Trends in accidents,disasters and risk sources in Europe

Most of the adverse impacts on man and/or the environment result from routine human activities such as the process industry, electricity generation and use, transport and agriculture (hazards, i.e. sources of risk). Apart from such essentially technological hazards, possibly resulting in “accidents”, human health and the environment can also be affected by natural hazards, possibly resulting in “disasters”, such as earthquakes or floods. This paper examines current trends in the risk sources and occurrences of four classes of such types of undesired events, entailing largely involuntary risk (e.g. neither car-driving nor smoking):

• •major accidents at fixed installations in the process industry,
• •incidents/accidents at nuclear installations,
• •marine transport and offshore installation accidents,
• •disasters caused by natural hazards and their potential exacerbation by human activities.

It aims to provide an integrated overview of such events in Europe (≡ 15 EU Member States, 4 EFTA, 13 PHARE, 7 TACIS and 5 other South and South Eastern European countries) during the last decade, estimating and interpreting trends in the number of risk sources and accidental events. For each type of event, specific “accident” definitions are given, illustrating the differences in the perception of the respective risk.     

基于贝叶斯网络的化工园区地震次生灾害情景分析

为了研究化工园区内发生地震灾害后的事故演化过程,利用事故链模型对地震次生灾害演化过程进行分析,并将其转化为贝叶斯网络,确定各节点的变量与状态取值范围;通过相关文献及专家经验判断分析,获得贝叶斯网络中各节点的条件概率;依据贝叶斯网络的推理策略,比较不同地震烈度下,各化工事故发生的后验概率值,并探讨应急救援的及时性对地震次生灾害发生概率的影响,从关键要素遏制化工事故的发生,采取针对性的应对措施,尽可能的降低化工事故,有效的降低人员伤亡及财产损失。     

On-road driving test performance in veterans: Effects of age,clinical diagnosis and cognitive measures

Introduction: Veterans are at heightened risk of being in a motor-vehicle crash and many fail on-road driving evaluations, particularly as they age. This may be due in part to the high prevalence of age-associated conditions impacting cognition in this population, including neurodegenerative diseases (e.g., Alzheimer’s Disease) and acquired neurological conditions (e.g., cerebrovascular accident). However, understanding of the impact of referral diagnosis, age and cognition on Veterans’ on-road driving performance is limited. Methods: 109 Veterans were referred for a driving evaluation (mean age = 72.0, SD = 11.5) at a driving assessment clinic at the Minneapolis Veterans Affairs Healthcare System. Of the 109 Veterans enrolled, 44 were referred due to a neurodegenerative disease, 37 due to an acquired neurological condition, and 28 due to a non-neurological condition (e.g., vision loss). Veterans completed collection of health history information and administration of cognitive tests assessing visual attention, processing speed, and executive functioning, as well as a standardized, on-road driving evaluation. Results: A total of 17.9% of Veterans failed the on-road evaluation. Clinical diagnostic group was not associated with failure rate. Age was not associated with failure rates in the full sample or within diagnostic groups. After controlling for age, poorer processing speed and selective/divided attention were associated with higher failure rates in the full sample. No cognitive tests were associated with failure rates within diagnostic groups. Conclusion: Referral diagnosis and age alone are not reliable predictors of Veterans’ driving performance. Cognitive performance, specifically speed of processing and attention, may be helpful in screening Veterans’ driving safety. Practical Applications: Clinicians tasked with assessing Veterans’ driving safety should take into account cognitive performance, particularly processing speed and attention, when making decisions regarding driving safety. Age and referral diagnosis, while helpful information, are insufficient to predict outcomes on driving evaluations.     

A model of fishing vessel accident probability

Problem: Commercial fishing is one of the least safe occupations. Method: The researchers develop a fishing vessel accident probability model for fishing areas off the northeastern United States using logit regression and daily data from 1981 to 1993. Results: The results indicate that fishing vessel accident probability declined over the study period. Higher wind speed is associated with greater accident probability. Medium-size vessels have the highest accident probability, while small vessels have the lowest. Within the study region, accident probability is lower in the southwestern section than in the northeastern section. Accidents are likely to occur closer to shore than offshore. Accident probability is lowest in spring. Impact on Industry: The probability model is an important building block in development and quantitative assessment of management mechanisms related to safety in the commercial fishing industry.     

Linking emotional intelligence to safety performance: The roles of situational awareness and safety training

Introduction: Safety outcomes in the workplace require individual employees to perform (behave) safely in everyday duties. While the literature suggests that emotional management capabilities or traits can be positively related to individual performance in certain conditions, it is not clear how they can influence safety-related performance in high-risk work contexts. Drawing upon trait activation theory, this paper aims to examine when emotional intelligence (EI) benefits employees’ safety performance. We propose that when employees receive inadequate safety training, EI is more likely to trigger their situational awareness and consequently promote their safety performance. Method: We collected time-lagged data from 133 full-time airplane pilots working in commercial aviation industry. Hierarchical moderated regression analysis was conducted to test the moderating effect of safety training inadequacy on the EI–situational awareness relationship. The moderated mediation model, which involves conditional indirect effects of EI on safety performance via situational awareness across different levels of safety training inadequacy, was tested using the PROCESS-based bootstrap confidence interval. Results: Safety training inadequacy negatively moderated the relationship between EI and situational awareness, such that EI was significantly related to situational awareness only when safety training inadequacy was more salient. The more inadequate safety training was, the greater the indirect effect of EI on safety performance via situational awareness was. Conclusions: Inadequate safety training, as a negative situational cue, can activate individuals’ EI to drive their safety-related cognitions (e.g., situational awareness) and behaviors. Effective safety training may be able to complement employees’ low EI in shaping their situational awareness and safety behaviors. Practical Applications: Aviation managers should monitor the adequacy and effectiveness of safety training; this could make pilots’ situational awareness and safety performance depend less on personal attributes (e.g., EI), which organizations are less able to control. When training capacity is temporarily limited, priority might be given to those with low EI.     

煤矿企业重大灾害预防与安全保障体系构建与运行评价

为提高煤矿企业重大灾害预防与安全保障能力,以典型煤矿企业为例,深入分析企业重大灾害的孕灾环境与类型,确定诱发煤矿重大灾害事故发生的关键因素,并提出构建以“安全文化理念”为1个核心,涵盖“组织”“制度”“人员”“技术”“信息”“装备”“资金”7个要素以及“危险源预控”和“灾害应急救援”2个关键环节的整体安全保障体系;最后,利用事故树模型和层次分析法评价某典型煤矿企业历年来的灾害事故实际情况,提出相关保障体系的持续优化方案,研究结果可为煤炭行业企业开展重大灾害预防与安全保障体系的设计与构建提供参考和借鉴。     

Factors related to youth self-efficacy for injury prevention bicycle skills

Introduction: Bicycle riding is a common activity for children, but they are prone to bicycle-related injuries. It is well-established that injury prevention measures such as wearing a helmet and correctly riding a bicycle can reduce the severity of an injury and the likelihood of having an accident. However, how to increase bicycle injury prevention behaviors among children, who collectively fail to engage in injury prevention behaviors, is less well understood. Self-efficacy is consistently predictive of injury prevention behavior, making it an important approach to understanding injury prevention skills among this key population. The objective of this study was to explore and identify factors internal to the child as well as factors about his or her environment that predict a child’s self-efficacy for injury prevention skills. Method: Two generalized linear mixed effects models were created from survey data collected from elementary school students (n = 2,255) as part of a school-based bicycle education program. Models focused on self-efficacy for riding a bicycle and self-efficacy for wearing a helmet correctly. Results: In both models, road safety knowledge, opportunity for skill building through owning appropriate equipment (a bicycle or helmet), and situation through perception of neighborhood safety were predictive. The analyses reveal these variables as key factors for greater confidence, with feeling safe riding in the neighborhood, in particular, emerging as highly predictive of self-efficacy for injury prevention skills. Conclusions: These findings highlight the interplay of individual and environmental factors within confidence for injury prevention behavior. Given self-efficacy’s strong relationship to prevention behavior, these findings indicate actionable strategies. Practical Applications: The key factors highlighted in this study can be used by policymakers to target specific areas (e.g., neighborhood safety) to promote self-efficacy and thus improve injury prevention. These factors can also inform strategies for establishing safety skills in bicycle-safety education programs.     

A comparative analysis of safety management and safety performance in twelve construction projects

IntroductionSafety management in construction is complicated due to the complex “nature” of the construction industry. The aim of this research was to identify safety management factors (e.g., risk management and site management), contextual factors (e.g., organisational complexity) and combinations of such factors connected to safety performance. Method: Twelve construction projects were selected to compare their safety management and safety performance. An analytical framework was developed based on previous research, regulations, and standards where each management factor was defined. We employed qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to produce case knowledge, compare the cases, and identify connections between the factors and safety performance. The material collected and analyzed included, for example, construction planning documents, reports from OHS-inspections, safety indicators, and interviews with project leaders and OHS experts. Results and conclusions: The research showed that: (a) the average score on 12 safety management factors was higher among projects with high safety performance compared to projects with low safety performance; (b) high safety performance can be achieved with both high and low construction complexity and organizational complexity, but these factors complicate coordination of actors and operations; (c) it is possible to achieve high safety performance despite relatively poor performance on many safety management factors; (d) eight safety management factors were found to be “necessary” for high safety performance, namely roles and responsibilities, project management, OHS management and integration, safety climate, learning, site management, staff management, and operative risk management. Site management, operative risk management, and staff management were the three factors most strongly connected to safety performance. Practical implications: Construction stakeholders should understand that the ability to achieve high safety performance in construction projects is connected to key safety management factors, contextual factors, and combinations of such factors.     

Injury and loss concentration by sinkings in fishing fleets

Sinkings of fishing vessels, when accompanied by human loss, are accidents which lead to a great social upheaval, especially in the local area where they occur. In order to avoid or reduce these accidents, national governments must include in their legislation for this sector the appropriate safety measures. These resources and their distribution must be assigned in accordance with the needs of the accidentality, this requiring a detailed knowledge of the concentration of accidentality of a country’s fishing sector. In this context, the aim of the present work is twofold: first, to formulate a methodology for the fishing sector of a country, allowing the inequalities in the concentration of sinking accidents to be analysed; and second, to apply this methodology to the Spanish fishing fleet. Thus, two indices are constructed per region and type of fishing, for two variables: fishermen and vessels. Results are obtained both for the concentration of accidents and the associated Lorenz curves. An increase in the inequality in the spatial and functional distribution of these accidents is verified.     

Horseback riding-related injuries treated in emergency departments: Risk factors and prevention strategies

IntroductionDespite inherit dangers of horseback riding (HBR), research on HBR-related injuries is sparse. This study used both quantitative and qualitative methods to (1) examine HBR-related injuries treated in emergency departments (EDs) and associated risk factors and (2) explore HBR-related injury experiences and recommendations for prevention strategies from the perspective of riders. Method: We retrospectively analyzed data from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS), identifying HBR-related ED visits between 2010 and 2014. Additionally, we conducted 10 phone interviews with active horseback riders to understand their experiences and perspectives regarding HBR-related injuries and recommendations for prevention measures. Results: A total of 21,899 ED visits for HBR-related injuries were identified. When weighted, these represented 100,964 ED visits in the United States. Females had a consistently higher proportion of ED visits compared to males across the study period, with the proportion of ED visits being highest in females aged 15–19. Most injuries (85.9%) were treated and released from the ED. Three primary themes were identified as key to the prevention of HBR-related injuries: (1) rider safety (e.g., use of protective equipment), (2) external factors (e.g., awareness of environment), and (3) rider and horse interactions (e.g., matching skill level of the rider to the horse). Conclusions: Results indicate that HBR-related injuries treated in EDs are prevalent, with female riders aged 15–19 years having the highest proportion of injuries treated in EDs. Practical Applications: There is a critical need for injury prevention programs that not only promote the use of protective equipment, but that also educate horseback riders on horse behavior, the proper handling of horses, and safe riding practices.     

Making safety training stickier: A richer model of safety training engagement and transfer

Introduction: Compared to other types of occupational training, safety training suffers from several unique challenges that potentially impair the engagement of learners and their subsequent application or “transfer” of knowledge and skills upon returning to the job. However, existing research on safety training tends to focus on specific factors in isolation, such as design features and social support. The aim of this research is to develop an overarching theoretical framework that integrates factors contributing to training engagement and transfer. Method: We conducted a comprehensive qualitative review of safety training research that was published between 2010 and 2020. We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar, yielding 147 articles, and 38 were included. We content analyzed article summaries to arrive at core themes and combined them with contemporary models of general occupational training to develop a rich model of safety training engagement and transfer. Results: We propose that training engagement is a combination of pre-training factors such as individual, organizational, and contextual factors, that interact with design and delivery factors. Safety training engagement is conceptualized as a three-component psychological state: affective, cognitive, and behavioral. Organizations should prioritize pre-training readiness modules to address existing attitudes and beliefs, optimize the safety training transfer climate, and critically reflect on their strategy to design and deliver safety training so that engagement is maximized. Conclusions: There are practical factors that organizations can use before training (e.g., tailoring training to employees’ characteristics), during training (e.g., ensuring trainer credibility and use of adult learning principles), and after training (e.g., integrating learned concepts into systems). Practical Applications: For safety training to ‘stick,’ workers should be affectively, cognitively, and behaviorally engaged in learning, which will result in new knowledge and skills, improvements in attitudes, and new safety behaviors in the workplace. To enable engagement, practitioners must apply adult learning principles, make the training relevant, and tailor the training to the job and individual needs. After training, ensure concepts are embedded and aligned with existing systems and routines to promote transfer.     

Stigma at work: The psychological costs and benefits of the pressure to work safely

Introduction: Workplace accidents and injuries can be quite costly to both individual employees and their organizations. While safety climate (i.e., perceptions of policies and procedures related to safety that should reflect an organization's value of safety) has been established as a predictor of safety behaviors, less research has considered the possible negative pressures that could result from an environment that emphasizes safety. Though organizations may intend to create a positive safety climate, concerns about being treated differently if an employee were to be involved in a safety incident may result in unintended, but detrimental safety and health outcomes. Method: This study investigated the stigma associated with being involved in a safety-related incident in relation to self-reported safety behaviors and psychological health outcomes. The data were acquired through a two-wave prospective design, surveying workers from Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk; N = 528) who indicated they were exposed to at least one physical work stressor (e.g., heavy lifting; air quality; standing for extended periods) a few times each month or more. Results: When controlling for safety climate, safety stigma was related to decreased safety compliance and poorer psychological health. There was a marginally significant interaction between safety stigma and safety motivation in relation to safety compliance. Conclusions: These findings suggest that experiencing pressure to work safely, for fear of being evaluated negatively, may actually come at the cost of employees' safety compliance and psychological health. Practical applications: These results may be useful in assessing and intervening to improve an organization's safety climate. Organizations should closely examine the climate for safety to ensure that positive aspects of safety are not undermined by a stigmatizing pressure associated with safety in the work environment.     

Improving workplace safety by thinking about what might have been: A first look at the role of counterfactual thinking

Introduction: Information processing theories of workplace safety suggest that cognition is an antecedent of safety behavior. However, little research has directly tested cognitive factors as predictors of workplace safety within organizational psychology and behavior research. Counterfactuals (cognitions about “what might have been”) can be functional when they consist of characteristics (e.g., “upward’ – focusing on better outcomes) that alter behavior in a manner consistent with those outcomes. This field study aimed to examine the influence of counterfactual thinking on safety behavior and explanatory mechanisms and boundary conditions of that relationship. Method: A sample of 240 medical providers from a hospital in China responded to three surveys over a four-month time frame. Results: Results showed that upward counterfactuals were positively related to supervisor ratings of safety compliance and participation. These relationships were mediated by safety knowledge but not by safety motivation. Upward counterfactuals were more strongly related to safety behavior and knowledge than downward counterfactuals. As expected, safety locus of control strengthened the mediating effects of safety knowledge on the relationship between upward counterfactuals and safety behavior. Conclusions and Practical Applications: The findings demonstrated that counterfactual thinking is positively associated with safety behavior and knowledge, thus expanding the variables related to workplace safety and laying some initial groundwork for new safety interventions incorporating counterfactual thinking.     

城市危险源爆炸灾害应急损失评估研究

采用冲击波伤害-破坏超压准则,首先确定了不同当量TNT炸药爆炸引起的人员伤害区域和建筑物破坏区域;再通过确定危险物爆炸所产生热量值的大小,将各种危险物料转化为相应当量的TNT炸药,可用于评估各种不同危险物料爆炸所造成的损失。同时,结合GIS软件平台,编制了爆炸灾害评估模拟程序。在软件平台中以图形的形式给出了设定条件下人员伤害区域及建筑物破坏区域的范围,根据区域内的人员分布和建筑物造价、财产多少,给出了定量的人员伤亡和经济损失应急评估。     

Experimental investigation of gas explosion in single vessel and connected vessels

Gas explosion in connected vessels usually leads to high pressure and high rate of pressure increase which the vessels and pipes can not tolerate. Severe human casualties and property losses may occur due to the variation characteristics of gas explosion pressure in connected vessels. To determine gas explosion strength, an experimental testing system for methane and air mixture explosion in a single vessel, in a single vessel connected a pipe and in connected vessels has been set up. The experiment apparatus consisted of two spherical vessels of 350 mm and 600 mm in diameter, three connecting pipes of 89 mm in diameter and 6 m in length. First, the results of gas explosion pressure in a single vessel and connected vessels were compared and analyzed. And then the development of gas explosion, its changing characteristics and relevant influencing factors were analyzed. When gas explosion occurs in a single vessel, the maximum explosion pressure and pressure growth rate with ignition at the center of a spherical vessel are higher than those with ignition on the inner-wall of the vessel. In conclusion, besides ignition source on the inner wall, the ignition source at the center of the vessels must be avoided to reduce the damage level. When the gas mixture is ignited in the large vessel, the maximum explosion pressure and explosion pressure rising rate in the small vessel raise. And the maximum explosion pressure and pressure rising rate in connected vessels are higher than those in the single containment vessel. So whenever possible, some isolation techniques, such as fast-acting valves, rotary valves, etc., might be applied to reduce explosion strength in the integrated system. However, when the gas mixture is ignited in the small vessel, the maximum explosion pressures in the large vessel and in the small vessel both decrease. Moreover, the explosion pressure is lower than that in the single vessel. When gas explosion happens in a single vessel connected to a pipe, the maximum explosion pressure occurs at the end of the pipe if the gas mixture is ignited in the spherical vessel. Therefore, installing a pipe into the system can reduce the maximum explosion pressure, but it also causes the explosion pressure growth rate to increase.     

Investigating the impacts of crash prediction models on quantifying safety effectiveness of Adaptive Signal Control Systems

Introduction: Adaptive Signal Control System (ASCS) can improve both operational and safety benefits at signalized corridors. Methods: This paper develops a series of models accounting for model forms and possible predictors and implements these models in Empirical Bayes (EB) and Fully Bayesian (FB) frameworks for ASCS safety evaluation studies. Different models are validated in terms of the ability to reduce the potential bias and variance of prediction and improve the safety effectiveness estimation accuracy using real-world crash data from non-ASCS sites. This paper then develops the safety effectiveness of ASCS at six different corridors with a total of 65 signalized intersections with the same type of ASCS, in South Carolina. Results: Validation results show that the FB model that accounts for traffic volume, roadway geometric features, year factor, and spatial effects shows the best performance among all models. The study findings reveal that ASCS reduces crash frequencies in the total crash, fatal and injury crash, and angle crash for most of the intersections. The safety effectiveness of ASCS varies with different intersection features (i.e., AADT at major streets, number of legs at an intersection, the number of through lanes on major streets, the number of access points on minor streets, and the speed limit at major streets). Conclusions: ASCS is associated with crash reductions, and its safety effects vary with different intersection features. Practical Applications: The findings of this research encourage more ASCS deployments and provide insights into selecting ASCS deployment sites for reducing crashes considering the variation of the safety effectiveness of ASCS.     

机场鸟击事故灾害的生态防治

从生态学角度分析了机场鸟击事故灾害发生的根源和特点，概述了鸟击灾害的生态防治措施，包括主动性防治和被动性防治，以及计算机和信息技术的应用。指出鸟击灾害已经成为机场飞行安全的主要威胁之一；生态综合防治是机场鸟击事故灾害防治的根本手段。     

Assessing the impacts of signal coordination on the crash risks of various driving cohorts

Introduction: Signal coordination has been wildly implemented on urban arterials to improve traffic efficiency. The impacts of signal coordination on traffic safety, however, are largely overlooked, particularly on crash propensities of driver–vehicle cohorts, which will vary due to changing traffic flow patterns. Method: The paper aims to compare crash risks of various driving cohorts (measured by relative crash involvement ratio) on arterials with and without signal coordination with quasi-induced exposure technique, which has been well developed in estimating crash risks for driver–vehicle characteristics (i.e., driver age, gender, and vehicle type). Michigan traffic crash data (2000–2014) are retrieved for the case study. Results: The results indicate that: (a) when signal coordination is implemented, young, male drivers, and pickups are associated with more crash responsibilities; (b) crash propensities vary for different disaggregated situations, e.g., young drivers may experience the rapid increase in crash risks during the peak hours; and (c) more hazardous actions (e.g., failing to stop in assured clear distance) are witnessed for the high-risk driving cohorts on the coordinated arterials than non-coordinated ones. Conclusions and practical applications: The findings highlight the importance of safety impact analysis of signal coordination, and serve to guide the potential improvements of safety operation and management of signal coordinated arterials.     

Ground influence on high-pressure methane jets: Practical tools for risk assessment

High-pressure gaseous methane release is a relevant safety-related problem mainly in the Oil and Gas industry. As well documented, the reason for these safety concerns is connected with the severe consequences of the domino effect subsequent to the possible ignition. In risk assessment activities, estimation of the damage area is of primary importance in order to draw up proper safety guidelines. To do this, loss prevention specialists use quick and well-established numerical tools (i.e., integral models) in their daily activities. However, the presence of an obstacle in the flow field of the jet (e.g., the ground) is a more probable situation to deal with. It is known that integral models fail in this kind of scenario, leading to unreliable predictions. Hence, the present work investigates how an industrial ground surface influences the LFL cloud size of a horizontal high-pressure methane jet. An innovative quick procedure is proposed allowing to determine the height below which the ground begins to influence the LFL cloud size and the extent of such influence. Therefore, this procedure allows practitioners to establish when integral models can be used and when not to use them, and also provides a simple and reliable alternative to their use. These analytical instruments are derived from an extensive computational fluid dynamics analysis performed with Ansys Fluent 19.0.     

How good micro/macro ergonomics may improve resilience,but not necessarily safety

ContextProfessional sea fishing is among the world’s most variable (non-standardized) and dangerous sectors of activity. Because of this, it provides a remarkable model to study the complex links existing between resilience and safety. Paradoxically, even if the huge risks being run cause many shipwrecks (low safety level), studies show that these sailors avoid an even greater number of accidents thanks to their exceptional skill and know-how (remarkable resilience level). This article examines several ways of improving safety in an activity of this type.MethodTwo intervention strategies are tested: (i) a micro-ergonomics strategy offering conduct assistance guidelines based on accident analyses of the most serious and frequent causes (collisions while fishing); (ii) a macro-ergonomics strategy comparing the safety level of large firms having committed to a Total Quality approach, to that of smaller companies, often privately owned.ResultNeither of the two strategies works out as expected. The micro-ergonomics anti-collision assistance strategy is misused towards an increase of the fishing objective; the macro-ergonomics strategy is even more surprising: the largest firms suffer from a smaller number of shipwrecks, but a much greater number of work-related injuries; the strategy simply results in a minor shift of the sacrificial decision between performance and safety (loss of men vs. loss of vessels), while maintaining the same priority for financial performance.DiscussionThe article submits a simple modeling of the relationship between resilience and safety, and discusses the choice of strategies for safety-improving interventions, taking into account the system’s financial performance and the legal pressure to which it is subjected.