Trauma and short-fuse weather warning perceptions

The purpose of this research was to assess the importance of psychological trauma in understanding reactions to short lead time weather warnings. The research consisted of two case studies, one in Denver, Colorado and the other in Austin, Texas. A total of 61 individuals with 9 or greater traumas were compared to 281 non-trauma exposed individuals. Results demonstrated significant differences on questions related to general beliefs about flash floods and warning perceptions as well as reported anticipated actions during a flash flood at home. Results suggest high trauma exposure may lead to more threat sensitivity and a higher probability of initiated action in a home-based flash flood.     

凝冻灾害特征及其天气成因分析

利用2008年1月10日至2月2日南方特大雨雪冰冻灾害期间主要受灾地区气象观测数据,对灾害期间各地出现的天气现象及其致灾机理差异进行了分析比较,并以贵州为代表对凝冻灾害特征及其天气成因进行了分析总结,主要得到以下结论:(1)2008年初南方受灾地区西段即贵州全省、湖南西部以及云南东北部、广西北部主要是由于冻雨、湿雪造成的凝冻灾害,东段的江西、安徽、浙江等长江中下游地区主要是以雪灾为代表的冰冻灾害,而整个南方受灾地区低温雨雪混合冻结的情况比较普遍;(2)凝冻灾害的特征是在物体表面形成覆冰层,其形成过程中一般有液态水向固态冰的转化;(3)凝冻灾害具有多种覆冰致灾机制,包括雨凇、雾凇、湿雪以及雨雾或雨雪混合冻结,其危害性比一般的冰冻灾害更为严重;(4)凝冻天气现象包括冻雨、冻毛雨、雨夹雪、过冷雾、湿雪等,持续的凝冻天气过程往往出现多种凝冻天气现象的交替,造成雨凇、雾凇、雨雾混合凇及雨雪混合冻结等多种类型的覆冰,从而导致严重的凝冻灾害。这也是2008年初贵州成为全国受灾最重地区的原因。     

2004年主汛期我国强对流天气灾害统计特征

运用全国各省、市、县气象部门直接上报国家气象局的气象灾害数据,对全国各地2004年主汛期(6-8月)对流性天气造成的灾害分布特征和人员死亡情况进行了统计分析,结果表明,主汛期内强对流天气在全国31个省市都有发生,其中黄淮、江淮、江南、西南地区东部为强对流天气灾害死亡人数多发区,且在主汛期内,以7月份强对流天气发生频次最高;在年度所有气象灾害中,除了暴雨洪涝灾害造成人员死亡最多外,雷击事件造成的死亡人数占气象灾害死亡人数的第二位;各大城市均遭遇到强对流天气袭击,造成了严重的交通瘫痪,城市应急响应系统建设亟待加强。     

2000年全球气象灾害评价

2000年,全球气候持续较常年偏暖。赤道中,东太平洋地区强拉尼娜事件在1月再次达到峰值后,迅速减弱,强拉尼娜事件对全球,特别是对热带地区产生了较大的影响,北半球许多地区冬季出现严寒天气,夏季又遭热浪袭击,严重的高温、干旱、森林大火困扰全球。而亚洲南部、西欧、南部非洲、南美北部的许多地区暴雨频繁。估计气象自然灾害造成全球经济损失达上千亿美元。数亿人口受灾。     

基于人工影响天气的气象灾害减灾技术

对全国人工影响天气的气象灾害减灾技术及人工增雨防雹成果进行了归纳总结。提出根据不同气象灾害的特点，采取有针对性的减灾技术措施，并对减灾效益进行评估。通过对近年来我国基于人工影响天气技术的人工增雨防雹等作业范围及其规模、主要作业技术及其与国外的差距、作业区的减灾效益等进行分析，指出我国人工影响天气减灾技术及应用体系有了很大发展，并为减轻气象灾害提供了科学依据。     

Coping and adaptation strategies and institutional perceptions of hydrological risk in an urban Amazonian city

This paper investigates coping and adaptation strategies and institutional perceptions of hydrological risk at the local scale in Santarém, an Amazonian city in the state of Pará, Brazil. Methods and tools of analysis encompassed secondary data, field observations, and qualitative techniques (focus-group discussions and in-depth interviews). Stakeholders from affected neighbourhoods describe their means of coping with and adapting to flooding, focusing on purposefulness, type of initiative and investment, risk timing, temporal and spatial scope, and performance. The results comprise an inventory of 16 mostly structural measures. The perceptions of six institutions of general responses to flooding are presented as opinions on actions that reduce the effects of such events, individual strategies and collective community endeavours in at-risk areas, and the activities of the public and private sectors to manage floods. Understanding of coping and adaptation strategies and knowledge of institutional flood risk perceptions can benefit the implementation of risk and disaster reduction policies and practices.     

对地观测技术在重大自然灾害监测与评估中的应用实例分析

对地观测技术可提供大范围、多时相、高分辨率的海量数据,用于自然灾害的监测与评估有其极大的优越性。本文叙述了对地观测技术在洪涝灾害、沙尘天气、森林火灾的监测与评估和地震形变场研究中的应用,并指出对地观测技术是建立数字减灾系统不可或缺的强大信息源。     

Study on Flood Disasters in China

The occurrence of a flood disaster is a reflection of both nature and society:natural condition of aflood disaster is the appearance of floodwater,which is requisite;while the social-economic causeas a sufficient condition lies in human activities.We can classify flood disasters into fourcategories according to their formation mechanism and regional characteristics:burst,overflow,flood catastrophe and deluge.China is a country of frequent flood disasters.From2 0 0 B.C.to1 949,there had occurr…     

1998年中国洪灾与减灾对策

分析了 1998年中国洪灾的原因 ,并提出了相应的防灾、减灾对策     

西藏公路水毁灾害

位于我国西南边陲、青藏高原西南部的西藏,由于特殊的地质地貌条件和气候影响,公路水毁灾害十分严重。本文就西藏公路水毁灾害的基本特点、类型、主要因素和发展趋势进行了剖析。     

Flood Disaster Reduction in China's Major Cereal Production Areas

1The Agricultural Resources and Yielding Status of the Major Cereal ProductionAreasNEC,RBHHH and ML RYR are the three major areas for agricultural and cereal production inChina and the national bases for growing commodity grain with first priority.Especially,theThree-River Plain and Songhuajiang-Nenjiang Plain in NEC,the alluvial plain of the Huanghe,Haihe and Huaihe rivers in RBHHH and the plain of two rivers (Hanshui and Huaihe) and threelakes (Poyang,Dongting and Taihu) in …     

泾河流域1644-2003年洪涝灾害和洪水沉积特征研究

通过对泾河流域1644-2003年洪涝灾害历史文献资料的搜集、整理和分析,对该时期泾河流域洪涝灾害等级、洪涝灾害时空变化特征及其成因进行研究。同时结合泾河下游洪水沉积剖面,对该时期洪水特征进行分析。研究表明:泾河流域1644-2003年发生洪涝灾害总计165次,平均每2.18年发生一次。主要以中度涝灾为主,其次为大涝灾,轻度涝灾和特大涝灾发生次数较少。1644-2003年,泾河流域的洪涝灾害总体呈现不断增加的特点,泾河流域洪涝灾害发生频次最高的是在1894-1953年,发生频次最低的是在1644-1723年。泾河流域发生的165次洪涝灾害中,上游发生的洪涝灾害最多,其次为下游,中游最少,上、中、下游同时发生的洪涝灾害为4级特大涝灾。不同阶段气候的冷暖干湿变化和人类活动对泾河流域植被的破坏是泾河流域发生洪涝灾害的主要原因。1644-2003年的洪涝灾害在泾河下游形成了2.56 m厚的河漫滩洪水沉积剖面,该剖面沉积层主要由特大涝灾、部分大涝灾和中度涝灾形成,剖面记录的洪水频次比历史文献记录的洪水频次要明显少。     

江苏省洪涝灾害评估系统设计

为了迅速、合理地预测和评估洪涝灾害造成的经济损失,为防汛决策提供科学依据,从江苏省洪涝灾害防治的实际需求出发,进行了江苏省洪涝灾情评估系统的总体设计,并阐明了系统的特点,结构和功能。     

Flash flood mitigation: recommendations for research and applications

Abstract

New technologies promise reduced flash flood losses. However, real-time observations with vast multi-sensor networks, more precise mapping capabilities using remote sensing and GIS, quicker hydrological and meteorological models, and increasing forecast lead times have not reduced losses. In November, 1999, 35 researchers from nine countries met in Ravello, Italy at a NATO sponsored Advanced Study Institute, to discuss these issues and to develop a research agenda that incorporates the various components required to cope with flash floods. The key recommendations from the Institute were: (1) greater emphasis on increasing understanding of the social processes involved in flash flood warning, particularly in the response phases, and (2) the need to reduce vulnerability in sustainable ways compatible with long-term economic and social goals. The relationship between hydrometeorology and social science is seen as critical to advancing our abilities to cope with flash floods.     

我国重大气候灾害特征、形成机理和预测研究

简要地介绍了我国气候灾害的种类、时空分布特征及其造成的经济损失；并从东亚气候系统海一陆- 气相互作用的观点，结合１９９８年夏季长江、松花江和嫩江流域特大洪涝发生的具体实例分析了我国气候灾害发生的主要原因；此外，还回顾了目前我国气候预测的实际情况。提出了关于气候灾害预测研究中急待解决的几个问题．     

中国洪涝灾害结构式与非结构式减灾措施耦合协调性研究

结构式与非结构式减灾措施是构成洪涝灾害防治体系的两个相互补充、相互促进的子系统,基于2008—2018年的面板数据,构建中国洪涝灾害结构式与非结构式减灾措施耦合协调度评价指标体系,引入耦合协调度模型测度中国洪涝灾害结构式与非结构式减灾措施建设水平以及两者间的耦合度和耦合协调度,以期进一步提升我国洪涝灾害防治体系的防灾减...     

洪灾对柳州可持续发展的影响及减灾对策

通过对柳州市洪灾特点的分析,探讨了洪灾对柳州市经济、社会可持续发展的制约作用,提出洪灾的治理必须走可发展的道路,采用工程措施和非工程措施相结合的对策。     

呼和浩特强对流天气的数值模拟分析

利用三维积云数值模式模拟了呼和浩特地区强对流天气的发展过程，并结合实时雷达回波资料进行了对比分析，指出模式输出的部分物理量与理论值、雷达回波或地面天气及降雹（水）实况符合得较好。从对模式输出的几个物理量的统计分析，得出利用三维积云数值模式预测强冰雹过程的概念模型。结果表明，三维积云数值模式能用于模拟对流云特别是强对流云的发展过程，可在人工影响天气业务工作中应用并不断发展。     

Fiji's worst natural disaster: the 1931 hurricane and flood

At least 225 people in the Fiji Islands died as a result of the 1931 hurricane and flood, representing the largest loss of life from a natural disaster in Fiji's recent history. This paper explores the causes of disaster and the potential for recurrence. The disaster occurred because a rare event surprised hundreds of people—especially recently settled Indian farmers—occupying highly exposed floodplains in north‐west Viti Levu island. The likelihood of a flood disaster of such proportions occurring today has been diminished by changed settlement patterns and building materials; however, a trend towards re‐occupancy of floodplains, sometimes in fragile dwellings, is exposing new generations to flood risks. The contribution of this paper to the global hazards literature is set out in three sections: the ethnicity, gender and age of flood fatalities; the naturalness of disasters; and the merit of choice and constraint as explanations for patterns of vulnerability.     

数字化天气预报与灾害天气预警自动合成系统——在黑龙江省的应用

在现有预报技术的基础上,提出了数字化天气预报技术,研究、建立了数字化天气预报系统,并突出了灾害性天气预报,概述了其接口标准和区域自动合成技术,介绍了系统的体系结构和数据流模型,并阐述了系统的功能结构。