全球气候变化对森林生态系统的影响

人类活动所引起的温室效应及由此造成的全球气候变化和对全球生态环境的影响正越来越引起人们的关注。作为全球陆地生态系统一个重要组分的森林对未来气候变化的响应更是人们关注的重点。文中系统地论述了未来气候变化对森林生态系统树种组成、林分结构、分布和生产力的潜在响应,提出了今后需要加强的一些研究领域。     

全球气候变化对南极淡水藻类的影响

1982～2008年对中国南极长城站和中山站地区主要湖泊、溪流、雪地等淡水藻类进行了调查研究.结果表明,淡水藻类优势种类为:双尖菱板藻(Hantzschiaa mphioxys),端泥生藻(Luticola mutica),拟钝泥生藻(Lutiola muticopsis),细小隐球藻(Aphanocapsa elachista),极小色球藻(Chroococcus minimus),寒冷席藻(Phormidium frigidum),赖氏鞘氏藻(Lyngbya lagerheimii),拉氏黏球藻(Gloecapsa ralfsiana),易脆席藻(Phormidium fragile),雪衣藻(Chlamydomo nasnivalis),南极侧果藻(Pleurococcus antarcticus),南极螺翼藻(Scotiella antarctica)和细长聚球藻(Synechococcus elongates).回归分析显示了微、小型藻类细胞丰度与水温呈显著的正相关,而与磷酸盐和硝酸盐呈显著负相关.南极气候尤其是水温的变化,引起湖泊藻类丰度与种群结构发生改变.     

全球气候变化对太湖蓝藻水华发展演变的影响

对太湖周边4个常规气象观测站的47年观测资料进行分析,以探讨全球气候变化对太湖蓝藻水华演变的影响.结果表明,20世纪80年代之前,太湖流域气象条件的年代际尺度变化趋势不利于蓝藻的生长和水华的形成,而在20世纪80年代以后,尤其是20世纪90年代以后,气温、风速、降水变化都较大,且都有利于蓝藻的生长和水华的形成,这与蓝藻水华的观测事实一致.据此定义了蓝藻水华气象指数,每年太湖蓝藻水华气象指数能够很好地反映蓝藻水华的发展变化情况.进而,分析了反映ENSO循环变化的Ni?o3指数与太湖流域气象条件变化的相关性,结果表明ENSO循环与太湖流域风速、降水在年代际尺度上有着非常好的相关性.据此预测,2000年以后10~20年中,太湖蓝藻水华气象指数将继续在高位振荡,若蓝藻生长所需的营养盐浓度得不到有效的控制和明显的降低,蓝藻水华在气候条件的影响下,仍将可能大面积暴发.     

Agricultural adaptation to climate change in China

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＡｄａｐｔａｔｉｏｎｒｅｆｅｒｓｔｏｅｆｆｏｒｔｓｔｏｒｅｄｕｃｅｓｙｓｔｅｍ’ｓｖｕｌｎｅｒａｂｉｌｉｔｉｅｓｔｏｃｌｉｍａｔｅ.Ａｍｏｎｇｔｈｅｍｏｓｔｆｒｅｑｕｅｎｔｌｙｃｉｔｅｄｈｕｍａｎｓｙｓｔｅｍｓｌｉｋｅｌｙｔｏｂｅａｆｆｅｃｔｅｄｂｙｃｌｉｍａｔｉｃｃｈａｎｇｅｉｓａｇｒｉｃｕｌｔｕｒｅ.Ｉｔｉｓｅｓｐｅｃｉａｌｌｙｓｅｎｓｉｔｉｖｅｔｏｔｈｅｃｏｎｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓｏｆｇｌｏｂａｌｗａｒｍｉｎｇａｓｉｔｒｅｌｉｅｓｈｅａｖｉｌｙｏｎｔｈｅｗｅａｔｈｅｒａｎ…     

Impacts of climate change on wheat development and production in the northern China

In this paper, impacts of climate change on wheat development rate and production in the northern China are discussed. The results show that the temperature is a controlling factor of development rate but the precipitation is not. The higher the temperature is. the faster the development and the shorter development period will be. Without consideration to varieties and cropping system, meteorological yield of winter wheat would decrease 170.40, 134.25, 98.70 and 97.20 kg/hm2 in the north China and 13.97, 7.95, 39.60 and 19.80 kg/hm2 in the northwest China compared with that in 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, respectively, when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is doubled. In drought and semi-drought regions, the spring wheat yield would drop with the temperature rise in and raise with the precipitation increase. The influence of temperature on weight of leaf and stalk is also remarkable.     

Simulating sensitivities of Changbai Mountain forests to potential climate change

ＳｉｍｕｌａｔｉｎｇｓｅｎｓｉｔｉｖｉｔｉｅｓｏｆＣｈａｎｇｂａｉＭｏｕｎｔａｉｎｆｏｒｅｓｔｓｔｏｐｏｔｅｎｔｉａｌｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅ￥ＹａｎＸｉａｏｄｏｎｇ；ＺｈａｏＳｈｉｄｏｎｇ（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＡｐｐｌｉｅｄＥｃｏｌｏｇｙ．Ｃｈ...     

Forest land use change in the philippines and climate change mitigation

Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha (10⁶ ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (10¹⁵ g) of C to theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg(10¹² g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year 2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets.     

The role of atmospheric aerosol composition in climate change

The chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols has been investigated. Contributions ofsulfate and soot in aerosols to the atmospheric extinction are studied. Discussions are made on the problems of aerosol emitted from volcano, forest fires in northern China, 1987 and oil field fires in Kuwait, 1991. It is indicated that the changes in concentration, particle size, and chemical composition of aerosol after those events could have impacts on the climate change either regionally or globally and that the impact of aerosol particles on climate change could compensate for some temperature increase caused by greenhouse gases and the increase of surface intensity of ultraviolet radiation due to ozone layer depletion.     

Impacts of climate change on development rate and production of corn in the northeastern China

In this paper, the impacts of climate change on development rate and production of corn in the northeastern China are discussed. The results show that the higher the temperature is, the faster the development rate will be. And the more the precipitation is, the slower the development rate will be. Of which, air temperature is the controlling factor of corn development rate. The influences of development rate on corn yield are remarkable. The impacts of development rate on production in first and last periods are great, and small in the middle two periods. The development rate is positive by relate with corn production from sowing to emergence stage and negative during other periods. So, it is very important to arrange a suitable sowing time for com cultivating in the northeastern China.     

Soil carbon pool in China and its global significance

ＳｏｉｌｃａｒｂｏｎｐｏｏｌｉｎＣｈｉｎａａｎｄｉｔｓｇｌｏｂａｌｓｉｇｎｉｆｉｃａｎｃｅ￥ＦａｎｇＪｉｎｇｙｕｎ，ＬｉｕＧｕｏｈｕａ，ＸｕＳｏｎｇｌｉｎｇ（ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＣｅｎｔｅｒｆｏｒＥｃｏ－ＥｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌＳｃｉｅｎｃｅ，Ｃｈｉｎ...     

中国沙尘暴的下降趋势与气候变迁的对比

通过对观测数据的分析,描述了中国沙尘暴1961～2000年的年变化,以及1961～1980年和1991～2000年中国沙尘暴发生频次的空间分布,并对比了用“气候因子”描述的1951～1980年和1991～2000年中国北方气候.结果发现气候因子分布与沙尘暴的发生频次分布对应性很好,提出气候变迁导致在这40年中国沙尘暴整体上呈现出下降趋势.     

全球变暖背景下中亚兴都库什、喀喇昆仑及天山气候变化研究进展

中亚兴都库什、喀喇昆仑及天山山脉（HKT）是气候变化敏感区,其在全球变暖背景下的气候变化对区域生态和经济系统的稳定性及可持续发展有重要意义。目前对中亚高海拔地区的研究多集中于局部区域,有关HKT地区气候变化的综合对比分析较为缺乏。本文对HKT地区现代气候变化的相关研究成果进行简单梳理和回顾,重点总结了HKT地区气候变化特征、影响机制及其与全球变暖的联系。结果表明：（1）近60 a,HKT地区不同区域气候的时空特征存在差异,从时间上看,天山的年均温及年降水量均呈上升趋势,而兴都库什-喀喇昆仑山的年均温呈不显著增加趋势,其年降水量变化趋势不稳定;从空间上看,HKT地区山脉南坡气温高于北坡,但北坡降水量高于南坡,且天山南北坡年降水均呈上升趋势。（2）HKT地区的气候变化除了受西风环流、南亚印度季风及局地条件等影响外,还受到北大西洋涛动和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动等大尺度气候模态的调制,如兴都库什-喀喇昆仑山脉在NAO正（负）位相和ENSO暖（冷）位相降水趋于增加（减少）。     

中国湖泊温度变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

利用2000~2015年MODIS温度产品数据MOD11A1,以中国不同自然地理单元且面积大于250km²的9大湖泊（呼伦湖、兴凯湖、洪泽湖、太湖、抚仙湖、纳木错、色林错、青海湖、博斯腾湖）为研究对象,利用小波变换的方法对湖泊温度的季节与年际变化特征以及对气候变化的响应进行了研究.结果表明：9大湖泊温度季节变化特征明显;湖泊温度的年温差从北向南随纬度变小而逐渐减小.在2000~2015年,湖泊温度的年际变化趋势均表现为先上升后下降.抚仙湖、色林错和博斯腾湖湖温年际变化的拐点均为2009年,其余6个湖泊年际变化的拐点均为2010年.根据再分析资料得到的湖泊气温均在2011~2015年呈下降趋势.所有湖泊水温对湖泊气温的响应程度强,湖温和气温的变化趋势基本一致.在气候变暖的背景下,各个湖泊结冰期出现了不同的响应特征.在2000~2015年,色林错结冰开始日期延后趋势最明显,而纳木错结冰开始日期提前趋势明显;呼伦湖融冰日期提前趋势最明显,而纳木错融冰日期呈延后趋势明显;呼伦湖和青海湖的结冰期缩短,纳木错和色林错的结冰期延长,而兴凯湖和博斯腾湖结冰期变化趋势不显著.     

全球变化背景下南方红豆杉地域分布变化

气候是影响植物栖息地的重要因素之一,预测气候变化对植物潜在分布范围变动的影响,对促进植物资源的可持续利用具有重要意义。基于最大熵Maxent模型结合11个环境变量,预测2050s三种气候情景下（RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5）南方红豆杉（Taxus chinensis var. mairei）在中国的潜在地理分布状况,分析影响其分布的主要因素,探讨其分布格局的改变对我国亚热带北界的指示意义。结果表明：（1）南方红豆杉的适宜栖息地（生境指数P >0.2）主要分布在我国亚热带暖温带季风区,绝大部分核心栖息地（生境指数P >0.6）分布在秦岭大巴山以南地区;（2）Jackknife测试结果显示,最冷季降水量（bio19）、气温平均日较差（bio2）、气温年变化范围（bio7）、最暖季平均温度（bio10）和海拔（Elev）对南方红豆杉空间分布适宜性影响最大; （3）随气候变化,2050s南方红豆杉有沿纬度向北和海拔向上迁移的趋势,并且我国亚热带北界受气候变化的影响将逐渐向北移动。     

中国西部年降水量的气候变化

中国西部大部分处于干旱、半干旱地区,而且降水量长期变化剧烈。论文综合整理了17个年降水量代用资料序列,其中11个为树木年轮,4个为史料,2个为冰芯积累量。所有序列均采用10年平均值,对1880～1979年的100年平均求每10年平均百分率距平。EOF1表明河套以西到祁连山北部有一致的变化。这个特征与1951～1999年的观测资料及模拟结果的EOF1十分相似。这表明代用资料能反映西部年降水量变化的主要特征。根据代用资料EOF1的时间系数及中心区降水量变化曲线,17世纪,特别是上半叶干旱严重。有资料证明,这个干旱期可能开始于16世纪70年代。近50年是400年以来中国西部年降水量最丰沛的时期。多雨主要发生在气候剧烈变暖的20世纪最后30年。从代用资料来看,降水量变化有“世纪周期”。17世纪的干旱与20世纪末的多雨是否分别与小冰期及现代气候变暖有关,还要进一步研究。     

气候变化背景下小兴安岭天然林的模拟研究

建立的林窗模型ＮＥＷＣＯＰ,被证明适合于模拟小兴安岭天然森林的分布、生长和演替,并可用于跟踪现有森林的生长和演替动态。在ＧＩＳＳ２ｘＣＯ^２和ＧＦＤＬ２ｘＣＯ^２气候变化情景下对现有林分的模拟实验显示：小兴安岭森林对气候变化具有敏感性；尽管森林对不同气候变化情景的响应明显不同,但基本趋势是一致的,即蒙古栎等阔叶树在森林中将占越来越大的比例     

Climatic change and urbanization effect in China

Climatic change and urbanization effect in China during the last 39 years were investigated. It is found that a warming of about 0.23℃ for the annual temperature has been noticed from 1951 to 1989. The warmings of about 0.78 ℃ in winter and 0.34 3℃ in spring have been shown. It is also presented that a cooling of about -0.27℃ in summer has been indicated. The bigger cities are warmer than smaller cities in China. The dried trends in the annual precipitation during the last 39 years were presented. The precipitation decreased obviously in summer all over China. The bigger cities were drier than smaller cities.     

Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the “Brazilian Proposal”). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change—from emissions of greenhouse gases alone—are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO₂ emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points.     

青藏高原东北部气候变化的异质性及其成因

利用1961-2016年西宁等青藏高原东北部13个气象台站气温、降水等气象资料以及国家气候中心发布的南海季风指数、西伯利亚高压指数等大气环流特征量数据,分析近56年来气候变化与高原主体的差异性及其可能的气候成因。研究表明：近56年来青藏高原东北部气候变暖趋势十分显著,年平均气温气候倾向率高达0.39 ℃/10 a,呈现出三次明显的阶梯性增高态势,并于1994年前后发生了由冷到暖的突变,同时具有明显的空间差异性;年降水量及四季降水量均没有明显变化趋势,虽然经历了2002年左右由少到多的变化,但并未出现明显突变,年降水量具有3年、5年的准周期,而年降水日数微弱减少,降水强度呈增加趋势;该区域气候变化的年际波动主要受到东亚季风、高原季风和南海季风的年际振荡及其相互作用的影响,而西风环流的作用并不明显,植被覆盖的恢复既是对2002年以来降水量增加的具体反应,同时也对于气候变暖趋势起到了一定的缓和作用。