Estimating overall persistence and long-range transport potential of persistent organic pollutants: a comparison of seven multimedia mass balance models and atmospheric transport models

Two different approaches to modeling the environmental fate of organic chemicals have been developed in recent years. The first approach is applied in multimedia box models, calculating average concentrations in homogeneous boxes which represent the different environmental media, based on intermedia partitioning, transport, and degradation processes. In the second approach, used in atmospheric transport models, the spatially and temporally variable atmospheric dynamics form the basis for calculating the environmental distribution of chemicals, from which also exchange processes to other environmental media are modeled. The main goal of the present study was to investigate if the multimedia mass balance models CliMoChem, SimpleBox, EVn-BETR, G-CIEMS, OECD Tool and the atmospheric transport models MSCE-POP and ADEPT predict the same rankings of the overall persistence (P(ov)) and long-range transport potential (LRTP) of POPs, and to explain differences and similarities between the rankings by the mass distributions and inter-compartment mass flows. The study was performed for a group of 14 reference chemicals. For P(ov), the models yield consistent results, owing to the large influence of phase partitioning parameters and degradation rate constants, which are used similarly by all models. Concerning LRTP, there are larger differences between the models than for P(ov), due to different LRTP calculation methods and spatial model resolutions. Between atmospheric transport models and multimedia fate models, no large differences in mass distributions and inter-compartment flows can be recognized. Deviations in mass flows are mainly caused by the geometrical design of the models.     

Assessment and Prediction of Contaminant Transport and Migration at a Florida Superfund Site

An important issue in the application of mathematical models to describe or predict the fate of solutes in soil and groundwater systems is providing the necessary data to support the spatial, temporal, and hydrogeologic model parameter requirements. The larger, more complex the model and scope of application, the more likely that significant amounts of data of several types are required. A management tool is required that allows the model and the modeler to interact with various needed databases, cope with numerous database management issues, efficiently achieve model parameterization and provide visualization of model output. The three-dimensional Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) that contains a state-of-the-art flow and solute transport model and a graphical user interface for data manipulation and analysis was applied to a Superfund site in Florida to demonstrate its capabilities for predicting solute migration.     

Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model

Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996?C2006 (3,226.2739 US$ × 10⁶ in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$ × 10⁶ in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.     

Organic Liquids Storage Tanks Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCS) Emissions Dispersion and Risk Assessment in Developing Countries: The Case of Dar-Es-Salaam City, Tanzania

The emission estimation of nine volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from eight organic liquids storage tanks companies in Dar-es-Salaam City Tanzania has been done by using US EPA standard regulatory storage tanks emission model (TANKS 4.9b). Total VOCs atmospheric emission has been established to be 853.20 metric tones/yr. It has been established further that petrol storage tanks contribute about 87% of total VOCs emitted, while tanks for other refined products and crude oil were emitting 10% and 3% of VOCs respectively. Of the eight sources (companies), the highest emission value from a single source was 233,222.94 kg/yr and the lowest single source emission value was 6881.87 kg/yr. The total VOCs emissions estimated for each of the eight sources were found to be higher than the standard level of 40,000 kg/yr per source for minor source according to US EPA except for two sources, which were emitting VOCs below the standard level. The annual emissions per single source for each of the VOCs were found to be below the US EPA emissions standard which is 2,000~kg/yr in all companies except the emission of hexane from company F1 which was slightly higher than the standard. The type of tanks used seems to significantly influence the emission rate. Vertical fixed roof tanks (VFRT) emit a lot more than externally floating roof tanks (EFRT) and internally floating roof tanks (IFRT). The use of IFRT and EFRT should be encouraged especially for storage of petrol which had highest atmospheric emission contribution. Model predicted atmospheric emissions are less than annual losses measured by companies in all the eight sources. It is possible that there are other routes for losses beside atmospheric emissions. It is therefore important that waste reduction efforts in these companies are directed not only to reducing atmospheric emissions, but also prevention of the spillage and leakage of stored liquid and curbing of the frequently reported illegal siphoning of stored products. Emission rates for benzene, toluene, and xylene were used as input to CALPUFF air dispersion model for the calculation of spatial downwind concentrations from area sources. By using global positioning system (GPS) and geographical information system (GIS) the spatial benzene concentration contributed by organic liquid storage tanks has been mapped for Dar-es-Salaam City. Highest concentrations for all the three toxic pollutants were observed at Kigamboni area, possibly because the area is located at the wind prevailing direction from the locations of the storage tanks. The model predicted concentrations downwind from the sources were below tolerable concentrations by WHO and US-OSHA. The highest 24 hrs averaging time benzene concentration was used for risk assessment in order to determine maximum carcinogenic risk amongst the population exposed at downwind. Established risk for adult and children at 2.9×10^-3 and 1.9×10^-3 respectively, are higher than the acceptable US-EPA risk of 1×10^-6. It is very likely that the actual VOCs concentrations in some urban areas in Tanzania including Dar-es-Salaam City are much higher than the levels reported in this study when other sources such as petrol stations and motor vehicles on the roads are considered. Tanzania Government therefore need to put in place: an air quality policy and legislation, establish air quality guidelines and acquire facilities which will enable the implementation of air quality monitoring and management programmes.     

Application of multimedia exposure assessment to drinking water

A potentially important exposure route for humans is the ingestion of chemicals via drinking water. If comprehensive exposure assessments are to be completed for either existing or proposed new chemicals and cost effective control strategies developed, then a quantitative understanding of multimedia transport and fate of specific chemical pollutants must be achieved. Mathematical models provide a powerful framework into which quantitative relationships may be placed to provide guidance in reaching water quality goals. Existing, state-of-the-art media-specific toxic organic transport and fate models for atmospheric (DiDOT), land surface (NPS) and surface water processes (EXAMS) and potable water treatment (WTP) have been linked to demonstrate the technical feasibility of such an approach. Limited application and sensitivity testing of this linked modeling system has shown that the impact of various source loadings and control strategies on drinking water quality can be estimated.     

Spatial pattern and heterogeneity of soil organic carbon and nitrogen in sand dunes related to vegetation change and geomorphic position in Horqin Sandy Land, Northern China

To assesses the effect of geomorphology, topography, and vegetation changes on spatial pattern of soil organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N) in sand dunes, we used the quantitative methods to examine the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation cover, soil organic C, and total N in an 11-year naturally restored mobile dune (RMD11) and a 20-year naturally restored mobile dune (RMD20) that had been fenced to exclude grazing in Horqin Sandy Land, northern China. Our results showed that the vegetation cover, plant density, species number and diversity, soil organic C, and total N increased from RMD11 to RMD20 and increased from the 50 × 50-m plot (crest) to the 100 × 100-m plot (slope) in each dune. Geostatistical analysis showed that the spatial structural variance accounted for the largest proportion of the total sample variance in vegetation cover, soil organic C, and total N in each dune plot. Calculated spatial autocorrelation ranges of vegetation cover, soil organic C, and total N increased from RMD11 to RMD20, indicating that longer time since vegetation restoration results in a more homogeneous distribution of vegetation cover, soil organic C, and total N in sand dunes. In addition, the spatial continuity of vegetation cover, soil organic C, and total N decreased from the 50 × 50-m plot (crest) to the 100 × 100-m plot (slope) in each dune. These results suggest that the spatial distribution of soil organic C and total N in sand dunes is associated closely with geomorphic position related to the dune crest and slope, relative elevation of sampling site, and vegetation cover. Understanding the principles of this relationship between them may guide strategies for the conservation and management of semiarid dune ecosystems.     

Empirical evaluation of spatial and non-spatial European-scale multimedia fate models: results and implications for chemical risk assessment

Multimedia environmental fate models are commonly-applied tools for assessing the fate and distribution of contaminants in the environment. Owing to the large number of chemicals in use and the paucity of monitoring data, such models are often adopted as part of decision-support systems for chemical risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of three multimedia environmental fate models (spatially- and non-spatially-explicit) at a European scale. The assessment was conducted for four polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and compared predicted and median observed concentrations using monitoring data collected for air, water, sediments and soils. Model performance in the air compartment was reasonable for all models included in the evaluation exercise as predicted concentrations were typically within a factor of 3 of the median observed concentrations. Furthermore, there was good correspondence between predictions and observations in regions that had elevated median observed concentrations for both spatially-explicit models. On the other hand, all three models consistently underestimated median observed concentrations in sediment and soil by 1-3 orders of magnitude. Although regions with elevated median observed concentrations in these environmental media were broadly identified by the spatially-explicit models, the magnitude of the discrepancy between predicted and median observed concentrations is of concern in the context of chemical risk assessment. These results were discussed in terms of factors influencing model performance such as the steady-state assumption, inaccuracies in emission estimates and the representativeness of monitoring data.     

Spatial Analysis of Volatile Organic Compounds from a Community-Based Air Toxics Monitoring Network in Deer Park,Texas, USA

In the summer of 2003, ambient air concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were measured at 12 sites within a 3-km radius in Deer Park, Texas near Houston. The purpose of the study was to assess local spatial influence of traffic and other urban sources and was part of a larger investigation of VOC spatial and temporal heterogeneity influences in selected areas of Houston. Seventy 2-h samples were collected using passive organic vapor monitors. Most measurements of 13 VOC species were greater than the method detection limits. Samplers were located at 10 residential sites, a regulatory air monitoring station, and a site located at the centroid of the census tract in which the regulatory station was located. For residential sites, sampler placement locations (e. g., covered porch vs. house eaves) had no effect on concentration with the exception of methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE). Relatively high correlations (Pearson r > 0.8) were found between toluene, ethylbenzene, and o,m,p-xylenes suggesting petroleum-related influence. Chloroform was not correlated with these species or benzene (Pearson r < 0.35) suggesting a different source influence, possibly from process-related activities. As shown in other spatial studies, wind direction relative to source location had an effect on VOC concentrations.     

An Analytical Solution to Model Aquaculture Wetlands Subject to Intermittent Loading and Variable Initial Concentrations

Constructed wetlands are increasingly being used to treat intermittent releases of wastewaters from aquaculture ponds. Most constructed wetland design protocols are based on steady-state releases and as such are incapable of characterizing transient pollutant distribution arising from intermittent releases. Given the seasonal nature of aquaculture operations, the constructed wetland has to be developed using water from other nearby sources (termed as fill water in this study). In some instances, the pollutant concentrations in the fill water are noted to be greater than that measured in the aquaculture ponds. Also, the pollutants in the wetland may exhibit spatial variability due to geochemical interactions with wetland soils. These effects cannot be captured with existing steady-state design schemes. A mathematical model based on the tanks-in-series conceptualization is developed to overcome the aforementioned limitations. An analytical solution for multiple intermittent releases and spatially varying initial concentrations is obtained using Laplace transform and superposition techniques. The utility of the developed model is illustrated using an example based after a constructed wetland at the Loma Alta Shrimp Aquaculture Facility (LASAF) in South Texas. The developed model captures the extremely nonlinear relationship between the maximum discharge concentration and the hydraulic residence time. For the conditions assumed in this study, the extent of mixing is not of major concern when the spacing between the loadings is greater than 0.75 times the hydraulic residence time (HRT). Model results also suggest that the wetland should be oriented in a manner such that the internal geochemical production of the pollutant, if any, is near the inlet.     

有机污染物环境逸度模型构建及软件化

目前研究人员已经可以通过建立模型来评估有机物的环境风险并研究其在多介质环境中的迁移与转化。针对多介质逸度模型中的参数繁多,不利于研究人员模拟有机污染物的归趋状况的问题,现基于Ⅲ级多介质环境逸度模型,采用Python编程语言进行软件设计,完成有机物在环境各介质中的分布模拟功能,并在此基础上集成参数灵敏度和模型不确定度分析功能,且对用户提供了友好的图形界面。以北京地区地表水环境中的药物和个人护理品（PPCPs）为例,研究结果表明该软件得到的模拟值与实测值有较好的吻合度,可为有机物的区域环境污染和风险评估提供参考。     

多介质模型在海湾突发性有机污染中的应用及案例分析

为弥补海洋环境监测能力不足,利用受潮汐动力控制海湾中的多介质模型,预测突发性污染发生后海洋环境中污染物的浓度变化信息,并对突发性污染物的迁移转化进行了计算.模型中使用逸度方法和质量平衡算法,预测非挥发性有机物在水、沉积物和鱼中的浓度.在象山港的应用结果表明,该模型可较快速地给出污染物在不同介质中的浓度变化信息,为环境监...     

Modelling the dispersion of treated wastewater in a shallow coastal wind-driven environment,Geographe Bay,Western Australia: implications for environmental management

Numerical models are useful for predicting the transport and fate of contaminants in dynamic marine environments, and are increasingly a practical solution to environmental impact assessments. In this study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and field data were used to validate a far-field dispersion model that, in turn, was used to determine the fate of treated wastewater (TWW) discharged to the ocean via a submarine ocean outfall under hypothetical TWW flows. The models were validated with respect to bottom and surface water current speed and direction, and in situ measurements of total nitrogen and faecal coliforms. Variations in surface and bottom currents were accurately predicted by the model as were nutrient and coliform concentrations. Results indicated that the ocean circulation was predominately wind driven, evidenced by relatively small oscillations in the current speeds along the time-scale of the tide, and that dilution mixing zones were orientated in a predominantly north-eastern direction from the outfall and parallel to the coastline. Outputs of the model were used to determine the ‘footprint’ of the TWW plume under a differing discharge scenario and, particularly, whether the resultant changes in TWW contaminants, total nitrogen and faecal coliforms would meet local environmental quality objectives (EQO) for ecosystem integrity, shellfish harvesting and primary recreation. Modelling provided a practical solution for predicting the dilution of contaminants under a hypothetical discharge scenario and a means for determining the aerial extent of exclusion zones, where the EQOs for shellfish harvesting and primary recreation may not always be met. Results of this study add to the understanding of regional discharge conditions and provide a practical case study for managing impacts to marine environments under a differing TWW discharge scenario, in comparison to an existing scenario.     

Radioactive Contamination Control by Atmospheric Dispersion Assessment of Airborne Indicator Contaminants: Numerical Model Validation

In this work, a numerical model is proposed to estimate air concentration of released airborne radioactive contaminants ¹³¹I and ¹³⁷Cs. A Gaussian dispersion model is used to assess the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive contaminants released continuously from a nuclear power plant as a result of an accident. The model uses various input parameters such as source height, release rate, stability class, wind speed, and wind direction. The validation of the model was carried out by comparing its predicted values with published experimental data. The model was extensively tested by simulating several accidental situations. The main conclusion drawn from these tests is that for large downwind distances from the release point, the contaminant concentrations predicted by the model diverge drastically from measured data, while for short distances, the predicted values generally agree quite well with experimental data. The obtained activity concentrations range from 1.57?×?10² to 6.43?×?10³ Bq/m³ for ¹³¹I and from 3.18?×?10^?2 to 9.72?×?10² Bq/m³ for ¹³⁷Cs. The estimated standard deviation coefficients values range of 7.2 to 6847.7 m, and the maximum absolute error predicted by the model for these parameters was less than 5%.     

Modelling of lindane transport in groundwater of metropolitan city Vadodara,Gujarat, India

Migration pattern of organochloro pesticide lindane has been studied in groundwater of metropolitan city Vadodara. Groundwater flow was simulated using the groundwater flow model constructed up to a depth of 60 m considering a three-layer structure with grid size of 40?×?40?×?40 m³. The general groundwater flow direction is from northeast to south and southwest. The river Vishwamitri and river Jambua form natural hydrologic boundary. The constant head in the north and south end of the study area is taken as another boundary condition in the model. The hydraulic head distribution in the multilayer aquifer has been computed from the visual MODFLOW groundwater flow model. TDS has been computed though MT3D mass transport model starting with a background concentration of 500 mg/l and using a porosity value of 0.3. Simulated TDS values from the model matches well with the observed data. Model MT3D was run for lindane pesticide with a background concentration of 0.5?μg/l. The predictions of the mass transport model for next 50 years indicate that advancement of containment of plume size in the aquifer system both spatially and depth wise as a result of increasing level of pesticide in river Vishwamitri. The restoration of the aquifer system may take a very long time as seen from slow improvement in the groundwater quality from the predicted scenarios, thereby, indicating alarming situation of groundwater quality deterioration in different layers. It is recommended that all the industries operating in the region should install efficient effluent treatment plants to abate the pollution problem.     

A Model for Simulating the Soil Organic Carbon Pool of Steppe Ecosystems

In this research, the improved Terrestrial Ecosystem Regional (TECO-R) model was adapted to steppe ecosystems and then utilized to simulate the soil organic carbon pool in the period from 1989 to 2011 (excluding 1994, 2002, 2009, and 2010) for a typical steppe in Xilingol League of Inner Mongolia in China. The improved TECO-R model is an ecological model in combination of remote sensing data, which allows the spatial scale for the analysis of soil organic carbon which is not limited to vegetation or soil type. The spatial and temporal resolution advantages of remote sensing image can be well utilized in this model. The results indicate that in addition to an accurate simulation of the soil carbon pool of a steppe ecosystem, the vegetation aboveground carbon pool, grazing intensity of herbivores, mowing coefficient, litter carbon pool, root carbon pools of different vegetation layers, root-shoot ratio, actual residence time of different carbon pools, and allocation coefficients of different carbon pools in corresponding years are also available from the TECO-R model. Some of the above data are difficult to obtain through macro-observation but can be simulated with the TECO-R model by combining the model with input data; this is very important for a correct understanding of the feedback relationships between the steppe ecosystem’s carbon cycle and climate change (e.g., global warming) and human activities such as grazing.     

Simultaneous quantification of Bi(III) and U(VI) in environmental water samples with a complicated matrix containing organic compounds

Trace amounts of bismuth(III) and uranium(VI) can be simultaneously determined in a single scan by adsorptive cathodic stripping voltammetry in the presence of cupferron as a complexing agent. Optimal conditions were found to be: 0.1 mol?L^?1 acetate buffer (pH 5.3), 5?×?10^?5?mol?L^?1 cupferron, accumulation potential of ?0.25 V, and accumulation time of 30 s. The linear range of Bi(III) and U(VI) was observed over the concentration range from 2?×?10^?9 to 2?×?10^?7?mol?L^?1 and from 1?×?10^?8 to 5?×?10^?7?mol?L^?1, respectively. The influence of the main components of real water samples such as foreign ions and organic substances (surface active substances, humic substances) was precisely investigated. The method was applied to the simultaneous measurements of bismuth and uranium in natural water samples.     

GC estimation of organic hydrocarbons that threaten shallow Quaternary sandy aquifer Northwestern Gulf of Suez,Egypt

Soil and groundwater contamination is one of the important environmental problems at petroleum-related sites, which causes critical environmental and health defects. Severe petroleum hydrocarbon contamination from coastal refinery plant was detected in a shallow Quaternary sandy aquifer is bordered by Gulf in the Northwestern Gulf of Suez, Egypt. The overall objective of this investigation is to estimate the organic hydrocarbons in shallow sandy aquifers, released from continuous major point-source of pollution over a long period of time (91 years ago). This oil refinery contamination resulted mainly in the improper disposal of hydrocarbons and produced water releases caused by equipment failures, vandalism, and accidents that caused direct groundwater pollution or discharge into the gulf. In order to determine the fate of hydrocarbons, detailed field investigations were made to provide intensive deep profile information. Eight composite randomly sediment samples from a test plot were selected for demonstration. The tested plot was 50 m long?×?50 m wide?×?70 cm deep. Sediment samples were collected using an American auger around the point 29° 57′ 33″ N and 32° 30′ 40″ E in 2012 and covered an area of 2,500 m² which represents nearly 1/15 of total plant area (the total area of the plant is approximately 3.250 km²). The detected total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPHs) were 2.44, 2.62, 4.54, 4.78, 2.83, 3.22, 2.56, and 3.13 wt%, respectively. TPH was calculated by differences in weight and subjected to gas chromatography (GC). Hydrocarbons were analyzed on Hewlett–Packard (HP-7890 plus) gas chromatograph equipped with a flame ionization detector (FID). The percentage of paraffine of the investigated TPH samples was 7.33, 7.24, 7.58, 8.25, 10.25, 9.89, 14.77, and 17.53 wt%, respectively.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils along the coastal and estuarine areas of the northern Bohai and Yellow Seas, China

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and their health risks in surface soils (n?=?31) collected from coastal and estuarine areas of the northern Bohai and Yellow Seas (CEANBYS), China, were investigated. Total concentrations of PAHs ranged from 6.6?×?10¹ to 9.2?×?10²?ng?g^?1 dry weight, with an average of 3.1?×?10²?ng?g^?1 dw. The locations where greater concentrations of PAHs were observed were all near factories emitting black smoke or on the edge of the urban areas. These observations are consistent with concentrations of PAHs in soils being influenced by human activities, especially industrialization and urbanization. Concentrations of PAHs were significantly correlated with concentrations of organic carbon in soils. The patterns of relative concentrations and types of PAHs observed as well as knowledge of the potential sources were consistent with the primary sources of PAHs in soils of the CEANBYS being derived from the pyrolytic processes such as combustion of fossil fuel. The incremental lifetime cancer risks of exposing to PAHs for child, youth, and adult were 1.6?×?10^?6, 1.2?×?10^?6, and 1.9?×?10^?6.     

Tracing the fate of PCBs in forest ecosystems

Forests were shown to play an important role in influencing atmospheric concentrations and transport of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment. World forests cover more than 4 billion hectares and contain up to 80% of the above ground organic carbon. Given the lipophilic nature of POPs, this suggests that forests can influence the environmental fate of POPs at a global scale. POP accumulation in forest canopies still presents points of concern given the complexity of these ecosystems. In particular, the role of ecological parameters such as LAI (leaf area index) and SLA (specific leaf area) and their dynamics during the growing season was not sufficiently investigated yet. This paper reviews, compares and interprets a unique case study in which air and leaf concentrations and deposition fluxes for selected polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in three different forest types exposed to the same air masses. In order to trace the air-leaf-soil path of these compounds, a dynamic model of POP accumulation into forest canopy was applied. The dynamics of the canopy biomass strongly affected the trend of leaf concentration with time. Growth dilution effect can prevent the more chlorinated compounds from reaching the partitioning equilibrium before litter fall, while the more volatile compounds can approach equilibrium in the range of few weeks. An amount of up to 60 ng of PCBs per square metre of ground surface was predicted to be stored in each of the selected forests at fully developed canopy. Dry gaseous deposition fluxes to forest canopy were estimated to reach a maximum value of about 0.5-1.5 ng m(-2) d(-1) during the spring period.     

Predicting climate change effects on surface soil organic carbon of Louisiana,USA

This study aimed to assess the degree of potential temperature and precipitation change as predicted by the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) climate model for Louisiana, and to investigate the effects of potential climate change on surface soil organic carbon (SOC) across Louisiana using the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) and GIS techniques at the watershed scale. Climate data sets at a grid cell of 0.5°?×?0.5° for the entire state of Louisiana were collected from the HadCM3 model output for three climate change scenarios: B2, A2, and A1F1, that represent low, higher, and even higher greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Geo-referenced datasets including USDA-NRCS Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO), USGS Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), and the Louisiana watershed boundary data were gathered for SOC calculation at the watershed scale. A soil carbon turnover model, RothC, was used to simulate monthly changes in SOC from 2001 to 2100 under the projected temperature and precipitation changes. The simulated SOC changes in 253 watersheds from three time periods, 2001–2010, 2041–2050, and 2091–2100, were tested for the influence of the land covers and emissions scenarios using SAS PROC GLIMMIX and PDMIX800 macro to separate Tukey-Kramer (p?p?p?p?相似文献