Interactive analysis and environmental policy for mitigating the consumption of potent greenhouse gases in Taiwan

Taiwan, although not a Party to the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol, has diligently strived to advance technological and social changes for mitigating the use of potent greenhouse gases, including hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). The objective of this paper is to present an interactive analysis of HCFCs and HFCs consumptions under the regulatory framework and policy promotion in Taiwan during the period of 2000–2009. It was concluded that the consumption of HCFCs was on the significant decrease during this period because they are being replaced now by HFCs. In response, the consumption of HFCs with relatively low global warming potentials was on increasing trend from 861 t in 2000 to 2,923 t in 2009. Based on the inventory of HFCs, the most important source for the emissions of HFCs in Taiwan should be from HFC-134a, which was consistent with the East Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea. Finally, global HCFCs production and consumption was analyzed in comparison with Taiwan’s HCFCs demand trend.     

Groundwater-dependent irrigation costs and benefits for adaptation to global change

The effects of a 1.5 °C global change on irrigation costs and carbon emissions in a groundwater-dependent irrigation system were assessed in the northwestern region of Bangladesh and examined at the global scale to determine possible global impacts and propose necessary adaptation measures. Downscaled climate projections were obtained from an ensemble of eight general circulation models (GCMs) for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 and were used to generate the 1.5 °C warming scenarios. A water balance model was used to estimate irrigation demand, a support vector machine (SVM) model was used to simulate groundwater levels, an energy-use model was used to estimate carbon emissions from the irrigation pump, and a multiple linear regression (MLR) model was used to simulate the irrigation costs. The results showed that groundwater levels would likely drop by only 0.03 to 0.4 m under a 1.5 °C temperature increase, which would result in an increase in irrigation costs and carbon emissions ranging from 11.14 to 148.4 Bangladesh taka (BDT) and 0.3 to 4% CO₂ emissions/ha, respectively, in northwestern Bangladesh. The results indicate that the impacts of climate change on irrigation costs for groundwater-dependent irrigation would be negligible if warming is limited to 1.5 °C; however, increased emissions, up to 4%, from irrigation pumps can have a significant impact on the total emissions from agriculture. This study revealed that similar impacts from irrigation pumps worldwide would result in an increase in carbon emissions by 4.65 to 65.06 thousand tons, based only on emissions from groundwater-dependent rice fields. Restricting groundwater-based irrigation in regions where the groundwater is already vulnerable, improving irrigation efficiency by educating farmers and enhancing pump efficiency by following optimum pumping guidelines can mitigate the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources, increase farmers’ profits, and reduce carbon emissions in regions with groundwater-dependent irrigation.     

Technology-side carbon abatement cost curves for China’s power generation sector

China is among the largest emitters of carbon dioxide (CO₂), worldwide Thus, its emissions mitigation is of global concern. The power generation sector is responsible for nearly half of China’s total CO₂ emissions and plays a key role in emissions mitigation. This study is an integrated evaluation of abatement technologies, including both low-carbon power generation technologies and retrofitting options for coal power plants. We draw marginal abatement cost curves for these technologies using the conservation supply curve method. Using scenario analysis for the years 2015 to 2030, we discuss the potential performance of abatement technologies. Marginal costs for the analyzed abatement technologies range from RMB ? 357.41/ton CO₂ to RMB 927.95/ton CO₂. Furthermore, their cumulative mitigation potential relative to the baseline scenario could reach 35 billion tons of CO₂ in 2015–2030, with low-carbon power generation technologies and coal power abatement technologies contributing 55% and 45% of the total mitigation, respectively. Our case study of China demonstrates the power generation sector’s great potential to mitigate global emissions, and we suggest nuclear power, hydropower, and the comprehensive retrofitting of coal power as key technology options for the low-carbon transition of the energy system and long-term emissions mitigation strategies.

     

Balancing China’s climate damage risk against emission control costs

In this study, we incorporate a three-reservoir climate module into our energy-economy-environmental integrated (3E-integrated) system model, in order to estimate the effect of China’s contribution of unilateral emissions on global warming and to weigh the macro-mitigation cost against the risk of damage, and we also explore the role of adaptation in reducing climate change risk. Our results suggest that China’s unilateral emission-control action plays a relatively limited role in mitigating global warming and is not particularly cost-effective, given that the macro-reduction cost is much larger than the benefit in the corresponding climate damage mitigation. Adaptation plays a large role in curbing China’s climate damages and improving the economics of China’s unilateral emission-control actions, and it is little affected by the introduction and option mitigation strategies. To prevent global warming from exceeding critical thresholds, more international collaborations and cooperative efforts are therefore anxiously needed; as for China, bolstering a low-carbon economy and installing an effective mechanism for improving the adaptation level are two feasible options for controlling climate damage risks, given the great uncertainty on the present situation of international cooperation mitigation.     

基于MIDAS模型中国碳排放量的实时预报与短期预测

随着全球气候变暖问题不断加重,二氧化碳排放量预测成为各国制定碳减排措施的核心问题.传统的二氧化碳排放量预测模型是基于同频数据进行的,高频数据必需处理为低频数据,这样不仅忽略了高频数据携带的有效信息,还影响了模型预测的及时性,降低了模型预测的精度.本文将混频数据抽样模型(MIDAS)用于碳排放量预测研究,分析了高频季度GDP滞后阶数变化效应及其对低频二氧化碳排放量的影响效应.研究结果表明,季度GDP对碳排放量具有正负两种效应,该效应会持续6个季度且以正效应为主,碳排放量自身之间也存在着相互影响,该影响会持续4年之久,这与中国的经济运行状况相吻合,说明混频数据抽样模型(MIDAS)对二氧化碳排放量预测的合理性.此外,混频数据抽样模型(MIDAS)在中国二氧化碳排放量的短期预测方面具有较高的预测精度,在实时预报方面具有显著的可行性和时效性.     

中国省际服务业碳排放空间网络结构及其驱动因素

在碳达峰、碳中和的时代背景下,探索服务业碳排放空间网络结构及其驱动因素对于推进服务业节能减排具有重要的实践价值. 基于2000—2018年中国省际服务业碳排放的面板数据(不含西藏自治区及港澳台地区数据),综合运用修正后的引力模型和社会网络分析法刻画服务业碳排放空间网络结构特征并厘清其驱动因素. 结果表明:①研究期内中国服务业碳排放空间联系强度不断增大,服务业碳排放空间网络结构趋于复杂化且稳定性显著提升. ②上海市、北京市、江苏省和浙江省等省份在中国服务业碳排放空间网络结构中扮演“中心行动者”的角色,这些省份是其他省份进行服务业碳排放空间关联的重要“桥接”和“枢纽”,控制与主导中国服务业碳排放的空间关联和空间溢出. ③省份间的地理位置越邻近,产业结构优化、城镇化水平和科技发展水平的差异越大,中国服务业碳排放空间的联系越多;而服务业碳排放强度的差异越大,服务业碳排放空间的联系越少. 研究显示,中国省际服务业碳排放存在空间关联和空间溢出,但空间网络结构仍较为松散,未来在推进服务业节能减排的工作中,需重视建立省际协同减排机制.      

绿肥间作和秸秆覆盖对冬季油菜根际土壤有机碳及土壤呼吸的影响

在全球变暖的大背景下,农田土壤呼吸成为农业碳排放的主要途径,而绿肥对抑制温室气体排放、实现节能减排有巨大潜力.在我国西南紫色土地区,有关绿肥间作条件下的农田土壤呼吸特征尚不明确.通过绿肥紫云英与油菜间作,重点研究了秸秆覆盖条件下紫云英与油菜间作对冬季油菜根际土壤有机碳及土壤呼吸的影响.结果表明,与秸秆覆盖相比,隔根方式成为影响油菜根际土壤有机碳含量的主要因素,绿肥间作使油菜根际土壤有机碳含量显著降低;秸秆覆盖可促进油菜田间土壤呼吸,而绿肥间作抑制了油菜田间土壤呼吸,土壤呼吸受油菜生育阶段影响较大,呈现出先下降后升高再下降的总体特征,且与土壤温度之间表现出回归式抛物线关系,根际呼吸在油菜生长后期成为土壤呼吸的主要成分.     

碳黑大气颗粒物的环境效应

碳黑颗粒物来自高温燃烧过程,它对可见光辐射具有最大能力的吸收作用。新近研究结果证实,碳黑大气颗粒物具有温室效应的作用,是引起地球气候变暖的重要角色。这种作用可以通过碳黑颗粒物对地球辐射平衡的直接效应和间接效应得以实现。以往人们对碳黑颗粒物这种作用的估计偏低。人们在未来减低大气温室效应的战略中,大气污染削减物质应将碳黑颗粒物包括在内。碳黑颗粒物还具有抑制对流层中臭氧形成、干扰局部地区水文循环和降低能见度的其他环境效应。     

生物炭添加对土壤温室气体排放影响的长短期效应研究进展

人类活动引起的大气温室气体浓度增加是气候变暖的主要原因,全球变暖已经成为了当今人类社会所面临的严峻挑战,应对气候变暖的关键是减少温室气体排放和增加生态系统碳汇,由于生物炭特有的理化和生物学特性,将其施入土壤被认为是一种有前景的减排增汇措施.因此进行生物炭对土壤温室气体排放的影响研究对于减缓温室效应和实现“碳中和”具有重要意义.通过综述生物炭对土壤温室气体排放影响的长短期效应及其影响机制,发现生物炭添加对土壤温室气体排放的影响因生物炭原料类型、热解温度、添加量、土壤和植被类型的不同而不同.此外,因老化时间、老化方式和培养方法的不同,老化生物炭对土壤温室气体的减排效应可能增强或减弱甚至消失.同时,在总结现有研究不足的基础上,对未来生物炭影响土壤温室气体排放研究的方向和重点进行了分析和展望,提出了今后应加强CO₂、 N₂O和CH₄排放影响的同步研究、减排与固碳效应的同步研究、不同老化方式生物炭和不同培养方法的联合研究和利用¹³C和¹⁵N示踪技术从过程层次上揭示影响机制.     

我国发展低碳农业的主要措施研究

在全球气候变暖和能源危机的背景下,农业是温室气体主要排放源之一,低碳农业作为应对气候变化的农业行动,越来越受到人们的重视。低碳农业的目标是减缓温室气体,实现高效率、低能耗、低排放、高碳汇的高效农业。在推动我国低碳农业发展的措施方面,总结起来主要包括减少碳排放、增加碳汇和采用其他相应的技术措施相结合。也就是通过一系列相应的技术措施和基础设施建设,减少温室气体总量排放的同时,增加耕地、草地和林地吸收二氧化碳的量,从而实现低碳农业的可持续发展。     

土地利用/覆盖变化与气候变化定量关系研究进展

当前,以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化对人类社会的可持续发展构成了严重威胁,如何有效适应气候变化成为人类面临的共同挑战。研究表明,全球变暖的主要驱动力是人类活动造成的温室气体排放和土地利用方式改变。过去,科学界致力于削减全球温室气体排放,而土地利用与气候变化的关系,以及如何适应气候变化,没有引起足够重视。论文重点阐述土地利用/覆盖变化对区域气候的生物地球物理影响机制,总结土地利用/覆盖与气候变化定量关系的研究进展,得出现阶段研究存在四点不足:①缺乏景观格局与气候过程关系的认识;②较少考虑人类活动对下垫面的影响;③区域气候模式存在局限;④适应气候变化的研究不足。针对上述问题,论文指出基于可持续性的土地系统设计是适应气候变化的有效途径,也是未来气候变化领域的研究重点。     

也谈全球气候变暖问题

全球气候变暖问题已成为一个人们热议的话题。通过分析全球气候变暖影响因素,得出全球气候变暖是众多因素共同影响的结果。其中自然因素是基本的影响因素,而人为因素则为主导性的影响因素。认为目前人类能够做到的也只能是提高环保意识,尽量减少温室气体的排放量和增加温室气体的吸收量,而对自然因素是无能为力的。中国应采取适合自己的措施应对全球变暖问题。同时分析了全球气候变化对人类以及生物圈的影响,认为全球气候变暖问题给人类带来更大的是灾难,而不是利益,因此要尽一切努力减缓气候变暖趋势甚至解决气候变暖问题。     

秸秆及配施工农业废弃物对茉莉种植园碳排放的影响

废弃物的农业资源化是当前研究的热点之一,但将其应用于环境效应评价还鲜见报道.通过实验测定,探讨了秸秆及秸秆分别配施石膏渣、生物炭、炉渣对福州茉莉园碳排放及其综合增温潜势的影响.结果表明:与对照相比,施加秸秆CH_4排放通量提高了20.05%;与秸秆处理相比,秸秆配施石膏渣和秸秆配施生物炭不同程度地提高了CH_4排放通量,而秸秆配施炉渣的CH_4排放通量则有所降低.与对照相比,施加秸秆CO_2排放通量提高了30.45%;与秸秆处理相比,秸秆配施石膏渣提高了CO_2排放通量,而秸秆配施生物炭和秸秆配施炉渣的CO_2排放通量均有所降低.CO_2对茉莉园碳排放和综合增温潜势贡献较大,碳排放和综合增温潜势均表现为秸秆配施石膏渣秸秆秸秆配施生物炭秸秆配施炉渣对照,秸秆处理的碳排放和增温潜势较对照分别提高了30.42%和30.18%,秸秆配施石膏渣较秸秆处理提高了碳排放和综合增温潜势,而秸秆配施生物炭和秸秆配施炉渣的碳排放和综合增温潜势均有所降低.从温室气体综合增温潜势来看,秸秆配施生物炭或炉渣可作为茉莉园固碳减排的有效配套措施.     

Greenhouse gas scenarios for Austria: a comparison of different approaches to emission trends

In the present paper, national and externally organized projections of greenhouse gas emissions for Austria were compared to gain insight on the underlying scenario data assumptions. National greenhouse gas emission trends extend until 2030, an assessment of European Union (EU) countries to 2050. In addition, data for 2000–2100 was extracted from the global emission database described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). By identifying trends in these projections, it was possible to produce (a) a long-term assessment of national scenarios until 2100, (b) an assessment of the ambition level toward national climate strategies, and (c) a standardized method to compare trends across countries. By extracting RCP data, Austrian’s methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide emissions up to 2100 could be projected for all sources as well as specific sectors. With respect to the RCP scenario emission data, national projections did not seem to employ the mitigation potentials available for the most stringent RCP scenario, RCP2.6. Comparing projections that supported the EU Climate Strategy 2030 with national projections revealed similar trends. Because RCP2.6 is the only scenario consistent with a 2 °C global warming target, and it is much more ambitious than any of the national or European projections, further measures will be required if Austria is to adequately contribute to this widely accepted policy goal.     

中国ODS的排放及其对温室效应的贡献

分析了消耗臭氧层物质(ODS)在中国的消费状况和逐步淘汰的进程.选择1999年为基准年,列出了中国ODS的排放清单,根据各物质作不同用途的排放特点,计算了这些物质的实际排放量的臭氧消耗潜势(ODP)值和全球变暖潜势(GWP)值.结果表明,1999年中国排放的ODS的ODP值约43496t,按照GWP值折算,相当于约60.4106t当量碳.削减和淘汰ODS,不仅能够保护臭氧层,对控制全球变暖也有很大贡献.     

Assessment of the ecodesign improvement options using the global warming and economic performance indicators

In this paper, an assessment method is proposed for ecodesign improvement options using global warming and economic performance indicators. A reduction in the GHG emissions in the entire life cycle stages of a product was chosen as the global warming performance of the product. The external cost which converts the external effect of global warming into a monetary value was chosen as the global warming performance indicator in order to measure the performance of the GHG reduction of the product. The life cycle cost (LCC) of the product was chosen as the economic performance indicator to measure the performance of the life cycle cost reduction of the product. The assessment method based on the two performance indicators was applied to the liquid crystal display (LCD) panel for a case study.     

台湾周边海域波浪能资源研究

利用近5 a的实测海浪数据,定义了波浪能资源开发的可用波高,从波浪能流密度的大小、波周期、波浪能资源开发的可用波高出现频率、波浪能资源储量等方面着手,对台湾周边海域的波浪能资源进行分析,为海浪发电、海水淡化等波浪能资源开发工作提供科学依据。研究发现:①台湾周边大部分海域的能流密度在3 kW/m以上,相对大值区分布于基隆、澎湖、花莲、成功大武附近海域,成功大武附近海域的年平均能流密度高达7.15 kW/m。能流密度在1月和10月最大,7月为全年最低。②台湾岛西部海域的海浪波周期多在4.5~5.5 s,台湾岛以东海域、北部的基隆附近海域、南部的鹅銮鼻附近海域的波周期在6.0 s左右。③台湾周边海域可用波高出现的频率整体较高,其中1月和10月出现频率明显大于4月和7月。④台湾周边海域的波浪能资源总储量在2×10⁴ kWh·m^-1以上,高值区分布于台湾北部的基隆附近海域、台湾东部的花莲附近海域、台湾东南部的成功大武附近海域、位于台湾海峡的澎湖附近海域,高雄附近海域为低值区。⑤台湾周边海域波浪能资源的富集区分布于基隆附近海域、花莲附近海域、成功大武附近海域以及澎湖附近海域,相对贫乏区分布于高雄附近海域。     

Urban CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions in Xi’an and Bangalore by commuters: implications for controlling urban transportation carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries

China and India together have more than one third of the world population and are two emerging economic giants of the developing world now experiencing rapid economic growth, urbanization, and motorization. The urban transportation sector is a major source of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in China and India. The goal of this study is to analyze the characteristics and factors of CO₂ emissions produced by commuters in Chinese and Indian cities and thus to identify strategies for reducing transportation CO₂ emissions and mitigating global climate change. Xi’an in China and Bangalore in India were chosen as two case study cities for their representativeness of major cities in China and India. The trends of CO₂ emissions produced by major traffic modes (electric motors, buses, and cars) in major cities of China and India were predicted and analyzed. The spatial distributions of CO₂ emissions produced by commuters in both cities were assessed using spatial analysis module in ArcGIS (Geographic Information System) software. Tobit models were then developed to investigate the impact factors of the emissions. The study has several findings. Firstly, in both cities, the increase of vehicle occupancy could reduce commuting CO₂ emissions by 20 to 50 % or conversely, if vehicle occupancy reduces, an increase by 33.33 to 66.67 %. It is estimated that, with the current increasing speed of CO₂ emissions in Xi’an, the total CO₂ emissions from electric motors, buses, and cars in major cities of China and India will be increased from 135?×?10⁶ t in 2012 to 961?×?10⁶ t in 2030, accounting for 0.37 to 2.67 % of the total global CO₂ emissions of 2013, which is significant for global climate change. Secondly, households and individuals in the outer areas of both cities produce higher emissions than those in the inner areas. Thirdly, the lower emissions in Xi’an are due to the higher density and more compact urban pattern, shorter commuting distances, higher transit shares, and more clean energy vehicles. The more dispersed and extensive urban sprawl and the prevalence of two-wheeler motorbikes (two-wheeler motorbike is abbreviated as “two-wheeler” in the following sections) fueled by gasoline cause higher emissions in Bangalore. Fourthly, car availability, higher household income, living outside the 2nd or Outer Ring Road, distance from the bus stop, and working in the foreign companies in Bangalore are significant and positive factors of commuting CO₂ emissions. Fifthly, “70-20” and “50-20” (this means that generally, 20 % of commuters and households produce 70 % of total emissions in Xi’an and 20 % of commuters and households produce 50 % of total emissions in Bangalore) emission patterns exist in Xi’an and Bangalore, respectively. Several strategies have been proposed to reduce urban CO₂ emissions produced by commuters and further to mitigate global climate change. Firstly, in the early stage of fast urbanization, enough monetary and land investment should be ensured to develop rail transit or rapid bus routes from outer areas to inner areas in the cities to avoid high dependency on cars, thus to implement the transit-oriented development (TOD), which is the key for Chinese and Indian cities to mitigate the impact on global climate change caused by CO₂ emissions. Secondly, in Bangalore, it is necessary to improve public transit service and increase the bus stop coverage combined with car demand controls along the ring roads, in the outer areas, and in the industry areas where Indian foreign companies and the governments are located. Thirdly, Indian should put more efforts to provide alternative cleaner transport modes while China should put more efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions from high emitters.     

基于投入产出方法的中国能源消费碳排放情景分析

中国目前是世界上最大的发展中国家,同时也是世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国家之一,因此节能减排不仅有利于中国的可持续发展,而且对缓和全球气候变暖具有突出贡献。本文将情景分析法与投入产出法相结合,建立了基于投入产出的能源消耗和CO2排放情景分析模型,模拟在不同的经济增长方式情景下中国2020年能源消耗及其CO2排放情况。然后,对中国节能减排影响因素进行分析。最后得到了有关结论,并提出了相应政策建议。     

Wood materials used as a means to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs): An examination of wooden utility poles

There has been growing concern over the build-up of greenhouse gase(GHGs) in the atmosphere, particularly carbon dioxide (CO₂), as acause of global warming. The IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) suggests two ways in which the choice of materials could berelevant. First, some materials, particularly wood, have the advantage thatthey continue to hold carbon (C)in their cells even after being convertedto products. The implications of this feature are well researched. Second,an area that is not well researched relates to the different energyrequirements for producing similar products made with different materials. Using the findings of recent research, this paper compares the energyrequirements and C emissions of manufacturing a product using wood withthat of other materials. The case study of utility poles demonstrates thepositive C and global warming consequences of the lower energyrequirements of wood in the U.S., compared to other materials such assteel or concrete. It demonstrates that GHG emissions associated withutility poles are a small but significant percent of total US annual emissions. Wood utility poles are associated with GHG emission reductions of 163Terragrams (Tg) of CO₂ when compared with steel poles. This isabout 2.8 percent of US annual GHG emissions, which are estimated atabout 5.28 Petragrams (Pg) of CO₂ annually. Thus, the use ofwooden utility poles rather than steel results in a small but significantreduction in total US emissions.