地震人员伤亡易损性研究

地震造成的人员伤亡与房屋破坏状况有关。本文利用唐山地震人员伤亡及房屋破坏的资料,运用最小二乘拟合方法和迭代计算的方法,建立了地震人员伤亡易损性模型,并与现有其它几种地震人员伤亡预测方法作了比较,该模型在相同的误差条件下预测的准确率更高。     

Information systems and needs assessment in natural disasters: An approach for better disaster relief management

The paper addresses the issue of information in disasters relief. It begins by establishing the need for planning and systematic organization in disaster action, in order to produce a long term effect on the vulnerability levels of communities. Information is introduced as a key element in any phase of disaster management. The different informational needs are described by phases; information types and possible sources are briefly described. The organizational network of information collection is presented and the immediate need for research in this field is emphasized.     

Characterizing vulnerability to water scarcity: The case of a groundwater-dependent,rapidly urbanizing region

Groundwater overdraft is a resource management issue that poses a threat for the security of communities. Impacts of groundwater overdraft are influenced by the biophysical and social contexts of water management. This paper presents a method for assessing vulnerability to water scarcity in spatial terms using biophysical and social indicators. A geographic information system was used to establish areas of vulnerability based upon hydrologic variability in water resource availability within a groundwater basin, three types of water management systems, and 10 sociodemographic characteristics. Our study area is in the rapidly urbanizing Arizona Central Highlands, located ~150km north of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA. Results indicate that the most biophysically vulnerable places do not necessarily intersect with the most vulnerable populations and that local differences in vulnerability are interrelated, rather than independent, outcomes in a process of socioenvironmental transformation. Vulnerability is influenced by laws that deny access to local surface waters and lead to dependence on fossil groundwater, and by economic reliance on urbanization. Localities attempt to reduce vulnerability through the development of community water systems and the expansion of water frontiers. While such strategies may reduce local vulnerability, they are not sustainable solutions because they transfer risks to other places, and thus contribute to vulnerability elsewhere.     

Characterizing vulnerability to water scarcity: The case of a groundwater-dependent, rapidly urbanizing region

Groundwater overdraft is a resource management issue that poses a threat for the security of communities. Impacts of groundwater overdraft are influenced by the biophysical and social contexts of water management. This paper presents a method for assessing vulnerability to water scarcity in spatial terms using biophysical and social indicators. A geographic information system was used to establish areas of vulnerability based upon hydrologic variability in water resource availability within a groundwater basin, three types of water management systems, and 10 sociodemographic characteristics. Our study area is in the rapidly urbanizing Arizona Central Highlands, located 150 km north of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA. Results indicate that the most biophysically vulnerable places do not necessarily intersect with the most vulnerable populations and that local differences in vulnerability are interrelated, rather than independent, outcomes in a process of socioenvironmental transformation. Vulnerability is influenced by laws that deny access to local surface waters and lead to dependence on fossil groundwater, and by economic reliance on urbanization. Localities attempt to reduce vulnerability through the development of community water systems and the expansion of water frontiers. While such strategies may reduce local vulnerability, they are not sustainable solutions because they transfer risks to other places, and thus contribute to vulnerability elsewhere.     

城市防洪的一种方法—纳潮

本文介绍一种城市防洪的方法－纳潮。即以合理的调度运行，充分利用圩区的调蓄能力，降低风暴潮引起的高潮位，用以应付超标准风暴潮。通过纳潮效果与纳潮闸位置，调蓄面积，操作方式等因素的关系分析，表明纳潮是一种可行且有效的方法。本文阐述的基本规律，为工程设计、运行操作提供参考依据。     

Disaster safety nets for developing countries: Extending public–private partnerships

In developed countries, public–private partnerships involving insurance companies and governments often provide security against the human and economic losses of disasters. These partnerships, however, are neither available nor affordable in most highly exposed developing countries. In this paper we examine recent innovations in financial risk management that extend traditional public–private partnerships to include NGOs, international financial institutions and other donors. Importantly, these partnerships provide secure financial arrangements to low-income communities before disasters strike and thus relieve the uncertainty and anxiety of depending on ad hoc post-disaster aid for recovery and even survival. We examine three examples of extended partnerships: the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool; the Andhra Pradesh microinsurance program and an index-based weather derivative for farmers facing drought in Malawi.     

Flash flood mitigation: recommendations for research and applications

Abstract

New technologies promise reduced flash flood losses. However, real-time observations with vast multi-sensor networks, more precise mapping capabilities using remote sensing and GIS, quicker hydrological and meteorological models, and increasing forecast lead times have not reduced losses. In November, 1999, 35 researchers from nine countries met in Ravello, Italy at a NATO sponsored Advanced Study Institute, to discuss these issues and to develop a research agenda that incorporates the various components required to cope with flash floods. The key recommendations from the Institute were: (1) greater emphasis on increasing understanding of the social processes involved in flash flood warning, particularly in the response phases, and (2) the need to reduce vulnerability in sustainable ways compatible with long-term economic and social goals. The relationship between hydrometeorology and social science is seen as critical to advancing our abilities to cope with flash floods.     

Disaster safety nets for developing countries: Extending public—private partnerships

In developed countries, public—private partnerships involving insurance companies and governments often provide security against the human and economic losses of disasters. These partnerships, however, are neither available nor affordable in most highly exposed developing countries. In this paper we examine recent innovations in financial risk management that extend traditional public—private partnerships to include NGOs, international financial institutions and other donors. Importantly, these partnerships provide secure financial arrangements to low-income communities before disasters strike and thus relieve the uncertainty and anxiety of depending on ad hoc post-disaster aid for recovery and even survival. We examine three examples of extended partnerships: the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool; the Andhra Pradesh microinsurance program and an index-based weather derivative for farmers facing drought in Malawi.     

The Dieng ‘hazardscape’: a political ecology of vulnerability to natural hazards in Java’s highlands

This research article describes the construction of vulnerability to natural hazards in the Dieng Plateau of Central Java, Indonesia. The Dieng Plateau is a volcanically hazardous landscape, featuring a series of craters with a history of recurrent phreatic eruptions and emission of poisonous gases. Drawing on four months of in-depth fieldwork, this article applies the ‘hazardscape’ as a conceptual lens to describe how economic necessity and political processes frame volcanic risk, and how this influences vulnerability. Vulnerability in Dieng is linked to its history of upland settlement, the unequal spatial distribution of land prices, and the impact of internal state-led territorialisation strategies. Territorialisation strategies are characterised by the spatial designation of certain areas as ‘hazardous’, a process that historically led to the relocation of upland Javanese farmers to the outer islands as part of the politically significant transmigration programme. However, these territorial zones were locally contested, leading to the reoccupation of hazardous land with mixed outcomes for conditions of vulnerability. By unpacking the political construction of risk, through the concepts of territoriality and the hazardscape, this article demonstrates how the utilisation of hazardous land can bring economic opportunity alongside disadvantage in Java’s volcanic landscapes.     

区域减灾与可持续发展

根据我国区域灾害的特点, 分析了灾害实际中存在的问题, 提出了区域灾害研究必须加强承灾体脆弱性研究, 走可持续发展之路     

自然灾害研究的新趋势——社会易损性分析

社会易损性分析在自然灾害及减灾中的重要性是近期才被认识到的。本文分析了自然灾害、易损性和灾难的概念,探讨了社会易损性的内容、分析评价方法及其应用。今后应充分注意社会易损性分析在自然灾害和减灾研究中的重要性,积极开展社会易损性分析和评价研究。     

Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Disaster vulnerability of businesses in the 2001 Nisqually earthquake

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of the February, 2001, Nisqually earthquake on businesses. Focusing on two hard-hit business districts in Seattle, the study investigates the extent of losses, patterns of disparities, and underlying loss factors. A conceptual framework is proposed of how business vulnerability dimensions contribute to disaster loss. Interviews were conducted with owners and managers of 107 businesses. Data were gathered on impacts, methods of finance, and disaster preparedness. Results showed that business losses were much greater than what standard statistical data would imply. Analysis found that a composite index of vulnerability—based on business sector, size, and building occupancy tenure—provides a very powerful predictor of business loss. Physical damage was a much weaker predictor of loss. Moreover, business recovery was influenced not only by characteristics of the business itself, but also by conditions in the neighborhood.     

The creation of vulnerability to natural disaster: Case studies from the Dominican Republic*

This paper argues that natural disasters are not a category of events which can be separated from the broader Issues of development, since economic change can create vulnerability to natural disaster. The analysis of case studies from the Dominican Republic shows how the development of large scale commercialized agricultural production has created such vulnerability by reducing or restricting the resource base of certain sectors of the population. It b suggested that the vulnerable state of a population should be considered as much a cause of natural disaster as the extreme physical phenomena Involved. Therefore there Is a need both for a broader framework for analysis of disasters and for strategies to reduce such vulnerability to be an Integral part of long term development planning.     

Long-term gendered consequences of permanent disabilities caused by the 2005 Pakistan earthquake

This study documents the long-term gendered impact of the 2005 Pakistan earthquake on women and men who were rendered paraplegic as a result of spinal cord injuries sustained during the disaster. Coping mechanisms are also mapped. The findings show that three years after the disaster, paraplegic women are socially, emotionally, and financially isolated. The small stipend they receive is a significant source of income, but it has also led to marital distrust, violence, and abuse. In contrast, men receive full social and emotional support. Their key concern is that the government is not providing them with opportunities to be economically productive. Contemporary discourse and post-disaster policies, while acknowledging the importance of incorporating a gender perspective in the immediate post-disaster period, have failed to acknowledge and address the longer-term gendered impact of disasters, in terms of the different types of impact and strategies adopted by women and men.     

地貌对矿区环境,灾害的影响与对策

论述了地貌对矿区环境、灾害的产生及发展的影响,并以中国几个矿区的实例论述这一问题,同时,提出一些减缓影响的对策．     

In the aftermath of the Qa'yamat:1 the Kashmir earthquake disaster in northern Pakistan

This article explores the local impact of the catastrophic earthquake in northern Pakistan on 8 October 2005. Drawing on field research, including interviews with 40 earthquake survivors, the post-disaster analysis presented here focuses upon risk awareness and the reactions of respondents to the 7.6 magnitude earthquake that devastated areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir State, and North-West Frontier Province. The analysis provides insights into local perceptions of seismic hazard and exposure as well as survivors' priorities with regard to rebuilding and reconstruction. The article suggests that the tragedy of the devastating earthquake is entangled in a deeper knot of causal factors that are social, economic and political in nature. Rapid population growth, urbanisation, changing building styles, environmental degradation and lack of preparedness and mitigation are associated with the circumstances that place the population at risk. Remarks concerning present and future risk reduction efforts are included.     

Towards an integrated approach of disaster and environment management: A case study of Thua Thien Hue province, central Viet Nam

Objetivo: El objetivo de este estudio era examinar los problemas emocionales y comportamentales de niños refugiados no acompañados que fueron repatriados a Vietnam de los centros de refugiados de Hong-Kong y del Sudeste asiático. Los niños fueron comparados con una muestra emparejada de niños que nunca dejaron Vietnam.Método: La muestra estaba compuesta por un total de 455 niños vietnamitas de edades comprendidas entre los 10 y los 22 años. Un total de 238 niños habían residido previamente sin sus padres en campos de refugiados. Se recogieron datos aplicando la versión de autoinforme para jóvenes del Achenbach (Youth Self-Report), la Escala de Autoeficacia Percibida de Cowen, una escala de Soporte Social y una escala de Exposición al Trauma.Resultados: No se observaron diferencias significativas entre los grupos de niños en la puntuación total del YSR. Los niños previamente refugiados tuvieron puntuaciones más bajas que los niños del grupo control en la escala de “problemas de conducta externalizados”. Se observó una tendencia en los niños refugiados a presentar puntuaciones más altas que los niños del grupo control en la escala de “problemas de conducta internalizados”. No se observaron diferencias entre los dos grupos en la eficacia autopercibida, el número de fuentes de apoyo social y las experiencias de apoyo social. Otros análisis mostraron que una interacción significativa entre la condición de inmigrantes de los niños y su percepción subjetiva del actual nivel de vida explicó las diferencias en las puntuaciones en el YSR.Conclusión: Los resultados sugieren que la experiencia de vivir sin sus padres en un campo de refugiados no conduce a presentar más problemas emocionales y de conducta en los años posteriores inmediatos a la repatriación.