Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.     

Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount

Emissions trading in the European Union (EU), covering the least uncertain emission sources of greenhouse gas emission inventories (CO₂ from combustion and selected industrial processes in large installations), began in 2005. During the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012), the emissions trading between Parties to the Protocol will cover all greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆) and sectors (energy, industry, agriculture, waste, and selected land-use activities) included in the Protocol. In this paper, we estimate the uncertainties in different emissions trading schemes based on uncertainties in corresponding inventories. According to the results, uncertainty in emissions from the EU15 and the EU25 included in the first phase of the EU emissions trading scheme (2005–2007) is ±3% (at 95% confidence interval relative to the mean value). If the trading were extended to CH₄ and N₂O, in addition to CO₂, but no new emissions sectors were included, the tradable amount of emissions would increase by only 2% and the uncertainty in the emissions would range from −4 to +8%. Finally, uncertainty in emissions included in emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol was estimated to vary from −6 to +21%. Inclusion of removals from forest-related activities under the Kyoto Protocol did not notably affect uncertainty, as the volume of these removals is estimated to be small.     

National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Understanding Uncertainties versus Potential for Improving Reliability

We investigated the Austrian national greenhouse gas emission inventory to review the reliability and usability of such inventories. The overall uncertainty of the inventory (95% confidence interval) is just over 10% of total emissions, with nitrous oxide (N₂O) from soils clearly providing the largest impact. Trend uncertainty – the difference between 2 years – is only about five percentage points, as important sources like soil N₂O are not expected to show different behavior between the years and thus exhibit a high covariance. The result is very typical for industrialized countries – subjective decisions by individuals during uncertainty assessment are responsible for most of the discrepancies among countries. Thus, uncertainty assessment cannot help to evaluate whether emission targets have been met. Instead, a more rigid emission accounting system that allows little individual flexibility is proposed to provide harmonized evaluation uninfluenced by the respective targets. Such an accounting system may increase uncertainty in terms of greenhouse gas fluxes to the atmosphere. More importantly, however, it will decrease uncertainty in intercountry comparisons and thus allow for fair burden sharing. Setting of post-Kyoto emission targets will require the independent evaluation of achievements. This can partly be achieved by the validation of emission inventories and thorough uncertainty assessment.     

Practical Policy Applications of Uncertainty Analysis for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

International policy makers and climate researchers use greenhouse gas emissions inventory estimates in a variety of ways. Because of the varied uses of the inventory data, as well as the high uncertainty surrounding some of the source category estimates, considerable effort has been devoted to understanding the causes and magnitude of uncertainty in national emissions inventories. In this paper, we focus on two aspects of the rationale for quantifying uncertainty: (1) the possible uses of the quantified uncertainty estimates for policy (e.g., as a means of adjusting inventories used to determine compliance with international commitments); and (2) the direct benefits of the process of investigating uncertainties in terms of improving inventory quality. We find that there are particular characteristics that an inventory uncertainty estimate should have if it is to be used for policy purposes: (1) it should be comparable across countries; (2) it should be relatively objective, or at least subject to review and verification; (3) it should not be subject to gaming by countries acting in their own self-interest; (4) it should be administratively feasible to estimate and use; (5) the quality of the uncertainty estimate should be high enough to warrant the additional compliance costs that its use in an adjustment factor may impose on countries; and (6) it should attempt to address all types of inventory uncertainty. Currently, inventory uncertainty estimates for national greenhouse gas inventories do not have these characteristics. For example, the information used to develop quantitative uncertainty estimates for national inventories is often based on expert judgments, which are, by definition, subjective rather than objective, and therefore difficult to review and compare. Further, the practical design of a potential factor to adjust inventory estimates using uncertainty estimates would require policy makers to (1) identify clear environmental goals; (2) define these goals precisely in terms of relationships among important variables (such as emissions estimate, commitment level, or statistical confidence); and (3) develop a quantifiable adjustment mechanism that reflects these environmental goals. We recommend that countries implement an investigation-focused (i.e., qualitative) uncertainty analysis that will (1) provide the type of information necessary to develop more substantive, and potentially useful, quantitative uncertainty estimates-regardless of whether those quantitative estimates are used for policy purposes; and (2) provide information needed to understand the likely causes of uncertainty in inventory data and thereby point to ways to improve inventory quality (i.e., accuracy, transparency, completeness, and consistency).     

油气生产过程中放空燃烧气的检测与回收利用现状

本文对油气生产中放空燃烧气的检测方法进行了总结,并对国内外放空气回收利用的主要技术进行了比较分析。指出:利用遥感监测数据计算放空燃烧气量具有较好的应用前景,但需同地面常规实测数据结合,改进反演算法,以减少不确定性;采用油气混输、天然气发电、压缩天然气（CNG）、液化天然气（LNG）、液态产品转化等回收利用手段将显著减少放空燃烧气带来的温室气体排放。     

Determination of first-order landfill gas modeling parameters and uncertainties

Using first-order kinetic empirical models to estimate landfill gas (LFG) generation and collection rates is well recognized in the literature. The uncertainty in the estimated LFG generation rates is a major challenge in evaluating performance of LFG collection and LFG to energy facilities. In this investigation, four methods for quantifying first-order LFG generation model parameters, methane generation potential, L₀, and methane generation rate constant, k, were evaluated. It was found that the model is insensitive to the approach taken in quantifying the parameters. However, considering the recognition of using the model in the literature, the optimum method to estimate L₀ and k is to determine L₀ using disposed municipal solid waste composition and laboratory component specific methane potential values. The k value can be selected by model fitting and regression using the first-order model if LFG collection data are available. When such data are not available, k can be selected from technical literature, based on site conditions. For five Florida case-study landfills L₀ varied from 56 to 77 m³ Mg⁻¹, and k varied from 0.04 to 0.13 yr⁻¹ for the traditional landfills and was 0.10 yr⁻¹ for the wet cell. Model predictions of LFG collection rates were on average lower than actual collection. The uncertainty (coefficient of variation) in modeled LFG generation rates varied from ±11% to ±17% while landfills were open, ±9% to ±18% at the end of waste placement, and ±16% to ±203% 50 years after waste placement ended.     

Processing National CO2 Inventory Emissions Data and their Total Uncertainty Estimates

The uncertainty of reported greenhouse gases emission inventories obtained by the aggregation of partial emissions from all sources and estimated to date for several countries is very high in comparison with the countries’ emissions limitation and reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Independent calculation of the estimates could confirm or question the undertainty estimates values obtained thus far. One of the aims of this paper is to propose statistical signal processing methods to enable calculation of the inventory variances. The annual reported emissions are used and temporal smoothness of the emissions curve is assumed. The methods considered are: a spline-function-smoothing procedure; a time-varying parameter model; and the geometric Brownian motion model. These are validated on historical observations of the CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The estimates of variances obtained are in a similar range to those obtained from national inventories using TIER1 or TIER2. Additionally, some regularities in the observed curves were noticed.     

Modification of Soil Solid Aluminium Phases During an Extreme Experimental Acidification of A Horizons of Forest Soils from Southwest Europe

Four umbric A horizons from acid forest soils were acidified in a batch type experiment and its effect in the Al pools of the solid phase analysed by means of selective dissolution methods. The results showed that Al release accounted for the consumption of 85–99% of the added protons, and causes a decrease of 2–33% of the ‘reactive’ Al pool of the soil solid phase. In these A horizons, inorganic non-crystalline Al and high stability Al-humus complexes are the main sources of the dissolved Al. The contribution of the complexes with intermediate stability only was relevant in the more acid horizon developed from phyllites (P18-A). The increase of equilibration time from 96 to 720 h did not caused significant differences in the decrease of the ‘reactive’ Al pool suggesting the acid neutralising reactions occurred in less than 96 h. In most cases the quantity of released Al is in agreement with the decrease of the different reactive Al pools of the solid phase.     

The Impact of Uncertainty on Banking Behavior: Evidence from the US Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Allowance Trading Program

In this paper, we study empirically whether uncertainty has an influence on trade in the US sulfur dioxide allowances market. In particular, we investigate the role of uncertainty on banking behavior. To do this, we introduce a tractable, structural model of trading permits under uncertainty. The model establishes a relation between banking behavior and risk preferences, especially prudence in the Kimball (1990) sense. We then test this model using data on allowances, for utilities submitted to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Acid Rain Program, carried over from one year to the next. Evidence is found of imprudence, namely, utilities bank permits in order to favor higher profits. Another finding is that larger utilities do not adopt behavior significantly different from that of smaller ones. This paper was presented at the “International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Verification, Compliance & Trading” in Warsaw, Poland, September 2004, under the title “Portfolio Management of Emissions Permits and Prudence Behavior.”     

Waste plastics recycling by an entrained-flow gasifier

We studied an entrained-flow gasification process which efficiently converts waste plastics to energy at a high energy recovery rate. Waste plastics, after being shredded to <8 mm or <14 mm, were fed into an entrained-flow gasifier with air and oxygen. In the gasifier, organic substances were pyrolyzed, partially combusted, and then converted into synthetic gas (CO, H₂) at a high temperature (over 1600 K). The clarified gasification characteristics were that the lower heat value (LHV) of the product gas was over 4.2 MJ/Nm³ and the cold gas efficiency was approximately 60%. Other inert substances in the wastes such as ashes and metals were melted into slag and condensed on bag filters. The bag filters and a water scrubber removed impurities such as dusts, heavy metals, and hydrogen halides from the product gases. Solid hydrocarbons, which include char and soot, were removed at a hot cyclone and on the bag filters. Received: July 19, 2000 / Accepted: October 3, 2000     

Environmental assessment of biodegradable multilayer film derived from carbohydrate polymers

Multilayer films exhibit excellent properties for food packaging. However, existing products are not biodegradable. Conventional plastics, manufactured from fossil fuels, not only consume non-renewable and finite resources, but also impact heavily on waste disposal. For this reason, a new multilayer film has been developed in the Multibio Project for the production of food packaging. In this paper, the environmental impacts of the new biodegradable multilayer film—based on modified starch and polylactic acid (PLA)—and those of the conventional multilayer film—based on PP and PA6—are quantified in the categories of climate change, fossil fuel depletion, acidification and eutrophication. Conventional multilayer film has a 90% higher impact than the Multibio multilayer film. The main difference between the LCA presented and the cited literature is the inventory data obtained in the phase of polymer processing to obtain multilayer film, and the assessment of the disposal phase of the multilayer film wastes.     

Pyrolysis and gasification of meat-and-bone-meal: Energy balance and GHG accounting

Meat-and-bone-meal (MBM) produced from animal waste has become an increasingly important residual fraction needing management. As biodegradable waste is routed away from landfills, thermo-chemical treatments of MBM are considered promising solution for the future. Pyrolysis and gasification of MBM were assessed based on data from three experimental lab and pilot-scale plants. Energy balances were established for the three technologies, providing different outcomes for energy recovery: bio-oil was the main product for the pyrolysis system, while syngas and a solid fraction of biochar were the main products in the gasification system. These products can be used – eventually after upgrading – for energy production, thereby offsetting energy production elsewhere in the system. Greenhouse gases (GHG) accounting of the technologies showed that all three options provided overall GHG savings in the order of 600–1000 kg CO₂-eq. per Mg of MBM treated, mainly as a consequence of avoided fossil fuel consumption in the energy sector. Local conditions influencing the environmental performance of the three systems were identified, together with critical factors to be considered during decision-making regarding MBM management.     

The potential environmental gains from recycling waste plastics: Simulation of transferring recycling and recovery technologies to Shenyang, China

With the increasing attention on developing a low-carbon economy, it is necessary to seek appropriate ways on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through innovative municipal solid waste management (MSWM), such as urban symbiosis. However, quantitative assessments on the environmental benefits of urban symbiosis, especially in developing countries, are limited because only a limited number of planned synergistic activities have been successful and it is difficult to acquire detailed inventory data from private companies. This paper modifies and applies a two-step simulation system and used it to assess the potential environmental benefits, including the reduction of GHG emissions and saving of fossil fuels, by employing various Japanese plastics recycling/energy-recovery technologies in Shenyang, China. The results showed that among various recycling/energy-recovery technologies, the mechanical waste plastics recycling technology, which produces concrete formwork boards (NF boards), has the greatest potential in terms of reducing GHG emissions (1.66 kg CO₂e/kg plastics), whereas the technology for the production of refuse plastic fuel (RPF) has the greatest potential on saving fossil fuel consumption (0.77 kgce/kg-plastics). Additional benefits can be gained by applying combined technologies that cascade the utilization of waste plastics. Moreover, the development of clean energy in conjunction with the promotion of new waste plastics recycling programs could contribute to additional reductions in GHG emissions and fossil fuel consumption.     

Setting Site Specific Critical Loads: An Approach using Endorsement Theory and Dempster–Shafer

There is an increasing demand from conservation agencies for site-specific critical loads (CL); unfortunately, there is often very little specific information on a site to determine the important parameters needed to calculate the CL or on the spatial location of the “designated feature” in a site. Determining the most appropriate CL therefore involves using expert judegement to make decisions with incomplete and uncertain information. Endorsement Theory (Cohen, 1985) and Dempster–Shafer statistics (Dempster, 1967; Shafer, 1976) are, respectively, a decision-theoretic and a statistical technique for reasoning under those conditions (uncertainty and incompletness). A key reason for applying these techniques is that they make expert opinion explicit and available for scrutiny. Both techniques have been applied to the problem of setting an appropriate site specific CL, using heathland sites as a case study. Inital findings are encouraging; the uncertainty in expert judgement is made explict, the end results are intuitively reasonable and the methodology apparently acceptable to decision makers.     

Evaluation of the effect of automotive bumper recycling by life-cycle inventory analysis

This paper describes a case study of the application of life-cycle inventory analysis to automotive bumper recycling. Two scenarios of bumper recycling are compared. One is “bumper-to-bumper recycling,” in which we recycle bumpers into more bumpers. The other is “cascade recycling,” in which bumpers are recycled into different parts of a car with a lower function. Inventory analysis is applied to both these recycling scenarios by analyzing the stages of acquiring natural resources, manufacturing materials, and parts, disposal, and recycling. We chose air emission, solid waste, and fossil fuel resources as items of the inventory analysis. We quantified the effect of reductions in the environmental load by recycling bumpers, and found that reductions in the environmental load were larger with cascade recycling than with bumper-to-bumper recycling based on current conditions. Received: February 2, 2000 / Accepted: April 21, 2000     

Life-cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management alternatives with consideration of uncertainty: SIWMS development and application

This paper describes the development and application of the Stochastic Integrated Waste Management Simulator (SIWMS) model. SIWMS provides a detailed view of the environmental impacts and associated costs of municipal solid waste (MSW) management alternatives under conditions of uncertainty. The model follows a life-cycle inventory approach extended with compensatory systems to provide more equitable bases for comparing different alternatives. Economic performance is measured by the net present value. The model is verified against four publicly available models under deterministic conditions and then used to study the impact of uncertainty on Sydney’s MSW management ‘best practices’. Uncertainty has a significant effect on all impact categories. The greatest effect is observed in the global warming category where a reversal of impact direction is predicted. The reliability of the system is most sensitive to uncertainties in the waste processing and disposal. The results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty at all stages to better understand the behaviour of the MSW system.     

A Processing,Characterization and Marine Biodegradation Study of Melt-Extruded Polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) Films

A series of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA), all containing 1% nucleating agent but varying in structure, were melt-processed into films through single screw extrusion techniques. This series consisted of three polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) and three polyhydroxybutyrate-valerate (PHBV) resins with varying valerate content. Processing parameters of temperature in the barrel (165–173 °C) and chill rolls (60 °C) were optimized to obtain cast films. The gel-permeation chromatography (GPC) results showed a loss of 8–19% of the polymer’s initial molecular weight due to extrusion processing. Modulated differential scanning calorimetry (MDSC) displayed glass transition temperatures of the films ranging from −4.6 to 6.7 °C depending on the amount of crystallinity in the film. DSC data were also used to calculate the percent crystallinity of each sample and slightly higher crystallinity was observed in the PHBV series of samples. X-ray diffraction patterns did not vary significantly for any of the samples and crystallinity was confirmed with X-ray data. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) verified the glass transition trends for the films from DSC while loss modulus (E′) reported at 20 °C showed that the PHBV (3,950–3,600 MPa) had the higher E′ values than the PHB (3,500–2,698 MPa) samples. The Young’s modulus values of the PHB and PHBV samples ranged from 700 to 900 MPa and 900 to 1,500 MPa, respectively. Polarized light microscopy images revealed gel particles in the films processed through single-screw extrusion, which may have caused diminished Young’s modulus and tensile strength of these films. The PHBV film samples exhibited the greatest barrier properties to oxygen and water vapor when compared to the PHB film samples. The average oxygen transmission rate (OTR) and water vapor transmission rate (WVTR) for the PHBV samples was 247 (cc-mil/m²-day) and 118 (g-mil/m²-day), respectively; while the average OTR and WVTR for the PHB samples was 350 (cc-mil/m²-day) and 178 (g-mil/m²-day), respectively. Biodegradation data of the films in the marine environment demonstrated that all PHA film samples achieved a minimum of 70% mineralization in 40 days when run in accordance with ASTM 6691. For static and dynamic incubation experiments in seawater, microbial action resulting in weight loss as a function of time showed all samples to be highly biodegradable and correlated with the ASTM 6691 biodegradation data.     

Kinetics and Thermodynamics of Hydrolytic Depolymerization of Polyamide Waste at Various Temperature and Autogenious Pressure by High-Pressure Autoclave

Hydrolytic depolymerization of polyamide waste in water was studied using 0.5 L high pressure autoclave at temperatures of 235, 240, 245, 250 °C and at autogenious pressure 480, 500, 520, and 600 psi (pound per square inch).The reaction rate constant, energy of activation, enthalpy of activation, entropy of activation and equilibrium constant were calculated from the experimental data obtained. The maximum depolymerization (59.2%) of polyamide waste into monomer caprolactum was obtained at 250 °C and 600 psi pressure. The reaction rate constant was obtained on basis of measurement of amine value and residual weight. The depolymerization reaction was found to be pseudo first order with reaction rate constant of the order of 10⁻³ min⁻¹. The enthalpy, entropy and free energy of activation were recorded as 85.75, −0.1354 and 156.59 kJ mol⁻¹ respectively at the experimental conditions for maximum depolymerization of polyamide waste. The thermodynamic equilibrium constant for this hydrolysis reaction was found to be 2.3 × 10⁻¹⁶.     

The Effect of CTBN Concentrations on the Kinetic Parameters of Decomposition of Blends of Epoxy Resins Modified with Carboxyl-Terminated Liquid Copolymer

Diglycidyl ether of bisphenol—A (DGEBA)—based epoxy resin was blended in the ratio of 3:1 (weight basis) with cycloaliphatic epoxy (CAE) resin. The prepared blend sample was further blended with different weight percentages of carboxyl-terminated butadiene acrylonitrile copolymer (CTBN) ranging between 0 and 25 wt% with an interval of 5 wt% and cured with stiochiometric amounts of 4, 4’- diamino diphenyl sulphone (DDS) cure agent. Structural changes during blending were studied by Fourier-transform infra-red (FTIR) spectroscopic analysis. The kinetic parameters, viz., order of decomposition reaction (n), activation energy (E), pre-exponential factor (Z) and rate decomposition constant (k), for the decomposition of the samples were calculated by applying Coats-Redfern equation over thermogravimetric (TG) data. The degradation of each sample followed second-order degradation kinetics, which was calculated by Coats-Redfern equation using best-fit analysis. This was further confirmed by linear regression analysis. The validity of data was checked by t-test statistical analysis. Further, the blend sample had higher initial degradation temperature and activation energy than its respective pure epoxy resin indicating that the CTBN acted as thermal stabilizer for epoxy resin which improved the thermal stability.