邓楠理事长在中国可持续发展研究会2007年学术年会上的致辞

各位代表、各位来宾： 大家好! 首先，我代表中国可持续发展研究会对参加2007年学术年会的嘉宾、专家与学者表示热烈的欢迎，向多年来支持和致力于研究会工作的各界领导、各位同仁表示衷心的感谢!     

沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究——以上海浦东新区为例

沿海城市在全球发展中具有重要的战略地位，然而特殊的地理位置和高度集中的人口及财富也决定了其面临灾害具有较高的脆弱性，即同等灾害强度下，沿海城市遭遇自然灾害时的人口伤亡更多、经济损失更大。从灾害系统承灾体的角度，分析影响灾害脆弱性的基础设施、城市形态与结构和灾害管理体制等5个方面，顺应脆弱性评价定量化的趋势，依据一定的原则，不分灾种，面对区域和人群，选取代表性指标尝试构建了沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性的评价指标体系，利用AHP法对该区域相应指标的权重进行确定，建立了脆弱性模型，并在收集和标准化数据的基础上，以上海市浦东开发区为例进行了实证分析。结果证明，模拟结果与实际情况基本吻合，可以为沿海城市防灾减灾提供科科学依据，有一定的参考价值。     

Application of optimal harvesting decision model to the analysis of Chinese forestry economic policy

This paper firstly extends the single period forest optimal harvesting decision model to infinite periods,in order to indicate how to determine the optimal rotation period aimed at maximizing forest revenue in all directions when repeat planting and harvesting trees on the same plot of earth till infinite future.The study also analyzes the influence of discounted rates,timber price,harvesting costs,planting costs,and tax on the determination of optimal rotation period;and how the optimal rotation period will change when we introduce the factors of continuously rising timber price and ecological revenue.Secondly,the authors introduce the intergenerational equity principle into the above model to design a resource-exploiting mode which satisfies bom the dynamic efficiency principle and the intergenerational equity principle.Last but not least,the research applies the above model to the analysis of Chinese forestry economic policy and explains the economic theory of institutions such as Government Purchasing Ecological Forest,Tree Compensation,and Forestry Subsidization,which provides a necessary theoretical foundation for future application of these new institutions.Besides,in regard to mis theoretical framework,the authors analyze the necessity of the Natural Forest Protection and Grain for Green projects which are currently being implemented in China.We also point out the emphasis of work to insure the project sustainable and successful.Finally,the research discusses the enterprise’s incentive to over-the-quota harvesting and the government’s means of restricting such behavior,which highlights the fact mat improved supervision and higher penalties are helpful in restricting over-the-quota harvesting.     

用水户参与灌溉管理模式运行机制与绩效实证分析

我国是一个水资源非常短缺的国家。推行用水户参与灌溉管理（SIDD）模式是解决这一难题的重要措施之一。SIDD管理模式运行机制可以从产权制度安排、运营制度安排、激励制度安排、组织制度安排等进行分析，其运行绩效体现在用水机制、管理方式、交易成本降低等方面。结合江苏皂河灌区管理体制改革，分析了SIDD管理模式的运行机制、绩效及存在的问题。为完善这一管理模式．主要的建议是：制订相关的规章制度，使农户广泛参与；建立多元化的投入机制．拓宽资金来源渠道；遵循市场经济运作机制，深化农业水价改革；明确政府职能。加强指导、服务和监管。     

乡村道路收益评估分析

乡村道路建设对于农村的经济发展、降低贫困等具有重要意义,对于如何评价乡村道路收益一直以来都存在着争议。传统的成本-效益分析方法具体来说有消费者剩余方法、生产者剩余方法等,但是由于这些方法都存在共同的缺陷,即不适合衡量交通流量小的地区乡村道路收益,对乡村道路收益的衡量依然存在低估的问题,引起了诸多学者的批评。本文通过构建新的计量经济学方法,利用对湖北农村家庭的实际调查数据,发现乡村道路建设可以有效地节约农村家庭交通成本、提高男性和女性劳动力的农业工资水平、提高学龄儿童的入学率、降低农业和非农业生产投入产品的价格等,对农村家庭具有重要的即时和长期的正向利益影响。     

Responses of food production systems to climate change:sensitivity and vulnerability

Climate warming has prolonged the optimization of crop-growing seasons,shortened actual growth periods,and changed crop-planting boundaries.It also has boosted crop yields in certain regions while compromising crop quality and affected the occurrence of meteorological disasters and pest diseases damage,which has resulted in reduction in grain yield.Crop production systems will evidence more sensitivity to climate change in future;for example,with an increase of 1°C in temperature,the average growth period will be shortened by 17 days for winter wheat and 7-8 days for maize and rice.Of course regional differences will exist.Climate change will threaten crop yield stability and affect crop quality.Vulnerability will be addressed in regard to extreme climatic events,which include reducing exposure and improving adaptive capacity,because the exposure of rain-fed agriculture is greater than that of irrigated agriculture.Therefore,we propose three suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of crop production systems to climate change.First,strengthen the evaluation capacity construction of sensitivity,which includes(1)refining and improving all types of evaluation indicator systems and models;(2)innovating and developing evaluation methods and tools;and(3)combining field observation and case studies,so that(1)the impact of climate change and sensitivity can be assessed scientifically;(2)uncertainty in the study can be identified and reduced;and(3)improved understanding of climate systems and their changes,climate change impact,and sensitivity will be achieved.Second,strengthen adaptive capacity construction for crop production systems,which includes(1)rebuilding existing farmland infrastructure to improve meteorological disaster defences;(2)adjusting agriculture structure and adopting new crop varieties with enhanced resistance;(3)popularizing water-saving technology and dry farming technology;and(4)further researching interdisciplinary theories and methods.Third,strengthen function construction for natural and social s     

Research on the development and planning of renewable energy in Tibet

With the rapid social and economic development of the Tibet Autonomous Region,the situation in regard to energy supply and demand is increasingly tense.Meanwhile,the development of renewable energy in Tibet has been given considerable practical significance by its peculiar ecological environment.Given the complementarity of renewable energies in Tibet,using the method of factor analysis,we derived four major factors:level of economic development,social development,industrial development,and energy endowment,which help to evaluate development conditions in different regions of Tibet.Treating these four factors equally,we used the hierarchical clustering method to determine the order of regional development.Thus we acquire a three-stage planning project for renewable energy.In the first stage,Lhasa plays a leading role in promoting the development of renewable energy,particularly that based on solar and wind energy.There are two phases in the second stage,the first being to simultaneously develop solar and wind energy in Xigaze and Nyingchi.The second is to develop solar and wind energy in accordance with the time of year in Qamdo,Nagqu,and Ali,with 1.145billion kWh electricity to be generated.The third stage is to develop energy production in Lhoka Prefecture,with 1.369billion kWh electricity to be generated.At the end of the three-stage project,consumption of available electricity will have reached 4.045 billion kwh,with major social and economic benefits.     

经济增长下的渤海环境容量预测

据1999，2002—2005年渤海活性磷酸盐、石油类、无机氮的水质监测资料。采用箱式模型。估算渤海及各分区现状下及不同经济增长率下的环境容量预测值。估算结果显示．分污染物来看，各年份均是无机氮较大，石油类次之．活性磷酸盐较小；分区域来看。各年份各污染物均是渤海中部较大，辽东湾、渤海湾次之，莱州湾最小；从时间变化来看。除活性磷酸盐外。石油类和无机氯自2002年到2004年逐年减小。假设渤海污染物排入量随着经济增长每年增加5％。以达到环境容量极限值需要的年数来看。自2005年。分别在7年、4年、17年后渤海的石油类、活性磷酸盐、无机氮将达不到一类水质标准，50年、19年、37年后超过四类水质下环境容量极限值；假设随着经济增长污染物排海量每年增长10％，那么自2005年起。29年、13年和22年后三种污染物将超过四类水质下环境容量极限值。     

不同气候保护政策的模拟对比研究

气候变化问题已经成为制约经济发展、影响社会福利的重要因素。如何在经济稳定发展的前提下实行有效的气候保护政策是一个重要的研究课题。以State-Contingent模型和Demeter模型为基础建立一个宏观动态模型。该模型主要包括三个模块：宏观经济模块．气候变化模块．人地关系协调的决策选择模块．以此分析不同气候保护政策对经济的影响。模型在考虑了增汇、技术进步等因素的基础上．针对生产型、增汇型、能源替代型三种气候保护政策作了模拟情景分析。通过模拟计算得到在不实施任何气候保护政策下中国历年的CO2排放和GDP、效用等结果，然后与实施不同气候保护政策所得结果进行比较。研究发现在实行单一气候保护政策时。增汇型政策和能源替代型政策远优于生产型替代政策；而混合型政策要优于任何单一政策。     

Traceability,quality assurance,and standards

The development of traceability in low-level radioactivity measurements is discussed. The role that the development of large quantities of natural matrix standards can play is also discussed.     

Aerobiological,ecological, and health linkages

Aerobiology is an interdisciplinary science representing the presence and movement of biological particles in the earth's atmosphere. As an important component of air quality, the impact of these particles on human populations and agriculture were discussed in terms of the ecology of the landscape targets involved. The role of aerobiology in air quality studies was considered.     

Aquatic arsenic: Toxicity,speciation, transformations,and remediation

This paper reviews the current knowledge on the toxicity, speciation and biogeochemistry of arsenic in aquatic environmental systems. The toxicity of arsenic is highly dependent on the chemical speciation. The effects of pH, E_h, adsorbing surfaces, biological mediation, organic matter, and key inorganic substances such as sulfide and phosphate combine in a complex and interwoven dynamic fashion to produce unique assemblages of arsenic species. The number of different arsenic species found in environmental samples and an understanding of the transformations between arsenic species has increased over the past few decades as a result of new and refined analytical methods. Changes in arsenic speciation and in total arsenic content of foods upon processing have suggested possible risks associated with processed and unprocessed food. Arsenic removal from water using adsorbents, chemical oxidation, photolysis and photocatalytic oxidation techniques is also reviewed.     

Blood cadmium,mercury, and lead in children: An international comparison of cities in six European countries,and China,Ecuador, and Morocco

Children's blood-lead concentration (B-Pb) is well studied, but little is known about cadmium (B-Cd) and mercury (B-Hg), in particular for central Europe. Such information is necessary for risk assessment and management. Therefore, we here describe and compare B-Pb, B-Cd and B-Hg in children in six European, and three non-European cities, and identify determinants of these exposures. About 50 school children (7–14 years) from each city were recruited (totally 433) in 2007–2008. Interview and questionnaire data were obtained. A blood sample was analyzed: only two laboratories with strict quality control were used. The European cities showed only minor differences for B-Cd (geometric means 0.11–0.17 μg/L) and B-Pb (14–20 μg/L), but larger for B-Hg (0.12–0.94 μg/L). Corresponding means for the non-European countries were 0.21–0.26, 32–71, and 0.3–3.2 μg/L, respectively. For B-Cd in European samples, traffic intensity close to home was a statistically significant determinant, for B-Hg fish consumption and amalgam fillings, and for B-Pb sex (boys higher). This study shows that European city children's B-Cd and B-Pb vary only little between countries; B-Hg differs considerably, due to varying tooth restoration practices and fish intake. Traffic intensity seemed to be a determinant for B-Cd. The metal concentrations were low from a risk perspective but the chosen non-European cities showed higher concentrations than the cities in Europe.     

Revision and meta-analysis of selected biosphere parameter values for chlorine, iodine, neptunium, radium, radon and uranium

There is a continual supply of new experimental data that are relevant to the assessment of the potential impacts of nuclear fuel waste disposal. In the biosphere, the traditional assessment models are data intensive, and values are needed for several thousand parameters. This is augmented further when measures of central tendency, statistical dispersion, correlations and truncations are required for each parameter to allow probabilistic risk assessment. Recent reviews proposed values for 10-15 key element-specific parameters relevant to (36)Cl, (129)I, (222)Rn, (226)Ra, (237)Np and (238)U, and some highlights from this data update are summarized here. Several parameters for Np are revised downward by more than 10-fold, as is the fish/water concentration ratio for U. Soil solid/liquid partition coefficients, Kd, are revised downward by 10-770-fold for Ra. Specific parameters are discussed in detail, including degassing of I from soil; sorption of Cl in soil; categorization of plant/soil concentration ratios for U, Ra and Np; Rn transfer from soil to indoor air; Rn degassing from surface water; and the Ca dependence of Ra transfers.     

Population,development,and environment in India

High population growth and continued economic development have caused serious environmental damage in the Asia Pacific region.However,the recent experience is that the pace of environmental degradation is faster in developing countries than in developed countries.To this end,the study seeks to assess the impact of population pressure on India’s environment,with particular reference to the degradation of natural endowments like land and water resources and the resultant environmental pollution in the six regions of India.The rapid economic growth and expansion of infrastructure development in recent decades have not come without serious environmental consequences particularly in the southern,northern,and western regions.But in the eastern,north-eastern,and central regions of the country,environmental damage has been mainly due to rapid population growth.     

Science, Research, Knowledge and Capacity Building

A small part of the scientific community is seeking hard to enhance the contribution of science, knowledge and capacity building to environmentally sustainable and socially fair human development around the world. Many researchers over the globe share the same commitment – anchored in concerns for the human condition. They believe that science and research can and have influenced sustainability. Therefore their main goals are to seek and build up knowledge, know-how and capacity that might help to feed, nurture, house, educate and employ the world's growing human population while conserving its basic life support systems and biodiversity. They undertake projects, that are essentially integrative, and they try to connect the natural, social and engineering sciences, environment and development of communities, multiple stakeholders, geographic and temporal scales. More generally, scientists engaged in sustainable development are bridging the worlds of knowledge and action. This pro-active, heavily ethics- and wisdom-based "science for sustainability" can be seen as the conclusion of all dialogues and discussions amongst scientists at the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) 2002 in Johannesburg. The "Plan of Implementation" after WSSD will be based on political will, practical steps and partnerships with time-bound actions. Several "means of implementation" are going to be proofed and initiated: finance, trade, transfer of environmentally sound technology, and, last but not least, science and capacity building.Some characteristics of working scientific sustainability initiatives are that they are regional, place-based and solution-oriented. They are focusing at intermediate scales where multiple stresses intersect, where complexity is manageable, where integration is possible, where innovation happens, and where significant transitions toward sustainability can start bottom-up. And they have a fundamental character, addressing the unity of the nature – society system, asking how that interactive system is evolving and how it can be consciously, if imperfectly, steered through the reflective mobilization and application of appropriate knowledge and know-how. The aims of such sustainability-building initiatives conducted by researchers are: first to make significant progress toward expanding and deepening the research agenda of science and knowledge-building for sustainability; secondly to strengthen the infrastructure and capacity for conducting and applying science, research and technology for sustainability – everywhere in the world where it is needed; and thirdly, to connect science, policy and decision-making more effectively in pursuit of a faster transition towards real sustainable development. The overall characteristic is, that sustainability initiatives are mainly open-ended networks and dialogues for the better future. A world society that tries to turn towards sustainable development has to work hard to refine their clumsy technologies, in "earthing" their responsibility to all creatures and resources, in establishing democratic systems in peace and by heeding human rights, in building up global solidarity through all mankind and in commit themselves to a better life for the next generations.     

Radioecology, radiobiology, and radiological protection: frameworks and fractures

A framework for the protection of the general public has been in existence for a very long time, although steps have recently been made by the ICRP to ensure that it is more fully comprehensive with regard to all actual and potential exposure situations. Protection of the environment, however, has only recently begun to be addressed in a structured manner, and is still an evolving subject. Nevertheless, it needs to be centred around some form of parallel framework to that which has evolved for the protection of human beings, although clearly on a different scale. It also needs to be embedded within the basic science of radiobiology, and form a central part of radioecology.