Sustainable development of food production: a case study on scenarios for pig production

To study future, sustainable production systems, a step-wise method was used to create three future scenarios for pig production based on different sustainability goals. The first scenario focused on animal welfare and the natural behavior of the animals. The second targeted low impacts on the environment and the efficient use of natural resources. The third scenario aimed at product quality and safety. Each scenario fulfilled different aspects of sustainability, but there were goal conflicts because no scenario fulfilled all sustainability goals. The scenarios were then parameterized. The environmental impact was calculated using the life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, and the economic cost was calculated from the same data set. The cost per kilo of pork was highest for the animal welfare scenario and similar for the other two scenarios. The environmental scenario had the lowest environmental impact, and the product-quality scenario the highest. The results are discussed based on different future priorities.     

Renewable energies in electricity generation for reduction of greenhouse gases in Mexico 2025

This study presents 4 scenarios relating to the environmental futures of electricity generation in Mexico up to the year 2025. The first scenario emphasizes the use of oil products, particularly fuel oil, and represents the historic path of Mexico's energy policy. The second scenario prioritizes the use of natural gas, reflecting the energy consumption pattern that arose in the mid-1990s as a result of reforms in the energy sector. In the third scenario, the high participation of renewable sources of energy is considered feasible from a technical and economic point of view. The fourth scenario takes into account the present- and medium-term use of natural-gas technologies that the energy reform has produced, but after 2007 a high and feasible participation of renewable sources of energy is considered. The 4 scenarios are evaluated up to the year 2025 in terms of greenhouse gases (GHG) and acid rain precursor gases (ARPG).     

Environmental assessment of plant protection strategies using scenarios for pig feed production

Two scenarios for future pig meat production were constructed. The first was a "business as usual" scenario, where the pig feed was based on domestic grain and imported soy-meal, and no efforts were made to reduce pesticide use. The second scenario had a strong environmental focus, and both peas and rapeseed were grown at pig-farm level to produce grain and protein feed. Preventive measures, such as a more diverse crop rotation and mechanical weed control, were combined to reduce pesticide use. The two scenarios were environmentally assessed by Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and a pesticide risk indicator model (PRI-Farm). The results showed environmentally sound possibilities to reduce pesticide dependency and risks by using altered plant protection strategies in pig-feed production. Organizing on-farm feed production so that protein feed crops are integrated with grain crops contributes to a more diverse crop rotation.     

Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach

To increase the awareness of society to the challenges of global food security, we developed five contrasting global and European scenarios for 2050 and used these to identify important issues for future agricultural research. Using a scenario development method known as morphological analysis, scenarios were constructed that took economic, political, technical, and environmental factors into account. With the scenarios as a starting point future challenges were discussed and research issues and questions were identified in an interactive process with stakeholders and researchers. Based on the outcome of this process, six socioeconomic and biophysical overarching challenges for future agricultural were formulated and related research issues identified. The outcome was compared with research priorities generated in five other research programs. In comparison, our research questions focus more on societal values and the role of consumers in influencing agricultural production, as well as on policy formulation and resolving conflicting goals, areas that are presently under-represented in agricultural research. The partly new and more interdisciplinary research priorities identified in Future Agriculture compared to other programs analyzed are likely a result of the methodological approach used, combining scenarios and interaction between stakeholders and researchers.     

Surface fluxes and atmospheric stability obtained from a surface energy balance model with parameters estimated from satellite remote sensing

A linear programming model is proposed to find the energy strategy for reducing carbon dioxide emission in Taiwan. Scenarios that include energy switching and energy conservation under different emission levels are considered, and the corresponding economic impacts are evaluated. Emissions from thirty-nine sectors are reduced by two major mechanisms. Energy switching is assumed to be induced by energy price change, whereas energy conservation is assumed only in the four most energy-intensive sectors. The results show the economic impact on gross domestic product under different energy scenarios. Appropriate energy strategies for carbon dioxide emission reduction could be implemented based on the scenario analysis.     

European scenarios for EUSES regional distribution model

The regional multimedia distribution model incorporated into EUSES 1.0 is used for the estimation of regionally predicted environmental concentrations in different European scenarios: a scenario representing a typical region in the north of Europe (high fraction connected to sewer systems, lower environmental temperature, high fractions of surface water and natural soil and a low fraction for agricultural soil) and another scenario representing a typical region in the south of Europe (low fraction connected to sewer systems, higher environmental temperature, low fractions for surface water and natural soil, and a high fraction for agricultural soil). The two scenarios are based on average data of countries in Northern and Southern Europe, but are not realistic for any specific country located in these regions. Scenario calculations were carried out using these two scenarios in addition to the generic standard region, given in EUSES 1.0 as a default scenario, and the North-Rhine Westphalian region. The substance properties, including emissions, were left unchanged for all scenarios. For a number of substances, the calculated concentrations in both the North and the South of Europe turned out to be higher than those calculated with the standard generic scenario. Thus, the standard scenario cannot be considered as a 'worst case' scenario per se. Uncertainties due to the regional heterogeneity within Europe are high. It is recommended to use these two additional scenarios for an improved estimation of possible concentration ranges in Europe.     

Evaluation of Byron Instruments Total Organic Carbon (Method 25) Monitoring System

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of “deep uncertainty” presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NO_x emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO₂ emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions.

Implications: Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management options across wide-ranging conditions.     

Potential emissions reduction in road transport sector using biofuel in developing countries

Use of biofuels as transport fuel has high prospect in developing countries as most of them are facing severe energy insecurity and have strong agricultural sector to support production of biofuels from energy crops. Rapid urbanization and economic growth of developing countries have spurred air pollution especially in road transport sector. The increasing demand of petroleum based fuels and their combustion in internal combustion (IC) engines have adverse effect on air quality, human health and global warming. Air pollution causes respiratory problems, adverse effects on pulmonary function, leading to increased sickness absenteeism and induces high health care service costs, premature birth and even mortality. Production of biofuels promises substantial improvement in air quality through reducing emission from biofuel operated automotives. Some of the developing countries have started biofuel production and utilization as transport fuel in local market. This paper critically reviews the facts and prospects of biofuel production and utilization in developing countries to reduce environmental pollution and petro dependency. Expansion of biofuel industries in developing countries can create more jobs and increase productivity by non-crop marginal lands and wastelands for energy crops plantation.Contribution of India and China in biofuel industry in production and utilization can dramatically change worldwide biofuel market and leap forward in carbon cut as their automotive market is rapidly increasing with a souring proportional rise of GHG emissions.     

An evaluation of public health impact of ambient air pollution under various energy scenarios in Shanghai,China

To investigate the potential public health impact of ambient air pollution under various energy scenarios in Shanghai, we estimated the air pollution exposure level of the general population under various planned energy scenarios, and assessed the potential public health impact using the concentration–response functions derived from available epidemiologic studies. The results show that ambient air pollution in relation to various energy scenarios could have significant impact on the health status of Shanghai residents. Compared with base case scenario, implementation of various energy scenarios could prevent 608–5144 and 1189–10,462 PM₁₀-related avoidable deaths (mid-value) in 2010 and 2020, respectively; and it could also decrease substantial cases of relevant diseases. These findings illustrate that an effective energy and environmental policy will play an active role in reduction of air pollutant emissions, improvement of air quality, and public health.     

Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis,high, medium,and low scenarios in 2035

Today’s heavy-duty natural gas–fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas–fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today’s heavy-duty natural gas–fueled fleet penetration is low, today’s total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas–fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These “pump-to-wheels”(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions.

Implications: Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies were combined with future market growth scenarios, estimated technology advancements, and best practices to examine the climate benefit of future fuel switching. The analysis indicates the necessary targets of efficiency, methane emissions, market penetration, and best practices necessary to enable a pathway for natural gas to reduce the carbon intensity of the heavy-duty transportation sector.     

Agriculture as Provider of Both Food and Fuel

A database of global agricultural primary production has been constructed and used to estimate its energy content. The portion of crops available for food and biofuel after postharvest losses was evaluated. The basic conditions for agriculture and plant growth were studied, to ensure sustainable scenarios regarding use of residues. The available energy contents for the world and EU27 was found to be 7,200–9,300 and 430 TWh, respectively, to be compared with food requirements of 7,100 and 530 TWh. Clearly, very little, or nothing, remains for biofuel from agricultural primary crops. However, by using residues and bioorganic waste, it was found that biofuel production could theoretically replace one-fourth of the global consumption of fossil fuels for transport. The expansion potential for global agriculture is limited by availability of land, water, and energy. A future decrease in supply of fossil energy and ongoing land degradation will thus cause difficulties for increased biofuel production from agriculture.     

Food Security: Crops for People Not for Cars

Humankind is currently faced with the huge challenge of securing a sustainable energy supply and biofuels constitute one of the major options. However, the commercially traded edible crops are barely sufficient to meet food demand of the present world population. Certain regions, for example EU-27, do not even have a sufficient indigenous crop production. Of this follows that motor biofuels based on edible crops should be avoided. To replace more than some percent of the fossil motor fuels, non-edible biomass—rest products and wastes—should instead be considered for conversion to biofuels. In this way, about 10% of the current fossil fuels can be replaced. Feeding a world population expected to grow by some 50% during the next 50 years will be a major challenge. For environmental reasons it seems that agricultural land cannot be expanded very much, maybe not at all. The solution to the increasing food demand seems therefore to be using the present crop production more efficiently and increasing output from present agricultural land, maintaining biodiversity and climate stability within reasonable limits. In the future, agriculture will need more energy and more water irrigation. Food production is, however, already very energy demanding, requiring several times more externally provided energy than the energy content of the food itself. A sufficient energy supply will be a key issue for the future farming!     

Environmental and economic evaluation of bioenergy in Ontario, Canada

We examined life cycle environmental and economic implications of two near-term scenarios for converting cellulosic biomass to energy, generating electricity from cofiring biomass in existing coal power plants, and producing ethanol from biomass in stand-alone facilities in Ontario, Canada. The study inventories near-term biomass supply in the province, quantifies environmental metrics associated with the use of agricultural residues for producing electricity and ethanol, determines the incremental costs of switching from fossil fuels to biomass, and compares the cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions abatement achieved through the use of the bioenergy. Implementing a biomass cofiring rate of 10% in existing coal-fired power plants would reduce annual GHG emissions by 2.3 million metric tons (t) of CO2 equivalent (7% of the province's coal power plant emissions). The substitution of gasoline with ethanol/gasoline blends would reduce annual provincial lightduty vehicle fleet emissions between 1.3 and 2.5 million t of CO2 equivalent (3.5-7% of fleet emissions). If biomass sources other than agricultural residues were used, additional emissions reductions could be realized. At current crude oil prices ($70/barrel) and levels of technology development of the bioenergy alternatives, the biomass electricity cofiring scenario analyzed is more cost-effective for mitigating GHG emissions ($22/t of CO2 equivalent for a 10% cofiring rate) than the stand-alone ethanol production scenario ($92/t of CO2 equivalent). The economics of biomass cofiring benefits from existing capital, whereas the cellulosic ethanol scenario does not. Notwithstanding this result, there are several factors that increase the attractiveness of ethanol. These include uncertainty in crude oil prices, potential for marked improvements in cellulosic ethanol technology and economics, the province's commitment to 5% ethanol content in gasoline, the possibility of ethanol production benefiting from existing capital, and there being few alternatives for moderate-to-large-scale GHG emissions reductions in the transportation sector.     

Nuclear Energy

Nuclear energy can play a role in carbon free production of electrical energy, thus making it interesting for tomorrow’s energy mix. However, several issues have to be addressed. In fission technology, the design of so-called fourth generation reactors show great promise, in particular in addressing materials efficiency and safety issues. If successfully developed, such reactors may have an important and sustainable part in future energy production. Working fusion reactors may be even more materials efficient and environmental friendly, but also need more development and research. The roadmap for development of fourth generation fission and fusion reactors, therefore, asks for attention and research in these fields must be strengthened.     

Human health risk assessment case study: an abandoned metal smelter site in Poland

United States Environmental Protection Agency methodologies for human health risk assessment (HRA) were applied in a Brownfields Demonstration Project on the Warynski smelter site (WSS), an abandoned industrial site at Piekary Slaskie town, Upper Silesia, Poland. The HRA included the baseline risk assessment (BRA) and the development of risk-based preliminary remedial goals (RBPRGs). The HRA focused on surface area covered with waste materials, which were evaluated with regard to the potential risks they may pose to humans. Cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, lead, and zinc were proposed as the contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) at WSS based on archive data on chemical composition of waste located on WSS. For the defined future land use patterns, the industrial (I) and recreational (II) exposure scenarios were assumed and evaluated. The combined hazard index for all COPCs was 3.1E+00 for Scenario I and 3.2E+00 for Scenario II. Regarding potential carcinogenic risks associated with the inhalation route, only cadmium was a contributor, with risks of 1.6E-06 and 2.6E-07 for Scenario I and Scenario II, respectively. The results of the BRA indicated that the potential health risks at WSS were mainly associated with waste material exposure to cadmium (industrial and recreational scenarios) and lead (industrial scenario). RBPRGs calculated under the industrial scenario were 1.17E+03 and 1.62E+03 mg/kg for cadmium and lead, respectively. The RBPRG for cadmium was 1.18E+03 mg/kg under the recreational scenario. The BRA results, as well as RBCs, are comparable for both scenarios, so it is impossible to prioritize land use patterns for WSS based on these results. For choosing a future land use pattern or an appropriate redevelopment option, different factors would be decisive in the decision-making process, e.g., social, market needs, technical feasibility and costs of redevelopment actions or acceptance of local community.     

Long-term scenarios for surface transport

Current trends in transport indicate that the system is moving away from a sustainable development (e.g., due to rising CO₂ emissions), and that major changes in technology and public policy, as well as in the behaviour of individuals, are necessary to make the transport system more compatible with environmental sustainability. This indicates the need to assess a set of future images for transport in relation to the environment. In this paper, reference and expert scenarios, which can act as a judgement framework for a sustainable transport system, are constructed on the basis of the recently developed 'spider model'. Based on a set of distinct characteristics of a transport system, represented by eight axes in the spatial, institutional, economic and social psychological field, an evaluation framework is constructed, which visualises the driving forces that largely influence the future of the transport system. There are several directions in which these factors may develop, and each of them will separately or in combination lead to entirely different transport systems. In this way, many scenarios can be constructed by connecting points on the successive axes. Such scenarios may range from market-oriented to regulatory pictures; the first may lead to a transport system in which individual, the second in which collective modes of transport dominate. Next, expected and desired scenarios are constructed from the opinions of Dutch transport experts, who responded to a nationwide survey. The expected scenario indicates that many current trends will continue, while the transport system is largely the same as the current one. The desired scenario, on the other hand, gives a more collective system, in which also many new modes are operating. The conclusion is that there are many roads for achieving a sustainable transport system, but that whichever one is chosen, it will be hard to follow.     

A socio-economic method for estimating future air pollutant emissions—Chicago case study

This paper presents the development of an econometric-emission model to formulate future anthropogenic emission inventories for different societal and climate change scenarios. Our approach is to formulate the emission projections for a given scenario into growth factors that can be used to project forward the 1999 National Emission Inventory (NEI99). The process involves (1) mapping NEI99 source classification code (SCC)-based emissions into the sector or standard industrial classification (SIC)-based representation used by the econometric model, (2) developing a sectoral emission intensity (EMI) defined as the sector emissions per unit of sector economic output and the mechanism to consider EMI variations over time, (3) using the resulting EMI with econometric models and future emission activities to project future emissions, (4) and then mapping the emissions back to the original NEI99 format. As a case study, we apply the model to project emissions in the Chicago metropolitan area. The results show that the model is a fast, flexible, yet reasonable tool to produce a wide range of emission scenarios that are specific to regions, and would prove valuable for future air quality and other impact studies.     

Computation of uncertainty for atmospheric emission projections from key pollutant sources in Spain

Emission projections are important for environmental policy, both to evaluate the effectiveness of abatement strategies and to determine legislation compliance in the future. Moreover, including uncertainty is an essential added value for decision makers. In this work, projection values and their associated uncertainty are computed for pollutant emissions corresponding to the most significant activities from the national atmospheric emission inventory in Spain. Till now, projections had been calculated under three main scenarios: “without measures” (WoM), “with measures” (WM) and “with additional measures” (WAM). For the first one, regression techniques had been applied, which are inadequate for time-dependent data. For the other scenarios, values had been computed taking into account expected activity growth, as well as policies and measures. However, only point forecasts had been computed. In this work statistical methodology has been applied for: a) Inclusion of projection intervals for future time points, where the width of the intervals is a measure of uncertainty. b) For the WoM scenario, ARIMA models are applied to model the dynamics of the processes. c) In the WM scenario, bootstrap is applied as an additional non-parametric tool, which does not rely on distributional assumptions and is thus more general. The advantages of using ARIMA models for the WoM scenario including uncertainty are shown. Moreover, presenting the WM scenario allows observing if projected emission values fall within the intervals, thus showing if the measures to be taken to reach the scenario imply a significant improvement. Results also show how bootstrap techniques incorporate stochastic modelling to produce forecast intervals for the WM scenario.     

Life Cycle Analyses and Resource Assessments

Prof. Ulgiati stresses that we should always use an ecosystem view when transforming energy from one form to another. Sustainable growth and development of both environmental and human-dominated systems require optimum use of available resources for maximum power output. We have to adapt to the laws of nature because nature has to take care of all the waste products we produce. The presentation addresses a much needed shift away from linear production and consumption pattern, toward reorganization of economies and lifestyle that takes complexity—of resources, of the environment and of the economy—into proper account. The best way to reach maximum yield from the different kinds of biomass is to use biorefineries. Biorefinery is defined as the sustainable processing of biomass into a spectrum of marketable products like heat, power, fuels, chemicals, food, feed, and materials. However, biomass from agricultural land must be used for the production of food and not fuel. Prof. Voss focuses on the sustainability of energy supply chains and energy systems. Life cycle analyses (LCA) provides the conceptual framework for a comprehensive comparative evaluation of energy supply options with regard to their resource requirements as well as the health and environmental impact. Full scope LCA considers not only the emissions from plant operation, construction, and decommissioning but also the environmental burdens and resource requirements associated with the entire lifetime of all relevant upstream and downstream processes within the energy chain. This article describes the results of LCA analyses for state-of-the-art heating and electricity systems as well as of advanced future systems. Total costs are used as a measure for the overall resource consumption.     

Power to gas: an option for 2060 high penetration rate of renewable energy scenario of China

Replacing conventional fossil fuel power plants with large-scale renewable energy sources (RES) is a crucial aspect of the decarbonization of the power sector and represents a key part of the carbon-neutral strategy of China. The high penetration rate of renewable energy in the electricity system, however, implies the challenges of dealing with the intermittency and fluctuation of RES. Power to gas (P2G), which can convert surplus renewable power into a chemical form of energy (i.e., synthetic gas), can help handle this challenge and supply new energy carriers for various energy sectors. By modeling three potential 2060 energy mix scenarios in China, this paper aims to describe the possible contribution of the high penetration rate of renewable energy combined with P2G in the future sustainable energy system. Different schemes are listed and compared, and the results are used in a basic economic evaluation of the synthetic gas production cost for the P2G plants. Ideally, nearly 18 million tons of carbon dioxide would be recycled and transformed into methane (around 9.37 km³) annually in China. Considering a zero price for the excess renewable power and future costs of the components, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the final production of methane is estimated at 0.86 $/m³_SNG.