Land use and energy scenarios affecting the global carbon cycle

Past increase of atmospheric CO₂ involves significant contributions from both fossil and biospheric sources. The latter are controversial, partly because these CO₂ releases may be balanced by accelerated regrowth following clearing of some forests, while others were being converted to agricultural or other nonforest land. A simulation model was used to reconstruct changes since 1860 and project four hypothetical future scenarios of CO₂ injection to 2460. Nineteen compartments and their exchanges of carbon were considered. Areal extents of tropical forests, other wooded ecosystems, and nonforests were incorporated into the model. Rapidly and slowly exchanging pools of carbon per unit area were projected by integrating income-loss differential equations numerically. Estimated cumulative releases of CO₂ from fossil fuels (plus cement) near 120 Pg of carbon (1 Pg = 10¹⁵ g) from 1860 to 1970 were assumed to equal the prompt plus delayed releases due to forest clearing. Limits of exploitable forest area and biomass were evaluated and found to contribute much less future CO₂ than usable fossil fuels. Ultimate release from the latter (7500±2500 Pg C) could increase atmospheric CO₂ manyfold: doubling the assumed 1860 levels as early as (1) the year 2032 for assumed early fossil-use scenarios and (2) the year 2045 for late fossil-use scenarios. Depending on the poorly known parametes that were programmed to constrain the organic production rates, cumulative storage, and the response of plants and soils to enhanced atmospheric CO₂, biospheric storage might reach higher levels for all scenarios than the estimates given here. However, maximizing such storage in real life would require much closer understanding and wiser management of ecosystems than history has shown.     

Sources and sinks of carbon dioxide in terrestrial ecosystems: Is the land's carbon budget balanced under the influence of man?

This contribution deals with the controversy between certain scientists on the role of terrestrial vegetation and soils in the global carbon cycle. The hypothesis of a significant net release from the vegetation, is rejected by geochemists because of the limited capacity of the ocean to take up this excess carbon dioxide. As for the man-influenced tropics, a comparison of the figures for the potential and the current phytomass, as well as plausible demographic arguments, support the assertion put forward by ecologists that the carbon budget of this zone cannot be balanced. The tropics lose about 1.7-3.9 × 10¹⁵ g/yr of carbon to the atmosphere; however, for several reasons, 0.5-2.8 × 10¹⁵ g/yr may be returned to land ecosystem, mostly in other climatic zones. Thus, a balance is achieved on combining low estimates for the losses with high estimates for the gains. From an ecological perspective, this solution is not a very probable one; nevertheless, it cannot conclusively be eliminated.     

Soil erosion tolerance and water runoff control: minimum environmental standards

Council Regulations (EC) No 1257/1999 and the EU Soil Thematic Strategy give great importance to soil and land conservation to develop knowledge driven governance for rural development. In the hilly areas of Italy cultivated intensively, and especially in the ones devoted to viticulture, agricultural practices determine high loss of soil with consequent degradation of the soil resource. In addition to it, offsite effects of soil erosion can be unsustainable, due to sediment transfer to the channel network and infrastructures. In order to achieve a sustainable rural development there is a need for tools and instruments to allow European regional administrations, to develop, implement, manage and monitor rural development plans. To counteract the environmental threats intensified by agricultural activity, the environmental functions “soil erosion control” and “water runoff control” were investigated in the Chianti area by using GIS. To determine the EMR (Environmental Minimum Requirements) values for soil erosion the “regeneration” capability of soils was considered, and the value of estimated soil loss was compared with the value of soil reformation. A scenario analysis was also performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the agroenvironmental measure “grass cover” in reducing erosion. The concept of tolerable erosion based on soil productivity and soil reformation rate only is reductive and off-site effects of soil erosion should be also taken into account. For this reason, it was proposed to extend the concept of hydrogeological risk to soil erosion by implementing the notion of soil erosion tolerance (T) with the new concept of environmental risk of soil erosion (ERSE). The new ERSE index takes into account all the in- and off-farm externalities of soil erosion. For this reason, it can be considered an aggregated environmental indicator that enables policy makers to evaluate the impacts of soil erosion by following an holistic approach.     

Soil erosion and its impacts on water treatment in the northeastern provinces of Thailand

The economy of Northeast Thailand is mainly based on agriculture. The transformation of forestlands to agricultural areas and the encroachment of riverbanks within the Phong watershed have caused severe soil erosion. Strong storms in rainy season exacerbate the problem of soil erosion. Difficulty in getting water drives people in the upstream region to live on riverbanks. Soil erosion affects water utility by increasing the turbidity in the Phong River and also by decreasing the water storage capacity of small reservoirs for the upstream residents, as well as that of the Ubolratana Dam. The rate of siltation in the Ubolratana Dam was estimated to be 1.5 million tons/year during 1965-1990. The main source of water supply is surface water in the Phong watershed, and fluctuating turbidity makes water treatment difficult. The maximum turbidity in the upstream Phong River exceeds 5000 NTU, whereas it is reduced to be about 300 NTU at the intake point of Khon Kaen Municipal Water Treatment Plant because the Ubolratana Dam works as a huge clarifier. Khon Kaen Municipal Waterworks has a daily water supply of 72,960 m3/day. The average amounts of alum used in the wet (May-October) and dry (November-April) periods are 42.33 g/m3 and 28.46 g/m3, respectively. The average costs of the amounts of alum used are 0.213 and 0.143 Bahts/m3 during the wet and dry periods, respectively. Fluctuation of turbidity in raw water makes it difficult to adjust alum dose, resulting in treated water quality unstable, and handling of sludge disposal difficult.     

The global carbon cycle and possible disturbances due to man's interventions

Global atmospheric CO₂ concentration has increased since the beginning of reliable monitoring in 1958 at a mean rate of about 0.9 ppm CO₂/yr. Now, atmospheric CO₂ concentration is at 330 ppm. From about 1860 up to 1974, man's intervention in the global carbon cycle caused a likely increase of 76.6 × 10¹⁵ gC, corresponding to 36 ppm CO₂ in the atmosphere, if a preindustrial content of 294 ppm CO₂ or 625.3 × 10¹⁵ g C is adopted to be valid. A further rise of atmospheric CO₂ seems to be inevitable and probably will be responsible for a climatic warming in the next several decades; therefore, a global examination of carbon reservoirs and carbon fluxes has been undertaken to determine their storage capacity for excess carbon which orginated mainly from burning fossil fuels and from land clearing. During 1860–1974 about 136 × 10¹⁵ g C have ben emitted into the atmosphere by fossil fuel combustion and cement production. At present, the emission rate is about 5 × 10¹⁵ g C/yr. The worldwide examination of carbon release, primarily by deforestation and soil cultivation since 1860, is estimated to be about 120 × 10¹⁵ g C. The net transfer of carbon to the atmosphere owing to man's interference with the biosphere is now believed to be about 2.4 × 10¹⁵ g C/yr. An oceanic uptake of roughly 179 × 10¹⁵ g C since 1860 is open to discussion. According to the chemical buffering of sea surface water only about 35.5 × 10¹⁵ g C could have been absorbed. It is argued, however, that oceanic circulations might have been more effective in removing atmospheric excess carbon of anthropogenic origin.     

Soil erosion response to climatic change and human activity during the Quaternary on the Loess Plateau, China

We review published stratigraphic, archaeological and pedosedimentary evidence in order to reconstruct the history of soil erosion in China. Documentary evidence of climatic and flood events of the Yellow River and modern hydrological and meteorological data are synthesised to analyse the history of past human activity and its effects on soil erosion intensity during four nested periods of time during the Quaternary. The most intensive period of erosion during the Quaternary was in the Holocene. During the Holocene, intervals of intensive soil erosion occurred at 7500–7000 BP, 200 BCE–0 CE, 1000–1600 CE (Christian era) and during the 1930s, 1950s and the later part of the 1960s of the last century. Large-scale human activity including warfare during early Chinese history, population migration, the inner wars in 1930s, the Cultural Revolution and the recent national campaign to aid soil and water conservation are all closely related to the rate of soil erosion on the Loess Plateau and to sediment loads in the Yellow River. Overall, soil erosion during the transition from dry-cool to wet-warm climates was more intense than during wet-warm and cool-dry climatic episodes, but serious accelerated soil erosion has occurred during the last 2,500 years because of man-induced devastation of vegetation and other anthropogenic disturbance of the environment. Modern rates of soil erosion on the Loess Plateau are a combination of both intensive natural and human-induced erosions and are some four times greater than occurred in the geological past. The recent implementation of soil and water conservation measures has decreased sediment load in the Yellow River by 25%.     

Soil carbon dynamics in a Mediterranean forest during the Kyoto Protocol commitment periods

The purpose of the present work is to asses the possibility of detecting changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) at the end of the 5-years of the first Commitment Period (CP) of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (1 January, 2008–31 December, 2012), by both direct measurement and the use of an opportunely evaluated SOC model, CENTURY. The investigated soil is young, developed since 28 years on virtually C-free spoil banks and under the influence of two managed forest stands, one a mix of English oak (Quercus robur L.) and Italian alder (Alnus cordata Loisel.) and the other pure English oak. The SOC stock of either stand was monitored since the time the stands were planted in 1981, and it was used together with other parameters for the model evaluation, while the future projections for the end of the first (2012) and second (2017) CP were made according to two extreme IPCC climatic scenarios: A1F1, the most dramatic, and B2, among the less impacting. Direct SOC measurements performed at the beginning and at the end of a time frame equivalent to a commitment period (2004–2008) had not shown significant variations in either stands. Compared to the 2008 SOC stock, in both stands the model shows variations at the end of the first CP from 0.7 to 1.8 Mg C ha⁻¹ for the A1F1 scenario and from 0.3 to 1.7 Mg C ha⁻¹ for the B2. These variations are within the standard deviations of the C stocks measured in 2008. On the contrary, at the end of the second CP, the modelled SOC increments range from 2.5 to 3.6 Mg C ha⁻¹ (A1F1) or from 1.9 to 3.4 Mg C ha⁻¹ (B2), indicating the possibility to detect the SOC changes by direct measurement, since the values well agree with the minimum detectable variation estimated for both sites in 3.3–4.5 Mg C ha⁻¹. This work shows that SOC stock changes measured directly in the field can be minimal at the end of both CPs, and that CENTURY well simulates the SOC dynamics of the stands. The use of such a model, validated at long-term experimental sites, hence represents an effective tool for estimating future changes in SOC amounts in support of direct measurements when a short period of time, such as the CP, is considered.     

Examination of model uncertainty and parameter interaction in a global carbon cycling model (GLOCO)

Simulation models play an important role in understanding the causes and consequences of climate change. In order to make full use of these models, it is necessary to establish the magnitude and sources of uncertainty associated with their predictions. This information can be used to achieve a better understanding of the simulated systems, to increase the reliability of model predictions, to guide field surveys and laboratory experiments, and to define realistic values that should be used in scientific, economic, and political discussions of future conditions. In this paper, a new tree-structured density estimation technique that extends the ability of Monte Carlo-based analyses to explore parameter interactions and uncertainty in complex environmental models was applied. The application of the technique is demonstrated using the GLOCO global carbon cycle model. The paper demonstrates that there are numerous distinct parameter combinations that can meet fairly stringent calibration criteria, and they are concentrated in relatively small subsets of the parameter space. These different subsets can be viewed as representing different ecological systems that achieve the same calibration or performance goals in fundamentally different ways. It is also shown that the simulated responses of these systems to future environmental change can lead to different conclusions regarding the interaction between factors affecting environmental processes, such as the growth of vegetation. Together, these results show how the tree-structured density estimation technique can be applied to gain a broader understanding of model performance and of ecosystem responses to change.     

Methods of landscape ecology in prognostic estimation of the biotic regulation of the carbon cycle under conditions of global climate warming

The strategy of prognostic landscape-ecological studies on climatogenic changes in the biological cycle and carbon balance in forest ecosystems as leading factors of the biotic regulation of the environment is presented. Methods are described for constructing analytical and cartographic empirical statistical models that make it possible to reveal the local mechanisms of biotic regulation and identify the zonal/regional types of forest formations capable of stabilizing the continental biosphere in the changing climate.     

Sedimentation rates and erosion processes in the lagoon of Venice

Since the early 1990s in the lagoon of Venice, especially in the central basin, the surface sediment underwent high re-suspension and sedimentation changes and water turbidity increased both because of the disappearance of the macroalgal coverage and the harvesting of the Manila clam Tapes philippinarum Adams and Reeve, which had rapidly colonised the bottom free of macrophytes. Clams are harvested with hydraulic and mechanical dredges which remove and re-suspend surface sediments causing the transport and loss of the finest materials. Sediment transport and re-deposition in the lagoon have been monitored with sediment traps placed onto the bottoms near the Malamocco mouth (st. A), the Lido watershed (st. B) and the mainland (sts. C and D). From 1989-1993 to 1998-1999 sedimentation rates increased significantly at st. A (from 41 to 228 kg DW m(-2) year(-1)), st. B (from 65 to 760 kg DW m(-2) year(-1)) and st. C (from 140 to 721 kg DW m(-2) year(-1)), while at st. D sedimentation rates increased only by ca. 20%. In parallel sediment grain-size changed with a loss of the finest fraction especially near the mainland. The erosion or sedimentation status, acquired by utilizing sedimentation devices placed onto the bottoms, showed that sts. B, C, D were affected by sediment losses, while st. A, populated by seagrasses and characterised by seasonal variations which depend on the shoot development, did not show any significant bathymetric change on an annual basis. The highest sediment erosion was recorded at st. D (ca. 3.6 cm year(-1)) whereas a loss of ca. 1.5 and 0.5 cm year(-1) was found at sts. C and B, respectively, which accounted for a mean loss in the central lagoon of ca. 1.2 million tonnes year(-1). Those data agree with the previous indirect estimation of sediment loss which was based on the number of fishing boats operating in the lagoon on an annual basis.     

Development and non-indigenous species at the global scale

This paper investigates the explanatory power of development, prosperity and regulatory capability as proximate causes of non-indigenous species (NIS) occurrence in different countries, doing this by statistically analysing a global cross-sectional data set. Since the quantification of development is subject to much discussion, two different indicators are tested: gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the United Nations human development index (HDI). A corruption index is used as an indicator of regulatory capacity. In addition, variables capturing country openness, which facilitates NIS introduction, and habitat conditions, which determine NIS establishment, are included as explanatory variables. The GDP indicator together with the corruption index fits the NIS data best, where the number of NIS is higher in countries with larger incomes. However, countries with relatively high income but low institutional capacity show a larger number of NIS than countries with a similar level of income but with higher institutional capacity. The results also point to the significant contributions of openness and habitat fragmentation to NIS occurrences in the countries.     

Soil organic carbon dynamics of croplands in European Russia: estimates from the “model of humus balance”

The Model of Humus Balance was used to estimate the influence of climate effects and changing agricultural practices on carbon (C) levels in soddy–podzolic soils in the Russian Federation for the years 2000–2050. The model was linked with a spatial database containing soil, climate and farming management layers for identification of spatial change of C sequestration potential. Analysis of relationships between C, soil texture and climate indicated that compared with a business-as-usual scenario, adaptation measures could increase the number of polygons storing soil organic carbon (SOC) by 2010–2020. The rate of possible C loss is sensitive to the different climate scenarios, with a maximum potential for SOC accumulation expected in 2030–2040, thereafter decreasing to 2050. The effect is most pronounced for the arid part of the study area under the emission scenario with the highest rate of increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, supporting findings from the dynamic SOC model, RothC. C sequestration during the study period was permanent for clay and clay loam soils with a C content of more than 2%, suggesting that C sequestration should be focused on highly fertile, fine-textured soils. We also show that spatial heterogeneity of soil texture can be a source of uncertainty for estimates of SOC dynamics at the regional scale. Figures in color are available at     

Mapping the global supply and demand structure of rice

Rice plays a major role in the global supply and demand for sustainable food production. The constraints of maintaining sustainable rice production are closely linked to the relationship between the distribution patterns of human activity on the planet and economic growth. Global patterns of rice production can be mapped by using various criteria linked to domestic income, population patterns, and associated satellite brightness data of rice-producing regions. Prosperous regions have more electric lighting, and there are documented correlations between gross domestic product (GDP) and nighttime light. We chose to examine global rice production patterns on a geographical basis. For the purposes of this study, each country is considered to be made up of regions, and rice production is discussed in terms of regional distribution. A region is delineated by its administrative boundaries; the number of regions where rice is produced is about 13,839. We used gridded spatial population distribution data overlain by nocturnal light imagery derived from satellite imagery. The resultant relationship revealed a correlation between regional income (nominal values of GDP were used) and rice production in the world. The following criteria were used to examine the supply and demand structure of rice. Global rice consumption = “caloric rice consumption per capita per day” multiplied by “regional population values”. Regional rice yields = “country-based production” divided by “harvested area” (multiple harvests are taken into account). Regional rice production = “regional harvested areas” multiplied by “rice yield values”. We compared regional rice consumption and production values according to these methods. Analysis of the data sets generated a map of rice supply and demand. Inter-regional shipping costs were not accounted for. This map can contribute to the understanding of food security issues in rice-producing regions and to estimating potential population values in such regions.     

Climate and conflicts: the security risks of global warming

Since the publication of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, the securitization of global warming has reached a new level. Numerous public statements and a growing research literature have discussed the potential security risks and conflicts associated with climate change. This article provides an overview of this debate and introduces an assessment framework of climate stress, human security and societal impacts. Key fields of conflict will be addressed, including water stress, land use and food security, natural disasters and environmental migration. A few regional hot spots of climate security will be discussed, such as land-use conflicts in Northern Africa; floods, sea-level rise and human security in Southern Asia; glacier melting and water insecurity in Central Asia and Latin America; water conflicts in the Middle East; climate security in the Mediterranean; and the potential impact on rich countries. Finally, concepts and strategies will be considered to minimize the security risks and move from conflict to cooperation in climate policy.     

Vegetation cover and rainfall seasonality impact nutrient loss via runoff and erosion in the Colombian Andes

Regional Environmental Change - Mountain ecosystems provide key services to a large portion of the population in the tropics. However, they are particularly vulnerable to regional environmental...     

Soil and biodiversity

It is shown that the soil diversity-biodiversity system in terrestrial ecosystems operates in spatiotemporal unity, which manifests itself at different hierarchical levels of their structural-functional organization: successional-evolutionary, zonal geographic, landscape, biogeocenotic, soil-type, horizon-layer, geochemical, and the levels of elementary soil processes and soil fertility. Arguments confirming the functional relationship between organisms and soils are considered. Effective biodiversity conservation is possible on the basis of an ecosystems approach involving simultaneous conservation of soil diversity.     

Soil Fertility Quality and Agricultural Sustainable Development in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China

The black soil in northeast China is considered one of the most fertile soils in China. Consequently, the black soil region has become one of the most important regions for cereal grain production in China. Agriculture has developed rapidly since the early part of the nineteenth century. To date, approximately 70 percent of total land in the area is cultivated. Even though the agricultural production in this region is increasing continuously, some soil fertility quality problems have become serious. This is hampering agricultural development and sustainability in the region. A brief history of population growth and agricultural development in the region is presented. Major soil quality problems, particularly soil degradation and soil erosion, are analyzed. Based on studies, suggestions for improving soil quality and for promoting sustainable agricultural development in the region are presented. These suggestions include improving agricultural landscape patterns, developing conservation cultivation, promoting combinations of crop production with combinations of forestry and animal husbandry, and implementing integrated management for soil and water conservation.     

Certainty and uncertainty in understanding global warming

Global warming has greatly concerned the whole world.Owing to the limitation we currently have,it is still difficult to completely understand the mechanism and physical science of climate change.Now both certainty and uncertainty coexist in the understanding of climate warming.This paper aims to summarize certainties and uncertainties in climate-warming studies,which focus on seven key problems related to human activities,namely,global warming,atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases,relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming,climate models,future climate change,2?warming threshold and tipping point in the Earth's system.We should comprehensively take into account the level of certainty and uncertainty in our understanding of climate change while adapting to and mitigating global warming and adjusting our industrial structures accordingly.This would allow us to respond to change with certainty,while avoiding the risks associated with uncertainty.     

Plants against the global epidemic of arsenic poisoning

Due to the growing current trend around the world of drinking water from underground sources, in an attempt to replace heavily polluted surface water supplies, arsenic is causing a global epidemic of poisoning with hundreds of millions of people now being thought at serious risk in many countries. Phytoremediation (bioremediation mediated by plants) has been proposed as an effective tool in arsenic cleanup. Actually, some plants (most notably, the Chinese brake fern Pteris vittata) have been reported to be suitable for arsenic phytoremediation. In this respect, transgenic plants are being developed to improve their capacity to accumulate arsenic. Most interestingly, rhizofiltration (use of plants to absorb or adsorb pollutants from water) is being considered for the ex situ and in situ remediation of arsenic-contaminated water. Similarly, some plants show great potential to remove arsenic from polluted soil.