飞机货舱轰燃规律的试验研究

为研究飞机货舱火灾发展至轰燃的内在规律，在1/4体积标准飞机货舱内开展了一系列火灾轰燃试验。以单壁瓦楞纸箱被引燃作为轰燃发生的判据，研究了油盘尺寸和燃料种类对轰燃的影响，通过对货舱上部热烟气层平均温度、地板所受辐射热通量、燃料热释放速率及烟气体积分数的分析，探讨了轰燃发生的临界条件和表现形式。结果表明：油盘尺寸的增大提高了轰燃发生的可能性和轰燃的剧烈程度，在达到引发轰燃所需的临界油盘尺寸后，继续增大油盘尺寸会使轰燃发生的时间提前；引发飞机货舱轰燃所需的临界条件为，上部热烟气层平均温度达到456℃,地板所受辐射热通量达到14.3 kW/m²;此外，通过对轰燃所需的临界油盘尺寸与燃料热物性参数的拟合，发现轰燃所需的临界油盘尺寸正比于燃料的蒸发热，反比于燃料的燃烧热。     

室内火灾发展过程稳定性数值计算与分析

为明确轰燃现象出现前火灾所处的状态,得到轰燃发生的临界条件,基于非线性动力系统稳定性理论,针对描述火灾过程的一个典型微分方程,采用数值方法计算了系统Jacobi矩阵的特征值随时间的变化。计算结果表明在出现轰燃现象之前的火灾过程始终处于临界稳定状态。通过火灾过程的温度T(n+1)~T(n)曲线的数值计算验证了轰然发生的临界条件,对火灾非线性动力系统的时间演化过程进行了解释。     

基于热解动力学的有限空间轰燃预测模型

对建筑物中常见的几种可燃物：塑料、硬纸板、布料、三合板、木板等，进行了热解实验，给出了其失重曲线，并导出了热解反应动力学参数——活化能E和频率因子A。建立了基于热解动力学方程和特征浓度的有限空间轰燃预测模型，并给出了计算实例。     

研究进展

国家自然科学基金重点项目火灾中若干特殊火行为研究　　针对火灾中若干危害较大的特殊火灾现象 ,包括建筑火灾中的轰燃和回燃、大坡度高山峡谷林火、矿井隧道火灾中的风流紊乱 ,探索这些特殊火行为产生的机制。通过 3年的研究 ,本项目完成了小型轰燃、回燃实验台的研制 ;利用数字粒子图象技术DPIV进行了回燃前重力流流场结构的研究 ;回燃现象属于燕尾型突变 ,其产生的决定性参数是腔体内的燃料质量百分比 ;提出了纤维素材料热解的一种改进模型 ;修正了轰燃的非线性模型 ;成功的建立了描述氮气气氛和空气气氛下生物质材料热解失重行为的“…     

通风开口对轰燃影响的数值模拟

轰燃是建筑火灾中的一个重要的火现象,室内局部火的发展过程中,热烟气向水源基底辐射,在一定条件下会产生正反馈,导致热烟气温度和火源释放速率急剧增加,从而转变成遍及整个房间的大火,轰燃的产生与否受到很多因素的影响,尝试利用CFAST对轰燃现象进行数值模拟,讨论了不同的通风开口条件对轰燃发生时热烟气温度和热释放速率的影响,计算机结果表明,当开口面积固定时,竖直开口比水平开口需要更大的火源释热速率,另外也指明了,多数情况下用CFAST对轰燃进行计算是可能的,但在某些临界条件下计算会终止。     

飞机客舱结构对轰燃影响的仿真研究

客舱轰燃的发生直接关系到乘客的生命安全。为研究撞地火灾情景下飞机客舱轰燃的影响因素,基于BFD曲线参数估计模型分析确定轰燃的主要影响因素为开口因子、火灾总燃料载荷和火灾发展系数。利用Pyro Sim建立客舱结构仿真模型,通过FDS对不同型号的波音和空客飞机进行了仿真模拟,得到轰燃发生时间在160~230 s。仿真结果表明,改变客舱表面积即改变客舱的长、宽、高会对开口因子产生直接影响,进而影响轰燃发生时间。     

回燃及其对腔室火灾过程的影响

从火灾中的两种特殊火行为－轰燃和回燃的发生机理出发,着重讨论了回燃在整个火灾过程中的作用以及回燃对轰燃的影响。结果表明,由于回燃和轰燃同为火灾全过程中的分过程,并且由于二者发生机理的相似性,因而,它们可以建立联系。当具备合适的热解产物浓度时,回燃过程可以使火灾系统的状态突变到完全发展状态,即引发轰燃。     

受限空间火灾轰燃过程的模拟实验研究

研制一种重现火灾轰燃的化学燃料和氧化剂的混合燃料，通过调整燃料的配方，可实现模拟控制火灾轰燃的温度和烟气产生量；实验研究了火灾轰燃过程烟气参数的变化规律，说明建筑火灾烟气运动的场-区-网模拟模型是合理的，分析了火灾过程中烟气的产生、运动、回流、下沉现象物理机制，指出在受限空间火灾救灾过程中应注意的问题。     

初始引火源燃烧特征对动车车厢轰燃的影响研究北大核心CSCD

为了研究动车组发生火灾时车厢内火焰不断蔓延、火势不断增大导致车厢内轰燃的情况,并得到引起车厢轰燃的临界初始引火源热释放速率及所需燃烧持续时间,采用火灾动力学三维模拟软件FDS模拟其燃烧过程,分析在持续燃烧和非持续燃烧2种状态下不同热释放速率的初始引火源引起的动车组车厢轰燃情况。结果表明:引起动车组车厢轰燃的临界初始引火源热释放速率值为160 k W,燃烧持续时间临界值为1 470 s。随着初始引火源热释放速率的增大,车厢发生轰燃的时间变短,两者之间存在乘幂函数关系;且发生轰燃所需的火源燃烧持续时间也随之缩短,两者之间同样存在乘幂函数关系。根据动车组车厢内常见初始引火源特征,明确了不同行李物品作为初始引火源对动车组车厢发生轰燃的危险性。     

初始引火源燃烧特征对动车车厢轰燃的影响研究北大核心CSCD

为了研究动车组发生火灾时车厢内火焰不断蔓延、火势不断增大导致车厢内轰燃的情况,并得到引起车厢轰燃的临界初始引火源热释放速率及所需燃烧持续时间,采用火灾动力学三维模拟软件FDS模拟其燃烧过程,分析在持续燃烧和非持续燃烧2种状态下不同热释放速率的初始引火源引起的动车组车厢轰燃情况。结果表明:引起动车组车厢轰燃的临界初始引火源热释放速率值为160 k W,燃烧持续时间临界值为1 470 s。随着初始引火源热释放速率的增大,车厢发生轰燃的时间变短,两者之间存在乘幂函数关系;且发生轰燃所需的火源燃烧持续时间也随之缩短,两者之间同样存在乘幂函数关系。根据动车组车厢内常见初始引火源特征,明确了不同行李物品作为初始引火源对动车组车厢发生轰燃的危险性。     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

潞安矿区煤层渗透率的各向异性特征实验研究

为了研究原位煤体渗透性的各向异性特征,以山西潞安常村矿3号煤层圆柱试样为对象,利用TCQT-Ⅲ型低渗煤层气相驱替增产试验装置,对煤样进行加载,并以氮气注入压力2.0 MPa的条件下,分析垂直层理和平行层理2个方向的煤体变形和渗透率变化特征。实验结果表明:煤样在加载过程中,平行和垂直层理煤样渗透率均随着有效应力的增大而减小,平行层理方向的渗透率始终大于垂直层理方向,应力加载初期渗透率急剧下降,最后逐渐趋于平缓;径向应变的增加量与渗透率呈正相关性,且平行层理相关性大于垂直层理;沿平行层理方向的裂隙度大于沿垂直层理方向,沿垂直层理方向的应变量大于沿平行层理方向;应变增加量均随有效应力的增加而逐渐减小。研究结果可为煤层井网布置及优化提供参考。     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

Footedness and Mounting—Short Review and Two Case Studies

Footedness is a personal quality like handedness. Footedness may be associated with moving ability during mounting, dismounting, and jumping movements. Occupational accidents have occurred during movement at different working levels, during the use of access and exit systems, and during the mounting of vehicles. Aging can also affect accident risk and body laterality. For example, falling accidents on stairs are common among the elderly. One reason for accidents may be that the structure of the access system or stair system is unsuitable for individual moving patterns depending partly on body laterality. Footedness and the way the feet are used may be contradictory to the demands of the moving situation, especially during uncommon or rapid situations. This contradiction may trigger disturbance during moving. The aims of this pilot study were (a) to review the literature briefly and (b) to describe the use of the dominant and nondominant foot by farmers and the elderly when mounting a tractor and stairs, respectively. The study also gives ideas for future studies based on both (a) and (b).     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

Debunking the false dichotomy of leadership idealism and pragmatism: Critical evaluation and support of newer genre leadership theories

Leadership theories have shifted over the last few decades from a focus on managerial functions and economic leader–follower exchanges toward greater focus on the interpersonal dynamics occurring within the leadership process. Theories such as transformational, ethical, authentic, and other “newer genre” theories were created to address neglected topics such as leader vision and inspirational messages, transparency, emotional effects, morality, individualized attention, and intellectual stimulation. Critiques of these theories, however, have been raised. In this paper, we address five of those critiques and argue for the validity and practical effectiveness of the new genre theories. Further, we describe how newer genre leadership research should be viewed as a performative epistemology, entailing a process of co‐creation involving scholars and practitioners. Finally, from this view, we provide general ideas for leader development. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.     

森林地表火蔓延模拟方法及其计算机实现

进行了森林火蔓延的研究,对传统的经验公式和模型进行改进,明显发现改进的模型有更好的结果,用计算机巧妙准确地实现了模拟模型,在风力不是特别大,地形变化不是特别剧烈时,该模型有较高精度;并结合火蔓延的主要因素（气象因子、气候、地形等）,进行系统分析,写出算地,编制实现地表火蔓延的预测预报计算机系统软件。这对于有效的组织扑救、减少火灾损失、计算森林火灾的损失评估有重要意义。     

公路隧道火灾逃生疏散研究

以苍岭隧道为背景,首先采用经验计算理论和计算软件building EXODUS相结合的方式,从被困人员的安全疏散时间、高温烟气的影响、隧道横通道的利用率以及人员的疏散行为特性进行了研究。结果表明:中小规模火灾情况下的安全疏散时间控制在8 min之内,高温烟气影响不大,但横通道的利用率不平均,且人员疏散路线相对集中。然后对存在的逃生疏散问题提出针对性建议以及其他相关建议,旨在为更大程度降低事故的严重性和经济财产损失。