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1.
Species that are tolerant of broad environmental gradients may be less vulnerable to epizootic outbreaks of disease. Chytridriomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, has been linked to extirpations and extinctions of amphibian species in many regions. The pathogen thrives in cool, moist environments, and high amphibian mortality rates have commonly occurred during chytridiomycosis outbreaks in amphibian populations in high-elevation tropical rainforests. In Australia several high-elevation species, including the armored mist frog (Litoria lorica), which is designated as critically endangered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), were believed to have gone extinct during chytridiomycosis outbreaks in the 1980s and early 1990s. Species with greater elevational ranges disappeared from higher elevations, but remained common in the lowlands. In June 2008, we surveyed a stream in a high-elevation dry sclerophyll forest and discovered a previously unknown population of L. lorica and a population of the waterfall frog (Litoria nannotis). We conducted 6 additional surveys in June 2008, September 2008, March 2009, and August 2009. Prevalences of B. dendrobatidis infection (number infected per total sampled) were consistently high in frogs (mean 82.5%, minimum 69%) of both species and in tadpoles (100%) during both winter (starting July) and summer (starting February). However, no individuals of either species showed clinical signs of disease, and they remained abundant (3.25 - 8.75 individuals of L. lorica and 6.5-12.5 individuals of L. nannotis found/person/100 m over 13 months). The high-elevation dry sclerophyll site had little canopy cover, low annual precipitation, and a more defined dry season than a nearby rainforest site, where L. nannotis was more negatively affected by chytridiomycosis. We hypothesize this lack of canopy cover allowed the rocks on which frogs perched to warm up, thereby slowing growth and reproduction of the pathogen on the hosts. In addition, we suggest surveys for apparently extinct or rare species should not be limited to core environments.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract:  In the wet tropics of Queensland, Australia, eight species of stream-dwelling frogs have experienced population declines. Some declines were associated with an emerging infectious disease of amphibians (chytridiomycosis) caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. We examined the spatial and temporal pattern of infection prevalence in a sample of frog populations. Infected adults and tadpoles of all species were found, and infections occurred at every site. Infection prevalence varied among species and was always < 10.0% in adults but ranged from 0.75 to 76.0% in tadpoles. In this system tadpoles and adults of some species may act as disease reservoirs, experiencing avirulent infections, whereas other hosts (declining species) experience virulent infections. Infection prevalence was higher during the cool, dry winter season (May to September) and at high elevations (600–800 m), suggesting regulation by environmental conditions, including temperature and precipitation. We found no relationships between infection prevalence and mean body condition, fluctuating asymmetry of hind limbs, population density, or the presence of metamorphosing tadpoles and juvenile frogs. Although it is not certain whether chytridiomycosis was responsible for past frog population declines in the wet tropics of Queensland, the pathogen is now endemic. Our data indicate that at the landscape level, environmental conditions have strong effects on host-pathogen dynamics. These effects interact with species-specific behavior or immune function and may be important underlying determinants of chytridiomycosis epizootics and emergence.  相似文献   

3.
Contributing to the worldwide biodiversity crisis are emerging infectious diseases, which can lead to extirpations and extinctions of hosts. For example, the infectious fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is associated with worldwide amphibian population declines and extinctions. Sensitivity to Bd varies with species, season, and life stage. However, there is little information on whether sensitivity to Bd differs among populations, which is essential for understanding Bd‐infection dynamics and for formulating conservation strategies. We experimentally investigated intraspecific differences in host sensitivity to Bd across 10 populations of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) raised from eggs to metamorphosis. We exposed the post‐metamorphic wood frogs to Bd and monitored survival for 30 days under controlled laboratory conditions. Populations differed in overall survival and mortality rate. Infection load also differed among populations but was not correlated with population differences in risk of mortality. Such population‐level variation in sensitivity to Bd may result in reservoir populations that may be a source for the transmission of Bd to other sensitive populations or species. Alternatively, remnant populations that are less sensitive to Bd could serve as sources for recolonization after epidemic events.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract: Amphibians are declining worldwide, but these declines have been particularly dramatic in tropical mountains, where high endemism and vulnerability to an introduced fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is associated with amphibian extinctions. We surveyed frogs in the Peruvian Andes in montane forests along a steep elevational gradient (1200–3700 m). We used visual encounter surveys to sample stream‐dwelling and arboreal species and leaf‐litter plots to sample terrestrial‐breeding species. We compared species richness and abundance among the wet seasons of 1999, 2008, and 2009. Despite similar sampling effort among years, the number of species (46 in 1999) declined by 47% between 1999 and 2008 and by 38% between 1999 and 2009. When we combined the number of species we found in 2008 and 2009, the decline from 1999 was 36%. Declines of stream‐dwelling and arboreal species (a reduction in species richness of 55%) were much greater than declines of terrestrial‐breeding species (reduction of 20% in 2008 and 24% in 2009). Similarly, abundances of stream‐dwelling and arboreal frogs were lower in the combined 2008–2009 period than in 1999, whereas densities of frogs in leaf‐litter plots did not differ among survey years. These declines may be associated with the infection of frogs with Bd. B. dendrobatidis prevalence correlated significantly with the proportion of species that were absent from the 2008 and 2009 surveys along the elevational gradient. Our results suggest Bd may have arrived at the site between 1999 and 2007, which is consistent with the hypothesis that this pathogen is spreading in epidemic waves along the Andean cordilleras. Our results also indicate a rapid decline of frog species richness and abundance in our study area, a national park that contains many endemic amphibian species and is high in amphibian species richness.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract:  As part of an overall biodiversity crisis many amphibian populations are in decline throughout the world. Numerous causes have been invoked to explain these declines. These include habitat destruction, climate change, increasing levels of ultraviolet radiation, environmental contamination, and the introduction of non-native species and diseases. Several types of pathogens have been implicated in contributing to amphibian population declines: viruses, bacteria, oomycetes, and fungi. One particular fungus, the chytridiomycete Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis may have caused amphibian population declines in several regions. This pathogen causes chytridiomycosis, which is fatal to newly metamorphic and adult amphibians of certain species. We present experimental evidence that larval stages may also be susceptible to exposure to Batrachochytrium . There was, however, differential sensitivity to B. dendrobatidis in larvae we examined. In laboratory experiments, larval western toads (  Bufo boreas ) exposed to B. dendrobatidis experienced increased mortality and behaviors that suggested they were affected by exposure compared with unexposed control tadpoles. Larvae of Cascades frogs (  Rana cascadae ), bullfrogs ( R. catesbeiana ), and Pacific treefrogs ( Hyla regilla ) did not die after exposure to Batrachochytrium and appeared to behave normally. R. cascadae larvae exposed to B. dendrobatidis , however, showed an increase incidence in mouthpart abnormalities, a characteristic effect of chytridiomycosis, compared with unexposed controls. These results show that Batrachochytrium can negatively affect some species of amphibians at the larval stage and not others. The implications of interspecific variation in susceptibility to fungal infection are broad.  相似文献   

6.
Emerging wildlife pathogens are an increasing threat to biodiversity. One of the most serious wildlife diseases is chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which has been documented in over 500 amphibian species. Amphibians vary greatly in their susceptibility to Bd; some species tolerate infection, whereas others experience rapid mortality. Reservoir hosts—species that carry infection while maintaining high abundance but are rarely killed by disease—can increase extinction risk in highly susceptible, sympatric species. However, whether reservoir hosts amplify Bd in declining amphibian species has not been examined. We investigated the role of reservoir hosts in the decline of the threatened northern corroboree frog (Pseudophryne pengilleyi) in an amphibian community in southeastern Australia. In the laboratory, we characterized the response of a potential reservoir host, the (nondeclining) common eastern froglet (Crinia signifera), to Bd infection. In the field, we conducted frog abundance surveys and Bd sampling for both P. pengilleyi and C. signifera. We built multinomial logistic regression models to test whether Crinia signifera and environmental factors were associated with P. pengilleyi decline. C. signifera was a reservoir host for Bd. In the laboratory, many individuals maintained intense infections (>1000 zoospore equivalents) over 12 weeks without mortality, and 79% of individuals sampled in the wild also carried infections. The presence of C. signifera at a site was strongly associated with increased Bd prevalence in sympatric P. pengilleyi. Consistent with disease amplification by a reservoir host, P. pengilleyi declined at sites with high C. signifera abundance. Our results suggest that when reservoir hosts are present, population declines of susceptible species may continue long after the initial emergence of Bd, highlighting an urgent need to assess extinction risk in remnant populations of other declined amphibian species.  相似文献   

7.
Life-history trade-offs allow many animals to maintain reproductive fitness across a range of climatic conditions. When used by parasites and pathogens, these strategies may influence patterns of disease in changing climates. The chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is linked to global declines of amphibian populations. Short-term growth in culture is maximal at 17 degrees-25 degrees C. This has been used in an argument that global warming, which increases the time that amphibians spend at these temperatures in cloud-covered montane environments, has led to extinctions. Here we show that the amphibian chytrid responds to decreasing temperatures with trade-offs that increase fecundity as maturation rate slows and increase infectivity as growth decreases. At 17 degrees-25 degrees C, infectious zoospores encyst (settle and develop a cell wall) and develop into the zoospore-producing stage (zoosporangium) faster, while at 7 degrees-10 degrees C, greater numbers of zoospores are produced per zoosporangium; these remain infectious for a longer period of time. We modeled the population growth of B. dendrobatidis through time at various temperatures using delayed differential equations and observational data for four parameters: developmental rate of thalli, fecundity, rate of zoospore encystment, and rate of zoospore survival. From the models, it is clear that life-history trade-offs allow B. dendrobatidis to maintain a relatively high long-term growth rate at low temperatures, so that it maintains high fitness across a range of temperatures. When a seven-day cold shock is simulated, the outcome is intermediate between the two constant temperature regimes, and in culture, a sudden drop in temperature induces zoospore release. These trade-offs can be ecologically important for a variety of organisms with complex life histories, including pathogenic microorganisms. The effect of temperature on amphibian mortality will depend on the interaction between fungal growth and host immune function and will be modified by host ecology, behavior, and life history. These results demonstrate that B. dendrobatidis populations can grow at high rates across a broad range of environmental temperatures and help to explain why it is so successful in cold montane environments.  相似文献   

8.
Rising temperatures, a widespread consequence of climate change, have been implicated in enigmatic amphibian declines from habitats with little apparent human impact. The pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), now widespread in Neotropical mountains, may act in synergy with climate change causing collapse in thermally stressed hosts. We measured the thermal tolerance of frogs along a wide elevational gradient in the Tropical Andes, where frog populations have collapsed. We used the difference between critical thermal maximum and the temperature a frog experiences in nature as a measure of tolerance to high temperatures. Temperature tolerance increased as elevation increased, suggesting that frogs at higher elevations may be less sensitive to rising temperatures. We tested the alternative pathogen optimal growth hypothesis that prevalence of the pathogen should decrease as temperatures fall outside the optimal range of pathogen growth. Our infection‐prevalence data supported the pathogen optimal growth hypothesis because we found that prevalence of Bd increased when host temperatures matched its optimal growth range. These findings suggest that rising temperatures may not be the driver of amphibian declines in the eastern slopes of the Andes. Zoonotic outbreaks of Bd are the most parsimonious hypothesis to explain the collapse of montane amphibian faunas; but our results also reveal that lowland tropical amphibians, despite being shielded from Bd by higher temperatures, are vulnerable to climate‐warming stress. Fisiología Termal, Enfermedades y Disminuciones de Anfibios en las Laderas Orientales de los Andes  相似文献   

9.
A newly discovered infectious disease of amphibians, chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is implicated in population declines and possible extinctions throughout the world. The purpose of our study was to examine the effects of B. dendrobatidis on the mountain yellow-legged frog (Rana muscosa) in the Sierra Nevada of California (USA). We (1) quantified the prevalence and incidence of B. dendrobatidis through repeat surveys of several hundred R. muscosa populations in the southern Sierra Nevada; (2) described the population-level effects of B. dendrobatidis on R. muscosa population abundance; and (3) compared the mortality rates of infected and uninfected R. muscosa individuals from pre- through post-metamorphosis using both laboratory and field experiments. Mouthpart inspections conducted in 144 and 132 R. muscosa populations in 2003 and 2004, respectively, indicated that 19% of R. muscosa populations in both years showed indications of chytridiomycosis. Sixteen percent of populations that were uninfected in 2003 became infected by 2004. Rana muscosa population sizes were reduced by an average of 88% following B. dendrobatidis outbreaks at six sites, but at seven B. dendrobatidis-negative sites, R. muscosa population sizes increased by an average of 45% over the same time period. In the laboratory, all infected R. muscosa developed fatal chytridiomycosis after metamorphosis, while all uninfected individuals remained healthy. In the field experiment in which R. muscosa tadpoles were caged at infected and uninfected sites, 96% of the individuals that metamorphosed at infected sites died vs. 5% at the uninfected sites. These studies indicate that chytridiomycosis causes high mortality in post-metamorphic R. muscosa, that this emerging disease is the proximate cause of numerous observed R. muscosa population declines, and that the disease threatens this species with extirpation at numerous sites in California's Sierra Nevada.  相似文献   

10.
Abstract:  Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis , is an emerging infectious disease implicated in declines of amphibian populations around the globe. An emerging infectious disease is one that has recently been discovered; has recently increased in incidence, geography, or host range; or is newly evolved. For any given outbreak of an emerging disease, it is therefore possible to state two hypotheses regarding its origin. The novel pathogen hypothesis states that the disease has recently spread into new geographic areas, whereas the endemic pathogen hypothesis suggests that it has been present in the environment but recently has increased in host range or pathogenicity. Distinguishing between these hypotheses is important, because the conservation measures needed to slow or stop the spread of a novel pathogen are likely to differ from those needed to prevent outbreaks of an endemic pathogen. Population genetics may help discriminate among the possible origins of an emerging disease. Current evidence suggests chytridiomycosis may be a novel pathogen being spread worldwide by carriers; until we know how much genetic variation to expect in an endemic strain, however, we cannot yet conclude that B. dendrobatidis is a novel pathogen.  相似文献   

11.
Extinctions are normal biological phenomena. Both mass extinctions in geological time and local extinctions in ecological time are well documented, but rates of extinction have increased in recent years—especially in vertebrates, including amphibians—as illustrated by recent reports of their population declines and range reductions. We suggest that long-term population data are necessary for rigorously evaluating the significance of the amphibian declines. Due to the physiological constraints, relatively low mobility, and site fidelity of amphibians, we suggest that many amphibian populations may be unable to recolonize areas after local extinction.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract:  Emerging infectious diseases may be contributing to the global decline of amphibian populations. In particular, chytridiomycosis, a cutaneous fungal infection of amphibians caused by the chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis , gained attention in the 1990s as an apparently new pathogen. This fungus has been implicated as the causative agent of widespread mortalities among wild amphibians in geographically disparate parts of the world. To investigate the global distribution, historical occurrence, and infectiousness of this pathogen, we examined 3371 postmetamorphic and adult amphibians collected between 1895 and 2001 from 25 countries for the presence of chytrid fungi in the epidermis. Cutaneous chytrid infection was diagnosed in 383 of 2931 (13.1%) specimens of 12 common amphibian species from five Canadian provinces and seven American states, including 30 of 69 locations examined in the St. Lawrence River Valley of Québec. Chytrids were observed in 7.0% (46/655) of the adults collected in the 1960s, the earliest cases being two green frogs (  Rana clamitans ) collected in 1961 from Saint-Pierre-de-Wakefield, Québec. In recent studies, morbidity and mortality attributable to chytridiomycosis were not observed in infected amphibians from Québec despite a 17.8% (302/1698) prevalence of chytrid infection during the period 1990–2001. The prevalence of infection during this latter period was not statistically different when compared with the period 1960–1969. Epidermal chytrid infections were not observed in 440 amphibians examined from 23 other countries. In light of the fact that infection by B. dendrobatidis is widely distributed and apparently enzootic in seemingly healthy amphibians from eastern North America, lethal outbreaks of chytridiomycosis among amphibian populations appear to have complex causes and may be the result of underlying predisposing factors.  相似文献   

13.
In the montane rain forests of eastern Australia at least 14 species of endemic, stream-dwelling frogs have disappeared or declined sharply (by more than 90%) during the past 15 years. We review available information on these declines and present eight lines of evidence that collectively suggest that a rapidly spreading, epidemic disease is the most likely responsible agent. The extreme virulence of the putative frog patbogen suggests it is likely exotic to Australian rain forests. We propose that exotic pathogens may be responsible for some recent declines of amphibian populations on other continents and that the intercontinental spread of such pathogens is greatly facilitated by human activities such as the thriving international trade in aquarium fish. Our hypothesis may help explain why some amphibian populations in seemingly pristine environments have mysteriously declined.  相似文献   

14.
Amphibians are globally threatened, but not all species are affected equally by different threatening processes. This is true for the threat posed by the chytridiomycete fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We compiled a European data set for B. dendrobatidis to analyze the trends of infection in European amphibians. The risk of infection was not randomly distributed geographically or taxonomically across Europe. Within countries with different prevalence, infection was nonrandom in certain amphibian taxa. Brown frogs of the genus Rana were unlikely to be infected, whereas frogs in the families Alytidae and Bombinatoridae were significantly more likely to be infected than predicted by chance. Frogs in the 2 families susceptible to B. dendrobatidis should form the core of attempts to develop spatial surveillance studies of chytridiomycosis in Europe. Ideally, surveys for B. dendrobatidis should be augmented by sampling the widespread genus Pelophylax because this taxon exhibits geographically inconsistent overinfection with B. dendrobatidis and surveillance of it may facilitate recognition of factors causing spatial variability of infection intensity. Several European amphibian taxa were not represented in our data set; however, surveillance of unsampled species should also occur when warranted. Evaluación de Riesgo y Orientación para el Monitoreo de Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis en Europa Mediante la Identificación de la Selectividad Taxonómica de la Infección  相似文献   

15.
Anthropogenic-derived stressors in the environment, such as contaminants, are increasingly considered important cofactors that may decrease the immune response of amphibians to pathogens. Few studies, however, have integrated amphibian disease and contaminants to test this multiple-stressor hypothesis for amphibian declines. We examined whether exposure to sublethal concentrations of a glyphosate-based herbicide and two strains of the pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochrytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) could: (1) sublethally affect wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) by altering the time to and size at metamorphosis, and (2) directly affect survivability of wood frogs after metamorphosis. Neither Bd strain nor herbicide exposure alone significantly altered growth or time to metamorphosis. The two Bd strains did not differ in their pathogenicity, and both caused mortality in post-metamorphic wood frogs. There was no evidence of an interaction between treatments, indicating a lack of herbicide-induced susceptibility to Bd. However, the trends in our data suggest that exposure of wood frogs to a high concentration of glyphosate-based herbicide may reduce Bd-caused mortality compared to animals exposed to Bd alone. These results exemplify the complexities inherent when populations are coping with multiple stressors. In this case, the perceived stressor, glyphosate-based herbicide, appeared to affect the pathogen more than the host's immune system, relieving the host from disease-caused effects. This suggests caution when invoking multiple stressors as a cause for increased disease susceptibility and indicates that the effects of multiple stressors on disease outcome depend on the interrelationships of stressors to both the pathogen and the host.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract: The amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has received considerable attention due to its role in amphibian population declines worldwide. Although many amphibian species appear to be affected by Bd, there is little information on species‐specific differences in susceptibility to this pathogen. We used a comparative experimental approach to examine Bd susceptibility in 6 amphibian species from the United States. We exposed postmetamorphic animals to Bd for 30 days and monitored mortality, feeding rates, and infection levels. In all species tested, Bd‐exposed animals had higher rates of mortality than unexposed (control) animals. However, we found differences in mortality rates among species even though the amount of Bd detected on the different species’ bodies did not differ. Of the species tested, southern toads (Anaxyrus terrestris) and wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) had the highest rates of Bd‐related mortality. Within species, we detected lower levels of Bd on individuals that survived longer and found that the relationship between body size and infection levels differed among species. Our results indicate that, even under identical conditions, amphibian species differ in susceptibility to Bd. This study represents a step toward identifying and understanding species variation in disease susceptibility, which can be used to optimize conservation strategies.  相似文献   

17.
Recent reports of world-wide declines and extinctions of amphibian populations have raised questions about the relation of environmental change to the demise of certain amphibian species. Between 1974 and 1982, 11 populations of boreal toads ( Bufo boreas boreas ) in the West Elk Mountains of Colorado totally disappeared. The apparent cause of extinction of these toads was infection with the bacteria Aeromonas hydrophila . In this paper, the presence of disease in declining populations of these toads is used in conjunction with a variety of data from the literature to formulate a working hypothesis for explaining the cause of the decline of this species, and perhaps others:

18.
The inconsistent distribution of large‐scale infection mediated die‐offs and the subsequent population declines of several animal species, urges us to understand how, when, and why species are affected by disease. It is often unclear when or under what conditions a pathogen constitutes a threat to a host. Often, variation of environmental conditions plays a role. Globally Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) causes amphibian declines; however, host responses are inconsistent and this fungus appears equally capable of reaching a state of endemism and subsequent co‐existence with native amphibian assemblages. We sought to identify environmental and temporal factors that facilitate host–pathogen coexistence in northern Europe. To do this, we used molecular diagnostics to examine archived and wild amphibians for infection and general linear mixed models to explore relationships between environmental variables and prevalence of infection in 5 well‐sampled amphibian species. We first detected infection in archived animals collected in 1999, and infection was ubiquitous, but rare, throughout the study period (2008–2010). Prevalence of infection exhibited significant annual fluctuations. Despite extremely rare cases of lethal chytridiomycosis in A. obstetricans, Bd prevalence was uncorrelated with this species’ population growth. Our results suggest context dependent and species‐specific host susceptibility. Thus, we believe recent endemism of Bd coincides with environmentally driven Bd prevalence fluctuations that preclude the build‐up of Bd infection beyond the critical threshold for large‐scale mortality and host population crashes. Determinantes Ambientales del Endemismo Reciente de Infecciones de Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis en Conjuntos de Anfibios en Ausencia de Brotes de Enfermedades Spitzen et al.  相似文献   

19.
The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has been implicated in the decline and extinction of amphibian populations worldwide, but management options are limited. Recent studies show that sodium chloride (NaCl) has fungicidal properties that reduce the mortality rates of infected hosts in captivity. We investigated whether similar results can be obtained by adding salt to water bodies in the field. We increased the salinity of 8 water bodies to 2 or 4 ppt and left an additional 4 water bodies with close to 0 ppt and monitored salinity for 18 months. Captively bred tadpoles of green and golden bell frog (Litoria aurea) were released into each water body and their development, levels of B. dendrobatidis infection, and survival were monitored at 1, 4, and 12 months. The effect of salt on the abundance of nontarget organisms was also investigated in before and after style analyses. Salinities remained constant over time with little intervention. Hosts in water bodies with 4 ppt salt had a significantly lower prevalence of chytrid infection and higher survival, following metamorphosis, than hosts in 0 ppt salt. Tadpoles in the 4 ppt group were smaller in length after 1 month in the release site than those in the 0 and 2 ppt groups, but after metamorphosis body size in all water bodies was similar . In water bodies with 4 ppt salt, the abundance of dwarf tree frogs (Litoria fallax), dragonfly larvae, and damselfly larvae was lower than in water bodies with 0 and 2 ppt salt, which could have knock‐on effects for community structure. Based on our results, salt may be an effective field‐based B. dendrobatidis mitigation tool for lentic amphibians that could contribute to the conservation of numerous susceptible species. However, as in all conservation efforts, these benefits need to be weighed against negative effects on both target and nontarget organisms.  相似文献   

20.
Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems.  相似文献   

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