A proposed framework of key activities and processes in the preparedness and recovery phases of disaster management

This paper proposes an empirically grounded framework for examining the preparedness and recovery phases of disaster management activities and processes pertaining to predictable disasters within a developed country. The two‐stage framework provides a single model composed of important preparedness and recovery initiatives, as well as activities and processes derived from empirical data collected for case studies from Australia: the ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires in the state of Victoria in February 2009; and Cyclone Larry in March 2006. The framework enables a variety of analyses, including the generation of insights into disaster management preparedness and recovery in the context of events in wealthy developed countries. The paper combines two empirical examples, a series of bushfires and a severe tropical cyclone, to enhance understanding of, and to contribute to better, disaster preparedness and recovery in the future. The paper contributes to the growing literature on disasters, preparedness, recovery and associated logistics, and other issues.     

Evaluating betterment projects

In the past decade Australia has experienced a series of large‐scale, severe natural disasters including catastrophic bushfires, widespread and repeated flooding, and intense storms and cyclones. There appears to be a prima facie case for rebuilding damaged infrastructure to a more disaster resilient (that is, to ‘betterment’) standard. The purpose of this paper is to develop and illustrate a consistent and readily applied method for advancing proposals for the betterment of essential public assets, which can be used by governments at all levels to determine the net benefits of such proposals. Case study results demonstrate that betterment investments have the potential to deliver a positive economic return across a range of asset types and regions. Results, however, are highly sensitive to underlying assumptions; in particular the probability of the natural disaster affecting the infrastructure in the absence of betterment.     

Build back better: implementation in Victorian bushfire reconstruction

The ‘build back better’ (BBB) concept signals an opportunity to decrease the vulnerability of communities to future disasters during post‐disaster reconstruction and recovery. The 2009 Victorian bushfires in Australia serve as a case study for this assessment of the application of core BBB principles and their outcomes. The results show that several BBB measures were successfully implemented in Victoria and are relevant for any post‐disaster reconstruction effort. The BBB initiatives taken in Victoria include: land‐use planning determined by hazard risk‐based zoning; enforcement of structural design improvements; facilitated permit procedures; regular consultations with stakeholders; and programmes conducted for social and economic recovery. Lessons from the Victorian recovery urge the avoidance of construction in high‐risk zones; fairness and representativeness in community consultations; adequate support for economic recovery; the advance establishment of recovery frameworks; and empowerment of local councils.     

Community‐based preparedness programmes and the 2009 Australian bushfires: policy implications derived from applying theory

The Victorian Country Fire Authority in Australia runs the Community Fireguard (CFG) programme to assist individuals and communities in preparing for fire. The objective of this qualitative research was to understand the impact of CFG groups on their members' fire preparedness and response during the 2009 Australian bushfires. Social connectedness emerged as a strong theme, leading to an analysis of data using social capital theory. The main strength of the CFG programme was that it was driven by innovative community members; however, concerns arose regarding the extent to which the programme covered all vulnerable areas, which led the research team to explore the theory of diffusion of innovation. The article concludes by stepping back from the evaluation and using both applied theories to reflect on broad options for community fire preparedness programmes in general. The exercise produced two contrasting options for principles underlying community fire preparedness programmes.     

Stay and defend or leave early: Policy problems and experiences during the 2003 Victorian bushfires

Australian state and territory fire authorities advise residents to make a decision to prepare, stay and defend their properties from bushfires or leave well before the fire arrives in their area. The ‘Stay and defend or leave early’ policy is underpinned by strong evidence that well-prepared houses can be successfully defended and that late evacuation is a dangerous strategy. This paper presents the results of a study of the policy's implementation during the 2003 bushfires in North East Victoria and East Gippsland. Results suggest that despite high levels of awareness and support for the policy, there is some confusion over what it means to ‘stay and defend’ and ‘leave early’.     

Normalised insurance losses from Australian natural disasters: 1966–2017

ABSTRACT

The paper updates normalisation of the Insurance Council of Australia’s Disaster List in the light of debate about the contribution of global warming to the rising cost of natural disasters. Normalisation estimates losses from historical events in a common year, here ‘season’ 2017 defined as the 12-month period from 1 July 2017. The number and nominal cost of new residential dwellings are key normalising factors and post-1974 improvements in construction standards in tropical cyclone-prone parts of the country are explicitly allowed for. 94% of the normalised losses arise from weather-related perils – bushfires, tropical cyclones, floods and severe storms – with the 1999 Sydney hailstorm the most costly single event (AUD5.6 billion). When aggregated by season, there is no trend in normalised losses from weather-related perils; in other words, after we normalise for changes we know to have taken place, no residual signal remains to be explained by changes in the occurrence of extreme weather events, regardless of cause. In sum, the rising cost of natural disasters is being driven by where and how we chose to live and with more people living in vulnerable locations with more to lose, natural disasters remain an important problem irrespective of a warming climate.     

Stay and defend or leave early: Policy problems and experiences during the 2003 Victorian bushfires

Australian state and territory fire authorities advise residents to make a decision to prepare, stay and defend their properties from bushfires or leave well before the fire arrives in their area. The ‘Stay and defend or leave early’ policy is underpinned by strong evidence that well-prepared houses can be successfully defended and that late evacuation is a dangerous strategy. This paper presents the results of a study of the policy's implementation during the 2003 bushfires in North East Victoria and East Gippsland. Results suggest that despite high levels of awareness and support for the policy, there is some confusion over what it means to ‘stay and defend’ and ‘leave early’.     

Predicting self-evacuation in Australian bushfire

Australian bushfire safety policy does not require mandatory evacuation from bushfire as practiced in North America and other jurisdictions. Australian householders confronted with a bushfire threat must decide whether they remain and defend their property or evacuate. A better understanding of factors that influence householders’ decisions to self-evacuate can inform bushfire safety policy. Studies have identified variables that motivate evacuation from various hazards, including wildfire, but factors shaping the decision processes are not well understood. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a theoretical framework of factors influencing protective response to hazard to analyse the actions of householders affected by two bushfires. Three factors that predict self-evacuation were identified: the perception that evacuation is effective in protecting personal safety; the receipt of official warnings; and perceived threat to property. These findings reinforce the importance of increasing householder awareness and sensitivity to the danger posed by bushfire; the adequacy of people’s bushfire preparedness; the effectiveness of early evacuation in protecting personal safety; and the potential persuasiveness of accurate, relevant and timely official warning messages in influencing safe evacuation from bushfire.     

澳大利亚城市灾害应急反应规划研究

初步分析和整理了澳大利亚灾害学者们对城市灾害应急反应规划编制的一般认识，然后纲要性地介绍了澳大利亚某城市灾害应急反应的总体规划及分项规划．籍以借鉴国外城市灾害管理的有益经验，提高我国灾害应急反应规划的编制水平．     

Media and bushfires: A community perspective of the media during the Grampians Fires 2006

This paper examines the ways residents in the Grampians area in the Australian state of Victoria used their local and their state and national based media before, during and after the 2006 bushfires (wildfires). The researchers were particularly concerned to understand how residents evaluated media sources as trustworthy and credible in relation to bushfire warnings and information about the fires delivered in the media.Analysis of data derived from two separate focus group sessions conducted by the researchers reveals four main themes. (1) The media are perceived as part of a broader information gathering process. (2) Local knowledge is the most important aspect in broadcast information. (3) Members of small communities can feel disenfranchised and resentful of the media when media coverage focuses on larger towns, and (4) the effects of media reporting, including specific warnings, are both immediate and long lasting.The paper explores some of the tensions that result from the ways rural residents use and distinguish between local/regional and metropolitan and out-of-state bushfire information; and it encourages better use of the local/regional media to increase community safety and awareness in relation to bushfire mitigation, preparedness and crisis management issues before, during and after the fires. It is suggested that risk communications professionals need to understand that when mediated risk-related communications are provided, a key evaluative criterion is whether or not those media and the messages represent and reflect local knowledge.     

Media and bushfires: A community perspective of the media during the Grampians Fires 2006

This paper examines the ways residents in the Grampians area in the Australian state of Victoria used their local and their state and national based media before, during and after the 2006 bushfires (wildfires). The researchers were particularly concerned to understand how residents evaluated media sources as trustworthy and credible in relation to bushfire warnings and information about the fires delivered in the media.

Analysis of data derived from two separate focus group sessions conducted by the researchers reveals four main themes. (1) The media are perceived as part of a broader information gathering process. (2) Local knowledge is the most important aspect in broadcast information. (3) Members of small communities can feel disenfranchised and resentful of the media when media coverage focuses on larger towns, and (4) the effects of media reporting, including specific warnings, are both immediate and long lasting.

The paper explores some of the tensions that result from the ways rural residents use and distinguish between local/regional and metropolitan and out-of-state bushfire information; and it encourages better use of the local/regional media to increase community safety and awareness in relation to bushfire mitigation, preparedness and crisis management issues before, during and after the fires. It is suggested that risk communications professionals need to understand that when mediated risk-related communications are provided, a key evaluative criterion is whether or not those media and the messages represent and reflect local knowledge.     

Natural disasters in Australia

The history of natural hazards in Australia and their physical, economic and social consequences are discussed in this paper. The lack of any national programme for hazard mitigation is identified, alongside an overview of Australia as a country where major disasters are accepted as a part of everyday life.     

The responses of professional fire-fighters to disaster

This paper reports the results of a survey of the physical and mental reactions of a group ( N = 72) of members of the South Australian Metropolitan Fire Service (MFS) who were engaged in fighting the bushfires close to Adelaide, 16th-19th February 1983. A questionnaire, designed to elicit reports on both physical and mental reactions to exposure to the fire, as well as perceptions of several measures of social strain and social support, was administered to the firefighters when they came off duty. The results reported show the possible influence of role strain factors in predicting mental reactions, and also demonstrate what may be mediating effects of perceived social support. The paper also discusses methodological problems affecting this and other studies of the reactions of emergency service personnel to disaster.     

多国钢结构抗火规范关于受弯构件计算方法的比较与分析

为了研究受弯构件的抗火性能,及对国内外目前的受弯构件抗火设计方法有一个系统的了解,介绍了中国、美国、欧洲、英国和澳大利亚的钢结构抗火设计规范关于受弯构件的计算方法,并对它们的区别和联系进行了分析。设计了一个算例,分别采用不同的规范计算了其临界温度和耐火极限。经对比分析表明:各国规范的计算结果差别较大,相同条件下,澳大利亚规范计算得出的临界温度较低;无防火保护层时,英国规范计算得出的耐火极限较高,而有保护层时,美国规范计算得出的耐火极限较低。     

Heat-health warnings in regional Australia: examining public perceptions and responses

ABSTRACT

Heatwaves are an increasing environmental hazard and an important public health issue in Australia. Heat-health warnings are being adopted widely to promote protective behaviours, but there has been limited evaluation of public responses. This study used a household telephone survey to examine public attitudes and responses to heat-health warnings in regional areas in two Australian states, South Australia and Victoria. The results indicate a high level of recall of heat-health warnings and awareness about managing extreme heat. Respondents viewed heat-health warnings positively, but the effects on behaviour change were variable. Our findings suggest that the warnings may be reinforcing existing protective behaviours more than promoting change. Perceptions of heat risks were higher among women than men, but lower in older age groups. Evidence of this nature is important to identify ways to improve heat-health warnings and more effectively address the public health risks.     

塔段连接对多塔悬索桥中间钢桥塔极限承载力的影响∗

以泰州长江公路大桥为工程背景,通过有限元法研究塔段连接对多塔悬索桥中间钢桥塔极限承载力的影响。考虑中间钢桥塔的几何、材料非线性及塔段连接的接触非线性影响,采用ANSYS建立该桥局部塔段为板壳单元的多尺度有限元模型,计算并对比在两种典型加载方式下该模型与杆系有限元模型的钢桥塔极限承载力结果。研究表明:两种加载方式下,桥塔的破坏模式基本一致,表现为材料不连续的上塔柱节段局部形成塑形铰而使桥塔成为机构;多尺度有限元模型与杆系模型获得的荷载位移曲线基本一致,而多尺度模型的极限承载力稍高,且差异在2%以内,可认为塔段连接不是桥塔结构的薄弱点,其对其极限承载力的影响可以忽略。     

西安咸阳国际机场污水排放口潜在滑坡稳定性分析

对西安咸阳国际机场污水排放口潜在滑坡的工程地质勘察结果表明,该滑坡处于极限平衡状态。采用B ish-op法参数反演和直快剪试验结果,分别用二维、三维极限平衡法和二维、三维有限元法,对该滑坡进行稳定性计算。结果表明:有限元法(二维、三维)的计算结果偏大,二维极限平衡法的计算结果最小;极限平衡法(二维、三维)与二维有限元法宜选取试验结果的大值平均值,三维有限元法则取试验结果的小值平均值较为合理。最后,根据三维有限元法的计算结果,提出了削坡压脚的防护措施。     

复合填料热传导过程数值模拟

复合填料由废铸砂、粉煤灰、聚苯乙烯(EPS)颗粒、水泥和水按一定质量比例混合制成,具有低导热性、抗冻胀和轻质特性。根据热阻力法则和比等效导热系数相等法则,将材料视为由大量正方形单元体组成,其中心为一个球形EPS颗粒,这种单元体与总体的导热系数相等。运用AN SY S软件对复合填料单元体的传热过程进行了有限元模拟,根据瞬态法导热系数测试原理,推求不同EPS掺入比情况下的复合填料导热系数,分析EPS颗粒与导热系数的关系,发现材料导热系数随着EPS掺入比的增加而快速降低。将材料导热系数数值模拟与实测结果作比较,发现有限元模拟值与实测值接近,说明采用有限元方法可以实现对材料传热过程的模拟。     

Bushfire simulators and analysis in Australia: insights into an emerging sociotechnical practice

The present context of escalating environmental risks places increased pressure and importance on our technical ability to predict and mitigate the potential consequences and occurrence of major natural hazards such as bushfire (or ‘wildfire’). Over the past decade, bushfire prediction in Australia, as in many other fire-prone countries, has increasingly come to involve both trained fire behaviour analysts and complex computer-based two-dimensional bushfire simulation models. During this transitional moment in bushfire management, there is a clear need to better understand the ways in which such predictive technologies and practitioners influence how we anticipate, encounter and manage this natural hazard and its effects. In this paper, the authors seek to prepare the ground for studies of the social dimensions of bushfire prediction by investigating how simulators and predictive practitioners have been mobilised and represented in Australia to date. The paper concludes by posing several questions that bushfire practitioners, policy-makers and researchers alike in Australia and elsewhere will need to address as our flammable future emerges.     

Protecting cultural assets from bushfires: a question of comprehensive planning

Cultural heritage sites form an unrenewable asset that is threatened by natural disasters. Given the high bushfire risk, mandatory Bush Fire Risk Management Plans have been drawn up throughout New South Wales, Australia. We compared their mandatory provisions for the protection of heritage assets with an 'Ideal Heritage Disaster Plan', containing a series of non-negotiable elements. The examined plans fell well short of the ideal. Preparedness Plans generally lacked a discussion of suppression techniques (for historic heritage), prevention, prescribed drills and communication procedures. None of the Response Plans or Recovery Plans contained any of the required core elements, such as rapid suppression techniques and stabilisation procedures. Where aspects were covered, they were addressed in an inadequate level of detail. The overall quality of the cultural heritage components of the plans is judged to be poor. Suggestions are made on how to improve the situation if heritage assets are to have a future following bushfire events.