Agreement between predicted risk and prevalence of Down syndrome in first trimester nuchal translucency screening

The agreement between predicted risks of Down syndrome and observed prevalence was investigated in a population of 11 847 singleton pregnancies screened by first trimester nuchal translucency at a single institution. Twenty-seven cases of Down syndrome were observed; 20 were detected prenatally by nuchal translucency and maternal age screening, three by other means and four postnatally. The screened women were grouped according to their predicted risk of having an affected pregnancy, and this was compared with the observed prevalence. A significant correlation between predicted and observed prevalences was noted, thus demonstrating that risk estimates for Down syndrome based on first trimester nuchal translucency screening are accurate. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inaccurate estimation of risk in second trimester serum screening for Down syndrome among women who have already had first trimester screening

Problems can arise in prenatal screening for Down syndrome when tests are performed in the first and second trimester and some women who have a negative first trimester test have a second trimester serum test. The second test result does not usually take account of the previous one being negative. Even if it does, it is often inaccurate. Using published data the extent of the error was examined. The age-specific risk of an affected pregnancy in such women will be lower than if no first trimester test had been performed. The distributions of the screening markers in affected and unaffected pregnancies will be different from those in unscreened women. If the appropriate age-specific risk and marker distributions are not used, error will arise. For example, a 35-year-old woman with nuchal translucency (NT), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels at the normal median would have a risk of 1 in 6500. If she then had the Triple Test with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol, and hCG levels of 0.7, 0.7 and 1.5 multiples of the median (MoM), respectively, her risk, ignoring the previous result, would be overestimated (1 in 95 compared with the correct estimate of 1 in 705). If the previous result was included, but the age-specific risk and second trimester marker distributions were not revised, her risk would be underestimated (1 in 820). If the correct age-specific risk and screening marker distributions were used, risk estimates would be accurate, but two tests would be less efficient than integrating all the screening information into a single test. The practice of offering second trimester serum screening to women who have already been screened is best avoided. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining nuchal translucency and serum markers in prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies

A method is described to combine the ultrasound marker nuchal translucency (NT) with serum markers so that they can be used together in prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies. For monochorionic twin pregnancies (taken as monozygous), the two fetus-specific NT measurements are averaged before risk is calculated and before the contribution of the serum markers is incorporated. For dichorionic twin pregnancies (taken as dizygous), the risk for each fetus based on the individual NT measurements is calculated, the two fetus-specific risks are added together, and then the contribution of the serum markers is incorporated. In this way, all the screening markers can be used in combination to produce a pregnancy-specific ‘pseudo-risk’, rather than a fetus-specific pseudo-risk. We refer to pseudo-risk because in the absence of sufficient data on the screening markers in affected twin pregnancies, a true risk estimate cannot be calculated. Tentative estimates are given of screening performance in twins using NT, the combined test (NT with first-trimester serum markers), and the integrated test (NT with first- and second-trimester serum markers), all interpreted with maternal age. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Between pregnancy biological variability of first trimester markers of Down syndrome: implications for screening in subsequent pregnancies

In a group of 149 women who had undergone routine first trimester screening using fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT) and maternal serum free β-hCG and pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in two consecutive pregnancies the within person between pregnancy biological variability of these markers has been assessed. For fetal NT there was no correlation between NT MoM in the first and second pregnancy (r=0.0800). For maternal serum free β-hCG MoM a significant correlation was observed (r=0.4174) as was also found for PAPP-A MoM (r=0.3270). The implications for such between pregnancy marker association is that women who have an increased risk of Down syndrome in their first pregnancy are 1.5–2 times more likely to repeat this event in their next pregnancy. This observation may be useful in counselling women in the first trimester screening of a subsequent pregnancy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First trimester screening for Down syndrome and assisted reproduction: no basis for concern

In pregnancies obtained after assisted reproduction the false-positive rate of second trimester Down syndrome (DS) screening is increased by 1.5–3-fold. This may cause an increase in the number of amniocenteses and the fetal loss rate. The present study for the first time examined whether assisted reproductive technologies affect the results of first trimester screening. The markers PAPP-A, free β-hCG and the nuchal translucency (NT) thickness were examined at 12–14 weeks' gestation. Screening markers in 47 in vitro fertilisation (IVF), 63 ovulation induction (OI) and 3026 spontaneously conceived singleton pregnancies were compared. The MoM (multiples of the median) value in the IVF pregnancies was 1.02 (95% CI: 0.85–1.22) for PAPP-A, 1.14 (95% CI: 0.95–1.37) for β-hCG and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.89–1.05) for NT; the MoM value in the OI pregnancies was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.76–1.05) for PAPP-A, 1.08 (95% CI: 0.93–1.25) for β-hCG and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.95–1.11) for NT. The first trimester marker values in assisted reproductive pregnancies and spontaneously conceived pregnancies were not significantly different. Estimated false-positive rates for a risk cut-off of 1:400 varied from 4.7% in IVF pregnancies to 5.1% in OI pregnancies. Therefore the false-positive rate in Down syndrome screening should be independent of the method of conception. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.