Y2K—a humanitarian disaster? Why not?

Australian bushfire agencies have a position that people in the path of a fire should either prepare, stay and defend their properties, or leave the area well before the fire front arrives. The position is based largely on observations that evacuating at the last minute is often fatal and that, generally, a key factor in house survival during a wildfire is the presence of people in the building. In practice, full implementation of the position has been difficult for a range of reasons.

As part of the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) research effort <www.bushfirecrc.com>, our project is examining the evidence base for this position and aims to suggest ways of improving implementation.

We have found that the available evidence, which goes back some 60 yr, strongly supports the Australian position. The position is supported on the grounds of both improved safety and reduced property loss. The evidence also shows that the most dangerous option—and the cause of most fatalities—is last minute evacuation.     

Communities and bushfire hazard in Australia: More questions than answers

The issue of communities and their exposure to bushfire hazard is highly topical internationally. There is a perceived trend of greater exposure to bushfire risk which is exacerbated by increased levels of building in fire-prone areas or peri-urban regions. There is a need to clarify what we understand to be peri-urban regions, and how we conceptualise and describe the communities that reside in them, in order that efficient and effective services are provided. However, more questions arise for us. For example: Where are these communities located? What do we know about the people who live there? What are the implications for bushfire mitigation? Despite being problematic, locality remains important to the understanding of communities, bushfire hazard and delivery of services.     

Stay and defend or leave early: Policy problems and experiences during the 2003 Victorian bushfires

Australian state and territory fire authorities advise residents to make a decision to prepare, stay and defend their properties from bushfires or leave well before the fire arrives in their area. The ‘Stay and defend or leave early’ policy is underpinned by strong evidence that well-prepared houses can be successfully defended and that late evacuation is a dangerous strategy. This paper presents the results of a study of the policy's implementation during the 2003 bushfires in North East Victoria and East Gippsland. Results suggest that despite high levels of awareness and support for the policy, there is some confusion over what it means to ‘stay and defend’ and ‘leave early’.     

Stay and defend or leave early: Policy problems and experiences during the 2003 Victorian bushfires

Australian state and territory fire authorities advise residents to make a decision to prepare, stay and defend their properties from bushfires or leave well before the fire arrives in their area. The ‘Stay and defend or leave early’ policy is underpinned by strong evidence that well-prepared houses can be successfully defended and that late evacuation is a dangerous strategy. This paper presents the results of a study of the policy's implementation during the 2003 bushfires in North East Victoria and East Gippsland. Results suggest that despite high levels of awareness and support for the policy, there is some confusion over what it means to ‘stay and defend’ and ‘leave early’.     

Modelling the potential damage-reducing benefits of flood warnings using European cases

In most OECD countries, emergency response to accidents and natural disasters is very dependent on a trained workforce of emergency services volunteers: fire, rescue, medical, care and relief. With its large area, sparsely settled population, and frequent periods of low rainfall, Australia is particularly vulnerable to the threat posed by wildfires. There are an estimated 220,000 rural fire volunteers (in a population of 20 million) in eight state and territory volunteer rural fire services. These fire services have experienced significant decreases in volunteer numbers over the past decade, a trend which is true also of North American volunteer fire services. An investigation suggests that the decrease is driven by two related sets of factors: economic and demographic. Globalisation and deregulation of the economy, and technological innovation, have resulted in structural changes in the nature of work: privatisation, casualisation, self-employment, and demands for increased productivity. These factors make it more difficult for members of communities to volunteer, regardless of their motivation to do so. Further, like many other OECD countries, Australia's birth rate has fallen over the last three decades, resulting in a decline in the proportion of the population aged between 25 and 45 years—a trend that is unlikely to be reversed in the foreseeable future. These economic and demographic changes make it difficult for Australian volunteer rural fire agencies to meet their community protection responsibilities. Responding to these challenges may require radical changes in the way that these fire services are organised and supported.     

Invisible institutions in emergencies: Evacuating the remote Indigenous community of Warruwi,Northern Territory Australia,from Cyclone Monica

Tropical Cyclone Monica is one of the most intense Australian cyclones in recorded history, and threatened several Indigenous communities in April 2006. It prompted the evacuation of the remote island community of Warruwi, and caused considerable damage to the mainland township of Maningrida. The evacuation of Warruwi went smoothly as emergency services personnel, the community and the airline cooperated to airlift some 350 people to designated safe areas on the mainland. We show that local institutions culturally embedded in Indigenous ways of understanding and responding to the world were important in providing essential but ‘unofficial’ services during the emergency. Recognizing and respecting the resilience of the local process involved in everyday Indigenous life is revealed as central to ensuring local cooperation and effective involvement of state and national institutions in delivering effective measures during emergencies. Ensuring that local, state and national authorities offer recognition and understanding of these Indigenous institutions, and develop strong relationships with them, should be a priority in developing approaches that limit conflict and trauma where emergency services risk overriding local protocol.     

房屋建筑的震害矩阵计算与设防投资比确定

本文包括两个内容：１研究了现有建筑的设防延伸率,给出了用设防延伸率计算震害矩阵的分析方法,并用框架、厂房的计算破坏比与包头西地震调查得到的破坏比进行了比较,二者基本吻合;２．通过咨询抗震设计专家,确定并给出了框架、砖结构、厂房的设防投资比。     

The recovery of schools from earthquake effects: Lessons from Mexico City

Much work has been done to prepare schools and institutions for the immediate effects of earthquakes and other disasters. This paper looks at the preparation needed for medium to long term recovery from the physical and psychological effects of earthquakes. Colegio Madrid, a school of 3,000 students that suffered major damage in the September 1985 Mexico City earthquake serves as the focus of this study. The experiences and actions of faculty, staff, students and parents at this school provide lessons for not only schools, but all institutions and communities which may face the prospect of reconstructing themselves following a disaster.     

The responses of professional fire-fighters to disaster

This paper reports the results of a survey of the physical and mental reactions of a group ( N = 72) of members of the South Australian Metropolitan Fire Service (MFS) who were engaged in fighting the bushfires close to Adelaide, 16th-19th February 1983. A questionnaire, designed to elicit reports on both physical and mental reactions to exposure to the fire, as well as perceptions of several measures of social strain and social support, was administered to the firefighters when they came off duty. The results reported show the possible influence of role strain factors in predicting mental reactions, and also demonstrate what may be mediating effects of perceived social support. The paper also discusses methodological problems affecting this and other studies of the reactions of emergency service personnel to disaster.     

Where the exception confirms the rule: The cyclones of 1982-1983 in French Polynesia

The island groups of French Polynesia, which had not experienced any really devastating cyclones since the beginning of the century, were hard hit several times between December 1982 and April 1983. This paper reviews the cost of damage from these cyclones and shows how lowered public awareness of the hazard in a low-frequency area combined with the special economic conditions prevailing in the Territory to make the total cost much higher than it need have been. Ways and means of rehabilitation are analyzed. The development of the thermal imbalance in the Pacific, which appears to have triggered this series of natural disasters, only seemingly exceptional, is briefly discussed.     

Welfare policy: A review

This paper reviews the literature on disaster welfare policy. Analysis of the Australian disaster welfare response shows the different functions of government and voluntary welfare agencies.     

Gender and drought: experiences of Australian women in the drought of the 1990s

A unique collaborative, sociological study undertaken during 1995-7, explored the social construction of drought as a disaster, looking at farm families in two Australian states: Queensland (beef producers) and New South Wales (sheep/wheat producers). A decision was made to interview the women and men separately to test our hypothesis that there would be gender issues in any analysis of a disaster, but particularly one which has had so much long-term impact on individuals, families and communities, such as drought. Interviews were conducted with over 100 individuals male and female. We conclude that drought as a disaster is a gendered experience. The paper draws on the narratives of some women involved in the study to identify 'themes of difference' which confirm the necessity to maintain gender as a variable in all studies of the social impacts of disaster.     

澳大利亚城市灾害应急反应规划研究

初步分析和整理了澳大利亚灾害学者们对城市灾害应急反应规划编制的一般认识,然后纲要性地介绍了澳大利亚某城市灾害应急反应的总体规划及分项规划．籍以借鉴国外城市灾害管理的有益经验,提高我国灾害应急反应规划的编制水平．     

How does living with a disability affect resident worry about environmental contamination? A study of a long-term pervasive hazard

ABSTRACT

While a growing body of research within the environmental hazards scholarship examines how disability affects human responses to major, sudden-onset environmental disasters, little attention has been given to understanding how disability affects responses to long-term, pervasive environmental hazards. Research analysing human responses to land and groundwater legacy contamination in residential areas has identified the significance of demographic and psychosocial determinants of worry, however the question of how living with a disability affects resident worry about contamination remains unanswered. This article provides a cornerstone study for exploring the relation between worry about environmental contamination and disability. A study of 486 adults living in 13 urban residential areas in Australia affected by a range of contaminants was undertaken in 2014. Ordinal logistic regression analysis found respondents with a disability were significantly more likely to worry about contamination than those without. People living with a disability had significantly higher amounts of worry about the contamination than those living without. Changes to residents’ daily habits in response to the contamination and perceptions of personal control over exposure to the contamination present important considerations for understanding the implications of worry for people living with and without a disability in the environmental contamination context.     

Exploring system interactions for building resilience within coastal environments and communities

This paper focuses on identifying examples of first-order system interactions, which make important contributions to building coastal resilience for coastal zone management. This discussion is based on an application of the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework to a case-study analysis of coastal management in South Australia. The study suggests that cross-scale interactions and informal relationships within and between users and managers are key interactions defining resilience outcomes within the current system. A significant constraint on improving resilience was the lack of evaluative criteria for identifying sustainable forms of system behaviour. The paper argues that resilience is a function of a normative statement on the characteristics desirable in the functioning system. Analyses of coastal resilience, which facilitate greater understanding of the range of complexities in coastal behaviour, are therefore central to gaining the most useful insights into the options and pathways for building more sustainable coastal futures.     

The role of schools in helping communities copes with earthquake disasters: the case of the 2010–2011 New Zealand earthquakes

ABSTRACT

This article draws from the author’s four-year study of five school communities hit by the 2010–2011 earthquake sequence in the Canterbury region of New Zealand to highlight the roles that schools played in supporting their communities in the aftermath of the disaster. The article begins by synthesising the relevant literature on disasters, schools in earthquake disasters, and the importance of schools to their communities, pre- and post-disaster. The following themes from the data are discussed: (a) the role of schools in their communities prior to the earthquakes; (b) the role of schools in immediate rescue and response; (c) the role of schools in short-term relief; and (d) the role of schools in long-term recovery. The author then argues that as more evidence shows that schools play such crucial roles in post-disaster response and recovery, we need to better prepare and support them to undertake these functions. Further, we need to recognise the wider roles schools play supporting local communities to build and sustain resilience as part of on-going community cohesion and connectedness, so that society is better prepared when major disasters occur.     

Normalised insurance losses from Australian natural disasters: 1966–2017

ABSTRACT

The paper updates normalisation of the Insurance Council of Australia’s Disaster List in the light of debate about the contribution of global warming to the rising cost of natural disasters. Normalisation estimates losses from historical events in a common year, here ‘season’ 2017 defined as the 12-month period from 1 July 2017. The number and nominal cost of new residential dwellings are key normalising factors and post-1974 improvements in construction standards in tropical cyclone-prone parts of the country are explicitly allowed for. 94% of the normalised losses arise from weather-related perils – bushfires, tropical cyclones, floods and severe storms – with the 1999 Sydney hailstorm the most costly single event (AUD5.6 billion). When aggregated by season, there is no trend in normalised losses from weather-related perils; in other words, after we normalise for changes we know to have taken place, no residual signal remains to be explained by changes in the occurrence of extreme weather events, regardless of cause. In sum, the rising cost of natural disasters is being driven by where and how we chose to live and with more people living in vulnerable locations with more to lose, natural disasters remain an important problem irrespective of a warming climate.     

How communities' perceptions of disasters influence disaster response: managing landslides on Mount Elgon,Uganda

The aim of this paper is to assess the role of people's perception in disaster management. It is based on a study carried out along the slopes of Mount Elgon in Eastern Uganda. People living in the study area have experienced a number of landslides, but the landslide in 2010 had the most far‐reaching effects on community livelihoods and resulted in a major setback to development efforts in the area. Experiences of landslides have enabled the local people to develop a number of interpretations of the causes and effects of the phenomena. The study revealed that community members did not share uniform perceptions. Whereas some members advanced technical or physical explanations for the 2010 disaster, others believed that some form of divine power was behind it. Strengthening social networks and integrating communities' perceptions in intervention mechanisms were identified as possible ways of managing future landslide disasters.