Integrated scenario modelling of energy,greenhouse gas emissions and forestry

Preventing dangerous climate change requires actions on several sectors. Mitigation strategies have focused primarily on energy, because fossil fuels are the main source of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Another important sector recently gaining more attention is the forest sector. Deforestation is responsible for approximately one fifth of the global emissions, while growing forests sequester and store significant amounts of carbon. Because energy and forest sectors and climate change are highly interlinked, their interactions need to be analysed in an integrated framework in order to better understand the consequences of different actions and policies, and find the most effective means to reduce emissions. This paper presents a model, which integrates energy use, forests and greenhouse gas emissions and describes the most important linkages between them. The model is applied for the case of Finland, where integrated analyses are of particular importance due to the abundant forest resources, major forest carbon sink and strong linkage with the energy sector. However, the results and their implications are discussed in a broader perspective. The results demonstrate how full integration of all net emissions into climate policy could increase the economic efficiency of climate change mitigation. Our numerical scenarios showed that enhancing forest carbon sinks would be a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy than using forests for bioenergy production, which would imply a lower sink. However, as forest carbon stock projections involve large uncertainties, their full integration to emission targets can introduce new and notable risks for mitigation strategies.     

Minimising emissions and energy wastage by improved industrial processes and integration of renewable energy

This article provides an introduction to this Special Issue of Journal of Cleaner Production (JCLP), which contains thirteen, carefully selected articles from the 12th Conference, “Process Integration, Modelling and Optimisation for Energy Saving and Pollution Reduction” – PRES'09. This issue builds upon the multi-year co-operation between the PRES conference planners and the JCLP. The articles cover important subjects of increased efficiency in energy generation and usage and in improvements in industrial process optimisation. The first group of five papers focuses upon recent advances in emissions reduction and the resulting energy penalties. The second group of four papers deals with improving the efficiency and reliability in the utilisation of renewable energy, where hydrogen and biodiesel are the key energy carriers. The final group of three papers focus on process integration challenges of sustainable energy systems and upon the challenges of industrial/societal integration of sustainable energy systems into regional sustainable development planning.     

广东省居民生活直接能源消费大气污染物与温室气体排放趋势研究

居民生活直接能源消费是重要的大气污染物和温室气体排放来源,识别其历史排放趋势是科学制定管控策略的基础.然而目前我国尚缺乏省级尺度居民生活能源消费排放趋势的研究.以广东省为研究对象,通过广泛收集居民生活直接能源消费数据和排放因子,建立了2006—2017年广东省居民生活直接能源消费大气污染物和温室气体排放清单,并采用情景分析法量化了能源结构变化对居民生活直接能源消费大气污染物与温室气体排放的影响.结果表明：①2006—2017年居民生活直接能源消费排放的大气污染物和温室气体均呈下降趋势,CO、PM_2.5、BC、OC、CH₄、CO₂和N₂O排放量分别下降70%、59%、59%、66%、77%、30%和73%;②城乡贡献上,乡村居民生活直接能源消费是大气 污染物和温室气体排放的主要来源,排放分担率分别在70%和60%以上;③空间分布上,2017年广东省居民生活直接能源消费大气污染物和温室气体排放主要集中在粤东、粤西传统燃料消费量较高的地区,以及广州、东莞和深圳等人口密度较大的城市地区;④能源结构清洁化所致的2006—2017年广东省居民生活直接能源消费大气污染物和温室气体减排比例为38%~88%;⑤以2025年为目标年,居民生活能源结构持续清洁化发展能够进一步降低居民生活直接能源消费大气污染物和温室气体排放,尤其对CO、PM_2.5、BC、CH₄和N₂O的减排比例均在80%以上.     

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuel demand and solar energy conversion efficiency in European bioethanol production for automotive purposes

Crop derived biofuels such as (bio)ethanol are increasingly applied for automotive purposes. They have, however, a relatively low efficiency in converting solar energy into automotive power. The outcome of life cycle studies concerning ethanol as to fossil fuel inputs and greenhouse gas emissions associated with such inputs depend strongly on the assumptions made regarding e.g. allocation, inclusion of upstream processes and estimates of environmentally relevant in- and outputs. Peer reviewed studies suggest that CO₂ emissions linked to life cycle fossil fuel input are typically about 2.1–3.0 kg CO₂ kg⁻¹ starch-derived ethanol. When biofuel production involves agricultural practices that are common in Europe there are net losses of carbon from soil and emissions of the greenhouse gas N₂O. Dependent on choices regarding allocation, they may, for wheat (starch) be in the order of 0.6–2.5 kg CO₂ equivalent kg⁻¹ of ethanol. This makes ethanol derived from starch, or sugar crops, in Europe still less attractive for mitigating climate change. In case of wheat, changes in agricultural practice may reduce or reverse carbon loss from soils. When biofuel production from crops leads to expansion of cropland while reducing forested areas or grassland, added impetus will be given to climate change.     

A high-definition spatially explicit modelling approach for national greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes: reducing the errors and uncertainties in global emission modelling

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - Industrial processes cause significant emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere and, therefore, have high mitigation and...     

Life Cycle Assessment of fossil energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese pear production

A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was performed to analyze environmental consequences of different pear production chains in terms of fossil energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission in China. The assessment identified hotspots that contributed significantly to the environmental impacts of pear production from the cradle to the point of sale. The results showed that GHG emissions and fossil energy use varied in the different production chains because the environmental performance does not associate with the farming systems (i.e. organic vs. conventional), but is co-determined by farm topography and thus machinery use, by market demands to seasonality of products and thus the need for storage, and by local farming practices including manure management. The LCA could be used as a tool to guide selections of agricultural inputs with the aim of reducing environmental impacts. The results of the LCA analysis indicate that a list of choices are available to reduce energy use and GHG emission in the pear production chain, namely substitution of the traditional storage systems by an efficiently controlled atmosphere storage system, using manure for biogas production, conversion from the conventional farming to organic farming, and reduction of mechanical cultivation.     

Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions in China and the abatement measures

The major emission sources of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and CFCs in China have been identified, and the emission trends has been estimated. Besides fossil fuel combustion, human respiration and biomass burning are important sources. Some feasible abatement measures on energy conservation, afforestation and biomass recycling have been discussed.     

High-resolution spatial distribution of greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector

The development of high-resolution greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories is an important step towards emission reduction in different sectors. However, most of the spatially explicit approaches that have been developed to date produce outputs at a coarse resolution or do not disaggregate the data by sector. In this study, we present a methodology for assessing GHG emissions from the residential sector by settlements at a fine spatial resolution. In many countries, statistical data about fossil fuel consumption is only available at the regional or country levels. For this reason, we assess energy demand for cooking and water and space heating for each settlement, which we use as a proxy to disaggregate regional fossil fuel consumption data. As energy demand for space heating depends heavily on climatic conditions, we use the heating degree day method to account for this phenomenon. We also take the availability of energy sources and differences in consumption patterns between urban and rural areas into account. Based on the disaggregated data, we assess GHG emissions at the settlement level using country and regional specific coefficients for Poland and Ukraine, two neighboring countries with different energy usage patterns. In addition, we estimate uncertainties in the results using a Monte Carlo method, which takes uncertainties in the statistical data, calorific values, and emission factors into account. We use detailed data on natural gas consumption in Poland and biomass consumption for several regions in Ukraine to validate our approach. We also compare our results to data from the EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), which shows high agreement in places but also demonstrates the advantage of a higher resolution GHG inventory. Overall, the results show that the approach developed here is universal and can be applied to other countries using their statistical information.

     

垃圾热化学转化利用过程中碳排放的两种计算方法

为了明确城市生活垃圾焚烧和热解两种热化学方式处理过程中温室气体的排放量(简称"碳排放"或GHG),分别采用生命周期评价方法(LCA)和政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)制定的2006国家温室气体排放清单指南(简称"IPCC2006指南")进行了核算,并计算了两种垃圾热化学处理方式相对于填埋处理的GHG减排量.结果表明,两种核算方法计算所得的不同垃圾处理方式的碳排放趋势基本一致,但基于IPCC2006指南计算出的GHG减排量高于LCA方法的计算结果.相对填埋处理而言,焚烧处理的GHG减排量从LCA法的597～660kg(以CO2当量计,下同)提高到IPCC2006指南法的648～747kg;垃圾热解发电的GHG减排量从LCA法的535kg提高到IPCC2006指南法的589kg.同时,对这两种核算方法的特点及在我国的适用性进行了分析,研究认为LCA法和IPCC2006指南可以结合使用以促进我国GHG核算机制的完善.     

中国温室气体排放增长的结构分解分析

利用结构分解分析(SDA)的加权平均分解法分析了4类增长因素对1992~2007年中国温室气体排放变化的影响.结果表明:总体上,最终需求规模扩大是引起排放增长的主要因素,其次是投入产出结构的改变,温室气体排放强度降低是减缓排放量的主要因素,最终需求结构改变对排放量变化的影响不明显.从部门角度看,建筑业和机械、电气、电子设备制造业是隐含温室气体排放增加的主要来源.从变化趋势看,2002~2007年温室气体排放增幅明显高于其他时期,出口和固定资本形成的大幅增长是推动这一时期排放增长的主要原因.     

Opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from households in Nigeria

Efforts to mitigate climate threats should not exclude the household as the household is a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through its consumption patterns. This paper derives an emission index that could be used to estimate inventories of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from kerosene combustion for lighting in Nigeria and also looks at the implications of solar pv lighting replacing kerosene lamp in Nigeria. Findings indicate that (1) average CO₂ emissions from kerosene combustion for lighting in Nigeria is about 0.06 kg per hour per lamp, which can be taken as the kerosene lamp CO₂ emission index for Nigeria. (2) about 3 × 10W_p solar pv will be required to replace a kerosene lamp, while about 0.124 tonnes of CO₂ will be avoided per lamp per year, operating at 6 h daily. At the national level, under the kerosene lamp replacement projection assumptions made, between 0.4 and 1.0 million tonnes of CO₂ will be avoided per year. The household investment required to owe a solar pv, including the capital cost of switching from kerosene lamp, is about US356, while the national capital investment outlay is between 1,138.265 and US356, while the national capital investment outlay is between 1,138.265 and US2,848 million. (3) Certified Emission Reduction (CER) units, assuming CO₂ is traded, will generate significant annual revenues on the order of 6.96 to almost US17.4 million per year, while earnings from unspent household kerosene fuel could amount to between 2,520 and US17.4 million per year, while earnings from unspent household kerosene fuel could amount to between 2,520 and US6,300 million over the life span of the solar pv. The micro-economic assessment carried out indicates the non-attractiveness of solar pv use at the household level, and (4) to promote solar pv use, both long and short term policy measures that aim at cost reduction were suggested. The paper concludes that, factoring the suggested measures into the climate, energy, and financial policy decision discourse in Nigeria could empower the households to play a significant role in achieving global CO₂ emission reduction, but at the local level.     

Simulating the future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of Turkish cement industry up to 2030 in a global context

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - Turkey ranked seventh among cement-producing countries in the world, and the country is also one of the extensive producers in the world...     

Reduction of urban heat island and associated greenhouse gas emissions

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - The reduction of urban heat island (UHI) and carbon emission is of great importance for thermal environment of urban residential areas. This...     

Does the Swedish consumer's choice of food influence greenhouse gas emissions?

Consumer's choice of food can influence the environment. In Sweden, in common with many other countries, consumers need to be given information so they can make environmentally informed shopping choices. However, what is the most advantageous dietary choice to lower greenhouse emissions? This study investigates the greenhouse gas emissions associated with food production for food consumed in Sweden annually. Specifically, this study compares greenhouse gas emissions associated with a nutritionally and environmentally sustainable diet with the average consumption of food in Sweden 1999. The study concludes that the change in energy use and greenhouse gas emission associated with this change of diet is negligible. Lowering greenhouse gas emissions by changing food production processes results in more profound changes than teaching consumers to make environmentally correct choices. There is a basic need for a reduction or a replacement of the use of fossil fuels to produce and distribute our food in order to reach any significant reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases. Swedish agricultural policy does not provide ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In Sweden therefore there is an immediate need to design policy instruments with the primary aim of reducing the greenhouse effect.     

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in European conventional and organic dairy farming

Dairy farming is the largest agricultural source of the greenhouse gases methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) in Europe. A whole-farm modeling approach was used to investigate promising mitigation measures. The effects of potential mitigation measures were modeled to obtain estimates of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from representative dairy model farms in five European regions. The potential to reduce farm GHG emissions was calculated per kg milk to compare organic and conventional production systems and to investigate region and system specific differences. An optimized lifetime efficiency of dairy cows reduced GHG emissions by up to 13% compared to baseline model farms. The evaluation of frequent removal of manure from animal housing into outside covered storage reduced farm GHG emissions by up to 7.1%. Scraping of fouled surfaces per se was not an effective option since the reduction in GHG emissions from animal housing was more than out-weighed by increased emissions from the storage and after field application. Manure application by trail hose and injection, respectively, was found to reduce farm GHG emissions on average by 0.7 and 3.2% compared to broadcasting. The calculated model scenarios for anaerobic digestion demonstrated that biogas production could be a very efficient and cost-effective option to reduce GHG emissions. The efficiency of this mitigation measure depends on the amount and quality of organic matter used for co-digestion, and how much of the thermal energy produced is exploited. A reduction of GHG emissions by up to 96% was observed when all thermal energy produced was used to substitute fossil fuels. Potential measures and strategies were scaled up to the level of European regions to estimate their overall mitigation potential. The mitigation potential of different strategies based on a combination of measures ranged from −25 up to −105% compared to baseline model farms. A full implementation of the most effective strategy could result in a total GHG emission reduction of about 50 Mt of carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalents per year for conventional dairy farms of EU(15) comparable to the defined model farms.     

我国饮食结构变化对农业温室气体排放的影响

从食物消费端入手,研究饮食结构变化对农业温室气体排放的影响.研究显示我国食物消费呈现出动物性食物替代粮食消费的趋势,动物性食物的温室气体排放系数是植物性食物的7倍以上.1990~2010年人均食物消费相关的温室气体排放增长了39%,肉类消费已成为食物消费中最大的温室气体排放来源,且还将持续增长.当我国人均收入达到2010年美国水平时,世界平均肉类消费水平、高肉类消费水平、低肉类消费水平和营养均衡消费水平四种情景下,人均肉类消费的温室气体排放将比2010年分别增长47.8%、119.9%、4.8%、-29.6%.我国食物消费应当提倡在保障均衡营养摄入的前提下,适当减少肉类消费,达到温室气体减排、资源节约、污染减排的协同效应.     

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions by anaerobic digestion of cattle slurry

Biogas treatment of animal manures is an upcoming technology because it is a way of producing renewable energy (biogas). However, little is known about effects of this management strategy on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during fermentation, storage, and field application of the substrates compared to untreated slurries. In this study, we compared cattle slurry and cattle slurry with potato starch as additive during the process of fermentation, during storage and after field application. The addition of potato starch strongly enhanced CH₄ production from 4230 l CH₄ m⁻³ to 8625 l CH₄ m⁻³ in the fermenter at a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 29 days. Extending the HRT to 56 days had only a small effect on the CH₄ production. Methane emissions from stored slurry depended on storage temperature and were highest from unfermented slurry followed by the slurry/starch mixture. Gas emissions from untreated and fermented slurry during storage were further analyzed in a pilot-scale experiment with different levels of covering such as straw cover, a wooden lid and no cover. Emissions of greenhouse gases (CH₄, N₂O, NH₃) were in the range of 14.3–17.1 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³ during winter (100 day storage period) and 40.5–90.5 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³ during summer (140 day storage period). A straw cover reduced NH₃ losses, but not overall GHG emissions, whereas a solid cover reduced CH₄ and NH₃ emissions. After field application, there were no significant differences between slurry types in GHG emissions (4.15–8.12 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³ a⁻¹). GHG emissions from slurry stores were more important than emissions after field application. Co-digestion of slurry with additives such as starch has a large potential to substitute fossil energy by biogas. On a biogas plant, slurry stores should be covered gas-tight in order to eliminate GHG emissions and collect CH₄ for electricity production.     

Balancing of greenhouse gas emissions and economic efficiency for biogas-production through anaerobic co-fermentation of slurry with organic waste

Using the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) for biogas production might contribute to greenhouse gas mitigation, but emissions linked with biogas production can reduce these beneficial effects. Therefore the emissions of NH₃, CH₄ and N₂O and costs caused by treating OFMSW by co-fermentation with slurry were calculated in detail from literature data, and strategies for reducing emissions were evaluated. Emission factors were calculated for single gases during storage and after application. The sensitivity of the calculations concerning the organic dry matter content of OFMSW, retention time and CH₄-yield was analyzed. The anaerobic co-fermentation of OFMSW increased biogas yields and contributed to the reduction of CO₂ emissions with 32 to 152 kg CO₂ t⁻¹ organic waste depending on application and storage techniques used for the fermentation residues. Considering a payment of 0.1 €/kWh for the electricity produced, the costs for utilization of OFMSW in slurry based biogas plants were calculated to range between 34 and 38 € t⁻¹. Measures for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions by covering the fermentation residue stores proved to be more cost effective with 3–31 € t⁻¹ CO₂ compared to immediate harrowing or injecting the residues during field application.