水中砷的原子荧光光谱测定结果的不确定度评定

目的 对原子荧光光谱法测定水中砷含量的不确定度来源及其对测量不确定度的影响进行分析。方法 利用相对标准不确定度进行测量不确定度的评定。过程采用直观的因果图,建立有效的数学模型,利用相对标准不确定度分量进行测量不确定度评定,并在砷含量为1．7μg/L的水样测定中,获得其相对标准不确定度为3．4％,有效自由度为25。结论 原子荧光光谱法对水中砷浓度测量不确定度影响因素中,工作曲线拟合产生的不确定度较大。     

水质中肼的测量不确定度评定

基于对二甲氨基苯甲醛分光光度法测定水质中肼的含量,对测定结果的不确定度进行评定.分析测定中的各项不确定度来源(主要包括标准贮备溶液的配置、标准使用液的稀释、标准工作曲线拟合、仪器性能和重复测定的引入等),计算合成不确定度,并获得相对扩展不确定度.     

环境气溶胶中90Sr分析测量的不确定度评定

⁹⁰Sr是高毒性的纯β放射性核素,其物理半衰期和生物半衰期长,环境气溶胶中的⁹⁰Sr通过吸入途径进入人体,对人类的危害主要为长时间积集在人体骨骼中并很难排出。在多堆型核设施运行场址中环境气溶胶的测定是辐射环境监测的重要内容,也是评价核设施运行对环境影响的重要指标。为了科学评价环境气溶胶中测量结果的准确性和可靠性,进行了气溶胶中⁹⁰Sr分析测量不确定度评定的方法研究,通过计算模型识别不确定度的来源,并对各分量进行量化分析,计算合成标准不确定度;结合典型样品分析实例,对环境气溶胶中⁹⁰Sr分析测量的不确定度进行了评定,气溶胶中的分析测量采用的是色层萃取的方法,利用草酸钇沉淀制成样品源,测量样品中β计数率。不确定度评定结果表明:环境气溶胶中⁹⁰Sr分析测量不确定度的来源主要有样品净计数率,探测效率,化学回收率,样品取样体积,测量期间半衰期修正;典型实例分析结果显示环境气溶胶中的相对标准不确定度可控制在15%内。文章中不确定度评定方法为气溶胶⁹⁰Sr分析测量结果的不确定度评定提供参考。     

气溶胶中~(210)Po测定的不确定度评定

~(210)Po是极毒性天然α核素,广泛存在于各种环境介质中,气溶胶中~(210)Po可以通过吸入途径进入人体,对内照射剂量贡献较大。从保护环境和人类健康的角度出发,~( 210)Po是铀矿冶等核设施需重点监测的对象。介绍了一种气溶胶中~(210)Po分析的不确定度评定方法,对不确定度的来源识别、不确定度分量的量化、总不确定度的合成计算和测定结果的表示方法进行了详细研究,最后结合实际样品分析的实例,对气溶胶中~(210)Po分析的不确定度进行了计算,其中~(210)Po分析方法是采用~(209)Po同位素示踪法,将Po自沉积在银片上用α谱仪进行测量。合成标准不确定度计算结果表明:不确定度的来源主要有待测核素~(210)Po净计数率的不确定度、示踪剂~(209)Po净计数率的不确定度、示踪剂~(209)Po活度浓度的不确定度和空白采样膜中~(210)Po本底的不确定度;气溶胶中~(210)Po测定的相对标准不确定度可以控制在10%以内,本方法为气溶胶中~(210)Po分析结果的不确定度评定提供参考。     

火焰原子吸收测定土壤中铜的不确定度分析

运用原子吸收测定土壤中的铜含量时,通过对回归方程和换算公式建立的数学模型中C,V,G,facid,ftime,freap六个分量的不确定度分析计算,最后求出铜含量的标准不确定度和扩展不确定度,根据影响标准不确定度的最大影响分量C,找到减小不确定度的方法。     

连续流动分析法测定水中总氮的不确定度评定

在实验室分析基础上,对连续流动分析法测定水中总氮过程的不确定度进行评定。本文建立了数学模型,对不确定度来源进行了分析,并计算了不确定度分量、合成不确定度及扩展不确定度,最后给出了总氮测量结果的标准表示方法。     

火焰原子吸收法测定总铜不确定度的评定

依据线性最小二乘法的数学特性,提出采用火焰原子吸收法测定地表水中总铜的不确定度的简化评定方法,通过识别和分析不确定度源,对不确定度进行量化,计算合成标准不确定度。此方法适用于地下水、地表水和废水中的总铜含量直接法测定中不确定度的快速评定。     

非分散红外吸收法测定SO_2和NO_x的不确定度评定

对非分散红外吸收法测定烟气中SO_2和NO_x的不确定度进行了评估,分析了不确定度来源,求出各不确定度的分量,最后按《测量不确定度评估与表示》(JJF 1059.1—2012)的规定合成标准不确定度并计算扩展不确定度。结果表明:使用非分散红外法测定SO_2和NO_x的浓度,测量结果的相对扩展不确定度分别为±7.66%和±7.04%,影响不确定度的顺序为:系统效应随机效应,系统效应引入的不确定度分量较大,其中仪器示值引入的不确定度最大,在分析过程中应加强仪器的维护和保养。     

地表水中总氮的测量不确定度评定方法

文章采用碱性过硫酸钾消解紫外分光光度法测定江水中总氮的含量,其不确定度的分量主要有标准拟合引起的不确定度、由氮标准溶液配制成不同浓度的标准溶液系列时所产生的测量不确定度、平行实验数据重复性引起的测量不确定度、水样在消解等前处理过程上产生的不确定度、测量水样体积V的标准不确定度分量。经过计算,标准拟合引起的不确定度分量值最大,在实验时,应引起注意,减小对试样结果产生的影响。     

重量法测定水中悬浮物和全盐量的不确定度评定

依据不确定度评定准则,采用一种新的方法,即忽略量取样品体积的不确定分量,只考虑样品前后两次恒重的不确定分量,对重量法测定水中悬浮物和全盐量的不确定度来源进行了识别、分析和量化,确定了不确定度分量,据此计算出合成标准不确定度。重量法测定水中悬浮物和全盐量的不确定度评定的方法适用于实验室内部不确定度的评定。     

土壤中^90Sr测量的不确定度评估

为满足新实验室认证准则,准确报告测量结果的不确定度,本文对土壤中^90Sr测量的不确定度进行评估。通过分析测量结果不确定度来源,逐一对其不确定度分量进行量化,从而获得测量结果的合成相对不确定度和相对扩展不确定度。对于环境本底水平土壤样品合成相对不确定度和相对扩展不确定度分别为22％和44％（k=2）。结果表明,对测量结果不确定度的贡献大的因素依次是β放射性测量、仪器探测效率、样品钇化学回收率、样品质量、样品锶化学回收率,其相对不确定度分别是22％、4．4％、1．1％、0．83％、0．69％。     

Assessing Uncertainty in Estimates of Nitrogen Loading to Estuaries for Research, Planning, and Risk Assessment

Parametric (propagation for normal error estimates) and nonparametric methods (bootstrap and enumeration of combinations) to assess the uncertainty in calculated rates of nitrogen loading were compared, based on the propagation of uncertainty observed in the variables used in the calculation. In addition, since such calculations are often based on literature surveys rather than random replicate measurements for the site in question, error propagation was also compared using the uncertainty of the sampled population (e.g., standard deviation) as well as the uncertainty of the mean (e.g., standard error of the mean). Calculations for the predicted nitrogen loading to a shallow estuary (Waquoit Bay, MA) were used as an example. The previously estimated mean loading from the watershed (5,400 ha) to Waquoit Bay (600 ha) was 23,000 kg N yr⁻¹. The mode of a nonparametric estimate of the probability distribution differed dramatically, equaling only 70% of this mean. Repeated observations were available for only 8 of the 16 variables used in our calculation. We estimated uncertainty in model predictions by treating these as sample replicates. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of the standard error of the mean loading rate were 12–14%. However, since the available data include site-to-site variability, as is often the case, standard error may be an inappropriate measure of confidence. The standard deviations were around 38% of the loading rate. Further, 95% confidence intervals differed between the nonparametric and parametric methods, with those of the nonparametric method arranged asymmetrically around the predicted loading rate. The disparity in magnitude and symmetry of calculated confidence limits argue for careful consideration of the nature of the uncertainty of variables used in chained calculations. This analysis also suggests that a nonparametric method of calculating loading rates using most frequently observed values for variables used in loading calculations may be more appropriate than using mean values. These findings reinforce the importance of including assessment of uncertainty when evaluating nutrient loading rates in research and planning. Risk assessment, which may need to consider relative probability of extreme events in worst-case scenarios, will be in serious error using normal estimates, or even the nonparametric bootstrap. A method such as our enumeration of combinations produces a more reliable distribution of risk.     

ICP-AES法测定土壤中铬含量的不确定度评定

根据等离子体原子发射光谱(ICP-AES)法测定土壤中铬的过程,建立相应的数学模型并对模型中各个参数进行了不确定度来源分析。结果表明,测定结果的不确定性主要来源于标准曲线的浓度与光谱强度拟合直线方程求铬含量的不确定度、标准溶液和配置标准工作溶液时的不确定度,其次为重复性不确定度;定容体积和样品称量过程的不确定度对测量结果的不确定度贡献相对较小。     

Quantification of uncertainty of experimental measurement in leaching test on cement-based materials

When mineral wastes are reused in construction materials, a current practice is to evaluate their environmental impact using standard leaching test. However, due to the uncertainty of the measurement, it is usually quite difficult to estimate the pollutant potential compared to other materials or threshold limits. The aim of this paper is to give a quantitative evaluation of the uncertainty of leachate concentrations of cement-based materials, as a function of the number of test performed. The relative standard deviations and relative confidence intervals are determined using experimental data in order to give a global evaluation of the uncertainty of leachate concentrations (determination of total relative standard deviation). Various combinations were realized in order to point out the origin of large dispersion of the results (determination of relative standard deviation linked to analytical measured and to leaching procedure), generalisation was suggested and the results were compared to literature. An actual example was given about the introduction of residue (meat and bone meal bottom ash--MBM-BA) in mortar, leaching tests were carried out on various samples with and without residue MBM-BA. In conclusion large dispersion were observed and mainly due to heterogeneity of materials. So heightened attention needed to analyse leaching result on cement-based materials and further more other tests (e.g. ecotoxicology) should be performed to evaluate the environmental effect of these materials.     

Modification of uncertainty analysis in adapted material flow analysis: Case study of nitrogen flows in the Day-Nhue River Basin,Vietnam

Nitrogen flows impacted by human activities in the Day-Nhue River Basin in northern Vietnam have been modeled using adapted material flow analysis (MFA). This study introduces a modified uncertainty analysis procedure and its importance in MFA. We generated a probability distribution using a Monte Carlo simulation, calculated the nitrogen budget for each process and then evaluated the plausibility under three different criterion sets. The third criterion, with one standard deviation of the budget value as the confidence interval and 68% as the confidence level, could be applied to effectively identify hidden uncertainties in the MFA system. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for revising parameters, followed by the reassessment of the model structure by revising equations or flow regime, if necessary. The number of processes that passed the plausibility test increased from five to nine after reassessment of model uncertainty with a greater model quality. The application of the uncertainty analysis approach to this case study revealed that the reassessment of equations in the aquaculture process largely changed the results for nitrogen flows to environments. The significant differences were identified as increased nitrogen load to the atmosphere and to soil/groundwater (17% and 41%, respectively), and a 58% decrease in nitrogen load to surface water. Thus, modified uncertainty analysis was considered to be an important screening system for ensuring quality of MFA modeling.     

Price-based vs. quantity-based environmental regulation under Knightian uncertainty: an info-gap robust satisficing perspective

Conventional wisdom among environmental economists is that the relative slopes of the marginal social benefit and marginal social cost functions determine whether a price-based or quantity-based environmental regulation leads to higher expected social welfare. We revisit the choice between price-based vs. quantity-based environmental regulation under Knightian uncertainty; that is, when uncertainty cannot be modeled with known moments of probability distributions. Under these circumstances, the policy objective cannot be to maximize the expected net benefits of emissions control. Instead, we evaluate an emissions tax and an aggregate abatement standard in terms of maximizing the range of uncertainty under which the welfare loss from error in the estimates of the marginal benefits and costs of emissions control can be limited. The main result of our work is that the same criterion involving the relative slopes of the marginal benefit and cost functions determines whether price-based or quantity-based control is more robust to unstructured uncertainty. Hence, not only does the relative slopes criterion lead to the policy that maximizes the expected net benefits of control under structured uncertainty, it also leads to the policy that maximizes robustness to unstructured uncertainty.     

ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD PLAIN MAPPING1

ABSTRACT: Components contributing to uncertainty in the location of the flood plain fringe of a mapped flood plain are identified and examined to determine their relative importance. First-order uncertainty analysis is used to provide a procedure for quantifying the magnitude of uncertainty in the location of the flood plain fringe. Application of the procedure indicated that one standard deviation of uncertainty in flood plain inundation width was about one third of the mean computed inundation width for several flood population-flood geometry combinations. Suggested mapping criteria, which directly incorporate uncertainty estimates, are given. While these criteria are more suitable for use in developing areas than in flood plains that have had extensive development, the analysis procedure can be used to accommodate property owners who challenge the validity of estimated flood fringe boundaries. Use of uncertainty analysis in flood plain mapping should enhance the credibility of the final plan.