Communicating air pollution-related health risks to the public: An application of the Air Quality Health Index in Shanghai,China

The Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) was originally developed in Canada. However, little is known about its validity in communicating morbidity risks. We aimed to establish the AQHI in Shanghai, China, and to compare the associations of AQHI and existing Air Pollution Index (API) with daily mortality and morbidity. We constructed the AQHI as the sum of excess total mortality associated with individual air pollutants, and then adjusted it to an arbitrary scale (0–10), according to a time-series analysis of air pollution and mortality in Shanghai from 2001 to 2008. We examined the associations of AQHI with daily mortality and morbidity, and compared these associations with API from 2005 to 2008. The coefficients of short-term associations of total mortality with particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM₁₀), PM_2.5 and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) were used in the establishment of AQHI. During 2005–2008, the AQHI showed linear non-threshold positive associations with daily mortality and morbidity. A unit increase of the PM₁₀-AQHI was associated with a 0.90% [95% (confidence interval, CI), 0.43 to 1.37], 1.04% (95%CI, 0.04 to 2.04), 1.62% (95%CI, 0.39 to 2.85) and 0.51% (95%CI, 0.09 to 0.93) increase of current-day total mortality, hospital admissions, outpatient visits and emergency room visits, respectively. The PM_2.5-AQHI showed quite similar effect estimates with the PM₁₀-AQHI. In contrast, the associations for API were much weaker and generally statistically insignificant. The AQHI, compared with the existing API, provided a more effective tool to communicate the air pollution-related health risks to the public.     

中国城市建设用地集聚对利用效率的影响:机理、空间效应与分群差异

为探究城市建设用地集聚对城市建设用地利用效率的作用机理,文章基于2003—2017年中国278个地级及以上城市面板数据,通过构建多产出随机前沿生产函数模型测度城市建设用地利用效率,采用时间-空间双固定的空间杜宾模型探讨了不同程度的城市建设用地集聚对利用效率的影响机理与差异。结果表明:(1)从时空特征上来看,样本考察期内中国城市建设用地利用效率总体上呈稳步提升趋势,东部城市建设用地效率最高,西部次之,中部最低。(2)从全国维度的空间计量模型回归结果来看,城市建设用地集聚所带来的规模效应和外溢效应对城市建设用地利用效率具有改进作用,有利于利用效率进一步提升。(3)从不同城市建设用地集聚度分群回归结果来看,高集聚城市(东部发达地区)的直接效应显示随着城市建设用地集聚度的提高,利用效率也不断提高;间接效应中,建设用地集聚度的提高对周边城市的利用效率产生先带动后抑制的"倒U"形作用。低集聚城市(中西部欠发达地区)的直接效应和间接效应均显示,随着城市建设用地集聚的提高,其利用效率存在"先降后升"的"U"形曲线特征。可见,在城市发展的不同阶段,城市建设用地集聚对城市土地利用效率存在差异化影响。因此,中国城市发展应立足当前发展阶段特征,制定差别化的供地政策,促进城市建设用地集聚,针对性地提升区域要素利用效率,支撑经济社会进一步发展。     

国土空间规划对重点开发区域的经济增长效应研究——武汉城市圈规划的经验证据

"多规融合"的国土空间规划兼具区域发展规划和环境规制的功能,是经济新常态下国家平衡经济增长和环境保护的有力政策工具,而各地普遍实施的国土空间规划能否促进重点开发区域的经济增长,有待实证检验。以武汉城市圈空间规划为例,本文利用2002-2012年间湖北省74个县(市、市辖区)域面板数据,采用双重差分倾向得分匹配方法研究国土空间规划对重点开发区域经济增长的影响。实证结果表明:第一,国土空间规划显著地促进了重点开发区域经济的增长,但对区域内不同行政级别的市辖区和县(市)的经济增长速度具有不同的推动作用,具体表现为分别提高市辖区和县(市)级GDP增长率2.4和1.1个百分点,这一结论在对研究方法的匹配技术进行稳健性检验后依然成立。第二,对国土空间规划推动重点开发区域经济增长实现机制的进一步分析表明,武汉城市圈空间规划实施后,由于区域经济一体化进程的加快和地区之间经济联系的加强,武汉作为区域经济增长极,对相邻市、县的经济溢出效应更加明显,从而推动相邻区域的经济增长。上述研究结论对目前广泛实施的国土空间规划具有重要的政策含义,鉴于国土空间规划推动市辖区经济增长的速度要明显快于县或县级市,今后规划政策的调整要在保持重点开发区域整体经济不断提升的同时兼顾地区间的协调发展,避免空间规划的实施导致内部区域发展差距拉大;在重点开发区域经济得到发展的同时,要逐渐形成其规模集聚效应,为农产品主产区和生态功能区的人口转移提供基础,进而带动整个国土空间的可持续发展。     

The environmental potential of reuse: an application to used books

Reuse is generally considered to have environmental benefits, but it has not yet been widely adopted in environmental policy or strategy. In this paper, a simple model of second-hand markets is explored with a case study of used books that illustrates the behavior of the model and shows that such a model is consistent with the data. Three questions of the dynamics of reuse are addressed: (1) If it becomes easier to buy and sell used goods (via Internet markets or other means), by how much will sales of used goods increase? (2) When sales of used goods increase, by how much will sales of new goods decrease? (3) When is reuse better than recycling? Expanding from the case study, the model is used to examine how reuse affects the consumption of new goods, and the relative merits of reuse versus recycling. When the used goods market is small, the ratio of the price of used and new goods, an observable quantity, is approximately equal to the fractional decrease in sales of new goods that will result from increased sales of used goods. A formulation of the environmental impact of reuse and recycling is developed that includes the market impact of reuse. Illustrating this formulation for books with a simplified analysis, reuse of books through sales in a second-hand market is estimated to save more than twice as much energy, with considerable uncertainty, than making books from recycled paper. The formulation provides a basis for identifying products and markets for which reuse can be an effective environmental strategy.     

Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to estimate public health impacts of PM2.5 from individual power plants

We estimated PM_2.5-related public health impacts/ton emitted of primary PM_2.5, SO₂, and NO_x for a set of power plants in the Mid-Atlantic and Lower Great Lakes regions of the United States, selected to include varying emission profiles and broad geographic representation. We then developed a regression model explaining variability in impacts per ton emitted using the population distributions around each plant. We linked outputs from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model v 4.7.1 with census data and concentration–response functions for PM_2.5-related mortality, and monetized health estimates using the value-of-statistical-life. The median impacts for the final set of plants were $130,000/ton for primary PM_2.5 (range: $22,000–230,000), $28,000/ton for SO₂ (range: $19,000–33,000), and $16,000/ton for NOx (range: $7100–26,000). Impacts of NO_x were a median of 34% (range: 20%–75%) from ammonium nitrate and 66% (range: 25%–79%) from ammonium sulfate. The latter pathway is likely from NO_x enhancing atmospheric oxidative capacity and amplifying sulfate formation, and is often excluded. Our regression models explained most of the variation in impact/ton estimates using basic population covariates, and can aid in estimating impacts averted from interventions such as pollution controls, alternative energy installations, or demand-side management.     

Environmental tobacco smoke: The use of mathematical models to predict health effects

The mathematical model used by Repace and Lowrey to arrive at the quantitative estimate of five lung cancer deaths per year 100, 000 persons exposed to ETS is questioned based on data from published international studies. A challenge of the Repace and Lowrey calculations is necessary to allay the concern which has arisen from the uncritical acceptance of the preliminary accusative estimates.     

Adaptive urban governance: new challenges for the second generation of urban adaptation strategies to climate change

The task of adapting cities to the impacts of climate change is of great importance—urban areas are hotspots of high risk given their concentrations of population and infrastructure; their key roles for larger economic, political and social processes; and their inherent instabilities and vulnerabilities. Yet, the discourse on urban climate change adaptation has only recently gained momentum in the political and scientific arena. This paper reviews the recent climate change adaptation strategies of nine selected cities and analyzes them in terms of overall vision and goals, baseline information used, direct and indirect impacts, proposed structural and non-structural measures, and involvement of formal and informal actors. Against this background, adaptation strategies and challenges in two Vietnamese cities are analyzed in detail, namely Ho Chi Minh City and Can Tho. The paper thereby combines a review of formalized city-scale adaptation strategies with an empirical analysis of actual adaptation measures and constraints at household level. By means of this interlinked and comparative analysis approach, the paper explores the achievements, as well as the shortcomings, in current adaptation approaches, and generates core issues and key questions for future initiatives in the four sub-categories of: (1) knowledge, perspectives, uncertainties and key threats; (2) characteristics of concrete adaptation measures and processes; (3) interactions and conflicts between different strategies and measures; (4) limits of adaptation and tipping points. In conclusion, the paper calls for new forms of adaptive urban governance that go beyond the conventional notions of urban (adaptation) planning. The proposed concept underlines the need for a paradigm shift to move from the dominant focus on the adjustment of physical structures towards the improvement of planning tools and governance processes and structures themselves. It addresses in particular the necessity to link different temporal and spatial scales in adaptation strategies, to acknowledge and to mediate between different types of knowledge (expert and local knowledge), and to achieve improved integration of different types of measures, tools and norm systems (in particular between formal and informal approaches).     

Accuracy and reliability of Chile's National Air Quality Information System for measuring particulate matter: Beta attenuation monitoring issue

A critical analysis of Chile's National Air Quality Information System (NAQIS) is presented, focusing on particulate matter (PM) measurement. This paper examines the complexity, availability and reliability of monitoring station information, the implementation of control systems, the quality assurance protocols of the monitoring station data and the reliability of the measurement systems in areas highly polluted by particulate matter. From information available on the NAQIS website, it is possible to confirm that the PM_2.5 (PM₁₀) data available on the site correspond to 30.8% (69.2%) of the total information available from the monitoring stations. There is a lack of information regarding the measurement systems used to quantify air pollutants, most of the available data registers contain gaps, almost all of the information is categorized as “preliminary information” and neither standard operating procedures (operational and validation) nor assurance audits or quality control of the measurements are reported. In contrast, events that cause saturation of the monitoring detectors located in northern and southern Chile have been observed using beta attenuation monitoring. In these cases, it can only be concluded that the PM content is equal to or greater than the saturation concentration registered by the monitors and that the air quality indexes obtained from these measurements are underestimated. This occurrence has been observed in 12 (20) public and private stations where PM_2.5 (PM₁₀) is measured. The shortcomings of the NAQIS data have important repercussions for the conclusions obtained from the data and for how the data are used. However, these issues represent opportunities for improving the system to widen its use, incorporate comparison protocols between equipment, install new stations and standardize the control system and quality assurance.     

Possible health effects of energy conservation: Impairment of indoor air quality due to reduction of ventilation rate

Efforts to reduce the energy needs to heat or cool dwellings have the potential to create new health hazards. Increases in indoor levels of radon and its progeny from the reduction in air exchange rates add a substantial radioactive burden to the general population. Other indoor pollutants reaching critical concentrations in homes with low air exchange rates are CO and NO₂ from unvented combustion in gas stoves and heaters, tobacco smoke, and asbestos fibers. In addition, insulation materials and certain types of furniture may contribute the toxicant formaldehyde diffusing from foam injected walls or chipboard. Risk estimations using linear dose-response relationships show risk factors per kWh saved which are orders of magnitude greater than for a kWh produced by large power plants using coal, oil, gas, or uranium.     

Countermeasures for animal products: a review of effectiveness and potential usefulness after an accident.

Over the last decade, there has been considerable progress in the development of countermeasures for preventing or reducing contamination of animal products by radioisotopes of iodine, caesium and strontium. In this paper, recent significant technical improvements are summarised and the current availability of countermeasures and their usefulness in the event of a nuclear accident reviewed. An improved understanding of factors controlling the metabolism of radioiodine and radiostrontium has enabled previously suggested countermeasures to be either optimised or dismissed. For radiocaesium in particular, experience since the Chernobyl accident has enabled effective and feasible countermeasures to be identified and successfully implemented in different situations. It has also been more widely understood that countermeasure effectiveness, although important, is not the only criterion which needs to be determined. In addition, cost and practical considerations such as availability, technical feasibility, acceptability and side-effects need to be taken into account. Evaluation of these factors has shown that some previously recommended countermeasures are unlikely to be feasible.     

The in-use annual energy and carbon saving by switching from a car to an electric bicycle in an urban UK general medical practice: the implication for NHS commuters

The UK Climate Change Act (CCA) mandates an 80 % reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2050. It is estimated that 3.2 M tonnes pa CO₂ results from travel-related NHS business. The acquisition of an electric bicycle to replace a car for both commuting and home visits allowed comparison of fuel use and CO₂ emissions over a 4-year period. The switch to the use of the electric bicycle reduced the average annual petrol use by 329 l, the energy consumption by 3,140 kWh and the CO₂ released by 748 kg a year. Wider adoption of electric bicycles in urban General Practice will contribute to the requirements of the CCA though to have a significant effect on the current estimated commuting-related carbon footprint of the NHS (0.76 MT pa) would require two-thirds of the workforce to abandon their cars in favour of electric bicycles.     

Scenario-based urban growth allocation in a rapidly developing area: a modeling approach for sustainability analysis of an urban-coastal coupled system

Being located in an urban-coastal coupled system, the Hashtpar City is one of the most attractive areas for urban construction, tourism, agricultural activities and environmental protection in northern Iran. To resolve the issues between land developers and environmental conservation agencies, we conducted a scenario-based urban growth allocation procedure through the SLEUTH model. The scenarios consisted of ‘business as usual’, ‘managed urban growth’ and ‘environmentally sound growth’ that were introduced by modification of model parameters and exclusion layer. The resultant urban growth arrangements were compared for composition and configuration attributes of landscape patterns. According to the results, the pattern of urbanized lands under managed urban growth option demonstrated better connectivity and compactness of urban patches, while the two other scenarios generated a highly fragmented pattern. The managed urban growth can be considered as a compromised solution between other scenarios since it simultaneously takes into accounts both developers and environment protectors points’ of views. On this basis, a combination of centralized and decentralized urban land use planning is a recommended strategy for our urban-coastal environment to fulfill the purposes of a sustainable development process. The findings of the present article suggest that further expansion of the major urban core in the targeted area should be prohibited since it can lead to an urban patch with considerable physical size and noticeable ecological footprint.     

Model-based analysis of urban settlement process in eco-sensitive area of developing country: a study with special reference to hills of an Indian city

Rapid and unplanned expansion of a city into its eco-sensitive areas like hills, wetlands, and forests is becoming a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Understanding the process and causes of such unplanned urban expansion is of paramount importance for framing sustainable urban development policies. This paper presents a modelling concept that relates urban settlement in such eco-sensitive areas with potential socio-economic, demographic and geographical factors. The model is applied to an Indian city Guwahati, which is experiencing serious environmental degradation due to unplanned urban settlement in its eco-sensitive hilly areas. While topographical and settlement data were derived using satellite data in GIS platform, all other necessary data were collected from relevant government organizations. On validation of the multi-linear regression model, the coefficient of determination and the root mean square error are obtained as 0.938 and 1.7, respectively. Model results show that geographical parameters are less influencing as compared to the other socio-economic and demographic factors. Sensitivity analysis of urban settlements in hills of Guwahati city carried out with respect to the considered factors reveals that land value and free space availability in the surrounding area of a hill are the most sensitive parameters. This indicates that city development plans should give more importance to outward spatial expansion in plain areas with regulated land value and zoning scheme to minimize unauthorized settlement in eco-sensitive hilly areas of Guwahati city.     

Spillover effects of trade and foreign direct investment on economic growth: an implication for sustainable development

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This paper explores the advantages of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), which can be the main factors of transferring technology...     

国际经验对中国西部地区绿色发展的启示:政策及实践

在当下全球经济萧条和发展中国家日益增长的巨大需求背景下,中国西部需要绿色发展,国际经验可以起到前车之鉴和抛砖引玉的作用.以OECI国家为主,基于实地考察调研和座谈、以及文献资料分析,总结了其绿色发展相关政策建议以及典型案例区实践活动在推进区域绿色发展中的作用和经验,涉及政策框架和路线图制定、绩效监测评估、经济建设和环境保护同步发展、生态补偿、绿色就业和扶贫等.重点分析了OECD国家以往推进绿色经济发展的结构调整与改革的经验,如澳大利亚水资源管理、矿产业开发和生物库的例子;加拿大采用经济手段保护生物多样性的案例;瑞士农业旅游和西班牙绿色工业发展的案例;以及澳大利亚实施“清洁可持续技能培训计划”的经验等.尽管各个国家由于制度、经济体制、发展水平的差异,在推进绿色发展的具体战略措施和行动方案等方面存在差异,但一些共同认可的经验和成功案例对中国西部绿色发展起步实施具有一定的借鉴和指导作用.根据这些国际经验分析,本文提出了对中国西部绿色发展的五点启示,主要包括:①制定绿色发展的制度安排和路线图;②开展动态的绩效监测评估与考核,建立切合实际的可量化的考核体系;③建立生态产权或自然资源产权交易市场化的激励机制,并选择典型区先行先试,建立长期稳定有效的生态补偿机制;④利益相关者积极主动参与到绿色发展的进程之中;⑤提供绿色就业机会,提高劳动力技能和素质.     

Typifying cities to streamline the selection of relevant environmental sustainability indicators for urban water supply and sewage handling systems: a recommendation

Measuring performance and setting targets and benchmarks for the future entail the adoption of metrics or indicators. Sustainability is a multi-pronged objective encompassing social, economic, health, cultural, governance and environmental aspects. Indicators can be grouped under these categories. The selection of environmental sustainability indicators for a water and wastewater utility in a city needs to be based on concerns specific to the utility in question. The authors, in this paper, have recommended the classification of cities into city types based on specific attributes and identification of relevant environmental sustainability indicators, from a pool of 13 indicators, for these different city types. Having selected the relevant indicators, utilities can use them as tools to improve their environmental performance. The purpose is to not facilitate inter-utility comparisons within or across city types. Every utility would compare its environmental performance at a given point in time with what it was in the past. Towards the end, the paper also applies the methodology to nine cities across four continents—Europe (Oslo, Trondheim and Turin), Asia (the National Capital Territory of Delhi, Beijing, Tel Aviv and Male), North America (Sacramento) and South America (São Paulo). In all, 13 environmental sustainability indicators have been identified. Two cities—Oslo and Trondheim (both from Norway) belong to the same city type, while the other seven are different from each other in this regard. The number of relevant indicators ranged from 4 for Trondheim to 11 for Tel Aviv. The methodology is not restricted to urban water supply and sewage handling systems. It can be extended to other infrastructure systems as well—waste management, transportation, etc.     

Accounting for carbon stocks in models of land-use change: an application to Southern Yucatan

To assess the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks, we apply a new methodology, linking ecological and economic modeling, to southern Yucatan, Mexico. A spatial econometric multinomial logit model of ten land-cover classes is estimated (four primary forest categories, three secondary growth categories, an invasive species, and two agricultural land-cover categories), using satellite data on land cover, linked with census socioeconomic data and other biophysical spatial data from 2000. The analysis is novel in that it is the first attempt to link detailed satellite data on land use, with on-the-ground estimates of carbon stocks in a spatial econometric model of land use. The estimated multinomial logit model is then used with two scenarios of future economic growth (“low growth” and “high growth” changes in population, agricultural land use, market access, and education levels) in the region to predict land-cover changes resulting from the economic growth. The per hectare carbon (C) stocks in each land-cover class are derived from previously published estimates of biomass from field sampling across the study region. We consider aboveground-only, aboveground plus soil, transient and non-transient pools of carbon. These estimates are scaled up to the total area in each class according to the predictions of the model baseline and the two development scenarios. Subsequently, the changes in carbon stocks resulting from the predicted land-cover changes are calculated. Under the low growth scenario, carbon stocks declined by 5%; under the high growth scenario, losses were 12%. Including soil C, the proportional losses were lower, but the absolute amount lost was more than double (to 6 Tg C under the low and almost 15 Tg C under the high-growth scenario). This methodology could be further developed for applications in global change policy, such as payments for environmental services (PES) or reduction in emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD).     

Adaptation to climate change as resilience for urban extreme poor: lessons learned from targeted asset transfers programmes in Dhaka city of Bangladesh

This paper aims to identify how targeted asset transfers help to build adaptive capacity and adaptive actions of the urban extreme poor to climate change phenomena. This paper explores the theoretical debates of community-based adaptation approach and failure of such approach to address urban extreme poor. The empirical evidence of these theoretical debates will be drawn from two informal settlements of Dhaka city, where a targeted asset transfer project has been implementing since 2009. This paper explains that urban extreme poor usually work as unskilled labour and lack different livelihood capitals; and climate change is an increasingly important influence exacerbating an already vulnerable livelihood context. There is growing recognition in the literature that poor urban people and communities are adapting to climate change in physical and behavioural terms. But, in the case of urban extreme poor these adaptation approaches are delivering short-term survival strategies disregarding the notion of wellbeing in the medium to long-term perspectives. It is also evident that community level initiatives structurally reproduce the exclusion of the urban extreme poor. However, poverty literatures acknowledge that poverty-centred approaches could help to reduce vulnerability. As urban extreme poor are significantly more resource constrained, it is reasonable to assert that targeted asset transfers could be a poverty-centred adaptation approach in a changing climate. Targeted asset transfers approaches are the outcomes of recent social protection revolution that especially consider accumulation of physical, financial, human, and social capital in order to build adaptive capacity of the urban extreme poor. This adaptive capacity of the extreme poor may facilitate adjustments in assets, livelihoods, behaviours, and technologies in order to reduce future climate vulnerability. In this context, this paper seeks to answer whether targeted asset transfer approaches can be considered as effective poverty-centred adaptation approaches for the urban extreme poor or not.