Climate change scenarios to facilitate stakeholder engagement in agricultural adaptation

To prepare agricultural systems for climate change, scientists need to be able to effectively engage with land managers and policy makers to explore potential solutions. An ongoing challenge in engagement is to distil the complexity of climate-change-management-change interactions in agro-ecological systems to identify responses that are most important for adaptation planning. This paper presents an approach for selecting climate change scenarios to provide a focal point for engaging with stakeholders to evaluate adaptation options and communicate assessment outcomes. We illustrate how scenarios selected with the approach can be used by evaluating climate change impacts and an adaptation option for livestock industries in the north-east Australian rangelands. Climate change impacts on forage production, animal liveweight gain and soil loss are found to track projected climate changes in four pasture communities; increasing by up to 50% and declining by up to 110% in response to doubled atmospheric carbon-dioxide (CO₂), 4°C warming, and +20% to ?40% changes in mean annual rainfall. The effectiveness of reducing grazing pressure as an adaptation option shows a similar response; resulting in higher forage production (up to 40%), animal liveweight gains (up to 59%) and gross margins (up to 40%), and reduced soil erosion (down by 91%) per hectare relative to the baseline management. The results show that a few key scenarios may be selected to represent the range of global climate model (GCM) projections for use in assessing and communicating impacts and adaptation; simplifying the assessments and allowing limits to the effectiveness of adaptation options to be explored. The approach provides a framework for capturing and communicating trends in climate change impacts and the utility of options, which are required for successful engagement of stakeholders in finding viable adaption responses.     

Climate vulnerability index - measure of climate change vulnerability to communities: a case of rural Lower Himalaya,India

Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) is being proposed to assess climate change vulnerability of communities with a case study. The index consists of household parameters of all the three dimensions of vulnerability such as Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capability. Exposure is defined by ‘Natural disaster and Climate variability’, however Sensitivity by ‘Health’, Food’, and ‘Water’ and Adaptive Capability by ‘Socio-demographic profile’, ‘Livelihood strategies’, and ‘Social networks’. Respective parameters were based on the peers and literature. The CVI vulnerable status ranges from high (0) to low (1). Household questionnaire survey was undertaken from two regions namely, near to district (NDH) and away to district (ADH), in Srinagar, Uttrakhand, India. Data for desired parameters for CVI was collected from 50 randomly selected households. Data were aggregated using a composite index and differential vulnerabilities were compared. High vulnerability was observed for livelihood strategies, food and natural disaster for ADH households, and health and water for NDH households. It was found that the adaptive capability and sensitivity of ADH households was higher than NDH, however, exposure realization was similar in both the regions. The CVI was 0.69 and 0.64 for NDH and ADH, respectively, suggests high vulnerability to NDH households. This pragmatic CVI approach may be used to assess and monitor vulnerability under various stress condition, and/or evaluate potential program/ policy effectiveness in various data-scarce regions by comparing various anticipated scenarios with baseline. Further, the result obtained by index may have implications for developing adaptation or coping strategies to the region.     

Climate change control: the Lindahl solution

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate different burden sharing rules with respect to abatement of carbon emissions. We evaluate seven different rules both in terms of their redistributive impact and by the extent to which they realize the aim of optimal abatement. We show that the Lindahl solution, where the burden sharing rule of carbon abatement is determined by each region’s willingness to pay, is to be preferred above the non-cooperative Nash outcome. Poor regions however would prefer the social planner outcome with a global permit market, because then the burden sharing rule has a secondary role of income redistribution by means of transfers from rich to poor, on top of its primary role of assigning abatement burdens. Based on these findings, we argue that in order to control global greenhouse gas emissions, the level of individual country emission abatement effort should be a function of their willingness to pay to curb climate change, rather than their historical emissions or ability to abate.     

Climate change effects on pesticide usage reduction efforts: a case study in China

China has announced plans to stabilize its pesticide use by 2020. Yet, future climate change will possibly increase the difficulty of meeting this goal. This study uses econometric estimation to explore how climate impacts Chinese pesticide usage and subsequently to project the future implications of climate change on pesticide use. The results indicate that both atmospheric temperature and precipitation increase pesticide usage. Under current climate change projections, pesticide usage will rise by +1.1 to 2.5% by 2040, +2.4 to 9.1% by 2070, and +2.6 to 18.3% by 2100. Linearly extrapolating the results to 2020 yields an approximately 0.5 to 1.2% increase. Thus, to achieve stabilization, more severe actions are needed to address this increase. Possible actions to achieve the reductions needed include using better monitoring and early warning networks so as to permit early responses to climate change-stimulated increases, enhancing information dissemination, altering crop mix, and promoting nonchemical control means. Additionally, given that increased pesticide usage generally increases health and environmental damage, there may be a need to more widely disseminate safe application procedure information while also strengthening compliance with food safety regulations. Furthermore, pest control strategies will need to be capable of evolving as climate change proceeds. Globally, efforts could be made to (1) scale up agrometeorological services, especially in developing countries; (2) use international frameworks to better align the environmental and health standards in developing countries with those in developed countries; and (3) adapt integrated pest management practices to climate change, especially for fruits and vegetables.     

Climate change adaptation in the Sahel

Climate change adaptation now occupies central stage on the agenda of most environmental initiatives in Africa. Our current understanding on the state of adaptation is limited, however, both globally and in Africa in particular. This study examines the status of adaptation in the Sahel by reviewing the primary peer review literature that reports concrete climate change adaptation actions. Based on an analysis of 70 peer review papers that document 414 discrete adaptations, we create a snap shot of adaptations developed between 1975 and 2015, and also calculate the percentages of adaptation. The results show that from a country to country perspective, Kenya has the highest number of reported adaptation actions (75 or 18.1%). The percentages indicate that the adaptive capacity of the entire study area is generally low for all the countries being that the highest country-level percentage is recorded in Kenya and it is 18%. Regionally, West Africa has more adaptation actions (261 or 63%) when compared to other regions of the Sahel. Regional level percentages suggest a higher level of adaptation at the regional level being that the percentage falls within the high scale range. The most commonly used adaptation actions reported are income diversification and water harnessing respectively. When categorized, technically related adaptation actions dominate the adaptation charts. The decade 2008–2016 recorded the highest number of adaptations (65.2%). Adaptation actions are also reported to be triggered by climatic and non-climatic drivers which both record high frequencies but the climatic drivers (98%) of adaptation are slightly dominant relative to the non-climatic drivers (95%). These results should be viewed as proxies of climate change adaptation as much information may be found in grey literature and non-peer review national communications which are left out here because of their relative low standardization and acceptability due to the absence of peer review.     

Climate change and mining in Canada

Climate is an important component of the operating environment for the Canadian mining sector. However, in recent years mines across Canada have been affected by significant climatic hazards, several which are regarded to be symptomatic of climate change. For the mining sector, climate change is a pressing environmental threat and a significant business risk. The extent to which the mining sector is able to mitigate its own impact and adapt to climate change will affect its long-term success and prosperity, and have profound economic consequences for host communities. This paper draws upon case studies conducted with mining operations in Canada involving in-depth interviews with mining professionals and analysis of secondary sources to characterize the vulnerability of the Canadian mining industry to climate change. Five key findings are discussed: i) mines in the case studies are affected by climate events that are indicative of climate change, with examples of negative impacts over the past decade; ii) most mine infrastructure has been designed assuming that the climate is not changing; iii) most industry stakeholders interviewed view climate change as a minor concern; iv) limited adaption planning for future climate change is underway; v) significant vulnerabilities exist in the post-operational phase of mines. This paper argues for greater collaboration among mining companies, regulators, scientists and other industry stakeholders to develop practical adaptation strategies that can be integrated into existing and new mine operations, including in the post-operational phase.     

Climate change and transdisciplinary science: Problematizing the integration imperative

In this article we critically examine the ‘integration imperative’ in transdisciplinary environmental science and build on social constructivist and political theories to suggest alternative approaches of knowledge co-production in transdisciplinary settings. Our argument builds upon a body of literature in social studies of science to cull insights about knowledge co-production, social learning, and the ecology of team science, particularly as it relates to climate change adaptation. Couched in this transdisciplinary literature, we demonstrate, is the assumption that integration necessarily can and should be a regulative ideal. We critique this assumption by examining the ‘messy’ politics of achieving consensus among radically different, and sometimes irreconcilable, ways of knowing. We argue that the integration imperative conceals the friction, antagonism, and power inherent in knowledge co-production, which in turn can exclude innovative and experimental ways of understanding and adapting to climate change. By way of conclusion, the final section explores three alternative models of knowledge co-production – triangulation, the multiple evidence-based approach, and scenario building – and illustrates their application in the context of transdisciplinary research in climate change adaptation in the arctic, focusing on alternative means of cross-boundary engagement with indigenous ways of knowing.     

Climate change adaptation in the ski industry

Regardless of the success of climate change mitigation efforts, the international community has concluded that societies around the world will need to adapt to some magnitude of climate change in the 21st century. While some economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources and construction) have been actively engaged in climate change adaptation research for years, adaptation has received scant consideration within the tourism-recreation industry. This is particularly the case for adaptation by tourism operators (supply-side). One exception where progress on supply-side climate adaptation has been made is the ski industry. This paper provides a brief overview of the literature on the implications of climate change for the international ski industry and how adaptation by ski area operators has been treated within these studies. This is followed by an inventory of climate adaptation practices currently used by ski industry stakeholders, including the historical development of certain key adaptations and constraints to wider use. The characteristics of ski areas with higher adaptive capacity are identified. Considering the highly competitive nature of the ski industry and the generally low climate change risk appraisal within the industry, climate change adaptation is anticipated to remain individualistic and reactive for some time. With only a few exceptions, the existing climate change literature on winter tourism has not considered the wide range of adaptation options identified in this paper and has likely overestimated potential damages. An important task for future studies is to develop methodologies to incorporate adaptation so that a more accurate understanding of the vulnerability of the international ski industry can be ascertained.     

Climate change and the geography of weed damage: Analysis of U.S. maize systems suggests the potential for significant range transformations

By the end of the century, climate change projections under a “business-as-usual” emissions scenario suggest a globally averaged warming of 2.4–6.4 °C. If these forecasts are realized, cropping systems are likely to experience significant geographic range transformations among damaging endemic weed species and new vulnerabilities to exotic weed invasions. To anticipate these changes and to devise management strategies for proactively addressing them, it is necessary to characterize the environmental conditions that make specific weed species abundant, competitive, and therefore damaging the production of particular crops (i.e. defining the damage niche). In this study, U.S. maize is used as a model system to explore the implications of climate change on the distribution of damaging agricultural weeds. To accomplish this, we couple ensemble climate change projections of annual temperature and precipitation with survey data of troublesome weed species in maize. At the state scale, space-for-time substitution techniques are used to suggest the potential magnitude of change among damaging weed communities. To explore how the geography of damage for specific species may evolve over the next century, bioclimatic range rules were derived for two weed species that are pervasive in the Northern (Abutilon theophrasti Medicus, ABUTH) and Southern (Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers., SORHA) U.S. Results from both analyses suggest that the composition of damaging weed communities may be fundamentally altered by climate change. In some states, potential changes in the coming decades are commensurate to those possible by the end of the century. Regions such as the Northeastern U.S. may prove particularly vulnerable with emerging climate conditions favoring few weed species of present-day significance. In contrast, regions like the mid-South are likely to experience fewer shifts even with a similar magnitude in climate change. By the end of the century in the U.S. Corn Belt, cold-tolerant species like A. theophrasti may be of minor importance whereas S. halepense, a predominantly Southern U.S. weed species at present, may become common and damaging to maize production with its damage niche advancing 200–600 km north of its present-day distribution.     

Climate change vulnerability assessments as catalysts for social learning: four case studies in south-eastern Australia

Technical assessments of vulnerability and/or risk are increasingly being undertaken to assess the impacts of climate change. Underlying this is the belief that they will bring clarity to questions regarding the scale of institutional investments required, plausible adaptation policies and measures, and the timing of their implementation. Despite the perceived importance of technical assessments in 'evidence-based' decision environments, assessments cannot be undertaken independent of values and politics, nor are they capable of eliminating the uncertainty that clouds decision-making on climate adaptation As such, assessments can trigger as many questions as they answer, leaving practitioners and stakeholders to question their value. This paper explores the value of vulnerability/risk assessments in climate change adaptation planning processes as a catalyst for learning in four case studies in Southeastern Australia. Data were collected using qualitative interviews with stakeholders involved in the assessments and analysed using a social learning framework. This analysis revealed that detailed and tangible strategies or actions often do not emerge directly from technical assessments. However, it also revealed that the assessments became important platforms for social learning. In providing these platforms, assessments present opportunities to question initial assumptions, explore multiple framings of an issue, generate new information, and galvanise support for collective actions. This study highlights the need for more explicit recognition and understanding of the important role social learning plays in climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning more broadly.     

区域农村土地市场发育的农户行为响应与农业土地利用变化——以江苏省苏州市、南京市、扬州市村庄及农户调查为例

在江苏省苏州市、南京市、扬州市各自选择了2个村的基础上,运用对240个农户的抽样调查资料,建立了区域农业土地利用变化分析的数量经济模型,较为深入地分析了农村土地流转市场引导下的农户行为对于农业土地利用变化的影响。研究结果表明,在农户决策行为起主导作用的前提下,农业土地利用正在逐步由传统的大田作物向效益更高的经济作物和水产养殖等地类转化;农户家庭非农就业水平的提高有效地推进了这一转化;同时,农户受教育水平的高低以及政府行为都在一定程度上影响着农业土地利用变化。最后从区域非农产业和城镇化发展、深化农村土地产权的物权化改革、农村社会保障制度的完善、建立农村土地流转中介机制、进一步规范政府行为及积极推进农村户籍制度改革等方面提出了一些政策性建议。     

Climate change and forests in India: adaptation opportunities and challenges

Climate change is projected to lead to shift of forest types leading to irreversible damage to forests by rendering several species extinct and potentially affecting the livelihoods of local communities and the economy. Approximately 47% and 42% of tropical dry deciduous grids are projected to undergo shifts under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios respectively, as opposed to less than 16% grids comprising of tropical wet evergreen forests. Similarly, the tropical thorny scrub forest is projected to undergo shifts in majority of forested grids under A2 (more than 80%) as well as B2 scenarios (50% of grids). Thus the forest managers and policymakers need to adapt to the ecological as well as the socio-economic impacts of climate change. This requires formulation of effective forest management policies and practices, incorporating climate concerns into long-term forest policy and management plans. India has formulated a large number of innovative and progressive forest policies but a mechanism to ensure effective implementation of these policies is needed. Additional policies and practices may be needed to address the impacts of climate change. This paper discusses an approach and steps involved in the development of an adaptation framework as well as policies, strategies and practices needed for mainstreaming adaptation to cope with projected climate change. Further, the existing barriers which may affect proactive adaptation planning given the scale, accuracy and uncertainty associated with assessing climate change impacts are presented.     

Climate change: linking adaptation and mitigation through agroforestry

Agriculture is the human enterprise that is most vulnerable to climate change. Tropical agriculture, particularly subsistence agriculture is particularly vulnerable, as smallholder farmers do not have adequate resources to adapt to climate change. While agroforestry may play a significant role in mitigating the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG), it also has a role to play in helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. In this paper, we examine data on the mitigation potential of agroforestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. We then present the scientific evidence that leads to the expectation that agroforestry also has an important role in climate change adaptation, particularly for small holder farmers. We conclude with priority research questions that need to be answered concerning the role of agroforestry in both mitigation and adaptation to climate change.     

Climate change impact, mitigation and adaptation strategies for agricultural and water resources, in Ganga Plain (India)

Agriculture consumes more than two-thirds of global fresh water out of which 90 % is used by developing countries. Freshwater consumption worldwide is expected to rise another 25 %by 2030 due to increase in population from 6.6 billion currently to about 8 billion by 2030 and over 9 billion by 2050. Worldwide climate change and variability are affecting water resources and agricultural production and in India Ganga Plain region is one of them. Hydroclimatic changes are very prominent in all the regions of Ganga Plain. Climate change and variability impacts are further drying the semi-arid areas and may cause serious problem of water and food scarcity for about 250 million people of the area. About 80 million ha out of total 141 million ha net cultivated area of India is rainfed, which contributes approximately 44 % of total food production has been severely affected by climate change. Further changing climatic conditions are causing prominent hydrological variations like change in drainage density, river morphology (tectonic control) & geometry, water quality and precipitation. Majority of the river channels seen today in the Ganga Plain has migrated from their historic positions. Large scale changes in land use and land cover pattern, cropping pattern, drainage pattern and over exploitation of water resources are modifying the hydrological cycle in Ganga basin. The frequency of floods and drought and its intensity has increased manifold. Ganga Plain rivers has changed their course with time and the regional hydrological conditions shows full control over the rates and processes by which environments geomorphically evolve. Approximately 47 % of total irrigated area of the country is located in Ganga Plain, which is severely affected by changing climatic conditions. In long run climate change will affect the quantity and quality of the crops and the crop yield is going to be down. This will increase the already high food inflation in the country. The warmer atmospheric temperatures and drought conditions will increase soil salinization, desertification and drying-up of aquifer, while flooding conditions will escalate soil erosion, soil degradation and sedimentation. The aim of this study is to understand the impact of different hydrological changes due to climatic conditions and come up with easily and economically feasible solutions effective in addressing the problem of water and food scarcity in future.     

Climate change in the urban environment: Advancing,measuring and achieving resiliency

Climate change poses new and unique challenges that threaten lives and livelihoods. Given the increasing risks and looming uncertainty of climate change, increasing attention has been directed towards adaptation, or the strategies that enable humanity to persist and thrive through climate change the best it can. Though climate change is a global problem often discussed at the national scale, urban areas are increasingly seen as having a distinct role, and distinctive motivation and capacity, for adaptation. The 12 articles in this special issue explore ways of understanding and addressing climate change impacts on urban areas. Together they reveal young but rapidly growing scholarship on how to measure, and then overcome, challenges of climate change. Two key themes emerge in this issue: 1) that we must identify and then overcome current barriers to urban adaptation and 2) frameworks/metrics are necessary to identify and track adaptation progress in urban settings. Both of these themes point to the power of indicators and other quantitative information to inform priorities and illuminate the pathway forward for adaptation. As climate change is an entirely new challenge, careful measurement that enables investment by private and public parties is necessary to provide efficient outcomes that benefit the greatest number of people.     

中国中部农区乡村重构特征及其地域模式——以江汉平原为例

以人地关系理论为基础,以乡村地域系统内部要素变化解析乡村重构特征、外部环境变化解读乡村重构机理、外源驱动因素与内生响应要素耦合解译乡村重构模式。基于江汉平原的实证研究表明：（1）研究期内乡村地域持续经历重构过程,表现为乡村重构综合指数不断增加,高值区主要沿域内交通干线分布、低值区主要分布长江沿线和平原腹地;（2）乡村重构机制主要表现为工业化、城镇化、市场化等外源驱动因素与经济、社会、空间等内生要素的耦合作用,非农产业规模扩张引发乡村人口外迁和就业转移,进而推动人口、土地和产业等乡村“存量”要素重组;（3）经济—社会重构主导是江汉平原乡村重构的主流模式,产业结构和生产方式变化加剧乡村生态环境和人居环境恶化,乡村振兴及其可持续发展面临水环境污染和水灾害侵袭的双重挑战。研究框架能够揭示江汉平原乡村地理剧变特征,中国中部农产品主产区的乡村重构具有与发达地区不尽相同的图景。研究结果意在为乡村地理研究和乡村振兴实践提供有益启示。     

Canadian prairie rural communities: their vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities to drought

Droughts can have severe negative effects on the environment, society and economy. The drought of 2001–2002 caused severe strain on economic and social activities in western Canada, particularly on rural communities through changes in water resources. This paper examines physical and social vulnerabilities and associated adaptation measures undertaken and the adaptive capacity in communities in the South Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada. Although all of these communities were exposed to the 2001–2002 drought, they had different levels of impacts, resulting in different types of drought adaptation measures, some due to experience with previous droughts and some in response to the 2001–2002 drought. Communities with unreliable water supply were the most vulnerable to these droughts. This vulnerability resulted in historic adaptations being implemented (e.g., Hanna, Alberta) and re-active adaptations (e.g., Cabri, Saskatchewan). It is important to examine the effectiveness of the current adaptive strategies to cope with more extensive and extended drought situations. First Nation communities, such as the Kainai Blood Indian Reserve, have many social and environmental issues but the impacts from the drought were minor. The Reserve had implemented economic changes in the late 1980s to make it less vulnerable to drought but resulted in negative impacts to the Reserve’s social health. It is imperative to determine how vulnerable First Nation communities are and will to improve future adaptive capacity. This paper provides a snap shot view of how Canadian Prairie Communities have adapted to drought and how vulnerable they are to future drought situations.     

Bamboo in climate change and rural livelihoods

Climate change negotiations, assessments, and greenhouse gas inventory guidelines have all but bypassed bamboo. Disallowing stands of tree-like bamboos as forests disparages their function in the carbon (C) cycle, and disregards pillars of smallholder livelihoods. Exposing bamboo not as a panacea, but as an overlooked option for C conservation, sequestration, and adaptation, we screen details of distribution, morphology, growth, physiology, and impacts for pertinence to climate change. Additional to 40 million hectares of existing bamboo forests, many potential host countries for C projects harbor suitable sites. Definitions, methods and default values, such as the root/shoot- ratio, biomass conversion factors, allometric equations and sampling variables need adjusting. Rapid maturation, persistent rhizomes, a rich palette of species, and wind-firmness may mitigate risk. Bamboos can accommodate agro-and urban forestry, and reign in unsustainable shifting cultivation. Distribution functions of bamboo biomass stocks and growths do not deviate drastically from those of trees. If anything, bamboo stocks are slightly lower, and growths slightly higher, with medians of 87 t*ha⁻¹ and 10.5 t*ha⁻¹*yr⁻¹, respectively. However, bamboo’s outstanding socio-economic effects might well determine its future in mitigation and adaptation. Early, continuous yields, selective harvesting on even small parcels of land, low capital and high labor intensity, virtually 100% conversion efficiency to about 1,500 products, and, typically, 75% of economic returns benefiting rural people are advantageous attributes. Regional studies on suitability, silviculture, yields, economics, risk, and C assessment would strengthen bamboo’s function as ‘the poor man’s timber’ and promote its niche as the smallholder’s C sink.     

Climate change and the growth of the livestock sector in developing countries

Livestock production systems will inevitably be affected as a result of changes in climate and climate variability, with impacts on peoples’ livelihoods. At the same time, livestock food chains are major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture and livestock in particular will need to play a greater role than they have hitherto in reducing emissions in the future. Adaptation and mitigation may require significant changes in production technology and farming systems, which could affect productivity. Given what is currently known about the likely impacts on livestock systems, however, the costs of mitigating and adapting to climate change in the aggregate may not represent an enormous constraint to the growth of the global livestock sector, in its bid to meet increasing demand for livestock products. Different livestock systems have different capacities to adapt or to take on board the policy and regulatory changes that may be required in the future. Vulnerability of households dependent on livestock, particularly in the drier areas of developing countries, is likely to increase substantially, with concomitant impacts on poverty and inequity. The capacity of these systems to adapt and to yield up their carbon sequestration potential deserves considerable further study. Comprehensive frameworks need to be developed to assess impacts and trade-offs, in order to identify and target adaptation and mitigation options that are appropriate for specific contexts, and that can contribute to environmental sustainability as well as to poverty alleviation and economic development.