Measuring disaster recovery: bouncing back or reaching the counterfactual state?

How should one measure the recovery of a locale from a disaster? The measurement is crucial from a public policy and administration standpoint to determine which places should receive disaster assistance, and it affects the performance evaluation of disaster recovery programmes. This paper compares two approaches to measuring recovery: (i) bouncing back to pre‐disaster conditions; and (ii) attaining the counterfactual state. The former centres on returning to normalcy following disaster‐induced losses, whereas the latter focuses on attaining the state, using quasi‐experimental design, which would have existed if the disaster had not occurred. Both are employed here to assess two housing recovery indicators (total new units and their valuations) in Hurricane Katrina‐affected counties (rural and urban). The examination reveals significantly different outcomes for the two approaches: counties have not returned to their pre‐disaster housing conditions, but they do exhibit counterfactual recovery. Moreover, rural counties may not be as vulnerable as assumed in the disaster recovery literature.     

Should all disaster risks be reduced? A perspective from the systems concept of the edge of chaos

The field of disaster risk reduction (DRR) has risen to prominence since the declaration of the International Decade of Disaster Risk Reduction between 1990 and 2000. This decade provided the impetus for a change from the predominant paradigm of disaster response to that of disaster risk reduction as a means of addressing the underlying drivers that lead to disasters. In an effort to promote risk reduction, the UNISDR (the principal agency for disaster risk reduction within the UN structure) formulated policies and strategies to provide both conceptual and practical guidance as to how risk should be reduced. However noble the efforts, this paper contends that the current approach to and understanding of risk within the international community might not be cognisant of complex adaptive systems (CAS) concepts such as the edge of chaos. Specifically, this concept argues that risk (or chaos) within a system is actually a fundamental requirement to the functioning of all resilient socio-ecological systems. Therefore, the reduction of risk without an understanding of the role of that risk within the larger socio-ecological system might actually end up reducing the system’s overall level of disaster resilience. This paper aims to explore the concept of edge of chaos through a literature review of key theoretical works on the topic, followed by a discussion on its implications for the predominant paradigm of risk reduction within disaster risk management policy and practice.     

Dead letter or living document? Ten years of the Code of Conduct for disaster relief

This paper examines the present value of the Code of Conduct for the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in Disaster Relief, in view of discussions on neutrality and the Western bias of the humanitarian aid system, and assesses how it can retain its relevance in future. The Code of Conduct was launched just after the Rwanda genocide of April 1994. A decade later, the crises in Afghanistan and Iraq have sparked renewed interest in humanitarian principles and in whether the code can serve as an instrument to define humanitarianism and guide humanitarian decision-making and coordination. More than 300 organisations have now subscribed to it. This paper is based on the findings of a survey of code signatories and the outcomes of a conference on the value and future of the code, held in The Hague, Netherlands, in September 2004 to mark its tenth anniversary.     

El Niño platforms: participatory disaster response in Peru

Climate change is expected to lead to greater extremes (droughts and floods) in river regimes around the world. While the number of major calamities is predicted to rise, the efforts of the public sector, experts and local stakeholders are badly coordinated. Consequently, aid does not reach target groups, resulting in unnecessary losses. Hence, there is a need for more participatory and integrative approaches. To ensure a more concerted response to climate-induced disasters, stakeholders could coordinate and negotiate within Multi-Stakeholder Platforms. Such roundtables are increasingly being established for vision-building and integrated water resource management, but could be employed in disaster management as well. After discussing the advantages and disadvantages of participation, this article trace the rise of and the problems facing two 'El Ni?o' platforms: one in Ica, a city on the Peruvian coast that flooded unexpectedly in January 1998, and one in Ayacucho, which saw a climate change-induced drought around the same time. The issue of internal and external legitimacy receives particular emphasis.     

Y2K—a humanitarian disaster? Why not?

Australian bushfire agencies have a position that people in the path of a fire should either prepare, stay and defend their properties, or leave the area well before the fire front arrives. The position is based largely on observations that evacuating at the last minute is often fatal and that, generally, a key factor in house survival during a wildfire is the presence of people in the building. In practice, full implementation of the position has been difficult for a range of reasons.

As part of the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) research effort <www.bushfirecrc.com>, our project is examining the evidence base for this position and aims to suggest ways of improving implementation.

We have found that the available evidence, which goes back some 60 yr, strongly supports the Australian position. The position is supported on the grounds of both improved safety and reduced property loss. The evidence also shows that the most dangerous option—and the cause of most fatalities—is last minute evacuation.     

Educational hazards? The politics of disaster risk education in Rio de Janeiro

Disaster education outcomes are highly dependent on the political context of that education. Based on a rich, in‐depth case study of the creation of community monitors in a landslide and flood‐prone city in southeast Brazil, this paper demonstrates how developmental and political environments add much additional nuance to existing theories of behaviourist and transformative education for disaster preparedness and mitigation. Beyond identifying the benefits of education, it argues that disaster risk reduction outcomes are reliant on governance frameworks that alter over time. The study reveals the political complexity associated with programme implementation and cites the perspectives of a number of participants. Disaster education is shown to be the necessary yet underappreciated twin of the militarised and technical approaches that dominate disaster response in Brazil. Understated, however, is education's situatedness: how it can become an arena of conflict between government and civil actors over matters of state and society in increasingly hazardous urbanisation settings in Latin America.     

Humanitarian aid and local power structures: lessons from Haiti's ‘shadow disaster’

This paper investigates the confluence of humanitarian aid, centralisation, and politics. The 7.0 magnitude earthquake in Haiti on 12 January 2010 led to more than USD 16 billion in pledges. By contrast, Hurricane Matthew, which made landfall in Haiti on 4 October 2016, stayed in the shadows, attracting about one per cent of the amount. While the earthquake exhibited one face of centralisation, the Category 4 storm laid bare rural vulnerabilities shaped by postcolonial state neglect, and reinforced by the influx of non-governmental organisations in the ‘Republic of Port-au-Prince’. The study draws on data from four case studies in two departments to illuminate the legacies of hyper-centralisation in Haiti. Compounding matters, Matthew struck in the middle of an extended election that the international community attempted to control again. The paper argues that disaster assistance and politics are uncomfortably close, while reflecting on the momentary decentralisation of aid after the hurricane and its effectiveness.     

Return or relocate? An inductive analysis of decision‐making in a disaster

This paper proposes an inductive analysis of the decision as to whether to return or to relocate by persons in the State of Louisiana, United States, who evacuated after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in August and September 2005, respectively. Drawing on interviews with evacuees in these events and extensive fieldwork in the impacted area, the paper seeks to identify the folk dimensions of the decision‐making process, assess their arrangements, and situate the process in the larger context of risk and resilience in an advanced society. It suggests that, despite the material and emotional upheaval experienced by affected persons, the decision‐making process is a rational endeavour combining a definite set of tightly interconnected factors, involving material dimensions and substantive values that can act in concert or in conflict. In addition, it indicates that there are significant variations by geographic areas, homeownership, and kind of decision. Some theoretical implications, practical measures, and suggestions for future research are examined.     

Integrated disaster relief logistics: a stepping stone towards viable civil–military networks?

The twenty‐first century has seen a significant rise in all forms of disasters and this has resulted in military and humanitarian organisations becoming more frequently engaged in the provision of support to those affected. Achieving an efficient and effective logistic preparation and response is one of the key elements in mitigating the impact of such events, but the establishment of mechanisms to deliver an appropriately integrated civil–military approach remains elusive. Not least because of the high percentage of assistance budgets spent on logistics, this area is considered to represent fertile ground for developing improved processes and understanding. In practice, the demands placed on civilian and military logisticians are broadly similar, as is the solution space. Speaking a common language and using common concepts, it is argued, therefore, that the logistic profession should be in the vanguard of the development of an improved civil–military interface.     

Engaging pet owners in disaster risk and preparedness communications: simplifying complex human–animal relations with archetypes

The influence of human–animal relationships upon owners' perceptions and behaviours can lead to situations that place owners and animals at risk of harm. Pet ownership particularly is considered a risk factor for unsafe responses to natural hazards, though conversely, it can also be viewed as a protective factor that motivates disaster preparedness. However, each relationship should not be treated equivalently, as characteristics considered most meaningful within them differ across various types of pet–owner relationship and along multiple dimensions. A one-size-fits-all approach to applying the pets-as-protective-factor principle is then too broad in scope. This review outlines a novel psychographic profiling approach for archetypes of pet–owner relationship characteristics as a means of describing risk-preparedness foci and risk propensities within disaster contexts. Understanding those differences as detailed archetypes can help emergency services more effectively target pet owners through reframing disaster risk and preparedness communications in relation to prominent characteristics of relationship archetypes. We argue that this approach can improve the effectiveness of risk and preparedness communications by increasing pet owners' receptivity to, and cognitive involvement with, message content.     

Establishing public accountability,speaking truth to power and inducing political will for disaster risk reduction: ‘Ocho Rios + 25’

The problem is that disaster risk reduction (DRR) is still more a zone of political darkness than of light. Therefore, the purpose of our contribution to this theme issue is to illuminate at least some of that zone of political darkness and to suggest a more proactive, but for many career professionals a personally problematic, way forward for DRR. The career problematic derives from the fact that the way forward would involve moving from applauding the emergence of elected and/or appointed champions (from mayors to cabinet ministers to presidents/prime ministers) for action to raising the political costs of inaction by leaders not otherwise disposed. The essential element of this way forward would be greatly enhanced public accountability. We will draw preliminary accountability lessons from the Haiti earthquake catastrophe and the Chile earthquake disaster 2010 events towards the conclusion of this paper as we outline a possible future paradigm.     

On the Forest Vegetation Role in the Flood Control in Light of the Severest Floods in the Yangtze River Valley

１ＤｅｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅＦｏｒｅｓｔＶｅｇｅｔａｔｉｏｎＩｓｔｈｅＭａｊｏｒＣａｕｓｅｏｆｔｈｅＳｅｖｅｒｅｓｔＦｌｏｏｄｓｏｆ１９９８ＰｒｅｍｉｅｒＺｈｕＲｏｎｇｊｉｓａｉｄａｔａｎｉｎｔｅｒｖｉｅｗｗｉｔｈＭａＹｏｎｇｓｈｕｎ，ａｎｏｌｄｍｏｄｅｌｗｏｒｋｅｒｉｎｔｈｅｆｉｅｌｄｏｆｆｏｒｅｓｔｒｙ，＂Ｔｈｉｓｙｅａｒ，ｔｈｅｓｅｖｅｒｅｓｔｆｌｏｏｄｓｏｃｃｕｒｒｅｄｂｏｔｈｉｎｔｈｅｓｏｕｔｈａｎｄｎｏｒｔｈｏｆｏｕｒｃｏｕｎｔｒｙ．Ｔｈｅｍａｊｏｒｃａｕｓｅｏｆｔｈｉｓｎａｔ…     

Does ‘Manna from Heaven’ help? The role of cash transfers in disaster recovery—lessons from Fiji after Tropical Cyclone Winston

This paper contributes to the evidence on the effectiveness of shock-responsive social protection systems in helping affected households recover from the negative consequences of disasters. It evaluates the influence of the top-up cash transfers provided by the Government of Fiji to poor households in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Winston, which struck the Pacific Island country on 20 February 2016. The impact evaluation strategy incorporates a sharp regression discontinuity design to define treatment and control groups, based on the eligibility threshold of the poverty benefit scheme. The results indicate that treatment households—that is, those that received cash transfers—are significantly more likely to report quicker recovery from various shocks. Female-headed households are more likely to recover from the ramifications, whereas households with older heads are less likely to do so. The presence of a functioning market appears to be a major factor aiding the speed of recovery. Finally, the evidence points towards strong district effects on recovery.     

Major Flood Disasters in the History of the Yangtze River

Ｔｈｅｆｌｏｏｄｄｉｓａｓｔｅｒｉｎ１９３１．ＩｎＪｕｌｙ１９３１，ｔｈｅｐｒｅｃｉｐｉｔａｔｉｏｎｉｎｔｈｅｒｅａｃｈｅｓｏｆｔｈｅＹａｎｇｔｚｅＲｉｖｅｒｗａｓｍｏｒｅｔｈａｎｔｗｉｃｅｔｈｅｐｒｅｃｉｐｉｔａｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅｓａｍｅｐｅｒｉｏ...     

Disaster Reduction in the Last Decade by the Ministry of Health

The Ministry of Health has been an active participant in the activities of the International Decadefor Natural Disaster Reduction.Following the assignment of the Government,the Ministry hastaken the responsibility of conducting disaster relief and disease prevention in cooperation withdepartments concerned,and effectively prevented the happening and spreading of major epidemicdiseases whenever the country suffered a catastrophic natural disaster.It has secured the healthand safety of the pe…     

Analysis and Prediction of the Causesto the 1998 Flood in China

１ＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｔｈｅＤｉｓａｓｔｒｏｕｓＦｌｏｏｄａｎｄＳｔｏｒｍＳｉｔｕａｔｉｏｎｉｎＭＡＬＲＯＹＲ，１９９８１．１ＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｔｈｅＤｉｓａｓｔｒｏｕｓＳｔｏｒｍＳｉｔｕａｔｉｏｎｉｎｔｈｅＲｅａｃｈｅｓｏｆｔｈｅＹａｎｇｔｚｅＲｉｖｅｒｉｎ１９９８ＡｄｉｓａｓｔｒｏｕｓｆｌｏｏｄｏｃｃｕｒｒｅｄｉｎｔｈｅｍｉｄｄｌｅａｎｄｌｏｗｅｒｒｅａｃｈｅｓｏｆｔｈｅＹａｎｇｔｚｅＲｉｖｅｒ（ＭＡＬＲＯＹＲ）ｉｎ１９９８．ＢｙＡｕｇｕｓｔ２０，ｈｉｇｈｆｌｏｏｄｗａｔｅｒｌｅｖｅｌｈａ…     

Coordinating the Relationship between Man and Nature—After-thoughts on the 1998 Flood Disaster from the Perspective of Disaster Economics

１ＴｈｅＣａｕｓｅｓｔｏｔｈｅ１９９８ＦｌｏｏｄＤｉｓａｓｔｅｒＡｌｔｈｏｕｇｈｔｈｅｆｌｏｏｄｆｌｏｗｏｆｔｈｅＹａｎｇｔｚｅＲｉｖｅｒｗａｓｂｙｎｏｍｅａｎｓｔｈｅｌａｒｇｅｓｔｉｎｈｉｓｔｏｒｙ，ｔｈｅｗａｔｅｒｌｅｖｅｌｏｆｔｈｅｆｌｏｏｄｈ...     

Comparative Analysis on 1998/1954 Precipitation along the Yangtze River and Discussion on the Causes to the 1998 Flood

１ＴｈｅＡｂｎｏｒｍａｌＩｎｃｒｅａｓｅｉｎｔｈｅＰｒｅｃｉｐｉｔａｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅＦｌｏｏｄＳｅａｓｏｎｉｎ１９９８Ｄｕｅｔｏｔｈｅａｂｎｏｒｍａｌｉｔｙｏｆｔｈｅｓｕｂ－ｔｒｏｐｉｃａｌｈｉｇｈｐｒｅｓｓｕｒｅｉｎｔｈｅｗｅｓｔＰａｃｉｆｉｃＯ...     

Strengthen the City's Ability of Disaster Prevention and Reduction in the Urbanization Process

Since1990's,thecontinueddevelopmentstrategyhasbeenacceptedgraduallybythewholeworld.Theconceptthat"thedevelopmentshouldnotonlymeettheneedsofpeopletoday,butalsoshouldnotconstituteathreattomeetingtheabilityofdemandsofthefuturegenerations"acontinueddevelopmentconceptwillbecomeoneofthebasicconceptsthatwillleapoverthecen-tury.Thestrategyofpromotingourcountrybyscienceandeducationandthecontinueddevelop-mentstrategyaretwobigstrategiesofcountry'sdevelopmentwhichareformulatedintheninthfive-year-planandth…