Identifying common features among household consumption patterns optimized to minimize specific environmental burdens

This study seeks to find common features in a set of simulated Japanese household consumption patterns, each of which was optimized to reduce a particular type of environmental burden. To this end an input–output system comprising some 500 commodity and fixed capital formation sectors was formulated that relates Japanese household consumption of these commodities to the generation of 13 types of environmental burden, clustered in 6 key problem areas. Based on this system a linear programming model was developed and was used to compute a set of 13 household consumption patterns optimized for minimizing each of the environmental burdens in turn. Each of these singly optimized patterns was then characterized as to how it impacts on the magnitude of the other 12 environmental burdens. By examining the commonalties and differences among these optimal patterns, we then classified consumer commodities into 3 types, providing a simple indicator with which to steer towards consumption patterns with less environmental impact than today's.     

A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO₂ emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO₂ emission pathways.     

基于投入产出法的北京能源消耗温室气体排放清单分析

城市是一个巨大能源物资消耗体和温室气体排放体,相关研究受到广泛关注.本文以2007年为例基于投入产出法研究北京市能源消耗的温室气体排放量,计算得出CH4和N2O这两种常规温室气体排放量.结果表明,北京市2007年能源消耗温室气体排放量为3531.72万tCO2当量,其中CO2排放量为3514.40万t,CH4排放量为1734.32t,N2O排放量为435.83t.北京市工业部门仍然是主要的温室气体排放部门,其排放的温室气体占CO2总量的98.96%,CH4总量的88.48%和N2O总量的98.99%.不同最终使用部门中,政府部门消费产生的温室气体排放量超过总量的15%,高于城镇消费和农村消费之和;调出和出口部门的碳排放量超过总量的40%,所占比例最大.贸易中,隐含在调出和出口部门中温室气体排放量是隐含在调入和进口部门的十几倍.北京市不同行业的温室气体排放强度略优于全国水平.降低北京市温室气体排放量可从进一步优化产业结构,发挥科技减排的作用,提高不同产业的能源利用率等方面采取措施.     

广东省CO2排放变化的社会经济影响因素

作为我国经济最为发达的省份之一,广东省社会经济可持续发展面临CO₂排放量增长的挑战.从多角度分析广东省CO₂排放变化的社会经济影响因素,有助于其实现低碳发展.基于投入产出模型,从生产、需求和供应角度分析1987—2015年广东省CO₂排放量的变化;此外,采用结构分解分析方法,从需求和供应角度量化广东省各种社会经济因素对CO₂排放变化的相对贡献.结果表明:①与生产端相比,需求侧和供给侧的研究有助于识别不同的关键行业,如建筑业（需求侧）、金融和保险业（供给侧）.②降低碳排放强度是减少广东省CO₂排放的主要因素,而人均最终需求水平和人均初始投入增加是推动广东省CO₂排放增加的主要因素.③生产结构、最终需求结构和初始投入结构变化导致CO₂排放量略有增加,表明广东省具有较大的通过调整结构性因素减排CO₂的潜力.综上,建议除了生产端CO₂减排措施外,广东省还应采取需求侧和供给侧相关措施,如优化消费行为、产品分配行为和初始投入结构等.      

基于多区域投入产出(MRIO)的中国区域居民消费碳足迹分析

近年来,居民消费活动和环境的关系逐渐受到关注,而与温室气体排放相关的研究更是其中的热点.因此,本文采用“居民消费碳足迹”概念来定义特定居民消费活动所导致的直接和间接温室气体排放的总和,主要包括CO2、CH4、N2O3种温室气体;构建了基于环境扩展的多区域投入产出(Multiregional input-output,MRIO)模型的碳足迹核算方法,并以2007年中国8个区域为例对其居民消费碳足迹的数量、构成、分布及转移进行了分析.结果显示,2007年全国居民消费碳足迹总量达到31.74亿t(以CO2当量计).此外,碳足迹还呈现出区域差异明显、间接排放大于直接排放、城乡差距过大等特征.人均碳足迹方面,发展水平较高的京津、东部沿海地区明显高于相对滞后的西北、西南区域.研究还对碳足迹的区域分布和转移进行了深入探讨.结果发现,东北、京津、西北和西南区域转移收支为负,表示这些区域为其他区域承担的排放大于其他区域为其承担的排放;剩余的北部沿海、东部沿海、南部沿海和中部区域情况则正好相反.这些结果对现阶段中国制定具体区域消费政策或分配碳减排责任等具有参考价值;本研究的方法论也适用于研究其他环境因子及足迹因子与居民消费的关系.     

2005~2015年间中国省域物质资源消耗的解耦状态分析

基于修正的原生资源消耗当量的估算结果和解耦指数，本文对2005~2015年间中国各省区市经济增长对物质资源投入的依赖度进行了测度和影响因素分解，并比较了其与相关资源环境压力指标解耦状态在时间趋势和空间格局等方面的异同.结果表明：2005~2015年中国大多数省区市物质资源消耗达到弱解耦，且"十二五"时期其解耦水平较"十一五"有显著提升.同时物质资源的解耦水平普遍低于水资源消耗、CO₂、SO₂和废水排放等4项指标的解耦水平，好于固废排放，建议政策制定者考虑使用更严格和更综合的政策工具来全面改善物质资源管理，提高资源效率.     

汽油车技术发展对尾气排放影响研究进展

近年来,汽油车尾气排放已成为城市大气污染的主要来源之一.为减少油耗、温室气体和大气污染物的排放,汽油直喷技术(GDI)、醇类燃料替代以及混合动力系统等新兴技术被应用到汽车产品中,该研究对GDI发动机汽车、醇类燃料车和混合动力车的颗粒物(PM)、氮氧化物(NO_x)、总碳氢化合物(THC)的排放研究进行梳理和总结,综合评估先进动力技术和醇类燃料的环境影响.结果表明:GDI汽油车的PM排放因子为进气道喷射(PFI)汽油车的1.2~5倍,加装汽油颗粒物捕集器(GPF)后GDI汽油车的PM排放大幅下降,同时具备催化能力的GPF可减少NO_x和THC排放.与汽油车相比,乙醇燃料车PM排放量减少了35%~56%,尾气THC排放减少了10%~44%,但挥发性有机物(VOCs)蒸发排放增加了20%~41%,其主要来自于日呼吸损失.各类型车辆的NO_x排放差异较小,比较结果存在一定的不确定性.混合动力车相比传统内燃机汽车污染物减排优势明显,可积极推广其在公共交通和私家车队中的应用.建议今后研究应着重关注以下几个方面:①GDI和混合动力车在实际条件下排放污染物的环境影响;②醇类燃料车VOCs蒸发排放控制技术及相关法规标准的完善;③新兴技术汽油车排放污染物的生成机理及其影响因素.      

Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China

China＇s increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution,but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China＇s primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China＇s transition to low-carbon development,three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO2 emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System（LEAP） model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product（GDP） growth rate of 6.45%,total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%,48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual（BaU）,Carbon Reduction（CR）and Integrated Low Carbon Economy（ILCE） scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO2 emissions will increase from 6.7 billion tons in 2009 to 9.5,11,11.6 and11.2 billion tons; 8.2,9.2,9.6 and 9 billion tons; 7.1,7.4,7.2 and 6.4 billion tons in 2020,2030,2040 and 2050 under the BaU,CR and ILCE scenarios,respectively. Total CO2 emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050,compared with the BaU scenario.To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions,China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency,optimization of energy structure,deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation.     

Life cycle assessment of spray dried soluble coffee and comparison with alternatives (drip filter and capsule espresso)

This paper aims to evaluate the environmental burdens associated with spray dried soluble coffee over its entire life cycle and compare it with drip filter coffee and capsule espresso coffee. It particularly aims to identify critical environmental issues and responsibilities along the whole life cycle chain of spray dried coffee. This life cycle assessment (LCA) specifically uses foreground data obtained directly from coffee manufacturers and suppliers. Aside from energy consumption and greenhouse gases emissions, water footprint is also studied in detail, including regionalization of water impacts based on the ecological scarcity method 2006. Other impact categories are screened using the IMPACT 2002+ impact assessment method.The overall LCA results for a 1 dl cup of spray dried soluble coffee amounts approximately to 1 MJ of primary non-renewable energy consumption, to emissions of 0.07 kg of CO_2-eq, and between 3 and 10 l of non-turbined water use, depending on whether or not the coffee cultivation is irrigated and wet treated. When considering turbined water, use can be up to 400 l of water per cup. Pouch – and to a lesser extent metal can packaging alternatives – show lower environmental burdens than glass or sticks.On average, about one half of the environmental footprint occurs at a life cycle stage under the control of the coffee producer or its suppliers (i.e., during cultivation, treatment, processing, packaging up to distribution, along with advertising) and the other half at a stage controlled by the user (shopping, appliances manufacturing, use and waste disposal). Key environmental parameters of spray dried soluble coffee are the amount of extra water boiled and the efficiency of cup cleaning during use phase, whether the coffee is irrigated or not, as well as the type and amount of fertilizer used in the coffee field. The packaging contributes to 10% of the overall life cycle impacts.Compared to other coffee alternatives, spray dried soluble coffee uses less energy and has a lower environmental footprint than capsule espresso coffee or drip filter coffee, the latter having the highest environmental impacts on a per cup basis. This study shows that a broad LCA approach is needed to help industry to minimize the environmental burdens directly related to their products. Including all processes of the entire system is necessary i) to get a comprehensive environmental footprint of the product system with respect to sustainable production and consumption, ii) to share stakeholders responsibility along the entire product life cycle, and iii) to avoid problem shifting between different life cycle stages.     

湖北省畜禽粪便温室气体减排潜力分析

畜禽粪便是农业温室气体的重要排放源.合理的粪便管理方式可有效降低温室气体排放,同时减少环境污染.为明确不同养殖模式下适宜的粪便管理方式对温室气体减排的有效性,以湖北省为案例地,针对不同畜禽的粪便特征、区域自然条件和畜禽养殖模式等,筛选适宜的粪便管理方式;运用政府间气候变化专门委员会提出的畜禽粪便温室气体排放因子测算模型,在优化管理方式的基础上进行排放因子预测,估算由粪便管理方式改进所带来的减排潜力.结果表明,粪便管理经优化后畜禽粪便温室气体排放减少1.98~357.82 kg·头-1·a-1(以CO2当量计).根据养殖规模发展趋势预测,至2020年全省畜禽粪便优化管理所带来的减排潜力可达322.78万t(以CO2当量计).不同地区间减排效果则与当地养殖规模、养殖结构、养殖模式及适宜的畜禽粪便管理方式密切相关;畜禽种类间粪便特性的不同是其CH4和N2O减排效率迥异的主要原因;规模化养殖粪便管理方式优化是实现区域温室气体减排的重点.结合区域自然条件和畜禽养殖特征等,筛选适宜的粪便管理方式是实现区域温室气体减排的有效措施.     

基于混合生命周期分析的我国海上风电场能耗及温室气体排放研究

随着我国海上风电的快速发展,对其资源环境成本进行系统核算对于全面评价海上风电的节能减排潜力具有重要意义.本研究采用混合生命周期评价方法,对我国第一个海上风电场—上海东海大桥海上风电场(二期)的能耗和温室气体排放进行核算,并将核算结果与典型陆上风电场和其它类型的可再生能源进行比较.结果表明:该海上风电项目全生命周期发电能耗为0.51 MJ·k Wh~(-1),相应的温室气体排放量为26.47g·k Wh~(-1)(以CO_2当量计);在设备制造与运输、建设施工、运行维护、回收处置4个阶段中,设备生产与运输阶段在能耗和温室气体排放的占比最大,分别贡献了能耗的91.23%和温室气体排放量的60.48%;横向比较发现,海上风电场单位发电量的能耗和温室气体排放均高于陆上风电项目,但与光伏、生物质、地热等可再生能源发电项目相比,海上风电项目全生命周期能耗和温室气体排放依然具有一定优势.     

中国食物生产消费系统碳素动态变化及其环境负荷

基于物质流原理,分析了1995~2016年中国食物生产消费系统的变化情况,测算并评价了食物生产消费系统碳素流动变化及食物碳消费导致的碳素环境负荷变化.结果表明：食物农业生产系统中碳汇和碳排总量整体均呈上升趋势,且碳汇增速明显高于碳排增速;食物生产系统碳素环境负荷中畜禽养殖产生的碳素环境负荷呈下降趋势,农用物资、农业活动及食物加工运输相关产生的碳环境负荷呈快速上升趋势.食物消费系统中,居民食物碳消费发生变化,居民碳消费结构从“以粮食碳消费为主”的饮食结构转变为“以粮食、肉类、食用植物油碳消费为主”的多元饮食结构,农村居民人均食物碳消费量由95.24kg/（人×a）降低至71.62kg/（人×a）,城镇居民人均食物碳消费量由52.06kg/（人×a）升至65.16kg/（人×a）.分析食物消费系统碳素环境负荷,进入大气的碳素环境负荷占主体地位,其次是土壤和水体,近年来进入土壤和水体的碳素比例增加.分析表明减少食物生产消费系统碳素环境负荷的措施,包括引导居民优化饮食结构,减少生活污水与厨余垃圾产生量,提高厨余垃圾与粪便还田比例,将系统中产生的废弃物内部循环利用等.     

Life-cycle inventory for hydroelectric generation: a Brazilian case study

Representative Life-Cycle Inventories (LCIs) are essential for Life-Cycle Assessments (LCAs) quality and readiness. Because energy is such an important element of LCAs, appropriate LCIs on energy are crucial, and due to the prevalence of hydropower on Brazilian electricity mix, the frequently used LCIs are not representative of the Brazilian conditions. The present study developed a LCI of the Itaipu Hydropower Plant, the major hydropower plant in the world, responsible for producing 23.8% of Brazil's electricity consumption. Focused on the capital investments to construct and operate the dam, the LCI was designed to serve as a database for the LCAs of Brazilian hydroelectricity production. The life-cycle boundaries encompass the construction and operation of the dam, as well as the life-cycles of the most important material and energy consumptions (cement, steel, copper, diesel oil, lubricant oil), as well as construction site operation, emissions from reservoir flooding, material and workers transportation, and earthworks. As a result, besides the presented inventory, it was possible to determine the following processes, and respective environmental burdens as the most important life-cycle hotspots: reservoir filling (CO₂ and CH₄ emission; land use); steel life-cycle (water and energy consumption; CO, particulates, SO_x and NO_x emissions); cement life-cycle (water and energy consumption; CO₂ and particulate emissions); and operation of civil construction machines (diesel consumption; NO_x emissions). Compared with another hydropower studies, the LCI showed magnitude adequacy, with better results than small hydropower, which reveals a scale economy for material and energy exchanges in the case of Itaipu Power Plant.     

纯电动与柴油货车全生命周期能耗及排放分析

选择传统柴油厢式货车和纯电动厢式货车为研究对象.基于GREET软件,建立适宜于我国国情的车辆全生命周期计算模型,对比分析两款车型全生命周期的能耗、温室气体排放以及标准污染物排放情况;结果表明:纯电动货车全生命周期内的百公里能耗比柴油货车降低了6.57%,化石燃料、天然气、石油的百公里消耗量分别降低14.4%、58.8%、96.8%;纯电动货车CH_4、VOC、CO、NO_x的排放分别比柴油货车低16.7%、14.8%、63.0%和63.4%,而柴油货车的CO_2和SO_x的排放量比纯电动货车低7.2%和96.8%.同时对车辆进行不确定性分析和单因素的敏感性分析发现,纯电动货车全生命周期内CO_2排放量对电能生产阶段的敏感度高达66.9%,而且相较于柴油货车,纯电动货车在全生命周期能耗、一次能源消耗以及主要污染物的排放等方面受车辆寿命的影响较小,在长期运行过程中更能发挥其在节能减排方面的优势.     

基于能源-环境情景模拟的北京市大气污染对居民健康风险评价研究

保护居民健康是北京市能源系统优化管理和大气污染治理的重要目标.本研究基于北京市的社会经济发展目标并结合相关节能减排和环保要求,针对全市2010-2020年间的能源消费分别设计了高、中、低3种约束情景,通过LEAP模型预测了全市至2020年的能源消费量与S02、NOx、PM10和PM2.5等4种主要大气污染物的排放强度,并采用泊松回归模型对3种情景下主城区居民受环境空气中这4种大气污染物的暴露危害所导致的健康风险进行了评估.结果显示:相对低约束情景,高约束情景至2020年可避免与S02、NOx、PM10和PM2.5污染相关的死亡危害分别为2663、6359、4720和4104人·a-1,而且在高约束情景下煤炭消费比重每下降1％,可相应地避免约1400人·a-1的污染急性死亡.由此建议北京市实施更加严格的节能和减排措施,严控煤炭消费总量,进一步优化能源结构,最大程度地降低能源消费导致的大气污染所产生的居民健康风险.     

昆明市食物生产消费碳素动态变化

食物生产消费系统中碳素的梯级流动变化会产生一系列环境影响.基于1990—2013年昆明市食物生产消费变化,测算分析了农业生产的碳汇碳排量、城乡居民食物碳消费动态变化及食物碳消费带来的环境负荷变化.结果表明,食物生产系统中碳汇和碳排总量分别由1990年的705.44 Gg·a~(-1)和496.92 Gg·a~(-1)增长至2013年的1195.53 Gg·a~(-1)和1012.33 Gg·a~(-1),净碳汇水平为正值,但呈下降趋势;城镇居民人均食物碳消费量由61.42 kg·人~(-1)·a~(-1)减少至44.65 kg·人~(-1)·a~(-1),农村居民人均食物碳消费量由87.96 kg·人~(-1)·a~(-1)降至48.78 kg·人~(-1)·a~(-1),食物碳消费总量由336.00 Gg·a~(-1)波动下降到294.53 Gg·a~(-1).畜禽养殖粪便排放和肠道发酵是食物生产过程中的主要碳源,占到60%以上,其次是农用物资投入所产生的碳排放,约占30%,并呈增加态势,其中,化肥是农用物资碳排放的主要影响因素.食物消费造成的碳素环境负荷中,损失进入大气的碳素比例最高,占到80%,其次是土壤,最少的是水体.进入大气的碳素由1990年的270.63 Gg·a~(-1)波动下降至2013年的170.68 Gg·a~(-1),减少了36.93%,但进入土壤和水体的碳素明显增长,其中,厨余垃圾碳量由35.42 Gg·a~(-1)增加至129.84 Gg·a~(-1),增加了266.57%.昆明市作为低碳城市试点,需要采取针对性措施发展低碳农业及低碳消费.     

Resource consumption and emissions from olive oil production: a life cycle inventory case study in Cyprus

“Cradle to gate” life cycle analysis (LCA) has been used to evaluate the consumption of raw materials and emissions of pollutants from olive oil production in Lythrodontas region in Cyprus, in order to identify the processes which give rise to the most significant environmental burdens. The system investigated includes the production of the chemical inputs used (fertilisers and pesticides), agricultural processes, the industrial processing and the transportation and waste management associated with olive oil production. Raw material and energy use as well as emissions were quantified on the basis of a functional unit of 1 l of extra virgin olive oil. The production of the inorganic fertilisers used in the agricultural stage of olive oil production and the disposal of liquid effluent from olive mills to evaporation ponds were found to be “hot-spot” processes not only in terms of resource consumption but also in terms of emissions into the environment.     

我国农村能源政策以及收入水平对农户生活能源需求的影响研究

针对传统能源使用过程中产生的环境、气候问题,由中央政府制定并实施的农村能源政策倡导农户使用多种清洁能源及技术。同时,商品能源逐步成为当下农户生活能源的重要组成部分。“并举式”的能源政策是否造成甚至扩大不同能源、技术的需求差异,这一结果是否符合政策的初衷和目标?基于此,论文研究并分析2005—2014年农村能源政策以及收入水平对农户生活能源需求的影响。结果表明：政策的实施加剧了存在替代关系的能源、技术需求间的此消彼长;政策的溢出效应促进了部分商品能源需求;收入的提高对部分能源需求产生了正向作用。建议制定兼顾清洁能源以及商品能源的农村能源发展战略和政策,实现政策的精准发力,同时加强能源基础设施的建设和管理。     

基于生态足迹的中国可持续食物消费模式

随着人们饮食需求的不断多样化,可持续食物消费已成为一个全球关注的重要议题。为了探寻可持续的食物消费模式,重点分析了中国食物消费结构演变趋势及特征,运用生态足迹模型量化中国食物消费结构的环境压力动态变化;基于可持续食物消费的内涵,结合中国均衡膳食和环境的可持续性指标,构建食物生态承载级别衡量标准,并据此建立了符合中国食物消费习惯、满足营养摄入需求、环境压力小的可持续食物消费模式。结果显示：中国食物消费生态环境压力不断增大,1978-2013年中国食物消费人均生态足迹增长了154.49%,2008年出现生态赤字,2013年赤字值为0.0705 ghm²;食物生态承载级别持续恶化,2008年生态承载级别由“较高”下降到“中等”;可持续食物消费模式的构建使得人均生态足迹下降了12.92%,表明转变食物消费模式是解决食物消费生态环境压力这一矛盾问题的最有效途径。     

SO2 and NOx emissions due to fossil ruel combustion in Saudi Arabia: A preliminary inventory

Phenomenal economic growth during the last two decades, as a result of oil wealth, has led to a dramatic increase in the demand for fossil fuel in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). In this paper a preliminary inventory for sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emitted into the atmosphere as a result of fossil fuel combustion by various economic sectors in KSA in the year 1986 is presented. Emissions are discussed in relation to major source categories (major fuel consuming economic sectors) and on the basis of type of fuel combusted. The data are also geographically disaggregated according to major economic and population centers in KSA in order to show the spatial distribution of emissions. Also, SO₂ and NO_x emission trends (1971–1990) were estimated from 1986 data and historical and projected fuel consumption figures.