Community-based scenario planning: a process for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning to social–ecological change in coastal communities

The current and projected impacts of climate change make understanding the environmental and social vulnerability of coastal communities and the planning of adaptations important international goals and national policy initiatives. Yet, coastal communities are concurrently experiencing numerous other social, political, economic, demographic and environmental changes or stressors that also need to be considered and planned for simultaneously to maintain social and environmental sustainability. There are a number of methods and processes that have been used to study vulnerability and identify adaptive response strategies. This paper describes the stages, methods and results of a modified community-based scenario planning process that was used for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning within the context of multiple interacting stressors in two coastal fishing communities in Thailand. The four stages of community-based scenario planning included: (1) identifying the problem and purpose of scenario planning; (2) exploring the system and types of change; (3) generating possible future scenarios; and (4) proposing and prioritizing adaptations. Results revealed local perspectives on social and environmental change, participant visions for their local community and the environment, and potential actions that will help communities to adapt to the changes that are occurring. Community-based scenario planning proved to have significant potential as an anticipatory action research process for incorporating multiple stressors into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. This paper reflects on the process and outcomes to provide insights and suggest changes for future applications of community-based scenario planning that will lead to more effective learning, innovation and action in communities and related social–ecological systems.     

Extending the environmental risk assessment for oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) under pandemic use conditions to the coastal marine compartment

In case of an avian-influenza-derived human flu pandemic, an inordinately high use of medicines over several weeks is predicted, in particular for the recommended influenza antiviral oseltamivir (Tamiflu). While the risk of oseltamivir to sewage works and freshwater bodies has already been assessed, the fact that a large percentage of the human population worldwide lives relatively close to the sea raises concern for its environmental compatibility in coastal marine waters. The potential risk of high oseltamivir use to the marine compartment is assessed in this publication, based on the 2003 European Community Technical Guidance Document (TGD) for risk assessment. Subchronic embryo–larval ecotoxicity tests with three marine invertebrates (Pomatoceros triqueter, Annelida; Mytilus edulis, Mollusca; Paracentrotus lividus, Echinodermata) and chronic growth inhibition tests with two different groups of marine microalgae (Isochrysis galbana, Haptophyta; Skeletonema costatum, Heterokontophyta) were performed with the active substance oseltamivir carboxylic acid to derive a dependable marine predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC). This was compared to a predicted environmental concentration (PEC) for oseltamivir in coastal waters, based on the worst-case freshwater PEC. The PEC/PNEC risk characterisation ratio for the marine compartment is well below 1, which in the terminology of the TGD signifies no immediate concern. Further, while oseltamivir may be persistent (P), it is not bioaccumulative (B) nor highly ecotoxic (T) and therefore not a PBT substance. In conclusion, even a high pandemic use of oseltamivir would not lead to a significant risk for the marine compartment, in confirmation of the risk assessment for sewage works and freshwaters.     

Seize the Opportunity and Meet the Challenge to Push China''''s Sustainable Development Strategy to a New Stage

Since China set the sustainable development strategy, positive progress has been made in implementing the strategy, and active contributions have been made to the sustainable development of mankind. Currently, profound changes are taking place in China's internal and external situation. A new era has begun in the implementation of the sustainable development strategy. We should take full advantage of this opportunity and make use of all favorable conditions and chances to further promote the implementation of the sustainable development strategy.     

Restorating marine coastal ecosystem health as a new goad for integrated catchment management in Tolo Harbour,Hong Kong,China

The paper demonstrates why it is necessary to take the restoration of marine coastal ecosystem health as a new goal for integrated catchment management, in coastal area of the Tolo Harbour. The present goal of integrated catchment management (ICM) in the Tolo Harbour is to meet with Water Quality Objectives. The performance of an ICM plan, Tolo Harbour Action Plan (THAP), is evaluated by using marine coastal ecosystem health indicators including stress indicators and responses indicators. Since the implementation of THAP in 1988, some significant reduction in pollution loading has been observed - reduction of 83 % of BOD load and 82 % of TN between 1988 and 1999. There has been an improvement in the health state of Tolo Harbour marine coastal ecosystem as evidenced in the trends of the physical, chemical and biological indicators, although some reverse fluctuations in some periods exist. However, this can only be considered as the first sign of the ecosystem health restoration, since ecosystem health co     

Estuarine and coastal zone marine pollution by the nonionic alkylphenol ethoxylates endocrine disrupters: is there a potential ecotoxicological problem?

The nonionic biodegradation-resistant ("hard") alkylphenol ethoxylate (APEO) surfactants and their degradation products are known endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). We report here the findings concerning the APEOs concentrations and homologic distribution profiles in Israel's estuarine and coastal zone seawater to serve as a case study. The concentrations in sewage-containing rivers, estuaries and 50-60-m offshore sea (Mediterranean) water were found to be 12.5-75.1, 4.2-25.0 and 0.9-2.6 microg/L, respectively. The corresponding homologic distribution profiles were found to be within the range of 1-10% each, somewhat skewing, as expected, towards the more toxic shorter-chain ethoxylates. Egg production by zebrafish, exposed to 75, 25 and 10 microg/L of a typical industrial APEOs was reduced up to 89.6%, 84.7% and 76.9%, respectively, between the 8th and 28th days of exposure. Apparently, there is a potential APEOs-related ecotoxicological health risk problem.     

Users’ Perspectives About the Potential Usefulness of Online Storylines to Communicate River Research to a Multi-disciplinary Audience

ABSTRACT

Effective communication practices are needed to support adaptive, collaborative and integrative environmental management. We propose the use of online storylines to communicate scientific outcomes in a way that is captivating, easily understood and accessible. Based on 20 interviews, we identified important attributes for the storyline content, structure and user interaction. We designed a storyline example about stakeholders’ perceptions of a river management intervention with consequences on the landscape. The intended audience consists of multi-disciplinary researchers and practitioners that could consider or apply research solutions outside their field of expertise in river management. We introduced the example in a workshop with 14 participants from research and practice. Our findings highlight the importance of including narrative elements via images, interactive figures and timelines to illustrate the research context. Moreover, storylines should explicitly state benefits as well as the limitations of the river research and include a glossary to clarify specific terms.     

China＇s Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy： 2006-2010

China achieved major progress in low-carbon develop- ment during the period of the 11th Five Year Plan （2006-2010）. The increasing trend of energy intensity and carbon intensity of the economy as seen ...     

China’s Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy:2006-2010

China achieved major progress in low-carbon development during the period of the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010). The increasing trend of energy intensity and carbon intensity of the economy as seen prior to 2005 was reversed to a sharp decreasing trend, leading to a 19% decrease in energy intensity and 21% decrease in carbon intensity in five years. The enhanced energy efficiency, mostly due to efficiency improvement in power and manufacturing sector, is the major driver of the decrease in carbon intensity of the economy. The development of renewable energy, despite its impressive growth rate, played a minor role because of its small share in the energy mix of the country. Energy con-sumption and energy-related carbon emissions per unit of area in building continued to grow at a lesser rate, which, combined with the fast growth of total building volume, led to fast growth in total energy consumption and carbon emissions in the sector. Similar trend is observed in the transportation sector whose total energy use and carbon emissions continued to grow fast despite slight improvement in energy efficiency. Agricultural energy use experienced a slight change and forestry made a major contribution to carbon sinks. Policy and institutional innovations helped build a solid system of rules for low-carbon development. Improving cost effectiveness of the system remains a major challenge for the next five year plan period.     

Can starling eggs be useful as a biomonitoring tool to study organohalogenated contaminants on a worldwide scale?

Large-scale international monitoring studies are important to assess emission patterns and environmental distributions of organohalogenated contaminants (OHCs) on a worldwide scale. In this study, the presence of OHCs was investigated on three continents (Europe, North America and Australasia), using eggs of starlings (Sturnus vulgaris and Sturnus unicolor) to assess their suitability for large-scale monitoring studies. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study using bird eggs of the same species as a biomonitor for OHCs on an intercontinental scale. We found significant differences in OHC concentrations of the eggs among sampling locations, except for hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs). Mean concentrations of sum polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in eggs ranged from 78 ± 26 ng/g lipid weight (lw) in Australia to 2900 ± 1300 ng/g lw in the United States. The PCB profile was dominated by CB 153 and CB 138 in all locations, except for New Zealand, where the contribution of CB 95, CB 101 and CB 149 was also high. The highest mean sum polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) concentrations were found in Canada (4400 ± 830 ng/g lw), while the lowest mean PBDE concentrations were measured in Spain (3.7 ± 0.1 ng/g lw). The PBDE profile in starling eggs was dominated by BDE 47 and BDE 99 in all countries, but in Belgium, the higher brominated PBDEs had a higher contribution compared to other countries. For the organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) ranged from 110 ± 16 ng/g lw in France to 17,000 ± 3400 ng/g lw in New Zealand, while HCHs and hexachlorobenzene were generally in low concentrations in all sampling locations. Chlordanes were remarkably high in eggs from the United States (2500 ± 1300 ng/g lw). The OCP profile in all countries was largely dominated by p,p′-DDE. In general, the worldwide trends we observed in starling eggs were in accordance with the literature on human and environmental OHC data, which suggests that there is potential for using starling eggs as a biomonitoring tool on a large geographical scale.     

Heavy metal anomalies in lagoon sediments related to intensive agriculture in Altata-Ensenada del Pabellón coastal system (SE Gulf of California)

Heavy metal concentrations were examined in surface sediments from 79 sites within the Altata-Ensenada del Pabellon lagoon system. Data were normalized to separate natural from anthropogenic factors using aluminum and lithium as conservative elements and following two different discriminating criteria. For the normalization process, the natural metal concentrations were assumed to vary consistently with aluminum and lithium, unless the metal contents were of human origin. Strong linear correlations (P < .001) were observed between the conservative elements and the metals measured. According to Szefer's normalizing criteria, about 90% of the polluted sites, for at least one metal, occurred near agricultural discharge drains. In accordance with the Muller [Umschau 79 (1979) 778.] scale, this lagoon system is subject to pollutant effects only with regard to Pb (moderately to strongly polluted). It was concluded that either Al and Li could be useful to normalize granulometric variability in heavy metal studies of these lagoon sediments, and that Summers' normalization criterion proved more rigorous than Szefer's for these types of sediments.     

Contributing to shipping container security: can passive sensors bring a solution?

Illicit trafficking of fissionable material in container cargoes is recognized as a potential weakness in Nuclear Security. Triggered by the attacks of 11 September 2001, measures were undertaken to enhance maritime security in extension to the Safety Of Life At Sea Convention and in line with the US Container Security Initiatives. Effective detection techniques are needed that allow the inspector to intercept illicit trafficking of nuclear weapons components or components of other nuclear explosive devices. Many security measures focus on active interrogation of the container content by X-ray scan, which might be extended with the newly developed tagged neutron inspection system. Both active interrogation techniques can, with the current huge volume of container traffic, only be applied to a limited number of selected containers. The question arises whether a passive detection technique can offer an alternative solution. This study investigates if containers equipped with a small passive detector will register during transport the neutron irradiation by fissionable material such as plutonium in a measurable way. In practice, 4/5 of the containers are about 1/8 filled with hydrogenous material and undergo a typical 2 months route. For this reference case, it was found that the most compatible passive detector would be an activation foil of iridium. Monte-Carlo simulations showed that for the reference case the activity of a 250 μm thin foil with 6 cm² cross-section would register 1.2 Bq when it is irradiated by a significant quantity of Reactor-Grade PuO₂. However this activity drops with almost two orders of magnitude for other fillings and other isotopic compositions and forms of the Pu-source. The procedure of selecting the target material for Pu detection is detailed with the theoretical methods, in order to be useful for other applications. Moreover the value of such additional passive sensors for securing maritime container transport is situated within the global framework of the First, Second and Third Line of Defense against illicit trafficking.     

Using a functional approach to wetland valuation: the case of Zazari–Cheimaditida

This study proposes the valuation of wetland functions as an alternative to the conventional approach to wetland valuation, in order to derive indicators for decision-making in wetland management. It is illustrated that these functions can be valuated in terms of the goods and services they provide to society. Using a functional approach, the functions are identified and the goods and services they provide are explicitly allocated among them; then, the latter are valuated with the Contingent Valuation method. Statistical analysis of the data provides welfare measures that reflect the value of these functions. It is argued that the values of separate functions are more useful in policy-making than their aggregated value.

226Ra bioavailability to plants at the Urgeiriça uranium mill tailings site

Large amounts of solid wastes (tailings) resulting from the exploitation and treatment of uranium ore at the Urgeiri?a mine (north of Portugal) have been accumulated in dams (tailing ponds). To reduce the dispersion of natural radionuclides into the environment, some dams were revegetated with eucalyptus (Eucalyptus globolus) and pines (Pinus pinea). Besides these plants, some shrubs (Cytisus spp.) are growing in some of the dams. The objective of this study is to determine the 226Ra bioavailability from uranium mill tailings by quantifying the total and available fraction of radium in the tailings and to estimate its transfer to plants growing on the tailing piles. Plant and tailing samples were randomly collected and the activity concentration of 226Ra in plants (aerial part and roots) and tailings was measured by gamma-spectrometry. The exchangeable fraction of radium in tailings was quantified using one single step extraction with 1 mol dm-3 ammonium acetate (pH = 7) or 1 mol dm-3 calcium chloride solutions. The results obtained for 226Ra uptake by plants show that 226Ra concentration ratios for eucalyptus and pines decrease at low 226Ra concentrations in the tailings and appear relatively constant at higher radium concentrations. For shrubs, the concentration ratios increase at higher 226Ra solid waste concentrations approaching a saturation value. Percentage values of 16.0 +/- 8.3 and 12.9 +/- 8.9, for the fraction of radium extracted from the tailings, using 1 mol dm-3 ammonium acetate or calcium chloride solutions, respectively, were obtained. The 226Ra concentration ratios determined on the basis of exchangeable radium are one order of magnitude higher than those based on total radium. It can be concluded that, at a 95% confidence level, more consistent 226Ra concentration ratios were obtained when calculated on the basis of available radium than when total radium was considered, for all the dams.     

The use of fixatives for response to a radiation dispersal devise attack – a review of the current (2009) state-of-the-art

Radiation dispersal devices (RDDs), or dirty bombs, are terrorist weapons designed to scatter radioactive materials in large urban areas. Although the main intent of a RDD is to produce general panic and chaos, other impacts such as health, environmental, property and economical damage may also occur. Although one certain method of reducing health risks from a RDD event is to remove the radioactive contaminants from the environment immediately, rapid cleanup after a RDD event may be impossible in many cases. However, preventing the migration of the radioactive contaminant is crucial. Although it may be necessary to allow the contaminant to remain in place, preventing its migration is still essential. Fixatives can reduce or eliminating migration potential of a contaminant introduced by a RDD. This paper reviews the significance of fixatives in response to a RDD event and some of the products which have been identified for such a purpose. Many of the products are promising for application. However, many reports lack quantitative information to allow for effective comparative evaluation. Further, key parameters, such as shelf life and product toxicity, are not typically evaluated. We recommend that standardized performance parameters be established to allow for better comparative evaluation.     

Can ECOPATH with ECOSIM enhance models of radionuclide flows in food webs? An example for 14C in a coastal food web in the Baltic Sea

In this study it was evaluated whether the ECOPATH with ECOSIM software could be used as a platform to facilitate the construction of models and study of transport and accumulation of radionuclides in aquatic food webs. The evaluation was based upon a food web model of carbon (C) and carbon-14 ((14)C) flow for a coastal area in the Baltic Sea, the ECOPATH, the ECOSIM and the ECOTRACE models. The original carbon flows and assumptions were easily incorporated into the ECOPATH and ECOSIM modelling environment. The new model was also well suited to drive a (14)C flow model (ECOTRACE) for each of the organisms included. ECOTRACE estimated steady-state concentrations of (14)C that were between 73 and 142% of the original flows. The results clearly show that there is great potential for a successful development of this approach for integrating scientific knowledge about food webs and radioecological models for aquatic systems.     

Practical tools for quantitative analysis of coastal vulnerability and sea level rise impacts—application in a Caribbean island and assessment of the 1.5 °C threshold

The quantitative analysis of hurricane impacts on coastal development in the Caribbean is surprisingly infrequent and many tools to assess physical vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) are insufficient to evaluate risk in coastal areas exposed to wave attack during extreme events. This paper proposes a practical methodology to quantify coastal hazards and evaluate SLR impact scenarios in coastal areas, providing quantitative input for coastal vulnerability analysis. We illustrate the implementation of the proposed methodology with results from a site-specific analysis. We quantify how storm wave impacts penetrate farther inland and reach higher elevations for increasing SLR conditions. We also show that the increase in elevation of storm wave impacts is more than the nominal increase in mean sea level, and that elevation increase may be on the order of up to twice the nominal SLR. By developing design parameters for multiple scenarios, as opposed to the determination of a single SLR value for design established by consensus, this approach generates information that we argue encourages resilient design and embedding future adaptation in coastal design. We discuss how government planners and regulators, as well as real estate developers, lenders, and investors, can improve coastal planning and resilient design of coastal projects by using this approach.     

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

Climate variability is amongst an array of threats facing agricultural livelihoods, with its effects unevenly distributed. With resource conflict being increasingly recognised as one significant outcome of climate variability and change, understanding the underlying drivers that shape differential vulnerabilities in areas that are double-exposed to climate and conflict has great significance. Climate change vulnerability frameworks are rarely applied in water conflict research. This article presents a composite climate–water conflict vulnerability index based on a double exposure framework developed from advances in vulnerability and livelihood assessments. We apply the index to assess how the determinants of vulnerability can be useful in understanding climate variability and water conflict interactions and to establish how knowledge of the climate–conflict linked context can shape interventions to reduce vulnerability. We surveyed 240 resource users (farmers, fishermen and pastoralists) in seven villages on the south-eastern shores of Lake Chad in the Republic of Chad to collect data on a range of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity variables. Results suggest that pastoralists are more vulnerable in terms of climate-structured aggressive behaviour within a lake-based livelihoods context where all resource user groups show similar levels of exposure to climate variability. Our approach can be used to understand the human and environmental security components of vulnerability to climate change and to explore ways in which conflict-structured climate adaptation and climate-sensitive conflict management strategies can be integrated to reduce the vulnerability of populations in high-risk, conflict-prone environments.