Water safety plans as a tool for drinking water regulatory frameworks in Arctic communities

Arctic communities often face drinking water supply challenges that are unique to their location. Consequently, conventional drinking water regulatory strategies often do not meet the needs of these communities. A literature review of Arctic jurisdictions was conducted to evaluate the current water management approaches and how these techniques could be applied to the territory of Nunavut in Canada. The countries included are all members of the Arctic Council and other Canadian jurisdictions considered important to the understanding of water management for Northern Canadian communities. The communities in Nunavut face many challenges in delivering safe water to customers due to remoteness, small community size and therefore staffing constraints, lack of guidelines and monitoring procedures specific to Nunavut, and water treatment and distribution systems that are vastly different than those used in southern communities. Water safety plans were explored as an alternative to water quality regulations as recent case studies have demonstrated the utility of this risk management tool, especially in the context of small communities. Iceland and Alberta both currently have regulated water safety plans (WSPs) and were examined to understand shortcomings and benefits if WSPs were to be applied as a possible strategy in Nunavut. Finally, this study discusses specific considerations that are necessary should a WSP approach be applied in Nunavut.     

Disinfection and removal of human pathogenic bacteria in arctic waste stabilization ponds

Wastewater stabilization ponds (WSPs) are commonly used to treat municipal wastewater in Arctic Canada. The biological treatment in the WSPs is strongly influenced by climatic conditions. Currently, there is limited information about the removal of fecal and pathogenic bacteria during the short cool summer treatment season. With relevance to public health, the objectives of this paper were to determine if treatment in arctic WSPs resulted in the disinfection (i.e., removal of fecal indicator bacteria, Escherichia coli) and removal of selected human bacterial pathogens from the treated effluent. The treatment performance, with focus on microbial removal, was assessed for the one-cell WSP in Pond Inlet (Nunavut [NU]) and two-cell WSP in Clyde River (NU) over three consecutive (2012–2014) summer treatment seasons (late June-early September). The WSPs provided a primary disinfection treatment of the wastewater with a 2–3 Log removal of generic indicator E. coli. The bacterial pathogens Salmonella spp., pathogenic E. coli, and Listeria monocytogenes, but not Campylobacter spp. and Helicobacter pylori, were detected in the untreated and treated wastewater, indicating that human pathogens were not reliably removed. Seasonal and annual variations in temperature significantly (p < 0.05) affected the disinfection efficiency. Improved disinfection and pathogen removal was observed for the two-cell system in Clyde River as compared to the one-cell system in Pond Inlet. A quantitative microbial risk assessment should be performed to determine if the release of low levels of human pathogens into the arctic environment poses a human health risk.     

Assessment of the probability of extreme weather events and their potential effects in large conurbations

The likelihood of occurrence of extreme high-temperature run events is estimated for different values of the event intensity and persistence from very long synthetic time series of daily maximum temperatures generated by Monte Carlo simulations using a first-order autoregressive or Markov model. A theoretical analysis reveals a higher relative sensitivity of the simulated extreme event probabilities to changes in the variability of climate than to changes in its mean state. Moreover, this sensitivity relatively increases at a nonlinear rate the more extreme the event. The developed probabilistic model is applied in order to derive local scenarios of extreme high-temperature run events for a large conurbation like the city of Berlin assuming both arbitrary hypothetical and physically based new climate states described by changes in the model parameters (e.g. the mean, the standard deviation and the first-order autocorrelation of the daily maximum temperature time series). As a consequence of a 1.7°C increase in the mean as well as a 19% increase in the temperature variability in July as predicted by the climate model ECHAM_1/LSG assuming an unrestricted future increase in the global atmospheric concentration of climate relevant greenhouse gases according to the IPCC Scenario A (“Business as usual”) the intensity as well as the persistence of extreme high-temperature run events will rise considerably up to the end of the next century. In particular, intense hot spells characterized by at least five consecutive daily maximum temperatures equaling or exceeding 33°C are expected to occur every eight years under the new climate conditions compared to a current repetition time of about 47 years. The potential environmental effects might be a significant increase in the heat-stress-related morbidity and mortality rate, an aggravation of the summer smog situation and a destabilization of the urban ecosystems.     

Evaluation of a photochemical grid model using estimates of concentration probability density functions

A method for evaluating photochemical grid models based on the estimation of the probability density function (PDF) of the variations in ozone concentrations is described and demonstrated. It is assumed that the ozone concentration PDF is determined from 100 Monte Carlo uncertainty runs based on uncertainties in photochemical grid model input variables. The exercise involves the Urban Airshed Model with Variable grid (UAM-V) as applied to the July 1995 Ozone Transport Assessment Group episode in the eastern US. The focus is on the distribution of model residuals (observed concentration minus model-predicted ensemble mean concentration) for 66 ozone monitors on the OTAG domain. It is concluded that the distribution of observed model residuals is within the 95% range of expected uncertainty, suggesting that the model is performing adequately.     

Chemical and microbial characteristics of municipal drinking water supply systems in the Canadian Arctic

Drinking water in the vast Arctic Canadian territory of Nunavut is sourced from surface water lakes or rivers and transferred to man-made or natural reservoirs. The raw water is at a minimum treated by chlorination and distributed to customers either by trucks delivering to a water storage tank inside buildings or through a piped distribution system. The objective of this study was to characterize the chemical and microbial drinking water quality from source to tap in three hamlets (Coral Harbour, Pond Inlet and Pangnirtung—each has a population of <2000) on trucked service, and in Iqaluit (population ~6700), which uses a combination of trucked and piped water conveyance. Generally, the source and drinking water was of satisfactory microbial quality, containing Escherichia coli levels of <1 MPN/100 mL with a few exceptions, and selected pathogenic bacteria and parasites were below detection limits using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) methods. Tap water in households receiving trucked water contained less than the recommended 0.2 mg/L of free chlorine, while piped drinking water in Iqaluit complied with Health Canada guidelines for residual chlorine (i.e. >0.2 mg/L free chlorine). Some buildings in the four communities contained manganese (Mn), copper (Cu), iron (Fe) and/or lead (Pb) concentrations above Health Canada guideline values for the aesthetic (Mn, Cu and Fe) and health (Pb) objectives. Corrosion of components of the drinking water distribution system (household storage tanks, premise plumbing) could be contributing to Pb, Cu and Fe levels, as the source water in three of the four communities had low alkalinity. The results point to the need for robust disinfection, which may include secondary disinfection or point-of-use disinfection, to prevent microbial risks in drinking water tanks in buildings and ultimately at the tap.     

Growth responses of Scots pine to climatic factors on reclaimed oil shale mined land

Afforestation on reclaimed mining areas has high ecological and economic importance. However, ecosystems established on post-mining substrate can become vulnerable due to climate variability. We used tree-ring data and dendrochronological techniques to study the relationship between climate variables and annual growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing on reclaimed open cast oil shale mining areas in Northeast Estonia. Chronologies for trees of different age classes (50, 40, 30) were developed. Pearson’s correlation analysis between radial growth indices and monthly climate variables revealed that precipitation in June–July and higher mean temperatures in spring season enhanced radial growth of pine plantations, while higher than average temperatures in summer months inhibited wood production. Sensitivity of radial increment to climatic factors on post-mining soils was not homogenous among the studied populations. Older trees growing on more developed soils were more sensitive to precipitation deficit in summer, while growth indices of two other stand groups (young and middle-aged) were highly correlated to temperature. High mean temperatures in August were negatively related to annual wood production in all trees, while trees in the youngest stands benefited from warmer temperatures in January. As a response to thinning, mean annual basal area increment increased up to 50 %. By managing tree competition in the closed-canopy stands, through the thinning activities, tree sensitivity and response to climate could be manipulated.     

Exposure to Fine Particle Acidity and Sulfate in 24 North American Communities: The Relationship Between Single Year Observations and Long-Term Exposures

Abstract

Twenty-four communities in North America were monitored over one year for a variety of air pollutants as part of a crosssectional epidemiological study on the respiratory health effects of exposure to fine particle acidity. The relationships between these single-year observations and the long-term community levels of ambient sulfate and acidity were examined. In the health study it was assumed that the singleyear measurements were indicative of the lifetime or long-term exposures of the participants (eight?, nine?, and ten-year-olds). Therefore, a strong relationship between the long-term and single-year (24-community) particle acidity and sulfate concentrations was important.

Ambient sulfate data from a variety of alternate sources were obtained from monitoring sites close to 20 of the 24 communities. Long-term averages, which were determined for the warm season (May to September), were derived from a minimum of four complete years of monitoring data at each site. Long-term acidity concentrations were derived from these sulfate data because multi-year measurements of acidity were not available. These concentrations were calculated by multiplying the sulfate concentrations by the mean warm season acid-to-sulfate ratios observed during the 24-community study. For each community, 25 random estimates (determined by allowing the observed mean ratio to vary randomly by ±0.2) of the mean warm season acidity were used to determine the community-to-community differences in the long-term acid concentrations.

Overall, the long-term and 24-community warm season sulfate concentrations were correlated with an R2, determined from linear regression, of 0.92 (slope = 0.90±0.13). With only two exceptions, regardless of which of these exposure estimates were used, the communities that were determined to experience high (>8 μg m^?3), moderate (4-8 μg m^?3) and low (<4 μg m^?3) sulfate exposures did not change. Similarly, few communities crossed exposure classes when the long-term and short-term acid concentrations were compared. However, due to the increased uncertainty arising from the lack of information on the long-term acid-to-sulfate ratio, the average correlation (R²) between the long-term and 24-community exposure estimates (the mean of the 25 separate random estimates for each community) was 0.85 (slope = 0.94).     

Pharmacokinetic model of dioxin and furan levels in adipose tissue from Sawmill work involving chlorophenate fungicides

Sawmill workers in British Columbia (B.C.), Canada, have been exposed to chlorophenate fungicides which are known to be contaminated with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs). Due to concern about the potential of these workers to have significant body burdens of PCDD/Fs, and the absence of measurements in these worker, a single-compartment pharmacokinetic model was developed to estimate the concentration of PCDD/Fs in the fat tissue of the sawmill workers. Data from a large cohort of B.C. sawmill workers and literature-based data on chlorophenate exposures and PCDD/F concentrations in chlorophenates were used in Monte Carlo simulations to predict a PCDD/F body burden distribution. The median concentrations of HxCDF and HpCDF predicted using the model for the B.C. sawmill worker population exceeded the range measured in unexposed populations. PeCDF and OCDF concentrations exceeded the range measured in unexposed populations at the 70th percentile of the model-predicted distribution, and PeCDD at the 90th percentile. The primary limitation of the model was the scarcity of input data about actual dermal and inhalation exposures to chlorophenates.     

Four Decades of Plant Community Change in the Alpine Tundra of Southwest Yukon,Canada

Repeat measurements from long-term plots provide precise data for studying plant community change. In 2010, we visited a remote location in Yukon, Canada, where a detailed survey of alpine tundra communities was conducted in 1968. Plant community composition was resurveyed on the same four slopes using the same methods as the original study. Species richness and diversity increased significantly over the 42 years and non-metric multidimensional scaling indicated that community composition had also changed significantly. However, the direction and magnitude of change varied with aspect. Dominant species were not replaced or eliminated but, instead, declined in relative importance. Fine-scale changes in vegetation were evident from repeat photography and dendro-ecological analysis of erect shrubs, supporting the community-level analysis. The period of study corresponds to a mean annual temperature increase of 2°C, suggesting that climate warming has influenced these changes.     

Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrologic and Water Quality Predictions for a Small Watershed Using SWAT2000

Hydrologic and water quality (H/WQ) models are being used with increasing frequency to devise alternative pollution control strategies. It has been recognized that such models may have a large degree of uncertainty associated with their predictions, and that this uncertainty can significantly impact the utility of the model. In this study, ARRAMIS (Advanced Risk & Reliability Assessment Model) software package was used to analyze the uncertainty of the SWAT2000 (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) outputs concerning nutrients and sediment losses from agricultural lands. ARRAMIS applies Monte Carlo simulation technique connected with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) scheme. This technique is applied to the Warner Creek watershed located in the Piedmont physiographic region of Maryland, and it provides an interval estimate of a range of values with an associated probability instead of a point estimate of a particular pollutant constituent. Uncertainty of model outputs was investigated using LHS scheme with restricted pairing for the model input sampling. Probability distribution functions (pdfs) for each of the 50 model simulations were constructed from these results. Model output distributions of interest in this analysis were stream flow, sediment, organic nitrogen (organic-N), organic phosphorus (organic-P), nitrate, ammonium, and mineral phosphorus (mineral-P) transported with water. Developed probability distribution functions for the model provided information with desirable probability. Results indicate that consideration of input parameter uncertainty produces 64% less mean stream flow along with approximately 8.2% larger sediment loading than obtained using mean input parameters. On the contrary, mean of outputs regarding nutrients such as nitrate, ammonia, organic-N, and organic-P (but not mineral-P) were almost the same as the one using mean input parameters. The uncertainty in predicted stream flow and sediment loading is large, but that for nutrient loadings is the same as that of the corresponding input parameters. This study concluded that using a best possible distribution for the input parameters to reflect the impact of soils and land use diversity in a small watershed on SWAT2000 model outputs may be more accurate than using average values for each input parameter.     

Elevated water temperature reduces the acute toxicity of the widely used herbicide diuron to a green alga, Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata

In the actual environment, temperatures fluctuate drastically through season or global warming and are thought to affects risk of pollutants for aquatic biota; however, there is no report about the effect of water temperature on toxicity of widely used herbicide diuron to fresh water microalgae. The present research investigated inhibitory effect of diuron on growth and photosynthetic activity of a green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata at five different temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 °C) for 144 h of exposure. As a result, effective diuron concentrations at which a 50 % decrease in algal growth occurred was increased with increasing water temperature ranging from 9.2 to 20.1 μg L^–1 for 72 h and 9.4–28.5 μg L^–1 for 144 h. The photochemical efficiency of photosystem II (F _v/F _m ratio) was significantly reduced at all temperatures by diuron exposure at 32 μg L^–1 after 72 h. Inhibition rates was significantly increased with decreased water temperature (P?<?0.01). Intracellular H₂O₂ levels as an indicator of oxidative stress were also decreased with increasing temperature in both control and diuron treatment groups and were about 2.5 times higher in diuron treatment groups than that of controls (P?<?0.01). Our results suggest water temperatures may affect the toxicokinetics of diuron in freshwater and should therefore be considered in environmental risk assessment.     

The effects of drop size and formulation upon the spread of pesticide droplets impacting on water‐sensitive papers

Abstract

The effects of drop size and formulation upon the spread of pesticide droplets impacting on water‐sensitive papers (WSPs) was investigated. Droplets of diameter 70–350 μm, of four permethrin formulations, were produced using a monosize droplet generator. The droplets were collected on WSPs and in Dow Corning fluid and their diameters measured using a binocular microscope. Spread factors, upon the WSPs, for each dropsize/formulation combination were then calculated. Spread factors varied with both formulation and droplet size and for droplets of 200 and 300 μm diameter spread was significantly correlated with the dynamic surface tension of the formulation. The results suggest that proper calibration of WSPs is necessary for effective droplet sizing.     

An ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric data assimilation: Application to wind tunnel data

In the previous work (Zheng et al., 2007, Zheng et al., 2009), a data assimilation method, based on ensemble Kalman filter, has been applied to a Monte Carlo Dispersion Model (MCDM). The results were encouraging when the method was tested by the twin experiment and a short-range field experiment. In this technical note, the measured data collected in a wind tunnel experiment have been assimilated into the Monte Carlo dispersion model. The uncertain parameters in the dispersion model, including source term, release height, turbulence intensity and wind direction have been considered. The 3D parameters, i.e. the turbulence intensity and wind direction, have been perturbed by 3D random fields. In order to find the factors which may influence the assimilation results, eight tests with different specifications were carried out. Two strategies of constructing the 3D perturbation field of wind direction were proposed, and the result shows that the two level strategy performs better than the one level strategy. It is also found that proper standard deviation and the correlation radius of the perturbation field play an important role for the data assimilation results.     

A real-time,dynamic early-warning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents

A real-time, dynamic, early-warning model (EP-risk model) is proposed to cope with sudden water quality pollution accidents affecting downstream areas with raw-water intakes (denoted as EPs). The EP-risk model outputs the risk level of water pollution at the EP by calculating the likelihood of pollution and evaluating the impact of pollution. A generalized form of the EP-risk model for river pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the risk matrix method is proposed. The likelihood of water pollution at the EP is calculated by the Monte Carlo method, which is used for uncertainty analysis of pollutants’ transport in rivers. The impact of water pollution at the EP is evaluated by expert knowledge and the results of Monte Carlo simulation based on the analytic hierarchy process. The final risk level of water pollution at the EP is determined by the risk matrix method. A case study of the proposed method is illustrated with a phenol spill accident in China.     

Health risk assessment of exposure to organic matter from the use of reclaimed water in toilets

To estimate the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of six volatile organic compounds (VOCs) found in reclaimed water used for flushing toilets, a probabilistic health risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulations was used. Before Monte Carlo simulations, the contaminant volatilization model was applied to estimate the concentration of the pollutants in air. Moreover, a questionnaire was used to acquire daily exposure time and the Batch Fit tool of Crystal Ball software was applied to find the best-fitting distribution of a part of the input parameters. The risk analysis indicated that the health risks from six VOCs were lower than the negligible risk level (1?×?10^?8) in all cases, and the health risk for females was slightly higher than that for males. Overall, exposure to organic pollutants in reclaimed water during toilet flushing does not currently pose a significant carcinogenic risk to humans. In this study, we want to provide some information on the health risk from reclaimed water used for toilet flushing in China and hope that it will be useful to promote the application of reclaimed water in water-deficient areas.     

Comparison of the effects of variable site temperatures and constant incubation temperatures on the biodegradation of petroleum hydrocarbons in pilot-scale experiments with field-aged contaminated soils from a cold regions site

Temporal atmospheric temperature changes during summers at sub-Arctic sites often cause periodic fluctuations in shallow landfarm and surface soil temperatures. However, little information is available on the effect of site-relevant variations on biodegradation performance in cold climates. This study compares the rate and extents of biodegradation of petroleum hydrocarbons at variable site temperatures (1-10 °C) representative of summers at a sub-Arctic site reported previously with those obtained under a constant average temperature of 6 °C. The biodegradation was evaluated in pilot-scale landfarming experiments with field-aged petroleum-contaminated soils shipped from Resolution Island (61°30′N, 65°00′W), Nunavut, Canada. Under the variable site temperature conditions biodegradation rate constants of semi- (F2) and non-volatile (F3) hydrocarbon fractions were enhanced by over a factor of two during the 60-d experiment, compared to the constant temperature mode. The decrease in total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) under the variable site temperature mode was 55% compared to only 19% under the constant average temperature mode. The enhanced biodegradation is attributable to the non-linear acceleration of microbial activity between 4.7 and 10 °C and faster growth of indigenous hydrocarbon-degrading microbial populations. The first-order biodegradation rate constants of 0.018, 0.024 and 0.016 d⁻¹ for TPH, F2 and F3 fractions at the variable site temperature were in agreement with those determined by an on-site experiment at the same site.     

Temporal variations of benthic diatom community and its main influencing factors in a subtropical river, China

Benthic diatoms are the main component in many aquatic ecosystems such as streams, creeks and rivers, and they function as important primary producers and chemical modulators for other organisms in the ecosystems. In this study, the composition of benthic diatoms was investigated and further explored the primary physicals and chemicals affecting their temporal variations in the upper Han River, China. There were seasonal variations in physical and chemical variables in waters over the sampling period of 2007–2010. Water temperature (t), chemical oxygen demand, total nitrogen, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), silica and fluoride were much higher in the high flow season (i.e., July or August) than these in the base flow season. Three species Achnanthidium minutissimum (composed of 10.7 % of the total diatom abundance), Achnanthidium pyrenaicum (11.9 %), and Achnanthidium subatomus (12.7 %) accounting for more than 5 % of the total diatom abundance were persistently dominant in all seasons, while the other two prostrate and motile species including Eolimna minima and Nitzschia dissipata also dominant in the base flow season. The species richness always peaked in autumn with significant difference with summer (p?<?0.01), and density of benthic diatom varied and peaked in April. Analyses indicated that the temporal variation in benthic diatom communities was strongly related to t, nitrogen, organic pollutants (indicated by COD and DOC), and hydrological regime. The research will expand the understanding of water chemistry monitoring, and improve watershed- scale management and conservation efforts in the upper Han River, China.     

Database uncertainty as a limiting factor in reactive transport prognosis

The effect of uncertainties in thermodynamic databases on prediction performances of reactive transport modeling of uranium (VI) is investigated with a Monte Carlo approach using the transport code TReaC. TReaC couples the transport model to the speciation code PHREEQC by a particle tracking method. A speciation example is given to illustrate the effect of uncertainty in thermodynamic data on the predicted solution composition. The transport calculations consequently show the prediction uncertainty resulting from uncertainty in thermodynamic data. A conceptually simple scenario of elution of uranium from a sand column is used as an illustrating example. Two different cases are investigated: a carbonate-enriched drinking water and an acid mine water associated with uranium mine remediation problems. Due to the uncertainty in the relative amount of positively charged and neutral solution species, the uncertainty in the thermodynamic data also infers uncertainty in the retardation behavior. The carbonated water system shows the largest uncertainties in speciation calculation. Therefore, the model predictions of total uranium solubility have a broad range. The effect of data uncertainty in transport prediction is further illustrated by a prediction of the time when eluted uranium from the column exceeds a threshold value. All of these Monte Carlo transport calculations consume large amounts of computing time.     

Assessment of ozone effects on nitrate export from Hubbard Brook Watershed 6

The impact of the air pollution ozone on soil N dynamics and temporal and spatial patterns of streamflow nitrate flux at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest Watershed 6 during the 1964-1994 period was assessed using aggregated (one-cell) and spatially explicit (208-cell) versions of the SImple NItrogen Cycle (SINIC) model. Simulated ozone effects included reductions in stomatal conductance and plant N demand. Model uncertainty was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations. Ambient ozone was estimated to cause an additional 0.042 gN/m2 per year of nitrate export, 12% of the mean annual streamflow nitrate flux. The 95% credible interval of this estimate was 0.002-0.083 gN/m2 per year, or 0.72-27.3% of the annual flux. The large uncertainty in this estimate suggests that it may be difficult to identify ozone effects on nitrate export utilizing long term data from a single site.     

Uncertainties in predicted ozone concentrations due to input uncertainties for the UAM-V photochemical grid model applied to the July 1995 OTAG domain

The photochemical grid model, UAM-V, has been used by regulatory agencies to make decisions concerning emissions controls, based on studies of the July 1995 ozone episode in the eastern US. The current research concerns the effect of the uncertainties in UAM-V input variables (emissions, initial and boundary conditions, meteorological variables, and chemical reactions) on the uncertainties in UAM-V ozone predictions. Uncertainties of 128 input variables have been estimated and most range from about 20% to a factor of two. 100 Monte Carlo runs, each with new resampled values of each of the 128 input variables, have been made for given sets of median emissions assumptions. Emphasis is on the maximum hourly-averaged ozone concentration during the 12–14 July 1995 period. The distribution function of the 100 Monte Carlo predicted domain-wide maximum ozone concentrations is consistently close to log-normal with a 95% uncertainty range extending over plus and minus a factor of about 1.6 from the median. Uncertainties in ozone predictions are found to be most strongly correlated with uncertainties in the NO₂ photolysis rate. Also important are wind speed and direction, relative humidity, cloud cover, and biogenic VOC emissions. Differences in median predicted maximum ozone concentrations for three alternate emissions control assumptions were investigated, with the result that (1) the suggested year-2007 emissions changes would likely be effective in reducing concentrations from those for the year-1995 actual emissions, that (2) an additional 50% NO_x emissions reductions would likely be effective in further reducing concentrations, and that (3) an additional 50% VOC emission reductions may not be effective in further reducing concentrations.