Prediction of ozone concentrations in Oporto city with statistical approaches

The performance of three statistical methods: time-series, multiple linear regression and feedforward artificial neural networks models were compared to predict the daily mean ozone concentrations. The study here reported was based on data from one urban site with traffic influences and one rural background site. The studies were performed for the year 2002 and the respective four trimesters separately. In the multiple linear regression and feedforward artificial neural network models, the concentrations of ozone, the concentrations of its precursors (nitrogen oxides) and some meteorological variables for one and two days before the prediction day were used as predictors. For the application of these models in the validation step, the inputs of ozone concentration for one and two days before were replaced by the ozone concentrations predicted by the models. The results showed that time-series modelling was not profitable. In the development step, similar performances were obtained with multiple linear regression and feedforward artificial neural network. Better performance indexes were achieved with feedforward artificial neural network models in validation step. Concluding, feedforward artificial neural network models were more efficient to predict ozone concentrations.     

Cytological observations on spruce needles after prolonged treatment with ozone and acid mist

Light and electron microscopic studies of four clones of 5-year-old Picea abies trees subjected to ozone and acid mist treatment showed, that: (1) Clones respond differently to the treatment, with clone 14 the most sensitive clone. (2) Main effects were observed in the mesophyll; the vascular strand showed minor cellular changes. (3) Needle shape and ratio of intercellular area to cross section was clone- age-dependent, with a clear increase in intercellular space associated with the treatment (clone 14 and 11 only). (4) Accumulation of tannins in vacuoles was clone-specific. (5) Strong starch formation was found in all samples; in clones 14 and 133 this formation was enhanced by the treatment in older needles, if number of starch grains per cell was calculated. (6) The accumulation of plastoglobules in plastids depended on clone and age, with the older needles containing more globules. In clones 11 and 133, the treatment led to an increase in the number of plastoglobules. (7) Grana stacking in all clones and both needle ages subjected to ozone and acid mist was significantly reduced. The observed changes in the ultrastructure of needle tissue are comparable to those found in field investigations with similar conditions, or phytotron studies evaluating pollution effects on spruce trees.     

Artificial neural network-derived trends in daily maximum surface ozone concentrations

Interannual variability in meteorological conditions can confound attempts to identify changes in ozone concentrations driven by reduced precursor emissions. In this paper, a technique is described that attempts to maximize the removal of meteorological variability from a daily maximum ozone time series, thereby revealing longer term changes in ozone concentrations with increased confidence. The technique employs artificial neural network [multilayer perceptron (MLP)] models, and is shown to remove more of the meteorological variability from U.S. ozone data than does a Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter and conventional regression-based technique.     

Surface structures and epicuticular wax composition of spruce needles after long-term treatment with ozone and acid mist

Epicuticular wax structures and epicuticular wax composition were studied in needles of Picea abies (L.) Karst. plants after a long-term fumigation experiment. SEM observations showed aggregated as well as undamaged waxes without any relation to treatments. The chemical wax analysis revealed clone specific differences, but only one compound, the nonacosan-10-ol (C(29)-ol), was found enriched in ozone/acid mist treatments.     

Deriving ozone dose-response of photosynthesis in adult forest trees from branch-level cuvette gas exchange assessment

Branch-level gas exchange provided the basis for assessing ozone flux in order to derive the dose-response relationship between cumulative O3 uptake (COU) and carbon gain in the upper sun crown of adult Fagus sylvatica. Fluxes of ozone, CO2 and water vapour were monitored simultaneously by climatized branch cuvettes. The cuvettes allowed branch exposure to an ambient or twice-ambient O3 regime, while tree crowns were exposed to the same O3 regimes (twice-ambient generated by a free-air canopy O3 exposure system). COU levels higher than 20mmolm(-2) led to a pronounced decline in carbon gain under elevated O3. The limiting COU range is consistent with findings on neighbouring branches exposed to twice-ambient O3 through free-air fumigation. The cuvette approach allows to estimate O3 flux at peripheral crown positions, where boundary layers are low, yielding a meso-scale within-crown resolution of photosynthetic foliage sensitivity under whole-tree free-air O3 fumigation.     

Elevated CO2 response of photosynthesis depends on ozone concentration in aspen

The effect of elevated CO₂ and O₃ on apparent quantum yield (?), maximum photosynthesis (P_max), carboxylation efficiency (V_cmax) and electron transport capacity (J_max) at different canopy locations was studied in two aspen (Populus tremuloides) clones of contrasting O₃ tolerance. Local light climate at every leaf was characterized as fraction of above-canopy photosynthetic photon flux density (%PPFD). Elevated CO₂ alone did not affect ? or P_max, and increased J_max in the O₃-sensitive, but not in the O₃-tolerant clone. Elevated O₃ decreased leaf chlorophyll content and all photosynthetic parameters, particularly in the lower canopy, and the negative impact of O₃ increased through time. Significant interaction effect, whereby the negative impact of elevated O₃ was exaggerated by elevated CO₂ was seen in Chl, N and J_max, and occurred in both O₃-tolerant and O₃-sensitive clones. The clonal differences in the level of CO₂ × O₃ interaction suggest a relationship between photosynthetic acclimation and background O₃ concentration.     

Understanding the effectiveness of precursor reductions in lowering 8-hr ozone concentrations

Analyses of ambient measured ozone data were used in conjunction with the application of photochemical modeling to determine the technical feasibility of attaining the federal 8-hr ozone standard in central California. Various combinations of volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emission reductions were effective in lowering modeled peak 1-hr ozone concentrations. However, VOC emissions reductions were found to have only a modest impact on modeled peak 8-hr ozone concentrations. NOx emission reductions generally lowered 8-hr ozone concentrations, but their effectiveness was partially or, in some cases, wholly offset by the increase in the number of NO cycles and, hence, in the ozone produced per NO. As a result, substantial NOx emission reductions--70 to 90%--were required to reduce peak 8-hr ozone concentrations to the level of the standard throughout the modeling domain. These modeling results provide a possible physical explanation for recent analyses that have reported more prominent trends in peak 1-hr ozone levels than in peak 8-hr ozone concentrations or in occurrences of mid-level (60-90 parts per billion by volume) ozone concentrations. The findings also have serious implications for the feasibility of attaining the 8-hr ozone standard in central California. Further efforts are needed to clarify the applicability of the modeling results to the full set of days with ozone levels exceeding the 8-hr ozone standard, as well as their applicability to other geographical areas.     

Preliminary background ozone concentrations in the mountain and coastal areas of Bulgaria

Urban and non-urban rural ozone (O3) concentrations are high in Bulgaria and often exceed the European AOT40 ecosystem as well as the AOT60 human health standards. This paper presents preliminary estimates to establish background, non-urban O3 concentrations for the southern region of Bulgaria. Ozone concentrations from three distinctly different sites are presented: a mountain site influenced by mountain-valley wind flow; a coastal site influenced by sea-breeze wind flow; and a 1700-m mountain peak site without 'local' wind flow characteristics. The latter offers the best estimate of 46-50 ppb for a background O3 level. The highest non-urban hourly value, 118 ppb, was measured at the mountain-valley site.     

Measures of ozone concentrations using passive sampling in forests of South Western Europe

Ambient ozone concentrations were measured with passive samplers in the framework of the EU and UN/ECE Level II forest monitoring programme. Data from France, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain and Switzerland are reported for 2000-2002, covering the period from April to September. The number of plots increased from 67 in 2000 to 83 in 2002. The year 2001 experienced the highest ozone concentrations, reflecting more stable summer meteorological conditions. Average 6-month ozone concentrations above 45 ppb were measured this year in 40.3% of the plots, in contrast with the less than 21% measured in the other 2 years. Gradients of increasing ozone levels were observed from North to South and with altitude. Comments are made on the regional trends and on the time frame of the higher ozone episodes. Also, some recommendations enabling a better comparison between plots are provided.     

The effect of reciprocal treatments with ozone and ultraviolet-B radiation on photosynthesis and growth of perennial grass Elymus athericus

The impact on plant growth of the simultaneously changing factors of the global climate, rising tropospheric O3 concentrations and increasing UV-B radiation fluxes, has been tested in a combined glasshouse and growth chamber experiment. The saltmarsh grass species Elymus athericus was sequentially fumigated for two weeks with O3 and for another two weeks irradiated with UV-B (vv). Exposure to elevated UV-B did not negatively affect photosynthesis or plant growth. Fumigation with O3 had a depressing effect on net photosynthesis, the number and biomass of flowers, the number of leaves and the number of shoots. O3-induced damage only was observed in plants which had been fumigated during the last two weeks of the experiment. Since interactive responses were not observed, results suggest different primary target sites for O3 and UV-B within the plant.     

Forecasting daily maximum surface ozone concentrations in Brunei Darussalam--an ARIMA modeling approach

A time series approach using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling has been used in this study to obtain maximum daily surface ozone (O3) concentration forecasts. The order of the fitted ARIMA model is found to be (1,0,1) for the surface O3 data collected at the airport in Brunei Darussalam during the period July 1998-March 1999. The model forecasts of one-day-ahead maximum O3 concentrations have been found to be reasonably close to the observed concentrations. The model performance has been evaluated on the basis of certain commonly used statistical measures. The overall model performance is found to be quite satisfactory as indicated by the values of Fractional Bias, Normalized Mean Square Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error as 0.025, 0.02, and 13.14% respectively.     

Assessing the impacts of current and future concentrations of surface ozone on crop yield with meta-analysis

Meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively assess the effects of rising ozone concentrations ([O₃]) on yield and yield components of major food crops: potato, barley, wheat, rice, bean and soybean in 406 experimental observations. Yield loss of the crops under current and future [O₃] was expressed relative to the yield under base [O₃] (≤26 ppb). With potato, current [O₃] (31–50 ppb) reduced the yield by 5.3%, and it reduced the yield of barley, wheat and rice by 8.9%, 9.7% and 17.5%, respectively. In bean and soybean, the yield losses were 19.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Compared with yield loss at current [O₃], future [O₃] (51–75 ppb) drove a further 10% loss in yield of soybean, wheat and rice, and 20% loss in bean. Mass of individual grain, seed, or tuber was often the major cause of the yield loss at current and future [O₃], whereas other yield components also contributed to the yield loss in some cases. No significant difference was found between the responses in crops grown in pots and those in the ground for any yield parameters. The ameliorating effect of elevated [CO₂] was significant in the yields of wheat and potato, and the individual grain weight in wheat exposed to future [O₃]. These findings confirm the rising [O₃] as a threat to food security for the growing global population in this century.     

Transformation products and reaction kinetics of fragrances in advanced wastewater treatment with ozone

The reaction of the fragrance compounds 4,6,6,7,8,8-hexamethyl-1,3,4,7-tetrahydrocyclopenta[g]isochromene (HHCB), 1-(3,5,5,6,8,8-hexamethyl-6,7-dihydronaphthalen-2-yl)ethanone (AHTN), 1-tert-butyl-3,5-dimethyl-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (musk xylene/MX), 1-(4-tert-butyl-2,6-dimethyl-3,5-dinitrophenyl)ethanone (musk ketone/MK), and 1-(2,3,8,8-tetramethyl-1,3,4,5,6,7-hexahydronaphthalen-2-yl)ethanone (OTNE) with ozone in tap water as well as waste water treatment plant (WWTP) effluents is described. Several transformation products are characterized by means of gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. One transformation product (HHCB-Lactone) was confirmed by means of a true standard. Musk xylene and musk ketone do not react with ozone under the conditions used in this study. AHTN and HHCB reacted slowly to a multitude of transformation products, while OTNE reacted quickly to several stable transformation products. The reaction constants and half lives are used to predict removal efficiencies for full scale reactors.     

Comparison of modelled and measured ozone concentrations and meteorology for a site in south-west Sweden: implications for ozone uptake calculations

Measurements of ground-level ozone concentrations and meteorology (temperature, vapour pressure deficit (VPD), solar radiation) at the monitoring site Ostad (south-west Sweden) were compared to data from the corresponding grid in the EMEP photo-oxidant model for 1997, 1999 and 2000. The influence of synoptic weather on the agreement between model and measurements was studied. Implications of differences between modelled and observed inputs for ozone flux calculations for wheat and potato were investigated. The EMEP model output of ozone, temperature and VPD correlated well with measurements during daytime. Deviations were larger during the night, especially in calm conditions, attributed to local climatological conditions at the monitoring site deviating from average conditions of the grid. These differences did not lead to significant differences in calculated ozone uptake, which was reproduced remarkably well. The uptake calculations were sensitive to errors in the ozone and temperature input data, especially when including a flux threshold.     

Recovery of the histogram of hourly ozone distribution from weekly average concentrations

A simple method is presented for estimating hourly distribution of air pollutants, based on data collected by passive sensors on a weekly or bi-weekly basis with no need for previous measurements at a site. In order for this method to be applied to locations where no hourly records are available, reference data from other sites are required to generate calibration histograms. The proposed procedure allows one to obtain the histogram of hourly ozone values during a given week with an error of about 30%, which is good considering the simplicity of this approach. This method can be a valuable tool for sites that lack previous hourly records of pollutant ambient concentrations, where it can be used to verify compliance with regulations or to estimate the AOT40 index with an acceptable degree of exactitude.     

On the local and regional influence on ground-level ozone concentrations in Hong Kong

Hong Kong is a densely populated city situated in the fast developing Pearl River Delta of southern China. In this study, the recent data on ozone (O3) and related air pollutants obtained at three sites in Hong Kong are analyzed to show the variations of O3 in urban, sub-urban and rural areas and the possible regional influences. Highest monthly averaged O3 was found at a northeastern rural site and lowest O3 level was observed at an urban site. The levels of NOx, CO, SO2 and PM10 showed a different spatial pattern with the highest level in the urban site and lowest at the rural site. Analysis of chemical species ratios such as SO2/NOx and CO/NOx indicated that the sites were under the influences of local and regional emissions to varying extents reflecting the characteristics of emission sources surround the respective sites. Seasonal pattern of O3 is examined. Low O3 level was found in summer and elevated levels occurred in autumn and spring. The latter appears different from the previous result obtained in 1996 indicating a single maximum occurring in autumn. Principal component analysis was used to further elucidate the relationships of air pollutants at each site. As expected, the O3 variation in the northeastern rural area was largely determined by regional chemical and transport processes, while the O3 variability at the southwestern suburban and urban sites were more influenced by local emissions. Despite the large difference in O3 levels across the sites, total potential ozone (O3+NO2) showed little variability. Cases of high O3 episodes were presented and elevated O3 levels were formed under the influence of tropical cyclone bringing in conditions of intense sunlight, high temperature and light winds. Elevated O3 levels were also found to correlate with enhanced ratio of SO2 to NOx, suggesting influence of regional emissions from the adjacent Pearl River Delta region.     

Radial diffusive sampler for the determination of 8-h ambient ozone concentrations

The 8-h ozone radial diffusive sampler was evaluated according to the CEN protocol for the validation of diffusive samplers. All the parameters regarding the sampler characteristics were found to be consistent with the requirements of this protocol apart from the blank value, which must be evaluated and subtracted at each sampling. The nominal uptake rate was determined in laboratory conditions. However, the uptake rate depends on the mass uptake, temperature, humidity and on the combination of temperature and humidity. Based on laboratory experiments, an empirical model has been established which improved the agreement between the radial sampler and the reference method. This improvement was observed under several different meteorological and emission conditions of sampling. By using the model equation of uptake rate, the data quality objective of 30% for the expanded uncertainty included in the O(3) European Directive, is easily attained. Therefore, the sampler represents an appropriate indicative method.     

Nonlinear dynamical analysis of ground level ozone concentrations at different temporal scales

The nonlinear dynamical analysis of ground level ozone concentration is carried out by using correlation integral method to examine its scale invariance property. The dynamics of the time series is often studied at one temporal scale. It is assumed that if the time series is determined to be chaotic at one temporal scale, its behavior at another scale can be determined as the scale shifts are allowed due to scale invariance property. The actual dynamics at other scales is however not yet analyzed. The assumption of scale invariance of the time series at different time scales is tested in this study. The analysis is carried out for ground ozone levels observed during 2006 at two sites of different land use characteristics, as traffic and mixed-use in Delhi at four temporal scales as 1 h, 4 h, 8 h and 24 h. The chaotic nature is observed for the ozone concentration with 1 h and 4 h frequency, whereas at 8 h and 24 h time scale, the ozone concentration shows random behavior. As expected, a decrease in the variability is observed in the ozone levels with increase in the scales from 1 h to 24 h. The results indicated the temporal scale shifts are allowed from 1 h to 4 h resolution and vice versa. The ozone time series at 8 h and 24 h scalings however, should be dealt separately. Further analysis for corresponding NO₂ concentration at two sites suggested finite d₂ for 1 h, 4 h and 8 h scalings with higher value at traffic site than that at mixed-use site. The analysis also indicated same degrees of freedom for ozone and NO₂ concentration at traffic site whereas at mixed-use site the number of variables governing the NO₂ pollution are less than the ozone concentration.     

Ozone uptake by citrus trees exposed to a range of ozone concentrations

The Citrus genus includes a large number of species and varieties widely cultivated in the Central Valley of California and in many other countries having similar Mediterranean climates. In the summer, orchards in California experience high levels of tropospheric ozone, formed by reactions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) with oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). Citrus trees may improve air quality in the orchard environment by taking up ozone through stomatal and non-stomatal mechanisms, but they may ultimately be detrimental to regional air quality by emitting biogenic VOC (BVOC) that oxidize to form ozone and secondary organic aerosol downwind of the site of emission. BVOC also play a key role in removing ozone through gas-phase chemical reactions in the intercellular spaces of the leaves and in ambient air outside the plants. Ozone is known to oxidize leaf tissues after entering stomata, resulting in decreased carbon assimilation and crop yield. To characterize ozone deposition and BVOC emissions for lemon (Citrus limon), mandarin (Citrus reticulata), and orange (Citrus sinensis), we designed branch enclosures that allowed direct measurement of fluxes under different physiological conditions in a controlled greenhouse environment. Average ozone uptake was up to 11 nmol s^?1 m^?2 of leaf. At low concentrations of ozone (40 ppb), measured ozone deposition was higher than expected ozone deposition modeled on the basis of stomatal aperture and ozone concentration. Our results were in better agreement with modeled values when we included non-stomatal ozone loss by reaction with gas-phase BVOC emitted from the citrus plants. At high ozone concentrations (160 ppb), the measured ozone deposition was lower than modeled, and we speculate that this indicates ozone accumulation in the leaf mesophyll.