受限空间人员疏散模型的博弈论分析

应用博弈论的方法,针对受限空间内逃生者疏散行为的特点,建立了一个基于博弈论的疏散模型,通过求解混合策略矩阵博弈均衡解,并根据每个逃生者与各个出口之间的距离进行修正,得到人群疏散过程中逃生者选择的混合策略(即每个出口被选择的概率)的表达式。基于博弈论的疏散模型能够更好的模拟疏散过程中人与人以及人与环境之间的相互影响。     

基于元胞自动机的人员疏散出口选择博弈模型

为提高人员出口选择行为的疏散效率，针对紧急情况下多出口房间的人员疏散过程，提出了一种结合博弈论方法和元胞自动机模型的出口选择优化模型。该模型基于博弈论中的最佳反应动力学概念，考虑了疏散人员之间的相互影响，其中每个人员通过对其他人的选择策略做出最佳响应。分析了影响人员出口选择行为的关键因素，包括人员的耐心坚定程度、出口可见性和出口熟悉度、出口布局以及最佳出口间距等。并将此模型与模拟软件Pathfinder的进行对比，验证了其高效性。结果表明，低耐心程度会导致人员犹豫徘徊行为，不利于疏散。对于单出口选择情况，出口位置分布在墙壁中间时人员疏散效率最高。对于多出口选择情况，当两个出口位于同一墙壁时，出口的最佳间距应设为所处墙壁长度的0.5倍。而位于不同墙壁时，出口对称设计下的人员疏散选择时间最短。     

地铁乘客疏散帮助行为及其影响因素的SEM模型*

为研究地铁疏散中乘客帮助行为及其影响因素之间的作用机制,通过对武汉市地铁站乘客疏散行为进行问卷调查,从普通乘客特征、特殊群体特征、安全认知、疏散环境和恐慌心理5个维度出发,构建地铁乘客疏散帮助行为及其影响因素的结构方程模型。研究结果表明:普通乘客特征、特殊群体特征、安全认知对帮助行为具有直接正向影响,其中安全认知对乘客是否提供帮助行为的影响最大;恐慌心理、疏散环境对帮助行为具有直接负向影响,其中恐慌心理影响较大;安全认知还通过中介变量普通乘客特征、特殊群体特征、疏散环境和恐慌心理对帮助行为产生间接影响。     

残疾人疏散安全研究现状与发展趋势

从残疾人类别、个体疏散能力与群体影响以及疏散环境3个方面汇总分析了目前国内外残疾人疏散安全研究现状,认为今后该研究方向应重点研究和解决以下6个问题,即残疾人的分类、对各类别进行系统研究、扩大样本量、残疾群体与健康群体在疏散过程中的相互影响、残疾人运动能力与运动距离的关系以及疏散环境对残疾人疏散能力的影响。     

人员疏散拥堵问题的博弈分析

从经济学的角度,应用博弈论中经典的"公共地悲剧"理论,分析疏散出口、安全通道等没有排他性所有权的稀缺性资源供给与需求之间的矛盾,提出了人员疏散过程中的博弈数学模型,揭示在理性的疏散人员追求自身收益最大化和没有有效约束与管制的前提条件下,疏散出口等公共资源会被过度使用的现象,即人员疏散过程中的"公共地悲剧"——人员拥堵,并在所提出的博弈模型基础上,从设计与管理的角度,给出一些解决拥堵问题的建议和对策。     

基于蚁群算法的烟气中人员疏散路径选择优化

针对火灾烟气环境下的人员疏散问题,分析人员密度以及烟气能见度对疏散速度以及最佳疏散路径的影响。首先,得到烟气及人员密度对疏散速度的修正函数,并将该函数同蚁群算法的启发式信息函数进行耦合;其次,改进蚁群算法求解最佳路径的局限性,建立1种基于蚁群算法的人员疏散路径算法模型;最后,将算法模型应用于实例研究。研究结果表明:所提出的模型可较好地优化人员疏散路径,并进一步提高人员疏散效率。     

基于多智能体建模方法的人群应急疏散模型构建研究——以腾龙芳烃（漳州）有限公司“4·6”爆炸着火重大事故疏散为例*

为从更微观角度分析人群疏散过程中疏散行为及路网设计对疏散效果的影响,基于腾龙芳烃（漳州）有限公司“4·6”爆炸着火重大事故,构建多智能体人群应急疏散模型,模拟人群中个体群组、惯性、就近、从众、信息传播的行为决策及相互交互影响。结果表明:群组行为会严重影响应急疏散效果,在疏散路网两端避难所附近会出现明显拥堵现象,在疏散路网设计和避难所选择时,应尽可能避免出现极端汇流路段或节点;在应急培训中,应告知群众减少群组行为。研究结果可为人群应急疏散提供借鉴。     

大型活动中人群的应急行为研究综述

为完善对大型活动的应急处理能力,预防应急事件发生,研究人群在应急状况下的行为反应及疏散中的行为决策。从应急管理和救援的角度,对国内外现有文献进行梳理,分析大型活动背景下人群的应急行为和疏散时间、应急疏散模型、应急逃生的调查实证、交通及人流行为特征和组织与疏散方案等方面的研究现状,指出当前国内外大多数文献较多地侧重于利用计算机模拟火灾环境以研究单一建筑体中人的应急疏散行为,行为调查以事后调查为主,对火灾环境之外的其他突发应急事件及个体行为特征的研究等较少。同时,基于试验性研究的应急心理反应对于行为的影响研究,以及群体信任和他人行为对于行为决策的影响等可以作为未来研究的重要方向。     

基于三方演化博弈论的相向流人群疏散行为研究

为探究相向流人群疏散行为,基于考虑疏散指挥者对疏散过程的引导作用,构建包含正向流人群、逆向流人群和疏散指挥者的三方演化博弈模型,分析三方在参与博弈后策略选择的稳定性,并通过数值仿真探究场地宽度、人员密度、合作收益、逆流任务收益、场地熟悉程度、管理强度、事故惩罚等因素对应急疏散系统演化稳定性的影响。研究结果表明：三方博弈主体策略转换联动性较强;相向流人群的竞争或合作策略主要受到合作收益、逆流任务收益和场地熟悉程度影响;盲目提高指挥者的管理强度可能会迫使指挥者放弃管理。研究结果可为减少疏散人员逆向流行为和提高疏散指挥者管理能力提供一定参考。     

城市道路的人员疏散风险评价研究

为量化评价城市道路在人员疏散过程中存在的风险,以支持城市道路规划,以及有效开展应急疏散管理,提出1种城市道路的人员疏散风险评价方法.该方法设定多种影响因素,构建道路疏散风险评价函数,并结合临界簇模型,运用实时交通态势数据与动态人口数据,评估不同时间的道路疏散风险.以上海市外环线内区域为研究区,开展道路疏散风险综合评价与...     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

潞安矿区煤层渗透率的各向异性特征实验研究

为了研究原位煤体渗透性的各向异性特征,以山西潞安常村矿3号煤层圆柱试样为对象,利用TCQT-Ⅲ型低渗煤层气相驱替增产试验装置,对煤样进行加载,并以氮气注入压力2.0 MPa的条件下,分析垂直层理和平行层理2个方向的煤体变形和渗透率变化特征。实验结果表明:煤样在加载过程中,平行和垂直层理煤样渗透率均随着有效应力的增大而减小,平行层理方向的渗透率始终大于垂直层理方向,应力加载初期渗透率急剧下降,最后逐渐趋于平缓;径向应变的增加量与渗透率呈正相关性,且平行层理相关性大于垂直层理;沿平行层理方向的裂隙度大于沿垂直层理方向,沿垂直层理方向的应变量大于沿平行层理方向;应变增加量均随有效应力的增加而逐渐减小。研究结果可为煤层井网布置及优化提供参考。     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

Footedness and Mounting—Short Review and Two Case Studies

Footedness is a personal quality like handedness. Footedness may be associated with moving ability during mounting, dismounting, and jumping movements. Occupational accidents have occurred during movement at different working levels, during the use of access and exit systems, and during the mounting of vehicles. Aging can also affect accident risk and body laterality. For example, falling accidents on stairs are common among the elderly. One reason for accidents may be that the structure of the access system or stair system is unsuitable for individual moving patterns depending partly on body laterality. Footedness and the way the feet are used may be contradictory to the demands of the moving situation, especially during uncommon or rapid situations. This contradiction may trigger disturbance during moving. The aims of this pilot study were (a) to review the literature briefly and (b) to describe the use of the dominant and nondominant foot by farmers and the elderly when mounting a tractor and stairs, respectively. The study also gives ideas for future studies based on both (a) and (b).     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

Debunking the false dichotomy of leadership idealism and pragmatism: Critical evaluation and support of newer genre leadership theories

Leadership theories have shifted over the last few decades from a focus on managerial functions and economic leader–follower exchanges toward greater focus on the interpersonal dynamics occurring within the leadership process. Theories such as transformational, ethical, authentic, and other “newer genre” theories were created to address neglected topics such as leader vision and inspirational messages, transparency, emotional effects, morality, individualized attention, and intellectual stimulation. Critiques of these theories, however, have been raised. In this paper, we address five of those critiques and argue for the validity and practical effectiveness of the new genre theories. Further, we describe how newer genre leadership research should be viewed as a performative epistemology, entailing a process of co‐creation involving scholars and practitioners. Finally, from this view, we provide general ideas for leader development. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.     

森林地表火蔓延模拟方法及其计算机实现

进行了森林火蔓延的研究,对传统的经验公式和模型进行改进,明显发现改进的模型有更好的结果,用计算机巧妙准确地实现了模拟模型,在风力不是特别大,地形变化不是特别剧烈时,该模型有较高精度;并结合火蔓延的主要因素（气象因子、气候、地形等）,进行系统分析,写出算地,编制实现地表火蔓延的预测预报计算机系统软件。这对于有效的组织扑救、减少火灾损失、计算森林火灾的损失评估有重要意义。     

公路隧道火灾逃生疏散研究

以苍岭隧道为背景,首先采用经验计算理论和计算软件building EXODUS相结合的方式,从被困人员的安全疏散时间、高温烟气的影响、隧道横通道的利用率以及人员的疏散行为特性进行了研究。结果表明:中小规模火灾情况下的安全疏散时间控制在8 min之内,高温烟气影响不大,但横通道的利用率不平均,且人员疏散路线相对集中。然后对存在的逃生疏散问题提出针对性建议以及其他相关建议,旨在为更大程度降低事故的严重性和经济财产损失。