Environmental Significance of the Diclofop-methyl and Cyclodextrin Inclusion Complexes

Cyclodextrins (CDs) possess a hydrophilic external surface and a hydrophobic cavity. They are thus highly soluble and, in the meantime, effectively form inclusion complexes with hydrophobic organic compounds to enhance their solubilities. In this study, the complexation between modified β-CDs and the herbicide diclofop-methyl (DM), (2-(4-(2,4-dichlorophenoxy)-phenoxy) propionate), was investigated. The complexation was confirmed by the shifts in the wavelengths of maximum ultra violet (UV) absorption and fluorescence excitation/emission. The deuterium isotope effects indicate that in the presence of β-CDs the solubility of DM was lower while that of diclofop was higher in D₂O than in H₂O, suggesting the primary role of hydrophobic interactions in complexation. The solubility of DM was enhanced in the presence of β-CDs, the extent of which depended on the modification of β-CDs. The complexation reduced the hydrolysis of DM and hence increased its stability. The small inconsistency in the power of β-CDs between hydrolysis retardation and solubilization suggests that hydrolysis was affected by the properties of β-CDs and the configuration of DM in the complexes. Use of β-CDs may thus result in the mobilization of soil DM. Properly modified β-CDs may be utilized as formulation additives for improved delivery of DM and for enhanced environmental remediation.     

Solubility of volatile organic compounds in aqueous ammonia solution

The Ostwald solubility coefficient, L of 17 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the gas phase into water and dilute aqueous ammonia solutions was determined by the equilibrium partitioning in closed system-solid phase micro extraction (EPICS-SPME) method at 303 K and at 0-2.5 mol dm(-3) ammonia concentrations. Ammonia increased the solubility of all VOCs nearly linearly, but to a different extent. The difference in the solubility values in aqueous ammonia solutions (Lmix) compared to pure water (L) is explained on the basis of a Linear Solvation Energy Relationship (LSER) equation made applicable for solvent mixtures, logLmix - logL = x((sNH3 - sH2O)pi2H + (aNH3 - aH2O)Sigma2H + (bNH3 - bH2O)Sigmabeta2H + (vNH3 - VH2O)Vx). sNH3 - sH2O, aNH3 - aH2O, bNH3 - bH2O, vNH3 - vH2O are the differences of solvent parameters, x is the mole fraction, pi2H is the solute dipolarity-polarizability, Sigmaalpha2H is the effective hydrogen bond acidity of the solute, Sigmabeta2H is the effective hydrogen bond basicity of the solute and Vx, the McGowan characteristic volume. The most significant term was v, the phase hydrophobicity. The solubility behavior was explained by the change in structure of the aqueous solution: the presence of ammonia reduces the cavity effect. These findings show that the presence of compounds such as ammonia, frequently observed in environmental waters, especially wastewaters, affect the fugacity of VOCs, having consequences for the environmental partitioning of VOCs and having technical consequences towards wastewater treatment technologies.     

Solubilization of PAH mixtures by three different anionic surfactants

Solubilization of naphthalene and phenanthrene into the micelles formed by three different anionic surfactants was investigated for single, binary, and ternary mixtures including pyrene. The three surfactants were sodium dodecylbenzene sulfonate (SDDBS), monoalkylated disulfonated diphenyl oxide (MADS-C12), and dialkylated disulfonated diphenyl oxide (DADS-C12). The order of increasing solubility enhancement of naphthalene and phenanthrene was SDDBS < MADS-C12 < < DADS-C12, which indicates that the hydrophobic chains in micellar core play more important role for the solubilization of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) than the benzene rings in palisade layer of a micelle. The solubility enhancement of naphthalene was slightly changed in PAH mixtures. The solubility of phenanthrene was greatly enhanced in presence of naphthalene but reduced in presence of pyrene. The explanation for these results could be that less hydrophobic compounds can be solubilized at the interfacial region of a hydrophobic core, which reduces the interfacial tension between the core and water, and then the reduced interfacial tension can support a larger core volume for the same interfacial energy.     

Interactions of uranium with polyphosphate

Inorganic polyphosphates (PolyP) are simple linear phosphate (PO(4)(3-)) polymers which are produced by a variety of microorganisms. One of their functions is to complex metals resulting in their precipitation. We investigated the interaction of phosphate and low-molecular-weight PolyP (1400-1900Da) with uranyl ion at various pHs. Potentiometric titration of uranyl ion in the presence of phosphate showed two sharp inflection points at pHs 4 and 8 due to uranium hydrolysis reaction and interaction with phosphate. Titration of uranyl ion and PolyP revealed a broad inflection point starting at pH 4 indicating that complexation of U-PolyP occurs over a wide range of pHs with no uranium hydrolysis. EXAFS analysis of the U-HPO(4) complex revealed that an insoluble uranyl phosphate species was formed below pH 6; at higher pH (> or = 8) uranium formed a precipitate consisting of hydroxophosphato species. In contrast, adding uranyl ion to PolyP resulted in formation of U-PolyP complex over the entire pH range studied. At low pH (< or = 6) an insoluble U-PolyP complex having a monodentate coordination of phosphate with uranium was observed. Above pH 6 however, a soluble bidentate complex with phosphate and uranium was predominant. These results show that the complexation and solubility of uranium with PO(4) and PolyP are dependent upon pH.     

Role of dissolved organic carbon in the cosorption of copper and phthalate esters onto Yellow River sediments

Although the sorption mechanism of hydrophobic organic pollutants on soils or sediments has been widely studied, the effects of coexisting heavy metals are seldom reported, especially the role of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in sorption interactions involving heavy metals. This paper investigates the sorption interactions of phthalate esters (diethyl phthalate, DEP, and di-n-butyl phthalate, DnBP) and copper on Yellow River sediment in the presence of DOC. The results indicate that the sorption hardly varies for DEP but increases up to 20% for DnBP as the copper concentration increases in a water-sediment system with extremely low concentration of DOC. The copper-induced sorption of DnBP could be due to its complexation with copper, as well as its hydrophobicity. In a water-sediment system with the addition of 6.34 mg l(-1) of commercial humic acid (HA), the sorption of DEP is decreased by up to 37%, and that of DnBP is enhanced by up to 41%, as copper is gradually added. This finding is also consistent with the results for a river water-sediment system containing 8.1 mg l(-1) natural DOC. The copper-influenced sorption of DEP and DnBP are found to be due to the binding of copper to DOC that leads to the configuration change of DOC and thus to its enhanced sorption to sediment. By using polarograph and fluorescence spectrograph techniques, the complexation competition among coexisting phthalates, copper and DOC is examined. The resulting data confirm the significant role of DOC in sorption interactions.     

Effect of N-hydroxyethyl-ethylenediamine-triacetic acid (HEDTA) on Cr(VI) reduction by Fe(II)

The complexation of Fe(II) with organic ligand results in the decrease of redox potential, and enhances the reduction ability of Fe(II). An important example is the use of Fe(II)-organic complexes to accelerate Cr(VI) reduction. Dissolved O(2) and light can potentially affect Cr(VI) reduction; however, these two factors have not been adequately evaluated. A batch technique was used to investigate the Cr(VI) reduction as influenced by the light and dissolved O(2) using N-hydroxyethyl-ethylenediamine-triacetic acid (HEDTA) and Fe(II) solutions. The oxidation of Fe(II) by dissolved O(2) was rapid in the presence of HEDTA at low pH; nonetheless, the oxidation proceeded slowly when HEDTA was absent. Although Cr(VI) could be reduced by free Fe(II) at low pH, the reaction was considerably slower than that of systems involving HEDTA. The enhancement of Cr(VI) reduction by Fe(II) in the presence of high concentrations of HEDTA was achieved as a result of two processes. First, HEDTA acted as a ligand for expediting electron transfer between Fe(II) and Cr(VI). Secondly, HEDTA served as a reductant for Cr(VI) under illumination.     

Modeling the competitive effect of phosphate, sulfate, silicate, and tungstate anions on the adsorption of molybdate onto goethite

The mobility of Mo in soils and sediments depends on several factors including soil mineralogy and the presence of other oxyanions that compete with Mo for the adsorbent's retention sites. Batch experiments addressing Mo adsorption onto goethite were conducted with phosphate, sulfate, silicate, and tungstate as competing anions in order to produce competitive two anions adsorption envelopes, as well as competitive two anions adsorption isotherms. Tungstate and phosphate appear to be the strongest competitors of Mo for the adsorption sites of goethite, whereas little competitive effects were observed in the case of silicate and sulfate. Mo adsorption isotherm from a phosphate solution was similar to the one from a tungstate solution. The charge distribution multi-site complexation (CD-MUSIC) model was used to predict competitive adsorption between MoO(4)(2-) and other anions (i.e., phosphate, sulfate, silicate and tungstate) using model parameters obtained from the fitting of single ion adsorption envelopes. CD-MUSIC results strongly agree with the experimental adsorption envelopes of molybdate over the pH range from 3.5 to 10. Furthermore, CD-MUSIC prediction of the molybdate adsorption isotherm show a satisfactory fit of the experimental results. Modeling results suggest that the diprotonated monodentate complexes, FeOW(OH)(5)(-0.5) and FeOMo(OH)(5)(-0.5), were respectively the dominant complexes of adsorbed W and Mo on goethite 110 faces at low pH. The model suggests that Mo and W are retained mainly by the formation of monodentate complexes on the goethite surface. Our results indicate that surface complexation modeling may have applications in predicting competitive adsorption in more complex systems containing multiple competing ions.     

Inclusion complexes of alpha- and gamma-cyclodextrins and the herbicide norflurazon: I. Preparation and characterisation. II. Enhanced solubilisation and removal from soils

The interaction of norflurazon with alpha- and gamma-cyclodextrins (CDs) yielded the formation of inclusion complexes at a 1:1 stoichiometric ratio in solution and in the solid state. Apparent stability constants of 50.7+/-1.6 and 37+/-1.7 M(-1) and an increase in herbicide solubility by up to five and fourfold for alpha- and gamma-CD, respectively, were determined from the phase solubility diagrams at 25 degrees C in water. Three processing methods (kneading, spray-drying and vacuum evaporation) were used to prepare norflurazon-CD solid inclusion complexes, which were characterised by infrared spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry and scanning electron microscopy. A high increase in the norflurazon dissolution rate was obtained with all the solid complexes with gamma-CD, but when alpha-CD was used, only the solid system obtained after the vacuum evaporation process showed a higher dissolution rate. This finding is a first step in the development of new, environmentally sound formulations of norflurazon (NFL), due to the capacity for increasing its dissolution rate and hydrosolubility, and thus diminishing the use of organic solvents. On the other hand, the effect of alpha- and gamma-cyclodextrin on the solubility of norflurazon in solution was also considered as a way of modifying its behaviour in the soil environment. Desorption studies of NFL from soils in the presence of alpha- and gamma-cyclodextrin were carried out using a batch equilibration method. The results obtained showed that alpha- and gamma-cyclodextrin greatly increased the removal of norflurazon previously adsorbed, proving the potential use of these CDs for in situ remediation of pesticide-contaminated soils.     

The influence of cosolvent and heat on the solubility and reactivity of organophosphorous pesticide DNAPL alkaline hydrolysis

The presented research concerned the compatibility of cosolvents with in situ alkaline hydrolysis (ISAH) for treatment of organophosphorous (OPP) pesticide contaminated sites. In addition, the influence of moderate temperature heat increments was studied as a possible enhancement method. A complex dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) of primarily parathion (~50 %) and methyl parathion (~15 %) obtained from the Danish Groyne 42 site was used as a contaminant source, and ethanol and propan-2-ol (0, 25, and 50 v/v%) was used as cosolvents in tap water and 0.34 M NaOH. Both cosolvents showed OPP solubility enhancement at 50 v/v% cosolvent content, with slightly higher OPP concentrations reached with propan-2-ol. Data on hydrolysis products did not show a clear trend with respect to alkaline hydrolysis reactivity in the presence of cosolvents. Results indicated that the hydrolysis rate of methyl-parathion (MP3) decreased with addition of cosolvent, whereas the hydrolysis rate of ethyl-parathion (EP3) remained constant, and overall indications were that the hydrolysis reactions were limited by the rate of hydrolysis rather than NAPL dissolution. In addition to cosolvents, the influence of low-temperature heating on ISAH was studied. Increasing reaction temperature from 10 to 30 °C provided an average rate of hydrolysis enhancement by a factor of 1.4–4.8 dependent on the base of calculation. When combining 50 v/v% cosolvent addition and heating to 30 °C, EP3 solubility was significantly enhanced and results for O,O-diethyl-thiophosphoric acid (EP2 acid) showed a significant enhancement of hydrolysis as well. However, this could not be supported by para-nitrophenol (PNP) data indicating the instability of this product in the presence of cosolvent.

     

Cu(II)-Glyphosate system: A study by anodic stripping voltammetry and the influence on Cu adsorption by montmorillonite

The influence of the pesticide glyphosate (GPS) on the adsorption of Cu (II) on montmorillonite has been examined. The complexation of Cu(II) with GPS was studied using anodic stripping voltammetry in differential pulse mode (DPASV). It has been concluded that the complexes present a labile behaviour and GPS shows a low but noticeable degree of heterogeneity, probably due to complexation of Cu bv more than one GPS species. Cu(II) adsorption on montmorillonite is drastically decreased in the presence of GPS, due to several reasons: decrease in free Cu concentration due to formation of Cu-GPS complexes; surface loading of GPS on montmorillonite, obstructing interlamellar Cu²⁺ adsorption and competitive effect between protons and Cu²⁺ for interlamellar positions.     

Variability of dust iron solubility in atmospheric waters: Investigation of the role of oxalate organic complexation

Atmospheric dust deposition is a major external iron source for remote surface ocean waters. Organic complexation is known to play a role in the dissolution of iron-containing minerals. In this paper, we present our study on the effect of oxalate on dust iron solubility in simulated rainwater. Our results reveal that the solubility of iron carried by analogs of different African dusts varies with the dust source. Our experiments indicate a positive linear correlation between iron solubility and oxalate concentration. Soluble iron (SFe) increases from 0.0025(±0.0005)% to 0.26(±0.01)% of total iron, considering all dust sources and with oxalate concentrations ranging from 0 to 8 μM. These results show that the observed variability of iron solubility in aerosols collected over the Atlantic Ocean is, at least partly, due to an increase in dust iron solubility, with the presence of oxalate complexation, rather than to the presence of more soluble anthropogenic iron. Considering the mineralogical composition of those particles, experiments with pure minerals (hematite, goethite and illite) were performed to study the dissolution process. We found that oxalate promotes the solubility of iron contained in clay and hence confirmed that more than 95% of SFe from soil dust is provided by clay (illite). This experimental work enables us to establish a parameterization of iron solubility in dust as a function of oxalate concentration and based on the individual iron solubility of pure iron-bearing minerals usually present in dust particles. Finally, our results emphasize that oxalate contributes to iron solubility on the same order of magnitude as the acid processes. Organic complexation appears to be a process that increases iron solubility and likely enhances the bioavailability of iron from dust.     

Rhizosphere characteristics of indigenously growing nickel hyperaccumulator and excluder plants on serpentine soil

The role of rhizosphere processes in metal hyperaccumulation is largely unexplored and a matter of debate, related field data are virtually not available. We conducted a field survey of rhizosphere characteristics beneath the Ni hyperaccumulator Thlaspi goesingense Hálácsy and the metal-excluder species Silene vulgaris L. and Rumex acetosella L. growing natively on the same serpentine site. Relative to bulk soil and to the rhizosphere of the excluder species, we found significantly increased DOC and Ni concentrations in water extracts of T. goesingense rhizosphere, whereas exchangeable Ni was depleted due to excessive uptake of Ni. Chemical speciation analysis using the MINTEQA2 software package revealed that enhanced Ni solubility in Thlaspi rhizosphere is driven by the formation of Ni-organic complexes. Moreover, ligand-induced dissolution of Ni-bearing minerals is likely to contribute to enhanced Ni solubility. Increased Mg and Ca concentrations and pH in Thlaspi rhizosphere are consistent with ligand-induced dissolution of orthosilicates such as forsterite (Mg(2)SiO(4). Our field data reinforce the hypothesis that exudation of organic ligands may contribute to enhanced solubility and replenishment of metals in the rhizosphere of hyperaccumulating species.     

Catalytic properties of cyclodextrins on the hydrolysis of parathion and paraoxon in aquatic medium containing humic acids

The inclusion catalysis effects of -,β- and γ-cyclodextrins(CyDs) on the hydrolysis rate of parathion, methyl parathion and paraoxon were investigated at 25°C in alkaline buffer solution(pH=8.5) containing humic acids. The hydrolysis rate of these pesticides was increased by the presence of humic acids. The inclusion catalysis of β-CyD inhibited parathion hydrolysis but promoted paraoxon hydrolysis. The CyD inclusion catalysis showed characteristic correlation with relative magnitudes of the inclusion-depth parameters of the pesticides which could be determined by the rotational-strength analysis of the induced circular dichroism. The essential properties of the CyD inclusion catalysis were explained in terms of the geometries of the CyD-pesticide inclusion complexes which determine degree of the proximity between the pesticide reaction site and the CyD catalytic site.     

NaCl在Zn(Ⅱ)-NaOH-H_2O体系中溶解度的测定及去除

等温溶解平衡法测定了283.2～323.2 K温度范围内NaCl在Zn(Ⅱ)-NaOH-H2O体系(cZn(Ⅱ)=0.6 mol/L、cNaOH=5.00mol/L)及NaOH-H2O体系(cNaOH=5.00 mol/L)中的溶解度。与NaOH-H2O、纯水体系相比,相同温度下NaCl在Zn(Ⅱ)-NaOH-H2O体系中溶解度最小。运用正交实验法对Zn(Ⅱ)-NaOH-H2O体系中NaCl的溶解度进行因素分析。结果表明,较高的cNaOH和cZn(Ⅱ)是造成NaCl溶解度急剧降低的主要原因,提高温度虽然对NaCl的溶解有促进作用但影响较小。最后,通过加热浓缩方式提高溶液NaOH和Zn的浓度,促使NaCl因溶解度骤降而结晶析出,首次实现了碱锌溶液中高浓度Cl-的大量去除。实验结果具有重要的工程应用价值。     

Effects of deltamethrin on hepatic microsomal cytochrome p450‐dependent monooxygenases in carp

Abstract The in vivo effects of sublethal concentrations of deltamethrin (DM), a pyrethroid insecticide, on the hepatic microsomal cytochrome P450 (Cyt P450) content and the Cyt P450‐dependent monooxygenase activities (para‐nitrophenetole‐O‐deethylase, pNPOD; aminopyrene‐N‐demethylase, APND; ethylmorphine‐N‐demethylase, EMND; 7‐ethoxycoumarin‐O‐deethylase, ECOD; and ethoxyresorufin‐O‐deethylase, EROD) were examined in adult carp (Cyprinus carpió L.).

0.2 μg/1 DM treatment resulted in significant increases in APND, EMND and ECOD activities, whereas 2 μg/1 DM resulted in significant inhibitions of all studied isoenzyme activities with the exceptions of pNPOD and APND after 72 h. EROD was the only enzyme for which a slight increase in activity was observed. On repeated treatment, Cyt P450 could not be detected after 48 h, but the Cyt P420 level increased. All tested isoenzyme activities were inhibited, with the exception ofthat of EROD, which was enhanced.

All these changes in enzyme activities and Cyt P450 content demonstrate the effects of DM on fish. DM treatment at low concentration is presumed to cause induction of the Cyt P450‐dependent monooxygenases which may lead to faster metabolization of the insecticide. In contrast, DM at higher concentration strongly inhibited the activities of the studied enzymes. This finding may be due to the damaging effect of DM on the xenobiotic metabolizing enzyme systems offish.     

Effect of various cyclodextrins on photodegradation of a hydrophobic herbicide in aqueous suspensions of different soil colloidal components

This paper investigated the photochemical behaviour of the herbicide norflurazon (NFL) in the presence of different soil colloidal components and several cyclodextrins (CDs). The interaction of NFL with CDs yielded the formation of inclusion complexes at 1:1 stoichiometric ratio in solution, with an increase of the herbicide solubility. The irradiation of NFL aqueous solutions in the presence of CDs showed that the higher the formation constant of NFL-CD complexes (Kc) and their solubility, the higher their photocatalytic effects, following the CDs in the order: RAMEB>HPBCD>beta-CD>alpha-CD>gamma-CD. The presence of the different soil colloidal components in aqueous suspension provoked the reduction of the NFL photodegradation rate, due to a screening effect, especially when goethite and humic acids were present. No disappearance of NFL was detected in parallel studies carried out in the dark, except in the case of humic acids, where a 5% adsorption of the initial amount of NFL was adsorbed in the dark control. The presence of the different CDs in such systems showed an inductive photodegradation effect on the herbicide. This could be largely explained by the inclusion effects of CDs in catalyzing interactions between NFL and certain reactive radicals generated by the different colloidal components. Although this work was carried out at laboratory scale and therefore, has limited applications, it reveals that cyclodextrins increase solubilization of hydrophobic herbicides and could lead to their increased photodegradation. This could be a promising method for pesticide-contaminated water remediation. However, it is important to consider the effect of the soil colloidal components in the different aquatic systems and their concentrations, since they can alter the photodegradative effects of the cyclodextrins.     

Chemically catalyzed uptake of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene by Vetiveria zizanioides

The efficiency of vetiver grass (Vetiveria zizanioides) in removing 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) from aqueous media was explored in the presence of a common agrochemical, urea, used as a chaotropic agent. Chaotropic agents disrupt water structure, increasing solubilization of hydrophobic compounds (TNT), thus, enhancing plant TNT uptake. The primary objectives of this study were to: (i) characterize TNT absorption by vetiver in hydroponic media, and (ii) determine the effect of urea on chemically catalyzing TNT uptake by vetiver grass in hydroponic media. Results showed that vetiver exhibited a high TNT uptake capacity (1.026 mgg(-1)), but kinetics were slow. Uptake was considerably enhanced in the presence of urea, which significantly (p<0.001) increased the 2nd-order reaction rate constant over that of the untreated (no urea) control. Three major TNT metabolites were detected in the roots, but not in the shoot, namely 1,3,5-trinitrobenzene, 4-amino 2,6-dinitrotoluene, and 2-amino 4,6-dinitrotoluene, indicating TNT degradation by vetiver grass.     

Cyclodextrin-enabled green environmental biotechnologies

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Most of the organic compounds contaminating the environment can form inclusion complexes with cyclodextrins resulting in enhanced solubility (a...     

Suppression of estrogenic activity of 17-beta-estradiol by beta-cyclodextrin

The suppressive effects of cyclodextrins (CDs) on the strong estrogenic activity of 17β-estradiol (E2) in water environments were investigated in this study. Cyclodextrins are doughnut-shaped molecules that possess a hydrophobic cavity and a hydrophilic exterior. The cavity can incorporate nonpolar molecules as guests to form inclusion complexes. β-CD and 2-hydroxypropyl-β-CD (HP-β-CD) were the most successful in forming a complex with E2 and improving its low aqueous solubility. The E2/CDs complexes bound to the estrogen receptor in a cell-free system as determined by ELISA and suppressed the hormone activities as measured by a yeast two-hybrid assay. These results indicate that hydrophobic E2 is easily transported through the lipid zone of the plasma membrane into the target cell and can bind to the nuclear receptor. However, the hydrophilic E2/β-CD and E2/HP-β-CD complexes do not penetrate the membrane. Therefore, these CDs are able to suppress the hormone activity of E2 through complex formation.     

Investigating the affinities and persistence of VX nerve agent in environmental matrices

Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine environmental variables that affect the affinities and persistence of the nerve agent O-ethyl S-(2-diisopropylaminoethyl) methylphosphonothiolate (VX) at dilute concentrations in environmental matrices. Quantitative analyses of VX and its degradation products were performed using LC-MS. Batch hydrolysis experiments demonstrated an increasing hydrolysis rate as pH increased, as shown in previous studies, but also indicated that dissolved aqueous constituents can cause significant differences in the absolute hydrolysis rate. Adsorption isotherms from batch aqueous experiments revealed that VX has a high affinity for hydrophobic organics, a moderate affinity for montmorillonite clay, and a very low affinity for an iron-oxyhydroxide soil mineral, goethite. The adsorption on goethite was increased with the presence of dissolved organic matter in solution. VX degraded rapidly when dried onto goethite, when specific adsorption was forced. No enhanced degradation occurred with goethite in small amounts of water. These results suggest that aqueous conditions have important controls on VX adsorption and degradation in the environment and a more mechanistic understanding of these controls is needed in order to enable accurate predictions of its long-term fate and persistence.