突发事件应急预案体系概念设计研究

在复习国内外突发事件应急预案体系发展沿革基础上,针对我国应急预案顶层设计需求,分析应急管理体系建设主要经验和现实问题,提出应急预案体系建设首先应以重大突发事件情景构建为基础;以加强应急准备为指导思想和提高应急准备能力为核心目标;以系统论和系统工程为基本方法,形成具有战略性、前瞻性、继承性和致用性应急预案体系框架的总体设计,认为从应急管理长远发展上考量,突发事件应急预案系统结构其重要度远大于单个应急预案的完整性。进一步论述了今后我国应急预案体系总体结构、功能分类及其相互关系,并建议在首先完成顶层愿景设计基础上再逐渐分阶段实现并形成循环持续改进机制。     

基于随机Petri网的城市轨道交通应急系统安全性能分析

为分析城市轨道交通应急系统安全性能,采用随机Petri网理论,考虑运营生产、治安消防和自然灾害3类应急预案,构建城市轨道交通应急系统的随机Petri网模型,并基于模型的马尔科夫链得到系统处于各种状态时的稳态概率表达式,通过改变各个变迁的触发速率,分析系统各种状态稳态概率的变化情况。结果表明,这个模型能够体现影响城市轨道交通应急系统安全性能的各因素之间的关系,并能通过数值变化趋势反映不同事故情况下提高安全性能的关键所在,达到分析系统安全性能的目的。     

Attributes of Occupational Injury Among Workers in the Chemical Industry and Safety Issues

Case-study research was carried out with a view to find the attributes of occupational injury among workers in the chemical industry and to enhance safety issues. Injury data were collected and processed in terms of different variables, such as age, gender, skills, type of hazard, etc. Pareto analysis was then applied to find a pattern of occupational injury among the workers. The study revealed that 79.52% of the injured workers were in the 40–59 age group; 57.14% of accidents occurred during the 1st shift; 73.26% of accidents caused injury to hands, feet, chest to thigh, arms and eyes; and 70.93% of injuries were caused by pumps, carrying and lifting, vehicles, pipelines, valves, and grinding. Surprisingly, no one was injured in the group of temporary workers. The paper also provides specific suggestions followed by some action plans.     

Attributes of occupational injury among workers in the chemical industry and safety issues.

Case-study research was carried out with a view to find the attributes of occupational injury among workers in the chemical industry and to enhance safety issues. Injury data were collected and processed in terms of different variables, such as age, gender, skills, type of hazard, etc. Pareto analysis was then applied to find a pattern of occupational injury among the workers. The study revealed that 79.52% of the injured workers were in the 40-59 age group; 57.14% of accidents occurred during the 1st shift; 73.26% of accidents caused injury to hands, feet, chest to thigh, arms and eyes; and 70.93% of injuries were caused by pumps, carrying and lifting, vehicles, pipelines, valves, and grinding. Surprisingly, no one was injured in the group of temporary workers. The paper also provides specific suggestions followed by some action plans.     

Testing the impact of shift schedules on organizational variables

Prior organizational shift work research has focused on studying either nurses or blue collar manufacturing employees, and been somewhat limited by shift size limitations. Using a unique sample of 705 full‐time medical technologists (MTs), across distinct fixed day, evening, night and rotating shifts, this study found that day shift MTs had lower job content routinization (more task enrichment) than evening, night and rotating shift MTs. Contrary to previous research, rotating shift MTs did not have lower work attitudes than fixed shift MTs. Results are further discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

事故经济损失评估理论与方法研究

简要分析了国内外事故损失评估理论与方法的共同特点及问题 ,对事故经济损失的概念和计算范围进行了比较清晰的界定 ,给出了新的事故经济损失分类方法 ,在此基础上提出了新的事故经济损失评估理论 ,建立了评估模型 ,明确了从企业角度和国家角度评估事故经济损失的方法     

行为安全研究进展追溯与述评

为推动行为安全研究的发展和应用,通过文献综述方法,确定广义行为安全研究对象,从理论和管理2个维度来解析行为安全研究进展。在理论层面,通过分析行为机理来阐述行为安全理论基础,提炼行为影响因素并探究因素间作用关系;在管理层面,追溯行为安全管理在不同阶段、不同行业的应用现状,提出改进方案。结果表明:行为安全理论基础和影响因素分析2方面的研究较为深入,但是仍需夯实相关模型并引入先进的研究方法,而行为安全管理应用的时效性和针对性较差,需要在组织因素和个体因素结合、干预的效果、信息技术应用等方面进行改进。     

Recent developments in young driver education, training and licensing in Australia

Australian young driver education and training approaches have differed from the mandatory school-based programs found internationally; generally comprising voluntary programs conducted outside of licensing. This paper reports on recent developments pertaining to the pre-learner, learner, and provisional license stages. Given its important context, state-based graduated driver licensing systems are also reviewed. There has been a shift toward starting driver education younger (pre-learner), greater involvement of parents, and more school-based programs; many now conducted by licensing authorities. The majority of initiatives are yet to be evaluated, particularly relative to crash outcomes; however, some studies suggest other positive outcomes, including increased supervised practice and delayed licensure. Furthermore, the federal government is proceeding with plans for a national license-based program. Several jurisdictions have also announced the introduction of passenger and nighttime restrictions on provisional licenses. Together these initiatives offer promise of reductions in young driver-related fatalities and injuries in the very near future.     

安全管理学及其具体教学内容的构建

通过对安全管理实务和安全管理活动的理论分析,首先,把安全管理学广义地定义为关于事故预防的科学,并分析得到其详细内容、逻辑结构和应用原理;然后,将安全管理学狭义地定义为与安全相关的关于行为协调的科学,并选择性地构建其具体的、与其他课程没有或较少交叉的具体教学内容。     

模糊群体决策方法在应急决策中的应用

在分析应急预案内容及应急决策特点的基础上,针对应急决策中许多信息无法定量描述的问题,运用模糊集合理论,建立了在事故灾难复杂环境下对应急决策进行动态调整的模糊群体决策方法。该方法包括构造模糊偏好关系、设计备选方案选择的多属性群体决策模型和群体决策一致性的检验标准等内容,可以辅助应急决策者选择最佳决策方案。通过实证表明,该计算方法及实用效果,为突发事故应急预案的制订和事故现场的应急决策提供参考。     

有意违章行为动因分析与控制对策探讨

对有意违章行为的含义进行了界定 ,并对有意违章行为产生的动因进行了详细分析 ,提出了有意违章行为的动因主要包含违章行为与遵章行为满足生理心理需要作用的差值ΔXW、违章行为会受到法规惩处的作用FW、违章行为可导致人身伤害的主观感觉的作用RW3个方面。同时对 3个方面的动因按弗鲁姆的激励理论进行了转化 ,给出了各自的含义说明。笔者按动因分析的结果 ,给出了控制有意违章行为的步骤和措施     

重大事故应急预案评审技术研究

重大事故应急预案评审是重大事故应急预案管理中的一个重要环节,为了进一步提高应急预案的针对性、实用性和可操作性,完善重大事故应急预案体系,应进行重大事故应急预案的评审。本文主要介绍重大事故应急预案评审的目的及原则,重大事故应急预案评审应遵循的基本准则,以及重大事故应急预案评审的基本方法和内容要求。     

矿井通风阻力测定中位能计算方法初探

通过对现场通风阻力测定数据的分析,将矿井通风学伯诺里方程中位能中的Z值,由原定义的测点海拔标高值,修正为测点距通风系统中最低点的垂直距离,消除了原定义所引起的位能计算误差。     

应急预案的形式化描述

为了更好地利用信息技术支持应急管理，将应急预案与应急信息系统有机地关联起来，需要对应急预案进行形式化描述。应急预案形式化描述是建立应急预案理论框架的前提和基础。本文基于对应急预案和应急响应过程的分析，提出对应急预案的描述方法，包括组织结构描述、应急资源描述和应急过程描述。     

Team-Based Risk Assessment and Action Plans as Participatory Methods for Safe Patient Handling in Two Swedish Municipal Care Homes for the Elderly

Objective. We investigated the usefulness of a team-based risk assessment method in patient transfer situations in municipal care homes for the elderly. Methods. Evaluation of risk assessment and action plans carried out in 2009. Focus group interviews with care givers and one-to-one interviews with managers and occupational therapists. Results. The evaluation showed that action plans and interventions were developed for each resident with identified risk connected with movement/transfer in daily life. Twenty-six patients (28%) of a total number of 94 were assigned to the “no risk” category regarding movement/transfer situations in daily life. The other 68 patients (72%) required further interventions, which were documented in action plans. The interviews indicated that the approach of team-based risk assessment and action plans was perceived as a functional participatory method aiming to improve daily life and work. Conclusion. Systematic team-based risk assessment and action plans benefit staff as well as residents at care homes for the elderly.     

An approach to estimating the individual risk for toxic-gas releases using the load-resistance model

A new approach to quantify the uncertainty of the individual risk for toxic releases is presented in this paper. The individual risk is defined as the probability of fatality per year. The probability of fatality is calculated by a classical load-resistance model based on reliability (survivability) theory. The load effect is defined as the concentration intensity to which a human is exposed. Furthermore, the resistance is defined as the human tolerance to a certain concentration load in this study. The Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the probability distributions of outputs (the load effect and resistance) propagated from the uncertainties of the input variables. The fatality probability exceeding a limit state can then be obtained by comparing pairs of samples from the load effect and the resistance distributions. The separation of sampling from the load and resistance distributions is also proposed to allow more efficient calculation than that achieved by the classical Monte Carlo method. The analytical risk estimates computed by the load-resistance model are compared to conventional risk estimates that correspond to the upper-end percentile of the load-effect distribution. A case study shows that the conventional risk estimates can be directed to wrong decisions when the load-effect distribution has upper-end tail heaviness.     

From the CDC: A qualitative study of middle and high school professionals' experiences and views on concussion: Identifying opportunities to support the return to school process

Introduction: Current research recommends that students returning to school after a concussion should receive a return to school plan that is tailored to their individual symptoms. School professionals play important roles in designing and implementing the supports outlined in return to school plans. Methods: This qualitative study explored middle and high school professionals' experiences with concussion, particularly their knowledge and perceptions of the injury and their experience with supporting students with concussion. Six focus groups were conducted with two to four school professionals per group, including two groups of teachers, two groups of school psychologists and counselors, and two groups of school nurses. Findings were coded into four categories: (a) challenges with identifying a concussion; (b) strategies for communicating with students about concussion; (c) barriers to implementing return to learn plans; and (d) establishing a collaborative school support team. Results: School professionals who participated in the focus groups were knowledgeable about concussion and the importance of helping their student recover. Participants also understood the importance of recognizing the signs and symptoms of concussion and communicating with students and parents about this injury. However, the study participants reported various challenges related to concussion identification and management, including the perceived validity of concussion symptom reporting by students. A team-based approach was mentioned across all groups as the preferred method for school-based concussion management for students. Conclusion: School professionals in this study were eager to address concussion in their schools, but desire guidance on how to overcome social norms around concussion identification and reporting. In addition, there is a need for consistent use of written instructions from healthcare providers to help guide return to learn (RTL) accommodations. Practical applications: The findings from this study can help inform the integration of concussion, and other health, management plans in schools.     

On the origins of informal hierarchy: The interactive role of formal leadership and task complexity

Informal hierarchies are a common and important feature of many groups, yet we know little about the antecedent conditions that determine the strength of such hierarchies. Building on theory that has depicted hierarchy as a mechanism for reducing uncertainty and creating structure, we posit that informal hierarchies emerge most strongly in situations that are ambiguous, ill‐defined, and unstructured. Three independent studies confirm this notion, demonstrating that groups develop particularly strong informal hierarchies in situations characterized by both a lack of strong formal leadership and high task complexity. These findings support the theoretical notion that formal and informal hierarchies are closely related, but only under conditions of high task complexity in which the structuring functions of hierarchies are most crucial.     

危险废物多目标规划模型研究

根据危险废物系统管理的原则,采用全过程管理理念,运用最优化理论和系统分析方法,充分考虑各种因素,建立了危险废物多目标规划模型,并提出模型的求解方法。考虑废物间的相容性和复合效用函数,将所建立的危险废物多目标规划模型应用于重庆市主城区危险废物系统管理规划。结果表明,在设计的案例和场景下,分别以环境影响、经济因素、综合考虑环境因素和经济因素为首要因素考虑时,得到不同的优化方案。该模型的应用为环境管理者对危险废物系统管理提供了决策支持。     

Expert system application for prioritizing preventive actions for shift work: shift expert

Introduction. Shift patterns, work hours, work arrangements and worker motivations have increasingly become key factors for job performance. The main objective of this article is to design an expert system that identifies the negative effects of shift work and prioritizes mitigation efforts according to their importance in preventing these negative effects. The proposed expert system will be referred to as the shift expert. Methods. A thorough literature review is conducted to determine the effects of shift work on workers. Our work indicates that shift work is linked to demographic variables, sleepiness and fatigue, health and well-being, and social and domestic conditions. These parameters constitute the sections of a questionnaire designed to focus on 26 important issues related to shift work. The shift expert is then constructed to provide prevention advice at the individual and organizational levels, and it prioritizes this advice using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model, which considers comparison matrices provided by users during the prioritization process. An empirical study of 61 workers working on three rotating shifts is performed. After administering the questionnaires, the collected data are analyzed statistically, and then the shift expert produces individual and organizational recommendations for these workers.