: A Case Study in Beijing

Abstract

Floating population is a special population group in China resulting from the implementation of household registration system. This paper uses a set of floating population survey data, population censuses data and statistical data to analyze the increase and influence of floating population on the urban population situations in Beijing. It is found that Beijing has experienced a rapid increase of floating population since the 1990s and that the increase of this group has become the key factor of the current population expansion in the city. Its distribution in the urban regions intensified and extended the suburbanization process of the capital. In addition, the population structures of sex, age, education and employment in Beijing have changed to some extent due to the influx of floating population.     

粮食安全：我国农业现代化的任务与标志

解决10多亿人吃饭问题是我国农业第一主题,是农业现代化的首要任务,而粮食安全水平是我国农业现代化的重要标志,因此,在我国农业现代化进程中,必须强化商品粮基地建设;不断提高种粮科学技术的经济效益、粮食转化效益,保护和改善粮食生产者和主产区经济利益和经济状况,建立健全国家粮食安全保障体系,提高我国粮食安全水平。     

上海市人口分布变动的空间特征分析

空间自相关分析是一种空间统计的方法。可以揭示区域变量的空间结构形态。通过对2000-2003年期间上海市乡镇人口密度变化率的空间相关性分析，发现上海市近几年人口分布空间变动格局表现为以中心城区为中心的环状分布模式，中心城区和远郊区人口密度变化小。人口增长缓慢，而近郊区人口密度变化大，人口增长迅速。全市人口密度变化率存在着显著的空间集聚现象。四种类型的空间关联在空间分布上具有明显的规律性。研究结果表明，目前上海市人口郊区化趋势明显。高人口密度区域在不断向外扩张，人口分布与经济、交通等社会发展因素的关系日益密切。这些研究结果说明利用空间自相关统计方法能够扩展和加强对人口分布空间模式的研究．从而为经济总体布局和城市化建设提供辅助参考作用。     

Population and development: impacts on environmental performance

Population growth and development patterns have a significant impact on the environmental performance. The issue of concern is whether population growth or the consumption/production patterns are responsible for environmental deterioration. This paper is an attempt to capture the impact of technological development, affluence, and population on environmental performance index, while previous studies had captured the impact of these three factors on environment only through CO₂ emissions. The analysis reveals that technological development and population size have a negative impact on environmental performance, whereas measures to improve affluence have a positive impact. Technological development has increased the production of energy efficient products but at the same time consumption of these products has increased manifold leading to environmental deterioration. Demographic attributes need specific attention to improve environmental performance. This paper concludes on some policy reflections on slowing the population growth as well as persuades individuals and economies to relook to their consumption and production patterns and channelize their efforts to protect the environment.     

Challenge of China's Population and Environment and Its Countermeasures

Abstract

The overgrowth of population and deterioration of environment are two serious problems of China. They pose a strong challenge to China's economic and social development. This article discusses the challenge and proposes some countermeasures for China to cope with these problems.     

Ontogeny and Population: Developmental Stability and Population Variation

By definition, the ontogenetic and population organization levels are fundamentally different. Studies at these levels are traditionally independent. However, it becomes increasingly evident that special analysis of individuals in terms of ontogeny is necessary for correct estimation of populations and their spatiotemporal dynamics, as well as for understanding the mechanisms of population processes.     

对我国农业现代化深层次问题的思考

中国农业现代化不可能照搬西方发达国家，必须从实际出发，吸收欧美等国先进科学技术和经验及教训，合理利用自然资源，保护生态环境，同时还要利用具有中国特色的传统技术和国外的高新技术，建设符合国情的非传统农业现代化，并实施可持续发展战略。在此背景下，文章分析了农业现代化过程中面临的深层次问题，提出了发展对策。     

长江中上游圆口铜鱼群体遗传结构研究

为科学地开展圆口铜鱼人工繁殖和增殖放流等保护工作,研究采用9个四碱基重复的圆口铜鱼（Coreius guichenoti）微卫星标记,对采自宜昌、三峡库区、宜宾、永善、巧家、攀枝花6个江段的199尾圆口铜鱼样本的遗传多样性和遗传结构进行了分析。依照采样点不同将圆口铜鱼分成6个群体,研究结果显示,9个微卫星标记均具有较高的多态性,各群体遗传多样性水平较高。AMOVA显示6个群体并未达到显著遗传分化水平。Structure分析将6个群体分为2组,三峡库区群体中部分个体与宜宾群体中部分个体为一组,其他为另一组。分子方差分析（AMOVA）结果与Structure分析结果间存在一定差异,可能原因在于AMOVA结果是将每个群体作为一个整体来显示的,而Structure分析结果是将每个群体按照个体数所占比例来显示的。因此,为避免遗传背景污染事件的发生,进行圆口铜鱼人工繁殖的遗传管理,分析比较放流群体和野生群体的遗传结构是必须的     

Population crash: prospects for famine in the twenty-first century

For centuries famine arose as a seemingly endless series of acute, regional and unanticipated events; it has transformed into a phenomenon, global in scale and continuous in nature. Half the world’s human population perpetually suffers some form of malnourishment, from either a scarcity of calories, protein or micronutrients or from a combination of these. Sheer population size has rendered the scale of suffering unprecedented. Perpetual famine has emerged during an era of abundant and relatively inexpensive soil, water and energy resources, improving crop yields, and a benign climate. However, the twentieth century trends of resource degradation, diminishing growth in crop yields and a warming atmosphere will likely continue, latently and perhaps synergistically impacting agricultural production, and therefore, threatening food security in the twenty-first century. Assuming some proportional relationship between food security and these resources, famine is here projected to greatly increase in the coming decades, severely impacting billions of people.     

义乌市流动人口对区域土地利用格局的影响研究

随着城市化和工业化进程不断加快,我国的人口流动越来越频繁。流动人口特别是流入人口持续、大规模增长对城市资源的影响方式和影响程度,是中国未来社会发展和城市化过程中急需深入研究的重要问题之一。本文以城市综合竞争力居浙江省县级市首位的义乌市为例,利用遥感技术提取了该市2007年的土地利用信息,在GIS空间统计分析功能支持下,综合分析了义乌市社会经济发展、流入人口变化特征,重点讨论了净流入人口持续增长对区域土地资源利用格局的影响。结果表明:随着社会经济的快速发展,2001-2007年,义乌市总人口增加了近68万人,其中流入人口增加了63万人;建设用地从51.33km2增加到140.36km2;耕地面积减少了126.55km2.     

Effect of Habitat Fragmentation and Isolation on the Population of Alpine Musk Deer

The alpine musk deer (Moschus chrysogaster) is a key species of some terrestrial ecosystems, it has an important economic and conservative significance as a kind of medical animal in China. Due to the interaction between natural forces and human disturbance, the habitats of alpine musk deer are fragmented and isolated in different mountains and the populations are confronted with many problems of survival. In this paper, we discuss the impact of habitat fragmentation and isolation on alpine musk deer populations based on the investigation on the population densities and sizes and environmental factors in different reserves, as well as on the analysis of its ecological adaptability. We found that the alpine musk deer has strong ecological adaptability; the population development of alpine musk deer may benefit from the reduction of the forest area and even from the fragmentation and isolation of the habitat to a certain extent. However, deforestion should not be encouraged only for the alpine musk deer population, but should also be based on the overall consideration of biodiversity conservation.     

On Population Mobility in Market Economy

A general survey of the changing process of economic development of human society indicates three historical development stages: agricultural-oriented natural economy, industrial-oriented market economy and knowledge- oriented market economy. In the first natural economic era, the most important factor of production is the land and the land resource is the first resource in the economic era of agriculture. In the market economy era of industry, capital, especially material and monetary capital…     

On Population Mobility in Market Economy

Abstract

Regular and extensive social population mobility in natural economy is neither necessary nor possible while in a planned economic system, social population distribution is necessary but social population mobility is unlikely. Modern market economy as a highly mobile economy has a free-mobile population characteristic of market economy, which is fundamental to optimize human resource distribution. The rule for the modern market-based population movement is as follows: If the mobile population is the rational behavior choosers, under the permissive developmental environment as arranged by the social system, they tend to move from low profit-making fields to high income fields when there exists comparable difference of income in different regions and different industries, and various potential and practical profit-making chances. The degree of difference in comparable income is positively co-relative to the velocity and flux of mobile population.     

苏州市与温州市不同经济模式下流动人口的空间特征比较

我国正经历着一个巨大的人口流动潮，其主要流向是中西部向东部发达地区流动，农村地区向城镇密集的大中城市地区流动。发达地区的经济模式不尽相同。不同模式下地区流动人口的流向也存在着一定差异。分析比较不同发达地区的流动人口特征，对当地经济政策、产业定位、管理制度等方面均有着非常重要的指导作用。以发达地区流动人口的空间特征为研究目标，以最具代表性的“苏南模式”的苏州市和“温州模式”的温州市两个城市作为研究对象，比较总结两城市的流动人口空间特征与差异，可以看出：苏州市以人口流入为主，温州市流入流出人口数量持平；苏州市吸引外来人口的范围不如温州市广；苏州市城市中流动人口所占比例高过温州市。此外，还对不同经济模式下流动人口空间特征对地区经济发展产生的影响进行了总结，并且给出结论，以期能够对地区的经济发展起到一定的指导和促进作用。     

人口增长、收入水平与城市环境

伴随着我国城镇化进程的不断加快,城市环境污染问题备受关注。本文以城镇居民生活垃圾污染行为为起点,通过比较居民与政府目标函数,首先从理论上做出判断,城镇人口数量增加以及居民生活质量提高均会导致城市生活垃圾数量增长,从而对城市环境产生影响。随后,进一步采取Panel data的分析方法,以我国2004-2008年省级面板数据为样本,从城市生活垃圾污染的角度对我国城镇人口增长、居民收入水平与城市环境间的关系进行计量检验。结果显示:我国城市生活垃圾产生数量分别与城镇人口增长、居民收入水平间存在着长期正向协整关系,即在我国城镇化水平和居民生活质量不断提升的背景下,城市生活垃圾数量的增长以及对城市环境的污染存在着内在必然性;另外,我国城市生活垃圾数量的自发增长对平均增长的偏离逐年下降,可见,存在政策、制度、行为等外生因素抑制我国城市生活垃圾数量的增长。最后,文章从生活垃圾控制和处理的角度,就改善我国城市环境和促进城市环境可持续发展提出了简要的政策建议。