首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
ABSTRACT: Regional hydrologic procedures such as generalized least squares regression and streamflow record augmentation have been advocated for obtaining estimates of both flood-flow and low-flow statistics at ungaged sites. While such procedures are extremely useful in regional flood-flow studies, no evaluation of their merit in regional low-flow estimation has been made using actual streamflow data. This study develops generalized regional regression equations for estimating the d-day, T-year low-flow discharge, Qd, t, at ungaged sites in Massachusetts where d = 3, 7, 14, and 30 days. A two-parameter lognormal distribution is fit to sequences of annual minimum d-day low-flows and the estimated parameters of the lognormal distribution are then related to two drainage basin characteristics: drainage area and relief. The resulting models are general, simple to use, and about as precise as most previous models that only provide estimates of a single statistic such as Q7,10. Comparisons are provided of the impact of using ordinary least squares regression, generalized least squares regression, and streamflow record augmentation procedures to fit regional low-flow frequency models in Massachusetts.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT: An analysis of hydrograph recessions and rainfall data was performed to estimate the recession constants for two watersheds in the Luquillo mountains of Puerto Rico. To account for seasonal rainfall patterns, the data were grouped into dry and wet seasons. Sets of three Master Recession Curves (MRC) per season for each watershed were developed: one using the Matching Strip Method (MS) and two using variations of the Correlation Method (CM). These variations were the envelope line (CME) and the least squares regression (CMR). Other regression based analytical expressions that consider the streamflow recession as an autore‐gressive or an integrated moving average process were also applied. The regression based methods performed consistently better than the graphical ones and they proved to be faster, easier, and less subjective. The recession constants from these methods were then used to estimate the time it would take the streamflow to reach the critical Q99 flow duration. Based on this study, once the streamflow reaches Q90, water managers have 6 to 12 days warning before streamflow reaches critical levels.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract: The potential of remotely sensed time series of biophysical states of landscape to characterize soil moisture condition antecedent to radar estimates of precipitation is assessed in a statistical prediction model of streamflow in a 1,420 km2 watershed in south‐central Texas, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series biophysical products offer significant opportunities to characterize and quantify hydrologic state variables such as land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation state and status. Together with Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation estimates for the period 2002 through 2005, 16 raw and deseasoned time series of LST (day and night), vegetation indices, infrared reflectances, and water stress indices were linearly regressed against observed watershed streamflow on an eight‐day aggregated time period. Time offsets of 0 (synchronous with streamflow event), 8, and 16 days (leading streamflow event) were assessed for each of the 16 parameters to evaluate antecedent effects. The model results indicated a reasonable correlation (r2 = 0.67) when precipitation, daytime LST advanced 16 days, and a deseasoned moisture stress index were regressed against log‐transformed streamflow. The estimation model was applied to a validation period from January 2006 through March 2007, a period of 12 months of regional drought and base‐flow conditions followed by three months of above normal rainfall and a flood event. The model resulted in a Nash‐Sutcliffe estimation efficiency (E) of 0.45 for flow series (in log‐space) for the full 15‐month period, ?0.03 for the 2006 drought condition period, and 0.87 for the 2007 wet condition period. The overall model had a relative volume error of ?32%. The contribution of parameter uncertainties to model discrepancy was evaluated.  相似文献   

4.
Agreement on the criteria for granting the right to use water resources between governing bodies represents a significant advance in the process of sharing water use. To aid water resource management agencies in optimizing water use, the impact of using different criteria for permitting water use in the Paracatu river basin, Brazil, was evaluated in this study. The streamflow criteria corresponding to 30 % of the annual Q7,10 (used by the governing body of Minas Gerais), 70 % of the annual Q95 (used by the governing body of the union), 30 % of the monthly Q7,10, and 70 % of the monthly Q95 were evaluated. The use of criteria based on the monthly streamflow allows for better management of water use because it allows for greater utilization of this resource in times when there is high water availability and imposes a more realistic restriction during critical periods. Substitution of the annual Q7,10 for the monthly Q7,10 significantly increases the streamflow permitted in some months, for example, from December to May. Use of the criterion of 70 % of the annual Q95 involves a high risk of drought in critical months, while the criterion of 70 % of the monthly Q95 minimizes this risk.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract: Evaluating the relative amounts of water moving through the different components of the hydrological cycle is required for precise management and planning of water resources. An important aspect of this evaluation is the partitioning of streamflow into surface (quick flow) and base‐flow components. A prior study evaluated 40 different approaches for hydrograph‐partitioning on a field scale watershed in the Coastal Plain of the Southeastern United States and concluded that the Boughton’s method produced the most consistent and accurate results. However, its accuracy depends upon the proper estimation of: (1) the end of surface runoff, and (2) the fraction factor (α) that is function of many physical and hydrologic characteristics of a watershed. Proper identification of the end of surface runoff was accomplished by using a second derivative approach. Applying this approach to 12 years of separately measured surface and subsurface flow data from a field scale watershed (study area) proved to be accurate for 87% of the time. Estimation of the α value was accomplished in this study using two steps: (1) alpha was fitted to individual hydrographs: and, (2) a regression equation that determines these alpha values based on climatological factors (e.g., rainfall, evapotranspiration) was developed. Using these strategies improved the streamflow partitioning method’s performance significantly.  相似文献   

6.
Restored annual streamflow (Qr) and measured daily streamflow of the Chaohe watershed located in northern China and associated long‐term climate and land use/cover data were used to explore the effects of land use/cover change and climate variability on the streamflow during 1961‐2009. There were no significant changes in annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration, whereas Qr decreased significantly by 0.81 mm/yr (< 0.001) over the study period with a change point in 1999. We used 1961‐1998 as the baseline period (BP) and 1999‐2009 the change period (CP). The mean Qr during the CP decreased by 39.4 mm compared with that in the BP. From 1979 to 2009, the grassland area declined by 69.6%, and the forest and shrublands increased by 105.4 and 73.1%, respectively. The land use/cover change and climate variability contributed for 58.4 and 41.6% reduction in mean annual Qr, respectively. Compared with the BP, median and high flows in the CP decreased by 38.8 and up to 75.5%, respectively. The study concludes that large‐scale ecological restoration and watershed management in northern China has greatly decreased water yield and reduced high flows due to the improved land cover by afforestation leading to higher water loss through evapotranspiration. At a large watershed scale, land use/cover change could play as much of an important role as climate variability on water resources.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract: The Loess Plateau region in northwestern China has experienced severe water resource shortages due to the combined impacts of climate and land use changes and water resource exploitation during the past decades. This study was designed to examine the impacts of climatic variability on streamflow characteristics of a 12‐km2 watershed near Tianshui City, Gansu Province in northwestern China. Statistic analytical methods including Kendall’s trend test and stepwise regression were used to detect trends in relationship between observed streamflow and climatic variables. Sensitivity analysis based on an evapotranspiration model was used to detect quantitative hydrologic sensitivity to climatic variability. We found that precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET) and streamflow (Q) were not statistically significantly different (p > 0.05) over the study period between 1982 and 2003. Stepwise regression and sensitivity analysis all indicated that P was more influential than PET in affecting annual streamflow, but the similar relationship existed at the monthly scale. The sensitivity of streamflow response to variations of P and PET increased slightly with the increase in watershed dryness (PET/P) as well as the increase in runoff ratio (Q/P). This study concluded that future changes in climate, precipitation in particular, will significantly impact water resources in the Loess Plateau region an area that is already experiencing a decreasing trend in water yield.  相似文献   

8.
The Watershed Flow and Allocation model (WaterFALL®) provides segment‐specific, daily streamflow at both gaged and ungaged locations to generate the hydrologic foundation for a variety of water resources management applications. The model is designed to apply across the spatially explicit and enhanced National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus) stream and catchment network. To facilitate modeling at the NHDPlus catchment scale, we use an intermediate‐level rainfall‐runoff model rather than a complex process‐based model. The hydrologic model within WaterFALL simulates rainfall‐runoff processes for each catchment within a watershed and routes streamflow between catchments, while accounting for withdrawals, discharges, and onstream reservoirs within the network. The model is therefore distributed among each NHDPlus catchment within the larger selected watershed. Input parameters including climate, land use, soils, and water withdrawals and discharges are georeferenced to each catchment. The WaterFALL system includes a centralized database and server‐based environment for storing all model code, input parameters, and results in a single instance for all simulations allowing for rapid comparison between multiple scenarios. We demonstrate and validate WaterFALL within North Carolina at a variety of scales using observed streamflows to inform quantitative and qualitative measures, including hydrologic flow metrics relevant to the study of ecological flow management decisions.  相似文献   

9.
In the Piedmont of North Carolina, a traditionally water‐rich region, reservoirs that serve over 1 million people are under increasing pressure due to naturally occurring droughts and increasing land development. Innovative development approaches aim to maintain hydrologic conditions of the undisturbed landscape, but are based on insufficient target information. This study uses the hydrologic landscape concept to evaluate reference hydrology in small headwater catchments surrounding Falls Lake, a reservoir serving Raleigh and the greater Triangle area. Researchers collected one year of detailed data on water balance components, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, and shallow subsurface storage from two headwater catchments representative of two hydrologic landscapes defined by differences in soils and topographic characteristics. The two catchments are similar in size and lie within the same physiographic region, and during the study period they showed similar water balances of 26‐30% Q, ?4 to 5% ΔS, 59‐65% evapotranspiration, and 9‐10% G. However, the steeper, more elevated catchment exhibited perennial streamflow and nongrowing season runoff ratios (Q/P) of 33%, whereas the flat, low‐lying stream was drier during the growing season and exhibited Q/P ratios of 52% during the nongrowing season. A hydrologic landscape defined by topography and soil characteristics helps characterize local‐scale reference hydrology and may contribute to better land management decisions.  相似文献   

10.
Abstract: Snowmelt largely affects runoff in watersheds in Nordic countries. Neural networks (NN) are particularly attractive for streamflow forecasting whereas they rely at least on daily streamflow and precipitation observations. The selection of pertinent model inputs is a major concern in NNs implementation. This study investigates performance of auxiliary NN inputs that allow short‐term streamflow forecasting without resorting to a deterministic snowmelt routine. A case study is presented for the Rivière des Anglais watershed (700 km2) located in Southern Québec, Canada. Streamflow (Q), precipitations (rain R and snow S, or total P), temperature (T) and snow lying (A) observations, combined with climatic and snowmelt proxy data, including snowmelt flow (QSM) obtained from a deterministic model, were tested. NN implemented with antecedent Q and R produced the largest gains in performance. Introducing increments of A and T to the NNs further improved the performance. Long‐term averages, seasonal data, and QSM failed to improve the networks.  相似文献   

11.
Stratton, Benjamin T., Venakataramana Sridhar, Molly M. Gribb, James P. McNamara, and Balaji Narasimhan, 2009. Modeling the Spatially Varying Water Balance Processes in a Semiarid Mountainous Watershed of Idaho. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1390‐1408. Abstract: The distributed Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model was applied to a research watershed, the Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, near Boise Idaho to investigate its water balance components both temporally and spatially. Calibrating and validating SWAT is necessary to enable our understanding of the water balance components in this semiarid watershed. Daily streamflow data from four streamflow gages were used for calibration and validation of the model. Monthly estimates of streamflow during the calibration phase by SWAT produced satisfactory results with a Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency 0.79. Since it is a continuous simulation model, as opposed to an event‐based model, it demonstrated the limited ability in capturing both streamflow and soil moisture for selected rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events during the validation period between 2005 and 2007. Especially, soil moisture was generally underestimated compared with observations from two monitoring pits. However, our implementation of SWAT showed that seasonal and annual water balance partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, and drainage was not only possible but closely followed the trends of a typical semiarid watershed in the intermountain west. This study highlights the necessity for better techniques to precisely identify and drive the model with commonly observed climatic inversion‐related snowmelt or ROS weather events. Estimation of key parameters pertaining to soil (e.g., available water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity), snow (e.g., lapse rates, melting), and vegetation (e.g., leaf area index and maximum canopy index) using additional field observations in the watershed is critical for better prediction.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract: Storm‐flow transients (i.e., hydrograph rise and fall dynamics) may represent an important aspect of understanding streamflow dynamics. However, little is known about how temporal resolution of transient data and climate variability may color these potential indicators of hydrologic pattern or condition. Warm‐season stream stage and rainfall were monitored continuously (5 min) during the 2002 water year in eight tributaries of the Little Miami River (Ohio), which drain 17‐58 km2 catchments. Rise rates generated using 5‐min data were different than those generated with mean daily data [calculated with the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) software], though fall rates were similar for fine and coarse temporal data. This result suggests that data with low temporal resolution may not be adequate to fully represent the dynamics of storm rise rates. Conversely, fall rates based on daily stage data (via IHA) were similar to those based on the 5‐min data, and so daily mean data may be appropriate for characterizing fall rates. We next analyzed the possible correlations between rainfall variability and storm‐flow stage dynamics. We derived rise and recession rates from storm stage hydrographs by assuming exponential rise and decay of a runoff peak. We found that raw rise rates (Rraw) were correlated with both the maximum rainfall rate and the time to the centroid of a rain event. We subsequently removed the trend based on these rainfall characteristics, which yielded new representations of rise rates abbreviated as Rrate and Rtcent, respectively, and that had lower variability than the uncorrected (raw) data. Fall rates were found to be independent of rainfall characteristics. Due to the predominant influence of stream hydrology upon aquatic biota and nutrient fluxes, our work suggests that these stage data analysis protocols can refine or otherwise reduce variability in these indices by accounting for relevant factors such as rainfall forcing. These protocols for derivation of transient indices should be tested for their potential to improve correlations between stream hydrology and temporally aligned biotic data and dissolved nutrient fluxes in streams.  相似文献   

13.
14.
ABSTRACT: Distributed hydrologic models which link seasonal streamflow and soil moisture patterns with spatial patterns of vegetation are important tools for understanding the sensitivity of Mediterranean type ecosystems to future climate and land use change. RHESSys (Regional Hydro‐Ecologic Simulation System) is a coupled spatially distributed hydroecological model that is designed to be able to represent these feedbacks between hydrologic and vegetation carbon and nutrient cycling processes. However, RHESSys has not previously been applied to semiarid shrubland watersheds. In this study, the hydrologic submodel of RHESSys is evaluated by comparing model predictions of monthly and annual streamflow to stream gage data and by comparing RHESSys behavior to that of another hydrologic model of similar complexity, MIKESHE, for a 34 km2 watershed near Santa Barbara, California. In model intercomparison, the differences in predictions of temporal patterns in streamflow, sensitivity of model predictions to calibration parameters and landscape representation, and differences in model estimates of soil moisture patterns are explored. Results from this study show that both models adequately predict seasonal patterns of streamflow response relative to observed data, but differ significantly in terms of estimates of soil moisture patterns and sensitivity of those patterns to the scale of landscape tessellation used to derive spatially distributed elements. This sensitivity has implications for implementing RHESSys as a tool to investigate interactions between hydrology and ecosystem processes.  相似文献   

15.
ABSTRACT: The performance of two popular watershed scale simulation models — HSPF and SWAT — were evaluated for simulating the hydrology of the 5,568 km2 Iroquois River watershed in Illinois and Indiana. This large, tile drained agricultural watershed provides distinctly different conditions for model comparison in contrast to previous studies. Both models were calibrated for a nine‐year period (1987 through 1995) and verified using an independent 15‐year period (1972 through 1986) by comparing simulated and observed daily, monthly, and annual streamflow. The characteristics of simulated flows from both models are mostly similar to each other and to observed flows, particularly for the calibration results. SWAT predicts flows slightly better than HSPF for the verification period, with the primary advantage being better simulation of low flows. A noticeable difference in the models' hydrologic simulation relates to the estimation of potential evapotranspiration (PET). Comparatively low PET values provided as input to HSPF from the BASINS 3.0 database may be a factor in HSPF's overestimation of low flows. Another factor affecting baseflow simulation is the presence of tile drains in the watershed. HSPF parameters can be adjusted to indirectly account for the faster subsurface flow associated with tile drains, but there is no specific tile drainage component in HSPF as there is in SWAT. Continued comparative studies such as this, under a variety of hydrologic conditions and watershed scales, provide needed guidance to potential users in model selection and application.  相似文献   

16.
Romeis, J. Joshua, C. Rhett Jackson, L. Mark Risse, Andrew N. Sharpley, and David E. Radcliffe, 2011. Hydrologic and Phosphorus Export Behavior of Small Streams in Commercial Poultry‐Pasture Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐19. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00521.x Abstract: Few watershed‐scale studies have evaluated phosphorus export in streamflow from commercial poultry‐pasture operations. Continuous streamflow and mixed‐frequency water quality datasets were collected from nine commercial poultry‐pasture (AG) and three forested (FORS) headwater streams (2.4‐44 ha) in the upper Etowah River basin of Georgia to estimate total P (TP) loads and examine variability of hydrologic response and water quality of storm and nonstorm‐flow regimes. Data collection duration ranged from 18 to 22 months, and approximately 1,600 water quality samples were collected. Significant (p < 0.1) inverse relationships were detected between peak flow response variables and both drainage area and fraction of forest cover. Order‐of‐magnitude differences in TP and dissolved reactive P (DRP) concentration were observed between AG and FORS sites and among AG sites. TP yields of FORS sites ranged from 0.01 to 0.1 kg P/ha. Yields of AG sites ranged from 0.031 to 3.17 kg P/ha (median = 0.354 kg P/ha). With 95% confidence intervals, AG yields ranged from 0.025 to 13.1 kg P/ha. These small‐watershed‐scale yields were similar to field‐scale yields measured in other studies in other regions. TP yields were significantly related to area‐weighted Mehlich‐1 soil test P concentrations (p = 0.0073) and base‐flow water sample P concentrations (p 0.0005). Water quality sampling during base‐flow conditions may be a useful screening tool for P risk‐based management programs.  相似文献   

17.
Rapid land development is raising concern regarding the ability of urbanizing watersheds to sustain adequate base flow during periods of drought. Long term streamflow records from unregulated watersheds of the lower to middle Delaware River basin are examined to evaluate the impact of urbanization and imperviousness on base flow. Trends in annual base flow volumes, seven‐day low flows, and runoff ratios are determined for six urbanizing watersheds and four reference watersheds across three distinct physiographic regions. Hydrograph separation is used to determine annual base flow and stormflow volumes, and nonparametric trend tests are conducted on the resulting time series. Of the watersheds examined, the expected effects of declining base flow volumes and seven‐day low flows and increasing stormflows are seen in only one watershed that is approximately 20 percent impervious and has been subject to a net water export over the past 15 years. Both interbasin transfers and hydrologic mechanisms are invoked to explain these results. The results show that increases in impervious area may not result in measurable reductions in base flow at the watershed scale.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract: A discharge rating is a relationship between stage and discharge at a specific point in a river stream or lake outlet structure. Rating curves are useful for interpolating and perhaps extrapolating flow measurements and for use directly in storage routing models. However, rating data and stations are limited. A generalized nondimensional mathematical expression that describes the rating relation of depth and discharge has been developed and tested against observations from 46 stations in West‐Central Florida. Three approaches were tested in sequence to select the best fit. The proposed model is a log‐linear equation with zero intercept and a slope that fits more than 50% of the stations were analyzed. The model is normalized by the depth and discharge values at 10% exceedance from data published by the U.S. Geological Survey. For ungauged applications, Q10 and d10 were derived from a relationship shown to be reasonably well correlated to the watershed drainage area. The average relative error for this parameter set shows that for the flow range up to the Q10 discharge, better than 30% agreement with the USGS rating data can be expected for about 50% of the stations. Further analysis is required to determine why so many stations exhibit such similar behavior and to identify the criteria or parameters governing the differences.  相似文献   

19.
This study assesses a large‐scale hydrologic modeling framework (WRF‐Hydro‐RAPID) in terms of its high‐resolution simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow over Texas (drainage area: 464,135 km2). The reference observations used include eight‐day ET data from MODIS and FLUXNET, and daily river discharge data from 271 U.S. Geological Survey gauges located across a climate gradient. A recursive digital filter is applied to decompose the river discharge into surface runoff and base flow for comparison with the model counterparts. While the routing component of the model is pre‐calibrated, the land component is uncalibrated. Results show the model performance for ET and runoff is aridity‐dependent. ET is better predicted in a wet year than in a dry year. Streamflow is better predicted in wet regions with the highest efficiency ~0.7. In comparison, streamflow is most poorly predicted in dry regions with a large positive bias. Modeled ET bias is more strongly correlated with the base flow bias than surface runoff bias. These results complement previous evaluations by incorporating more spatial details. They also help identify potential processes for future model improvements. Indeed, improving the dry region streamflow simulation would require synergistic enhancements of ET, soil moisture and groundwater parameterizations in the current model configuration. Our assessments are important preliminary steps towards accurate large‐scale hydrologic forecasts.  相似文献   

20.
Spackman Jones, Amber, David K. Stevens, Jeffery S. Horsburgh, and Nancy O. Mesner, 2010. Surrogate Measures for Providing High Frequency Estimates of Total Suspended Solids and Total Phosphorus Concentrations. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐15. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00505.x Abstract: Surrogate measures like turbidity, which can be observed with high frequency in situ, have potential for generating high frequency estimates of total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. In the semiarid, snowmelt‐driven, and irrigation‐regulated Little Bear River watershed of northern Utah, high frequency in situ water quality measurements were recorded in conjunction with periodic chemistry sampling. Site‐specific relationships were developed using turbidity as a surrogate for TP and TSS at two monitoring locations. Methods are presented for employing censored data and for investigating categorical explanatory variables (e.g., hydrologic conditions). Turbidity was a significant explanatory variable for TP and TSS at both sites, which differ in hydrologic and water quality characteristics. The relationship between turbidity and TP was stronger at the upper watershed site where TP is predominantly particulate. At both sites, the relationships between turbidity and TP varied between spring snowmelt and base flow conditions while the relationships between TSS and turbidity were consistent across hydrological conditions. This approach enables the calculation of high frequency time series of TP and TSS concentrations previously unavailable using traditional monitoring approaches. These methods have broad application for situations that require accurate characterization of fluxes of these constituents over a range of hydrologic conditions.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号