燃气施工输配管道路径流量分配的可靠性分析

高精度分析燃气施工输配管道路径流量分配可靠性,能够有效降低经济损失出现的机率,保证用户燃气使用安全。提出一种新的燃气施工输配管道路径流量分配的可靠性分析方法,采用燃气施工输配管道路径流量计算方法,获取燃气施工输配管道路径流量分配情况后,通过基于流量熵的燃气施工输配管道路径流量可靠性分析方法,实现燃气施工输配管道路径流量分配的可靠性分析。实验结果表明,所提方法可以有效分析燃气施工输配管道路径流量分配的可靠性,从而选取合理的燃气供气路径,并且该方法分析准确率始终大于0.95,分析结果与实际情况高度相符,可信度较高,可保证燃气施工输配管道正常供气能力。     

袋式除尘器用滤料失效分析

随着袋除尘在工业烟尘控制领域的广泛应用,滤料失效越来越引起行业重视。应用故障树分析方法系统研究了滤料失效的模式,并对滤料破损失效、滤料阻力增大失效、滤料透滤排放超标失效进行了致因分解,找出了引起滤料失效的最基本原因事件,对指导现场安全使用滤料有较好的帮助。     

天然气企业安全诊断评估方法研究及应用

近年来天然气企业微泄漏事件频发,企业安全管理问题逐步突显,安全环保形势愈发严峻,仅靠监督检查、体系审核等常规管理手段已不能满足企业对风险防控更迫切的需求。文章介绍了一种适合天然气 企业安全问题的诊断评估方法,采用故障树方法对天然气企业发生的典型事故进行分析,系统性地查找导致顶 上事件发生的根本原因,将其归类并作为安全诊断评估指标。采取专家打分排序、优序图法设计指标权重,确定安全诊断评估指标体系。根据事故事件类型,结合诊断评估要点及评分原则,形成诊断评估标准。该方法在某天然气净化厂得到应用验证,能够准确排查现场安全问题,精准定位管理原因,提出针对性改进措施,解决现场安全问题管理根源难题,有效促进企业安全管理持续改进和能力提升。     

城市燃气管道环境风险评价和管理探讨

城市燃气输配管线使用年限过长,事故频发,安全隐患多,需对城市燃气管道进行环境风险评价。文章通过事故树分析,找出导致城市燃气管网泄漏的基本事件,介绍城市燃气管道环境风险识别、源项分析、后果计算、风险评价、风险管理等各个环节的内容和方法,提出了燃气管道在设计、建设及运行阶段加强环境风险管理的具体措施。该分析方法能够发现影响城市燃气管道安全的因素,解决存在的隐患问题,加强城市燃气管线的管理,对城市燃气管道环境风险评估和管理具有指导作用。     

二维水权分配公平性评估的双因素灰色关联分析方法

针对二维水权分配公平性评估的特点,对邓氏灰色关联度进行了拓展,提出了双因素灰色关联度概念,构建了系统比较序列为双因素序列组的灰色关联分析方法.将水量权和排污权的分配比例向量组作为双因素系统比较序列组,将水权理想公平分配比例向量作为系统主行为序列,基于两者之间的双因素灰色关联度,评估二维水权分配方案的公平性.双因素灰色关联分析方法可实现对水量权和排污权分配公平性的有机统一评估.以北江流域为例进行了分析.     

电厂袋式除尘器滤袋故障分析及处理

以北京高井热电厂为对象,运用故障树分析的方法,对袋式除尘器及滤袋失效进行了故障树分析,并将之演变为成功树,提出了防止滤袋失效的措施。     

橡胶帘密封干式煤气柜的腐蚀及防护问题探讨

转炉煤气柜作为转炉煤气回收系统中的一个重要环节,起着对煤气输配、稳压调峰的关键作用。由于煤气中酸性气体以及冷凝水等极易对煤气柜造成腐蚀极而导致煤气泄露,严重威胁到安全生产,因此对气柜进行有效的腐蚀防护措施是十分重要的。本文对橡胶帘密封干式煤气柜的腐蚀原因、机理及防护措施进行了详细地探讨,并针对新建气柜提出了相关的防护方案与建议。     

基于参数修正FMEA的电力作业无人机环境适应性分析

针对目前电力作业无人机性能受到环境因素影响的评估普遍缺乏有效手段，提出一种基于参数修正FMEA(Potential Failure Mode and Effects Analysis)的无人机飞行环境适应性分析方法。首先分析电力作业环境下无人机飞行的环境影响因素，并确定环境因素指标，然后采用FMEA方法对各环境指标风险量化并进行参数修正，提出无人机飞行环境风险模型，确定无人机飞行的环境综合风险等级并量化，最后在实际场景对无人机飞行风险进行测试，根据所提出方法分析得到无人机飞行环境综合风险为7.775，属于较低风险，测试结果表明无人机在该环境下可安全飞行。该方法为无人机安全飞行评估提供了一定的依据。     

环境监测中仪器分析方法不确定度的评估(Ⅰ)

结合我国环境监测的实际情况,通过对环境监测中常用仪器分析方法中测量不确定度的评估,主要对环境监测中常用仪器分析方法不确定度的来源如称量、体积校准、温度波动、标准物质、化学试剂、摩尔质量、工作曲线、方法和仪器重复性、仪器显示和读数、数字修约等作一评述,并指出了环境监测中常用仪器分析方法测量不确定度的评估应注意解决的问题。     

大气污染源在线监测系统工况监测评估与工程实践

目前,由于大气污染源在线监控设施落后、诸多原因造成监管力度不到位,部分生产企业已出现监测数据与环境污染实际情况不一致的问题.本文以试点企业为研究对象,在构建工况监测系统的基础上,建立了工况监测评估体系,对试点企业大气污染源的在线监测系统进行监测和故障诊断,并通过工程案例分析,介绍了故障诊断过程中所采用的主要分析方法.实践表明,通过在线监测系统的工况监测,生产企业在获得准确可靠的监测数据的基础上,也具备了快速查明并排除监控设施故障、保证系统正常运行的能力,避免了因监控系统故障造成的经济损失和安全环保事故.     

Decision Support for Mitigating the Risk of Tree Induced Transmission Line Failure in Utility Rights-of-Way

Vegetation management is a critical component of rights-of-way (ROW) maintenance for preventing electrical outages and safety hazards resulting from tree contact with conductors during storms. Northeast Utility’s (NU) transmission lines are a critical element of the nation’s power grid; NU is therefore under scrutiny from federal agencies charged with protecting the electrical transmission infrastructure of the United States. We developed a decision support system to focus right-of-way maintenance and minimize the potential for a tree fall episode that disables transmission capacity across the state of Connecticut. We used field data on tree characteristics to develop a system for identifying hazard trees (HTs) in the field using limited equipment to manage Connecticut power line ROW. Results from this study indicated that the tree height-to-diameter ratio, total tree height, and live crown ratio were the key characteristics that differentiated potential risk trees (danger trees) from trees with a high probability of tree fall (HTs). Products from this research can be transferred to adaptive right-of-way management, and the methods we used have great potential for future application to other regions of the United States and elsewhere where tree failure can disrupt electrical power.     

A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF THE CONSTRAINTS TO URBAN STREAM ENHANCEMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The environment surrounding urban streams imposes constraints upon stream enhancement projects. Constraints include bridges, culverts, highways, sewer and water lines, lack of easements, and other floodplain structures. The consequences of failure of these infrastructure constraints can be significant and should be considered in the design process. Fault tree analysis provides a systematic technique for analyzing the interactions of events that could lead to infrastructure failure. A case study of a stream in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, shows that fault tree analysis can effectively model the interactions between the stream system and the infrastructure constraints and predict the most likely modes of failure. In addition, the relative success of alternative designs and failure mitigation techniques can be assessed using this analysis tool, lending insight into the urban stream enhancement design process. The method could also provide justification in the design permitting process and input for risk assessment.     

事故树分析法在油气井生产事件调查中的应用

针对油气井异常关井事故、事件及其防控措施效果不理想的现状,应用事故树分析方法,在演绎异常关井诱因与防控措施逻辑关系的基础上,建立了油气井异常关井事故树模型。以牙哈某油气井回压开关高报警关井为例,运用最小割集分析了油气井异常关井的路径和最优防控途径。牙哈某油气井回压开关高报警关井事故树最小割集计算结果表明,该事故树共有11个最小割集,反映了影响回压开关高报警关井事故的原因相对比较复杂。为制定相应的防控对策提供了理论依据,增强了防控措施的针对性和实用性。     

基于模糊数学方法的土壤肥力综合评价及应用

模糊数学是一种研究和处理模糊现象的定量化分析方法,在各个领域具有广泛的应用价值.以GIS技术为基础,阐述了该方法在土壤肥力综合评价中的应用.以安庆市土壤样点数据为例,建立包括土壤的pH值、有机质、全氮等8项指标土壤肥力多指标评价模型,对安庆市范围的土壤肥力状况进行评价,分析土壤肥力空间分布.结果表明,模糊数学方法在土壤肥力综合指标评价中具有简便可行性.     

Factorial fuzzy programming for planning water resources management systems

In this paper, we propose a factorial fuzzy programming (FFP) approach for planning water resources management systems. The conventional fuzzy method cannot reflect the interactions among uncertain system parameters nor quantify their interactive effects. This may lead to important interrelationships among system parameters being neglected in systems analysis, and the derived decisions may not be robust enough to support the management under uncertainties. The objective of this study is to develop an FFP approach to deal with such interactive uncertainties. Factorial analysis (FA) was integrated with the fuzzy technique to quantify the effects of multiple fuzzy modeling parameters on the system performance and to reveal their implicit interrelationships. A flood-diversion planning case was studied to illustrate the applicability of the FFP approach. The individual and interactive effects of fuzzy parameters on the system objectives were evaluated. The influential effects were identified and the implicit interrelationships within influential interactions were revealed.     

FSILP: fuzzy-stochastic-interval linear programming for supporting municipal solid waste management

Although many studies on municipal solid waste management (MSW management) were conducted under uncertain conditions of fuzzy, stochastic, and interval coexistence, the solution to the conventional linear programming problems of integrating fuzzy method with the other two was inefficient. In this study, a fuzzy-stochastic-interval linear programming (FSILP) method is developed by integrating Nguyen's method with conventional linear programming for supporting municipal solid waste management. The Nguyen's method was used to convert the fuzzy and fuzzy-stochastic linear programming problems into the conventional linear programs, by measuring the attainment values of fuzzy numbers and/or fuzzy random variables, as well as superiority and inferiority between triangular fuzzy numbers/triangular fuzzy-stochastic variables. The developed method can effectively tackle uncertainties described in terms of probability density functions, fuzzy membership functions, and discrete intervals. Moreover, the method can also improve upon the conventional interval fuzzy programming and two-stage stochastic programming approaches, with advantageous capabilities that are easily achieved with fewer constraints and significantly reduces consumption time. The developed model was applied to a case study of municipal solid waste management system in a city. The results indicated that reasonable solutions had been generated. The solution can help quantify the relationship between the change of system cost and the uncertainties, which could support further analysis of tradeoffs between the waste management cost and the system failure risk.     

风险评价模式在HSE管理中的应用

根据《中印石油管道项目HSE手册》,对项目进行风险模块划分,以盾构施工模块为例,对其施工过程进行模块综合评价,得到系统安全级数为0.7077,处于中等安全与较安全之间,基本满足要求,为项目的安全环保进行提供了科学依据。     

A new method for predicting vegetation distributions using decision tree analysis in a geographic information system

Decision tree analysis was used to predict the distribution of forest communities in an area on the south coast of New South Wales, Australia. The analysis was carried out using a geographical information system environmental data base of those topographic and geological variables thought to influence the distribution of vegetation and derived from cartographic sources. The resulting maps of forest communities are of a resolution sufficient to delimit individual forest stands and contain much ecological information.     

模糊集对分析在城市绿地景观生态综合评价中的应用

运用模糊集对分析法，建立了城市绿地景观生态综合评价数学模型。应用实例表明，该模型可以为城市绿地系统景观评价生态提供客观，合理的决策方法。