Spatial dynamics of carbon storage: a case study from Turkey

Forest ecosystems have an important role in carbon cycle at both regional and global scales as an important carbon sink. Forest degradation and land cover changes, caused by deforestation and conversion to non-forest area, have a strong impact on carbon storage. The carbon storage of forest biomass and its changes over time in the Hartlap planning unit of the southeastern part of Turkey have been estimated using the biomass expansion factor method based on field measurements of forests plots with forest inventory data between 1991 and 2002. The amount of carbon storage associated with land use and land cover changes were also analyzed. The results showed that the total forested area of the Hartlap planning unit slightly increased by 2.1 %, from 27,978.7 ha to 28,282.6 ha during the 11-year period, and carbon storage increased by 9.6 %, from 390,367.6 to 427,826.9 tons. Carbon storage of conifer and mixed forests accounted for about 70.6 % of carbon storage in 1991, and 67.8 % in 2002 which increased by 14,274.6 tons. Land use change and increasing forest area have a strong influence on increasing biomass and carbon storage.     

Assessing different sources of uncertainty in hydrological projections of high and low flows: case study for Omerli Basin,Istanbul, Turkey

This study investigates the assessment of uncertainty contribution in projected changes of high and low flows from parameterization of a hydrological model and inputs of ensemble regional climate models (RCM). An ensemble of climate projections including 15 global circulation model (GCM)/RCM combinations and two bias corrections (change factor (CF) and bias correction in mean (BC)) was used to generate streamflow series for a reference and future period using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model with the 25 best-fit parameter sets based on four objective functions. The occurrence time of high flows is also assessed through seasonality index calculation. Results indicated that the inputs of hydrological model from ensemble climate models accounts for greater contribution to the uncertainty related to projected changes in high flows comparing to the contribution from hydrological model parameterization. However, the uncertainty contribution is opposite for low flows, particularly for CF method. Both CF and BC increases the total mean variance of high and low flows. The variability in the occurrence time of high flows through RCMs is greater than the variability resulted from hydrological model parameters with and without statistical downscaling. The CF provides more accurate timing than BC and it shows the most pronounced changes in flood seasonality.     

Stochastic approaches for time series forecasting of boron: a case study of Western Turkey

In the present study, a seasonal and non-seasonal prediction of boron concentrations time series data for the period of 1996–2004 from Büyük Menderes river in western Turkey are addressed by means of linear stochastic models. The methodology presented here is to develop adequate linear stochastic models known as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) to predict boron content in the Büyük Menderes catchment. Initially, the Box–Whisker plots and Kendall’s tau test are used to identify the trends during the study period. The measurements locations do not show significant overall trend in boron concentrations, though marginal increasing and decreasing trends are observed for certain periods at some locations. ARIMA modeling approach involves the following three steps: model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking. In the model identification step, considering the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) results of boron data series, different ARIMA models are identified. The model gives the minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC) is selected as the best-fit model. The parameter estimation step indicates that the estimated model parameters are significantly different from zero. The diagnostic check step is applied to the residuals of the selected ARIMA models and the results indicate that the residuals are independent, normally distributed, and homoscadastic. For the model validation purposes, the predicted results using the best ARIMA models are compared to the observed data. The predicted data show reasonably good agreement with the actual data. The comparison of the mean and variance of 3-year (2002–2004) observed data vs predicted data from the selected best models show that the boron model from ARIMA modeling approaches could be used in a safe manner since the predicted values from these models preserve the basic statistics of observed data in terms of mean. The ARIMA modeling approach is recommended for predicting boron concentration series of a river.     

Spatiotemporal changes of landscape pattern in response to deforestation in Northeastern Turkey: a case study in Rize

Recognition and understanding of landscape dynamics as a historical legacy of disturbances are necessary for sustainable management of forest ecosystems. This study analyzes spatial and temporal changes in land use and forest cover patterns in a typical mountain forest area in Rize Forest Enterprise of the Northeastern part of Turkey. The area is investigated by evaluated the temporal changes of spatial structure of forest conditions through spatial analysis of forest cover type maps from 1984 and 2007 using GIS and FRAGSTATS. The quantative evidences presented here showed that there were drastic changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of land use/forest cover. As an overall change between 1984 and 2007, there was a net decrease of 2.30% in total forested areas. On one hand, productive forest areas decreased 12,506 ha, on the other hand, degraded forest areas increased 14,805 ha. In examining the changes of crown closure and development stages of forest ecosystem during the study period, the forest stand area with medium crown closures increased. Regenerated area increased while the other development stages were left to grow to mature development stages in the period. These results regarding to crown closure and development stage showed that forest quality has increased but total forest areas decreased. This is partially due to out-migration of rural population in Rize and Cayeli towns. In terms of spatial configuration, analysis of the metrics revealed that landscape structure in Study area had changed substantially over the 23-year study period, resulting in fragmentation of the landscape as indicated by the large patch numbers and the smaller mean patch sizes due to heavy timber subtraction, illegal cutting, and uncontrolled stand treatments.     

Monitoring forest structure at landscape level: a case study of Scots pine forest in NE Turkey

This study aims to investigate the change in spatial-temporal configuration of secondary forest succession and generate measurements for monitoring the changes in structural plant diversity in Yaln?zçam Scots pine forest in NE Turkey from 1972 to 2005. The successional stages were mapped using the combination of Geographic Information System (GIS), Global Positioning System (GPS), aerial photos and high resolution satellite images (IKONOS). Forest structure and its relationship with structural plant diversity along with its changes over time were characterized using FRAGSTATS. In terms of spatial configuration of seral stages, the total number of fragments increased from 572 to 735, and mean size of patch (MPS) decreased from 154.97 ha to 120.60 ha over 33 years. The situation resulted in forestation serving appropriate conditions for plant diversity in the area. As an overall change in study area, there was a net increase of 1823.3 ha forest during the period with an average annual forestation rate of 55.25 ha year^?1(0.4% per year). In conclusion, the study revealed that stand type maps of forest management plans in Turkey provide a great chance to monitor the changes in structural plant diversity over time. The study further contributes to the development of a framework for effective integration of biodiversity conservation into Multiple Use Forest Management (MUFM) plans using the successional stages as a critical mechanism.     

Influence of urban form on landscape pattern and connectivity in metropolitan regions: a comparative case study of Phoenix,AZ, USA,and Izmir,Turkey

Although ecological connectivity conservation in urban areas has recently been recognized as an important issue, less is known about its relationship to urban form and landscape pattern. This study investigates how urban morphology influences regional ecosystem pattern and landscape connectivity. Two metropolitan landscapes, Phoenix, AZ, USA, and Izmir, Turkey, were compared, both of which are fast-growing regions in their national context. A wide range of variables were considered for identifying natural and urban properties. The natural characteristics include typology of urban ecosystems, urban to natural cover ratio, dominant habitat type, urban biodiversity, landscape context, and connectivity conservation efforts. Urban parameters examine urban form, urban extent, urban cover proportion, growth rate, populations, urban gradient, major drivers of urbanization, urban density, and mode/approach of urban development. Twelve landscape metrics were measured and compared across the natural patches. Results show that there is little difference in landscape connectivity in the rural zones of Phoenix and Izmir, although Phoenix has slightly higher connectivity values. The connectivity variance in urbanized areas, however, is significantly dependent on the region. For example, Phoenix urban zones have substantially lower connectivity than either urban or suburban zones in Izmir. Findings demonstrate that small and compact urban settlements with more dense populations are more likely to conserve landscape connectivity compared to multiple-concentric but amalgamated urban form spreading all over the landscape (aka urban sprawl).     

Effect of high sulfate concentration on the corrosivity: a case study from groundwater in Harran Plain, Turkey

Corrosion, which tends to increase the concentrations of certain metals in tap water, is one of the most important water quality problems as it can affect public health and public acceptance of water supply and the cost of providing safe water. In this context, this study aimed at investigating the scale formation tendency or corrosivity of groundwater in the semi-arid Harran Plain. The degree of scale formation tendency/corrosivity of water was determined considering pHs, Langelier Index, and Ryznar Index of groundwater samples. Except for well no.4, which is close to a local hot spring, all the wells had corrosive characteristics. The amount of CO₂ from the soil zone respiration and high sulfate concentration in the wells are important factors affecting corrosiveness. Results showed that precipitation, excessive irrigation, and change in groundwater level caused seasonal variation in corrosive characteristics.     

Monitoring the urban green spaces and landscape fragmentation using remote sensing: a case study in Osmaniye,Turkey

Urban green spaces play a significant role in management of physical activity, psychological well-being, and public health of urban residents. With the expansion of urban areas in Turkey during the past decades, urban green spaces have been fragmented and dispersed causing impairment and environmental degradation. The purpose of this study is to model urban green space distribution by focusing on the landscape fragmentation in city of Osmaniye using remote sensing and geographic information system technology. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and urban landscape ratio (ULR) were used to assess the proximity and spatial arrangement of urban green spaces within the neighbor landscapes to quantify the urban land use effect. The geospatial analysis results showed that increase in total built-up area and population has significantly decreased the urban green space cover because of high levels of landscape fragmentation in urban city center. Also, due to high levels of landscape fragmentation, approximately 45% of the Osmaniye city is estimated to become urbanized by 2030. This study demonstrated the benefits of directional vegetation index application with geospatial analyses in characterizing the environmental quality for planning and management of urban green spaces. This approach could be used for determining the future urban land development scenarios correlating with regional planning procedures.     

Statistical models and time series forecasting of sulfur dioxide: a case study Tehran

This study performed a time-series analysis, frequency distribution and prediction of SO(2) levels for five stations (Pardisan, Vila, Azadi, Gholhak and Bahman) in Tehran for the period of 2000-2005. Most sites show a quite similar characteristic with highest pollution in autumn-winter time and least pollution in spring-summer. The frequency distributions show higher peaks at two residential sites. The potential for SO(2) problems is high because of high emissions and the close geographical proximity of the major industrial and urban centers. The ACF and PACF are nonzero for several lags, indicating a mixed (ARMA) model, then at Bahman station an ARMA model was used for forecasting SO(2). The partial autocorrelations become close to 0 after about 5 lags while the autocorrelations remain strong through all the lags shown. The results proved that ARMA (2,2) model can provides reliable, satisfactory predictions for time series.     

Assessing the health of an urban stream: a case study of Suzhou Creek in Shanghai, China

Restoration of urban streams and rivers has increased rapidly in developing countries in recent years. Estimating river health provides a new perspective on evaluating the ecological conditions of streams and rivers. The Suzhou Creek restoration project in Shanghai, China is a milestone for environmental protection. Based on the environmental and ecological data, including 17 indicators in five categories, collected from March 11 to April 20, 2007, the river health index (RHI) for Suzhou Creek was constructed and analysed to quantify the ecosystem of this urban river after a restoration project. The RHI scores of 34 sites ranged from 19.24 to 33.36, i.e. from poor to good. There were no significant RHI differences among stream orders, while differences in land use resulted in significant differences in channel flow status (B12), channel alteration (B21), channel sinuosity (B22), bank stability (B23), bank profile type (B25) and riparian vegetative zone width (B31). River restoration led to improved hydrological condition and channel physical form, while ammonia nitrogen (B44) and indicator scores of the presence of macro-invertebrate families (B51) were the lowest of any indicator. This case study supports the use of river health assessment as a supplement to water quality analysis in China.     

Influences of urban wastewaters on the stream water quality: a case study from Gumushane Province, Turkey

Urban wastewater in Turkey is primarily discharged without treatment to marine environments, streams and rivers, and natural and artificial lakes. Since it has been well established that untreated effluent in multi-use waters can have acute and chronic impacts to both the environment and human health, it is important to evaluate the consequences of organic enrichment relative to the structure and function of aquatic environment. We investigated the impacts of untreated municipal wastewater discharge from the city of Gumushane in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey on the surface water quality of the stream Harsit. Several key water-quality indicators were measured: chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonium nitrogen (NH ₄ ⁺ –N), nitrite nitrogen (NO ₂ ^? –N), nitrate nitrogen (NO ₃ ^? –N), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), total nitrogen (TN), orthophosphate phosphorus (PO ₄ ^3? –P), methylene blue active substances (MBAS), water temperature (t), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), and electrical conductivity (EC). The monitoring and sampling studies were conducted every 15 days from March 2009 to February 2010 at three longitudinally distributed stations. While t, pH, DO, and EC demonstrated relatively little variability over the course of the study, other parameters showed substantial temporal and spatial variations. The most dramatic differences were noted in COD, NH ₄ ⁺ –N, NO ₂ ^? –N, TKN, TN, PO ₄ ^3— P, and MBAS immediately downstream of the wastewater discharge. Concentration increases of 309 and 418 % for COD, 5,635 and 2,162 % for NH ₄ ⁺ –N, 2,225 and 674 % for NO ₂ ^? –N, 283 and 478 % for TKN, 208 and 213 % for PO ₄ ^3? –P, and 535 and 1,260 % for MBAS were observed in the summer and autumn, respectively. These changes were associated with greatly diminished seasonal stream flows. Based on NO ₂ ^? –N, TKN, PO ₄ ^3— P, and MBAS concentrations, it was concluded that Harsit stream water was correctly classified as polluted. The most telling parameter, however, was NH ₄ ⁺ –N, which indicated highly polluted waters in both the summer and autumn. The elevated concentrations of both P and N in the downstream segment of the stream triggered aggressive growth of submerged algae. This eutrophication of river systems is highly representative of many urban corridors and is symptomatic of ongoing organic enrichment that must be addressed through improved water treatment facilities.     

Assessment of surface water quality using multivariate statistical techniques: a case study of Behrimaz Stream, Turkey

Multivariate statistical techniques, such as cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis, and factor analysis, were applied for the evaluation of temporal/spatial variations and for the interpretation of a water quality data set of the Behrimaz Stream, obtained during 1 year of monitoring of 20 parameters at four different sites. Hierarchical CA grouped 12 months into two periods (the first and second periods) and classified four monitoring sites into two groups (group A and group B), i.e., relatively less polluted (LP) and medium polluted (MP) sites, based on similarities of water quality characteristics. Factor analysis/principal component analysis, applied to the data sets of the two different groups obtained from cluster analysis, resulted in five latent factors amounting to 88.32% and 88.93% of the total variance in water quality data sets of LP and MP areas, respectively. Varifactors obtained from factor analysis indicate that the parameters responsible for water quality variations are mainly related to discharge, temperature, and soluble minerals (natural) and nutrients (nonpoint sources: agricultural activities) in relatively less polluted areas; and organic pollution (point source: domestic wastewater) and nutrients (nonpoint sources: agricultural activities and surface runoff from villages) in medium polluted areas in the basin. Thus, this study illustrates the utility of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and interpretation of data sets and, in water quality assessment, identification of pollution sources/factors and understanding temporal/spatial variations in water quality for effective stream water quality management.     

Assessing the value of species: a case study on the willingness to pay for species protection in Chile

We conduct a valuation of species protection in central Chile's Campana National Park (CNP) using the choice experiment (CE) method. The CNP has been recognized as having global relevance for the conservation of biological diversity. Specifically, the aim is to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) of park visitors for protection of different protected species in the area: popular species of flora and fauna that are known by visitors of the park, inconspicuous species (phytofagous, fungus) that are unknown to visitors, and species with conservation problems of which visitors are unaware. We also investigate the WTP for different levels of species biodiversity protection within the sample as the WTP for biodiversity protection is sensitive to the way in which biodiversity is presented to respondents. The levels of species biodiversity protection are represented using “icon” inconspicuous species and numbers of inconspicuous species protected in La Campana National Park. This methodology allowed us to obtain information on the sensitivity of the participants to the scope of the information provided. Overall, visitors attach positive and significant values to the local conservation of species. These values are derived not only from the desire to preserve popular species in the area but also from the preservation or assured existence of inconspicuous species that are protected in the park. Visitors behave as consumers who are sensitive to changes in the price of park admission as a result of the implementation of specific strategies for wildlife conservation management in the park. Furthermore, the study also elucidates the observations that the public is able to perceive biodiversity conservation in broader terms than a single species and that greater benefits are attached to the conservation of multiple species than single ones. Results also provide insights into methodological considerations regarding the conceptual framework used to assess the valuation of biodiversity changes in developing countries, including the level of biological diversity and the scale of the change.     

Assessing the influence of nutrient reduction on water quality using a three-dimensional model: case study in a tidal estuarine system

A coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model has been developed and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system and adjacent coastal sea. The water quality model considers various species of nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, and phytoplankton as well as dissolved oxygen and is driven by a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The hydrodynamic and water quality models were validated with observations of water surface elevation, velocity, salinity distribution, and water quality parameters. Statistical error analysis shows that predictions of hydrodynamics, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and nutrients from the model simulation quantitatively agreed with the observed data. The validated model was then applied to predict water quality conditions as a result of a reduction in nutrient loadings based on different engineering strategies. The simulated results revealed that the dissolved oxygen concentration would increase significantly and would be higher than 2 mg/L in the main stream and in three tributaries to meet the minimum statutory requirement for dissolved oxygen. Active estuarine management focused on the reduction of anthropogenic nutrient loads is needed for improvement in water quality.     

Towards generalised reference condition models for environmental assessment: a case study on rivers in Atlantic Canada

Evaluation of the ecological status of river sites in Canada is supported by building models using the reference condition approach. However, geography, data scarcity and inter-operability constraints have frustrated attempts to monitor national-scale status and trends. This issue is particularly true in Atlantic Canada, where no ecological assessment system is currently available. Here, we present a reference condition model based on the River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System approach with regional-scale applicability. To achieve this, we used biological monitoring data collected from wadeable streams across Atlantic Canada together with freely available, nationally consistent geographic information system (GIS) environmental data layers. For the first time, we demonstrated that it is possible to use data generated from different studies, even when collected using different sampling methods, to generate a robust predictive model. This model was successfully generated and tested using GIS-based rather than local habitat variables and showed improved performance when compared to a null model. In addition, ecological quality ratio data derived from the model responded to observed stressors in a test dataset. Implications for future large-scale implementation of river biomonitoring using a standardised approach with global application are presented.     

Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways.     

Assessing the performance of SIA in the EIA context: A case study of South Africa

This article, a theoretical perspective based on a literature study, is a critical evaluation of SIA as part of the EIA process in South Africa against the background of international guidelines and best practices. It includes sections on the historical background of the development of SIA in South Africa, the legal status and requirements of SIA in the country, and a critical evaluation of SIA regulation in South Africa. The conclusion reached in the article is that the persistent problems of SIA practice, experienced in other parts of the world, are also evident in South Africa. Apart from institutional, financial and professional constraints, there are also serious problems associated with approach and methods. This conclusion confirms the findings of empirical studies that SIA in South Africa is neglected, that the practice of SIA in South Africa is not yet on a sound footing, and that it does not receive the professional attention it deserves in a country beset by enormous social challenges. To conclude the article recommendations are made to improve the level of SIA practice in South Africa, and the possible significance of this national case study for international practice is indicated.     

Determination of landscape beauties through visual quality assessment method: a case study for Kemaliye (Erzincan/Turkey)

Kemaliye (Erzincan/Turkey) is the member of European Association of Historic Towns and Regions. The aim of this study was to reveal the visual richness of the town; to identify the relationship between landscape spatial pattern and visual quality of the landscape and to offer some suggestions for the future planning in regarding to these visual beauties. The visual quality assessment method was used in this study. The results of the study revealed three landscape types that have the highest visual quality. Among those, the highest one is urban scenery 3 (US3; VQP = 5.9400), the second is geological structure scenery 5 (GSS 5; VQP = 5.9200) and the third natural scenery 3 (NS3; VQP = 5.9133). Visual quality assessment showed that urban pattern, geological structure and natural resources of the region also have visual value. The relationships between landscape spatial pattern and visual quality of landscape indicated that certain characteristics of landscape affected the quality. For instance, as the texture level decreased in natural landscapes and as the green areas increased in geological structure, visual preferences ratio increased. Some suggestions were also made regarding the visual resources use in the region.     

A GIS-based decision support system for determining the shortest and safest route to forest fires: a case study in Mediterranean Region of Turkey

The ability of firefighting vehicles and staff to reach a fire area as quickly as possible is critical in fighting against forest fires. In this study, a Geographical Information System-based decision support system was developed to assist fire managers in determining the fastest and the safest or more reliable access routes from firefighting headquarters to fire areas. The decision support system was tested in the Kahramanmaras Forestry Regional Directoratein the Mediterranean region of Turkey. The study area consisted of forested lands which had been classified according to fire sensitivity. The fire response routing simulations considered firefighting teams located in 20 firefighting headquarter locations. The road network, the locations of the firefighting headquarters, and possible fire locations were mapped for simulation analysis. In alternative application simulations, inaccessible roads which might be closed due to fire or other reasons were indicated in the network analysis so that the optimum route was not only the fastest but also the safest and most reliable path. The selection of which firefighting headquarters to use was evaluated by considering critical response time to potential fire areas based on fire sensitivity levels. Results indicated that new firefighting headquarters should be established in the region in order to provide sufficient firefighting response to all forested lands. In addition, building new fire access roads and increasing the design speed on current roads could also increase firefighting response capabilities within the study area.