The relationship of climatic and hydrological parameters to surface water quality in the lower Mekong River

The relationship between climatic, hydrological and water quality parameters of the lower Mekong River flowing through four different countries (Thailand, Cambodia, Lao PDR and Vietnam) was studied. The Mekong River Commission (MRC) secondary data of climatic and hydrological parameters included precipitation, evaporation, average air temperatures, mean water level and discharge flow. Water quality parameters consisted of TSS, NO(3)(-), PO(4)(3-), DO, pH, conductivity, Ca, Mg, Na, K, alkalinity, Cl, SO(4)(2-), Fe, TP, Si and COD. Pearson's correlation was used to determine their relationship. The results reveal that the correlations of climatic, hydrological and water quality parameters in those four countries located along the lower Mekong River had the same trend. Precipitation had fair positive correlations with mean water level (ranging 0.375-0.661), discharge flow (ranging 0.526-0.659) and mean air temperature (ranging 0.515-0.621), however had weak negative correlation with evaporation (ranging 0.169-0.468). Concerning relationship with water quality, the results show that TSS, NO(3)(-), PO(4)(3-), TP and COD had weak to fair positive correlations with precipitation, mean water level, discharge flow. However, DO, pH, conductivity, Ca, Mg, Na, K, alkalinity, Cl, SO(4)(2-) and Si had fair to strong negative correlations with all hydrological parameters. Finally, TSS, alkalinity and conductivity were proposed as sensitive water quality parameters for monitoring impacts of changing climate in the lower Mekong River.     

Measuring the effectiveness of landscape approaches to conservation and development

Landscape approaches attempt to achieve balance amongst multiple goals over long time periods and to adapt to changing conditions. We review project reports and the literature on integrated landscape approaches, and found a lack of documented studies of their long-term effectiveness. The combination of multiple and potentially changing goals presents problems for the conventional measures of impact. We propose more critical use of theories of change and measures of process and progress to complement the conventional impact assessments. Theories of change make the links between project deliverables, outputs, outcomes, and impacts explicit, and allow a full exploration of the landscape context. Landscape approaches are long-term engagements, but short-term process metrics are needed to confirm that progress is being made in negotiation of goals, meaningful stakeholder engagement, existence of connections to policy processes, and effectiveness of governance. Long-term impact metrics are needed to assess progress on achieving landscapes that deliver multiple societal benefits, including conservation, production, and livelihood benefits. Generic criteria for process are proposed, but impact metrics will be highly situation specific and must be derived from an effective process and a credible theory of change.     

An integrative negotiation model to deal with conflicts toward water resources management: a case study in Brazil

Environment, Development and Sustainability - An integrative negotiation model is proposed so that watershed committees (WSC) can deal better with conflicts over alternatives for protecting water...     

Assessing relative vulnerability to sea-level rise in the western part of the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam

The Mekong River Delta in Vietnam plays a crucial role for the region in terms of food security and socioeconomic development; however, it is one of the most low-lying and densely populated areas in the world. It is vulnerable to seawater incursion, flood risk, and shoreline change, exacerbated as a consequence of sea-level rise (SLR) related to climate change. This study examined the Kien Giang coast in the western part of the delta, comprising seven coastal districts (namely Ha Tien, Kien Luong, Hon Dat, Rach Gia, Chau Thanh, An Bien, and An Minh), the economy of which is important in terms of agriculture and aquaculture. The analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method of multi-criteria decision making was integrated directly into geographic information systems (GIS) to derive a composite vulnerability index that indicated areas most likely to be vulnerable to SLR. The hierarchical structure comprised three key components: exposure (E), sensitivity (S), and adaptive capacity (A), at level 1. At the next level, 8 sub-components were mapped: seawater incursion, flood risk, shoreline change, population characteristics, land use/land cover, and socioeconomic, infrastructure, and technological capability, beyond which a further 22 variables (level 3) and 24 sub-variables (level 4) related to vulnerability were also mapped. Variables were assigned weights for incorporation into AHP pairwise comparisons after discussion with stakeholders. Maps were generated to visualise areas where the relative vulnerability was very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Societal data were generally only available at district level; however, several regional patterns emerged. Relatively high exposure to flooding and inundation, salinity, and moderate loss of mangroves occurred along the coastal fringe of each district. This western section of the delta, which is low-lying and remote from the distributaries that carry sediment to the coast, appears to be particularly vulnerable. The most sensitive areas tended to be ethnic households engaged in rice cultivation and with moderate population density. The least adaptable areas consisted of high numbers of poor households, with low income, and moderate densities of transport, irrigation and drainage systems. Most coastal districts were determined to be moderately to relatively highly vulnerable, with scattered hotspots along the coast.     

High and low value fish chains in the Mekong Delta: challenges for livelihoods and governance

This paper investigates the structure, function and wealth distribution within the Pangasius hypophthalmus and Henicorhynchus spp./Labiobarbus spp. value chains in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. The analysis is driven by key questions relating to the form and function of value chains, their contribution to the livelihoods of farmers and fishers, the effectiveness of government policy and the potential for value chain governance mechanisms, such as contracts and certification, to steer towards sustainable production. The results indicate that actors in the high value Pangasius hypopthalmus export chain have a higher potential income, but face considerably higher economic vulnerability from global markets. Alternatively, Henichorhychus/Labiobarbus spp. fishers are severely constrained in their ability to negotiate higher prices for their fish but appear to be less vulnerable to economic and environmental change. The paper concludes that for value chain governance to improve the livelihoods of fishers and farmers in both high and low value chains, new arrangements are needed that better accommodate customary institutions and informal market relations.     

Contamination of drinking water resources in the Mekong delta floodplains: arsenic and other trace metals pose serious health risks to population

This study presents a transnational groundwater survey of the 62,000 km(2) Mekong delta floodplain (Southern Vietnam and bordering Cambodia) and assesses human health risks associated with elevated concentrations of dissolved toxic elements. The lower Mekong delta generally features saline groundwater. However, where groundwater salinity is <1 g L(-)(1) Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), the rural population started exploiting shallow groundwater as drinking water in replacement of microbially contaminated surface water. In groundwater used as drinking water, arsenic concentrations ranged from 0.1-1340 microg L(-)(1), with 37% of the studied wells exceeding the WHO guidelines of 10 microg L(-)(1) arsenic. In addition, 50% exceeded the manganese WHO guideline of 0.4 mg L(-)(1), with concentrations being particularly high in Vietnam (range 1.0-34 mg L(-)(1)). Other elements of (minor) concern are Ba, Cd, Ni, Se, Pb and U. Our measurements imply that groundwater contamination is of geogenic origin and caused by natural anoxic conditions in the aquifers. Chronic arsenic poisoning is the most serious health risk for the ~2 million people drinking this groundwater without treatment, followed by malfunction in children's development through excessive manganese uptake. Government agencies, water specialists and scientists must get aware of the serious situation. Mitigation measures are urgently needed to protect the unaware people from such health problems.     

Present to future sediment transport of the Brahmaputra River: reducing uncertainty in predictions and management

The Brahmaputra River in South Asia carries one of the world’s highest sediment loads, and the sediment transport dynamics strongly affect the region’s ecology and agriculture. However, present understanding of sediment conditions and dynamics is hindered by limited access to hydrological and geomorphological data, which impacts predictive models needed in management. We here synthesize reported peer-reviewed data relevant to sediment transport and perform a sensitivity analysis to identify sensitive and uncertain parameters, using the one-dimensional model HEC-RAS, considering both present and future climatic conditions. Results showed that there is considerable uncertainty in openly available estimates (260–720 Mt yr^?1) of the annual sediment load for the Brahmaputra River at its downstream Bahadurabad gauging station (Bangladesh). This may aggravate scientific impact studies of planned power plant and reservoir construction in the region, as well as more general effects of ongoing land use change and climate change. We found that data scarcity on sediment grain size distribution, water discharge, and Manning’s roughness coefficient had the strongest controls on the modelled sediment load. However, despite uncertainty in absolute loads, we showed that predicted relative changes, including a future increase in sediment load by about 40 % at Bahadurabad by 2075–2100, were consistent across multiple model simulations. Nevertheless, for the future scenarios we found that parameter uncertainty almost doubled for water discharge and river geometry, highlighting that improved information on these parameters could greatly advance the abilities to predict and manage current and future sediment dynamics in the Brahmaputra river basin.     

Analyzing the hydrologic effects of region-wide land and water development interventions: a case study of the Upper Blue Nile basin

In the drylands of the Upper Blue Nile basin, high climate variability and land degradation are rampant. To enhance adaptive capacity in the region, various soil and water conservation interventions have been implemented. Moreover, water resources development schemes such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam should be implemented by 2025. We modeled the effects of these interventions on surface runoff in the basin for both current and future (2025) basin conditions, using the runoff coefficient method in a spatially explicit approach. Under current conditions, we observed high spatial variability of mean annual runoff. The northeastern Blue Nile-1 sub-basin produces the highest mean annual runoff (391 mm or 10 × 10⁹ m³), whereas the northwestern Blue Nile-2 sub-basin produces the lowest mean annual runoff (178 mm or 0.2 × 10⁹ m³). The basin generates a total annual runoff volume of 47.7 × 10⁹ m³, of which about 54 % comes from cultivated land. The strong association between land use and topography masked the direct effect of rainfall on runoff. By 2025, total annual runoff yield could decrease by up to 38 % if appropriate basin-wide soil and water conservation interventions and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam are implemented. However, the full effects of most physical structures will only last for 1 or 2 years without regular maintenance. The improved understanding of the dynamics of the Upper Blue Nile basin’s hydrology provided by the present study will help planners to design appropriate management scenarios. Developing the basin’s database remains important for a holistic understanding of the impacts of future development interventions.     

Using Local Knowledge as a Research Tool in the Study of River Fish Biology: Experiences from the Mekong

River fisheries are extremely important for food-security among the rural poor in many tropical countries. The growing populations and rapid industrialisation of these countries require that appropriate action should be taken to sustain the resources for future generations. However, an incomplete understanding of river fisheries biology, at the managerial level, often hampers proper planning and management. This is partly due to the difficult access to large parts of such river basins, the complex nature of the fisheries, and in many cases a severe lack of research funds. In contrast, the thousands, or often millions of people who live along the shores of the rivers and rely on the fishery for their daily survival, have a very intimate knowledge of the behaviour and biology of the fish. In this situation, gathering the knowledge of the fishers may provide politicians or planners with baseline knowledge in a relatively quick and cheap way.This paper discusses two years of research using local knowledge in the study of fish migration and spawning in the Lower Mekong Basin. The study involves semi-structured interviews with 355 expert fishermen in four countries along 2,400 km of the Mekong mainstream. By piecing together information from fishermen in different areas, we were able to construct migration maps, and provide rough estimates of the spawning period for 50 fish species. We conclude that river fisheries research can benefit significantly from local knowledge as the basis for future research.     

An integrative approach to modeling land-use changes: multiple facets of agriculture in the Upper Yangtze basin

Land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research. Still, much remains to be learned before scientists can fully assess future roles of land-use/cover changes (LUCC) in the functioning of the Earth system and identifying conditions for sustainable land use. The objective of this paper is to gain a better understanding of the complex interactions of human and natural drivers underlying LUCC. We do so by developing and estimating a novel structural model of land use and using spatially explicit longitudinal observations from the Upper Yangtze basin of China. Our analysis focuses on the multiple dimensions of agriculture—not only cropland use itself, but also grain production, soil erosion, and related technical change—and our data cover 31 counties over four time periods from 1975 to 2000. Our results show that technical change plays an important role in supplying food on a limited cropland; limiting cropland expansion in turn reduces soil erosion, which then benefits grain production in the longer term. It is also found that policies and institutions have significant impacts on land use and the status of soil erosion. Together, these results carry some great implications to sustainable land use and ecosystem management.     

From spatial models to spatial evaluation in the analysis of wetland restoration in the Vecht river basin

Water tables are strictly controlled throughout much of the Netherlands. Higher water tables could permit the restoration of wetland ecosystems. Deriving benefits from this requires the spatial matching of physical planning, eco-hydrological processes, and economic activities. This paper reports on a study combining spatial analysis and disciplinary integration to assess management strategies for the Vecht river basin in the Netherlands. The paper addresses two research questions. How can the information generated by spatial models be condensed into performance indicators for the evaluation of strategies? How can spatial information be retained in the evaluation, and does this lead to different rankings and/or insights? Procedures for the construction of performance indicators for three criteria – net present value, environmental quality and spatial equity – are presented. The evaluation concludes that recreation and higher water tables provide a means for restoration, recouping of costs, and stimulating regional incomes. Maintenance of spatial detail led to different insights, and in particular indicated uncertainty about this conclusion.     

A review of the water resources management for the Brantas River basin: challenges in the transition to an integrated water resources management

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This paper reviews an integrated approach involving the representative stakeholders in the development and management of water available in the Brantas...     

An approach to sustainable development: the case of Cuba

This paper analyzes the Cuban model of sustainable development and explains the causes that made Cuba the only country that meets the conditions of sustainability according to the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF). The Human Development Index has three main components: quality of life (health indicator measured as life expectancy at birth), knowledge (education indicator measured as adult literacy) and the standard of life (economic indicator measured by the Gross Domestic Income). This paper analyses the aspects of the educational and health system of Cuba and also of its energy policies that explain the excellent scores of the Human Development Index. Cuba shows a Human Development Index of 0.8 with an Ecological Footprint of 1.8?gha. This is achieved with a Gross Domestic Income lower than other countries with similar Human Development Index. The Ecological Footprint of Cuba is mainly determined by the CO₂ and the agricultural land footprint. The paper shows how the economic transition, after the economic crisis of the early 1990s, was realized without significantly increasing the Ecological Footprint.     

Treating design uncertainty in the application of Eco-indicator 99 with Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy intervals

In incremental eco-design improvements, design engineers attempt to modify an existing product via some eco-design measures to reduce the product’s environmental impacts (e.g. reduction of material usage and energy consumption). In this process, several design concepts can be proposed, and concept selection is required to allocate resources sensibly to promising design concepts only. In this context, the research purpose is to estimate the environmental impacts of each concept given the uncertainty of design information. In the proposed methodology, the fuzzy interval arithmetic is used to specify and propagate imprecise design information. Then, the centroid concept is applied to model different views of imprecision (i.e. pessimistic, balanced and optimistic) associated with fuzzy impact assessment. Accordingly, a decision scheme is developed to support concept selection and suggest the potential areas for further eco-design improvements. A coffee maker is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Also, the Monte Carlo Simulation is applied for the same example to compare the numerical outcomes by the fuzzy interval approach.     

Framework for the uncertainty assessment in the impact pathway analysis with an application on a local scale in Spain

The estimation of damage estimates due to air emissions gives important basic knowledge for decision-making on the level of environmental politics and business strategies. Nowadays, a frequently applied method to estimate environmental damages is the Impact Pathway Analysis (IPA), which can be easily carried out using models such as EcoSense or PathWays. These models produce results in a relatively short term. However, there is a lack of reliability in the results. As in many other environmental software tools, the uncertainty is the key problem that makes it difficult to convince decision-makers by the outcomes of a study. Therefore, a framework that allows assessing the uncertainties within studies in which the IPA is applied on a local scale has been developed. In this assessment framework, the uncertainties of the used parameters, including their spatial and temporal variability, are taken into account. As the model is processing a huge quantity of data, one step of the assessment consists of a screening procedure to determine the parameters that are supposed to be fixed. For the other data, probability distributions have to be selected and classified into two groups: extensively available data for which average and standard deviation can be calculated and data based on little information. A quantification of the uncertainty can be completed by a stochastic model in the form of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation on the basis of the framework. As an illustration of the framework, we have applied it to a study on the installation of an advanced gas treatment in the municipal waste incinerator of Tarragona. It can be shown that the presented stochastic approach gives a lower geometric deviation than the analytical one and that the new gas treatment reduces the environmental damages without any doubt.     

Heat stress and crop yields in the Mediterranean basin: impact on expected insurance payouts

Insurance programmes have been indicated as a tool to reduce the economic risk associated with climate change, and crop growth simulation models can be used effectively to assess future trends in crop insurance payouts. This paper assesses the economic role of increasing weather extremes under future climate change on the expected insurance payouts for durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. spp. durum) over the Mediterranean basin, focusing attention on the effects of heat stresses (HSs). A crop growth simulation, Sirius Quality version 2 (SQ2), calibrated for three varieties (long, medium and short growth cycle) was applied on seven sites under present (1975–1990) and future climate conditions (2030–2050) obtained from five regional circulation models under SRES scenario A1b. The intensity of HSs at anthesis was included as reducing factor of yield originally simulated by SQ2 calculated according to a specific empirical model. Simulated yields were then fitted to the most appropriate distribution, which was used to calculate the expected payouts according to the probability of yields being below a guaranteed level. We found that the simulated crop yields were, in general, negatively skewed and that Weibull probability density function (PDF), admitting negative skewing, provided the best performances in their fitting. The simulation of HSs modified the original shape of the Weibull PDF by increasing the skewness of the distribution. The results of the insurance model indicated that the modification of crop PDFs induced by HSs led to a general increase in payouts with respect to unstressed conditions, with a marked difference between present (+11 %, on average for the selected sites) and future periods (+25 %). When compared to the present, a general decrease in payouts (?1.1 %) was observed when HSs were not included in the simulations. Conversely, HSs impact resulted in a general increase in payouts (+10.3 %) where the highest increase was detected for the long growth cycle variety (+16.6 %) and the lowest for that with short growth cycle (?1.6 %). These results emphasize the importance of the appropriate characterization of crop yield distribution, the economic implications of HSs in a risk management context and a possible strategy to cope with climate change and variability.     

Successful and sustainable governance of the lower Yellow River,China: A floodplain utilization approach for balancing ecological conservation and development

Environment, Development and Sustainability - A novel model has been proposed for the methodical development and safe utilization of the lower Yellow River floodplain to provide flood control with...