Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

The Reproductive Capacity of Plants in a Gradient of Chemical Environmental Pollution

The reproductive capacity of Taraxacum officinale s.l. (two morphological forms: T. off. f. dahlstedtii Lindb. fil. and T. off. f. pectinatiforme Lindb. fil.) under conditions of chemical environmental pollution was studied in years differing in weather conditions. The number of generative shoots in plants increased along the toxic load gradient, which led to an increase in the total number of seeds and the weight of filled seeds. The relative energy value of seeds was determined from the amount of plastic substances in them. The number of seeds was shown to increase at a considerably higher rate than the energy expenditures for the formation of each seed. A general principle was revealed that determines the energy expenditures for the formation of a normal seed in both T. officinale forms under different weather conditions and under the chemical pollution of the environment.     

Analysis of consortive relationships between the Siberian stone pine and the nutcracker in the Northern Urals

The data presented have been obtained in the course of long-term stationary quantitative studies on the annual seed reproduction dynamics of Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) stands, including the abundance of seedlings, and the local population of the nutcracker (Nucifraga caryocatactes macrorhynchos C.L. Brehm) in forests of the Northern Urals. Statistically significant consortive relationships of the nutcracker population density with the yield of Siberian stone pine seeds and of the abundance of pine seedlings with the yield of seeds and the abundance of nutcrackers over preceding years have been hrevealed for the first time and formalized mathematically.     

Testing of the European Union exposure-response relationships and annoyance equivalents model for annoyance due to transportation noises: The need of revised exposure-response relationships and annoyance equivalents model

An in situ survey was performed in 8 French cities in 2012 to study the annoyance due to combined transportation noises. As the European Commission recommends to use the exposure–response relationships suggested by Miedema and Oudshoorn [Environmental Health Perspective, 2001] to predict annoyance due to single transportation noise, these exposure–response relationships were tested using the annoyance due to each transportation noise measured during the French survey. These relationships only enabled a good prediction in terms of the percentages of people highly annoyed by road traffic noise. For the percentages of people annoyed and a little annoyed by road traffic noise, the quality of prediction is weak. For aircraft and railway noises, prediction of annoyance is not satisfactory either. As a consequence, the annoyance equivalents model of Miedema [The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 2004], based on these exposure-response relationships did not enable a good prediction of annoyance due to combined transportation noises. Local exposure-response relationships were derived, following the whole computation suggested by Miedema and Oudshoorn [Environmental Health Perspective, 2001]. They led to a better calculation of annoyance due to each transportation noise in the French cities. A new version of the annoyance equivalents model was proposed using these new exposure-response relationships. This model enabled a better prediction of the total annoyance due to the combined transportation noises. These results encourage therefore to improve the annoyance prediction for noise in isolation with local or revised exposure-response relationships, which will also contribute to improve annoyance modeling for combined noises. With this aim in mind, a methodology is proposed to consider noise sensitivity in exposure-response relationships and in the annoyance equivalents model. The results showed that taking into account such variable did not enable to enhance both exposure-response relationships and the annoyance equivalents model.     

The Effects of Environmental Brand Attributes and Nature Imagery in Green Advertising

Following Hartmann and Apaolaza-Ibáñez’ [(2009). Green advertising revisited. Conditioning virtual nature experiences. International Journal of Advertising, 28(4), 715–739] approach, this experimental study compares the effects of three types of green print ads: a non-green ad, a functional green ad promoting environmental product attributes, and a combined nature ad featuring a pleasant nature image in addition to functional attributes. We extend prior research by simultaneously testing moderating and mediating mechanisms to explain brand attitudes and purchase intention. Using a quota sample of 456 consumers, findings suggest that the functional ad enhances perceptions of environmental brand benefits, which positively affect purchase intention partially mediated by brand attitudes. The combined nature ad, by contrast, activates an additional emotional process of virtually experiencing nature which positively influences brand attitudes and purchase intention beyond perceptions of environmental brand benefits. The effects of the combined nature ad are even stronger for highly involved consumers.     

花果期持续受渍对油菜生长、产量与含油量的影响

油菜是江汉平原广泛栽培的越冬作物，在春季雨水较多时常遭遇持续受渍胁迫，对产量有明显影响。为了探索春季油菜田的排水管理，取得较高产量，通过测坑试验和小区试验，初步研究了花果斯持续受渍对油菜生长，产量和含油量的影响。结果表明：油菜花果期持续受渍，主要是通过单株的有效角果数，千粒重等因素影响产量；随着持续受渍时间的延长，各受渍处理的单株有效角果数减少，千粒重降低，产量下降，与对照相比，较短时间（比如2天）持续受渍对油菜生长发育，产量形成以及籽粒含油量影响不大，但较长时期持续受渍会对油菜的这些方面产生不良影响，此类水分胁迫是生产上重点防治的对象。因此，在考虑地下水位动脉及其作用时间对油菜影响的排渍指标研究中，应主要从持续受渍程度对产量的影响方面建立关系，确定适宜的新型排渍指标。     

Fuel efficiency improvement of a dual-fuel engine fuelled with Honge oil methyl ester (HOME)–bioethanol and producer gas

Renewable and alternative fuels have numerous advantages compared with fossil fuels as they are renewable and biodegradable and provide food and energy security and foreign exchange savings besides addressing environmental concerns and socio-economic issues (Yaliwal et al. 2013. International Journal of Sustainable Engineering, doi:10.1080/19397038.2013.801530. Zhu et al. 2011a, Applied Thermal Engineering 31 (14–15): 2271–2278; Zhu et al. 2011b, Fuel 90: 1743-1750; Banapurmath, Tewari, and Hosmath 2008, Renewable Energy 33: 2007-2018; Banapurmath 2009, “Performance, Combustion and Emission Characteristics of a Single Cylinder Direct Injection CI Engine Operated on Dual Fuel Mode Using Honge Oil and Producer Gas.” PhD thesis, 1–195; Banapurmath et al. 2011, Waste and Biomass Valorization 2: 1–11). In this context, the main objective of the present work is to study methods of biofuel production such as Honge oil methyl ester (HOME) using a conventional transesterification process and bioethanol from the Calliandra calothyrsus shrub using a new pretreatment method known as hydrothermal explosion. Further, experimental investigations were carried out on a single-cylinder, four-stroke, direct-injection stationary diesel engine operating in a dual-fuel mode using HOME, bioethanol and producer gas combinations to determine its performance, combustion and emission characteristics. The performance of the dual-fuel engine was analyzed at optimized engine conditions. HOME-Bioethanol (BE) blends such as HOME+ 5% bioethanol (BE5), HOME+ 10% bioethanol (BE10) and HOME+ 15% bioethanol (BE15) were prepared by adding bioethanol to HOME (on volume basis) in different proportions ranging from 5 to 15% with an increment of 5%. In this present work, the effect of different BE blends on the performance of producer gas fuelled dual fuel engine was studied. Experimental investigation on dual fuel engine using BE5-Producer gas operation resulted in up to 4–9% increased brake thermal efficiency with decreased hydrocarbon (HC), carbon monoxide (CO) and marginally increased nitric oxide (NOx) emission levels compared to HOME-Producer gas, BE10-producer gas and BE15-producer gas mode of operation. However, it was observed that, the overall performance of BE-producer gas operation was found to be lower compared to diesel-producer gas operation.     

基于云推理和模糊逻辑关系模型的干旱等级预测方法研究

针对月平均降水量时间序列存在模糊性和随机性的特点,给出一种结合云推理和模糊逻辑关系的干旱等级预测方法。采用徐州站1951~2014年逐月降水量数据,通过计算标准化降水指数(SPI),得到实测干旱等级序列,以1952~2013年SPI指数数据作为样本数据,并提取样本模糊时间序列的52条模糊逻辑推理规则,将某月份的SPI指数数据作为输入变量,利用云发生器进行云推理,得到未来相应月份的干旱等级预测结果。结果表明,研究方法对干旱发生具有一定预测能力,尤其是对无旱的预测比较准确,但是对于干旱状态突变的预测能力较弱,主要是由于发生严重旱灾的可能性较少,导致模糊推理规则较少。因此,对于江苏省以轻旱为主的苏北地区,可以作为早期干旱预警的参考。     

Specific Features of Mycorrhizal Symbiosis Formation in the Ontogeny of Orchids of the Temperate Zone

The study of relationships between symbiotic fungi and germinating seeds of the Orchidaceae showed that the effect of a fungus on germination depends on the presence of seed dormancy and its pattern. The specificity of symbiosis varies widely. The development of symbiotic sprouts in situand in vitro differs only in the rate, whereas the morphogenesis of asymbiotic sprouts is characterized by several anomalies.     

Intraspecific Variability of Metal Tolerance in Taraxacum officinale Wigg. s.l. Seed Progeny: Analysis Based on Dose–Response Relationship

Russian Journal of Ecology - Based on the analysis of dose–response relationships under exposure to a wide range of copper sulfate concentrations, the metal tolerance of seed progeny was...     

Life improvement programme of producer gas–biodiesel operated dual fuel engines

Biomass fuels have attracted an increase in interest due to the alarming rise in global greenhouse gases and the rapid rise of petroleum prices. Energy security on a sustainable basis can come only with the responsible use of home-sourced resources and not from imported fossil fuels such as coal or crude petroleum products. Partial combustion of biomass in the downdraft gasifier generates producer gas that can be used as the sole fuel or as a supplementary fuel for internal combustion engines. A dual fuel mode of operation, in which producer gas is used as a supplementary inducted fuel along with injected pilot fuels of Honge or Jatropha biodiesels, can be a promising alternative to diesel only usage. Two different carburettors were designed and fabricated to facilitate gas entry at 45° and 90° to the engine cylinder. The engine was experimentally optimised using Honge or Jatropha biodiesels–producer gas combinations with respect to maximum pilot fuel savings in the dual fuel mode operation, optimum air and gas mixing with different tested carburettors. The performance, combustion and emission characteristics of these dual fuel combinations were compared at different load conditions. The results showed that biodiesels of Honge or Jatropha oils–Producer gas combinations with carburettor of 90° gas entry resulted in better performance.     

Variability of biochemical parameters and radiation resistance of the seed progeny of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Descurainia sophia</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lepidium apetalum</Emphasis> under exposure to various factors

The physiological and biochemical characteristics of seedlings of Descurainia sophia (Fisch.) and Lepidium apetalum Wild. have been used as examples to demonstrate that long-term exposure of plant populations to environmental stress factors causes adaptive changes in antioxidant and genomic systems that may considerably affect the radioresistance of seed progeny. The resistance to additional acute irradiation of seed progeny of wild plants adapted to different environmental conditions has been found to be determined not only by the combination of antioxidant and DNA-repair protection systems and the vulnerability of the functioning genome, but also by their variability. The data on the relationship of the radioresistance of wild plant populations with physiological and biochemical characteristics and their variability may be used for expert environmental assessment of the state of the biota and prediction of its viability under exposure to abiotic environmental factors.     

The effects of sport fishing growth on behavior of commercial fishermen in Balbina reservoir, Amazon, Brazil

An important alternative for sustainable use of tucunaré stocks and improvement in fishermen welfare in Balbina reservoir, Central Amazon, would be to train commercial fisherman to also become tourist guides for sport fishing. In this study, we modeled fishermen response to this question, in order to evaluate the acceptance of such an idea. Thus, we surveyed 47 fishermen, who currently comprise approximately 75% of the total fishermen population. This survey was implemented during December of 2001 and January of 2002. We used a probity analysis to run two models. The first model includes the variables: family size, school level, fishing time, residence time and boat ownership. On the other hand, the second model includes the number of children under and above eight years old but not the family size. Both models are significant and the most relevant variables are: fishing time (years of participation of fisherman is in the activity) and residence time (length of residency of particular fishermen live at the village nearby the reservoir).     

How do soil and water conservation practices influence climate change impacts on potato production? Evidence from eastern Canada

We used a stochastic production function method together with a farm-level dataset covering 18 farms over a 23-year period to assess the role that soil and water conservation practices play in affecting the climate change impacts on potato yield in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada. Our analysis accounted for the yield effects of farm inputs, farm technologies, farm-specific factors, seasonal climatic variables, soil and water conservation practices, and a series of interaction terms between soil and water conservation practices and climatic variables. Regression results were used in combination with three climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (A2, A1B, B1) and four general circulation model predictions over three 30-year time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) to estimate a range of potato yield projections over these time periods. Results show that accounting for soil and water conservation practices in climate–yield relationships increased the impacts of climate change on potato yield, with yield increases of up to 38 % by the 2071–2100 period. These findings provide evidence that adoption of soil and water conservation practices can help boost potato production in a changing Canadian climate.     

Sensitivity of typical Mediterranean crops to past and future evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation in Apulia

The region of Apulia, which is located in the south-east tip of the Italian Peninsula, has a typical Mediterranean climate with mild winters and hot-dry summers. Agriculture, an important sector of its economy, is potentially threatened by future climate change. This study describes the evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation from the recent past to the next decades and estimates future potential impacts of climate change on three main agricultural products: wine, wheat and olives. Analysis is based on instrumental data, on an ensemble of climate projections and on a linear regression model linking these three agricultural products to seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. In Apulia, precipitation and temperature time series show trends toward warmer and marginally drier conditions during the whole analyzed (1951–2005) period: 0.18 °C/decade in mean annual minimum temperature and ?14.9 mm/decade in the annual total precipitation. Temperature trends have been progressively increasing and rates of change have become noticeably more intense during the last 25 years of the twentieth century. Model simulations are consistent with observed trends for the period 1951–2000 and show a large acceleration of the warming rate in the period 2001–2050 with respect to the period 1951–2000. Further, in the period 2001–2050, simulations show a decrease in precipitation, which was not present in the previous 50 years. Wine production, wheat and olive harvest records show large inter-annual variability with statistically significant links to seasonal temperature and precipitation, whose strength, however, strongly depends on the considered variables. Linear regression analysis shows that seasonal temperature and precipitation variability explains a small, but not negligible, fraction of the inter-annual variability of these crops (40, 18, 9 % for wine, olives and wheat, respectively). Results (which consider no adaptation of crops and no fertilization effect of CO₂) suggest that evolution of these seasonal climate variables in the first half of the twenty-first century could decrease all considered variables. The most affected is wine production (?20 ÷ ?26 %). The effect is relevant also on harvested olives (?8 ÷ ?19 %) and negligible on harvested wheat (?4 ÷ ?1 %).     

The use of plant seeds in toxicity tests of phenolic compounds

Three types of plant seeds-millet, radish, and velvetleaf-were used for toxicity tests of phenolic compounds. Preliminary tests using deionized water indicated that the seed assay was simple, and the toxicity tests of various phenolic compounds showed that results were reproducible. Among the three types of seeds, millet was most sensitive in most cases. The drawback for seed toxicity tests is that plant seeds appear to be less sensitive than other bioassay organisms; however, their simplicity and accuracy should not be overlooked.     

Cytogenetic Variation in Populations of Scotch Pine

Cytogenetic variation was analyzed in daughter populations of Scotch pine from the Voronezh Forestry. The dependence of the variation on the method of seed collection (the commercial method; the population method, when seeds from a group of phenotypically normal trees in the center of the forest are collected; or the individual method, when seeds from plus trees are collected) and on the ecological situation at the sampling site (ecologically safe conditions or chemical or physical pollution) was studied. The parameters of the mitotic rate and mitotic pathology were estimated at 7–9% and up to 5%, respectively. These parameters may be considered as normal when estimating the quality of seed progeny in pine and when pine is used as a test object in cytogenetic monitoring. The limits of variation and the spectra of cytogenetic characteristics allowing the pine populations to maintain their homeostasis were also determined.     

Teaching Amid Despair: Global Warming and Israeli Wars on Lebanon

Editor's Note: For the past two years, Rania Masri has been an assistant professor in the Department of Environmental Science and a researcher at the Institute of the Environment at the University of Balamand in Lebanon. Prior to that, she was the Director for the Southern Peace Research and Education Center at the Institute for Southern Studies in North Carolina. As a human rights advocate and environmental scientist, she has served as the coordinator of the Iraq Action Coalition (1995–2005), an elected national board member of Peace Action (1997–2005), an elected member of the United for Peace and Justice steering committee (2003–2005), and a state board member of the American Civil Liberties Union (2002–2004). Her research and activism has centered on US domestic and foreign policy on issues ranging from environmental justice and civil rights to anti-war (Iraq) and anti-occupation (Palestine). She has been a regular contributor to a wide range of print, radio, and television media, including Alternative Radio, “Democracy Now!,” International Socialist Review, and Znet.     

Indicators as ‘circular argumentation constructs’? An input–output analysis of the variable structure of five environmental sustainability country rankings

This paper is concerned with the normative underpinnings of popular sustainability indicators and country rankings. Attempts to quantify national sustainability in the form of composite indicators and rankings have increased rapidly over past decades. However, questions regarding validity and interpretability remain. This article combines theoretical and statistical tools to explore how input variables in five popular sustainability indicators can be related to different theoretical paradigms: weak and strong sustainability. It is shown that differences in theoretical interpretations affect input variable selection, which in turn affects indicator output. This points towards the risk of indicators becoming a sort of ‘circular argumentation construct’. The article argues that sustainability indicators and country rankings must be treated as theoretical just as much as statistical instruments. It is proposed that making underlying normative assumptions explicit, and making input variable selection more clear in a theoretical sense, can enhance indicator validity and usability for policy makers and researchers alike.     

Pea weevil damage and chemical characteristics of pea cultivars related to Bruchus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pisorum</Emphasis> L. tolerance

It was studied the tolerance of five spring pea cultivars to Bruchus pisorum based on the weevil damage and chemical composition of seeds related to pea weevil tolerance. From visibly damaged pea seeds by pea weevil was isolated the parasitoid Triaspis thoracica Curtis (Hymenoptera, Braconidae). Cultivars with a lower protein and phosphorus content had a lower level of damage. The crude protein, crude fiber and phosphorus content in damaged seeds significantly or no significantly was increased. Modus, followed Glyans had emerged as tolerant cultivars against the pea weevil. They had the lowest total damaged seed degree, loss in weight of damaged seeds, values of harmfulness coefficient and lower protein and phosphorus content.