Perceptions of the effectiveness of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in advancing national action on climate change

This paper aims to characterise the ways in which the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is trickling down to affect national level action on climate change. State and non-state actors were interviewed at the 8th UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP8) during October and November 2002. The interviews revealed that, among interviewees, climate change was already perceived to be, or was becoming a priority issue. In a number of countries substantial legislation is already in place to facilitate climate change preparedness (both adaptation and mitigation), although respondents suggest that in the majority of cases these changes are not being developed in response to the UNFCCC, but to other drivers. While all respondents saw change occurring at the national level, mostly through planning and research, few saw climate change response actions at the local level. Respondents agreed that climate risks must be managed through various mechanisms, from finding ways to participate in the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms to managing the impacts of foreign direct investments. The majority of respondents focussed on in-country actions such as identifying the most vulnerable groups, but few identified the need for greater global cooperation.To conclude, the Convention plays a role in shaping the discourse of climate change and in generating national level responses. These responses are played out differently according to the geographic, environmental, economic, social and cultural conditions of each country. The Convention is clearly important, but perhaps it is not adequate to inspire national action to resolve the problems of climate change. There is scope for many additional initiatives, through collaboration, trade or aid, and through bilateral agreements.     

碳交易市场发展现状与未来走势分析

自《京都议定书》生效以来,国际碳市场取得了长足的发展,并在推动各国低碳转型方面发挥了积极作用。由于受国际气候制度演变带来的政策不确定性影响,以及欧洲主权债务危机的冲击,当前国际碳市场的发展陷入停滞。未来国际碳市场将何去何从？本文立足主要国家国内碳市场发展、国际气候谈判进程以及德班气候变化会议成果,对国际碳市场的未来发展走势进行了系统分析,提出2012年后的国际碳市场将由联合国气候公约缔约方会议相关决定和议定书第二承诺期两个框架同时驱动,同时还将在很大程度上受到主要国家国内政策取向的影响。本文同时还介绍了中国国内碳交易市场的建设进展及其面·临的主要挑战,最后针对环境保护部门在国内碳市场建设中可发挥的作用提出了相应的建议。     

The Green Climate Fund as an effective compensatory mechanism in global climate negotiations

The Paris Agreement reached during the COP21 in December 2015 represents a timid step towards burden sharing in emission mitigation involving all countries. However, given the heterogeneity of countries and their relative differences in vulnerability to climate change damage and in mitigation costs, compensating schemes are required to reach an effective agreement. This paper investigates the role of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) as a potential compensating measure for both adaptation and mitigation actions under a global climate regime. A dynamic climate-economy computable general equilibrium model (GDynEP) is developed by including both a monetary valuation of climate change damage costs and two alternative methods to determine the allocation of GCF resources among receiving countries and between adaptation and mitigation contributions. Results show that, despite the high costs associated with the implementation of mitigation actions, most developing countries would face even higher costs in case of inaction. Furthermore, the preference of a country for an allocation method is strongly influenced by its characteristics and needs. Consequently, a main policy conclusion is to design country-specific sharing rules for GCF in order to maximize country participation in a global agreement.     

The fiscal implications of climate change and policy responses

This paper is concerned with the implications of climate change, and government policies to address it, for countries’ fiscal systems at the national level. Given the uncertainties associated with climate change and countries’ responses to it, the article can do no more than review and suggest some of the major issues of likely importance for fiscal sustainability and how they might be addressed. First the paper defines fiscal sustainability and addresses some general issues related to countries’ attempts to adapt to or mitigate climate change. It then works through a number of more specific issues, discussing policies such as the implementation of environmental taxes or other instruments for the mitigation of climate change. The assessment of the impacts of such policies on fiscal sustainability requires the application of sophisticated economic models, and the paper briefly explores the relative advantages of different modeling approaches in relation to the assessment of fiscal sustainability under policies to mitigate climate change. The major research need identified by the paper is for the development of macroeconomic models that will enable countries identify the wider effects of environmental taxes and help them undertake multi-year budgeting processes.     

美国温室气体减排努力现状及近期动向

美国作为全球温室气体排放大国之一,在国际气候谈判中的立场至关重要。本文从州政府和地方政府角度总结了美国已采取的减排努力措施,分析了德班会议前后其应对气候变化动向,探讨了对我国采取温室气体减排行动和措施的借鉴意义和启示。美国由于受到持续低迷的经济环境,缓慢的国际气候谈判进程,以及2012年总统大选的影响,国内温室气体减排行动和措施实质进展缓慢,我国应总结和借鉴美国已采取减排行动措施的经验教训,从加快建立健全国内气候立法体系,推动国内碳市场建立出发,积极应对国内外气候变化制度中存在的不确定性,不断提高我国在国际气候谈判中的地位。     

Climate Change Daaptational Deficiencies in Developing Countries: the Case of Sub-Saharan Africa

Adaptation is nowrecognized as an inevitable component ofthe overall climate change responsestrategy. For a developing region likesub-Saharan Africa with low greenhouse gasemissions and high vulnerability to theimpacts of climate change, the importanceof adaptation in climate change policy iseven more fundamental. This paper examined alook at the adaptational preparedness ofthe sub-Saharan African region to climatechange. Clearly evident in theenvironmental strategy and developmentfocus of these countries is lack ofrecognition of the need to adapt, poorincentive to adapt and low capacity toadapt to climate change. This furtherexacerbates their vulnerability and hasimplications for the global climate changeresponse strategy. Unfortunately, fewattempts have been made to understand thestructural reasons underlying the pervasivepattern of adaptational unpreparedness inthe region, neither has there been acomprehensive and systematic analysis ofhow to remedy this problem. This paper is acontribution in this regard. It alsohighlights the factors to whichinternational community need to payattention, if it truly wishes to make itsefforts at adaptation more global inscope.     

适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度。因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对＂适应气候变化＂却有所忽视。其实,对发展中国家《适应气候变化》才是当务之急。本文在＂发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖＂减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径。     

Global knowledge networking for site specific strategies: The International Conference on Biodiversity and Society

The UNESCO/Columbia University International Conference on Biodiversity and Society was held at Columbia University in the city of New York in May 2001. The conference was jointly organized by the UNESCO Ecological Sciences Division and the Columbia Earth Institute of Columbia University, with the goal of identifying a research agenda and methodology providing solid science as a foundation for field engagement that would influence social and political strategies for the long-term stewardship and conservation of culturally and biologically significant sites. The conference brought together leading environmental and social scientists, managers of UNESCO Biosphere Reserves, high-level policy-makers from over 20 developed and developing countries, journalists, and leading institutions, including private corporations, environmental NGOs, United Nations agencies, and international lending institutions. The focus was on local level phenomena and responses, as well as on the potential and limitations of the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve concept for coordinating biodiversity conservation with human security. The conference was built around a set of nine case studies prepared by teams of policy makers and researchers.     

Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints

Climate change is expected to adversely affect agricultural production in Africa. Because agricultural production remains the main source of income for most rural communities in the region, adaptation of the agricultural sector is imperative to protect the livelihoods of the poor and to ensure food security. A better understanding of farmers’ perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and the decision-making process is important to inform policies aimed at promoting successful adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector. Using data from a survey of 1800 farm households in South Africa and Ethiopia, this study presents the adaptation strategies used by farmers in both countries and analyzes the factors influencing the decision to adapt. We find that the most common adaptation strategies include: use of different crops or crop varieties, planting trees, soil conservation, changing planting dates, and irrigation. However, despite having perceived changes in temperature and rainfall, a large percentage of farmers did not make any adjustments to their farming practices. The main barriers to adaptation cited by farmers were lack of access to credit in South Africa and lack of access to land, information, and credit in Ethiopia. A probit model is used to examine the factors influencing farmers’ decision to adapt to perceived climate changes. Factors influencing farmers’ decision to adapt include wealth, and access to extension, credit, and climate information in Ethiopia; and wealth, government farm support, and access to fertile land and credit in South Africa. Using a pooled dataset, an analysis of the factors affecting the decision to adapt to perceived climate change across both countries reveals that farmers were more likely to adapt if they had access to extension, credit, and land. Food aid, extension services, and information on climate change were found to facilitate adaptation among the poorest farmers. We conclude that policy-makers must create an enabling environment to support adaptation by increasing access to information, credit and markets, and make a particular effort to reach small-scale subsistence farmers, with limited resources to confront climate change.     

Enhancing adaptive capacity to climate change: The case of smallholder farmers in the Brazilian semi-arid region

Climate change is one of the main challenges faced by mankind in this century. Although developing countries have little historical responsibility for climate change, they are likely to be most affected by it since they lack resources to cope with or to adapt to its effects. Studies show that the semi-arid northeast region of Brazil – where the country's poorest populations are concentrated – is one of the most vulnerable to climate change and thus likely to suffer its impacts more severely. The present paper addresses these problems by presenting a concrete initiative for strengthening adaptive capacity in the rural community of Pintadas as a first step in the development of a comprehensive methodology to help smallholder farmers in the region adapt to climate change. Based on the project results this paper highlights the integration of development, adaptive capacity and adaptation strategies. Furthermore, the necessity of vulnerability studies and concrete local experiences is highlighted in order to develop adaptation strategies that can alleviate poverty and minimize climate change impacts for the poor.     

Climate change effects on pesticide usage reduction efforts: a case study in China

China has announced plans to stabilize its pesticide use by 2020. Yet, future climate change will possibly increase the difficulty of meeting this goal. This study uses econometric estimation to explore how climate impacts Chinese pesticide usage and subsequently to project the future implications of climate change on pesticide use. The results indicate that both atmospheric temperature and precipitation increase pesticide usage. Under current climate change projections, pesticide usage will rise by +1.1 to 2.5% by 2040, +2.4 to 9.1% by 2070, and +2.6 to 18.3% by 2100. Linearly extrapolating the results to 2020 yields an approximately 0.5 to 1.2% increase. Thus, to achieve stabilization, more severe actions are needed to address this increase. Possible actions to achieve the reductions needed include using better monitoring and early warning networks so as to permit early responses to climate change-stimulated increases, enhancing information dissemination, altering crop mix, and promoting nonchemical control means. Additionally, given that increased pesticide usage generally increases health and environmental damage, there may be a need to more widely disseminate safe application procedure information while also strengthening compliance with food safety regulations. Furthermore, pest control strategies will need to be capable of evolving as climate change proceeds. Globally, efforts could be made to (1) scale up agrometeorological services, especially in developing countries; (2) use international frameworks to better align the environmental and health standards in developing countries with those in developed countries; and (3) adapt integrated pest management practices to climate change, especially for fruits and vegetables.     

Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model

Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers’ food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons. We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10–38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10–41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.     

Structure of the Indian southwesterly pre-monsoon and monsoon boundary layers: Observations and numerical simulation

Characteristics of pre-monsoon and monsoon boundary layer structure and turbulence were studied in New Delhi and Bangalore, India during the summer of 1987. Micrometeorological towers were installed and instrumented at these locations to provide mean and turbulent surface layer measurements, while information on the vertical structure of the atmosphere was obtained using miniradiosondes. Thermal structures of the pre-monsoon and monsoon boundary layers were quite distinct. The daytime, pre-monsoon boundary layer observed over New Delhi was much deeper than that of the monsoon boundary layer observed over Bangalore and at times was characterized by multiple inversions. Surface, turbulent sensible heat fluxes at both sites were approximately the same (235 and 200 Wm⁻² for New Delhi and Bangalore, respectively). Diurnal variations in the monsoon boundary layer at Bangalore were more regular compared to those under pre-monsoon conditions at New Delhi. One-dimensional numerical simulations of the pre-monsoon boundary layer using a turbulent energy closure scheme show good agreement with observations.     

一种部分碳税机制的经济分析

基于目前全球气候变化谈判的困境提出一种部分碳税机制,这种机制与1997年12月缔约国大会第三次会议所形成的京都议定书第12条确立的清洁发展机制（CDM）的雏形清洁发展基金（CDF）有相似的特征,即要求附件Ｉ缔约方为实现公约的目的和体现公约有区别的责任原则,通过实行统一的税收机制并将税收收入转移到发展中国家作为他们在历史过程中过多排放温室气体的自然债务的补偿     

Mitigation needs adaptation: Tropical forestry and climate change

The relationship between tropical forests and global climate change has so far focused on mitigation, while much less emphasis has been placed on how management activities may help forest ecosystems adapt to this change. This paper discusses how tropical forestry practices can contribute to maintaining or enhancing the adaptive capacity of natural and planted forests to global climate change and considers challenges and opportunities for the integration of tropical forest management in broader climate change adaptation. In addition to the use of reduced impact logging to maintain ecosystem integrity, other approaches may be needed, such as fire prevention and management, as well as specific silvicultural options aimed at facilitating genetic adaptation. In the case of planted forests, the normally higher intensity of management (with respect to natural forest) offers additional opportunities for implementing adaptation measures, at both industrial and smallholder levels. Although the integration in forest management of measures aimed at enhancing adaptation to climate change may not involve substantial additional effort with respect to current practice, little action appears to have been taken to date. Tropical foresters and forest-dependent communities appear not to appreciate the risks posed by climate change and, for those who are aware of them, practical guidance on how to respond is largely non-existent. The extent to which forestry research and national policies will promote and adopt management practices in order to assist production forests adapt to climate change is currently uncertain. Mainstreaming adaptation into national development and planning programs may represent an initial step towards the incorporation of climate change considerations into tropical forestry.     

四川省气候变化适应行动现状、问题和建议研究

作为遭受气候变化不利影响较为严重的省份之一,四川省面临着可持续发展能力提升和应对新增气候变化风险的挑战.文章在简要介绍气候变化对四川省的影响、系统梳理其在适应气候变化中取得成效的基础上,进一步剖析了存在的问题,最后结合四川省省情和气候变化适应行动现状,提出了从健全法律法规到完善适应气候变化的体制机制,从加强适应基础建设到强化适应能力建设等方面的建议.     

毛乌素沙地气候变化及其对植被覆盖的影响

利用1961—2007年毛乌素沙地气温、降水资料,对研究区近50 a来气温和水分资源各分量的时空变化进行了研究,并结合TM影像和中巴资源卫星影像,从气候变化和群落水分收支平衡的角度,对毛乌素沙地近20 a的植被覆盖变化及其原因进行了分析。结果表明:近50 a,沙地增温趋势显著,变化率为0.33℃/10 a。全区域年均温变化趋势的范围为0.16~0.5℃/10 a,且增温的程度存在西北部最强、东南部最弱的趋势。水分资源各分量时空分布极不均匀:东南部降水量P和可利用降水Δw多、陆面蒸散E强,西北部相反。P、E、Δw均呈现出逐年减少的趋势,并且大致经历了3个变化阶段。近20 a毛乌素沙地植被覆盖变化与气候变化密切相关。为适应不断变化的气候需要,在进行沙地治理与生态建设中,必须考虑人工植被建设的可持续性问题。     

Local knowledge and adaptation to climate change in natural resource-based societies of the Asia-Pacific

This paper reviewed 42 studies of how local knowledge contributes to adaptation to climate and climate change in the Asia-Pacific Region. Most studies focused on traditional ecological or indigenous knowledge. Three simple questions were addressed: (1) How are changes in climate recognized? (2) What is known about how to adapt to changes in climate? (3) How do people learn about how to adapt? Awareness of change is an important element of local knowledge. Changes in climate are recognized at multiple time scales from observations that warn of imminent extreme weather through expectations for the next season to identification of multi-year historical trends. Observations are made of climate, its impact on physical resources, and bio-indicators. Local knowledge about how to adapt can be divided into four major classes: land and water management, physical infrastructure, livelihood strategies, and social institutions. Adaptation actions vary with time scale of interest from dealing with risks of disaster from extreme weather events, through slow onset changes such as seasonal droughts, to dealing with long-term multi-year shifts in climate. Local knowledge systems differ in the capacities and ways in which they support learning. Many are dynamic and draw on information from other places, whereas others are more conservative and tightly institutionalized. Past experience of events and ways of learning may be insufficient for dealing with a novel climate. Once the strengths and limitations of local knowledge (like those of science) are grasped the opportunities for meaningful hybridization of scientific and local knowledge for adaptation expand.     

Climate change adaptation strategies in the Mekong and Orange-Senqu basins: What determines the state-of-play?

The challenge of governing transboundary water resources is expected to increase with climate change and the resulting need to adapt to its impacts such as temperature increase, more precipitation in the wet season and less in the dry season. In a number of transboundary basins, international regimes, and in particular river basin commissions, are emerging to account for this and other challenges. Some basins are, however, rather advanced in terms of developing climate change adaptation strategies, while others are in a more nascent stage. For the two case studies of the Orange-Senqu and Mekong river basins, this paper attempts to explain the different degrees of progress towards climate change adaptation by applying regime effectiveness analysis. First, we analyze, using the Activity Diagram (AD) of the Management and Transition Framework (MTF), at which stage in the climate change adaptation policy formation process each of the two basins is. Then we attempt to explain the different degrees of progress towards adaptation by means of regime effectiveness theory. Variables indicating regime effectiveness are taken from the literature and further developed to suit the context of climate change adaptation. We find that the different degrees of progress can partially be explained by some variables of regime effectiveness such as the characteristics of rules and procedures, organizational structure, the role of riparian countries as well as international context. At the same time, the analysis points to the need for an analysis of additional factors that potentially shape decision-making and policy processes for climate change adaptation in international river basins such as (a) the hydrological, political and socio-economic setting, (b) underlying principles of regional cooperation (or conflict), (c) interests and values of the various actors in the negotiation process and (d) the possible linkages and trade-offs with other policy fields.     

土地利用/覆盖变化与气候变化定量关系研究进展

当前,以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化对人类社会的可持续发展构成了严重威胁,如何有效适应气候变化成为人类面临的共同挑战。研究表明,全球变暖的主要驱动力是人类活动造成的温室气体排放和土地利用方式改变。过去,科学界致力于削减全球温室气体排放,而土地利用与气候变化的关系,以及如何适应气候变化,没有引起足够重视。论文重点阐述土地利用/覆盖变化对区域气候的生物地球物理影响机制,总结土地利用/覆盖与气候变化定量关系的研究进展,得出现阶段研究存在四点不足:①缺乏景观格局与气候过程关系的认识;②较少考虑人类活动对下垫面的影响;③区域气候模式存在局限;④适应气候变化的研究不足。针对上述问题,论文指出基于可持续性的土地系统设计是适应气候变化的有效途径,也是未来气候变化领域的研究重点。