基于PCA-ELM模型的露采爆破振动对民房破坏的预测分析

针对露天采矿爆破振动对民房破坏的预测问题,采用主成分分析(PCA)和极限学习机(ELM)方法,选取爆破振幅、主频率、主频率持续时间、灰缝强度、砖墙面积率、房屋高度、屋盖形式、圈梁立柱、施工质量、场地条件10个主要影响因素。引入相关性分析在主成分分析过程中,对相关性高的指标进行降维,把得到的3个综合因子和爆破振幅、主频率、主频率持续时间、砖墙面积率作为输入变量,构建露天煤矿PCA-ELM预测模型。选取露天矿实际爆破过程中测量的100组数据作为模型训练样本,用另外20组数据作为测试样本进行预测。结果表明:对民房破坏影响因素中灰缝强度、房屋高度、屋盖形式、圈梁立柱、施工质量、场地条件之间具有较高的关联度。该模型处理高维数据时较传统的ELM算法具有预测精度高、稳定性好等特点,可准确预测爆破振动对民房的破坏程度,误判率为1/20。     

Mortality from road traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city: A 20-year analysis in Shenzhen, 1994–2013

Objective: This study aimed to describe the trends of motorization and mortality rates from road traffic accidents and examine their associations in a rapidly urbanizing city in China, Shenzhen.

Methods: Using data from the Shenzhen Deaths Registry between 1994 and 2013, we calculated the annual mortality rates of road traffic accidents, in addition to the age- and sex-specific mortality rates and their annual percentage changes (APCs) for the period of 2000–2013. We also examined the associations between mortality rate of road traffic accidents and traffic growth with Spearman's rank correlation analysis and a log-linear model derived from Smeed's law.

Results: A total of 20,196 deaths due to road traffic accidents, including 14,391 (71.3%) male deaths and 5,805 (28.7%) female deaths, were recorded in Shenzhen from 1994 to 2013. The annual mortality rates in terms of deaths per population and deaths per vehicle changed in similar patterns, demonstrating an increase since 1994 and peaking in 1997, followed by a steady decrease thereafter. The decrease in mortality was faster in individuals aged 20 year or older compared to those younger than 20 years. The mortality rates in term of deaths per population were positively correlated with the total number of vehicles per kilometer of road but negatively correlated with the motorization rate in term of vehicles per population. The estimated model for deaths due to road traffic accidents in relation to the total population and the number of registered vehicles was ln (deaths/10,000 vehicles) = ?1.902 × ln (vehicles/population) ? 1.961. The coefficient was statistically significant (P < .001) and the coefficient of determination was 0.966, indicating a good model fit.

Conclusions: We described a generally decreasing trend in the mortality rates of road traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city based observations in the 20-year period from 1994 to 2013. The decreased mortality rate may be explained by the expansion of road network construction, improved road safety regulations and management, as well as more accessible ambulance services in recent years. Nevertheless, road traffic accidents remain a universal problem of great public health concern in the whole population.     

The Indigenous Fisherman Divers of Thailand: Diving-Related Mortality and Morbidity

The Urak Lawoi are indigenous fishermen on Thailand’s west coast. The population includes an estimated 400 divers who dive using surface-supplied compressed air. In a cross-sectional survey conducted among the 6 major communities of Urak Lawoi, questionnaire-based interviews were administered to active divers, ex-divers, and families or colleagues of divers who had died in the previous 5 years. Six deaths resulting from diving-related accidents were identified, indicating a diving-related mortality rate of approximately 300 per 100,000 person-years, while in the same 5-year period 11 divers had been disabled owing to diving-related events, indicating a diving-related disabling event rate of approximately 550 per 100,000 person-years. Among 342 active divers interviewed, one third reported having suffered from decompression illness, although based on reported current symptoms over 50% were classified as suffering from recurring non-disabling decompression illness. Physical examination conducted on a subset of 98 active divers revealed the presence of spinal injury (clonus, raised muscle tone, and heightened reflexes) and of joint damage (pain in one or more joint, crepitus, or restricted movement) in 24 and 30% respectively. Improved primary prevention and medical treatment are needed to reduce mortality and morbidity among this population.     

超高层住宅楼的内天井尺寸对自然排烟影响的数值模拟研究

火灾时超高层住宅楼的内天井会形成"烟囱效应",烟气可能通过面向内天井的开启窗户进入四周住宅。利用FDS数值模拟的方法研究火源位置、火源功率和内天井的高度、长度对超高层住宅楼内天井自然排烟的影响。研究结果表明:火源位于内天井四周某住宅时,若住宅内喷淋系统有效,内天井四周其它住宅不会达到危险状态。火源位于内天井底部时,4.0MW的火灾可能会使内天井四周其它住宅受到火灾烟气影响,达到危险状态,此时内天井四周其它住宅到达危险时间与内天井高度满足二次增长函数,到达危险时间随高度的增加趋于稳定。内天井长度d存在临界值,d≤10m时到达危险时间与内天井长度满足二次增长函数;d10m时到达危险时间接近稳定值。     

Road traffic deaths in Brazil: rising trends in pedestrian and motorcycle occupant deaths

Objective: According to the World Health Organization, the global burden of road traffic mortality exceeds 1.27 million people annually; over 90 percent occur in low- and middle-income countries. Brazil's road traffic mortality rate of ～20 per 100,000 is significantly higher than nearby Chile or Argentina. To date, there has been very little information published on road traffic fatalities among vulnerable road users (VRUs) in Brazil. Methods: Road traffic fatality data from 2000 to 2008 were extracted from Brazil's Mortality Information System (SIM). Road traffic deaths were extracted using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) V-codes (V01-V89) and then subcategorized by VRU categories. Information was then disaggregated by gender, age, and region. Results: In 2008, 39,211 deaths due to road traffic injuries were recorded in Brazil, resulting in a crude mortality rate of 20.7 per 100,000 inhabitants. Pedestrian mortality averaged 5.46 deaths per 100,000 between 2000 and 2008. The mortality rate for elderly pedestrians (80+ years) is 20.1 per 100,000, over 10 times that of 0- to 9-year-olds. In the past decade, motorcycle occupant mortality has dramatically increased by over 300 percent from 1.5 per 100,000 in 2000 to 4.7 per 100,000 in 2008. The 20- to 29-year age group remains most affected by motorcycle deaths, with a peak fatality rate of 10.76 per 100,000 in 2008. The north and northeast regions, with the lower per capita gross domestic product (GDP), have higher proportions of VRU deaths compared with other regions. Conclusions: Vulnerable road users are contributing an increasing proportion of the road traffic fatalities in Brazil. Nationally, elderly pedestrians are at particularly high risk and motorcycle fatalities are increasing at a rapid rate. Less prosperous regions have higher proportions of VRU deaths. Understanding the epidemiology of road traffic mortality in vulnerable road user categories will better allow for targeted interventions to reduce these preventable deaths.     

活动板房全尺寸火灾实验研究

通过两次板房火灾试验,分析探讨板房的屋面材料和墙板材料的选用、室内可燃物的控制、板房之间的间距、板房之间设防火隔板以及板房的整体结构耐火等问题。得出:(1)板房的屋面材料建议选用:单层彩钢板+阻燃EPS泡沫板+石膏板吊顶。(2)板房中相邻房间之间的隔墙板,建议选用双层彩钢岩棉复合板等;其它墙板选用双面彩钢阻燃EPS复合板。(3)室内可燃物方面注意控制室内可燃物的种类和数量及其分布状况。(4)板房之间的间距考虑尽量放宽,同时尽量缩短房前屋檐的跨度。(5)板房之间设防火隔板可以有效地阻止火焰的蔓延,其防火效果显著。(6)板房整体结构具有一定的耐火功能。     

基于GIS的建筑物地震次生火灾危险性模拟

地震次生火灾对人类的危害极大 ,192 3年日本关东大地震中 ,大火烧毁了 4 4 .7万栋房屋 ,烧死5 .6万余人。笔者计算了建筑物发生地震次生火灾概率的大小 ,并在此基础上对建筑物发生地震次生火灾的危险性进行了模拟。通过对基于GIS的建筑物地震次生火灾危险性模拟 ,为预防地震次生火灾的发生提供有力的依据 ,同时为地震次生火灾发生后进行应急救灾提供了有力的支持。     

基于能力谱的建筑物震害评估及城市抗震规划

为减轻地震建筑物破坏带来的人员伤亡和经济损失,根据能力谱方法计算7度和8度地震影响下建筑物的破坏状态,在此基础上进行城市抗震规划。首先把城市建筑物分成钢筋混凝土、砌体、钢框架及木结构4类;然后利用能力谱方法得到建筑物各种损坏状态的概率及震害指数;最后提出抗震规划措施,在GIS环境下可视化表达建筑物震害分级图。结果表明,中层小于低层和高层建筑物的震害指数;对低层和中层建筑物,钢筋混凝土的抗震能力较强。7度地震时,未设防和低设防建筑物的震害指数在0.5和1.0之间,轻微破坏;部分中等设防和高设防建筑物的震害指数小于0.5,基本完好。8度地震时,4类建筑物的震害指数在0.5～1.0之间,轻微破坏。进行城市抗震规划后,建筑物受7度地震影响时基本完好,受8度地震影响时轻微破坏。     

单层柱面网壳结构强震作用下抗震性能研究

地震是严重危害人类生命财产的自然灾害 ,但目前工程界对于网壳结构强震下的抗震性能尚缺乏透彻了解。笔者通过对单层柱面网壳典型算例进行三维地震作用下的双重非线性时程分析 ;观察其多项特征响应指标随地震动逐渐增强的变化情况 ;研究其塑性发展过程和破坏特征 ;对单层柱壳强震作用下的破坏机理进行了探讨 ;并在此基础上对不同参数柱壳弹塑性地震响应规律和破坏特征进行了分析和总结。研究表明 ,地震作用下单层柱壳破坏前均经历了一定的塑性发展过程 ,其破坏的真正原因是结构塑性发展和位形变化的交互作用 ,矢宽比较大的柱壳倾向于动力失稳破坏。     

基于汶川地震的地震人员伤亡预测模型研究

地震发生以后及时掌握人员伤亡情况对灾后救援具有重要作用,因此,建立地震人员伤亡预测模型是极为重要的。以2008年汶川地震人员伤亡数据及房屋破坏面积数据为基础,运用线性回归分析方法模拟出地震人员伤亡预测模型。该函数模型是以建筑物的易损性为自变量,分别以死亡人数、受伤人数为因变量构建的。同时对回归模型进行误差分析,并参考前人模型可知房屋内人口密度和地震发生时间2个因素对模型有很大影响,进而对回归系数进行调整。最后利用文中模型和其他几种预测模型分别对汶川地震和玉树地震进行验证,并与地震实际伤亡结果进行比较,证明研究的模型的准确性和适用性。     

The role of sales of new motorcycles in a recent increase in motorcycle mortality rates

INTRODUCTION: The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has reported that mortality rates from crashes among motorcycle riders in the United States increased from 21.0 per 100 million motorcycle miles traveled in 1997 to 38.4 per 100 million motorcycle miles traveled in 2003. At the same time, annual domestic sales of new, on-road motorcycles increased from 247,000 in 1997 to 648,000 in 2003. METHOD: This study used data from the NHTSA Fatality Analysis Reporting System and annual sales figures for on-road motorcycles to determine if newer motorcycles were more likely to be involved in fatal crashes and if fatal crashes involving newer motorcycles could account for the mortality increase after 1997. RESULTS: Mortality rates were 7.9, 8.1, 5.4, and 2.9 per 10,000 motorcycles sold for motorcycles <1, 1-3, 4-6, and 7-11 years old, respectively, from 1994 to 2003. Assuming complete registration, the number of motorcycles sold during the 2000-2003 time period accounted for 42.4% of the total number of motorcycles registered in 2003. Motorcycles sold during 2000-2003 were associated with 52.5% of all motorcycle deaths in 2003. The increase in the number of deaths associated with motorcycles less than four years old between 1997 and 2003 accounted for 78.1% of the total increase in motorcyclist deaths over this time period. CONCLUSIONS: Two possible explanations for the association between high sales volumes and mortality rates are: (a) increased exposure from more extensive use of motorcycles when they are new; and (b) inexperience with motorcycle riding or with specific motorcycles. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This study suggests that the deaths of growing numbers of motorcyclists are a consequence of the financial success of the motorcycle industry.     

基于Probit-Bayes方法的储罐地震易损性研究

为了研究地震对储罐造成的影响,结合历史上储罐的震害资料,将储罐的损伤程度进行分级,通过采用Bayes方法估计Probit模型参数,再转化成储罐的损伤概率,给出了各个损伤状态下的模型参数及给定地震加速度下储罐的损伤概率,提出了1种基于Probit -Bayes方法估计储罐易损性的计算方法。结果表明:所提出的地震损伤计算方法,能够有效的评估储罐在不同地震加速度下的损伤程度,可为震后储罐的安全评估提供理论依据。     

混合质量阻尼器(HMD)抗震控制研究

建筑物的倒塌是地震造成破坏的主要形式之一 ,它导致大量的人员和财产损失。不断改进建筑物的抗震设计方法是传统的抗震减灾措施。随着结构振动控制领域的不断发展 ,它为建筑抗震减灾提供了一个新的途径。根据建筑结构抗震设计“三水准”的设防准则 ,混合质量阻尼器 (HybridMassDamper ,HMD)被应用于建筑抗震减灾中 ,对于发生频度较高的低烈度地震 ,主要通过调谐质量阻尼器 (TunedMassDamper ,TMD)控制结构的振动 ;而当发生烈度较高的地震或TMD不能满足控制目标要求时 ,启动作动器施加主动控制力 ,用主动控制力驱动TMD的附加质量块 ,提供给主结构更大的控制力 ,把TMD转化为主动质量阻尼器 (ActiveMassDemper ,AMD) ,取得预期的控制效果。理论分析和仿真计算表明 ,HMD适用地震激励的范围广 ,控制效果显著     

工业设备地震破坏等级划分研究

我国工业企业地震灾害破坏等级规范中只有针对建筑物的震害破坏等级划分,而对在地震灾害中同样受损严重的工业设备,有关的国家规范以及研究成果却极少。分析了工业设备类型以及震害损失特点,并在借鉴国内外研究基础上,提出工业设备地震破坏等级划分原则和依据,将工业设备震害破坏划分为基本完好、轻微破坏、中等破坏、严重破坏以及毁坏五个等级,并给出每个等级下的宏观描述。工业设备震害破坏等级划分是对我国地震现场工作规范的补充和完善,对提高我国工业企业的地震灾害损失评估工作效率和准确度有重要意义。     

Health Impact of Injuries: A Population-Based Epidemiological Investigation in a Local Community of Bangladesh

Due to the lack of valid injury data, the objective of this study was to assess the injury morbidity and mortality in a local community of Bangladesh. A population-based survey of 3,258 households was conducted in 1996. The information was collected by trained field-level health workers using three pretested structured forms. The estimated crude morbidity from injuries was 311 per 1,000 population per year, and injury accounted for 13% of all morbidity. The children and old-age groups experienced higher injury rates than others, and male children aged 5–15 years had the highest incidence rates (546/1,000 person-years). Falls and cutting injuries tended to be the most frequently (62.4%) observed types of injuries in this survey. The home (42%) and workplace (42%) were where most of the injuries occurred, and the majority (70.7%) of the injuries were minor. Of all deaths, mortality from injuries was 2.9%, and drowning (27.8%) and homicide (16.7%) were found as common forms of injury-causing deaths. This study invites more detailed investigation on injury morbidity and mortality.     

平原地区公路路基震害类型及机理分析

根据资料分析和现场调查,对平原区公路路基常见震害进行分类.结合库仑强度理论和有效应力原理分析平原区公路路基震害机理.研究表明: 地震作用引起土体中超静孔隙水压力上升、有效应力降低,从而弱化了土体的强度;水平地震力是诱发路堤、边坡破坏的因素;同水平地震力相似,竖向地震力同样会造成土体强度的削弱.最后,针对平原区公路路基震害的特点和机理,在平原区道路的选线、施工、质量控制等方面给出防治措施.     

Decreasing residential fire death rates and the association with the prevalence of adult cigarette smoking — United States, 1999–2015

IntroductionEach year from 1999 through 2015, residential fires caused between 2,000 and 3,000 deaths in the U.S., totaling approximately 45,000 deaths during this period. A disproportionate number of such deaths are attributable to smoking in the home. This study examines national trends in residential fire death rates, overall and smoking-related, and their relationship to adult cigarette smoking prevalence, over this same period.MethodsSummary data characterizing annual U.S. residential fire deaths and annual prevalence of adult cigarette smoking for the years 1999–2015, drawn from the National Vital Statistics System, the National Fire Protection Association, and the National Health Interview Survey were used to relate trends in overall and smoking-related rates of residential fire death to changes in adult cigarette smoking prevalence.ResultsStatistically significant downward trends were identified for both the rate of residential fire death (an average annual decrease of 2.2% – 2.6%) and the rate of residential fire death attributed to smoking (an average annual decrease of 3.5%). The decreasing rate of residential fire death was strongly correlated with a gradually declining year-to-year prevalence of adult cigarette smoking (r = 0.83), as was the decreasing rate of residential fire death attributed to smoking (r = 0.80).Conclusions and practical applicationsDecreasing U.S. residential fire death rates, both overall and smoking-related, coincided with a declining prevalence of adult cigarette smoking during 1999–2015. These findings further support tobacco control efforts and fire prevention strategies that include promotion of smoke-free homes. While the general health benefits of refraining from smoking are widely accepted, injury prevention represents a potential benefit that is less recognized.     

Seismic risk assessment of storage tanks in Turkish industrial facilities

In 1999, two earthquakes in northwest Turkey caused heavy damage to a large number of industrial facilities. This region is the most industrialized in the country, and heavy damage has a significant economic influence. Industrial storage tanks, ruptured by earthquakes, exascerbate damage through the spread of fire. Storage tanks are uniquely structured, tall cylindrical vessels, some supported by relatively short reinforced concrete columns. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the earthquake performance of Turkish industrial facilities, especially storage tanks in terms of earthquake resistance. Modeling a typical storage tank of an industrial facility helps to understand the structure’s seismic response. A model tank structure was modelled as a solid with lumped mass and spring systems. Performance estimation was done with 40 different earthquake data through nonlinear time history analyses. After the time history analyses, fragility analyses produced probabilistic seismic assessment for the tank model. For the model structure, analysis results were evaluated and compared. In the study, vulnerability of storage tanks in Turkey was determined and the probabilistic risk was defined with the results of the analysis.