Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

我国多元化巨灾保险模式初探∗

为健全完善我国多元化巨灾保险模式,在研究我国巨灾风险和巨灾保险现状,分析国外巨灾保险制度的基础上,提出 4 个方面的途径：（1）坚持政府主导,为城乡居民提供基本普惠保险;（2）发挥市场作用,为不同群体提供更加丰富的保险产品;（3）运用金融工具,建立多元协同的风险分散机制;（4）注重“以防为主”,提高我国防灾减灾救灾能力。建议统筹政府、保险行业、减灾部门和社会资本的资源和力量,构建基本保障能“兜底”、保险产品多元化、 风险分散有支撑的运行模式和工作机制,构筑巨灾风险共同体,提高全社会的抗灾韧性,为人民群众安居乐业提供可靠的安全保障。     

应对闽南4市地震损失的金融手段

随着我国经济和社会的快速发展,人口和财富的密度越来越高,地震造成的损失也越来越严重。应用金融手段可以使地震风险与资本市场充分融合,缓解其给个人和社会造成的冲击。依据闽南地区4个重要城市的震害预测成果,讨论了如何应用地震保险和巨灾债券等金融手段减轻泉州海外未来大地震可能造成的损失。     

地震巨灾债券雏议

初步研究了一种新的减灾金融手段--巨灾债券.在考虑地震巨灾发生的可能性、发行商将筹镲集来的资金再投资取得的收益、巨灾发生后返还本金的比例和债券的发行费用等因素的基础上,以发行商和投资者双方利益的平衡为原则,密切结合工程地震风险评估,探讨了巨灾债券利率的确定方法.结合我国某个具体地区按文中所述方法设计的地震巨灾债券实例,估算了债券产品可能的利率、相应的发行费用和再投资收益率,据此讨论了我国发行地震巨灾债券的可行性和生命力.     

巨灾保险衍生品

巨灾保险衍生品将巨灾风险引入资本市场，扩大了巨灾保险的融资渠道，增加了保险市场的承保能力，已经成为巨灾保险的重要补充手段之一。系统总结了巨灾保险衍生品的发展过程，介绍了几种较常见的巨灾保险衍生品。由于我国巨灾保险正处于探索阶段，建议借鉴发达国家和地区的巨灾风险管理经验，将巨灾保险衍生品作为补充手段，推动我国巨灾保险的发展。     

中国财产保险业巨灾损失赔付能力实证分析

商业保险是社会化巨灾风险分散机制的重要组成部分,要在中国现阶段巨灾事件频发的复杂环境中构建合理的损失分摊机制,不能不考虑以损失补偿为主要功能的财产保险业应对巨灾损失的能力。在Cummins、Doherty和Anita的保险赔付能力度量模型框架及改进后的损失对数正态分布假设下,引入1998～2008年中国财产保险业经营数据,对2009年初时点上在中国大陆经营财产保险业务的39家财产保险公司及全行业巨灾损失赔付能力进行了实证分析。结果显示,由于全行业资本与盈余的低水平以及再保险市场发展的严重滞后,在1 200亿到2 000亿元的损失区间内,中国财产保险业的赔付能力缺口在26.8亿到815.6亿元之间,且缺口增长速度大于损失增长速度。通过与2008年初的赔付能力实证分析结果对比发现,灾害频发的2008年客观上显著降低了中国财产保险行业应对极端损失的能力。度量结果从实证基础上昭示了政府大力扶持和参与巨灾保险体系建设的必要性和紧迫性。     

防灾工程动态投资决策方法初探

本文提出了防灾工程的抗力、灾损度和灾害的灾度、灾害势以及动态决策准则等概念,基于现代控制理论,初步建立了防灾工程动态投资决策的一般方法,并对其进行了理论分析和研究。这里的决策包括防灾工程的初始投资(或设防水平)决策及其防灾规划期(或寿命期)内的防灾减灾维护投资(或维护水平)决策.文中还给出了算例,对上述方法进行了应用。算例结果表明,本文提出的防灾工程动态投资决策方法具有比较显著的经济效益。     

巨灾风险评估模型的发展与研究

巨灾已经成为全球经济损失的重要原因之一。近20年来,巨灾频繁发生,造成了重大的人员伤亡和财产损失,巨灾的发生甚至可能造成国家政治经济的不稳定。因此如何进行巨灾风险管理并减轻巨灾事件发生后所造成的损害,便成为一个相当重要的研究课题。巨灾风险评估模型作为应对巨灾风险最为有效的分析工具,近20年来得到了长足的发展,同时巨灾模型已成为巨灾保险设立的根本依据。对巨灾模型的发展与模型构架进行了综述,并结合我国的实际情况提出了一些建议。     

灾难模型化及其国外主要开发商

简略分析了灾难模型化和它在保险业中的应用;介绍了当前国外从事灾难模型化的主要研发单位,包括独立的模型化公司、大学研究所、再保险公司、再保险中介经纪公司和政府机构。同时收集了一些最近灾难模型化些文献,希望这些信息能有助于同行在我国减灾保险方面的研究。     

中国城市综合灾害风险管理现状与对策

世界性城市灾害的加剧已成为城市化进程中的一大障碍，它也是城市化过程的产物。如何协调城市化过程与城市综合灾害风险管理，已成为当今世界、特别是像中国这样的发展中国家可持续发展的一大难题。在综述了中国城市灾害及其风险管理现状的基础上，通过对其薄弱环节的综合分析，依据作者提出的综合灾害风险管理模式，就中国城市综合灾害风险管理对策提出了3条政策建议：即完善城市灾害风险管理的信息保障机制，特别是灾害预警体系、信息共享体系和信息公开机制；加强城市综合减灾能力的建设，特别是明确城市建设中减灾工程与非工程设施投入的固定比例，完善减灾教育宣传体系和综合灾害应急响应的科技平台体系；建立城市综合灾害风险管理范式，特别是高度重视城市规划中综合减灾规划的改进和完善，加快拓展城市企业灾害保险与再保险和发展适应城市灾害风险的“安全社区”范式。     

A fresh perspective on food safety in Canada: risk communication,public involvement,and the impact of the 2008 listeriosis outbreak

While the listeriosis outbreak of 2008 brought attention to food safety decision making in Canada, little of that attention was placed on public involvement and risk communication. With a primary focus on Health Canada (HC) and the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA), this article describes the state of microbial-related public involvement and risk communication undertakings and suggests ways in which improvements can be made. The findings show that public involvement and risk communication activities have been strengthened since the outbreak, but they have become neither dialogical nor highly participatory. HC engages with experts to a far greater extent than with the lay public and it has fallen short in fulfilling its stated commitment to openness and transparency. Furthermore, both HC's and the CFIA's approach to risk communication has been overly general, has failed to provide opportunities for dialogue with vulnerable and more general groups with whom it is communicating and is not rooted in foodborne surveillance data. Public involvement in food safety governance would be improved if HC provided the lay public with a seat on advisory committees and improved its public involvement reporting methods. HC and the CFIA could also make risk communication improvements by creating opportunities for dialogue between officials and the general public, and by exploring alternative risk communication vehicles, such as food labels.     

The interplay between climate change and disaster risk reduction policy: evidence from Mexico

Mexico gained worldwide reputation for its efforts to develop both climate change (CC) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies at the national and international levels. However, the integration of agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Hyogo and Sendai Frameworks into the national institutional setting has been challenging in terms of creating a coherent national risk reduction policy. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the interplay between DRR and CC domains; it provides evidence for the situation in Mexico by comparing the institutions and main actors in both fields as well as the financial and operational instruments currently in force. The comparison is based on institutions’ jurisdictions, priorities and lines of action. This paper synthesises the most important policy instruments, their meeting points and their contradictions and discusses the implications of such policy setting for the implementation of effective CC risk policies. The study depicts a fragmented policy interface with serious shortcomings in terms of the institutional design necessary to coordinate actions. The article concludes that, despite the multiple conceptual and political intersections between both policy fields, the implementation of specific, shared actions would hardly overcome the difficulties imposed by the current, fragmented normative frameworks and jurisdictions.     

资本资产定价模型在工程地震保险费率厘定中的应用

作为国际金融市场的重要组成部分,保险市场在当下的全球经济复苏中发挥着重要作用。保险是地震灾害危机处理的一种重要方式。现有的工程地震保费厘定通常只着力于纯保费,对风险附加费的考量往往依经验,从而导致保费中无法体现对风险的补偿,成为工程地震险发展的瓶颈。本文通过将金融市场中的资本资产定价模型(CAPM)引入工程地震险的定价分析,从资本市场的角度探讨该模型在工程地震险定价中的应用,弥补了传统工程地震险保费厘定方法的固有缺陷,使得保费计算更为科学合理。最后,应用于一具体工程实例,验证了该模型的可行性和有效性。     

Application of catastrophe loss modelling to promote property insurance in developing countries

Many mega cities in developing countries are exposed to the sources of natural catastrophes, particularly seismic activity. A high level of seismic hazard in some of these places, coupled with a relatively high degree of vulnerability within the built environment, can result in dire human and economic consequences. This paper contains examples of such potentially disruptive factors in relation to Tehran, Iran. It presents preliminary seismic loss estimates for residential buildings in a pilot area of northern Tehran. The paper briefly investigates the effectiveness of risk management measures and loss compensation mechanisms before assessing the feasibility of an insurance‐based risk transfer instrument for managing potential seismic losses among residential buildings in Tehran. It goes on to suggest how probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling can help local insurers to manage their portfolios and facilitate risk sharing among insurance companies and households. Finally, the paper addresses the question of how catastrophe loss modelling can help to strengthen the penetration of property insurance in developing countries.     

Financial services and disaster risk finance: Examples from the community level

Increased attention has recently been given to the possible role of financial services in the management of natural disaster risk. Local communities have been at the forefront of developing innovative disaster risk finance strategies and implementing risk-oriented incentive programs. In view of increasing risks, including the impacts of climate change, such programs will become more important. This paper examines four models and some recent experiences in using financial services at the community level. The paper offers an overview of advantages and limitations of each model to manage disaster risk in communities. Examples include a federal government initiated scheme of social protection funds, a local government risk reduction scheme, an insurance product provided by a non-governmental organization , and a micro-insurance scheme. Finally, the paper offers some directions about specific ways that the public and private sectors, in collaboration with other partners can improve finance alternatives for disaster management at the community level. It appears that a range of follow-up studies and further dialogue is needed, in order to expand the knowledge on what types of risk finance models can help manage and reduce the financial impacts of natural disasters.     

Financial services and disaster risk finance: Examples from the community level

Increased attention has recently been given to the possible role of financial services in the management of natural disaster risk. Local communities have been at the forefront of developing innovative disaster risk finance strategies and implementing risk-oriented incentive programs. In view of increasing risks, including the impacts of climate change, such programs will become more important. This paper examines four models and some recent experiences in using financial services at the community level. The paper offers an overview of advantages and limitations of each model to manage disaster risk in communities. Examples include a federal government initiated scheme of social protection funds, a local government risk reduction scheme, an insurance product provided by a non-governmental organization, and a micro-insurance scheme. Finally, the paper offers some directions about specific ways that the public and private sectors, in collaboration with other partners can improve finance alternatives for disaster management at the community level. It appears that a range of follow-up studies and further dialogue is needed, in order to expand the knowledge on what types of risk finance models can help manage and reduce the financial impacts of natural disasters.     

农业病虫害的灾变预测及预报精度分析

在农业病虫害突变规律的研究基础上,建立了定性与定量的尖角突变模型,确定了各病虫的突变区域。根据综合控制变量所确定的边界值,对未来病虫发生发展趋势进行预测。经多年历史资料检验和1992年农业病虫害发生突变的趋势预报证明:准确率高,覆盖面广。     

五论灾害系统研究的理论与实践

作者曾分别于1991、1996、2002和2005年发表了关于灾害研究理论与实践的4篇文章,对灾害系统的性质、动力学机制、综合减灾范式,以及灾害科学体系等进行了探讨.在前4篇文章的基础上,就当前国际上灾害风险综合研究的趋势、应对巨灾行动,以及防范巨灾风险和加强综合减灾学科建设等方面进行了综合分析,阐述了对"区域灾害系统"作为"社会-生态系统"、"人地关系地域系统"和"可划分类型与多级区划体系"本质的认识;区分了"多灾种叠加"与"灾害链"损失评估的差异;论证了"综合灾害风险防范的结构、功能,及结构与功能优化模式";构建了由灾害科学、应急技术和风险管理共同组成的"灾害风险科学"学科体系.研究结果表明,通过综合减灾,防范巨灾风险已成为区域和全球可持续发展的重要措施,这一措施与资源节约型与环境友好型社会的建设,循环经济模式的发展,以及低碳经济模式的建立,共同构成了可持续发展战略实施的支撑体系.     

Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk‐prone small Caribbean islands

Post‐catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004—with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases—regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric‐based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives‐based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability.     

巨灾债券与政府灾害救助

发生概率小而损失巨大的巨灾无疑对国民经济有着重要的影响。我国幅员辽阔，尽管每年灾害的性质和发生地点不同，但是损失总量和政府救灾的支付总量却是一个稳定的大数，然而依然不能满足救灾与恢复生产的需要。借鉴经济发达国家保险业的巨灾债券，首次提出在政府救灾中引入市场机制——发行政府巨灾债券。这对于投资者是收益高的风险投资，对于政府可以减轻公共财政负担，而对于受灾地区则可以获得更多的资金支援，加快恢复生产，保证经济增长的稳定性。