A Robust Optimization Model for an Invasive Species Management Problem

Invasive species pose a significant threat to global biodiversity. Managing invasive species often involves modeling the species’ spread pattern, estimating control costs and damage costs due to the invasion, designing control efforts, and accounting for uncertainties in model parameters. Dealing with uncertainty is arguably the most important part of the process, since biological, environmental, and economic factors can cause parameter values to vary greatly. Managers need decision tools that are robust to such limited or variable information. Here, we present a robust spatial optimization model to select treatment sites in a way that maximally reduces the size of an invasive population, given a constraint on financial resources. We develop an integer programming model that includes population dynamics and management costs over space and time. The model incorporates uncertainty in the available budget and the invasive spread rate as sets of discrete scenarios to determine a robust, cost-effective management plan in a novel way.     

Design elements of monitoring programs: The necessary ingredients for success

Natural resource managers must know the condition of resources entrusted to their steward-ship so that they can maintain unimpaired resources and know when to restore impaired ecosystems. Resource monitoring programs should be designed to provide indications of ecosystem health, define limits of normal variation, identify abnormal conditions, and suggest potential agents of abnormal changes. Development of a conceptual model that identifies all ecosystem components and their relationships is the first step in the design of such a diagnostic monitoring program. Design studies, with field testing on each selected system component, are required to determine the parameters to be measured and to establish monitoring protocols. The best approach to diagnostic monitoring appears to be based on the population dynamics of selected species relative to physical and chemical environmental factors. Both management and monitoring of natural ecosystems need to be recognized as experimental endeavors, and thus approached in an iterative fashion with the scientific method to reduce uncertainty and cost.     

Application of a Life Cycle Simulation Model to Evaluate Impacts of Water Management and Conservation Actions on an Endangered Population of Chinook Salmon

Fisheries and water resource managers are challenged to maintain stable or increasing populations of Chinook salmon in the face of increasing demand on the water resources and habitats that salmon depend on to complete their life cycle. Alternative management plans are often selected using professional opinion or piecemeal observations in place of integrated quantitative information that could reduce uncertainty in the effects of management plans on population dynamics. We developed a stochastic life cycle simulation model for an endangered population of winter-run Chinook salmon in the Sacramento River, California, USA with the goal of providing managers a tool for more effective decision making and demonstrating the utility of life cycle models for resource management. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the input parameters that influenced variation in salmon escapement were dependent on which age class was examined and their interactions with other inputs (egg mortality, Delta survival, ocean survival). Certain parameters (river migration survival, harvest) that were hypothesized to be important drivers of population dynamics were not identified in sensitivity analysis; however, there was a large amount of uncertainty in the value of these inputs and their error distributions. Thus, the model also was useful in identifying future research directions. Simulation of variation in environmental inputs indicated that escapement was significantly influenced by a 10% change in temperature whereas larger changes in other inputs would be required to influence escapement. The model presented provides an effective demonstration of the utility of life cycle simulation models for decision making and provides fisheries and water managers in the Sacramento system with a quantitative tool to compare the impact of different resource use scenarios.     

What is the influence of FDI and international people flows on environment and growth in OECD countries? A panel study

Recent years have witnessed an international increase of capital and human flows, this being accelerated by globalization. Several studies show that this phenomenon positively influences growth whilst being detrimental for the environment. This article aims to shed a light on the relationship between environment, growth and international capitalism and human flows. By making use of yearly data in a panel constructed around 36 OECD countries over the timespan 2000–2017, we run Pooled Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects and Random Effects regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard error correction, as well as the Generalized Method of Moments and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares, to obtain both short and long-run relationship. The main results provide evidence supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in the short-run, while offering some variation in the long-run. The FDI bolster the economic growth by means of no green technologies. The international touristic demand just impacts on the growth, while the migration flows improve the environmental performance both in the short and long-run, implying that international human flows generate positive spill-over in terms of environmental behaviours and growth.     

Economic Impacts of Changes in Fish Population Dynamics: The Role of the Fishermen’s Harvesting Strategies

Using a bioeconomic model of the cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) fisheries of the Barents Sea, this study assesses the role of the fishermen’s behavior in reducing or intensifying the effects on the stocks caused by altered population dynamics. The analysis focuses on the economic development of the fisheries employing a coupled stock size–hydrography-based fishing strategy, which attempts to maximize returns from fishing over a given number of fishing periods. Results show that if the fishing strategy is based on a short optimization period of only two fishing periods, changes in population dynamics have a direct influence on the returns from fishing due to the strong pressure on the stocks applied by the fisheries. If the strategy is based on a longer optimization period, fishing activities may be deferred to allow for stock regrowth, which improves the economic performance of the fisheries. However, in that case, the relationship between population dynamics and fishing activities becomes less clear, as even a reduction of the carrying capacities of the two species allows for an increase in the amount of fish landed without causing a stock collapse due to an increased efficiency of fleet utilization. The simulations indicate that management considerations and the time horizon of the fishing strategy dominate the influence of altered population dynamics on the development of the stocks considered in the model.     

Utility of dynamics as indicators of stress in population models

The relationships between the dynamics of environmentally and chemically stressed populations and indicators of the effects of the stressor are explored in a model framework. The physiologically structured population, represented by a system of McKendrick–von Foerster hyperbolic partial differential equations, includes the dynamics of numerous individuals distinguished by ecotype. Chemical uptake of nonpolar narcotics is modeled by first order kinetics. Classical methodologies, frequency analysis and phase space reconstruction, are explored in a search for indicators of magnitude of stress. When these techniques proved generally unsuccessful for the objective of indicator selection in our model setting, summary statistics, as related to bifurcation diagrams, were constructed and appear more useful as indicators. It is concluded that physiological structures generally lead to more feasible measurable indicators of magnitude of stress than do specifics of population dynamics.     

Impact of Climate Change on Date Production in Tunisia

Around the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one of the major phenomena affecting agriculture. Therefore, the mode of production and crop management will have to change radically. Our objective in this article is to examine the long-run effects of climate change on date production in Tunisia using panel cointegration covering the period from 1980 to 2014 in 24 regions. The climate of Tunisia differs in our study because we find a Saharan climate in the south and a European climate in the north. The central regions are characterized by a Mediterranean climate. Our empirical results show that the effects of climate and weather variability on date production must be considered a serious threat in Tunisia. In addition, we estimate relatively negative and variable long-run effects of temperature increase and rainfall shortages across regions on date output over the last three decades.     

Emergy Analysis of Human Carrying Capacity and Regional Sustainability: an Example Using the State of Maine

The human carrying capacity for a region at a specified standard of living depends on the economic and environmental resources of the region and the exchange of resources across regional boundaries. The length of time that a human population living at a given standard can be sustained depends on the rates of use and renewal of the resource base. All environmental, economic, and social resources are produced as a result of energy transformations; therefore, the energy required for their production can be specified and evaluated in common terms by converting their energy values into emergy. Emergy is defined as the available energy of one kind, previously used up directly and indirectly to make a product or service. Its unit is the emjoule. Emergy values and indices are used to evaluate the resource base for Maine, a politically defined region, and to estimate its human carrying capacity at the 1980 standard of living and for possible future resource bases. Emergy indices for Maine are compared with similar indices for Florida, Texas, and the United States to demonstrate variations in human carrying capacity and sustainability among different regions. The 1980 standard of living for Maine, Florida, Texas, and the Nation as measured by emergy use per person fell within a relatively narrow range of 3.4E16 to 4.3E16 solar emjoules y-1. The human carrying capacity for a region is considered within a pulsing paradigm for sustainability and within the constraints provided by a renewable resource base. For example, in the short-term the developed human carrying capacity for Maine is largely determined by the fuel emergy inflow relative to renewable emergy resources. If purchased emergy inflows relative to Maine's renewable emergy increase to the average ratio for a developed country around 1980, the population living in Maine at 1980 standards could increase to 2.9 million or 2.6 times Maine's 1980 population. In contrast, the human carrying capacity based on Maine's renewable resources alone was 0.37 million people at the 1980 standard of living or 33% of the 1980 population.     

Analysis of the spatio-temporal and semantic aspects of land-cover/use change dynamics 1991–2001 in Albania at national and district levels

In the turmoil of a rapidly changing economy the Albanian government needs accurate and timely information for management of their natural resources and formulation of land-use policies. The transformation of the forestry sector has required major changes in the legal, regulatory and management framework. The World Bank financed Albanian National Forest Inventory project provides an analysis of spatially explicit land-cover/use change dynamics in the period 1991–2001 using the FAO/UNEP Land Cover Classification System for codification of classes, satellite remote sensing and field survey for data collection and elements of the object-oriented geo-database approach to handle changes as an evolution of land-cover/use objects, i.e. polygons, over time to facilitate change dynamics analysis.Analysis results at national level show the trend of natural resources depletion in the form of modifications and conversions that lead to a gradual shift from land-cover/use types with a tree cover to less dense tree covers or even a complete removal of trees. Policy failure (e.g., corruption, lack of law enforcement) is seen as the underlying cause. Another major trend is urbanisation of areas near large urban centres that change urban-rural linkages. Furthermore, after privatisation agricultural areas increased in the hills where environmental effects may be detrimental, while prime agricultural land in the plains is lost to urbanisation.At district level, the local variability of spatially explicit land-cover/use changes shows different types of natural resources depletion. The distribution of changes indicates a regional prevalence, thus a decentralised approach to the natural resources management could be advocated.     

A moving target—incorporating knowledge of the spatial ecology of fish into the assessment and management of freshwater fish populations

Freshwater fish move vertically and horizontally through the aquatic landscape for a variety of reasons, such as to find and exploit patchy resources or to locate essential habitats (e.g., for spawning). Inherent challenges exist with the assessment of fish populations because they are moving targets. We submit that quantifying and describing the spatial ecology of fish and their habitat is an important component of freshwater fishery assessment and management. With a growing number of tools available for studying the spatial ecology of fishes (e.g., telemetry, population genetics, hydroacoustics, otolith microchemistry, stable isotope analysis), new knowledge can now be generated and incorporated into biological assessment and fishery management. For example, knowing when, where, and how to deploy assessment gears is essential to inform, refine, or calibrate assessment protocols. Such information is also useful for quantifying or avoiding bycatch of imperiled species. Knowledge of habitat connectivity and usage can identify critically important migration corridors and habitats and can be used to improve our understanding of variables that influence spatial structuring of fish populations. Similarly, demographic processes are partly driven by the behavior of fish and mediated by environmental drivers. Information on these processes is critical to the development and application of realistic population dynamics models. Collectively, biological assessment, when informed by knowledge of spatial ecology, can provide managers with the ability to understand how and when fish and their habitats may be exposed to different threats. Naturally, this knowledge helps to better evaluate or develop strategies to protect the long-term viability of fishery production. Failure to understand the spatial ecology of fishes and to incorporate spatiotemporal data can bias population assessments and forecasts and potentially lead to ineffective or counterproductive management actions.     

Impacts of water resources development on flow regimes in the Brazos River

The Brazos River, the second largest basin in Texas, represents one of the most highly developed river systems in the state. Thirty-nine reservoirs with capacities greater than 5,000 acre-feet are currently in operation in the basin. Impacts on stream ecosystems are evidenced by changes in flow regimes and resulting changes in fish assemblages over the past 50 years. These changes have been widely attributed to human impacts, through the construction of dams, diversion of water supplies for agricultural and municipal uses, and land use change. However, streamflow regimes result from a complex mix of drivers that include climate, topography, land cover, land use practices, reservoir management practices, dam releases, and water consumption patterns, making determination of anthropogenic impacts problematic. This study quantifies changes in flow regime and probable historical drivers including precipitation, dam construction, population growth, and changing water demand in the Brazos River basin over the past 100 years. Results indicate that the climate of the basin has been relatively stable over the study period, while large-scale changes in human population densities and intense water resources development are correlated with impacts on flow regimes, decreasing the frequency and magnitude of high flow events and stabilizing low flows. These changes have resulted in an increase of habitat generalist fish species, a decrease of native obligate riverine fishes, and an overall homogenization of species assemblages. The results of this study indicate the importance of combining ecological data with an assessment of social drivers for a greater understanding of the dynamics of river basin systems.     

Renewable Resources and Waste Recycling

In this paper we consider an endogenous growth model involving, among other inputs, a renewable resource and secondary materials. Using this analytical framework we explain the effects of waste recycling on the growth rate of the economy, that we take into account. The effects of secondary materials production on the utility and dynamics of renewable resources are also studied. Furthermore, we consider how taxes and subsidies, levied on natural resources and granted for secondary materials, influence the dynamics of the economy during the transitional phase and the stationary growth path. Finally, the validity of Hotelling’s rule and the effects of waste recycling on labor productivity are the conclusive topics of our research.     

Does Globalisation Worsen Environmental Quality in Developed Economies?

We examine the causal relationship between globalisation and CO₂ emissions for 25 developed economies in Asia, North America, Western Europe and Oceania using both time series and panel data techniques, spanning the annual data period of 1970–2014. Because of the presence of cross-sectional dependence in the panel, we employ Pesaran’s Journal of Applied Econometrics 22, 265–312 (2007) cross-sectional augmented panel unit root (CIPS) test to ascertain unit root properties. The Westerlund Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69, 709–748 (2007) cointegration test is also used to ascertain the presence of a long-run association between globalisation and carbon emissions. The long-run heterogeneous panel elasticities are estimated using the Pesaran Econometrica, 74(4), 967–1012 (2006) common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) estimator and the Eberhardt and Teal Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production (2010) augmented mean group (AMG) estimator. The causality between the variables is examined by employing the Dumitrescu and Hurlin Economic Modelling, 29, 1450–1460 (2012) and Emirmahmutoglu and Kose Economic Modelling, 28, 870–876 (2011) Granger causality tests. The empirical results reveal that globalisation increases carbon emissions, and thus, the globalisation-driven carbon emission hypothesis is valid. This empirical analysis suggests insightful policy guidelines for policy makers using ‘globalisation’ as an economic tool for better long-run environmental policy.     

The impact of terrorism and FDI on environmental pollution: Evidence from Afghanistan,Iraq, Nigeria,Pakistan, Philippines,Syria, Somalia,Thailand and Yemen

In this study, the relationships among environmental pollution, terrorism, foreign direct investments (FDI), energy consumption and economic growth is investigated for Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Syria, Somalia, Thailand and Yemen covering the 1975–2017 period utilizing Panel cointegration tests, ANOVA tests, long-run estimators and panel trivariate Causality tests. ANOVA results are in favor of evidence of homogeneity between the selected countries. Long-run estimators reveal that terrorism, FDI, energy consumption and economic growth have statistically significant effects on environmental pollution. Panel trivariate Causality test determines the causal relationship between the variables. Accordingly, one-way causal nexus from terrorism to Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and from FDI inflows to CO₂ emissions are found in the short-run. In the long-run, with strong causality results, the evidence of bi-directional causality between CO₂ emissions and other variables, namely, terrorism, FDI inflow energy consumption and economic growth are detected.     

Population dynamics model of interacting copepod species coupled with a 1‐D model of phytoplankton dynamics in the Greenland Sea Gyre

The population dynamics of two copepods Calanus hyperboreus and Oithona similis are simulated simultaneously in a 1‐D model of phytoplankton and nutrient in the centre of the Greenland Sea Gyre. The copepod model describes the development of cohorts in terms of numbers and biomasses over the year. Effects of competition for food and interactions (predation) between species have been studied. Due to the short period of phytoplankton bloom and the slow growth of large copepods, small but fast growing copepods can play a key role in the ecosystem dynamics: they consume the phytoplankton when the bloom occurs, recycle matter in the upper layer, and serve as preys for larger species.     

Renewable Resources and Waste Recycling

In this paper we consider an endogenous growth model involving, among other inputs, a renewable resource and secondary materials. Using this analytical framework we explain the effects of waste recycling on the growth rate of the economy, that we take into account. The effects of secondary materials production on the utility and dynamics of renewable resources are also studied. Furthermore, we consider how taxes and subsidies, levied on natural resources and granted for secondary materials, influence the dynamics of the economy during the transitional phase and the stationary growth path. Finally, the validity of Hotellings rule and the effects of waste recycling on labor productivity are the conclusive topics of our research.     

Community Production Practices and Desertification in the Sahelo-Sudanian Region of Cameroon at the Turn of the Millennium

The Sahelo-Sudanian region of Cameroon extends over 10 million hectares. Varied flora and soil types, a complex mosaic of vegetation and plant communities and a diversified wild animal population are the major natural resources of this region. Desertification in the region can be related to two major known causes: a. short or long-term drought due to short-term or long-term climatic trends toward aridity; b. human activities which degrade the biological environment. Globally, humans generally have less effect on desertification than climatic change in the short run. The only strategy to fight against this situation particularly in the developing countries is to withdraw populations from the areas and to settle them elsewhere. However, most local or regional desertification processes in general, and in the Sahelo-Sudanian region in particular, are due to the misuse or unsound exploitation of natural resources by humans and their animals. Often, comprehension of the complexity of even small interactions between parameters affecting our local environment remains limited. Poor economic assessments of the long-term benefits of proper natural resource conservation and management increase the extent of the exploitation, in turn increasing the degradation process. Yet ecologically sound management of natural resources integrating indigenous knowledge and basic population interest and concern can secure restoration in several areas and sustained productivity of Sahelo-Sudanian lands.     

Design and model based inferences with applications to acidification of lakes in eastern Canada

The design and model based approaches for making inferences about the number of lakes affected by acidic deposition and the chemical characteristics of aquatic resources at risk are described. In many instances when the lakes in the sample are selected for convenience without any randomization, the model based approach continues to provide valid inferences about the population of lakes. The performances of the two approaches are compared using a small population of 177 lakes which are located in southern Quebec. Examples from the Canadian acid rain monitoring program in the Atlantic provinces are also given.     

Management of invasive populations of the freshwater crayfish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Procambarus clarkii</Emphasis> (Decapoda,Cambaridae): test of a population-control method and proposal of a standard monitoring approach

Invasive species are one of the main threats to biodiversity. When an alien species is introduced into a new environment, fast identification and definition of management strategies may avoid or minimize impacts. When an invasive species is already established, the most adopted approaches are population control and monitoring. In order to perform such strategies, assessment of characteristics of the invasive population is imperative. This study tested a new method of population size estimation and monitoring in an invasive population of crayfish Procambarus clarkii in a conservation area in the Atlantic Rain Forest (Southeastern Brazil). The population dynamics was studied for 1 year to examine the efficacy of the selected method and to evaluate if the population is stable. Later, the effect of periodical removal of animals on the population size was tested. The method of population estimation used in this study proved to be very effective. We recommend using it to monitor invasive populations of P. clarkii. The population size varied discretely over the year with variable but low growth rate, indicating that the population is already established which introduce a notable threat to native species. The continuous removal of specimens proved to be inefficient since the growth rate was higher after the removal. One intensive removal event might be more effective than a continuous moderate removal as the one applied in this study.     

Evaluating Habitat as a Surrogate for Population Viability Using a Spatially Explicit Population Model

Because data for conservation planning are always limited, surrogates are often substituted for intractable measurements such as species richness or population viability. We examined the ability of habitat quality to act as a surrogate for population performance for both Red-shouldered Hawks (Buteo lineatus) and Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis). We compared simple measures of habitat quality to estimates of population growth rates obtained from a spatially explicit model of population dynamics. We found that habitat quality was a relatively poor predictor of simulated population growth rates for several reasons. First, a relatively small proportion of the potential habitat for each species served as population sources in our simulations--15% for Red-shouldered Hawks and 2% for Goshawks. Second, when habitat quality correctly predicted demographic sources on the landscape, it consistently underestimated the contribution of these areas to the population. In areas where habitat quality correctly anticipated the presence of demographic sinks, we found no useful quantitative relationship between the two measures. Our simulation model captured the influence of habitat quality on the hawk populations, but it also incorporated interactions between dispersing individuals and landscape patterns. Thus, the discrepancies we observed likely reflected the influence of forest fragmentation and the spatial arrangement of forest patches on the populations. We conclude that simple measures of habitat quality will often be poor surrogates for population persistence, but that spatially explicit population models can help inform the development of better indices.