邓楠理事长在中国可持续发展研究会2007年学术年会上的致辞

各位代表、各位来宾： 大家好! 首先，我代表中国可持续发展研究会对参加2007年学术年会的嘉宾、专家与学者表示热烈的欢迎，向多年来支持和致力于研究会工作的各界领导、各位同仁表示衷心的感谢!     

Age at first marriage and its relation to fertility in Bangladesh

The 2007 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey(BDHS)data are exploited to examine the effects of socioeconomic and demographic factors on age at first marriage linkage to reproductive behavior of Bangladeshi women.The mean age at first marriage of women is found to be 15.48 years.Multivariate logistic regression technique shows that place of residence,religion,region,wealth index,education,and occupation are significantly important factors for determining age at first marriage.The relationship between marriage and fertility suggests that women who marry at a younger age produce more children than women who marry late.Findings of this study show that if the age at first marriage of adolescents is increased by 1 year,the age at first birth is postponed by 0.728 years.With the increase in age at first marriage,the fecundability of women sharply rises,whereas the proportion of temporary sterility decreases.Although there is a positive association between age at first marriage and age-specific marital fertility rates,the total parity per woman at the end of the reproductive period is expected to reduce by 0.196 for each 1-year delayed marriage.     

沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究——以上海浦东新区为例

沿海城市在全球发展中具有重要的战略地位，然而特殊的地理位置和高度集中的人口及财富也决定了其面临灾害具有较高的脆弱性，即同等灾害强度下，沿海城市遭遇自然灾害时的人口伤亡更多、经济损失更大。从灾害系统承灾体的角度，分析影响灾害脆弱性的基础设施、城市形态与结构和灾害管理体制等5个方面，顺应脆弱性评价定量化的趋势，依据一定的原则，不分灾种，面对区域和人群，选取代表性指标尝试构建了沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性的评价指标体系，利用AHP法对该区域相应指标的权重进行确定，建立了脆弱性模型，并在收集和标准化数据的基础上，以上海市浦东开发区为例进行了实证分析。结果证明，模拟结果与实际情况基本吻合，可以为沿海城市防灾减灾提供科科学依据，有一定的参考价值。     

New energy policy and low-carbon society in Japan after the Great East Japan Earthquake

The Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 devastated the eastern region of Japan.Due to the resulting nuclear accident,Japanese Cabinet decided to revise its energy policies.The Energy and Environment Council in National Policy Unit published options on the nation’s scenarios for energy and economy in 2030.We estimated the economic impacts of the options to national economy and households in 2030.Finally,we clarified significant factors to establish a secure,affluent and low-carbon society based on the energy scenarios.     

用水户参与灌溉管理模式运行机制与绩效实证分析

我国是一个水资源非常短缺的国家。推行用水户参与灌溉管理（SIDD）模式是解决这一难题的重要措施之一。SIDD管理模式运行机制可以从产权制度安排、运营制度安排、激励制度安排、组织制度安排等进行分析，其运行绩效体现在用水机制、管理方式、交易成本降低等方面。结合江苏皂河灌区管理体制改革，分析了SIDD管理模式的运行机制、绩效及存在的问题。为完善这一管理模式．主要的建议是：制订相关的规章制度，使农户广泛参与；建立多元化的投入机制．拓宽资金来源渠道；遵循市场经济运作机制，深化农业水价改革；明确政府职能。加强指导、服务和监管。     

乡村道路收益评估分析

乡村道路建设对于农村的经济发展、降低贫困等具有重要意义,对于如何评价乡村道路收益一直以来都存在着争议。传统的成本-效益分析方法具体来说有消费者剩余方法、生产者剩余方法等,但是由于这些方法都存在共同的缺陷,即不适合衡量交通流量小的地区乡村道路收益,对乡村道路收益的衡量依然存在低估的问题,引起了诸多学者的批评。本文通过构建新的计量经济学方法,利用对湖北农村家庭的实际调查数据,发现乡村道路建设可以有效地节约农村家庭交通成本、提高男性和女性劳动力的农业工资水平、提高学龄儿童的入学率、降低农业和非农业生产投入产品的价格等,对农村家庭具有重要的即时和长期的正向利益影响。     

Application of optimal harvesting decision model to the analysis of Chinese forestry economic policy

This paper firstly extends the single period forest optimal harvesting decision model to infinite periods,in order to indicate how to determine the optimal rotation period aimed at maximizing forest revenue in all directions when repeat planting and harvesting trees on the same plot of earth till infinite future.The study also analyzes the influence of discounted rates,timber price,harvesting costs,planting costs,and tax on the determination of optimal rotation period;and how the optimal rotation period will change when we introduce the factors of continuously rising timber price and ecological revenue.Secondly,the authors introduce the intergenerational equity principle into the above model to design a resource-exploiting mode which satisfies bom the dynamic efficiency principle and the intergenerational equity principle.Last but not least,the research applies the above model to the analysis of Chinese forestry economic policy and explains the economic theory of institutions such as Government Purchasing Ecological Forest,Tree Compensation,and Forestry Subsidization,which provides a necessary theoretical foundation for future application of these new institutions.Besides,in regard to mis theoretical framework,the authors analyze the necessity of the Natural Forest Protection and Grain for Green projects which are currently being implemented in China.We also point out the emphasis of work to insure the project sustainable and successful.Finally,the research discusses the enterprise’s incentive to over-the-quota harvesting and the government’s means of restricting such behavior,which highlights the fact mat improved supervision and higher penalties are helpful in restricting over-the-quota harvesting.     

Risk evaluation of natural disasters based on connection function

There are many uncertain factors,such as stochastic,fuzzy and gray information in the risk analysis on natural hazard.The set pair analysis(SPA)deals effectively with the various uncertain factors contributing to evaluation of the risk level of natural disasters.The evaluation indicators and standards of natural disasters risk are analyzed by identity-discrepancycontrary(IDC).The result,the connection numbers,still has uncertainty information.Thus,yielding the risk evaluation model of natural disasters based on connection function,which construct a set pair relation between the indicators of connection numbers and comprehensive evaluation standards,and describe uncertainty of the connection numbers by using connection function.The study showed that the proposed model takes into account only the uncertainty of risk evaluation indicator identification on natural disasters,also the uncertainty of result connection numbers.This approach gives full consideration to the uncertainty of systematic evaluation process along with the actual meaning of comprehensive evaluation functions.Therefore,this means it is able to reduce the uncertainty of final evaluation results and improve the accuracy and reasonability of evaluation results.This model is capable of reflecting actual situation of the risk evaluation on natural disaster affected by various uncertain factors and has a promotional value in the natural disaster risk assessment.     

Resources and international climate change policy gridlock

Few other policy zones are as complex as the issue of climate change.If the more pessimistic projections of climate change doom are correct,then the failure to address the issue is likely to be catastrophic and irreversible.The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted the potential extinction of many species and that the existence of small-island and other vulnerable countries will be threatened if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue.Climate change is a transboundary problem and requires unprecedented levels of cooperation between states and serious and sustained responses from major emitters.However,the growing demand and consumption of natural resources for continued energy security and cornucopian economic growth have undermined the outcomes of international climate change negotiations.It is argued here that there is a strong connection between the major emitters’positions at United Nations’climate talks,their possessions,dependence and consumption of natural resources,and the continued undermining of international climate change policy for unsustainable growth.This paper assesses the resource politics of the US,China,India,Canada,Russia,and Saudi Arabia and their positions at climate talks to show the link between lack of climate change policy progress and the positions of these main players.     

Natural outdoor environments and mental and physical health: Relationships and mechanisms

BackgroundEvidence is growing for the beneficial impacts of natural outdoor environments on health. However, most of the evidence has focused on green spaces and little evidence is available on health benefits of blue spaces and about possible mediators and modifiers of such impacts. We investigated the association between natural outdoor environments (separately for green and blue spaces) and health (general and mental) and its possible mediators and modifiers.MethodsCross-sectional data from adults interviewed in Catalonia (Spain) between 2010 and 2012 as part of the Catalonia Health Survey were used. The collected data included sociodemographic characteristics, self-perceived general health, mental health, physical activity and social support. Indicators of surrounding greenness and access to natural outdoor environments within 300 m of the residence and degree of urbanization were derived for residential addresses. Associations were estimated using logistic regression and negative binominal models.ResultsGreen spaces were associated with better self-perceived general health and better mental health, independent of degree of urbanization. The associations were more consistent for surrounding greenness than for access to green spaces. The results were consistent for different buffers, and when stratifying for socioeconomic status. Slightly stronger associations were found for women and residents of non-densely populated areas. No association was found between green spaces and social contacts and physical activity. The results for blue spaces were not conclusive.ConclusionGreen spaces are associated with better general and mental health across strata of urbanization, socioeconomic status, and genders. Mechanisms other than physical activity or social support may explain these associations.     

循环经济与节能减排解析

目前我国经济增长模式是粗放的、不循环的经济增长模式，经济发展过程中存在着高增长、高能耗、高环境问题，作者通过一系列的数据对比和分析，指出当前发展循环经济，促进节能减排是我国经济发展过程中面临的第一要务。胡锦涛同志在党的十七大报告中提出一定要“落实节能减排工作责任制”，更表明了我国当前发展循环经济，促进节能减排的决心。本文首先提出循环经济与节能减排的相关概念及含义；再以重点行业中的电力、钢铁行业如何搞好能源资源节约和“三废”综合利用为例对我国发展循环经济、促进节能减排进行了实证分析；最后提出要通过加快资源价格机制的改革、促进技术创新、完善政策法规体系、转变领导片面追求GDP增长的认识等措施来达到发展循环经济、促进节能减排的目标。     

加拿大环境与可持续发展科技创新及对我国的启示

加拿大重视环境保护与可持续发展中的科技创新,在全联邦范围内营造了"政府引导、企业主体、国民支持"的良好创新氛围,形成了"以科技创新支撑环境产业发展,以环境产业促进环境保护与可持续发展"的鲜明环保特色,走出了一条科技创新、产业发展、环境保护和可持续发展三者协同发展、相互制衡、良性循环的发展路子,值得我国借鉴.在我国的环境与可持续发展科技创新中,存在着创新能力不足、产学研合作薄弱、产业化乏力等问题.本文通过中加比较,探讨了我国实施环境与可持续发展科技创新的对策思路,即政府应完善环保法规政策、健全环保标准和管理体系;应增加科研投入,建立政府调控下的市场化投资体系和环境科技的产业化发展;应选择重点领域实现优先发展,突破瓶颈产业;应重视合作创新,加强部门合作,科研机构合作以及国际合作.     

中国地表权、地下权概念、应用模式及相关问题分析

文章通过对地表权、地下权相关法律概念的梳理,指出地表权、地下权概念界定的复杂性,借鉴《商业词典》对地表权和地下权的定义,探讨了在中国矿产资源一元所有制及土地二元所有制并存的情形下,地表权与地下权的应用模式、相关产权界定及存在的问题。文章分三种情形对二者的应用模式进行了探讨,指出:地表权与地下权相分离的模式是符合中国国情的一种合理选择,但是在具体实践中却存在农村集体作为土地拥有者的地位没有得到应有的尊重、矿业权主体行政审批问题严重、矿产资源的国家所有权权益没有得到应有的体现、矿产资源开发中的环境产权界定不清晰等问题;在探讨中指出两个启迪性的思路:一是使农村集体参与矿产资源开发收益分成模式;二是在现有的征地制度下,理顺价格机制,建立有效的土地流转市场,在土地使用权转让中,给予土地所有者以价格补偿。文章进一步对矿产资源开发中的土地所有权界定、税费问题、土地价格补偿及环境产权分配给予相应的分析并给出建议。     

Chlorinated biphenyls and pesticides in migrating and resident seabirds from East and West Antarctica

The unhatched eggs of the following seabirds were analyzed to quantify PCBs, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), α-, β-, γ-, δ-hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), o,p' and p,p' isomers of DDT, DDD and DDE: resident Adèlie (Pygoscelis adèliae, ADPE) and Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri, EMPE) penguins, migrating snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea, SNPT) and South Polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki, SPSK) from the Ross Sea (East Antarctica); and migrating Brown skua (Catharacta antartica, BRSK) and resident ADPE from the Brainsfield Strait (West Antarctica). The general aims were to evaluate the contaminant accumulation in eggs of migrating and resident species in the two study areas, and to compare levels in penguins and skuas nesting in East and West Antarctica. PCB congener and HCH and DDT isomer profiles were also assessed. Comparisons were evaluated using seven PCB congeners (IUPAC nos. 28, 52, 101, 118+149, 138, 153, and 180), p,p'-DDE, ΣDDTs, and ΣHCHs. Higher contaminant concentrations were detected in migrating seabirds (South polar skua and brown skua)>sub-Antarctic species (snow petrel)>Antarctic species (penguins) from both the sampling sites, suggesting contamination events at lower latitudes for those birds migrating northward. HCHs showed the lowest concentrations in all species (from 0.03±0.03 ng/g wet wt in SPSK to 1.81±1.23 ng/g wet wt in ADPE from West Antarctica), and PCBs were the most abundant contaminants (from 4.34±2.15 ng/g wet wt. in EMPE to 53.41±19.61 ng/g wet wt. in brown skua). Among pesticides, it is relevant the detection of p,p'-DDT in Adèlie penguin from West Antarctica and in both species of skua; the detection of this pesticide can confirm its actual use in certain malaria-endemic countries from where it is transferred through the long range transport to the polar regions. Contaminants did not show any significant temporal trend during a ten year time span, from 1994/95 to 2004/05, in organisms collected in East Antarctica and they did not indicate any latitudinal gradient along the Ross Sea coasts.     

Chlorinated biphenyls and pesticides in migrating and resident seabirds from East and West Antarctica

The unhatched eggs of the following seabirds were analyzed to quantify PCBs, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), α-, β-, γ-, δ-hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), o,p′ and p,p′ isomers of DDT, DDD and DDE: resident Adèlie (Pygoscelis adèliae, ADPE) and Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri, EMPE) penguins, migrating snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea, SNPT) and South Polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki, SPSK) from the Ross Sea (East Antarctica); and migrating Brown skua (Catharacta antartica, BRSK) and resident ADPE from the Brainsfield Strait (West Antarctica). The general aims were to evaluate the contaminant accumulation in eggs of migrating and resident species in the two study areas, and to compare levels in penguins and skuas nesting in East and West Antarctica. PCB congener and HCH and DDT isomer profiles were also assessed. Comparisons were evaluated using seven PCB congeners (IUPAC nos. 28, 52, 101, 118 + 149, 138, 153, and 180), p,p′-DDE, ΣDDTs, and ΣHCHs. Higher contaminant concentrations were detected in migrating seabirds (South polar skua and brown skua) > sub-Antarctic species (snow petrel) > Antarctic species (penguins) from both the sampling sites, suggesting contamination events at lower latitudes for those birds migrating northward. HCHs showed the lowest concentrations in all species (from 0.03 ± 0.03 ng/g wet wt in SPSK to 1.81 ± 1.23 ng/g wet wt in ADPE from West Antarctica), and PCBs were the most abundant contaminants (from 4.34 ± 2.15 ng/g wet wt. in EMPE to 53.41 ± 19.61 ng/g wet wt. in brown skua). Among pesticides, it is relevant the detection of p,p′-DDT in Adèlie penguin from West Antarctica and in both species of skua; the detection of this pesticide can confirm its actual use in certain malaria-endemic countries from where it is transferred through the long range transport to the polar regions. Contaminants did not show any significant temporal trend during a ten year time span, from 1994/95 to 2004/05, in organisms collected in East Antarctica and they did not indicate any latitudinal gradient along the Ross Sea coasts.     

Harmful and Needless Emission of Refrigerant and Countermeasures

Abstract

Refrigerants used in refrigerators are an important source of ozone depleting substances released into the atmosphere, and can have a significantly negative effect on the hole in the ozone layer. But most emission of refrigerants is man-made, unreasonable and needless. Since in most emission cases the refrigerants are contained in the refrigerators, we can retrieve them by some technique that changes the ‘manual emission’ into manual retrieving. To promote the retrieval action and diminish the pollution, society can use economic, administrative and technical countermeasures, which can create a ‘good-cycle’ both ‘harnessing pollution and earning income simultaneously’, reinforce the motive of retrieving, and retrieve most proportion of refrigerants used by all refrigerators. This ‘good-cycle’ method can be easily promoted, and also a valuable way to promote other forms of environmental protection. The three countermeasures have almost no social cost, even no cost at all.     

Harmful and Needless Emission of Refrigerant and Countermeasures

Refrigerants used in refrigerators are an important source of ozone depleting substances released into the atmosphere, and can have a significantly negative effect on the hole in the ozone layer. But most-emission of refrigerants is man-made, unreasonable and needless. Since in most emission cases the refrigerants are contained in the refrigerators, we can retrieve them by some technique that changes the ＇manual emission＇ into manual retrieving. To promote the retrieval action and diminish the pollution, society can use economic, administrative and technical countermeasures, which can create a ＇good-cycle＇ both ＇harnessing pollution and earning income simultaneously＇, reinforce the motive of retrieving, and retrieve most proportion of refrigerants used by＇all refrigerators. This ＇good-cycle＇ method can be easily promoted, and also a valuable way to promote other forms of environmental protection. The three countermeasures have almost no social cost, even no cost at all.     

Citric and Oxalic Acids Effect on Pb and Zn Uptake by Maize and Winter Wheat

Abstract

A pot experiment was conducted to investigate the influence of citric and oxalic acids effect on Pb and Zn uptake by corn and winter wheat. The experiment was employed with citric acid (CA) applied at 3 rates (0, 1.5 and 3.0 mmol kg^?1 soil), oxalic acid (OA) at 3 rates (0, 1.5 and 3.0mmol kg^?1 soil) and citric acid combined with oxalic acid (1.5 mmol citric acid combined with 1.5 mmol oxalic acid kg^?1). Two types of soil were chose in the experiment. One was collected from the agricultural soil near a battery-recycling factory in Anhui province, China (site A) and the other was collected from a Pb-Zn mine residues in Hunan province, China (site B). The results showed that soil pH varied with the different treatment of citric and oxalic acids. However, there were no differences in all the treatments. 3.0mmol CA kg^?1 soil addition significantly increased the concentrations of the CaCl₂-extractable Pb and Zn and other treatments have no significantly increased. The highest shoot concentrations of Pb and Zn in both species occurred in application of 3.0 mmol CA/kg^?1 soil and shoot concentrations of Pb and Zn in both species were significantly higher than the controls in this treatment. Shoot yields declined with application of citric and oxalic acids, indicating that the plants were sensitive to the toxicity of the metals or the amendments. The highest Pb uptake values by maize and wheat werell2.3 and 77.2 μg pot1 in soil of site A, and occurred with the control and 3.0 mmol CA/kg^?1 soil respectively.     

Omics and biotechnology of arsenic stress and detoxification in plants: Current updates and prospective

Arsenic (As), a naturally occurring metallic element, is a dreadful health hazard to millions of people across the globe. Arsenic is present in low amount in the environment and originates from anthropogenic impact and geogenic sources. The presence of As in groundwater used for irrigation is a worldwide problem as it affects crop productivity, accumulates to different tissues and contaminates food chain. The consumption of As contaminated water or food products leads to several diseases and even death. Recently, studies have been carried out to explore the biochemical and molecular mechanisms which contribute to As toxicity, accumulation, detoxification and tolerance acquisition in plants. This information has led to the development of the biotechnological tools for developing plants with modulated As tolerance and detoxification to safeguard cellular and genetic integrity as well as to minimize food chain contamination. This review aims to provide current updates about the biochemical and molecular networks involved in As uptake by plants and the recent developments in the area of functional genomics in terms of developing As tolerant and low As accumulating plants.