A PARAMETRIC MODEL CALIBRATED WITH A PHYSICALLY BASED MODEL FOR RUNOFF PREDICTION FROM UNGAGED STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Recent developments in the numerical solution of the governing partial differential equations for overland and channel flow should make possible physically based models which predict runoff from ungaged streams. However, these models, which represent the watershed by sets of intersecting planes, are complex and require much computer time. Parametric models exist that have the advantage of being relatively simple, and once calibrated are inexpensive to use and require limited data input. In this study, a procedure was developed for calibrating a parametric model against a physically based model, utilizing base areas of one acre and one square mile, with the expectation that base areas can be combined to model real watersheds. Simulation experiments with the physically based model showed that, for the one-acre base area, the dominant parameter (cell storage ratio, K) related to the slope and friction of the planes, whereas for one square-mile areas, the dominant parameters (K plus a lag factor, L) relate to channel properties. These parameters decreased exponentially as rainfall intensity increased.     

EFFECT OF ORIENTATION OF SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED CURVE NUMBERS IN RUNOFF CALCULATIONS1

ABSTRACT: The NRCS curve number approach to runoff estimation has traditionally been to average or “lump” spatial variability into a single number for purposes of expediency and simplicity in calculations. In contrast, the weighted runoff curve number approach, which handles each individual pixel within the watershed separately, tends to result in larger estimates of runoff than the lumped approach. This work proposes further enhancements that consider not only spatial variability, but also the orientation of this variability with respect to the flow aggregation pattern of the drainage network. Results show that the proposed enhancements lead to much reduced estimates of runoff production. A revised model that considers overland flow lengths, consistent with existing NRCS concepts is proposed, which leads to only mildly reduced runoff estimates. Although more physically‐based, this revised model, which accounts directly for spatially distributed curve numbers and flow aggregation, leads to essentially the same results as the original, lumped runoff model when applied to three study watersheds. Philosophical issues and implications concerning the appropriateness of attempting to disaggregate lumped models are discussed.     

DISTRIBUTED RUNOFF FORMULATION DESIGNED FOR A PRECISION AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE MODELING SYSTEM1

A precision scale landscape model designed for agricultural applications is described in this paper. The Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) is a combination of two process‐based models: a diffusive wave runoff model with ponding (described in detail) and a biosphere model with a crops module (briefly reviewed). Several innovations, including numerical formulations for the hydrologic properties of the soil surface with crusting, slope/tillage angle interactions, and change of roughness and detention storage with cumulative precipitation have been included. The model is compared to observations on one 1.8 ha field planted with maize and soybeans during four growing seasons, and one 24 ha field planted with maize during one growing season. Daily average soil moisture is simulated well (within 5 percent volumetric), except in extended runoff/ponding episodes. Physical processes not simulated in the model suggest possible explanations for model errors. Planned improvements for PALMS are also presented.     

STORM RUNOFF PREDICTION BASED ON A SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED TRAVEL TIME METHOD UTILIZING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS1

ABSTRACT: In this study, remotely sensed data and geographic information system (GIS) tools were used to estimate storm runoff response for Simms Creek watershed in the Etonia basin in northeast Florida. Land cover information from digital orthophoto quarter quadrangles (DOQQ), and enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) were analyzed for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000. The corresponding infiltration excess runoff response of the study area was estimated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS‐CN) method. A digital elevation model (DEM)/GIS technique was developed to predict stream response to runoff events based on the travel time from each grid cell to the watershed outlet. A comparison of predicted to observed stream response shows that the model predicts the total runoff volume with an efficiency of 0.98, the peak flow rate at an efficiency of 0.85, and the full direct runoff hydrograph with an average efficiency of 0.65. The DEM/GIS travel time model can be used to predict the runoff response of ungaged watersheds and is useful for predicting runoff hydrographs resulting from proposed large scale changes in the land use.     

VERIFICATION AND APPLICATION OF REGIONAL EQUATIONS FOR THE STORAGE FUNCTION RUNOFF MODEL1

The storage function model is a nonlinear rainfall-runoff model that has been developed for and applied to flood runoff analysis in Japan. This paper extends the model applicability by developing practical equations for estimating model parameters which are appropriate on a regional basis, i.e., so-called regional equations. Previously, the parameters were computed from historical data for a specific basin or from relationships that do not account for land use and topography. To develop the regionalized equations, model parameters were identified for 91 flood events from 22 watersheds in Japan by applying a mathematical optimization technique. Results from 39 of these events were statistically compared and regional relationships were determined as a function of land use, basin area and rainfall intensity. The utility of the estimated equations were tested by computing runoff hydrographs for lumped basins. The estimated parameters were also applied in a distributed watershed model formulation. Both applications showed acceptable results that validate the use of the regionalized relationships.     

APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL TOWARD RUNOFF FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: A reliable forecasting model is essential in real‐time flood forecasting for reducing natural damage. Efforts to develop a real‐time forecasting model over the past two decades have been numerous. This work applies the Grey model to forecast rainfall and runoff owing to the model's relative ability to predict the future using a small amount of historical data. Such a model significantly differs from the stochastic and deterministic models developed previously. Ten historical storm events from two catchment areas in northern Taiwan are selected to calibrate and verify the model. Results in this study demonstrate that the proposed models can reasonably forecast runoff one to four hours ahead, if the Grey error prediction method is further used to update the output of the model.     

MONTHLY RUNOFF PREDICTIONS BASED ON RAINFALL FORECASTS IN A SMALL OKLAHOMA WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Conditions under which monthly rainfall forecasts translate into monthly runoff predictions that could support water resources planning and management activities were investigated on a small watershed in central Oklahoma. Runoff response to rainfall forecasts was simulated using the hydrologic model SWAT. Eighteen scenarios were examined that represented combinations of wet, average, and dry antecedent rainfall conditions, with wet, normal, and dry forecasted rainfall. Results suggest that for the climatic and physiographic conditions under consideration, rainfall forecasts could offer potential application opportunities in surface water resources but only under certain conditions. Pronounced wet and dry antecedent rainfall conditions were shown to have greater impact on runoff than forecasts, particularly in the first month of a forecast period. Large forecast impacts on runoff occurred under wet antecedent conditions, when the fraction of forecasted rainfall contributing to runoff was greatest. Under dry antecedent conditions, most of the forecasted rainfall was absorbed in the soil profile, with little immediate runoff response. Persistent three‐month forecasts produced stronger impacts on runoff than one‐month forecasts due to cumulative effects in the hydrologic system. Runoff response to antecedent conditions and forecasts suggest a highly asymmetric utility function for rainfall forecasts, with greatest decision‐support potential for persistent wet forecasts under wet antecedent conditions when the forecast signal is least dampened by soil‐storage effects. Under average and dry antecedent conditions, rainfall forecasts showed little potential value for practical applications in surface water resources assessments.     

RASTER-BASED HYDROLOGIC MODELING OF SPATIALLY-VARIED SURFACE RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: The proliferation of watershed databases in raster Geographic Information System (GIS) format and the availability of radar-estimated rainfall data foster rapid developments in raster-based surface runoff simulations. The two-dimensional physically-based rainfall-runoff model CASC2D simulates spatially-varied surface runoff while fully utilizing raster GIS and radar-rainfall data. The model uses the Green and Ampt infiltration method, and the diffusive wave formulation for overland and channel flow routing enables overbank flow storage and routing. CASC2D offers unique color capabilities to display the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall, cumulative infiltrated depth, and surface water depth as thunderstorms unfold. The model has been calibrated and independently verified to provide accurate simulations of catchment response to moving rainstorms on watersheds with spatially-varied infiltration. The model can accurately simulate surface runoff from flashfloods caused by intense thunderstorms moving across partial areas of a watershed.     

SIZING OF SURFACE WATER RUNOFF DETENTION PONDS FOR WATER QUALITY IMPROVEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Historically, storm water management programs and criteria have focused on quantity issues related to flooding and drainage system design. Traditional designs were based on large rainfall‐runoff events such as those having two‐year to 100‐year return periods. While these are key criteria for management and control of peak flows, detention basin designs based on these criteria may not provide optimal quality treatment of storm runoff. As evidenced by studies performed by numerous public and private organizations, the water quality impacts of storm water runoff are primarily a function of more frequent rainfall‐runoff events rather than the less frequent events that cause peak flooding. Prior to this study there had been no detailed investigations to characterize the variability of the more frequent rainfall events on Guam. Also, there was a need to develop some criteria that could be applied by designers, developers, and agency officials in order to reduce the impact of storm water runoff on the receiving bodies. The objectives of this paper were three‐fold: (1) characterize the hourly rainfall events with respect to volume, frequency, duration, and the time between storm events; (2) evaluate the rainfall‐runoff characteristics with respect to capture volume for water quality treatment; and (3) prepare criteria for sizing and designing of storm water quality management facilities. The rainfall characterization studies have provided insight into the characteristics of rainstorms that are likely to produce non‐point source pollution in storm water runoff. By far the most significant fmdings are the development of a series of design curves that can be used in the actual sizing of storm water detention and treatment facilities. If applied correctly, these design curves could lead to a reduction of non‐point source pollution to Guam's streams, estuaries, and coastal environments.     

HYDROLOGIC PARAMETERIZATION OF WATERSHEDS FOR RUNOFF PREDICTION USING SWAT1

ABSTRACT: The use of continuous time, distributed parameter hydrologic models like SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has opened several opportunities to improve watershed modeling accuracy. However, it has also placed a heavy burden on users with respect to the amount of work involved in parameterizing the watershed in general and in adequately representing the spatial variability of the watershed in particular. Recent developments in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have alleviated some of the difficulties associated with managing spatial data. However, the user must still choose among various parameterization approaches that are available within the model. This paper describes the important parameterization issues involved when modeling watershed hydrology for runoff prediction using SWAT with emphasis on how to improve model performance without resorting to tedious and arbitrary parameter by parameter calibration. Synthetic and actual watersheds in Indiana and Mississippi were used to illustrate the sensitivity of runoff prediction to spatial variability, watershed decomposition, and spatial and temporal adjustment of curve numbers and return flow contribution. SWAT was also used to predict stream runoff from actual watersheds in Indiana that have extensive subsurface drainage. The results of this study provide useful information for improving SWAT performance in terms of stream runoff prediction in a manner that is particularly useful for modeling ungaged watersheds wherein observed data for calibration is not available.     

WATERSHED MANAGEMENT WITHOUT SURFACE RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Legal, economic, and social constraints prevented the development of a surface outlet from an 878 acre watershed in the eastern Great Plains. However, frequent flooding of potentially excellent cropland within the watershed had to be controlled. The process of considering various alternatives within given constraints and utilizing natural features of the watershed to attain a water management system without surface runoff is presented. The coordinated system includes surface drainage, waterholding structures, and pumping plants. The excellent water control provided permits effective utilization of more than 115 acres of land which was previously of very low productivity.     

PUMP SYSTEM FOR IMPROVING RUNOFF RECORDS DURING WINTER1

ABSTRACT: Freezing winter temperatures can cause icing of outdoor weirs used to measure surface runoff. Ice typically forms in the notch and on the crests of short-crested V-notch weirs, causing incorrect gage heights to be measured. A method for reducing the effects of ice formation on weirs and weir pools using a pump is presented and evaluated. Warmer water from the bottom of the weir pool is pumped to the surface, reducing the opportunity for the water surface to freeze. The pump is shown to work except under extremely cold conditions, improving runoff records from 27 percent to 60 percent. The pump system has no practical effect on measured gage height. Frequency distributions of flow rates and air temperatures under measured ice-free and other weir conditions are presented. Suggestions for use of the pump system under temperature conditions other than those in this study are given.     

A GIS‐ASSISTED DISTRIBUTED WATERSHED MODEL FOR SIMULATING FLOODING AND INUNDATION1

ABSTRACT: A distributed watershed model combining kinematic wave routing, 1‐D dynamic channel‐flow routing, and 2‐D diffusive overland‐flow routing has been developed to simulate flooding and inundation levels of large watersheds. The study watershed was linked to a GIS database and was divided into an upstream mountainous area and a downstream alluvial plain. A kinematic wave routing was adopted at the mountainous area to compute the discharge flowing into the alluvial plain. A 1‐D dynamic channel routing solving the St. Venant equations by the Preissmann method was performed for the main channel of the alluvial plain, whereas a 2‐D overland‐flow routing solving the diffusion wave equation with the Alternating Direction Explicit scheme was used for floodplains. The above two routings were connected by weir‐link discharge formula. The parameters in the model were calibrated and independently verified by single‐event storms. An example application of flooding/inundation analysis was conducted for the Taichung station and the Woozi depot (Taiwan High Speed Rail). Suggested inundation‐proofing measures ‐ including raising ground surface elevation of the station and depot and building a waterproofing exterior wall and their combination ‐ were investigated. It was concluded that building the waterproofing exterior wall had a strong tendency to decrease peak inundation depth.     

AN APPLICATION RUNOFF MODEL STRATEGY FOR UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models for predicting watershed surface flow responses are available, most of which are elaborate nonlinear numerical surface and channel flow models linked with infiltration models. Such models may be used to make predictions for ungaged areas, assuming an acceptable fitting of the model to the topography and roughness of the real system. For some application purposes, these models are impractical because of their complexity and expensive computer solutions. A procedure is developed that uses a complex model of an ungaged area to derive a simpler parametric nonlinear system model for repetitious simulation with input sequences. The predicted flow outputs are obtained with the simpler model at significant savings of money and time. The procedures for constructing a complex kinematic model of a 40 acre (161,880 m²) reference watershed and deriving the simpler system model are outlined. The results of predictions from both models are compared with a selected set of measured events, all having essentially the same initial conditions. Peak discharges ranged from 3 to 118 ft³/sec (0.085 to 3.34 m³/sec), which includes the largest event of record. The inherent limitations of lumped systems models are demonstrated, including the bias caused by their inability to model infiltration losses after rainfall ceases. Computer costs and times for the models were compared. The derived simple model has a cost advantage when repeated use of a model is required. Such an applications hydrologic model has an engineering tradeoff of reduced accuracy, and lumping bias, but is more economical for certain design purposes.     

OPERATING POLICIES FOR A SURFACE/GROUND WATER SYSTEM1

The simulation of the conjunctive use of a surface reservoir and a limestone aquifer is described. The potential yields from each of the sources are of the same order. An important feature of the aquifer is that if the pumpage is reduced, much of the excess water is lost through springs. Five different operating policies are considered which determine whether pumpage should be taken from the reservoir or aquifer. The total safe yields for the historic period 1961–1977 are estimated for each policy and their relative advantages and disadvantages are discussed. The simulation is also carried out for 100 years of generated data to discover the long term consequences.     

WATER LOSS EQUATIONS AND COEFFICIENTS TO ESTIMATE RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL1

Infiltration models are based on physical characteristics of the soil and initial soil moisture. For a given soil it is based on the initial soil moisture distribution. A computer simulation model for flood runoff systems (FH-Model) was used to analyze 39 sets of rainfall-runoff data on four small watersheds ranging in size from 17 to 342 square kilometers located in the Yamaska River basin in Quebec. From these analyses, parameters and coefficients have been determined for a water loss (infiltration) equation. A method for determining the loss parameters, using a nonlinear least square curve fitting technique, is presented. Expressions were made to relate the loss parameters to antecedent precipitation. The equations were tested on 11 storm rainfall and runoff events on a watershed located in the same region and close agreements were found.     

AN AUTO-CAD-BASED WATERSHED INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL HEC-11

ABSTRACT: A micro computer based Watershed Information System (W.LS.) is developed to assist in the preparation of input files for the hydrologic simulation model HEC-1. This system consists of three phases. Phase I utilizes the capabilities of AutoCAD version 9 and three programs, BASINS, PLANES, and CHANNELS, to extract, organize, and display watershed data. Phase II uses the program CN to calculate some HEC-1 parameter values. Phase II utilizes the program HECUPDATE to create HEC-1 input files. The system input includes topographic, soils, land use, watershed geometry data, and a skeletal HEC-1 input file. Output from the system includes a summary User Reference File, a Soils File, a Land Use File, a Watershed Geometry File, a Curve Number File, and a HEC-1 input file, which is ready to run. The W.I.S. has been applied to Macks Creek Watershed in southwest Idaho.     

APPLICATION OF PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION METHOD FOR CALIBRATING TANK MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Many automatic calibration processes have been proposed to efficiently calibrate the 16 parameters involved in the four‐layered tank model. The Multistart Powell and Stuffed Complex Evolution (SCE) methods are considered the best two procedures. Two rainfall events were designed to compare the performance and efficiency of these two methods. The first rainfall event is short term and the second designed for long term rainfall data collection. Both rainfall events include a lengthy no‐rainfall period. Two sets of upper and lower values for the search range were selected for the numerical tests. The results show that the Multistart Powell and SCE methods are able to obtain the true values for the 16 parameters with a sufficiently long no‐rainfall period after a rainfall event. In addition, by using two selected objective functions, one based on root mean square error and one based on root mean square relative error criteria, it is found that the no‐rainfall period lengths necessary to obtain the converged true values for the 16 parameters are roughly the same. The SCE method provides a more efficient search based on an appropriate preliminary search range. The Multistart Powell method, on the other hand, leads to more accurate search results when there is no suitable search range selected based on the parameter calibration experience.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF ACCURATE CURVE NUMBERS IN THE ESTIMATION OF STORM RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Storm runoff as calculated by the runoff curve number method is shown to be of varying sensitivity to both input rainfall and curve number. Using an assumed input error of 10%, a runoff error chart is given. Up to about 9 inches of rainfall, runoff is more sensitive to curve number than to rainfall. The importance of accurate curve number selection in this range is stressed.     

EFFECTS OF URBAN LAKES ON SURFACE RUNOFF AND WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: The effects of an artificial lake system upon the runoff hydrology of a small watershed have been determined by comparing the quantity and quality of runoff with that of an adjacent and similar watershed containing no lakes. Lake storage reduced peak discharge and slowed flood recession rate downstream. Water stored within the lakes is generally of different quality than downstream surface runoff. Salt stored in the lakes from winter deicing is released during periods of surface runoff throughout the rest of the year. During summer or fall runoff events, lake outflow dominates the salt load of the outlet stream, generating double-peaked load hydrographs in which the second, or lake-induced, crest is many times larger than the peak which corresponds to maximum flow. On the other hand, the lakes cause a reduction of salt loads and concentration in winter runoff. The concentration and loads of ions which are not related to road salt are generally less affected by the lakes, although they are increased substantially in the fall.