稻麦作物净初级生产力模型研究:模型检验与情景预测

利用我国若干代表性区域98组稻麦作物生产力的试验数据,对所建立的稻麦作物净初级生产力模型进行了检验.结果表明,该模型能根据常规的气象和土壤资料、化肥施用量等数据资料较好地模拟我国主要区域稻麦作物的净初级生产力.模拟值(y)与观测值(x)的线性关系为:y=1.05p-16.8(r²=0.771,p<0.001,n=98).对南京地区的情景预测结果表明:大气CO₂浓度升高促进稻麦作物的固碳能力;气温升高会降低水稻和小麦的碳固定,但对小麦的影响要小于水稻;在当前情景及未来情景(CO₂浓度为540μmol·mol^-1,温度增加1～4℃)下,氮肥施用对小麦碳固定的促进作用大于水稻,氮肥施用量高于150 kg·hm^-2时对2种作物的碳固定没有显著的促进作用,甚至降低水稻的净初级生产力.     

长江流域植被净初级生产力对未来气候变化的响应

研究基于气象观测和B2气候变化情景数据,利用大气-植被相互作用模型(AVIM2)模拟了1981—2000年和2010—2050年两个时段内植被NPP的空间分布格局及其时间变化趋势并分析了其时空变化与气温和降水量的关系。研究表明1981—2000年流域内植被NPP的空间分布大致呈现自西向东、自北向南递增的趋势。未来长江流域气温将整体增加,但各地增温幅度不同。流域降水量有增有减,主要增加区域位于长江源头和上游及中游的江北地区。未来在气温增加幅度较小而降水量增加的区域,如长江源头和上游的青海、西藏、川西及云南的部分地区的植被NPP将增加。在气温增幅较大而降水量减少或者降水量增加不多的区域如长江中游和下游的广大地区植被NPP将减少。从植被类型来看,长江流域大部分森林、郁闭灌丛和农作物的NPP在B2气候变化情景下将减少,每年减少量分别在0~4.5 gC.m-2、0~2 gC.m-2和0~2.5 gC.m-2之间。高寒草甸、草地和稀疏灌丛的NPP将增加,每年增长量介于0~2 gC.m-2之间。     

近20年气候变化对西南地区植被净初级生产力的影响

论文利用大气-植被相互作用模型(AVIm²)模拟了西南地区植被净初级生产力的空间分布格局和多年变化,分析了1981-2000年西南地区气候变化对森林、灌丛和草地净初级生产力的影响。研究表明,西南地区植被净初级生产力的空间分布与降水量呈显著正相关,与海拔高度呈负相关。从年际变化来看,西南地区总植被净初级生产力近20年略有上升。近一步分析表明,由于近20年西南地区自然植被分布区域降水量变化具有明显差异,从而使得不同类型植被对气候变化有不同响应特征。在森林分布广泛的地区,气温升高速率为0.037℃/年,降水量变化趋势不明显,模拟的森林植被净初级生产力没有明显变化趋势。灌丛和草地集中区域气温升高速率分别为0.040℃/年和0.034℃/年,年降水量有明显增加趋势,植被净初级生产力有上升趋势。     

2000～2010年贵州省植被净初级生产力时空变化研究

为了探明贵州省植被净初级生产力(NPP)在2000~2010年的变化状况,以2000~2010年植被NPP数据为基础,运用ArcG IS和SPSS进行综合分析。结果表明:近11年间,草地、城镇用地、阔叶林、针叶林和湿地等面积呈增加趋势,而灌木林和农田则持续减少,其中农田面积变化尤为明显;2000~2010年贵州省植被NPP变化较大,NPP变化范围为778~889 g/(m2·a),平均值为828.1 g/(m2·a),NPP缓慢上升趋势;全省NPP分布有明显地域性差异,铜仁和六盘水为显著增加(P0.05),其余地州市增加缓慢(P0.05)。黔东南年均NPP最高((927±111)g/(m 2·a)),毕节最低((725±107)g/(m2·a))。NPP变化趋势为东南向西北方向递减,而往西北方向NPP波动程度明显;阔叶林和灌木林缓慢下降,而针叶林和针阔混交林则上升。NPP表现为针阔混交林阔叶林针叶林灌木林。     

稻麦作物净初级生产力模型研究:模型的建立

以植物生理学、农业气象学和土壤环境学的基本原理为基础 ,建立了稻麦作物净初级生产力模型 .该模型包括 2个主要功能模块 :光合作用和呼吸作用 ;土壤 作物系统氮素运移 .前者综合考虑了环境因子和作物氮含量的影响 ,后者包括了作物氮素吸收、土壤氮矿化和化肥氮释放的动态模拟 .     

基于遥感信息和净初级生产力的天然橡胶估产模型

建立基于MODIS数据的天然橡胶净初级生产力遥感估算模型,利用2009年生长季(4—12月)250 m分辨率的MODIS数据和气象数据估算海南阳江农场天然橡胶的生长季净初级生产力, 通过天然橡胶的干物质分配率估算阳江农场天然橡胶的产胶潜力。用以树位为单元的地面实际干胶产量与已得到的天然橡胶林产胶潜力进行回归分析,建立天然橡胶干胶产量的估测模型。利用估产模型对阳江农场2010年7月的干胶产量进行模拟,用同期实际干胶产量对估产模型进行精度验证与实用性评价,结果显示7月估产模型均方根误差RMSE为1.78 g·m^-2,相对均方根误差RMSE_r为18.25%。研究表明,基于遥感信息和净初级生产力的天然橡胶估产模型具有较好的产量估测效果。     

气候变化背景下人类活动对承德接坝区植被净初级生产力的影响

承德接坝区位于农牧过渡区,对气候变化和人类活动极为敏感.以植被净初级生产力(NPP)作为评价指标,基于Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算潜在NPP和MODIS NPP遥感影像获取实际NPP数据,利用潜在NPP与实际NPP间的差值衡量人类活动作用下NPP的大小,运用Slope趋势和变异系数法分析实际NPP、潜在NPP和人类活动作用下NPP的变化趋势及稳定性分布,并采用相关系数法分析实际NPP与年降水量和年均气温间的相关性,最终量化气候变化和人类活动对该区域植被变化的影响.结果表明,潜在NPP自西北向东南递增,其变化趋势和稳定性均为自西向东递增.实际NPP与年降水量和年均气温呈正相关区域面积占比分别是99.87%和91.66%.该区域99.85%的植被得到改善且变化稳定,主要是由气候因素和人类活动共同主导(99.71%),而植被退化完全是由人为因素所导致(0.15%).     

人类活动对锡林郭勒盟草原净初级生产力的影响研究

净初级生产力是草地生态系统生产能力的体现,同时也是草地生态系统固碳能力的重要指标。论文利用MOD17A3净初级生产力数据（NPP）与气象资料,分析了2001—2010年人类活动对锡林郭勒盟草原净初级生产力的影响。研究表明：1）锡林郭勒盟草原实际净初级生产力（NPP_A）介于41.32~362.27 g C·m^-2·a^-1,均值为150.78 g C·m^-2·a^-1,有较明显的水平地带性规律,由东向西逐渐减小,草甸草原最大,典型草原次之,荒漠草原最小;2）锡林郭勒盟草原人类活动影响的净初级生产力（NPP_H）介于-185.07~153.92 g C·m^-2·a^-1,均值为-34.80 g C·m^-2·a^-1,人类活动负作用占草原总面积的93.4%,人类活动正作用仅占6.6%;3）人类活动对锡林郭勒盟草原净初级生产力的影响主要是由负作用向正作用转变,且空间分布有明显的南北界线,南部表现为负作用增强,北部为正作用增强。研究可为锡林郭勒盟草地资源的管理和可持续利用提供参考依据。     

基于净初级生产力的中国生态足迹均衡因子测算

生态足迹作为一种非货币化的生态系统评估工具,是近年来国际上一种重要的判别可持续发展程度的生物物理量方法。均衡因子是生态足迹计算中的一个重要参数,它将6种生物生产性土地类型的面积转换为具有相同生物生产力的面积,从而实现了6种类型土地面积的加和,因此,均衡因子是否准确直接影响到计算结果的可靠性与可比性。随着生态足迹方法的广泛应用,其标准化和本地化研究成为迫切的需要。本文采用中国2001年1km MODIS数据,根据植被的净初级生产力,对中国的平均均衡因子进行了测算：耕地和建筑用地为1.71,林地和能源用地为1.41,草地为0.44,水域为0.35,并与国际通用的均衡因子进行了对比。     

极端干旱气候下盐化草甸植被净初级生产力对全球变化的响应

利用作者建立的塔里木盆地北部盐化草甸植被净初级生产力模型 ,模拟了极端干旱气候下盐化草甸植被净初级生产力对全球变化的响应。结果表明 ,在一定土壤质地条件下 ,盐化草甸植被净初级生产力随地下水埋深的增加而逐渐下降。地下水埋深越大 ,盐化草甸植被净初级生产力对地下水埋深变化的响应越敏感。全球变化造成的温度升高对盐化草甸植被净初级生产力的影响 ,也是依地下水埋深的不同而有所差异。地下水埋深较小时,盐化草甸植被净初级生产力对温度升高的反应较小 ;随着地下水埋深的加大,其响应程度明显增加。因而 ,地下水埋深越大 ,盐化草甸植被净初级生产力对全球变化的响应就越明显。     

Sulfur cycle in the typical meadow Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland ecosystem in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

The sulfur cycle and its compartmental distribution within an atmosphere-plant-soil system was studied using a compartment model in the typical meadow Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland in the Sanjiang Plain Northeast China. The results showed that in the typical meadow C. angustifolia wetland ecosystem, soil was the main storage compartment and current hinge of sulfur in which 98.4% sulfur was accumulated, while only 1.6% sulfur was accumulated in the plant compartment. In the plant subsystem, roots and litters were the main storage compartment of sulfur and they remained 83.5% of the total plant sulfur. The calculations of sulfur turnover through the compartments of the typical meadow C. angustifolia wetland ecosystem demonstrated that the above-ground component took up 0.99 gS/m2 from the root, of which 0.16 gS/m2 was translocated to the roots and 0.83 gS/m2 to the litter. The roots took in 1.05 gS/m2 from the soil, subsequent translocation back to the soil accounted for 1.31 gS/m2, while there was 1.84 gS/m2 in the litter and the net transfer of sulfur to the soil was more than 0.44 gS/(m2·a). The emission of H2S from the typical meadow C. angustifolia wetland ecosystem to the atmosphere was 1.83 mgS/(m2·a), while carbonyl sulfide (COS) was absorbed by the typical meadow C. angustifolia wetland ecosystem from the atmosphere at the rate of 1.76 mgS/(m2·a). The input of sulfur by the rainfall to the ecosystem was 4.85 mgS/m2 during the growing season. The difference between input and output was 4.78 mgS/m2, which indicated that sulfur was accumulated in the ecosystem and may cause wetland acidify in the future.     

Nitrogen cycling of atmosphere-plant-soft system in the typical Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland in the Sanjiang Plain,Northeast China

The nitrogen(N)distribution and cycling of atmosphere-plant-soil system in the typical meadow Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland (TMCW)and marsh meadow Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland(MMCW)in the Sanjiang plain were studied by a compartment model.The results showed that the N wet deposition amount was 0.757 gN/(m~2.a),and total inorganic N(TIN)was the main body (0.640 gN/(m~2.a)).The ammonia volatilization amounts of TMCW and MMCW soils in growing season were 0.635 and 0.687 gN/m~2, and the denitrification gaseous lost amounts were 0.617 and 0.405 gN/m~2,respectively.In plant subsystem,the N was mainly stored in root and litter.Soil organic N was the main N storage of the two plant-soil systems and the proportions of it were 93.98% and 92.16%, respectively.The calculation results of N turnovers among compartments of TMCW and MMCW showed that the uptake amounts of root were 23.02 and 28.18 gN/(m~2.a)and the values of aboveground were 11.31 and 6.08 gN/(m~2.a),the re-translocation amounts from aboveground to root were 5.96 and 2.70 gN/(m~2.a),the translocation amounts from aboveground living body to litter were 5.35 and 3.38 gN/(m~2.a),the translocation amounts from litter to soil were larger than 1.55 and 3.01 gN/(m~2.a),the translocation amounts from root to soil were 14.90 and 13.17 gN/(m~2.a),and the soil(0-15 cm)N net mineralization amounts were 1.94 and 0.55 gN/(m~2.a), respectively.The study of N balance indicated that the two plant-soil systems might be situated in the status of lacking N,and the status might induce the degradation of C.angustifolia wetland.     

Nitrogen cycling of atmosphere-plant-soil system in the typical Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

The nitrogen (N) distribution and cycling of atmosphere-plant-soil system in the typical meadow Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland (TMCW) and marsh meadow Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland (MMCW) in the Sanjiang plain were studied by a compartment model. The results showed that the N wet deposition amount was 0.757 gN/(m2·a), and total inorganic N (TIN) was the main body (0.640 gN/(m2·a)). The ammonia volatilization amounts of TMCW and MMCW soils in growing season were 0.635 and 0.687 gN/m2, and the denitrification gaseous lost amounts were 0.617 and 0.405 gN/m2, respectively. In plant subsystem, the N was mainly stored in root and litter. Soil organic N was the main N storage of the two plant-soil systems and the proportions of it were 93.98% and 92.16%, respectively. The calculation results of N turnovers among compartments of TMCW and MMCW showed that the uptake amounts of root were 23.02 and 28.18 gN/(m2·a) and the values of aboveground were 11.31 and 6.08 gN/(m2·a), the re-translocation amounts from aboveground to root were 5.96 and 2.70 gN/(m2·a), the translocation amounts from aboveground living body to litter were 5.35 and 3.38 gN/(m2·a), the translocation amounts from litter to soil were larger than 1.55 and 3.01 gN/(m2·a), the translocation amounts from root to soil were 14.90 and 13.17 gN/(m2·a), and the soil (0-15cm) N net mineralization amounts were 1.94 and 0.55 gN/(m2·a), respectively. The study of N balance indicated that the two plant-soil systems might be situated in the status of lacking N, and the status might induce the degradation of C. angustifolia wetland.     

垦殖方式对小叶章湿地表土团聚体有机碳分布的影响

研究了2种垦殖方式对三江平原小叶章湿地表土团聚体及其有机碳分布的影响.结果表明,垦殖后,粒径>0.25mm的大团聚体呈降低趋势,大豆田中0.053~0.25mm微团聚体增加;水稻田中主要增加的是1mm及0.053~0.25mm团聚体有机碳含量降幅均呈现大豆田大于水稻田,水稻田>大豆田,小叶章湿地>大豆田>水稻田.水稻田比大豆田土壤有机碳储量稍高,但其微团聚体有机碳储量及其占土壤有机碳储量的比例低于大豆田,开垦为大豆田比开垦为水稻田有利于土壤有机碳长期存留.     

气候变化背景下城市应对极端降水的适应性方案研究——以西宁海绵城市试点区为例

气候变化将导致极端天气事件频率与强度的增加,城市迫切需要对未来的极端天气做出适应性反应.因此,为了找到应对未来暴雨极端天气的最佳适应性方案,明确不同方案对暴雨极端天气的缓解程度,本研究基于西宁市海绵城市试点区50年(1966—2015)的气象资料,利用Pearson-III概率分布和线性趋势估计法预测了该区未来50年的极端降水量,进而利用SWMM模型模拟未来50年极端降水条件下的城市内涝情况,并根据模拟结果提出基于低影响开发(LID)配置和管网改造的城市内涝适应方案.这些方案包括:局部布设LID措施、局部布设LID措施结合局部管网改造、全局布设LID措施、全局布设LID措施结合满流管网改造.再次利用SWMM模型对这些方案进行模拟,并评价它们应对未来极端降水的能力.结果表明,全局布设LID措施和满流管网改造的效果最好,全局布设LID措施的效果和局部布设LID措施结合局部管网改造的效果相近.然而,管网改造无法有效储存和利用雨水资源,因此,全局布设LID措施将成为城市应对极端降雨的重要适应性方案.     

从黑龙江省水稻种植面积的时空变化看人类对气候变化影响的适应

1951年以来 ,黑龙江省呈明显的变暖趋势 ,1980年代以来增温尤其明显 ,是全国变暖最显著的地区。对比发现 ,全省水稻种植面积增减的阶段性变化与温度变化阶段之间存在着良好的对应关系 ,但水稻种植面积变化略滞后于温度变化。1980年代中期以来全省水稻种植面积的显著增加 ,特别是北部地区种植面积的显著增加 ,是对1980年代以来显著增温的响应     

Fishery livelihoods and adaptation to climate change: a case study of Chilika lagoon, India

Climate change combined with human activities poses significant risks to people’s livelihood especially in developing countries. Adaptation at the community level is of crucial importance in enabling them to respond to the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate. In a case study of fishing communities in Chilika lagoon, India, the focus is made on understanding climate change adaptation at the community level and scaling it up into the policy perspective through application of Sustainable Livelihood Approach. This article challenges the research and policy community to encourage the identification of locally negative constraints and positive strengths toward climate resilient communities in rural areas.

Estimating realized and potential carbon storage benefits from reforestation and afforestation under climate change: a case study of the Qinghai spruce forests in the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China

Greenhouse gas emission has been scientifically shown to be the primary cause of observed global climate change. The reduction of greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere deserves international attention. Aside from strategies to reduce emissions, increasing carbon (C) storage by forests has become an alternative method to lower carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels. The present study assesses the potential of C storage to decrease gas emission by restoring cleared and disturbed spruce (picea) forests in the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China. We first introduced and tested a new method for live aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation. We then used the method to define the relationship of AGB with topographic wetness index (TWI) and precipitation seasonality for total AGB estimation and quantification of the realized C storage in the live AGB of existing spruce forests. The same strategies were adopted to estimate the total AGB and the related potential C storage in the projected potential spruce forest distribution. A species distribution model was used, and the results showed that the AGB of the Qinghai spruce forests ranged between 2.30 and 4.96 Mg per plot (0.021 ha), i.e., 110 Mg ha^-1 to 236 Mg ha^-1). Actual total AGB was measured at 33 Tg, and C storage was 17.3 Tg in existing spruce forests. Potential total AGB and potential C storage were greater if the cleared and the potential C storage was ~50 Tg.