Community and farm forestry climate mitigation projects: case studies from Uttaranchal,India

The methodologies for forest mitigation projects still present challenges to project developers for fulfillment of criteria within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or other such mechanisms for the purpose of earning carbon credits. This paper systematically approaches the process of establishing carbon (C) stocks for baseline (BSL) and mitigation scenario (MSL) for two case studies i.e., community and farm forestry projects in Uttaranchal, India. The analysis of various interventions shows that both projects present high carbon mitigation potential. However, the C reversibility risk is lower in long-rotation pine and mixed species plantation on community lands. The project is financially viable though not highly lucrative but the carbon mitigation potential in this ‘restoration of degraded lands’ type of project is immense provided challenges in the initial phase are adequately overcome. C revenue is an essential driver for investors in community projects. The short-rotation timber species such as Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus), Poplar (Populus) have high internal rates of return (IRR) and high carbon benefit reversibility potential due to fluctuations in market prices of commodities produced. The land holdings are small and bundling is desired for projects to achieve economies of scale. The methodological concerns such as sampling intensities, monitoring methodologies, sharing of benefits with communities and bundling arrangements for projects need further research to make these projects viable.     

Analysis of leakage in carbon sequestration projects in forestry: a case study of upper magat watershed,Philippines

The role of forestry projects in carbon conservation and sequestration is receiving much attention because of their role in the mitigation of climate change. The main objective of the study is to analyze the potential of the Upper Magat Watershed for a carbon sequestration project. The three main development components of the project are forest conservation: tree plantations, and agroforestry farm development. At Year 30, the watershed can attain a net carbon benefit of 19.5 M tC at a cost of US$ 34.5 M. The potential leakage of the project is estimated using historical experience in technology adoption in watershed areas in the Philippines and a high adoption rate. Two leakage scenarios were used: baseline and project leakage scenarios. Most of the leakage occurs in the first 10 years of the project as displacement of livelihood occurs during this time. The carbon lost via leakage is estimated to be 3.7 M tC in the historical adoption scenario, and 8.1 M tC under the enhanced adoption scenario.     

Development of regional climate mitigation baseline for a dominant agro-ecological zone of Karnataka,India

Setting a baseline for carbon stock changes in forest and land use sector mitigation projects is an essential step for assessing additionality of the project. There are two approaches for setting baselines namely, project-specific and regional baseline. This paper presents the methodology adopted for estimating the land available for mitigation, for developing a regional baseline, transaction cost involved and a comparison of project-specific and regional baseline. The study showed that it is possible to estimate the potential land and its suitability for afforestation and reforestation mitigation projects, using existing maps and data, in the dry zone of Karnataka, southern India. The study adopted a three-step approach for developing a regional baseline, namely: (i) identification of likely baseline options for land use, (ii) estimation of baseline rates of land-use change, and (iii) quantification of baseline carbon profile over time. The analysis showed that carbon stock estimates made for wastelands and fallow lands for project-specific as well as the regional baseline are comparable. The ratio of wasteland Carbon stocks of a project to regional baseline is 1.02, and that of fallow lands in the project to regional baseline is 0.97. The cost of conducting field studies for determination of regional baseline is about a quarter of the cost of developing a project-specific baseline on a per hectare basis. The study has shown the reliability, feasibility and cost-effectiveness of adopting regional baseline for forestry sector mitigation projects.

Assessment of carbon leakage in multiple carbon-sink projects: a case study in Jambi Province,Indonesia

Rehabilitation of degraded forest land through implementation of carbon-sink projects can increase terrestrial carbon (C) stock. However, carbon emissions outside the project boundary, which is commonly referred to as leakage, may reduce or negate the sequestration benefits. This study assessed leakage from carbon-sink projects that could potentially be implemented in the study area comprised of 11 sub-districts in the Batanghari District, Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. The study estimates the probability of a given land use/cover being converted into other uses/cover, by applying a logit model. The predictor variables were: proximity to the center of the land use area, distance to transportation channel (road or river), area of agricultural land, unemployment (number of job seekers), job opportunities, population density and income. Leakage was estimated by analyzing with and without carbon-sink projects scenarios. Most of the predictors were estimated as being significant in their contribution to land use cover change. The results of the analysis show that leakage in the study area can be large enough to more than offset the project’s carbon sequestration benefits during the period 2002–2012. However, leakage results are very sensitive to changes of carbon density of the land uses in the study area. By reducing C-density of lowland and hill forest by about 10% for the baseline scenario, the leakage becomes positive. Further data collection and refinement is therefore required. Nevertheless, this study has demonstrated that regional analysis is a useful approach to assess leakage.     

Issues in developing a capacity for integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation

As policymakers and stakeholders increasingly consider relative merits and complementarities of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is important to improve analytical capacities to support this process. Because a single analytical approach is unlikely to fit all needs, this paper explores potentials for an integrated analytical framework that incorporates both top–down and bottom–up approaches.     

Carbon reduction potential and cost evaluation of different mitigation approaches in China's coal to olefin Industry

Coal-based olefin (CTO) industry as a complement of traditional petrochemical industry plays vital role in China's national economic development. However, high CO₂ emission in CTO industry is one of the fatal problems to hinder its development. In this work, the carbon emission and mitigation potentials by different reduction pathways are evaluated. The economic cost is analyzed and compared as well. According to the industry development plan, the carbon emissions from China's CTO industry will attain 189.43 million ton CO₂ (MtCO₂) and 314.11 MtCO₂ in 2020 and 2030, respectively. With the advanced technology level, the maximal carbon mitigation potential could be attained to 15.3% and 21.9% in 2020 and 2030. If the other optional mitigation ways are combined together, the carbon emission could further reduce to some extent. In general, the order of mitigation potential is followed as: feedstock alteration by natural gas > CO₂ hydrogenation with renewable electricity applied > CCS technology. The mitigation cost analysis indicates that on the basis of 2015 situation, the economic penalty for feedstock alteration is the lowest, ranged between 186 and 451 CNY/tCO₂, and the cost from CCS technology is ranged between 404 and 562 CNY/tCO₂, which is acceptable if the CO₂ enhanced oil recovery and carbon tax are considered. However, for the CO₂ hydrogenation technology, the cost is extremely high and there is almost no application possibility at present.     

Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture: an analysis of potential synergies

As climate changes due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, agriculture will be one of the key human activities affected. Projections show that while overall global food production in the coming decades may keep pace with the food requirements of a growing world population, climate change might worsen existing regional disparities because it will reduce crop yields mostly in lands located at lower latitudes where many developing countries are situated. Strategies to enhance local adaptation capacity are therefore needed to minimize climatic impacts and to maintain regional stability of food production. At the same time, agriculture as a sector offers several opportunities to mitigate the portion of global greenhouse gas emissions that are directly dependent upon land use, land-use change, and land-management techniques. This paper reviews issues of agriculture and climate change, with special attention to adaptation and mitigation. Specifically, as adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture are implemented to alleviate the potential negative effects of climate change, key synergies need to be identified, as mitigation practices may compete with modifications to local agricultural practices aimed at maintaining production and income. Under future climate and socio-economic pressures, land managers and farmers will be faced with challenges in regard to selecting those mitigation and adaptation strategies that together meet food, fiber and climate policy requirements.     

The relationship between adaptation and mitigation in managing climate change risks: a regional response from North Central Victoria,Australia

This two-part paper considers the complementarity between adaptation and mitigation in managing the risks associated with the enhanced greenhouse effect. Part one reviews the application of risk management methods to climate change assessments. Formal investigations of the enhanced greenhouse effect have produced three generations of risk assessment. The first led to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), First Assessment Report and subsequent drafting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The second investigated the impacts of unmitigated climate change in the Second and Third IPCC Assessment Reports. The third generation, currently underway, is investigating how risk management options can be prioritised and implemented. Mitigation and adaptation have two main areas of complementarity. Firstly, they each manage different components of future climate-related risk. Mitigation reduces the number and magnitude of potential climate hazards, reducing the most severe changes first. Adaptation increases the ability to cope with climate hazards by reducing system sensitivity or by reducing the consequent level of harm. Secondly, they manage risks at different extremes of the potential range of future climate change. Adaptation works best with changes of lesser magnitude at the lower end of the potential range. Where there is sufficient adaptive capacity, adaptation improves the ability of a system to cope with increasingly larger changes over time. By moving from uncontrolled emissions towards stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mitigation limits the upper part of the range. Different activities have various blends of adaptive and mitigative capacity. In some cases, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity may lead to large residual climate risks; in other cases, a large adaptive capacity may mean that residual risks are small or non-existent. Mitigative and adaptive capacity do not share the same scale: adaptive capacity is expressed locally, whereas mitigative capacity is different for each activity and location but needs to be aggregated at the global scale to properly assess its potential benefits in reducing climate hazards. This can be seen as a demand for mitigation, which can be exercised at the local scale through exercising mitigative capacity. Part two of the paper deals with the situation where regional bodies aim to maximise the benefits of managing climate risks by integrating adaptation and mitigation measures at their various scales of operation. In north central Victoria, Australia, adaptation and mitigation are being jointly managed by a greenhouse consortium and a catchment management authority. Several related studies investigating large-scale revegetation are used to show how climate change impacts and sequestration measures affect soil, salt and carbon fluxes in the landscape. These studies show that trade-offs between these interactions will have to be carefully managed to maximise their relative benefits. The paper concludes that when managing climate change risks, there are many instances where adaptation and mitigation can be integrated at the operational level. However, significant gaps between our understanding of the benefits of adaptation and mitigation between local and global scales remain. Some of these may be addressed by matching demands for mitigation (for activities and locations where adaptive capacity will be exceeded) with the ability to supply that demand through localised mitigative capacity by means of globally integrated mechanisms.     

建设项目环境影响评价中温室气体排放核算方法—以火电项目为例

对现行温室气体排放核算方法标准和指南进行了系统梳理,分析了现行核算方法的差异,提出了其纳入环境影响评价制度存在的问题,并以火电行业为例,提出了火电建设项目环境影响评价中碳排放核算边界、计算方法和核算参数的选取原则。结果表明：现行温室气体排放核算方法在核算边界、核算范围、核算因子和计算方法上均有一定差异。现行核算方法不能直接适用于建设项目环境影响评价工作,存在无法准确获取核算参数、核算边界不符合环评要求、各指南间推荐参数不一等问题。对于火电行业,从纳入考虑的碳排放源来看,化石燃料燃烧排放占比为93.5%~99.8%,开展环境影响评价时可重点考虑发电机组燃料燃烧排放,忽略其他过程排放;在计算方法上,基于元素碳含量核算二氧化碳结果较为准确,误差不超过10%,基于低位发热量核算误差达18%~30%,开展环境影响评价时建议基于元素碳含量开展核算,燃煤电厂的燃料消耗量建议选用环境影响评价阶段预估值,元素碳含量建议选用环境影响评价阶段设计煤样实测值,避免使用低位发热量和单位热值含碳量的缺省值,碳氧化率建议直接选取缺省值。

     

On the value of temporary carbon: a comment on Kirschbaum

A recent paper by Miko Kirschbaum (Mitigat Adapt Strategies Glob Change 11(5–6):1151–1164, 2006) argues that temporary carbon (C) storage has “virtually no climate-change mitigation value.” However, temporary carbon has value in delaying global warming that needs to be recognized in carbon accounting methodologies. The conclusions reached are very sensitive to any value that is attached to time. Basing analysis exclusively on the maximum temperature reached within a 100-year time frame ignores other important impacts of global warming that also need to be included when mitigation strategies are assessed. The relative weightings for long-term versus short-term impacts represent policy choices that result in a greater or a lesser value being attributed to temporary carbon, but that value should not be zero. Global warming is too formidable an enemy to allow us the luxury of discarding part of our arsenal in fighting against it. Both reducing fossil-fuel combustion and increasing biosphere carbon stocks are needed.     

Water pricing towards sustainability of water resources: a case study in Beijing

The role of water pricing for managing water resources is widely recognized in many areas of the world because of the increasing scarcity of water resources, a high competition between water uses and environmental degradation. Based on the analysis of cost of water, this paper explores which types of cost should be reflected in the water pricing enhancing the sustainability of water resources. The principle of full cost pricing in which the cost should include supply cost, opportunity cost and externalities is proposed as a means to achieve the sustainability of water resources. In a case study of Beijing, low water price is analyzed as one reason for unsustainable water consumption. Thus water pricing justified is necessary and pressing. It is proposed to justify water price in phased manner and eventually towards full cost pricing. The assessment of impacts on water resources by raising water price shows water pricing could alleviate the conflict between water supply and demand. This paper concludes that water pricing can play an effective role in enhancing the sustainability of water resources in Beijing.     

Temporary storage of carbon in the biosphere does have value for climate change mitigation: a response to the paper by Miko Kirschbaum

Kirschbaum (Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 11:1151–1164, 2006) explores the climatic impact over time of temporarily sequestering carbon from the atmosphere. He concludes that temporary storage of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere “achieves effectively no climate-change mitigation”. His strongly worded statement begs for a response. This paper argues that Kirschbaum’s conclusion is an artifact of the specific perspective of his analysis and his choice of a definition for climate-change impact. Even temporary sinks put us on a lower path for climate change, a path that will not otherwise be accessible. For carbon sinks in the terrestrial biosphere, we argue that sooner is better and longer is better, but even known temporary sinks have value.

Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions.     

Forest ecosystem development in post-mining landscapes: a case study of the Lusatian lignite district

The restoration of surface mining landscapes requires the (re)creation of ecosystems. In Lusatia (eastern Germany), large-scale open-cast lignite mining operations generated spoil dumps widely consisting of acidified, phytotoxic substrates. Amelioration and rehabilitation measures have been developed and applied to these substrates since the 1950s. However, it is still not clear whether these approaches are sustainable. This paper reports on collaborative research work into the ecological potential of forest ecosystem development on typical minesites in the Lusatian lignite district. At first sight, pine stands on minesites along a chronosequence comprising about 35 years did not show differences when compared with stands on non-mined sites of the general region. Furthermore, with some modification, conceptual models for flora and fauna succession in forest stands on non-mined sites seem to be applicable, at least for the early stages of forest ecosystem development. For example, soil organism abundance and activity at minesites had already reached levels typical of non-mined sites after about 20-30 years. In contrast, mine soils are very different from non-mined soils of the test region. Chemically, mine soil development is dominated by processes originating from pyrite oxidation. Geogenic, i.e. lignitic, soil organic carbon was shown to substitute for some functions of pedogenic soil organic matter. Rooting was hampered but not completely impeded in strongly acidified soil compartments. Roots and mycorrhizae are apparently able to make use of the characteristic heterogeneity of young mine soils. Considering these recent results and the knowledge accumulated during more than 30 years of research on minesite rehabilitation internationally, it can be stated that minesite restoration might be used as an ideal case study for forest ecosystem development starting at "point zero" on "terra nova".     

Issues and challenges for forest-based carbon-offset projects: A case study of the Noel Kempff climate action project in Bolivia

The Noel Kempff Climate Action Project in Bolivia, nowin its third year, is breaking ground to establishcredible and verifiable methods to quantify greenhousegas (GHG) benefits of land-use change and forestry (LUCF)projects. Developed under the United Nations FrameworkConvention Climate Change (FCCC) Activities ImplementedJointly pilot phase, the project conserves naturalforests that would otherwise have been subjected tocontinued logging and future agricultural conversion.Carbon (C) monitoring began with a C inventory of theproject area in 1997. The total amount of C in theproject area was 118 Tg (Tg = 10¹²g) ± 4%(95% confidence interval). Periodic monitoring ofrelevant C pools (occurring in 1999 and every 5 yrthereafter) occurs over the 30-year life of theproject to establish the difference between thewith-project and projected without-project scenarios. Permanent sample plots were established both insidethe project area to monitor changes in C pools overtime and in a proxy logging concession near theproject area to determine changes in C pools inforests that have been impacted by logging. Ground-based monitoring is complemented by datacollection on forest industry trends and land-usechange patterns. Remote sensing was used to developa vegetation stratification map of the area, and workis ongoing to investigate the potential application ofdual-camera aerial videography to improve theefficiency of monitoring over time.     

基于面积-高程积分的地下水动态分析——以泾惠渠灌区为例

为了研究泾惠渠灌区的地下水动态特征,探讨面积-高程积分在地下水动态分析中的可行性,利用ArcGIS空间分析工具计算了灌区地下水面积-高程积分数据,绘制了不同时期的地下水面积-高程积分曲线,分析了灌区地下水水位与储存量动态特征。结果显示:1978?—?2012年,泾惠渠灌区地下水面积-高程积分值为0.46、0.44、0.38、0.39,表明地下水水位与储存量整体呈下降趋势;1991?—?2012年,410.00?—?446.19 m水位区间面积由1978年的2.54下降为0,342.51?—?360.00 m水位区间面积多年持续增加,中等水位区间存在演化差异性,反映出不同时期地下水开发强度具有空间变异性;以1978年为基准,至2012年地下水储存量减少约7.08×10~8 m~3;降水、地表水引水量、人工开采是影响泾惠渠灌区地下水动态的重要因素,补排失衡是引起灌区地下水储存量下降的主要原因。研究表明:面积-高程积分曲线可以表征地下水水位空间结构特征和储存量的变化情况,利用面积-高程积分值能够近似估算地下水储存量变化量,证明了面积-高程积分在地下水动态研究中具有一定的实用性。     

从黑龙江省水稻种植面积的时空变化看人类对气候变化影响的适应

1951年以来 ,黑龙江省呈明显的变暖趋势 ,1980年代以来增温尤其明显 ,是全国变暖最显著的地区。对比发现 ,全省水稻种植面积增减的阶段性变化与温度变化阶段之间存在着良好的对应关系 ,但水稻种植面积变化略滞后于温度变化。1980年代中期以来全省水稻种植面积的显著增加 ,特别是北部地区种植面积的显著增加 ,是对1980年代以来显著增温的响应     

Application of Ecological Footprint Analysis on nectarine production: methodological issues and results from a case study in Italy

Ecological Footprint Analysis (EFA) is an environmental accounting system that provides an aggregate indicator which is both scientifically robust and easy to understand by non-experts. Although based on the lifestyle consumption of natural resources, recent improvements in the methodology now allow the application of EFA to a final product. Thus the resulting footprint value represents the environmental cost of all of the activities required to create, use and/or dispose of a particular product. The application of EFA to agricultural systems is still uncommon and examples in the fruit sector rare. In this work a detailed application of EFA to a commercial nectarine orchard in Piedmont (Italy) is presented. In contrast to previous studies, we considered not only the one-year field operations, but also the whole lifetime of the orchard. The calculation was conducted for six different orchard stages: (ST1) nursery propagation of the young plants; (ST2) orchard establishment, (ST3) young trees producing low yields, (ST4) mature trees at full production, (ST5) declining trees with low yields, and finally (ST6) orchard removal. The environmental costs at each stage are presented and related to each other on the basis of the relative footprint value. Results highlight the importance of applying EFA to the entire lifecycle of orchard production: ST4 accounted for the majority of costs at 65% followed by ST2, ST3 and ST5 at or near 10%, whilst the costs of ST1 and ST6 were negotiable. Thus it is the type of ST4 production used which can have the greatest impact on EFA values.     

Application of real option analysis for planning under climate change uncertainty: a case study for evaluation of flood mitigation plans in Korea

With concerns regarding global climate change increasing, recent studies on adapting to nonstationary climate change recommended a different planning strategy that could spread risks. Uncertainty in global climate change should be considered in any decision-making processes for flood mitigation strategies, especially in areas within a monsoon climate regime. This study applied a novel planning method called real option analysis (ROA) to an important water resources planning practice in Korea. The proposed method can easily be applied to other watersheds that are threatened by flood risk under climate change. ROA offers flexibility for decision-makers to reflect uncertainty at every stage during the project planning period. We successfully implemented ROA using a binomial tree model, including two real options—delay and abandon—to evaluate flood mitigation alternatives for the Yeongsan River Basin in Korea. The priority ranking of the four alternatives between the traditional discount cash flow (DCF) and ROA remained the same; however, two alternatives that were assessed as economically infeasible using DCF, were economically feasible using ROA. The binomial decision trees generated in this study are expected to be informative for decision-makers to conceptualize their adaptive planning procedure.     

Fishery livelihoods and adaptation to climate change: a case study of Chilika lagoon, India

Climate change combined with human activities poses significant risks to people’s livelihood especially in developing countries. Adaptation at the community level is of crucial importance in enabling them to respond to the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate. In a case study of fishing communities in Chilika lagoon, India, the focus is made on understanding climate change adaptation at the community level and scaling it up into the policy perspective through application of Sustainable Livelihood Approach. This article challenges the research and policy community to encourage the identification of locally negative constraints and positive strengths toward climate resilient communities in rural areas.