Evaluating the impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands in Languedoc-Roussillon,France

Sea-level rise due to climate change creates new risks of submersion in coastal areas that must be taken into account. Although these are long-term risks for 2100, it is important to anticipate possible consequences in order to identify the most vulnerable areas or issues and develop the appropriate adaptation policies. The aim of this paper is to examine the consequences of such sea-level rise for wetlands in the Languedoc-Roussillon region (France) which is particularly at risk of submersion. The analysis is based on the worst case scenario of a one meter sea level rise by 2100, with a variety of adaptive strategies: denial, laissez-faire and strategic retreat of infrastructure and buildings. This latter strategy assumes that the retreat wetlands is unconstrained. The evaluation examines the losses and transformations of ecological habitats, depending on their distance from salt water. Estimating damages and benefits requires first, to study the evolution of the services supplied by different habitats and second, to estimate the value of the economic impact. This approach demonstrates the superiority of a strategic retreat policy which would halve the damages resulting from submersion.     

Vulnerability risk assessment and adaptation to climate change induced sea level rise along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt

Consequence of the sea level rise (SLR) on the Mediterranean coastal areas in Egypt, particularly the Nile River Delta, has become an issue of major concern to Egypt’s population and the government. Previous publications disregard the entire Mediterranean coast of Egypt as an integral unit subject to the impacts of the SLR. This study aims to analyzing the risks, ranking the vulnerability and suggesting adaptation measures to mitigate the impact of the SLR along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt. Although the prominent features of Egypt’s Mediterranean coastal zone are the low lying coast of the Nile Delta, associated with land subsidence, tectonic activities and erosion; the contiguous coastal sectors are backed by shore-parallel carbonate ridges and Plateau (the western coast) and sand dune belts (Sinai coast). The coastal zone is ranked as high, moderate, and low vulnerable to the SLR. The social and biophysical vulnerabilities demonstrate the asymmetrical impacts of the SLR on the Mediterranean coast of Egypt. Areas at risk in the Alexandria region are Mandara and El Tarh whereas in the Nile Delta region, they are the Manzala Lagoon barrier, east and west of the Rosetta City, Gamil, and the Tineh plain. Risk associated with these impacts may be reduced provided the consideration of immediate and adequate adaptation measures.     

Economy-wide impacts of climate change: a joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism

While climate change impacts on human life have well defined and different origins, the interactions among the diverse impacts are not yet fully understood. Their final effects, however, especially those involving social-economic responses, are likely to play an important role. This paper is one of the first attempts to disentangle and highlight the role of these interactions. It focuses on the economic assessment of two specific climate change impacts: sea-level rise and changes in tourism flows. By using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model the two impacts categories are first analysed separately and then jointly. Considered separately, in 2050, the forecasted 25 cm. of sea level rise imply a GDP loss ranging from (−) 0.1% in South East Asia to almost no loss in Canada, while redistribution of tourism flows – which in terms of arrivals favours Western Europe, Japan, Korea and Canada and penalises all the other world regions – triggers GDP losses ranging from (−) 0.5% in Small Island States to (−) 0.0004% in Canada. GDP gainers are Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe, Middle East and South Asia. The impact of sea level rise and tourism were simulated jointly and the results compared with those of the two disjoint simulations. From a qualitative point of view, the joint effects are similar to the outcomes of the disjoint exercises; from a quantitative perspective, however, impact interaction does play a significant role. In six cases out of 16 there is a detectable (higher than 2% and peaking to 70%) difference between the sum of the outcomes in the disjoint simulation and the outcomes of the joint simulations. Moreover, the relative contribution of each single impact category has been disentangled from the final result. In the case under scrutiny, demand shocks induced by changes in tourism flows outweigh the supply-side shock induced by the loss of coastal land.

海平面上升和土地利用驱动下红树林生境脆弱性研究

为了探索海平面上升(SLR)和土地利用导致的红树林生境潜在变化,本文以我国红树林分布最集中的雷州半岛为研究区域,基于SLAMM模型和景观生态模型建立了红树林生境脆弱性指数,设置4个SLR-土地利用组合情景(SLR4.5-土地开发利用、SLR4.5-土地自然转换、SLR8.5-土地开发利用、SLR8.5-土地自然转换),预测2050年雷州半岛红树林的生境变化和脆弱程度,并提出应对环境变化的管理策略.结果表明,(1)SLR和土地利用双重压力的叠加将造成红树林生境的显著退化,预测生境面积将减少16.59%～25.61%,减少地点集中在铁山港、安铺港、湛江港、雷州湾和流沙湾沿岸.(2)在土地自然转换情景下,尽管仍应对着海平面上升的压力,红树林潜在生境面积可增加44.66%～67.74%,增加的区域集中在岸线往内陆方向和沿水系向内陆延伸的两岸,但新增生境面临着破碎化程度高的问题.(3)在所有情景下均呈现红树林迁出现有保护区的趋势,保护区内红树林面积由5949.8hm²下降至4732.1～5192.9hm².(4)高脆弱区主要分布在雷州湾、湛江港近岸和流...     

基于“3S”的红树林资源调查方法研究

论文研究了“3S”技术与地面调查相结合进行红树林资源调查的技术方法。以SPOT和Landsat7ETM+为信息源,经预处理后在GIS支持下进行目视判读和编制工作手图,实地采用GPS实测和目测勾绘修正小班界线,进入林内调查林况因子。结果表明,群落类型调查精度为100%;小班面积平均误差、小班周界平均位移、小班中心位置平均相对位移分别为11.8%、18.3m、13.1%,远小于常规方法(1∶10000地形图目测勾绘)的76.6%、108.7m和274.9%;效率比GPS实测高2.04倍,有效地解决了传统方法调查中存在的红树林空间位置和分布境界线定位准确性差、面积精度低,一般航天遥感调查分类精度低和GPS方法效率低等问题。     

交通仿真与GIS在尾气扩散模拟中的应用研究

以机动车尾气扩散模型为核心,采用集成微观交通仿真平台PARAMICS和地理信息系统建立城市道路交通环境模拟系统(UTESS)的方法,将交通仿真技术与GIS技术应用到机动车尾气污染扩散模拟中。以广州市为例,给出了该系统的验证过程与应用实例。文章通过模拟道路下风侧接受点逐时的CO与NOX浓度进行验证,模拟值与实测值的平均相对误差分别为25.1%和15.6%;应用实例采用UTESS模拟路网上空10m高度的CO浓度分布,模拟结果较好的反映了不同路段交通流对CO浓度空间分布的影响。     

基于GIS的营口港总体规划生态环境影响分析

规划环境影响评价是目前战略环境评价(SEA)研究中最活跃的领域.港口总体规划属于交通运输规划的范畴,涉及多种生态环境要素,对其实施后的生态环境效应进行分析和评价具有重要的现实意义.以营口港总体规划对大气和水环境影响及其对近海海域生态敏感区的影响为例,采用遥感(RS)与地理信息系统(GIS)相结合的技术,建立与评价相关的基于GIS的基础数据平台,运用GIS的空间分析功能对港区规划的生态环境影响进行分析和评估.实例研究表明,营口港规划实施将对陆域生态环境产生一定影响,对于海域生态敏感区的影响则较小.      

RS、GIS在内陆湖泊水质研究中的应用

:遥感 (RS)、地理信息系统 (GIS)技术的综合应用在许多研究领域广泛推广并日渐成熟 ,表现出广阔的发展前景。将 RS、GIS相结合 ,综合应用于内陆湖泊水质的监测和分析 ,充分体现了其快速、经济、高效的强大优势。本文首先回顾了一般监测方法的特点及局限性 ,主要讨论了 RS、GIS的特点及在内陆湖泊监测和分析中的优势所在。最后提出了此领域的发展方向展望     

基于RS和GIS的西部干旱区生态环境调控研究

实现生态环境优化调控与科学管理，是保护生态环境、促进社会经济与环境协调发展、建立人与自然和谐关系的重要举措。尤其是对生态环境十分脆弱的西部干旱地区，各级政府和学术界给予高度的重视。在定量研究生态环境调控的理论方法和具体操作过程中，需要借助遥感(RS)、地理信息系统(GIS)以及它们的结合等技术手段，来实现时空变化信息的实时、动态监测以及信息的提取、分析和处理。本文针对西部干旱区生态环境调控问题。提出一种RS和GIS支持下的生态环境调控量化研究方法，包括基于RS和GIS的西部干旱区生态环境量化指标体系、生态环境调控管理模型、调控方案优选与实施。并介绍一个应用例子。     

Vulnerability of land systems to fire: Interactions among humans,climate, the atmosphere,and ecosystems

Fires are critical elements in the Earth System, linking climate, humans, and vegetation. With 200–500 Mha burnt annually, fire disturbs a greater area over a wider variety of biomes than any other natural disturbance. Fire ignition, propagation, and impacts depend on the interactions among climate, vegetation structure, and land use on local to regional scales. Therefore, fires and their effects on terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to global change. Fires can cause dramatic changes in the structure and functioning of ecosystems. They have significant impacts on the atmosphere and biogeochemical cycles. By contributing significantly to greenhouse gas (e.g., with the release of 1.7–4.1 Pg of carbon per year) and aerosol emissions, and modifying surface properties, they affect not only vegetation but also climate. Fires also modify the provision of a variety of ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, soil fertility, grazing value, biodiversity, and tourism, and can hence trigger land use change. Fires must therefore be included in global and regional assessments of vulnerability to global change. Fundamental understanding of vulnerability of land systems to fire is required to advise management and policy. Assessing regional vulnerabilities resulting from biophysical and human consequences of changed fire regimes under global change scenarios requires an integrated approach. Here we present a generic conceptual framework for such integrated, multidisciplinary studies. The framework is structured around three interacting (partially nested) subsystems whose contribute to vulnerability. The first subsystem describes the controls on fire regimes (exposure). A first feedback subsystem links fire regimes to atmospheric and climate dynamics within the Earth System (sensitivity), while the second feedback subsystem links changes in fire regimes to changes in the provision of ecological services and to their consequences for human systems (adaptability). We then briefly illustrate how the framework can be applied to two regional cases with contrasting ecological and human context: boreal forests of northern America and African savannahs.     

基于GIS的区域环境地质评价--以福建省为例

利用GIS的有关理论和技术，选择区域环境地质评价的指标体系，利用层次分析模型确立其权重系数，构造了区域环境地质评价模型。评价过程中，摈弃了常用的规则网格划分评价单元的评价方法，改进为利用GIS的空间登加功能生成评价单元，并利用GIS的属性数据库对福建省区域环境地质状况进行了定量评价。最后根据评价结果将福建省环境地质状况分为五个区，并分析了各区主要存在的环境地质问题。     

Source emissions and climate change impacts on the multimedia transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants, Chaohu watershed, eastern China

Emission intensity and climate change control the transport flux and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in multiple environmental compartments. This study applied a multimedia model (BETR model) to explore alternations in the spatio-temporal trends of concentrations and transport flux of benzopyrene (BaP), phenanthrene (Phe), perfluorooctane sulfonates (PFOS) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the Chaohu watershed, located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China in response to changes in source emissions and climate. The potential historic and future risks of these pollutants also were assessed. The results suggest that current trends in concentrations and transport were similar to that of their emissions between 2005 and 2018. During the next 100 years, temporal trends and spatial patterns were not predicted to change significantly, which is consistent with climate change. Based on sensitivity and correlation analyses, climate change had significant effects on multi-media concentrations and transport fluxes of BaP, Phe, PFOS and PCBs, and rainfall intensity was the predominant controlling factor. Risk quotients (RQs) of BaP and Phe-in soil increased from 0.42 to 0.95 and 0.06 to 0.35, respectively, from 2005 to 2090, indicating potential risks. The RQs of the other examined contaminants exhibited little potential risk in soil, water, or sediment. Based on spatial patterns, it was inferred that the ecosystem around Lake Chaohu is the most at risk. The study provides insights needed for local pollution control of POPs in the Chaohu watershed. In addition, the developed approach can be applied to other watersheds world-wide.     

基于GIS的溶解态氮磷负荷模型研究

为了研究妫水河流域的氮磷非点源污染来源,在官厅水库周围进行了野外人工降雨实验,结果表明,氮磷输移率与径流量具有很好的相关性,溶解态氮、磷的平均相关系数分别是0.997 8和0.988 9,因此提出了新的溶解态氮磷负荷模型.从妫水河流域的土壤图、土地利用图中提取地理信息,以数字高程模型为依据,应用新模型研究了妫水河流域溶解态氮污染负荷的空间分布。结果表明,溶解态氮主要来自水浇平地,其次是低山和丘陵.     

大连湾陆源污染物排海总量控制信息系统概念设计

根据陆源污染物总量控制原理和沿海地区地方政府的经济条件，以大连湾为例，采用地理信息系统（ＧＩＳ）技术，设计了排放入海湾的陆源污染物总量控制信息系统的概念模型，涉及系统建设的原则，数据类型，软件，硬件，用户界面和功能。为我国海湾污染物控制工作提供经济实用，先进的管理方法。     

1987～2015年嘉陵江源区植被覆盖度时空变化特征

江河源头地区植被建设与生态保护意义重大。应用遥感技术分析植被覆盖状况近年来已渐成热点。本文以嘉陵江源头所在地陕西省宝鸡市凤县为研究区,基于1987年、2000年和2015年3期Landsat卫星遥感影像,提取归一化植被指数NDVI（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index）,采用像元二分模型,运用ENVI 5.3和ArcGIS10.4软件计算得到研究区植被覆盖度分布格局及动态变化。结果表明：（1）1987~2015年期间研究区植被以高覆盖区为主,高覆盖区面积增加了5.96%,呈上升趋势;（2）研究区植被退化面积占3.91%,基本不变的面积占85.36%,改善面积占10.73%,研究区植被改善面积多于退化面积,与退耕还林还草工程关系密切;（3）植被覆盖度随坡度和高程的增大呈先增加后降低的趋势;阴坡的植被覆盖度低于阳坡,但高于平地,坡向对植被覆盖的影响主要体现在温度上;（4）矿产资源开发对植被破坏的影响大于风力发电场建设,建议当地政府加强矿山生态环境修复力度。研究结果可服务于嘉陵江源区生态保护与流域管理。     

基于GIS环境管理平台聚类分析的实现

高效数字化管理技术是我国环境管理工作的关键和必然趋势。地理信息系统和多元统计方法虽然在环境管理中已经得到一定程度的应用,但这两种高效工具几乎处于"脱节"状态;文章在GIS平台上有效地集成了系统聚类分析方法,有利于区域环境质量管理对空间海量数据的分析,文章重点介绍了系统聚类谱系图的生成算法与绘制中的难点,并用实例验证了该算法的可靠性和实用性。     

晋西南黄土高原区植被覆盖度变化及其生态效应评估

水土流失和生态退化是黄土高原区面临的严峻问题,已经严重制约了经济发展。基于TM和OLI数据,分别估算晋西南黄土高原区的植被覆盖度（FVC）和遥感生态指数（RSEI）,定量分析了晋西南黄土高原区的植被和生态恢复效果,并提出需要重点治理的区域。研究结果表明：（1）15年间晋西南黄土高原区的植被覆盖度和遥感生态指数都呈现增加的趋势,FVC指数从2002年的42.69%增加至2017年的47.67%,RSEI指数由2002年的45%增加至2017年的52.5%,反映出研究区生态质量有了明显提高;（2）除研究区内芝河流域、汾河谷地和沁河流域的生态质量出现严重退化外,研究区大部分区域的FVC指数和RSEI指数都呈改善趋势,因此需对芝河流域、汾河谷地和沁河流域加大生态治理力度;（3）除研究区汾河谷地外,其余地区植被覆盖度和遥感生态指数的变化趋势基本吻合,汾河谷地由于冬小麦大面积种植,植被覆盖度得到一定程度改善,但遥感生态指数并没有明显改善。     

土地利用/覆盖变化对长江上游非点源污染影响研究

在国内外相关研究的基础上,利用输出系数模型,结合RS和GIS技术,对长江上游的非点源污染负荷进行了空间模拟和负荷估算.模拟结果表明,在不考虑流域损失的前提下,由于土地利用造成的非点源污染负荷TN总量从20世纪70年代的123万t下降至2000年的116万t,基本呈逐年减少的趋势,由土地利用造成的TP的变化趋势与TN基本相同,从70年代的3.7万t下降到2000年的3.5万t左右.就省份、土地利用类型和水系而言,四川省、种植用地和草地以及金沙江水系和嘉陵江水系对长江上游的非点源污染贡献较大.在非点源污染负荷强度上,重庆市和嘉陵江水系单位面积负荷最高,是今后应重点治理的地区.结果表明,该模型可以对长江上游这样的超大尺度空间的非点源污染进行较好的空间模拟.     

基于3S技术的环境污染治理对策论应用模型研究

探讨了基于3S技术的现代空间信息系统支持下的对策论多元合作对策费用分摊策略问题。首先．从对策论基本原理出发，分析了费用分摊对策模型。针对大气环境污染防治多元决策问题，提出了采用3S综合集成技术确定污染源及盛行污染路径、确定污染区域面积和污染损失、污染损失费用分摊分析模型与方法。介绍了模型在大气环境污染防治多元决策领域中的应用实例。3S技术为对策论模型提供科学决策数据，有效地解决对策论应用中的瓶颈问题。     

基于生命周期视角的种养一体化奶牛场环境经济效益评估

准确评估种养一体化奶牛场的经济性能与环境绩效,是相关支持政策制定的基础,也是促进奶业低碳生产的关键.本文基于生命周期视角,对非种养一体化奶牛场(non-IPBS)和种养一体化奶牛场(IPBS)养殖过程中的温室气体排放、能源消耗、水消耗、土地占用等环境成本和经济效益进行评估.结果 表明,non-IPBS生产1t标准牛奶(...